Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 23,2010

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno St. at San Jose St.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: San Jose St.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Hold your nose if you want to, but Fresno State has not been good as a double-digit favorite given their 5-17-1 ATS mark over their last 23 games when laying at least 10.5 points. Not many bettors will want to take San Jose State after their 45-0 thumping at the hands of Boise State in a game where they only gained 80 total yards. The Spartans (1-6) are one of the worst teams in the FBS as they rank dead last in scoring (8.9 PPG) and 115th in defense (455.7 YPG). But supposedly scary situations can be solid betting propositions. At home, San Jose State's defense is allowing only 24.3 PPG and 376.3 YPG. Fresno State hosted another weak opponent last week in New Mexico State but only won by a 33-10 margin as 30-point favorite. The Bulldogs gained 222 yards on the ground which is a sound way to control the game but it is not the best way to cover a large point spread. Fresno State will likely win this game but expect it to be closer than expected. This is a good time to take San Jose State at home as a big underdog.

Sam MartinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M at KansasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: KansasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jayhawks have been blown out in each of their last two games, losing 55-7 against Baylor and then 59-7 last week at home against Kansas State, but we think they?ll keep the score close enough to cover here tonight. The Jayhawks had big matchup disadvantages against the running games of Baylor and K-State, but Texas A&M really isn?t much of a threat on the ground. And we think Kansas will finally catch some breaks in their passing game against an Aggies defense that has allowed 671 passing yards in their last two games. Not sure the Jayhawks will win outright, but they?ll cover this generous number.

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech at ClemsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Georgia TechFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Yellow Jackets tackle the Tigers in Death Valley this afternoon Paul Johnsons toughest task will be trying to keep his team focused on a Clemson squad they beat twice last year rather than a look-ahead to a huge Coastal Division clash with Virginia Tech on the first Thursday in November. It should be no problem as Clemson has watched its offensive production slip each of the last five weeks in a row. Even last Saturdays win over Maryland was of the inside-out variety as the Tigers won the score (31-7) but lost the ITS (350-213). While the revenge factor is with the Tigers, the stats tell us not lay points with these finicky felines. Thats probably a wise move considering five of the last six meetings between these two have been decided by five points or less points. Take the points with the better team here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Georgia Tech.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ball State vs. ToledoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ball State +12FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Has Toledo improved that much to be laying double-digits? The Rockets have not won more than five games in a season since 2005 and while they are on pace to snap that this season, I do not have a whole lot of faith in this team. Toledo has been favored only twice this season, both by four points, and it has been a double-digit favorite just seven times in its last 63 games, going 1-6 ATS over that span. After going 41-6 at home from 2000-2007, the Rockets are just 5-9 in their last 14 home games since then. Ball St. has fallen off the last two years after putting together that epic season in 2008 but this is actually a good spot for the Cardinals. They are coming off a home loss against Eastern Michigan in overtime last week, which snapped the Eagles 18-game losing streak. It is safe to say that loss was an embarrassment, especially when it blew 21-point leads on two different occasions. As bad as that loss was, we now have a line shirt of 26.5 points which is too big of an overreaction. The Cardinals will need to do a better job of running the ball which will keep their struggling defense off the field. According to the Ball St. Daily News, it will benefit from the return of offensive lineman Austin Holtz, who has missed the past two games with a high ankle sprain. Getting Holtz back restores some of the depth the Cardinals have missed after injuries to him and center Kreg Hunter in the past month. Ball St. had outrushed four of its first six opponents prior to last week. The strength of Toledo has been it defense as the Rockets have the top defense in MAC games only but that should tell you something about the MAC. Overall Toledo is 59th in total defense and 78th in scoring defense which shows it has been an inconsistent unit. A lot of that had to do with its game against Boise St. but there are ways to take advantage. Offensively, Toledo is a mess which makes laying this many points even a bigger challenge. The Rockets are 108th in the nation in total offense and 89th in scoring offense as they have scored 20 or fewer points four times. This is due to inconsistent play at quarterback but it has not helped that there is a weak running game on top of it. Ball St. as mentioned is struggling on defense overall but it has shown some good efforts as the Cardinals have held four of seven opponents to 403 or fewer total yards. This includes fellow MAC team Central Michigan, where Ball St. went on the road and won as 19.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals has been strong on the road as they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 roadies and after being outgained by 175 or more total yards, they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 return trips to the field. Ball St. is also a solid 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as underdogs of 10.5 or more points. The Rockets meanwhile are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following a win. 3* Ball St. Cardinals

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana vs. IllinoisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Indiana +14FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hoosiers can chuck the ball, and I am not talking Hoops here, QB Campbell leads the nations 5th rated passing offense for Indiana, and they can score enough points in this game to make it very interesting. They are better than advertised here, and nothing in the Big 10 comes easy this time of year, even at home for Illinois. Illinois is 1-8 ATS their last 9 times as a lined favorite, and this is homecoming week, where Illinois has not covered a spread in 5 years against weak sisters. I like Indiana to come in here and give them a big scare as they played both Michigan and Ohio State very tough till the end. Illinois not as deep as those two, a straight up win by 7 for Illinois, take the dog.

