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1* on Iowa -5.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wisconsin Badgers will have a very hard time getting up emotionally to face Iowa after such a draining win against then-No. 1 Ohio State last week. That's why this game has blowout written all over it as the Hawkeyes bring more energy into this one. Iowa is 4-0 at home this season, scoring 35.2 points/game while allowing a mere 4.2 points/game. The key to this one will be Iowa's run defense up against Wisconsin's rushing attack. We don't believe that the Badgers have the passing game to beat Iowa, therefore they stand no chance because the Hawkeyes will stop the run. Iowa is allowing just 84 rushing yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry this season. Iowa has the more balanced offense coming in. The Hawkeyes are scoring 34.3 points/game this season while averaging 253 passing yards/game and 166 rushing yards/game. The Badgers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawkeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Iowa and lay the points.
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3* on Central Michigan +9.5
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Reasons CMU covers:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (C MICHIGAN) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This is a 36-7 ATS System hitting 83.7% since 1992.
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2.) This is a huge letdown spot for Northern Illinois after 4 straight wins, while also a big bounce back spot for Central Michigan after 4 straight losses. With both team's recent results, the clear value is with the road dog in this one. Bet Central Michigan on the road.
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Play: Kansas Jayhawks +14
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The first rule of handicapping is don't lay points with a bad football team, especially a tariff of this size on the road. Texas A&M is just 3-3 on the season despite playing the likes of Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech and Florida International. In addition A&M has played just one true road game this year. Against teams from BCS Conferences the Aggies are 0-3 being outscored by a combined margin of 92-61. They are on a 4-11 spread run on the road and under Mike Sherman they are 3-7 ATS in enemy territory. If this isn't an undeserving double digit road favorite than we can't think of one.
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Make no mistake about it this Kansas squad isn't very good. The last two times they have taken the field they were beaten by a combined score of 114-14. But they should be well rested coming off a bye two weeks ago and playing Kansas State last Thursday. We always want to back a team off an embarrassing showing on national TV, especially playing at home in this price range. With A&M, Colorado and Iowa State the next three weeks the Jayhawks can save their season if they just cut back on turnovers. They were a negative six in that department the past two games. Turner Gill proved himself at Buffalo to get this job before the season. Coming off a schedule that has seen them play just once since October 2nd means extra teaching time for this competent coaching staff. We fully expect the Jayhawks to be very competitive in this game which is enough to cash a ticket in this price range. Keep in mind Kansas is 29-8 straight up on this field the past five plus seasons.
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1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes -23.5
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We may not find Ohio State in a more motivated spot this season. After falling from No. 1 in the polls with an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin, the Buckeyes will be out for some serious revenge. Adding to that motivation is the fact that Purdue was responsible for Ohio State's only Big Ten loss last year. The Buckeyes want the Boilermakers bad, and they won't hold anything back after last week's result. In addition, Purdue makes a lot of mistakes and that doesn't bode well for it here. Consider that Ohio State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams with 60 or more penalty yards per game under coach Tressel, defeating these teams by an average of 34 points. Take Ohio State.
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Colorado State Rams vs. Utah Utes
Play: Utah Utes -30
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The Utah Utes offense is in high gear and they are the most unappreciated unbeaten team in college football this season. Despite a 6-0 record, they are also 5-0-1 ATS and averaging 45.8 points per game behind a veteran offensive group.
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On Saturday, Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Utah, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB that have returned. This system is on fire at 26-4 ATS, with a perfect 3-0 record this year.
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LSU Tigers +6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Auburn Tigers are undefeated and rely on the offense to outscore teams. Quarterback Cameron Newton does it all for this team as he has thrown for 1278 yards and thirteen touchdowns and rushed for 860 and twelve touchdowns. The Auburn defense has not been good at all. For the season Auburn allows an average of 24.4 points and 367.9 yards per game and they were just involved in the highest scoring game in the history of the SEC last week against Arkansas. The LSU Tigers are also undefeated, but it is not always pretty. The LSU offense has not been very good due mostly to poor quarterback play from Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. The LSU defense has carried this team as they allow just 14.4 points and 242.1 yards per game. I expect the LSU defense to do a very good job against this Auburn offense that will be facing a top ten defense for the first time this season. Bad defense always make bad offense look better than what they really are and the holes in the Auburn defense will allow the LSU offense to put some points on the board. LSU is 4-1 against the spread in their last five as a road underdog and LSU has won five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. Take the points.
