Steve Merril
Blue Jays vs. Twins
Play: Under 8
Minnesota isn't exactly entering the playoffs with much momentum. They continue their series at home with Toronto on Saturday afternoon. Brian Duensing makes his 13th start for the Twins. He is 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA. Those numbers improve at home where he's 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA. The lefty faced Toronto as a starter last season and gave up three runs and six hits in five innings of work. Adam Lind (1-4), Edwin Encarnacion (0-3), Vernon Wells (0-2), Lyle Overbay (0-1), and John Buck (0-1) have had limited, to no success, against Duensing. As a team, Toronto is hitting .215 against southpaws while going Under the total in 19 of their 35 games against them. The Blue Jays are hitting .243 in daytime games while going Under in exactly half of those games. Minnesota's bullpen has an ERA right around 3.70 at home this season. Toronto’s Shaun Marcum looks to finish up a highly successful season. He's 13-8 with a 3.63 ERA in 30 starts with 161 strikeouts and just 43 walks. The righty has already defeated the Twins this season after giving up one run and five hits in seven innings of work back in May. Jim Thome (1-10), Delmon Young (0-6), Denard Span (0-3), and JJ Hardy (0-2) have poor numbers against Marcum. As a team, the Twins are struggling offensively right now. Before last night, they had scored just 27 runs over a seven game span. The Blue Jays bullpen, while sporting a losing record on the road, has an ERA right around 3.80 as a unit. With both teams struggling offensively, we expect a low-scoring and recommend a play on the Under this afternoon.
Charlie Scott
Navy vs. Air Force
Play: Navy +9.5
To be completely honest, I don't know how the oddsmaker came up with this line, except that he has Air Force Power Rated too high right now. Ok AF gave a game to OKlahoma and they also beat BYU, who just lost to the Utah st. Navy off a bye week with a fresh week to prepare, while Air Force is coming off a lackluster 20-14 win over Wyoming. Both of these Service Academy teams mirror each other in recruits and playing schemes. Here's some unbelivable trends that fall in Navy's favor: Navy has won 15 games in a row s/u vs service Academies, 7 straight Commander in Chief Trophies and Won 7 in a row vs Air Force. This is always a close game, LY Navy won in OT 16-13. This is the largest spread between these 2 teams in over 5 Years. I'm a NAVY man Today, GO Sqids !
Rocketman
Colorado @ St Louis
Play: Colorado
Both teams are 83-76 overall on the season. St Louis is 8-17 this year when playing on Saturday. St Louis is 1-6 the past 3 years when playing in October. Colorado bullpen has a 3.63 ERA on the road this year. Ubaldo Jiminez is 19-8 with a 2.99 ERA overall this year and 10-6 with a 2.81 ERA on the road this season. How bad do you think Jiminez wants his 20th win of the year? I would have to guess very bad. Kyle Lohse is 4-8 with a 7.09 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA his last 3 starts. Lohse is 1-3 overall vs Colorado since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado today!
BIG AL
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
The roller coaster season that has belonged to Armando Galarraga will come to a end after tonight. The Detroit righthander didn't even make the team coming out of spring training due to his poor efforts, then came back in mid-May and promptly looked so uninspired that most people didn't even realize he had been placed in the Tiger rotation. But all that changed with his first start of June, when Galarraga pitched what should have been a perfect game, except for the blown call with two outs in the ninth by umpire Jim Joyce. After some decent starts and four consecutive wins, Galarraga reverted back to his spring form and was promptly sent back down to the minors in early July. He's pretty much been a non-factor since, with very brief flashes of the form he displayed in early June and most unfortunately, the Tigers have gone an incredible 3-11 in Galarraga's 14 starts since his July recall. He probably can't wait for it all to be over, but first he has to face one of the hot teams - and consequently one of the hottest starters - of the second half. The Orioles along with lefthander Brian Matusz have been on a nice little roll that has to have people in Baltimore thinking that there is some light at the end of what was a very long and dark tunnel. Next season could actually bring some success for this team with new skipper Buck Showalter at the helm and a plethora of young talent that has yet to be fully realized. The O's are 9-0 in Matusz's last nine starts on grass. Take Baltimore.
