Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 2,2010

Bettorsworld

Florida +8 over Alabama

HC Urban Meyer knows this week means one thing. It's time for his Florida Gators to do battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide yet again. The last meeting between these two came just a year ago in the SEC Title Game. Both teams were undefeated, but the Crimson Tide rolled on Tim Tebow and company by a score of 32-13. Alabama will host this game. HC Nick Saban's team narrowly escaped a tough Arkansas team last week. Things won't get any easier against the Gators. Florida surely hasn't forgotten the spanking Alabama delivered last year. They will seek revenge as 8 point underdogs.

The Florida Gators are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road. This has been an extremely profitable angle. However, they are 0-3-2 in their last five road games ATS, and just 1-5 ATS when playing Alabama. The Crimson Tide is 3-1 against the spread so far in 2010. It's certainly been a long time since the Gators have been underdogs. Both teams have experienced drastic change since they last met so it's tough to gauge how they will fare against one another.

Florida improved drastically in their last game against Kentucky at the Swamp. They were lacking an offensive weapon prior to this game, but it appears they have found one in freshman Trey Burton. The Venice, FL native broke Tim Tebow's record for TDs in a game by finding the end zone a whopping 6 times. He ran it in five times, and caught a TD pass. The freshman also completed a 42 yard pass. This is one of the best debuts we've seen from a college player since, well, Tim Tebow!

Can we expect him to be nearly as good? Don't get your hopes up. However, he could be a catalyst to an offense that hasn't blown any pundits away in 2010. QB John Brantley has been doing better with each game, and RB Jeff Demps is lightning fast. Demps is slightly injured, but will play. It is unclear to what extent the leg injury will affect his game.

Alabama's offense features an excellent QB in Greg McElroy. It took him a while to step up and play to his potential, but he reached that point in the late stages of 2009. He enters this game after a poor showing against Arkansas, but he's rebounded from bad games in the past. RB Mark Ingram ran up the Razorbacks for 157 yards and 2 TDs last week. Backup Trent Richardson had 85 yards on 10 carries. It will be important to work him into the game as Florida's stout defense takes its toll on Ingram.

The Crimson Tide dominated opposing teams in 2009 with high flying and nasty defense. They have been just as good in 2010 despite losing key starters. The secondary was able to get in Ryan Mallett's head and pick him off 3 times last week. That's incredible considering he is a Heisman candidate and widely considered to be one of the best QBs in the FBS. While the defense has been great at producing turnovers, they haven't sacked the QB much. They have only 4 total sacks thus far in 2010.

The Gators defense has been dominant in 2010. They held Miami, OH to just 211 yards of total offense while intercepting the RedHawks QB 4 times. The offense was so abysmal in that game that they may have been in jeopardy of losing if not for the defense. When the Gators played rival Tennessee they were able to sack the QB 6 times. This defense can stop the run, but they haven't faced anything close to Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram this year. The game could be in the hands of the defense.

The revenge angle is one of the most powerful in college football. You can't use it blindly of course. No matter how badly a team like, say, Duke would like to avenge their loss to Alabama, they have no shot. A team has to be capable of revenge. I think we all know, the Florida Gators are plenty capable. You're getting an inflated line due to the Gators slow start and apparent early season struggles. But heck, they are still 4-0 and no one has come within two touchdowns of them.

The Gators have literally been working on this game, specifically, stopping the run, since they were hammered last year in the SEC Title game for 251 yards on the ground. This quote sums it up. “It was a nasty taste last year with the loss,” defensive tackle Jaye Howard said. “And this offseason was dedicated to beating Alabama.”

This line opened Alabama -9 and is now -8. The move from 9 to 8 doesn't bother us, but you want the +8, so don't wait. Florida +8

Stanford +7 over Oregon

The Oregon Ducks had a great year in 2009. They earned a trip to the Rose Bowl after winning the Pacific 10 with their final victory coming over Oregon State in the "Civil War" game. It was tough to gauge how much they would fall off this year with the loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli. So far, it appears they are even better. The Ducks are 4-0 and ranked #4 in the nation. They have blown out most of their opponents, but they have their toughest test to date this week when the Stanford Cardinal travel to play them. The Cardinal are also 4-0 and ranked #9 by the AP. Both of these teams have looked unstoppable, but something has got to give. Oregon is a 7 point favorite.

Sports Insights

Virginia Tech vs. NC State

After an embarrassing loss to James Madison, Virginia Tech has begun to play more like the Hokies we know and love. Following a blowout of East Carolina, Bud Foster's defense dominated Boston College, allowing only 70 yards rushing, while forcing three turnovers, in Tech's 19-0 road win over the Eagles.

