Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 24,2009

CAJUN SPORTS

Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Play: Boston College +8½

Boston College makes their way to South Bend for a meeting with the host Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. Notre Dame is coming off a very emotional loss to Southern California on Saturday, they are 1-7 SU/ATS after facing USC versus an opponent off a win and Boston College was destroying North Carolina State 52 to 20 last Saturday.

Notre Dame was able to climb back from a 34 to 14 fourth quarter deficit against the Trojans to almost force overtime but Clausen’s last three passes fell to the ground from inside the USC five yard line as time expired. That type of finish is not uncommon for the Irish this season as their last five games have gone down to the final minute or needed overtime to decide the winner.

Both teams have been more dominant on offense of late with Notre Dames QB Clausen using a 14 to 2 TD/INT ratio to lead the Irish and the Eagles have used a rushing attack with RB Montell Harris that has averaged 8.0 yards per carry with 25 or more touches against Florida State and NC State.

The Eagles have owned the Irish lately winning the last six in a row including three in South Bend and seven of the last eight overall in the series. BC has also gone 4-2 ATS versus Notre Dame over their last six meetings. The Irish passing game plays right into the strength of this Eagles trend which shows they are 40-23 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better. Notre Dame is 8-15 ATS as home chalk and 14-26 ATS when playing at home versus a team with a winning record. One final key tech set is the BC Eagles are a very solid 16-2 ATS as a non-conference single-digit road underdog.

Notre Dame will be playing with shutout revenge for last season’s 17 to 0 loss in Chestnut Hill but that is not enough for us to lay almost double-digits with a team that cannot seem to close anyone out this season even if they happen to get the win. We will gladly take the points here as Boston College and history prevail at least to the point of covering the spread. Take Boston College

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Boston College 31 Notre Dame 32

Dave Busk

Take Utah State (-1.5) over Louisiana Tech

First-year Utah State Aggies coach Gary Andersen only has one win to show so far but does have this program playing competitive football. In four of the five Aggies games he has covered. Louisiana Tech’s biggest hole is the pass defense and they face an Aggie team that averages 10.9 yards per play through the air at home. Louisiana Tech may overlook this team with an Idaho team that has been making headlines with their improved play this year on deck. The oddsmakers opened Tech as a -1 road favorite before Utah State went to the favorite. I expect this line to move up more with the live home team.

Matt Fargo

Texas vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri +12.5

Saturday’s win over Oklahoma was big one for Texas obviously but it was very unimpressive in my opinion. Oklahoma has a solid defense no doubt but Texas could do nothing on offense and mistakes were the issue. Heisman candidate Colt McCoy certainly did not look it and he is no longer in the running after he threw another interception, making it seven this season. Putting that in perspective, through 13 games last season he only had eight picks total so he is definitely off this year. Coming off a big win like the one over the Sooners puts Texas in a tough spot as it can be in store for a letdown this week. Taking a look at last season shows the win over Oklahoma was followed by a 25-point win over Missouri but the difference is that last year, the game was at home against the Tigers. This is the first true road game for the Longhorns since September 12th so it has been five weeks and that game was in Wyoming which is hardly a tough environment. This is a big difference. Missouri is coming off a road loss at Oklahoma St. Saturday night in a game it pretty much should have won. It outgained the Cowboys by 42 total yards but turnovers ended up being the difference as Missouri has four including three interceptions by quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Despite those picks, Gabbert still have better overall numbers than McCoy as he has thrown for more yards, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and a higher ypa average. He is third in the conference in total offense while McCoy enters fourth so while the difference isn’t big, Gabbert is having a solid season. While the offense is fine, the Tigers defense is not horrible as it is ranked 45th in the nation in total defense and 35th in scoring defense which are fourth and fifth respectively in the Big XII. The rushing defense is allowing just 3.6 ypc on the ground and while the Texas rushing offense comes across as strong, it is just above average. Texas is averaging 42 ppg which is tops in the nation but it is 41st in both rushing offense and passing efficiency offense so there really is not a while lot of consistency to the offense. The schedule has not had a lot to do with it as the Longhorns have played a schedule ranked 56th in the nation. That is not far ahead of the Tigers schedule that ranked 70th. On the other side, the Longhorns have the sixth ranked total defense and the first ranked rushing defense in the country but the passing defense is ranked just 50th. That may be considered skewed some based on the fact that teams have had to resort to passing based on trying to play catch up. The problem here is that is falls right into the strength of the Missouri offense so even a deficit means the possibility of a comeback and the backdoor is always left open. The key here for Missouri to have a shot at winning this game outright is turnovers and that is a battle it must win. Texas can get sloppy with the ball, as we all saw against Oklahoma, and the Tigers need to take advantage. Missouri is 16-7 ATS under head coach Gary Pinkel when facing teams that allow 310 or fewer ypg so he has been shown to have the ability to come up with strong offensive gameplans. Also, the Tigers are 13-3 ATS under Pinkel in home games following a road loss. We catch a great number at home in a game that Missouri should be able to keep close throughout. 3* Missouri Tigers