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LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
Play: LSU Tigers +6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There aren't many that would have predicted that these two SEC Tigers would be undefeated when meeting in week eight. Two completely different styles where Auburn is coming off scoring 65 points against Arkansas (28 in the final quarter) while LSU had trouble scoring points against McNeese State. LSU seems to have had Auburn's number of late winning the last three meetings bringing their series edge to 24-19-1. This game will come down to defense and LSU owns the tougher stop unit. Take LSU!
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LSU +6 vs AuburnFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes Boys!! We are standing in front of the 7-0 and #5 ranked Auburn Tigers this Saturday after they hung a 65 spot on the Arkansas Razorbacks last weekend. The Battle of the SEC BIG BOYS on the CBS National TV venue goes to the #6 LSU Tigers as a nasty dangerous dog here + 6. The way to win here cap defense heavy and the LSU Tigers can bring the heat on "D". They have our # 7th rated D nationally and the Exclusive "JR O" POWER RATINGS check in here @ Auburn - 2. The Lsu Tigers have a huge edge on the yards allowed and yes "Auburn Tigers" Qb Cam Newton is a flat out stud, BUT THEY CONTAIN HIM THIS WEEK!! Look at last weeks performance, 25 carries, 188 yards and 3 Tds vs a poor suspect Razorbacks D! This week Cam goes against a tough rock solid LSU Tigers D. These Auburn did get torched as they gave up 566 total yards to the Mallet & the Razorbacks and a nice hidden stat last week had the Razorbacks with 3 turnovers to the Auburn Tigers 0. The Auburn Tigers are poor 25% cover spot as a conference favoite of 4 to 10 points. The O'ster love the D here and we are sending it home on the LSU TIGERS + 6
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Illinois -13.5 vs Indiana
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Illinois has shown that their defense this year is better than most anticipated. That has been enough to beat some of the crummier teams thus far, but the reason the Illini couldn't get past Ohio St or Michigan St. was because of their offense. A freshman QB can do that to a program, though his future (Scheelhaase) looks bright.
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Luckily, that won't be a problem here against Indiana, a team that sports one of the worst defenses in College Football. The Illini will be able to move the ball largely using a running game, and thanks to that underrated defense, they'll cover this one, and win by close to 20. 17-21 would not be a crazy winning margin, at all.
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Georgia -4FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia is finally rolling again, pounding Vandy & Tennessee by a combined score of 84-14 in their last two games. They catch Kentucky at the perfect time, as the Wildcats are coming off an improbable 31-28 comeback win over favored South Carolina (UK trailed 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter). That makes this a natural letdown spot for UK off that upset win, and they'll most likely once again be without star RB Derrick Locke. No letdown for Georgia though, as they'll be looking to avenge last season's 34-27 home loss to these Wildcats. The Bulldogs dominated that game, outgaining UK 487-260, but a -4 turnover margin did them in. That won't happen in this one. Georgia gets their revenge and wins by a TD, making this a solid small action wager.
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California -3 vs Arizona St.
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It's easy to 'rip' on Cal, as the Bears seem to be perennial underachievers. This year's team opened with back-to-back wins of 52-3 and 53-7 but then fell flat on its face at Nevada, losing 52-31. A 10-9 loss at Arizona followed (Wildcats scored the game-winning TD with 1:11 left in the contest). A bye week allowed the Bears to regroup and crush UCLA 35-7 but after Oregon's 60-13 win over those same Bruins two days ago, that win hardly looks like much of anything. What makes one think "there's nothing new in Berkeley in 2010" was the team's 48-14 loss at USC last Saturday (Trojans led 42-0 at the half). It's feast or famine for Cal QB Riley, who has eight TD passes without an interception in the team's three wins but just three TDs and six INTs in its three losses. Those numbers are similar to last season, when Riley had 12 TDs and just four INTs in the team's eight wins while throwing just six TDs (four INTs) in the five losses. While it's easy to take 'shots' at Cal, the same can be said about ASU. Erickson made a triumphant arrival in Tempe back in 2007, as the Sun Devils went 10-3. However, they are off back-to-back losing season (5-7 and 4-8), including going 2-8 on the road. ASU is 3-3 this year with a heartbreaking one-point loss in Madison to Wisconsin plus a three-point loss in Corvallis to Oregon State. The Sun Devils won at Washington on October 9 and had a bye last Saturday but expecting them to win two straight on the conference road may be too much to ask. QB Threet has as many INTs as TDs (11 of each) plus the Sun Devils have been awful as away underdogs for the last decade. From 2000-09 they were just 9-22-2 as road dogs, including 2-6-2 under Erickson the last three seasons. The team is 1-0-1 as a road dog this year (Washington game closed as pick'em) but this has been a home teams series, with the visitor failing to cover in 10 of the last 12 matchups between ASU and Cal. Meanwhile, Cal enters this game having gone 11-2 as a home favorite since 2008. The Bears hosted the Sun Devils three times since the 2000 season, winning by 10, 28 and 27 points. Cal's awful performance at USC keeps this number WAY too low and like so often during the Tedford era, the Bears look awful one week, only to look like a top-25 team the next. Expect a "top-25 like effort" from the Bears in this one.
