VEGAS EXPERTS
Wyoming at BYU
It speaks volumes on how far the BYU program has fallen that they're favored by such a minimal margin here against a Wyoming team they've beaten by a combined 96-0 the last two seasons. However, the Cowboys should be ready for them after playing one of the most difficult College Football schedules to date, including Texas, Boise State, Air Force, TCU and Utah. Their only game against a non-ranked lined opponent thus far resulted in a 20-15 upset win at Toledo. Christensen's team is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road coming off a conference game.
Play on: Wyoming
Frank Jordan
Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State +6
These two times are combined 11-1 on the season. Nebraska is 5-1, but that one loss has come in Big 12 play which came last week against Texas. Oklahoma is 6-0 and at the 14th spot in the league simply by outscoring their opponent putting up at least 34 points a game. Look for a shoot out in this one with the Cowboys coming out on top when the dust settles for another home win pushing them to 7-0 on the year.
Steve Merril
Texas A&M vs. Kansas
Play: Texas A&M -14
Texas A&M enters this game off three straight losses and this will provide plenty of motivation for a blowout win on the road against a terrible Kansas squad. Texas A&M is on a 0-4 ATS slide, but the results have been a bit misleading. The Aggies narrow 27-20 win versus Florida International was due to a 5-0 turnover deficit and then Texas A&M outgained Oklahoma State 535-351 in total yards, but lost 38-35 due to a 5-3 turnover disadvantage. The Aggies then lost a close 24-17 game versus Arkansas with a 4-2 turnover deficit. Those back-to-back close losses led to a flat performance last week versus undefeated Missouri, but A&M should rebound against a struggling Kansas squad this week. Kansas has lost 55-7 and 59-7 the past two weeks versus Baylor and Kansas State and Texas A&M is a more talented team that both the Bears and Wildcats. Kansas is a terrible defensive team that is allowing 32.0 points per game and 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 24.4 ppg and 5.4 yppl). The Wildcats have been equally weak defending both the run and the pass, allowing 5.1 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 4.6 ypr and 6.7 ypp). Texas A&M holds a substantial defensive edge in this game as the Aggies are allowing just 22.5 points per game and only 4.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 28.3 ppg and 5.8 yppl). Texas A&M should have no problem containing a weak Kansas offense that is averaging just 17.2 points per game and only 4.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 21.6 ppg and 5.3 yppl).
Charlie Scott
Indiana vs. Illinois
Play: Indiana +13.5
I made this line Illinois -6, and don't understand how Illinois could be a double digit favorite vs a Big 10 conference foe. Only time Illinois was favored this season was vs N Illinois (-7) and they failed to cover that winning 28-22. Todays game will be a matchup of contrasting styles as Indiana has a potent offense, but no defense, and Illinois has a pretty good defense, but an inept offense. Have to play against Illinois as a double digit favorite vs a Indiana team that can put points up on the scoreboard.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arkansas -9.5
It's going to be tough for Ole Miss, who got up for Alabama last week, to be able to bring the same level of intensity to this contest. I just don't see the Rebels being as hungry as the Hogs in this spot. Arkansas will be out for blood following a loss at Auburn, during which Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Mallett has been cleared to play this week, and I completely expect him to make up for lost time. Arkansas has a personal bone to pick after losing to Ole Miss each of the last two seasons. The Ole Miss pass defense is one of the worst in the country, giving up 246 yards per game. I just don't see the Rebs having an answer for Mallett and Arkansas' No. 2 ranked passing offense (366.3 ypg). In fact, Arkansas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse, defeating these teams by an average score of 36.3 to 14.0. Lastly, the Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Arkansas. Lay the points with the Razorbacks.
Jack Jones
Mississippi Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Pick : Mississippi Rebels +9.5
Arkansas needs to be on upset alert Saturday. The Razorbacks now have two conference losses, all but killing their chances to reach the SEC title game and play for a national championship. They were beat 65-43 last week at Auburn in a game where Ryan Mallett had to leave with a concussion. Mallett is probable to play, but I don't think he or the entire Arkansas team will be able to get over the mental hurdle that came with their loss to the Tigers last week.
In comes Ole Miss, a team that is starting to hit their stride behind the play of QB Jeremiah Massoli. The Rebels are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, with their only loss coming 10-23 at Alabama last week as 20-point underdogs. The Rebels held the Crimson Tide to just 319 yards of total offense, and not only is their offense improving, their defense is also getting better as the season progresses. Ole Miss is 12-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992. The Rebels are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. That trend cannot be ignored here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rebels pull off the upset against a mentally drained Arkansas squad. Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LSU Tigers +6
Auburn has managed to win a number of close games this season, but this is the week it may finally go down. LSU has one of the best defenses in college football, and that defense should help LSU take the Auburn down to the wire. LSU has won 3 straight and 5 of the last 7 in this matchup, and both of those losses came by just 1 and 4 points respectively.