SPORTS WAGERS
Duke +9 over MARYLAND
6:00 PM EST. It’s always almost impossible to replace the best quarterback in a program’s history but that’s exactly what the Duke Blue Devils are trying to do this season. The loss of Thaddeus Lewis from last year’s surprising team is one that was going to be felt regardless of any upgrade at another position because the quarterback position is undoubtedly the most important in College Football. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils still offer tremendous value as an underdog to the wildly overrated Terrapins. Yes, that 1-3 record doesn’t look too good but the reality is that David Cutcliffe and his staff were dealt a bad starting hand. Opening with Elon was nice but to go on the road against Wake Forest, face #1 Alabama the week after and play a gimmicky team in the Black Knights last week simply isn’t ideal for a team breaking in a new quarterback. Sean Renfree has actually played quite well, completing 62% of his passes while throwing for nine touchdowns and being sacked only three times. His penchant for turnovers is to be expected but he should have no problem carving up a weak Maryland defense that has allowed close to 380 yards per game and aside from West Virginia hasn’t faced a team with a legitimate aerial attack yet. To lay the 9 points with the Terps in a game that will essentially come down to turnovers cannot be recommended. Both these teams are going to score and score fast and the books know it too. We always recommend playing dogs that have proven they can score and this game is no different. If Maryland gets the breaks on fumbles, drops and field goal misses they still might not cover. But if Renfree and Duke pass and run the way they’ve been doing thus far this season we see no reason why the Blue Devils won’t stay well within this range. Take the points and don’t be shocked at an upset win. Play: #123 Duke +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
CLEMSON +3 over Miami
12:00 PM EST. Clemson and Miami both last played in what seems like a month ago and as a result the books have been left a little confused. The last time we saw the Tigers play was on September 18th when they lost a heartbreaker to Auburn in overtime in a game almost everybody considers they should have won. Clemson raced out to a 17-0 lead and had their kicker miss a 31-yard chip shot to send the game into double overtime, all while on the road. The Hurricanes meanwhile last played on September 23rd at Pittsburgh and blew them out 31-3. So why is Clemson a 3½-point home underdog? Your guess is as good as ours. It seems as though the public has jumped back on the Hurricanes bandwagon despite a humiliating loss to Ohio State and a rushing attack that ranks third from the bottom in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The perception seems to be that Tigers are basically an unknown squad since their two wins came against North Texas and Presbyterian. Baloney. Give us an extremely focused Clemson squad in this showdown, with 14 days to prepare, and throw in some nice points and the Tigers are the prudent choice. If you think the Tigers opened up their offense in those lopsided wins you’re sadly mistaken. The Auburn game proved that they can hang with the big boys on the road against an SEC team. For the Hurricanes to come into Death Valley and dictate the style of play is highly unlikely. It’s the conference opener for both teams and to lay points on the road in this situation just isn’t smart betting. Take the home dog and the points. Play: #180 Clemson +3 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes -16.5
Ohio State is in another gear this season, and it will not be caught overlooking an Illinois team that ruined its 10-0 start in 2007. Since that win, Illinois is 0-7 against ranked foes. It is also worth noting that the Illini have lost seven straight at home to the Buckeyes by an average of 18 points. Turning back the history book a few more pages, we see just how dominant the Buckeyes have been in this matchup. Ohio State leads the all-time series 62-30-4, which includes an awesome 33-12 mark in Champaign. The Buckeyes won last season's meeting 30-0, and they are a much more explosive offensive team this year. The road has been extremely kind to Buckeye backers as their team is a dominant 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road contests. Ohio State is also a spotless 8-0 against the number in its last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points. With as well as quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who had a hand in six of his team's 10 touchdowns last week, has been playing, I like Ohio State to take care of business on the road today, covering the number in the process. Lay the points.
Gregg Price
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. NC State Wolfpack
Play: Virginia Tech Hokies -3½
I think its safe to say they have put the first 2 losses behind them and are back to playing Beamer ball. V'tech has no losses in conference and can still win the ACC and get a BCS game. So there is no reason for this team to have quit just yet. V'tech is coming off a road shutout win and that should carry over into this week. Lay the points here.
Sac Lawson | CFB Total
W. Michigan / Idaho Over 58
his is the first 1.5 unit Free Play of the season. Usually a premium level play that I've decided to give out FOR FREEE!!