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Hawaii vs. Utah State
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Hawaii heads to Utah State this week riding a four-game winning streak, including last week's 27-21 victory over Nevada. As expected, Hawaii did most of their damage through the air, racking up 287 passing yards, compared to only 59 on the ground.
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Utah State's offense struggled mightily in their last game, a 24-6 loss to Louisiana Tech. The Aggies had all kinds of trouble moving the football, mustering a measly 195 total yards.
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Hawaii opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 67% of spread wagers. However, sharp money seems to be coming down on the home underdog, shrinking the line to -3.5. Sports Insights' Betting Systems agree, triggering one positive Steam Move and four positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+9.94 units), on Utah State.
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For the second straight week, we'll bet against the public, follow the Smart Money and take a home underdog.
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Utah State +3.5
Bettorsworld
3* Missouri +3
One of the most important and profitable things you can do as a handicapper is to find teams that are flying under the radar, and capitalize on them before the rest of the betting public catches on. Every year here at Bettorsworld we manage to find a team or two that fits the bill, and we ride that team to a nice profit. One such team for us this year has been the Missouri Tigers. For the past two weeks we used Missouri as a Key Release and both times they not only won for us, they dominated.
Now we are in very interesting waters. The cat, or in this case, the Tiger, is half way out of the bag. We say halfway, because there is still some doubt out there among the betting public. Here's a team playing some dominating football and yet they were as much as a 4 point home underdog when Bookmaker.com posted the opening lines for this weeks action. That's understandable when you consider who they are playing and their history against that team.
The opponent is Oklahoma, and Oklahoma has had Missouri's number over the years. In fact they have won 19 of the last 20 games in the series, with Missouri's only win coming in 1998. Even in Missouri's 2007 12-2 season, who do you suppose they lost to, twice? Yep, Oklahoma. They lost 41-31 during the regular season and 38-17 in the Big 12 Title game. 2008 was even worse. Oklahoma won 62-21.
We often talk about talent gaps and why they exist in college football. This series is a perfect example. These two Big 12 schools are recruiting from the same talent pool. If you're a star high school football player from that part of the country, 9 out of 10 times you're going to choose Oklahoma over Missouri. That always ads to the magnitude of a game like this. A win does wonders for the recruiting process and the future of both programs.
If Missouri is going to break through and grab their 2nd win over Oklahoma in ages, now would look to be their best opportunity ever. Missouri has every conceivable motivational edge in this game, to go along with what looks like a very talented team. For starters, we have revenge multiplied by 19, or at least by 12, going back to 1998. It's a home game, in prime time, before a National TV audience and a rabid home crowd, as underdogs. It's also a game against a higher ranked opponent, much higher actually, where a win simply catapults Missouri to the top of the charts. The big question is, is Missouri a paper tiger? (no pun intended) or are they the real deal? Read on.
The Missouri offense is led by QB Blaine Gabbert. He doesn't get enough credit from the media, and he is good at what he does. The QB has 10 TD passes and 3 INTs this year. Hardly explosive numbers, but he is leading his team to victory. They have yet to face a tough defense, but the Tigers are consistently getting over 400 yards of offense. The line is doing a good job of protecting Gabbert, as he has only been sacked 9 times this year. It will be up to Gabbert and co. to exploit a raucous home field environment and get points on the board.
The Oklahoma Sooners offense is led by QB Landry Jones. The youngster is doing a good job, but he has room for improvement. He has a very strong arm and can burn a secondary. He has 14 TD passes and 3 INTs this year. Missouri is arguably the best defense he has faced this year. The Sooners will also get plenty of offensive production from RB DeMarco Murray. He's a strong runner and has been mentioned in Heisman talks. On the year he has 11 TDs, and 668 yards.