LSU has also been a solid investment as an underdog in this range. In fact, it is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, including 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
LSU has taken some heat because of the questionable coaching skills of Les Miles, but the guy can recruit. And, in case you haven't noticed, those top flight recruits win a lot of ball games. LSU has the much better defense, which gives it the edge in what should be a tight game. Take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes -23.5
We may not find Ohio State in a more motivated spot this season. After falling from No. 1 in the polls with an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin, the Buckeyes will be out for some serious revenge. Adding to that motivation is the fact that Purdue was responsible for Ohio State's only Big Ten loss last year. The Buckeyes want the Boilermakers bad, and they won't hold anything back after last week's result. In addition, Purdue makes a lot of mistakes and that doesn't bode well for it here. Consider that Ohio State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams with 60 or more penalty yards per game under coach Tressel, defeating these teams by an average of 34 points. Take Ohio State.
SPORTS WAGERS
Rice +22½ over CENTRAL FLORIDA
3:30 PM EST. College Football is separated into two tiers: The BCS and non-BCS. Occasionally, a Boise State or Hawaii will crash the big BCS bowl games and make a splash nationally but at the end of the day there are teams from the power conferences and non-power conferences. Why is this important? Because no team from Conference-USA should ever be 22½-point favorite over anybody, let alone a very mediocre Central Florida team. It is simply handicapping suicide to lay double-digit points with teams from the non-power conferences because the talent level is just that much lower from the BCS schools. Yes, Central Florida is 4-2 but hasn’t played a decent team yet; their four wins have come against FCS South Dakota, Buffalo, Marshall and UAB – not exactly a murderers row of opponents. Those betting the Knights will point to their 13.8 points allowed per game average as a sign of an elite defensive unit but again those statistics aren’t worth the paper their printed on; the Knights don’t have a single NFL prospect on the defensive side of the ball and have benefitted from beating FBS teams that rank 90th, 107th, and 106th respectively in points per game. Rice isn’t a good football team by any stretch of the imagination but they come off an impressive conference win against Houston and are still highly motivated to become bowl eligible this year. That’s important because the effort will be there but this wager isn’t about the Owls ability to beat the Knights. They will most likely lose this game but that’s beside the point. If you were to analyze every single player on each of these rosters nobody would proclaim Rice to be 22 points worse than the Knights and that’s the reason behind this play. Play: #384 Rice +22½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
BUFFALO +8 over Temple
12:00 PM EST. Both of these teams have posted winless seasons this decade but the tide has turned for both of these programs since those dark days. The Bulls won the MAC title in 2008 while Temple has already posted five wins this season – more than 2005 and 2006 combined. The key to today’s match-up will be the play of Buffalo’s new quarterback Alex Zordich, who will be replacing ineffective Jerry Davis after last week’s 45-14 loss to Northern Illinois. Offense has been the Bulls main issue for most of the season but there is reason for optimism; for one Temple allows opponents to gain almost 370 yards of total offense per game while recording only three interceptions the entire season. If the Bulls can score points their underrated defense should make stops as they’ve been making all season; they rank first in the MAC in passing yards against, first in completion percentage against, third in rushing yards against and fourth in rushing yards allowed per play at 3.8. Temple’s pass offense is frankly terrible and won’t be a problem for Buffalo so the question becomes why is Temple laying eight? It seems the books have bought into the five wins the Owls have recorded thus far but there isn’t a single impressive victory on the list and a closer look reveals that Temple could easily be 3-4 if not for an overtime win against Central Michigan and a missed two-point conversion last week by Bowling Green. So again we have a case where a team in a non-BCS conference is laying more than a touchdown on the road against a team with similar if not better talent because of an inflated win total. Overlay and upset possibility. Play: #320 Buffalo +8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAYS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -10 over Cenral Michigan
The overall numbers in this one are fairly even as CMU is 45th in total offense and 50th in defense, while NIU is 41st offensively and 39th defensively. NIU does average 5 ppg more and allow 2.5 ppg less than the Chippewas. Having said all that let's look at recent history here. NIU comes in rolling after getting bak QB harnish from suspension, as they have won 4 of their last 5 SU and 5 in a row ATS, including a narrow defeat at Illinois and an outright upset at Minnesota. NIU has gone 3-0 in the MAc, outscoring their opponents by 27 ppg, while allowing just 260 ypg in the process. On the other sideline we find a CMU squad that is struggling as they lost to Ball State at home as 19.5 favs, lost at Va Tech by 24 and lost at home to Miami-O as 13.5 favs, in their last 3 games. Ouch 2 home upset losses to 2 of the weaker MAC teams. These teams are clearly headed in opposite directions and with NIU coming in 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games in the series, I see no reason why they can't easily cover the 10 spot here.