NC State's surprising 4-0 start has propelled them to the top of the ACC Atlantic Division standings. Quarterback Russell Wilson has led the way for the Wolfpack, throwing for 1112 yards and 11 touchdowns, compared to only one interception on the season.

Virginia Tech opened as a 6-point favorite at CRIS and the betting public has taken notice of NC State's undefeated record. Seventy-two percent of spread bets and 78% of moneyline wagers have fallen on the Pack, shrinking the line to -3.5 across the sports marketplace. Although the public is backing NC State, Sports Insights' Betting Systems have found value on Virginia Tech, triggering five positive Smart Money Plays and two positive Steam Moves on the Hokies.

We like this value, prompting us to take Virginia Tech and give the points.

Virginia Tech -3.5

Penn State vs. Iowa

In last week's game, Penn State's defense stepped up when it mattered, allowing Temple to convert only one third down in 11 opportunities. Evan Royster led the way for the Nittany Lions' offense, rushing for a career-high 187 yards in the 9-point win.

Iowa rebounded from a tough loss to Arizona by blowing out Ball State last week. The Hawkeyes dominated both sides of the ball, outgaining the Cardinals by 450 total yards.

Iowa opened as a 4.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 78% of spread bets and 64% of moneyline wagers. These percentages have pushed the line to -7 across the sports marketplace. This added value on the underdog has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move at WSEX (7-1, +5.4 units) on Penn State.

In our final game of the week, we're fading a massive public favorite, following the Smart Money and will take Penn State to keep it close.

Penn State +7

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Boise St. at New Mexico St.
Prediction: Boise St.
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Lay the points with Boise State on Saturday as they will value each and every one of the "style points" they can muster against a New Mexico State defense that is allowing 41.7 PPG. The Aggies' defense limited their opponents to just 202 passing YPG last season but that number has skyrocketed to 276 YPG this year. New Mexico State ranks 119th in nation by allowing 519.7 YPG which is very bad news when now facing the potent Broncos' offense that averages 40.3 PPG and over 500 YPG. The Aggies' anemic offense that is gaining less than 300 YPG will struggle to move the ball against the Boise State defense that ranks 3rd in FBS with their 228.7 YPG average. The fact that Boise State has done all this against strong BCS-conference representatives (Virginia Tech and Oregon State) is very impressive. Now they start padding their numbers. Lay the points.

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Penn State at Iowa
Play: Penn State
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I like Penn State in this matchup for a wide array of reasons and see them with a solid opportunity for a straight up win. Here is a supporting money line system that has produced a 33-13 record for 72% winners since 2005. Play on a road team using the money line with an excellent defense allowing 285 or less total yards per game and after out gaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games.
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Penn State (3-1, 1-2 ATS) travels to their new Big-10 nemesis Iowa (3-1, 1-2 ATS). Penn State has played a far tougher schedule than Iowa has to date. They have played at number one Alabama losing 24-3 and were installed as 14 point dogs. They have also played a vastly under rated squad from Philadelphia in Temple. Iowa has played three teams that offer no competitive measure whatsoever in Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, and Ball State, who they defeated 45-0 last week as 28 point favorites. The only real measure was Game 3 at Arizona, who they lost too 34-27 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs.
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In the three games against inferior opponents Iowa averaged 237 rushing yards per game. Against Arizona they rushed for 29 yards on 26 carries. Penn State will be able to stop the run and then get pressure on Iowa senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who has a history of forcing balls into coverage when pressured. He may be 21-5 as a starter, but he has thrown 25 interceptions too. I strongly believe that Penn State will get the timely turnovers necessary to win this game.
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The most favorable matchup for PSU is in the passing game and true freshman Robert Bolden. Iowa is going to concern themselves with the run first and will have their defensive ends playing run and clogging seams. This will open up play action pass immediately at the start of the game and Penn State will have some deep out patterns to wide receivers and routes to the tight end down the middle.
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Bolden also led Penn State on a fourth-quarter 96 yard scoring drive against Temple and those are the drives that become the foundation for greatness. He converted two, third pass plays, and was three for four for 59 yards during the drive. Quarterback coach Jay Paterno has loosened up the offense and Bolden is now free to be, as he stated, ?a game changer as opposed to a game manager?. Bolden will have a great game and will limit his mistakes. Penn State will cover. Consider adding a 3* amount using the generous money line as well.