Here's the thing about this game. Nathan Enderle is a stud, plain n simple. Idaho passes the ball all over the field behind Enderle's arm, and while they had some injury concerns at wide out over the last couple weeks, many of those have been cleared up. Idaho flat out scores points, and if they have any say, this game will go deep into the 30 point range.
On the other side, Western Michigan has the exact same identity, just a young QB establishing such. WMU would absolutely love to be the offense that Idaho already is. They'll keep up with the Vandals and exchange blows all afternoon. Neither team will try too hard to establish the run, and all it will take is one touchdown before both these teams open up the book.
We saw last week just how poor the Idaho defense was, allowing over 30 points to a true freshman QB led CSU squad. Expect to see something similar from a WMU team that has more offensive chemistry at this point in the season than CSU.
At the end of the day, this is one of those games that no matter who wins, it points to the over. Both teams want to pass, both teams have the personnel to do so. This one will be played in the mid 30's! Take the OVER for 1.5 units.
ATS Lock Club
North Carolina -14 over East Carolina
Fresh off their first win of the season, the North Carolina Tar Heels now return to Chapel Hill to take on the East Carolina Pirates in a non- conference bout this weekend at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
Despite missing 12 players, including seven starters, due to ongoing NCAA investigations, the Tar Heels were able to rally for a 17-13 victory at Rutgers this past weekend. It was a terrific win for the shorthanded Tar Heels, who suffered a pair of tough 30-24 losses against LSU and Georgia Tech to open the season.
ECU meanwhile, is coming off a bye week and it brings a 2-1 record into this game. The Pirates kicked off a three-game road trip in their last outing, dropping a 49-27 decision at Virginia Tech.
Despite missing some key personnel on defense, the Tar Heels should still have enough offense to top the Pirates
Karl Garrett
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Northwestern (-5') at MINNESOTA
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Talk about two programs going in opposite directions....Wildcats QB Dan Persa will have a field day against the #113 ranked pass defense in the land.
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The Gophers have lost 3 straight at home and last week the crowd even chanted "Fire Brewster". Obviously, there is trouble in Golden Gopher-land.
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Back to Persa, this kid is ultra-efficient and is ranked # 3 in the nation and # 1 in completion percentage with over 1,000 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 INT thus far. No wonder the Wildcats are off to a 4-0 start, and they did cover in their last road game, destroying the Rice Owls 30-13.
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The 'Cats have covered 5 of the last 6 series meetings at Minnesota, and they cover again here.
4♦ NORTHWESTERN
Derek Mancini
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Miami-Florida at CLEMSON (+3)
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Looking at this ACC match up, I see trouble ahead for the Hurricanes. Its one thing to beat a slow, plodding Big East team like Pittsburgh. But its an entirely different story to do it against Clemson, which has the speed and firepower to match. More importantly, they're coming off a bye week, so you'd expect the Tigers to be as prepared as they'll ever be for this aggressive Miami defense.
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Speaking of defense, the Tigers got a taste of that when they faced an SEC defense at Auburn two weeks ago. It was a tough, physical game that saw QB Kyle Parker take some serious hits. No doubt they learned a great deal from that contest, and will be able to implement that coming off the bye. For as much hype as Jacory Harris came into this season with, Kyle Parker has been the better quarterback, throwing only one pick to Harris' 6.
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Both teams posses plenty of talent at the running back position, and while Miami did do a great job against Pitt's Dion Lewis, I'd be shocked if they were able to bottle up this Tigers rush attack in the same way. Both Ellington and Harper have been damn good thus far, and they proved that at Auburn. Fresh off a bye week, they'll get theirs against this Canes defense.
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I'm looking at this as a prime letdown spot for Shannon and his troops, as a bigtime Nationally televised blowout of Pitt may just have gotten to the Canes heads. Come into Clemson overconfident, and the Hurricanes will lose outright here. Either way, with the extra week to prepare, and given the Tigers are off a tough loss, this is a very dangerous spot for the Hurricanes. Take Clemson plus the points over Miami-Florida Saturday.
3♦ CLEMSON
Chuck O'Brien
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Navy at AIR FORCE (-9')
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For your first of two complimentary selections in college football on Saturday, take Air Force and lay the chalk against Navy.
