Karl Garrett
Wisconsin at IOWA (-6)
Big 10 comp play from Iowa City, and I say lay the wood with the Hawkeyes as they take advantage of a Wisconsin team that will suffer a letdown after upending # 1 Ohio State last Saturday at home.
For one thing, this game is not at Camp Randall Stadium, and for another the Badgers defense will have a difficult time stopping Mr. Stanzi from going ballistic.
Iowa is on a 2 game series win and cover streak, and the Hawkeyes last 8 wins have ALL come by double-digits.
The Hawks are a righteous 7-1 against the spread the last 8 in this series, while the Badgers have not been a "go-with" when getting points, sporting a 3-7 road dog mark their last 10 catching the points.
Lay it with Iowa, as Kirk Ferentz' team takes Wisconsin to the wood shed.
5♦ IOWA
Chris Jordan,
South Carolina (-12') at VANDERBILT
Trust me, after the meltdown last week against Kentucky, the Gamecocks have likely had it drilled into their heads by coach Steve Spurrier this past week about how they let one get away. Their defense was probably tweaked, while you're likely going to see the Gamecocks use this game to vent their frustrations on Vanderbilt's injury-depleted defense.
The recent trend of close games with the Commodores is going to come to an end with a blowout over the inferior Commodores.
And while USC should have their way running the football against the Commodores, Vandy lacks the firepower to keep up with the USC offense.
Though I do believe this will be close at the beginning, the Gamecocks will take control of this one and never leave it in doubt come the second half, pulling away for a double-digit win.
2♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Chuck O'Brien
Wyoming at BYU (-10')
On to today’s second of two complimentary college football selections, and let’s take BYU as a double-digit home chalk against Wyoming.
How can the Cougars – who are just 2-5 on the season, who are coming off a 31-3 loss at TCU, who have scored 16 points or less in five of seven games this year and who average just 14.7 points per game on the season – be laying this big of a number? Because Wyoming’s offense makes BYU’s attack look like Oregon’s or Boise State’s. In six games (five losses) against FBS competition this year, Wyoming has scored a TOTAL of 33 points and been outgained by a total of – get this! – 1,593 yards.
That means opposing teams have outgained the Cowboys by an average of 265.5 yards per game in the last six contests! Granted, four of those games have come against highly ranked teams (Boise State, Texas, TCU and Utah), but that’s inexcusable! And in three Mountain West Conference contests (Utah, TCU and Air Force), Wyoming has been outscored 95-20 and been out-yarded by a 1,454-614 margin, including 864-316 on the ground.
Translation: If BYU can’t move the football against this team and if its defense – which actually played very well at TCU last week, allowing just three points until just before halftime – can’t keep the Pokes out of the end zone, then something is seriously, seriously wrong in Provo. In fact, this is what I like to call a “get healthy” game for the Cougars. And even though this BYU squad isn’t nearly as complete as ones of recent years, it’s still worth noting that the Cougars have scored six straight double-digit wins over Wyoming, cashing in all six games. That includes a 44-0 home win in 2008 and a 52-0 road win in 2009.
5♦ BYU
Bobby Maxwell
Nebraska at OKLAHOMA ST. (+6)
As for my comp winner, Nebraska has had two bad outings in its last three games and they are walking into trouble today in Stillwater, Okla. to take on unbeaten and high-flying Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are underdogs at home and I’m going to grab the points and play them, fully expecting to see them come out on top when all is said and done today.
The Cornhuskers looked very lethargic in a 17-3 win over tiny South Dakota State back on Sept. 25, then went to Kansas State and blew out the Wildcats before returning home last weekend and getting manhandled by Texas, 20-13 as 10-point favorites. Freshman QB Taylor Martinez is a dual threat, but he’s really all the Nebraska offense brings to the table. Contain him and you’ve contained this offense.
Texas held the Cornhuskers to 202 total yards and Martinez got pulled from the game in the second half. There goes his swagger! Now he has to come into Stillwater where the Cowboys have won six straight games and are 16-3 over the last three seasons.