Louisville vs. Arkansas State
Play: Louisville -5.5

5* graded play on Louisville. Both teams are off to rocky starts with Louisville posting a 1-2 record covering just one and Arkansas State posting a 1-3 record, but has covered three of those four games. Louisville played well last week in their first road test at Oregon State losing 35-28 and easily covered the 20 1/2 point spread. Louisville has had a solid running game that has opened up the passing game, but seven turnovers had a negative impact on their games. Arkansas State has been involved in four straight high scoring affairs and they have displayed a very strong running game in the last two weeks gaining 447 yards on 95 carries. Louisville returns eight offensive starters including quarterback Froman. This veteran unit will be able to control the ball and establish long scoring drives. Louisville will score more than 28 points in this game. Arkansas State is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisville.

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Kent State vs. Miami Ohio
Play: Kent State -3
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The MAC opener takes place for both Miami Ohio and Kent St. and it is a welcomed game for both. The RedHawks already have more wins than all of last season, two, but they were not very impressive as they outgained the two foes by a total of only 16 yards. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off two tough games on the road at Penn St. and Boston College but those games help heading into this one despite losing both. The line has completely reversed itself as early sharp money rolled in on the Golden Flashes. The Kent St. defense is a very under the radar unit. Last season the Golden Flashes finished 51st in total defense and 40th in scoring defense and with seven starters back, improvement was expected and we have already seen it. Kent St. is currently 22nd in total defense including first in the nation in rushing defense, allowing just 61.3 ypg. The Golden Flashes possess three playmakers on defense, one at each level and defensive end Monte Simmons will be returning this week after breaking his left fibula in the season opener. Miami Ohio was horrible on offense a season ago and things are not much better this season. The RedHawks finished 84th overall and 116th in scoring in 2009 and in 2010, they are 107th overall and 92nd in scoring. The problem here is that they are going to have a tough time against the Kent St. stop unit. Miami has gone from a wide-open, pass oriented offense in 2009 to a careful, run-first attack this year and that is not going to get better against the Golden Flashes. Offensively, Kent St. has struggled the last two weeks, but let’s face it; taking on Penn St. and Boston College will bog down most offenses. The passing game has been decent behind quarterback Spencer Keith who played well as a true freshman a year ago when he filled in for then starter Giorgio Morgan. He has picked up the West Coast offense very well and will get another weapon back this week. Running back Eugene Jarvis should be back as the sixth-year senior sat out the last two games with a groin injury suffered in a season-opening win over Murray St. Defensively, Miami Ohio has been pretty solid this season as it is 43rd in the country in total defense but the weakness falls into the strength of the Golden Flashes and that is passing. The RedHawks are 76th in passing defense but more importantly are 94th in passing efficiency defense. They are allowing opponents to complete 65.6 percent of their passes. Miami Ohio has been very good against the run but despite the solid overall numbers, it is allowing 29 ppg on the season. Kent St. falls into a solid situation as well. Play against home teams that scored 14 points or fewer in their last game going up against an opponent that scored nine points or fewer in its last game. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Miami Ohio is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 42 or more points, losing those games by an average of 22.2 ppg. 3* Kent St. Golden Flashes

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Stanford vs. Oregon
Play: Stanford +7
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Like the Cards here off a big win at Notre Dame who is better than their record, and also like Stanfords balanced attack and their QB. Oregon was exposed by an average AZ State team last week who gave them 7 turnovers, who I took and the points in a cover for a premium play and still covered. Lots of hype around this one, but Haurbaugh and his coaching staff seem to really coach up their players for big games. Stanford have covered their last 4 road games by a total of 118 points! Not sold on the Ducks who have not played anyone of substance yet. This is a huge game, both teams will be up for it, a see - saw batttle in this one on ABC, I like the dog.
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A Teaser with added points on Saturday
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NCAA 2 Team 6 Point Teaser
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Tease Michigan State up to +8 and Tease Baylor down to -3 and Play a half unit.

Sean Higgs

TCU vs. Colorado State
Play: TCU -33.5

The Rams are a terrible bunch. Rams are 0-6 ATS last 5 conference games and 1-9 ATS last 10 overall. TCU rolled this bunch 44-6 last year, and I can't see it being any more competive today.

