LT Profits
New York Mets -120
The New York Mets took the opening game of their season-ending series vs. the Washington Nationals 2-1 here at Citi Field last night, and we look for the Mets to make it two in a row this afternoon.
The bookmakers have installed the Mets as -120 favorites on the betting line today.
These teams are only playing for pride, but Mets’ starter Raul Valdes would like to impress in his first start of the season at the Major League level. Valdes tossed 53.1 innings out of the bullpen for the Mets this season with little success, and they then sent him to the minors to get stretched out so he may return as a starter. He allowed three runs or less in all seven of his starts, and he is not exactly facing Murderer’s Row in his return.
The Nationals are batting a modest .251 as a team thus season, and that already low number has dropped to a pathetic .197 over the last 10 games. For the entire year, Washington ranks 11th in the National League in batting average and 13th in runs scoreed.
As for Washington starter, Yuneski Maya, he is a very nondescript 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP since his September 1 recall, and he ash yet to starts a Major League game that his team as won, as the Nats are 0-4 in all of his starts. He has also yet to record a Quality Start at the big league level, and his command has been bed also, with 10 walks vs. just eight strikeouts.
Take the Mets at this fairly cheap price at home.
O.C. Dooley
Wyoming +4.5
It is easy to see why the line of this game has risen significantly from an opening figure of 3 points as host Toledo is coming off 3 shocking underdog outright upsets including twice where the oddsmakers were giving them “double digits” to work with. The problem with those 3 triumphs though is that they all came on the highway, so one must consider that Toledo’s only home game so far resulted in an ugly “41-2” LOSS against an opponent (Arizona) who operates out of the western time zone. The bottom line is that visiting Wyoming is in the midst of a killer schedule (Texas, Boise State, Air Force past 3 games) which will not get any easier as they have nationally ranked TCU along with dangerous Utah on deck. Wyoming is also playing out this season in memory of a fallen teammate who was tragically killed in an automobile accident near the beginning of the campaign. According to my database research the fact that Toledo has pulled off 3 consecutive outright upsets actually plays AGAINST them this evening beginning with a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (70-30 past decade during weeks 5-through-9) which plays AGAINST home favorites like Toledo off of consecutive road triumphs. The situation is different for Wyoming who has COVERED SIX IN A ROW ON THE ROAD if their last game was against a “conference” opponent. To add more fuel to the fire my research indicates that teams like Toledo off 3 consecutive underdog outright upsets are a disastrous 1-11 ATS when laying “less” that 6 points as a favorite.
Bryan Leonard
Florida vs. Alabama
Play: Florida +8
Many wrote off this young Florida team after struggling against Miami Ohio and for a half against South Florida. But since that 31-7 second half edge over the Bulls the Gators are making great strides. They won at Tennessee 31-17 and pounded Kentucky last week at home. This is a team that has dominated the turnover battle the last seven seasons to the tune of plus 68. And they have picked right up this year with a plus 8 advantage through four games. Teams that win the turnover battle are an excellent pointspread proposition and it's even better when those teams are taking points. In the past 7 plus seasons Florida is a perfect 7-0 as a road underdog. The Gators have been so dominant that Florida has only been a road underdog twice in the Urban Meyer era. In his time at Utah the now Florida head coach was a perfect 3-0 catching points on the road. With quality talent Urban Meyer is a bet on coach when catching points. He is now 6-0 as an underdog, home or away at Utah and Florida.
This is a huge revenge game for the Gators who lost the chance to play for the National Championship when they dropped a 32-13 decision last year to this Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game. That's one of only two losses suffered by this squad in the past 32 games. Florida is 15-2 straight up on the road the past 4 plus seasons with only one defeat coming by more than four points.
Alabama comes in off that terrific come from behind win at Arkansas as they trailed that game 17-7 at the half. After facing the likes of San Jose State, Duke and the worst Penn State team in years is this team really worthy of the accolades? Alabama is just 12-21 in the home favorite role and they have scored just 24 points each against the only quality opposition they faced this year in Penn State and Arkansas. Florida has better defensive athletes than either of those two teams.
Before the season started Alabama would have been a 3 or 4 point favorite in this game. Now they are laying twice that amount based on what could be an overreaction to early Florida struggles. An outright Florida win wouldn't be a shock.