Jack Clayton
Washington at Stanford
Pick: Washington
A huge Pac-12 North showdown! The Cardinal (4-0 Pac-12) now enters the heart of its schedule, starting here with Washington (3-0 Pac 12). Washington (5-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) Coach Steve Sarakasian runs a pro-style attack with junior QB Keith Price (21 TDs, 3 INTs) and RB Chris Polk, averaging 36 points and 251 yards passing. The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Play Washington.
Jimmy Moore
USC @ Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -9
The Irish have been very strong on offense all season long especially since they stopped hurting themselves with turnovers in the red zone. They have had an extra week to prepare for this game and have looked very strong at home after the South Florida debacle in game 1. USC is ineligible for post season play which has to have them less motivated to play this season and their defense has been torched 2 of the last 3 weeks. Lay this number with the Fighting Irish.
Bob Balfe
Wisconsin/Michigan State Over 49.5
You could switch the uniforms on each team and nobody would know it as they are almost identical. Both teams are sporting good defenses, but I think its more of who they have played not that they are really that good. The Badgers have a great offensive line and this is the true definition of a stacked offense. There are just so many weapons I do not think the LSU or Alabama Defense could contain this team. Michigan State has been playing together a lot longer with their starting QB and have just as good as an offense. Both teams have two duel threat running backs, great quarterbacks and good receivers. This should be the best game of the night to watch and should be very high scoring. Take the Over.
John Ryan
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State
5* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Wisconsin set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that MSU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and I do believe that if they cover the spread they will have won the game straight up. The Spartans defense is very real having played well against elite competition. Wisconsin has truly yet to face a team with both offensive and defensive units as talented and athletic as MSU. The Spartans find themselves in a strong series of game situations noting a 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) record after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 250 or less total yards per game over their last three games since 1992. Wisconsin head coach Bielema is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus excellent defensive teams allowing <=285 yards per game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-9 ATS for 80% winners since 1980. Play on home dogs after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and facing an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. Of the 45 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 23 of them or 51.2% covered the spread by seven or more points. Take the Spartans.
ASA
Penn St / Northwestern Over 47.5
The Northwestern offense received a “kick start” at the start of the Big Ten season as QB Dan Persa was inserted as the starter. He had been recovering from an Achilles injury sustained last season. Since Persa has taken over the reigns the Wildcat offense has taken off. In their three Big Ten games the Cats have averaged 421 yards per game and 30 PPG. Persa is completing 74% of his passes giving NW a threat through the air they didn’t have with Kain Colter as the starting QB. Our feeling is after watching this team very closely the last three weeks, they can put up points on anyone. If you simply look at the point totals that PSU has put up, one may not think the “over” is a smart play here. However, if you dig deeper, you will find that the Nittany Lions have really started to move the ball as of late, it simply isn’t showing on the scoreboard. PSU has only 16 points @ Indiana, but they should have had at least double that based on their statistics. They put up 464 yards in that game meaning they only scored 1-point for every 29 yards gained. To give you an idea of how poor that was, the national average is 1-point for every 15 yards gained. Their next game against Iowa they scored only 13 points but piled up 395 yards. That means 1-point for every 30 yards gained. Again, way below the point total they should have put up based on their yardage. In other words, PSU has been moving the ball up and down the field, just blowing their scoring chances. What better remedy for them than to face a Northwestern defense that has been nearly non-existent as of late. In Big Ten play, NW has allowed 38, 42, & 41 points and the fact that Penn State is moving the ball very well leads us to believe the points will come this week. Penn State put up 35 points on this NW team last year (35-21 final) and current QB’s Matt McGloin and Robert Bolden combined to put up 278 yards passing and 4 TD’s. That should give them some serious confidence heading into this game. Weather in the Midwest is always key this time of year however the forecast for Saturday as of this posting calls for temps near 60 degrees and light winds. Perfect “scoring” weather. We’ll keep an eye on this as the week progresses.
WUNDERDOG
Nashville at Calgary
Pick: Nashville +120
The Nashville Predators have spent a lot of time on the road to open the season, and stand at 2-2. They won their two-game season opening road set, and now have lost a pair on this trip which ends tonight. I expect them to bring a lot of energy to this one, and return home with a win. Calgary has had mixed results at home to start the season at 1-1-1, but they have been outscored in the three contests on home ice by a 9-7 count. Nashville has skated well as a road dog going back to last year as they have now won four of their last five in this situation. This has been a road-dominated series, with the visiting team collecting the 2 points in six of the last eight meetings. With Calgary not showing much of an advantage in home ice, I'm backing Nashville. Play on the Predators.