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Kentucky vs. Mississippi
Play: Kentucky +3
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Kentucky just can’t beat Florida. Counting last week’s 48-14 whipping in The Swamp, the Wildcats have now dropped 24 straight to the Gators. UK first-year head coach Joker Phillips said his team addressed the blemish, learned from it and they’re ready to move forward.
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Even though the Blue Grass Cats haven’t tasted a victory in Oxford since 1978, Kentucky has enough talent on both sides of the ball to defeat this erratic Mississippi bunch. The Rebels started out the season with a shocking home loss to Jacksonville State and then rebounded with a win at Tulane. Ole Miss returned home after that and got shocked by Vanderbilt before knocking off Fresno State last Saturday.
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Technically speaking, this is not the spot for Houston Nutt’s troops. Since 1988, Mississippi has been at its worst inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium matched up against a foe that checks in without momentum off a SU and ATS loss posting a horrendous 6-26 ATS record. In this role tackling an opponent that got crushed by 17 points or more last, this team trend crashes to a miserable 2-18 ATS!
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Offensively, UK is a machine this season and is currently ranked 22nd in total offense (avg 461.0 ypg) and 24th in scoring offense (avg 36.8 ppg). The Wildcats should be able to do serious damage matched up against a Rebels stop unit that has surrendered an average of 32.0 points and 346.8 yards per game! Take Kentucky!

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn St. @ Iowa
PICK: Iowa -7
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Iowa has controlled its rivalry with Penn State as the Hawkeyes have won seven of the last eight meetings (while covering the point spread in five of the last six years as well). The physical style of play that Kirk Ferentz demands of his Hawkeyes' team matches up well against the speed-oriented approach that Joe Paterno has gravitated to over the last few years. Iowa has forced a combined fourteen turnovers in its last four encounters with Penn State. Iowa has upset the Nittany Lions in each of the last two seasons, ending Penn State's perfect season in 2008 (Hawkeyes won 24-23 as a 7 1/2-point home dog) and then winning in Happy Valley 21-10 as nine-point dogs last year. The Hawkeyes are the favorite this year (about a TD) and it's well-deserved. I find it difficult to believe that this season's Nittany Lion roster will be able to exorcise the ghosts of the past and defeat Iowa in Iowa City. Joe Pa is relying on a redshirt sophomore QB, Robert Bolden, who has already thrown five interceptions (three on the road against Alabama). Ferentz's club is led by senior QB Ricky Stanzi who is completing 66.7% of his passes for just a yard under 1,000 passing yards, nine TD passes and only one interception this season. Iowa also has a good running back in Adam Robinson who already has produced three 100-yard rushing days this year. Robinson should have a very nice game against a Penn State defense that is a modest 40th in the country by allowing 117.2 rushing YPG. Perhaps the Nittany Lions' problem here is that they replaced all three linebackers from last season's team which is uncharacteristic for a Paterno team with its strong tradition of excellent linebacking corps. Penn State has its own quality running back in Evan Royster who has compiled two straight 1,100 rushing yard seasons. However, Iowa has done an excellent job of shutting Royster down by limiting him to just 3.7 YPC in the games these teams played the last two years. The Penn State rushing attack is now also challenged by the loss of starting right tackle Lou Eliades' season ending knee injury. None of this is good news against an Iowa defense that currently leads the country in yards allowed (227.5 YPG) and is holding the opposition to a mere 12 PPG. Royster will likely continue to have a difficult in finding open spaces against an Iowa defense that ranks 3rd in run defense (65.5 YPG). Both of these teams are 3-1 this season with the Nittany Lions losing 24-3 at Alabama and the Hawkeyes having fallen at Arizona, 34-27. The winner of this game keeps itself in the Big 10 'hunt,' while the loser basically bows out. We KNOW that Iowa KNOWS it can defeat this team and that knowledge will give them an edge here. Someday Penn State will knock off Iowa and exact a slice of revenge against the Hawkeyes' recent mastery over them. This is NOT the team that will accomplish this feat. Paterno's only 2-7 ATS as dog since 2006 and that record doesn't improve in this game.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn St. @ Iowa
PICK: Iowa -7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa has been the right side for the last decade in this series, but they're used to being the team that's under the radar when they face Penn State. This season, the shoe is on the other foot, and I believe the Hawkeyes will do just fine in the role of a one-TD favorite. I'm a big fan of Kirk Ferentz' "send four, drop seven" approach on defense. And that powerful unit will face a young frosh QB when PSU's Robert Bolden steps on the field. He's going to be in for a rude awakening at Nile Kinnick Stadium, especially if the ground game can't get untracked. That very well may be the case with a RB in Evan Royster, who's less than 100% healthy. And it must be noted that Iowa has held Royster to 3.7 yards per carry the last two seasons. Royster wasn't exactly tearing it up this season until last week's game with Temple. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes did what it seems they always do when they venture out to Pac-10 country a couple of weeks ago - they lost to Arizona. But this team should have little trouble here. The offense can run or pass, and Rick Stanzi can no longer be referred to as "pick-6 Rick." After all, the Iowa signal caller has nine TD passes with only one INT so far this season. Iowa is on a 10-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, while the Nittany Lions have covered just two of their last nine as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue in the same direction. I'm laying the points with Iowa on Saturday.

Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt @ Connecticut
PICK: Connecticut -7.5
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UConn has certainly underachieved this season, as evidenced by its 2-2 SU and ATS record.
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With that said, we did see the Huskies bust out in the second half against Buffalo last Saturday, outscoring the Bulls 31-7 after going into halftime in a 14-14 tie.
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The difference-maker last week was QB Cody Endres, making his first appearance of the season after being suspended for the first three games. Endres took over for an ineffective Zach Frazer, and he'll be the starter this week, with Frazer dropped to third on the depth chart.
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Finally, we should see the Huskies talented but underrated group of wide receivers begin to make their mark.
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UConn is also healthier at two other key positions this week. The Huskies are expected to have RB Jordan Todman back on the field after he missed last week's game. Todman has already picked up 448 yards and five touchdowns on the ground in only three games. LB Scott Lutrus is now listed as probable after missing last week's contest. He's certainly a difference-maker on an already stout Huskies defense.
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Vanderbilt upset Ole Miss as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago, and is coming off its bye week. That surprising result against the Rebels is probably the only thing keeping this line in the single digits.
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Keep in mind, the week previous, the Commodores were crushed 27-3 by LSU. They covered the number in their season-opener against Northwestern, only thanks to a back door touchdown late.
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Having already seen Denard Robinson this season, the Huskies defense should be ready for versatile Commodores QB Larry Smith. The problem for Vandy is, it's become very one-dimensional, averaging just 127 pass yards per game compared to 161 rush yards. It's the type of offense the Huskies can certainly handle.
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Look for UConn to build on the success they found in the second half of last week's romp over Buffalo. Huskies by 10 or more. Take Connecticut.

Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami FL @ Clemson
PICK: Clemson 3
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Clemson suffered a true heartbreaker prior to their bye week, blowing a 17 point lead at Auburn, losing the game on a missed field goal in overtime. But head coach Dabo Swinney was quite pleased with his team’s collective reaction to the defeat and their subsequent hard work during their bye week. “I’m more encouraged than discouraged right now.”
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Quarterback Kyle Parker took time off last week to rest his ailing shoulder. When he returned to practice this week, he sounded quite upbeat. “I felt good. I thought I threw the ball well, especially coming back. My arm actually feels really fresh.”
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Last year, Clemson used its bye week to overcome a 2-3 start; beginning a six game winning streak that resulted in an ACC Atlantic Division title. Swinney says there wasn’t as much soul searching during this bye week. “I do think we have the personnel and the chemistry on this team to really be a good football team. What we got to do now is try and create some momentum.”
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Miami lost to Clemson at home last year. They’ve covered the spread only once in their last six ACC road games, losing SU as a favorite at North Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State during that span. And, after facing a young QB who couldn’t throw downfield in their win at Pitt last week, the Hurricanes defense is not poised to shut down a quality QB buoyed by a strong ‘thunder and lightning’ running game with Jamie Harper and Andre Ellington, a duo that combined for 201 rushing yards at Auburn. 2* Take Clemson.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville vs. Arkansas St
Play: Under 60½
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Louisville (1-2 SU/1-1 ATS) is rebuilding under new coach Charlie Strong, the former defensive coordinator at Florida. The running game is actually decent behind senior RB Bilal Powell, as senior QB Adam Froman (2 TDs, 3 INTs) is average. Stopping opposing backs from dancing into the end zone is a primary reason new coach Charlie Strong was summoned from his job as Florida's defensive coordinator to fix Cardinal football. They are on an 8-3 run under the total. Arkansas State (0-3 SU/2-1 ATS) is in rebuilding mode for Coach Steve Roberts and a better running team, which will keep the score down. Play Louisville/Arkansas State Under the total.

Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on Ohio State -16.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State pieces together another dominant performance Saturday against an overmatched Illinois team. The Buckeyes are off to a 4-0 starts this season, winning by an average of 34.7 points/game. The Fighting Illini are in rebuilding mode, while the Buckeyes are a serious national title contender. Illinois has lost seven in a row at home to Ohio State since its last win in 1991. The Illini have also dropped seven straight to ranked opponents since beating the Buckeyes, including last season's 30-0 defeat in Columbus. Illinois cannot throw the football, completing just 52.5% of their passes for 130 yards per game. The Illini are averaging 229 yards rushing per game, but that plays right into Ohio State's hands. The Buckeyes are allowing just 70 rushing yards/game and 2.6 yards/carry this season. When Illinois gets behind, they won't be able to come back because of their inability to throw the football. The Buckeyes roll for four quarters. Take Ohio State and lay the points.