Back to the paper tiger question. No question Oklahoma has played a tougher schedule to date, with wins over Texas and a blowout win over a very good Florida State team. However, if you're looking for some holes in the Oklahoma armor, consider this. They gave up 454 yards to a Cincinnati team that we feel simply isn't much to write home about. Air Force and Utah State also managed over 400 yards offensively, and both of those games were close. Texas is not the Texas of old this year and that one was an 8 point win. So the Sooners are 6-0, but 4 of those wins were close games. Certainly not dominating.
Also consider that Air Force came within 3 of the Sooners. Air Force lost to a good San Diego State team last week, who lost to Missouri earlier in the year. Just an attempt to show that perhaps Missouri and Oklahoma aren't too far away from each other talent wise this season.
If Missouri were squeaking by on their way to 6-0, we'd buy into the paper tiger theory. But that's not the case. They are dominating. They field the best defense in the Big 12 at 10.8 points per game and held Texas AM to their lowest point total since 2008 last week while sacking QB Jerrod Johnson 7 times. Just when you thought the defense couldn't get any better, this week they get their top pass rusher back, Aldon Smith.
Missouri is balanced, playing well on both sides of the ball. They face an Oklahoma team that has proved more than once this year that they can be vulnerable. There's some holes for sure. With all of the motivational edges to go along with an obviously talented team, we're going to go to the well one more time with the Missouri Tigers. We mentioned last week that Missouri had the best yards per point numbers in the Nation defensively. Now, while you always have to consider schedule strength, being tops in the land with that stat is something to take note of. Mizu hasn't played the toughest schedule, but they haven't played the weakest one either. Grab the field goal while it's still available.
3* North Carolina +6.5
You have to admire the job Butch Davis has done at North Carolina. Many college football teams would have packed it in right from the start with all of the allegations and suspensions due to NCAA violations but the Tar Heels have given 110% from the get go, including their first game of the season when they almost came back and beat LSU. This is a program that had very high hopes this year, and while the biggest goal of all, a National Title, is out of the picture, the ACC is still within grasp. But this game is a must.
Miami is in the same boat. Big things were expected this year, but their bubble was burst in the 2nd game of the year with a loss at Ohio State. Their other loss is puzzling. They were destroyed by Florida State 45-17. Safe to say that if they played FSU 10 more times, you'd see much different results. Chalk it up to an off day as the Hurricanes are a solid football team.
The Tar Heels have had Miami's number under Butch Davis. They have beaten Miami 3 straight, all as underdogs going in. All three were close games with 4, 6 and 9 point margins. The difference in last years game was the Tar Heel defense picking off two passes for TD's and we'd expect both defenses to figure prominently in the outcome this week.
After opening the season with two straight games giving up 30 points, the Tar Heels defense got back on track giving up 13, 17, 16, and 10 points, and while the strength of schedule in that 4 game stretch may not have been the toughest, Clemson was one of the four. Coming into the year the NC defense was the talk of college football. The defense was loaded with NFL prospects and figured to be among the best in the nation. The suspensions really took their toll early on, but the Tar Heels have gotten some of those players back and have managed to fill some holes in other spots. (Now they will have one more hole to fill. tight end Zack Pianalto, their leading receiver, has been declared out for the year with a fractured fibula.)
These two teams, at this point, are almost identical. They are both averaging about 29 points per game while both are giving up 20. Across the board, statistically, they hold similar positions when compared with the rest of the NCAA, with the notable difference of Miami being #4 against the pass. Yards per point numbers are identical on offense at 13 with the edge on defense going to the Tar Heels with 17 while the Hurricanes are a 15.5. Of significance here is that all of these stats were put up against schedule's dead even in strength.
Also of significance here is that the Tar Heels figure to keep improving week after week, as they get players back and as the players they have used to plug holes get more comfortable in their roles. We haven't seen the best Tar Heels team yet.
The bottom line here is that these are two teams of equal talent. Both field top notch defensive units that both figure to have a major say in the outcome here. Just like last years two NC picks were the difference, we'd expect more of the same this year.
One of the keys to our long term success here at Bettorsworld is finding live dogs. We probably play 80-85% underdogs. Give us an underdog with a chance to win the game straight up as we enter the 4th quarter and we will take it every time. We grade our handicapping a success on a given game if we're right there in the 4th quarter, regardless of whether we win or lose the game. 3 things can happen to that dog, and 2 are good. They either win straight up, making the points a bonus. They lose, but cover. Or lose but don't cover.