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The Falcons cost me in a big way last week, failing to get inside the two-touchdown spread in a six-point win at Wyoming which cost me my 25 Dime Top Play. In retrospect, I should’ve been more leery of the look-ahead situation Air Force was in, but now that this game is finally here, I believe we’re going to see the Falcons explode in a big way against a Navy squad that looks to be down this season.
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While Air Force ripped off blowout wins to begin the year over Northwestern State (65-21) and BYU (35-14) before going to Oklahoma and outplaying the Sooners in a 27-24 road loss, the Middies have been lackluster to stay the least. They lost 17-14 to below-average Maryland as a 6½-point favorite, then barely edged Georgia Southern at home, then went to Louisiana Tech and rolled 37-23 over a Bulldogs team that’s clearly rebuilding.
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Despite last week’s pointspread results for each squad, Navy is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, while the Falcons remain on a solid 7-3 ATS run. Air Force has also cashed in 12 of its last 17 at home, 14 of 20 as a favorite, nine of 13 as a home chalk and four straight when laying 3½ to 10 points.
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Here’s the bottom line: Navy has won 19 straight games against service academy teams, including going 7-0 SU and ATS the last seven years against Air Force (the last two decided by a total of nine points, including last year’s in overtime) … and yet the Falcons are laying double-digits here? Must be a reason, and we’ll respect the oddsmakers’ number.
4♦ AIR FORCE
Derek Mancini
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Michigan at INDIANA (+10)
Small play here on the Hoosiers as they host the Wolverines Saturday. Big Ten play has a way of separating the men from the boys, and the problem I have with the Wolverines is their awful conference play under Rich Rodriguez, going just 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS. For as much as we hear about Denard Robinson, it means nothing if his team can't get it done on the conference trail.
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I'll admit the Hoosiers have had an easy going thus far this season, facing cupcake after cupcake. But before you go instantly fading Indiana, consider two things: They were able to hang with Michigan last season, losing 36-33, but easily covering as an 18' point pup. And, they have one hell of a QB in Ben Chappell, who right now is 4th in the nation with a 179 QB rating. Granted, he's done it against some very questionable defenses, but there's nothing he can do but play the teams in front of him. And fact is, its not like the Wolverines pass defense is that good, getting torched for 381 passing yards in their only road game this season (at Notre Dame).
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The final piece of the puzzle is the line, which has been bet down considerably from where it opened, despite the public riding the Wolverines. This kind of reverse line movement tells us where the sharp money is landing, and that's key in betting any sport, but especially football. Look for the Wolverines to get exposed (once again) in conference play, as their defense is beatable, and they can only ride Denard Robinson as far as his knee will carry them. Small play on Indiana plus the points over Michigan Saturday.
1♦ INDIANA
Bobby Maxwell
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Notre Dame at BOSTON COLLEGE (+3)
I’m not sure Notre Dame should be a road favorite against anybody right now and so I’m playing Boston College at home to get the best of the Irish tonight.
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The Boston College offense has a chance to get on track, going up against a very beaten down Notre Dame defense that is 92nd in the country against the pass, tied for 91st in total defense and 98th against the run. These guys haven’t stopped anybody all season, allowing at least 28 points in each of their last three losses.
The Eagles offense will be led by new QB Chase Rettig, a freshman QB will likely have a short leash since this team has juggled QBs all season. They are set at RB with Montell Harris, who went over 100 yards in two of the first three games. The BC defense gave up just a rushing TD last week and it will be going up against a Notre Dame offense that can’t run the ball, ranked 99th in the country on the ground.
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Notre Dame is just 1-7 SU dating back to last November and they have failed on seven of their last 10 ATS. The Irish are on ATS skids of 3-7 against ACC teams, 4-10 in non-conference action, 1-10 as a favorite and an astonishing 4-11 overall.
Boston College is on ATS surges of 4-1 in October and 7-3 as an underdog of up to three points.
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In this series, the underdog has cashed in six of the last seven games and I’m looking for Boston College to come out and play right with the Irish today and not fall behind early. The longer the Eagles are in this one, the longer that loud crowd they will have gets into the game. Look to play Boston College in this one, and go ahead and grab the points just in case some funny stuff happens at the end.
2♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Chris Jordan
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Washington State at UCLA (-24)
If this were any other team in the Pac 10, I might say otherwise, but the Bruins don't have to worry about letting down after that big win against a Texas team that was obviously looking ahead to this week's Oklahoma game.