Power Angle Play--- IOWA -6 over Wisconsin
John Clay meet the 7th ranked rushing defense in the nation. The Hawkeyes come in allowing just 83.8 ypg on the ground and just 3.0 ypc. At home they're even tougher allowing justv 67.5 ypg and 2.6 ypc. Overall Iowa's defense ranks 13th (288.8 ypg) and 6th in points allowed 13.2 ppg. The Badgers do own a slight offensive edge, but this game is about 2 things. Location and Letdown. The hawkeyes are 4-0 at homwe and have outscored those opponents by 31 ppg, while allowing a measely 4.3 ppg in the process. The 2nd part of the equation is letdown as the Badgers come in off a huge upset of then #1 Ohio State. Even without the upset this would be a tough place to play as Iowa has been lights out dominant at home. Iowa by DD here. POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY--- Kirk Ferentz is 15-1 ATS vs teams that average 5.25 rushing ypc as coach of the Hawkeyes, while over the last 5 yrs underdogs of 3.5 to 10 are just 6-30 ATS when off BB conference wins vs an opponent off a road win.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Power Angle Play--- NORTHWESTERN +5.5 over Michigan State
This is a great spot for Northwestern as Michigan State comes in off 2 big upsets in their last 3 games, are off a comeback win vs illinois and have Iowa on deck. LW the Spartans trailed Illinois 6-3 at the half and used 3 2nd half illini TO's to win by 20. well they can't expect the same gifts from a well coached Wildcat squad that is 19th in the nation in TO margin. Stae does have slight offensive and special teams edges, while the defenses are about even, plus both QB's are in the top 11 in pass efficiency. The Dog is 7-1 ATS, while Big 10 teams are 4-0 ATS off a bye this year. Flat spot for sparty here as the Cats pull the outright upset. POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY--- The dog is 17-3 ATS in Northwesterns last 20 lined games, while the Cats are 16-4 ATS at home vs teams that average 200 ypg rushing or more.
Total Of The Week--- BYU/ Wyoming Under 44.5
The Cougars are in unfamilliar territory offensively, as tehy are usually one of the best scoring teams in the nation, but this years team checks in at 107th in total offense (303.2 ypg) and 115th in scoring offense (14.7 ppg). BYU's defense has been a sore spot this year, but last week Bronco took the reins and they played better, allowing a potent TCU run game (279 ypg) to gain just 108 yards on the ground. BYU did trail that game just 3-0 till TCU scored 2 late first half TD's to go up by 17 and then they scored just 14 more in the 2nd half. BYU's defense should have little trouble containing a Wyoming attack that is 119th in rushing (68.9 ypg), 100th in passing (163.4 ypg), 120th in total offense (232.3 ypg and 119th in scoring (11.6 ppg). Talk about an inept offense. Their defense has been battered, but when you take on Boise, Texas, TCU, and Utah, it will show up in the Numbers. BYU's offense is nothing close to those other 4 teams. Even if BYU can muster 24 or 27 points in this one I just don't see the Cowboys, putting mor than 10-13 points on the board here. This one will be played right around 38-40.
Auburn/ LSU Over 51.5
Despite the fact that the UNDER is 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series I still see this one going over the total. Yes the LSU defense is strong, but they will be going up a gainst a hot Auburn offense that is averaging 47.3 ppg in their last 4 games overall and 41.5 ppg at home this year. Auburn play two solid defenses at home this year (Clemson and South Carolina) and averaged 31.5 ppg in those two games. I clearly see Auburn putting up 30+ in this one. LSU's offense isn't as potent, but they have averaged 30 ppg on the road and will be facing an Auburn defense that has allowed 35 ppg in their 2 SEC home games. I see no less than 24 out of LSU here. This will not be the defensive battle as in years past, so i look for at least 55 in this one.
Matt Rivers
I don’t trust Clemson and I certainly do not trust the Tigers’ coach in Dabo Swinney. Sure it’s not going to be easy for Paul Johnson’s squad here in Death Valley but the Yellow Jackets can certainly win this game so why not grab a field goal plus a few.
Kyle Parker is solid but he hasn’t been the same ever since the grueling overtime loss at Auburn. I’m not sure if he’s still really banged up physically and or just emotionally drained from the rough early going. Clemson overall has talent like always but they are a 3-3 football team that also always seems to have the potential to wet the bed. Losing CJ Spiller to the NFL was huge and as always the Tigers are up and down and underachieving more times than not.