Oklahoma State has one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 49.5 points a game and 535.3 yards, trailing only top-ranked Oregon in both categories. QB Brandon Weeden averages 327.7 passing yards per game, good for second in college football. WR Justin Blackmon leads the nation with a 159.2 receiving yards per game and he put up a career-high 207 yards and 10 catches against Texas Tech a week ago.
The Cowboys are on ATS surges of 12-3-1 in October games, 11-5 after a spread-cover and 4-0 overall. In this series, Oklahoma State has cashed in five of the last six clashes, including each of the last two games in Stillwater. Last time these two met was 2007 when Oklahoma State scored a 45-14 road win as 3 ½-point favorites. Their last meeting in Oklahoma came in 2006 with the Cowboys winning 41-29 as a 5 ½-point underdog.
I’m grabbing the points to play it safe, but I don’t think the number is going to come into play. Oklahoma State is likely going to win this outright, but to avoid any last-minute messes, let’s grab the points with the Cowboys.
4♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Derek Mancini
Nebraska at OKLAHOMA STATE (+6)
As far as Nebraska-Okie State is concerned, like most people, I'm expecting the Cornhuskers to bounce back here, BUT not by as much as bettors seem to think. Truth is Nebraska ran into a desperate and rested Texas team that took them to task in their 20-13 home loss. But what that game also did was provide a blueprint for attacking the Huskers on both sides of the ball. No doubt the Cowboys will follow the same formula, and coupled with the home field, it'll be enough to keep this game inside the number.
So what's the formula? Ball control on offense, and stack the line on the other side of the football. Oklahoma State may not have the defensive pieces to stop the run like Texas, but it should be noted that they surrender only 3.3 yards per carry. That's partly a result of team's attacking their secondary, but the Cornhuskers don't have the weapons to go aerial, so Okie State will be able to stack the box regardless. What the Cowboys do have is an offense to go toe-to-toe with anyone, featuring the 3-headed monster of Weeden, Blackmon, and Hunter. While the Cowboys will have a tough time keeping up their averages of 49 ppg and 535 total yards, they will attack this Nebraska defense with enough success to make things interesting.
There's no question the public is in love with this Nebraska team and Taylor Martinez especially. But after watching this game I suspect most will come away with a healthy respect for what is one of the most dynamic offenses in all of college football. Like I said, the Cornhuskers will rebound here, but I don't see much more than a field goal separating these two teams. Oklahoma State plus the points over Nebraska Saturday.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Craig Davis
Washington at ARIZONA (-6')
Today's free play is on the Arizona Wildcats over Washington. The Huskies have screwed me more than once this year and I'm not going to fall for their act anymore. This offense is average and will be missing an offensive lineman and a starting WR. The defense, well, to put it nicely, stinks. They let BYU score 23 points against them. They allowed Nebraska to score 56 in their back yard. They even allowed Syracuse to score 21 points in Week 2.
Yes, I realize Arizona will be without starting QB Nick Foles, who sprained his knee against Washington State last week. But I'm honestly not that worried about it as backup Matt Scott was actually the starter for three games last year before Foles eventually took his job. Scott finished last week's game by completing 22 of 33 passes for 220 yards and didn't really seem to get rattled.
With Foles out, expect the Arizona offense to rely heavily on the running of Nic Grigsby and change-of-pace back Antolin. Grigsby is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and has already scored six times this year out of a shared backfield.
Arizona also gets Juron Criner back from a toe injury that has kept him out the last two weeks. Criner leads Arizona's receiving corps with 33 catches for 551 yards and three TDs.
Arizona's offense, despite scoring just 24 points last week, averages 31 points per game this year... which is exactly the amount of points the Huskies allow per game. Arizona is only being asked to give 6 1/2 points at home and I think that's more than fair. Take the Wildcats as your free play of the day.