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UCLA can use that as motivation, and will celebrate with the home crowd in Pasadena, to drill this Washington State team, which might be in the bottom three of college football, along with New Mexico and New Mexico State.
Remember, this is a team still stinging from a 35-point home shutout loss to Stanford just three weeks ago. But with back-to-back wins over ranked nonconference foes, the Bruins would put themselves back in the conference race with a win over the league's last-place entry from 2009.
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And I'm not talking about any ol' win; the Bruins can use a conference blowout to soothe that loss to Stanford.
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Washington State opens its road conference schedule after a 34-point home thrashing from USC last weekend, and brings its 116th-ranked pass defense to the Rose Bowl. That will help UCLA, which is ranked 118th in the nation in passing offense.
It won't seem like it this week, as the Bruins will balance things out with the pistol-offense, running the ball with a smashmouth effectiveness that has worked the past two weeks.
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I'm laying the points here and banking on destruction by UCLA.
3♦ UCLA
Stephen Nover
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Washington State (+24) at UCLA
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I love this three-touchdown blowout, that is available right now and a game you cannot afford to miss!!!
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This, of course, isn't so much a play on Washington State as a go-against UCLA coming off perhaps the biggest shocker of the season beating Texas on the road.
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The Bruins routed the Longhorns, 34-12. UCLA also knocked off then nationally-ranked Houston in another upset. UCLA has much tougher and more important Pac-10 matchups coming in their next two games when it plays on the road against California and Oregon.
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This is your classic letdown spot for the Bruins. Washington State is bad, by far the worst again in the Pac-10. But the Cougars can throw the ball averaging 239 yards passing a game. Quarterback Jeff Tuel has shown improvement this season and he has decent receivers in Marquess Wilson, Jared Karstetter and Jeffrey Solomon.
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The Cougars have a much better passing attack than UCLA, which ranks last nationally in passing efficiency.
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UCLA opened the season losing 31-22 at Kansas State and then fell to Stanford at home, 35-0. Stanford is very good this year, probably the real thing. UCLA wasn't as bad as those two results, but the Bruins also aren't nearly as good as their two victories against Texas and Houston may show.
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This is a huge letdown spot for UCLA, which is 11-27-1 ATS when meeting an opponent with a losing record. Washington State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. The spread is high enough for the Cougars to stay within the number and get the cover.
4♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Joel Tyson
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Ohio State (-17) at ILLINOIS
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Well, it is that time of the year once again, time for Ron Zook to absorb another punishment at the hands of one of the elite in the Big 10. When was the last time you can remember Illinois stepped up and actually held their own against a big name school?
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Illinois is 1-8 against the spread their last 9 games when hosting FBS schools, and they are just 1-4 against the line their last 5 as a home dog. Hardly numbers you can rally around.
Ohio State meanwhile has covered ALL 4 of their games this season, and they are a money-turning 19-5 against the spread their last 24 when installed as the road favorite.
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The Buckeyes have also made amends since losing at the Horseshoe back in 2007 to Illinois, as OSU has won and covered the last pair of series meetings against the Illini.
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This one won't be close.
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Ohio State in a rout.
5♦ OHIO STATE
Chuck O'Brien
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Florida State (-7) at Virginia
For your second of two college football complimentary selections Saturday, take Florida State as a road chalk at Virginia in an ACC battle.
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The Seminoles have bounced back nicely since getting destroyed at Oklahoma three weeks ago, crushing BYU (34-10) and Wake Forest (31-0) by a combined score of 65-10. After getting shredded for 487 yards in that 47-17 loss to the Sooners, Florida State held both BYU and Wake Forest under 200 total yards.
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Now FSU faces Virginia, which has scored 34 and 48 points in wins over Division I-AA Richmond and VMI, but in their only game against a quality opponent, the Cavaliers managed just two touchdowns in a 17-14 loss at USC (and the Trojans’ defense is way below-average this year).
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Virginia’s defense (37 points allowed in three games) has definitely shined so far this year after ending last year with six straight losses while allowing an average of 34 ppg (including 28 or more five of the contests). But that defense will be challenged by QB Christian Ponder (61 percent completions, 7 TDs, 3 INTs) and the fast Florida State offense that has topped 30 points in four of its last five games.