The Tar Heels fit the bill here. The likelihood of this game being decided by a TD or less is high. Note that as of this writing on Thursday, there are mostly +6.5's across the board. However, BetUs has the game at North Carolina +7. We'll put the game out at the most widely available number, but shop, shop, shop.......it makes a difference!
3* LSU +6
I bet that single die hard Auburn fan who went out of his way to boo HC Gene Chizik as he arrived on campus for the first time two years ago didn't envision his Tigers sitting at a perfect 7-0 with a huge chance to win the SEC. Oh no, he wouldn't have booed Chizik had he known that. The Auburn Tigers will continue their quest for perfection against a fellow unbeaten. That team is Les Miles's LSU Tigers. Fans are still clinging to their BCS Championship from 2006, but they certainly feel as if they could do it again this year. Something has got to give here, and these undefeated powerhouses will put on a show!
Riddle me this: How do you stop a 6-6 QB that can run, pass, and is incredibly hard to tackle? Have fun trying to answer that one. The QB I'm speaking about is Heisman candidate Cameron Newton. So far there hasn't been a team that can do it. Think of Cam as a "souped up" version of Michigan's Denard Robinson. He is almost a cross between Tim Tebow and Denard Robinson, taking both players best skills and turning them into touchdowns. He will have one of his toughest challenges of the year against LSU's defense, but don't expect him to go unheard from after helping Auburn put up 68 points on Arkansas the week before.
Auburn's defense is averaging just over 2 sacks per game. They allowed Arkansas to rack up 566 yards in total offense. Don't let the score of that game fool you. It was much, much closer than the score lets on. The Razorbacks played without QB Ryan Mallett for more than a half, and several questionable calls went in favor of the Tigers. LSU isn't half as good on offense as Arkansas is, but the Tigers will need to show they can get stops. They had trouble doing that against teams like Clemson, and South Carolina. If they don't play a big game it's very likely that LSU will not only cover, but win this one outright
Cam Newton won't run all over LSU like he has done most teams. He will get his yards, but it won't be to the degree in which he has in the past. Bottom line, the Auburn Tigers must step it up on defense in this huge home game.
The LSU Tigers stand undefeated at 7-0, but there are reasons to worry. The offense has been very short of spectacular, and they allowed McNeese State to hang around way too long despite winning that game 32-10. Les Miles gaffes and clock management are enough to stop the heart of any fan. Can they overcome this? The short answer is yes. This team has proved they can win the road this year with big victories over North Carolina and Florida. The game against Florida two weeks ago was one of their best offensive efforts of the year. It will be up to Stevan Ridley and Jordan Jefferson get points on offense.
If LSU is going to win this one, it will be because of a monumental defensive effort. They held a potent West Virginia offense to 179 offensive yards. They stopped explosive RB Noel Devine in that game. They were able to hold Florida to just 243. In the past three games the Tigers have recorded 10 sacks. Turnovers will be big here. LSU hasn't had a ton, but they aren't giving the ball away either. If they can keep Auburn in the 250-300 yardage range there is a very good chance they can win this and cover the 6.5 point spread.
There are different ways to be 7-0 in college football. One way is to be a dominant team and simply beat every team you face in every aspect of every game. That would be, say, Alabama last year. Then there's these two teams. Neither team is dominating. Both have caught huge breaks on their way to 7-0. Both could easily have 2 or 3 losses each.
Of the two, Auburn would seem to have more of a direct path to the SEC title AND a potential BCS title game. After LSU, they have Ole Miss, Chattanooga, Georgia and Alabama. LSU has Alabama and Arkansas. Either way, this game is HUGE for both sides.
Auburn as been squeaking by. All of their wins against "good" teams have been by 3 points, with an 8 point come from behind win over South Carolina and then last weeks game against Arkansas where they trailed by 6 in the 4th quarter. Hardly dominating. One set of numbers we use has LSU pulling the upset here, all of our numbers show the game closer than 6. LSU +6 is the play here.
3* Iowa -5.5
Ohio State and Michigan are usually the talk of the Big Ten, but this article will feature two teams that beat them last week. The Wisconsin Badgers won a big home game 31-18 over then #1 Ohio State, and Iowa dispatched Michigan 38-28. In the always tough Big Ten, both of these teams need to get some momentum if they want the Big Ten title and the trip to the Rose Bowl that comes with it. They are similar teams and this game will be won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes. Wisconsin is currently a 6 point underdog. Let's see how they stack up against each other!