O.C. Dooley
North Carolina State +5
You will see later in this analysis that visiting North Carolina State has both a head coach and starting quarterback who actually have a connection to Virginia’s campus. Even though they are playing in front of their own home fans today is actually a tough spot emotionally for Virginia who just a week ago pulled off a stunning upset of then 12th-ranked Georgia Tech. Following this contest that Cavaliers have the excitement of participating in a Thursday ESPN primetime contest where they will visit Miami-Florida in what could be called a showcase came for a program that has struggled in recent campaigns. While Virginia is in an emotional “letdown” spot, today is a critical game for North Carolina State whose chances a participating in a postseason Bowl contest ride heavily on the outcome. The Wolfpack need 3 more wins to become Bowl-eligible and their remaining schedule indicates achieving that feat may be difficult. What North Carolina State does have in this situation is the benefit of EXTRA preparation time as it has been two full weeks since last taking the field. From that I have been able to find out the visiting Wolfpack comes into this game relatively HEALTHY which is not the case for Virginia who already have 4 different players either out indefinitely or lost for the season. The Cavaliers list a pair of other players as “doubtful” for today’s contest which hurts thins their roster. Today marks the first time that current NC State head coach Tom O’Brien has visited Virginia since way back in 1997 when he stepped down as Cavaliers offensive coordinator to become a head coach. Meanwhile current NC State starting quarterback Mike Glennon actually grew up 90 miles from the Virginia campus and will have plenty of support in the stands. Glennon has already played once inside Virginia’s home stadium as a senior high school quarterback who led his team to a state championship. As mentioned earlier Virginia is coming off a stunning upset win (as a 7’ point underdog) while North Carolina State has had the benefit of a bye-week to get healthy. In head coach Tom O’Brien’s career he is an incredible 17-4 ATS when facing an opponent coming off an underdog outright upset. With O’Brien at the helm North Carolina State is UNDEFEATED where it counts (6-0 ATS) when off a bye week
ZACH SPARAZZA
Southern Miss Eagles -3
There will certainly be some points scored in this one, but the edge goes to Southern Miss because they are much better at taking care of the ball, as SMU is sloppy and their defense doesn’t create takeaways. Southern Miss runs the ball much better than SMU, and SMU hasn’t stopped the run against good teams this season. This is the biggest game of the season for Southern Miss, as they come off a bye week after 4 straight wins. They put 63 on the board in their last game, a 63-35 win over Navy, while SMU played well in a 38-17 win over UCF (a team that has fallen off the map after a 26-24 loss to UAB Thursday). Southern Miss averages 38.7 points per game, good for 18th nationally, but they only give up 22 per game, which is 36th nationally. This Golden Eagles team is good because of their balanced offense, as they gain 262 through the air and 212 on the ground—both very impressive numbers that are top 30 and top 20 nationally. SMU has had their struggles on the road under June Jones, although this is obviously his best team yet since being there, as he has steadily built another program that was dead upon his arrival. Hattiesburg will all be in attendance for this nationally televised game on CBS College. I think Southern Miss wins because of their ability to run the ball, and coupled with SMU’s one-dimensional run and shoot offense, Southern Miss takes this huge C-USA matchup. Win 20 units and lay the points.
Northwestern Wildcats +4.5
Penn State is as hot as anyone, but looking deeper it is their defense that has saved them time and time again. While Northwestern has had their struggles lately with 4 straight losses, I expect a huge performance Saturday night in front of a big crowd at Ryan Field. Northwestern has lost some tough, close games, but the key is they have been in every game with the exception of two weeks ago where there 24-14 lead over Michigan turned into a 42-24 loss. Northwestern averages 181 yards per game on the ground—something Penn State hasn’t faced all year. This Nittany Lions defense is strong, but Northwestern puts points on the board at home, and Penn State’s anemic offense will have a tough time keeping up. Penn State still hasn’t figured out their quarterback situation, and putting up 23 points against Purdue at home is a 23-18 squeaker didn’t solve any problems. This team was lucky to slip by with a 16-10 win at Indiana, as well as in a 13-3 home win vs Iowa. Penn State only averages 21.7 points per game, only 17.3 in Big 10 play, and if they do that tonight—they will have their first Big 10 loss. Take the home dog with Northwestern, a team always good for a big home upset, with the points for 10 units.
Vancouver Canucks -200
Philadelphia Flyers -180