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Washington State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -34.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When Toby Gerhart departed Stanford after last season, it appeared that the offense would take a hit. Last year's team topped the 30 point mark eight times, and that was going to be hard to duplicate, or was it? The Cardinal has topped the 30-point mark in all six of their games on the season, and has had two games where they have averaged 60, so the offense has actually been better than a year ago. Andrew Luck is having a Heisman Trophy worthy year as he has thrown for 1,538 yards and 16 TDs to just four INTs on the season. As a result, Stanford has only lost one game and that came at the hands of a very powerful Oregon team. Washington State has fallen on hard times. The Cougars own just two wins over FBS teams over the last three years, and both of those required overtime. The Cougars have amazingly lost 11 of those games over the past three years by 35 points or more. So, while this number certainly is large, it is well within reach for Stanford. I look for the Cardinal offense to lay 50 or 60 on the Cougars and cover the large number.

Tom StrykerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame vs. Navy
Play: Notre Dame -6.5
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After ripping off 43 consecutive victories in this series, Notre Dame has dropped two of its last three meetings to Navy including last year’s 23-21 loss to the Midshipmen inside Notre Dame Stadium. Getting pushed around by the Middies may not have mattered much to former Irish head coach Charlie Weis. But, current skipper Brian Kelly doesn’t even want to think about that possibility.
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Last spring, when Coach Kelly was hired, he decided to set aside 15 to 20 minutes of each practice to work exclusively on defending the triple-option offense. Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco hasn’t budged on that either. The Irish scout team has ran Navy’s and Army’s offense for the past month in practices. In order to prepare the Dame for the early Noon kickoff, the Fighting Irish have held their workouts earlier in the day on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Notre Dame is on fall break and that allows the players to spend as much preparation time as they want on football.
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Even UND QB Dayne Crist is putting in the hours. With TE Kyle Rudolph gone for the season, WR Michael Floyd nursing a hamstring injury and Theo Riddick out with an ankle, the Irish will turn to guys like Duval Kamara and TJ Jones to help pick up the slack on offense. Thanks to the break, Crist has been able to spend extra hours on the field and in the film room with the wide receiver backups making sure they are all on the same page. In a normal week, the Irish personnel would have been forced to follow the NCAA-mandated 20 hour rule.
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History will be on the Notre Dame side too. As luck would have it, the Irish are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS since 1980 in this series when Navy enters with momentum off two or more straight up wins. It should be noted that those seven victories came by an average of 23.3 points per game! Momentum hasn’t been a good thing for the Middies either. When taking the field on a roll off two or more straight up victories, Navy is a disturbing 6-20 SU and 6-19 ATS provided it is matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. This team trend drops to 3-16 ATS provided Navy’s opponent does not enter off a pointspread loss.
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The Irish are fortunate to have extra time to prepare this week for an opponent that has given them trouble recently. Coach Kelly understands just how good this Navy team can play and you can bet your last dollar that he’ll have the Irish focused and well prepared for that revenge matchup. Take Notre Dame.

Craig Trapp

Ohio vs. Miami Ohio
Play: Ohio -3
Everything points to a very easy MAC win for Ohio. Last 4 head to head OHIO has won and covered spread, also Ohio is 7-1 ATS in league games. Miami big problem is they are just not very fast on the edges. Ohio on the other hand is super fast and they will run and pass all over Miami. Get in on this one as its an absolute layup.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana vs. Illinois FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Indiana +13.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana is a live Big 10 Dog. The Hoosiers have a big 85 yard advantage on offense and may have been looking ahead to this game off their slim win over Arkansas St. Indiana has a better record on the year and is much improved this year. Illinois is a good team most of the time as a dog. However when they are favored its another story. Illinois is 3-10 ats as a favorite most recently. Long term they are 1-17 ats as a favorite of 14 or less off a loss and 0-7 ats as a favorite in the first of back to back home games. When they play teams with a winning record they are 4-11 straight up. So I have no problem taking the 14 points here.

Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshall @ East Carolina
PICK: Marshall +12.5
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Marshall came out of their bye last week and laid a complete egg on national TV against Central Florida, losing 35-14 at home. The Thundering Herd went into their bye off another bad loss, demolished by Southern Miss 41-16. The betting markets have obviously soured on Marshall’s ability to step up in class, giving us a very attractive price to support them here.
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Weaker Marshall teams than this one have given East Carolina all kinds of trouble in recent years. The Thundering Herd lost 21-17 to the Pirates last year. A four win Marshall team took East Carolina into OT in 2008, right here in Greenville. In ’07, 3-9 Marshall beat East Carolina outright as a touchdown home underdog. We’ve seen Marshall hang tough with quality foes like West Virginia already this season – they have an ‘A’ game, and that ‘A’ game is good enough to hang with a team like the Pirates.
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Spots don’t get much worse than this one for East Carolina. Two weeks ago, they played a down-to-the-last-second barnburner, stealing a one point win against Southern Miss. Last week, the Pirates beat hated in-state rival NC State in overtime. On deck for the Pirates? A trip to Central Florida for C-USA East supremacy, the last two remaining unbeatens in the division.
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East Carolina’s defense is allowing more than 39 points per game, giving up 27 or more to every opponent they’ve faced this season. Their lone win by more than one score came against a truly hapless Memphis squad that has lost five different games by more than three TD’s this year. A bad spot and a bad defense make for a poor double digit favorite. (#317) 2* Take Marshall.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma @ Missouri
PICK: Oklahoma -3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This has been a completely one-sided series with OU currently on a 19-1 SU run. I believe we'll see more of the same in this one. Oklahoma is greatly improved over their early season form. Landry Jones is hitting his receivers on target and in stride. DeMarco Murray is tearing it up on the ground and Broyles is a matchup nightmare for opposing secondaries. But it's not just the offense. The Sooner defense is also playing better football as they head to Columbia. Yes, Mizzou was simply nasty last week in jumping out to a 27-point lead over Texas A&M. And QB Blaine Gabbert is one of the more underrated QBs in college football this season. But overall, the Tigers just don't matchup well with Oklahoma's combination of speed and athleticism. Very few CFB teams can play a pro style of defense. Oklahoma is one of the few, and it's tough for college QBs and skill position players to step up to the speed of the game that OU dictates. Missouri has been overrated by the public, and therefore the linesmaker, covering just four of their last 15 home games. In fact, they're on a 0-5 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range with Stoops as coach. OU won the last two meetings by a combined score of 100-38. And the last time they played in Columbia, the Sooners left with a 26-10 win. I expect another win and cover on Saturday night. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU @ Auburn
PICK: Under 52
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Auburn has a great offense. LSU has a great defense. So where do we go with this matchup? I say go under the total.
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Auburn's great offense is largely due to one player - quarterback Cameron Newton. He's certainly lived up to his hype having accounted for 25 touchdowns while leading the SEC in rushing and passing efficiency.
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Newton is more runner than passer. LSU primarily is a running team. Its quarterbacks are terrible by SEC standards. Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee have combined for just four touchdown passes, while throwing eight interceptions.
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This means lots of running plays, which is excellent for a total this high. Last year's total of 49 1/2 is shorter than this over/under. The teams combined for 41 points last year with LSU winning 31-10.
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Auburn's defense is mediocre. But LSU has a tremendous defense ranking third nationally in total defense (242.1 yards per contest) and 11th in scoring defense giving up 14.4 points per game. No SEC team stops the run better than LSU.
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Newton is a difference-maker. He's one of the best dual threats in the nation. Stop him and this is a dead nuts under game. LSU has the personnel to accomplish this.
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The key is coming up with some original wrinkles. The LSU coaching staff has the capability to do this because they have perhaps the best cornerback in the country in Patrick Peterson. They can do a lot of mixing up and confusing thanks to Peterson's versatility and skill level.
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Only one time in its last eight games - going back to its bowl game last season - has LSU surrendered more than 24 points in a game. During this span the Tigers have played Penn State, North Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Arkansas -9.5
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It's going to be tough for Ole Miss, who got up for Alabama last week, to be able to bring the same level of intensity to this contest. I just don't see the Rebels being as hungry as the Hogs in this spot. Arkansas will be out for blood following a loss at Auburn, during which Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Mallett has been cleared to play this week, and I completely expect him to make up for lost time. Arkansas has a personal bone to pick after losing to Ole Miss each of the last two seasons. The Ole Miss pass defense is one of the worst in the country, giving up 246 yards per game. I just don't see the Rebs having an answer for Mallett and Arkansas' No. 2 ranked passing offense (366.3 ypg). In fact, Arkansas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse, defeating these teams by an average score of 36.3 to 14.0. Lastly, the Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Arkansas. Lay the points with the Razorbacks.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulane vs. UTEPFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Take: UTEP -10FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Reason: Tulane (2-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) is a weak offensive team (21 ppg) for Bob Toledo, ranked 92nd in the country after averaging just 16 points per game in 2009. They’ve been rotating sophomore QB Ryan Griffin (5 TDs, 3 INTs) and freshman QB Kevin Moore (2 TDs, 2 INTs). The Green Wave is off a 41-23 home loss to Army, giving up 312 yards rushing. Tulane is 7-41 SU, 13-33-2 ATS its last 48 as a dog. UTEP (5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has a strong offense for Head Coach Mike Price. The Miners average 31 points with great balance behind junior RB Joseph Banyard and Senior QB Trevor Vittatoe (14 TDs, 5 picks).