Tony George

Oregon vs. Washington U
Play: Washington +10.5

I was going to release this as an official play this week, but instead want to keep the quality of Free Plays at a high level, and this one surely is one of those selections. Last week we took a road dog of 11 points in Texas Tech at Nebraska as a Free Selection and hammered home an outright dog winner for you. This week I look to the west and this game brings up an interesting scenario, public perception based line with a double digit home underdog who has proven time and time again, they are a better than average team.

Washington has been a double digit dog 3 times this season, covering all 3 games. They opened with a cover against LSU at home (+18), then beat then top ranked USC at home (+22), and damn near beat Notre Dame on the road, a game they should have won straight up on the road as a 12 point pup. The following week they beat ranked Arizona at home as an underdog again (+4). That is a 3-0 ATS for the Huskies in big games as big dogs. Double digit dogs in BCS schools are lines based on public perception by oddsmakers that the favorite is perceived to be much better than their opponent. Oddsmakers adjust during the year to make the lines tighter, but for some reason the Huskies are still a value as an underdog at home, where they beat USC straight up.

This line opened at 7 points and John Q Public has beaten it up to a staggering 10.5 points as of Thursday. Going against the public is also a good bet for those of you not paying attention. Perhaps the sharps jumped on it early thinking value at the fall number of 7 was there for the taking, but now the line over another crucial fall number of 10. Maybe some of those sharps will get a chance to middle it. In any event both teams can score, and while Washington has some issues with run defense, the best QB on the field, is Jake Locker for Washington, no doubt the first QB taken in this year’s NFL draft.

One thing that is big in college ball is revenge, and Washington has lost 5 times in a row to the Ducks. Playing at home with the best player on the field, with a reputation of coming up huge in big games, and against a division opponent, has me all over the Huskies in this role on Saturday. There is no doubt Washington has some issues losing to Idaho (who is better than average) and others they should have beaten, but in a big game like this, I like their chances to hang tough as they have proven it this season against the nation’s elite teams.

Oregon 31 Washington 28

Freddy Wills

Florida Atlantic vs. UL Lafayette
Play: FAU +3

Yes we were on Florida Atlantic as our play of the day last week when they took on North Texas on the road as 1 point favorites. The out come was a perfect offensive attack that yielded 0 turnovers and just 2 penalties something that the Owls were struggling with all year long. Before last weeks game they were 110th in scoring and that was due to their red zone play and penalties. They were finally catching a break against a beatable defense and I had to jump on! This week is no different in my opinion actually Laffayete played North Texas and beat them by 4 points, but that was on their own turf while FAU went on the road and won 44-40. The issue for FAU still the defense, Coach Schnellenberger said, “We will work like hell with the defense so we can find a way to hold our opponents to a lot fewer points.” Defense that is ranked 110th overall has had a tough schedule now getting in the middle of their Sun Belt schedule they should be able to bring that number down as they have faced an average 53rd ranked offense. Where does FAU have the advantage, well I spoke about the defense and they are ranked 117th in rush defense, but they’ll catch a break this week as Laf’s leading rusher Undrea Salis out with fractured leg. Despite 8 new starters FAU’s defense is better than they have shown as they have faced an average 41st ranked rushing attack this weekend they will face the nations 54th ranked rushing offense without their best running back. Running game which is their weakness on offense should be a strength on Saturday. Alfred Morris who does lead the Sun Belt in rushing yards will go up against the 90th ranked rush defense in the nation. FAU is ranked 68th nationally in rush offense, but have faced a defense average of 47th. Their strength has really resided in their passing game (21st) behind QB Rusty Smith who led the team and now has 1252 yds 8TD 3 INT. Chris Bonner became his favorite target last game with 6 catches for 134 yards. Bottom line FAU is better than they are getting credit for and it shows here once again. Earlier in the season they struggled punching the ball in the end zone, but I think they gained a lot of momentum in their last game by being able to score TD’s. After all they were playing some tough defenses before last week they had played an average 43rd total defense and 48th in scoring which led to them struggling to score points in the red zone. Saturday they will play the 79th overall defense and 97th scoring defense. Actually ULLAF on paper is even worse than what North Texas is they have a worse offense 84th to UNT 58th, and worse defense 79th to 68th for UNT. Both playing similar talent. I expect a close game once again, but for FAU to come through in the end with the outright win Take FAU +3