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The ‘Noles have won 13 of 15 all-time meetings with Virginia, cashing in 10 of those contests. They’re also 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games, and the SU winner has covered the spread in each of Florida State’s last six contests and eight of the last nine.
This is a big step up in class for Virginia, and if Florida State comes focused it should roll by double digits in this one.
3♦ FLORIDA STATE
Craig Davis
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Penn State at IOWA (-7)
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Today's free play is on the Iowa Hawkeyes over Penn State at home. They've won 8 of the last 10 against the Nits SU and did a heck of a job at Happy Valley last year, not only covering the number but winning the game outright.
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Tonight they not only win the game, they destroy overmatched Penn State. Iowa has been looking for a quality opponent to take their frustrations out on and I think they've found just the opponent they needed.
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After dropping a 34-27 decision at Arizona, Iowa came back home last week and destroyed Ball State 45-0. In fact, in three of their first four games they have limited their opponents to 7 points or less. And if you take a look at the Arizona game, they gave up one touchdown on a kick return and another on an interception (85-yarder as Iowa was driving to score). Another score was set up from another Iowa turnover.
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I'm not trying to take away from Arizona's win, but Iowa gave them that game and it wasn't the defense's fault Arizona scored so many points. Iowa's defense is still one of the best in the country and I'll be completely shocked if Penn State scores more than 10 points tonight. So all I'm really asking Iowa to do tonight is score 20 or more... case closed.
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The Hawkeyes' defense ranks third in the nation against the run at 65.5 yards per game and first overall at 227.5. Also note: the Hawkeyes have forced 14 turnovers in the last four games of this series. Iowa owns Penn State and should be able to lay the wood tonight. Lay the points.
3♦ IOWA
Bobby Maxwell
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Nevada (-21) at UNLV
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As for my comp winner, the Wolf Pack have opened the season with a 4-0 record with some impressive wins and have worked their way into the Top 25 for the first time in more than 60 years. They have one of the most exciting players and offenses in college football so I’m going to lay the chalk with Nevada tonight as they take on UNLV in Las Vegas.
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Nevada has already earned a dominating home win over Cal 52-31 back on Sept. 17 and then on Saturday the Wolf Pack went to Provo, Utah and beat up BYU 27-13 and cashed as five-point road favorites. Offensively, Nevada s fourth nationally in total yards and that odd formation with QB Colin Kaepernick in the shotgun with a RB behind him seems to be working fine.
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Kaepernick is one of the most exciting players in college football, having already thrown for 924 yards, seven TDs and one INT, but he’s also run for 451 yards and eight TDs. He is the school’s all-time leader in total offense last weekend.
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Nevada has dominated UNLV the last four years and the Wolf Pack has cashed five straight against their rivals from Las Vegas. Last year, Kaepernick led Nevada to a 63-28 home win as 6 ½-point favorites. Last two times they’ve been in Las Vegas, Nevada has won by at least 22 points, including a 49-27 win in 2008 after a 31-3 in 2006.
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Kaepernick has totaled 384 passing yards and 413 rushing yards and six TDs in his last two games against the Rebels and he’s helped Nevada average 56 points in those two wins. The Wolf Pack come into this one on ATS runs of 7-0 after a straight-up win, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in non-conference action, 15-5 as a favorite of 10 ½ points or more and 7-2 overall.
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UNLV is on ATS skids of 4-10 overall, 0-6 against winning teams, 3-13 against WAC teams and 1-7 as an underdog. Play the Wolf Pack to light up the scoreboard tonight in Las Vegas. Coach Chris Ault isn’t going to take his foot off the gas pedal as he wants to destroy the arch rival Rebels. Lay that big number and have now worries with Nevada tonight.
4♦ NEVADA
Stephen Nover
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Florida Atlantic at SOUTH FLORIDA (-17')
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This is a big number to lay with the Bulls, but the team needs a strong pick-me-up following their lackluster 24-12 victory last Saturday versus Western Kentucky. South Florida opens Big East Conference play next week and needs to fine-tune after a sloppy, flat performance against Western Kentucky.
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This isn't going to be a pretty game. South Florida isn't going to cover this number with big plays. Instead the Bulls will grind and completely wear down the tired and overmatched Owls by controlling both lines of scrimmage.
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South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels spearheads an offense averaging 216 yards on the ground. Daniels is a good enough passer, though, to keep Florida Atlantic honest at the line of scrimmage.