4♦ ARIZONA
Stephen Nover
LSU (+5') at AUBURN
Today I offer a free selection of LSU to cover against Auburn in the battle to see who remains the lone unbeaten team in the SEC.
Auburn has the great offense. LSU owns the great defense. I like LSU and defense to prevail in this matchup.
Auburn is mainly a one-man show on offense as quarterback Cameron Newton has more than lived up to his hype leading the SEC in rushing and passing efficiency while accounting for 25 touchdowns.
Newton is a monster. He's 6-foot-6 and weighs 250. Auburn doesn't do anything to trick the opposition. They just let Newton run and pass his way to victory. But Newton is an inviting target to an LSU defense that probably, along with Alabama, is the hardest-hitting unit in the country.
Newton is more runner than passer. LSU has the top run defense in the SEC. The Tigers rank No. 3 nationally in total defense and are No. 11 in scoring defense allowing 14.4 points per game.
LSU has the versatility defensively to mix and confuse Newton. Patrick Peterson probably is the best cornerback in the country. Look for LSU to throw Auburn a lot of curves.
Auburn's defense is mediocre at best ranking 63rd. The Tigers just allowed 43 points, 30 first downs and 566 yards to Arkansas last week. LSU doesn't have nearly the offense or quarterback the Razorbacks do, but they have a good runner in Steven Ridley and a good wideout in Terrance Toliver.
LSU coach Les Miles rotates quarterbacks Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. I'm not fond of either one, but Auburn does yield a 66 percent completion rate.
LSU has defeated Auburn in its last three meetings winning handily last year, 31-10.
2♦ LSU
Chris Jordan
LSU at AUBURN
Auburn has one of the most potent and explosive offenses in college football, ranking sixth in the country in scoring with an average of 40 points per game, and it’s because of their sixth ranked rushing offense, which averages 283 yards per game.
And when you compare the two on paper, you might be able to find an argument for the Bayou Bengals; but in reality, Auburn has the much better quarterback, and that's going to be the difference for me.
Auburn signal-caller Cam Newton has played himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation with his spectacular play this season, as he leads college football in scoring, throwing for 13 touchdown passes, and running for another 12.
And make note, as good as his arm is, it’s his legs that make this kid and Auburn one of the most dangerous teams in the nation week after week. He leads the team with 820 yards rushing, a number that incidentally ranks him fourth nationally. His 1,278 yards passing look pretty impressive as well.
I know LSU boasts a pretty tough defense, but I have confidence in what Auburn brings on offense to cover this slim number.
2♦ AUBURN
Scott Delaney
Hawaii at UTAH STATE (+3')
I take you back to Oct. 1, when everyone underestimated the Aggies of Utah State, and they not only competed against BYU, but they dismantled the Cougars to define just how bad the boys from Provo really are this season.
But we also got a look at just how talented Utah State can be with a little motivation.
Well whenever Hawaii comes to the mainland, and does their famed Haku Dance pre-game on enemy territory, there are plenty of teams that get that same kind of motivation.
Utah State, which is a matchup of playbook schemes that can cause any opposing coordinator a headache by the end of the first quarter, is the value play at +3-1/2 points in this Western Athletic Conference clash. And if by chance you're not getting that number, and your book is offering only a field goal, buy the half point up in this one.
The Aggies use several combinations and so many personnel groups that offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin does not decide on his starting lineup until the opening-field location, meaning where exactly the ball is placed on the first series.
Granted, Hawaii can match wits with a schematic defensive unit that features seven formations, but it doesn't take away from the home-field advantage and the fact the Aggies still believe they can become bowl eligible by the end of the season.
Hawaii's defense ranks 81st against the rushing game and 72nd against pass efficiency, while its special teams is horrible.
We're talking about a 5-2 team against a 2-4 team, and yet the oddsmakers have put such a small line on this game. There's a reason - cause they're begging you to play the favorite.
I won't fall for the trap. Take the Aggies, and don't forget to buy that half point.