We usually like to start off with a look at the offense, but the defense HC Kirk Ferentz has put together at Iowa is too good to not mention first. They are giving up a paltry 13.2 PPG. That ranks them 6th in the nation. In terms of offensive yardage, they allow 292 per game. All this is being without picking up an excessive amount of sacks or INTs. It's truly a hard nose and stubborn defense at Iowa. They allowed 523 yards against Michigan, but that was most like an aberration. Denard Robinson presents a unique challenge for any defense. Handling Wisconsin's John Clay won't be easy, but expect the Hawkeyes to meet the challenge vigorously.
Now that we've mention Iowa's defense, lets glance at the offense. Ricky Stanzi leads the charge at QB for this team. He doesn't make many mistakes and has passed for 13 TDs and 2 INTs this year for a total of 1,456 yards. The offensive line for Iowa has been rock solid. In their past three games they have given up just a single sack. RB Adam Robinson has rushed for 624 yards and 8 TDs this year. Iowa is a dynamic team that can get points in both the air and on the ground, but aren't especially explosive at either. Look for them to try and score early as this is a very important home game for the Hawkeyes.
The defense is good in Wisconsin. The Badgers are allowing only 308 yards of offense each game. They are hell for QBs, sacking them 8 times in their last 3 games. They got to Ohio State's Terrele Pryor 4 times. They appear to be most vulnerable against the run, but conversely the secondary is sharp. It will be up to them to stop, or at least slow down Iowa's Adam Robinson. They also will have to focus on pressuring Ricky Stanzi. If they can stifle Robinson and get to Stanzi a few times they can pull off yet another upset in Big Ten play.
The Badger's offense is steadied by Heisman candidate RB John Clay. He has 11 TDs and 796 yards in 2010. He put together a bang up game against Ohio State, finding the end zone twice while picking up 104 yards. Scott Tolzien runs the offense as the QB. He isn't a spectacular player, but he is "good enough". This offense emphasizes the running game so all they need from Tolzien is that he minimizes mistakes. He did that well against Arizona State, completing 19 of 25 passes for 246 yards and a TD. All of this will take place behind an offensive line that is massive.
There are two plays worth considering here. One is the Iowa. They have had the upper hand in this series covering 8 of the last 10 and winning the last 3 straight up. Last weeks score against Michigan is really misleading. This Iowa defense has been fantastic. The one thing you worry about is the schedule strength. This game against Wisconsin and in a few weeks against Ohio State will be their toughest games of the season. Wisconsin passed their big test. Will Iowa?
The other play with value here is the under. These teams want to run the ball. Both have been successful doing so. That's why they build these massive offensive lines in Wisconsin and the rest of the big 10. The average score in this series the last 10 times they have played is 38 points. In 8 of those 10 there were less than 48 points scored, which is the total in this game. Iowa is giving up on average, 13 points per game while Wisconsin is giving up 18, which is exactly what they held Ohio State to last week, a team that averages 40 points per game. The total is too high here.
So two recommendations here.
Iowa -5.5
Iowa/Wisconsin Under 48
Tom Freese
Fresno St. at San Jose St.
Prediction: Fresno St.
Fresno St is 5-2 straight up this year. The have a quality win over Cincinnati. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games and they are 12-5-1 ATS their last 18 games after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS their 7 meetings with the Spartans. Fresno St coach Pat Hill is one of the best coaches in the country. San Jose St is 1-6 straight up this year. The Spartans are 2-14 ATS their last 16 Conference games. San Jose St is 0-7 ATS their last 7 home games and they are 5-16 ATS their last 21 games after allowing more than 450 yards in their last game.
John Ryan
Penn State at Minnesota Gophers
Prediction: Penn State
5* graded play on Penn State as they take to the road to play Minnesota in a Big-10 matchup. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game by 10 or more points. Penn State is in position for a huge blowout winner as they have the superior offense and defense. They are also supported by a system that has gone 25-4 ATS for 86% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and are average teams posting +/- 0.6 yards per play differential facing a terrible team being out gained by 1.2+ yards per play after being out gained by 175+ total yards in their previous game. Penn State was out gained by 202 yards last week in their 33-13 loss to Illinois and they will be loaded for gopher in this game. Take Penn State.