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The Owls rank last in the nation in stopping the run, permitting more than 275 yards rushing per game. Florida Atlantic is in a down cycle after losing as 9 1/2-point home favorites to North Texas in its Sun Belt Conference opener. North Texas was 0-3 entering that game and off a 24-0 loss to Army, which shows how bad Florida Atlantic is.
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The Owls return to Sun Belt play next week against Louisiana-Monroe. Florida Atlantic does not have a good history as a big 'dog going 6-15 ATS when taking more than 10 points.
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South Florida's Skip Holtz is a top coach. Coming off a flat effort and with Big East rival Syracuse on deck, Holtz will have his Bulls playing much better this week. The result should be more than a three-touchdown victory.
3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
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TULANE +17.5
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Simply put, I just don't see what Rutgers has done to be a favorite in this price range. They've beaten unlined Norfolk State 31-0 (yawn), then barely beat Florida International 19-14 as 15-point road chalk (got outgained by 199 yards), and lost 17-13 as 3-point home dogs to UNC in their last game. Tulane, on the other hand, has already covered a number in this price range (lost 27-13 as 20.5-point home dogs to Ole Miss). Tulane has been outgained in all three of their games, but only by an average of 31.3 yards per game. A similar effort should keep them well within this number. The Rutgers offense averaged 16 points and 208 yards in their two lined games. That won't even come close to covering this number, especially against a Tulane D that ranks 42nd in the nation in yards allowed per game (329). And even if things go sideways for Tulane, the backdoor is nice and big. Small action wager on Tulane.
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Duke at Maryland
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The Dookies are off three straight SU/ATS losses, but are the beneficiaries of a generous number in this early evening kickoff in College Park. Maryland is somehow 2-1 SU/ATS in its lined games despite running 120 less plays than its opponents. Blue Devils HC Cutcliffe is 8-0 ATS all-time in his career when his team was -2 or worse in the turnover department its last game. Take the points.
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Play on: Duke
Bob WingerterFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Play: Georgia Bulldogs -4½
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This setting certainly brings some Colorado advantages on the surface the Buffaloes have two weeks to prepare from what appeared to be an impressive scoreboard vs. Hawaii, and are calling for a “Blackout” to generate fan interest vs. this high-profile opponent. And with Georgia having lost three straight, it might even look to the public like the door is open for an upset here. It isn’t; the only door open is to cash an easy ticket with the much better team at the overly reduced price range. There is still a major class difference between these programs, and in particular a huge edge in team speed to the Bulldogs. So with a chance to vent some frustrations they relish the chance to step down in class, and perhaps having the pressure off outside of the SEC is a bonus for a young team. And while we cashed near the top of these pages with the Buffaloes vs. Hawaii, note that they trailed 10-0 at halftime in that one, and escaped because the altitude wore out the visitors, not because of anything special they did on their own.
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1 Unit on Texas Tech -7
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The Red Raiders are 5-1 SU & ATS in their last 6 against the Cyclones, and I like them to build on this trend with a dominant performance through the air. Offensively, Iowa State hasn't shown me that it is explosive enough to keep pace with Tech in this game. ISU will try to run the football to keep the Tech offense off the field, but the Red Raiders are an improved defensive team. They held Texas to just 93 yards on the ground two weeks ago. I also like the fact that Tech has had an extra week to prepare for this one. The Red Raiders are a wicked 18-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a home defeat, winning these contests by an average score of 34.8 to 18.0. Plus, Iowa State is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 9.7 to 34.0. Take Tech.
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Duke vs. Maryland
Pick: Duke +9
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I'll back the Duke Blue Devils Saturday as a nice-sized underdog to the lowly Maryland Terrapins. Duke may be 1-3 to start the season while Maryland is 3-1, but this start for both teams gives us nice value on the Blue Devils Saturday. This is a Duke team that has played the likes of Alabama, Wake Forest and Army already. Maryland's only real competition came in a 17-31 loss at WVU.
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Duke beat Maryland 17-13 last season at home, limiting the Terrapins to just 249 yards of total offense in that game. Duke threw for 371 yards in the win, and I expect another aerial assault from the Blue Devils Saturday with 9 returning starters on offense including their starting QB. The Blue Devils are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Terrapins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Roll with Duke Saturday.