2♦ UTAH STATE
Michael Cannon
Rice at CENTRAL FLORIDA (-22)
Take Central Florida as the big home chalk over Rice.
UCF has the best defense in Conference USA and is ranked No. 8 in the nation allowing just 265 yards per game.
That’s bad news for a Rice team that was blown out 49-7 at home in last year’s meeting.
That marked the biggest road win in UCF’s history and it wouldn’t surprise me to see something similar here.
Central Florida is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS versus C-USA West teams at home and are playing with extra rest after last Wednesday’s win over Marshall.
Lay the points with Central Florida for the home win and cover.
3♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Derek Mancini,
Georgia (-4) at KENTUCKY
The Bulldogs are red-hot, and its going to take a lot more than this porous Kentucky defense to slow them down. The Wildcats are allowing 38 ppg over their L4 games (all conference match ups), and they're about to face arguablly the hottest offense they've faced to date. Georgia has been ripping opponents a new one, thanks in large part to the return of WR AJ Green. Georgia is averaging 42 ppg over its two game winning streak, and more importantly has not turned the ball over. Playing efficiently as they are, stopping the Bulldogs is easier said than done.
Biggest problem I have with Kentucky is the situational disadvantage they have coming off a emotional come-from-behind win over South Carolina... Matching their energy level in this game is going to be difficult. And for those of you out there expecting Georgia to overlook Kentucky, think again, as the Bulldogs 3-4 record prevents them from overlooking anyone the rest of the way. This Georgia team has their swagger back, and it'll show tonight.
The final piece of the puzzle is the edge on defense for Georgia, allowing 14 ppg on 267 total yards over their L3 games. They excel at stopping the run (100 yards/game L3 games on 3.0 yards/carry), and get enough pressure on the QB to at least limit Mike Hartline. This is a key game for the Bulldogs, who must continue to win after such a poor start. Look for them to do just that with a decisive win tonight in Lexington. Georgia over Kentucky Saturday.
2♦ GEORGIA
Stephen Nover
Air Force (+18') at TCU
Today I offer two free college football selections one of which is Air Force to cover against TCU.
TCU is on another mission this season to earn an invite to the national championship game. The Horned Frogs have done everything right so far going 7-0. They've outscored their last three foes by a combined margin of 103-3 in earning the No. 4 ranking in the country.
But look at who these three past opponents of the Horned Frogs were - Colorado State, Wyoming and BYU. The Rams rank 109th in scoring. Wyoming ranks last in the nation in total offense and second-from-the-bottom in scoring. BYU is 115th in scoring.
Air Force was a Top 25 school before getting upset 27-25 at San Diego State last week when it failed on two two-point conversion tries. The Falcons are averaging 33.1 points per game and have the nation's top rushing offense averaging 346.9 yards on the ground. Their unconventional triple option offense can take TCU out of its comfort zone.
Yes, the Falcons are one-dimensional. But that's actually a plus to be a running team when taking this many points. Air Force is a service academy. Its players are going to battle and not quit like some of TCU's previous foes.
No team gave TCU a tougher game during the regular season than Air Force did last year in losing 20-17. That matchup was played in freezing rain. There's a 50 percent chance of rain for Saturday night's game in Fort Worth with 13 mph winds. These conditions hurt TCU far more because its quarterback, Andy Dalton, is the best passer on the field.
Look for lots of running, which eats up clock and is good for backing a feisty large underdog. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times they've been underdogs.
4♦ AIR FORCE
Rocketman
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois -10
Central Michigan is now 2-5 SU on the season while Northern Illinois comes in with a 5-2 overall record this year. Central Michigan has lost 4 in a row while Northern Illinois has won 4 in a row heading into today's matchup. Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS on Saturday this year. Northern Illinois is 3-0 SU at home this year scoring 33 points per game while allowing only 16 points per game. Northern Illinois is 5-1 SU and ATS at home vs Central Michigan since 1992. Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Northern Illinois today!