I think we have come to realize that Tech this season isn’t as good as last season after losing studs like Derrick Morgan, Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer and Morgan Burnett but the triple option has been good enough and the defense, despite not being all that play making, has at least been serviceable led by Tarrant and Jefferson. Joshua Nesbitt is a total baller and will rumble for his usual 100 yards leading the team to probably right around 300 on the ground.
The Tech passing game isn’t much but it’s not supposed to be and at least the last few weeks Nesbitt has completed some passes. The quarterback has shown the ability to throw the ball and therefore Clemson does have to somewhat respect that part of the game and can’t fully sell out against Nesbitt, Allen and Jones running the rock.
The Jackets may not win the ACC for a second straight season but they do control their own destiny right now and frankly I’m not all that afraid of this Clemson team and in the end am fine with scooping up whatever points I can.
The pick: GA Tech
O.C. Dooley
Louisville -3
This game actually opened as a virtual pick-em, but things have changed with news that the visitor has LOST their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. Connecticut’s Cody Endres initially missed the opening 3 games of this campaign, but invigorated the passing attack upon his return putting up statistics (60% completions, 5 TD passes) that catch the eye. Endres in game-four replaced erratic senior Zach Frazier who today remains in the reserve role as the Huskies are going with REDSHIRT FRESHMAN Michael Box as their starter in a hostile environment. Not only has Connecticut just lost their starting quarterback (university suspension) for the remainder of the season, one of the team’s offensive linemen has been ousted from the troubled program and is transferring to another school. There is plenty of motivation for Louisville as they are in “triple revenge” against Connecticut where 2 of those contests were decided by slim “single digit” margins. The location of this late afternoon contest is critical considering that HOME teams are UNDEFEATED this season where it counts (5-0 ATS) in games involving Connecticut. So far this year with a new head coach, Louisville is a positive 2-1 ATS when cast as a favorite, with the lone setback as a massive 30-point choice against a Division I-AA opponent. Since 1992 Louisville is a most productive 12-2 ATS when off consecutive games that went above the total
Jimmy Moore
North Carolina @ Miami Fla
Pick: North Carolina +6.5
Miami is a terrible home favorite and they looked quite lethargic in their victory over Duke. North Carolina has covered 5 of their 6 games this season even with all of their off field troubles and they have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series.
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-160)
As for my comp winner, going with Philadelphia and starter Roy Oswalt (14-14, 2.80 ERA) today to even up the NLCS and send this thing to a big Game 7 on Sunday. Oswalt has never lost in Philadelphia (10-0 lifetime), either as a member of the Phillies or the Astros, and he will come out tonight and deliver a big performance to win Game 6 and even this series.
Oswalt was spectacular in Game 2 of this series, pitching eight innings and allowing just one run on three hits while striking out nine in the 6-1 victory in Philadelphia. He came back and stepped in when needed in Game 4, pitching the ninth inning of a tie game, but got hung with the loss when he gave up the walk-off sac fly to the Giants’ Juan Uribe in San Francisco.
Now Oswalt will come back out and deliver a gem. In his last 10 starts, he’s held the opposition to one or no runs in eight of those 10. He’s faced the Giants five times this season and allowed three runs or less each time. As a member of the Phillies, he’s beaten the Giants twice, allowing a total of four runs on nine hits in 15 innings of work, all at home.
Lefty Jonathan Sanchez (13-10, 3.00 ERA) is on the hill for the Giants and he threw opposite Oswalt in Game 2, giving up three runs (two earned) over six innings of the 6-1 loss. He has been as good as any Giants’ starter down the stretch, giving up two earned runs or less in each of his last nine outings.
Oswalt went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 13 games after joining the Phillies and he was 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his last 10 starts. The offense will come through for him and put a few runs on the board. Philadelphia is on surges of 38-15 at home, 4-1 in playoff home games, 23-11 in their last 34 playoff games, 38-16 against the N.L. West and 49-23 after an off-day.
This series is headed to a Game 7 and Roy Oswalt will deliver a gem in tonight’s Game 6. Lay the juice and play the Phillies tonight.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Georgia Tech (+5) at CLEMSON
As for a Saturday comp play, G-Man taking the points with the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech as they pay a visit to Death Valley.
Tech is 3-0 straight up under Paul Johnson versus Dabo Swinney in their young tenures at the schools, and that includes an ACC Championship Game win last season.
The Yellow Jackets are on a 6-2 dog spread run their last 8, and also 11-5 versus the spread their last 16 away games.
Georgia Tech has picked things up since starting the season at 2-2, as the Yellow Jackets have scored straight up wins in their last 3.
Clemson meanwhile just snapped a 3 game losing streak with a blowout win over Maryland, but the Terps are no where near the class of the Jackets right now.
The points work again in this series, take Tech.
4♦ GEORGIA TECH