Marc Lawrence

Clemson at Miami FL
Prediction: Clemson

The Tigers travel to Miami to meet the Hurricanes in a key ACC clash at Land Shark Stadium Saturday afternoon. While UM has enjoyed a resurgence this season the fact of the matter is they have struggled in conference play under had coach Randy Shannon, going 3-10 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS versus .500 or less opposition. Behind a strong ground game lead by future NFL RB C. J. Spiller, look for Clemmie to improve to 3-0 ATS in this series. Grab the points with the Tigers.

LARRY NESS

Central Michigan @ Bowling Green
PICK: Central Michigan -7.5

LeFevour has had some four-year career at Mt Pleasant (he's halfway thru senior season). The Chippewas hadn't been to a bowl game since 1994 when he arrived in 2006 but he's led CMU to three straight Motor City Bowl appearances. CMU opened the 2009 season with a 19-6 loss at Arizona, an underrated 2009 squad which just appeared at No. 22 in the first BCS standings. CMU has won six in a row since its September 5 loss at Tucson and enters this game 6-1 (5-1 ATS) overall and 4-0 in the MAC. LeFevour leads a very balanced offense which is averaging 39.2 PPG during its six-game winning streak and 166.9 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC) plus 231.7 YPG through the air for the season. LeFevour is completing 70.0 percent of his passes with 14 TDs and just four INTs plus leads the team in rushing with 394 yards (4.4 YPC) and nine TDs. That gives him a career TD-to-INT ratio of 88-33 with 11,016 passing yards plus 2,629 yards rushing and 41 TDs. Bowling Green is 3-4 SU and ATS and also features an outstanding QB in Tyler Sheehan (65.3 percent 14-4 ratio). However, while the Falcons are averaging a whopping 341.1 YPG through the air, they are dead-last among all FBS schools in rushing yards (67.6 YPG / 2.4 YPC). Defensively, while CMU ranks 19th in PPG allowed (15.9), the Falcons are allowing 29.0 PPG. CMU doesn't have to worry about BG's rushing attack and the Chippewas' pass D has been strong all season, allowing 198.7 YPG (57.7%) and while they only have three INTs, they have allowed just five TD passes. BG's rush D has been really ugly in 2009 (203.7 YPG / 5.8 YPC) and enters this game having allowed 239.5 YPG on the ground (6.7 YPC) over its last four games. CMU is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 MAC games, so why not lay the points?

SEAN MURPHY

South Florida @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Pittsburgh -6.5

South Florida had its bubble burst in a primetime home game against Cincinnati last week, losing 34-17, its first loss of the season after a 5-0 start.

I'm not sure that the Bulls are in a great spot to pick themselves up off the mat this week as they travel to Pittsburgh to face a Top 25 Panthers team, which I still believe is being slightly undervalued.

South Florida cruised through its first five contests, on the strength of a rather easy schedule. Their toughest matchup came on the road at Florida State, but we've come to find out that the Seminoles aren't quite as tough as anticipated, losers of three games in a row themselves.

The key to stopping the Bulls is slowing down their ground game. This is a team that averages an impressive 187 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush. Running on the Panthers is no easy task, as they've limited their opponents to 99.3 rush ypg on 2.8 ypr. At home, opponents are running for just 2.5 ypr.

Pittsburgh hasn't had much explosiveness on offense over the last couple of seasons, but that has changed this year. They're averaging 33.3 points per game on 387 total yards per game of offense. They've shown excellent balance, running for 5.0 ypr and throwing for 8.2 yards per pass play. South Florida's excellent defensive numbers are largely a product of their soft schedule, in my opinion.

Pitt QB Bill Stull is one of the most underrated QBs in all of college football, throwing for 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions so far this season. Behind another strong performance from him, as well as RB Dion Lewis, look for the Panthers to roll to their fourth straight Big East win. Take Pittsburgh.

ALEX SMART

Boston College @ Notre Dame
PICK: Boston College +8

Rivals collide in South Bend on Saturday afternoon when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2, 2-4 ATS) match wits with the Boston College Eagles (5-2, 4-2 ATS).

Boston College comes into this game on an ATS tear, beating the books in three of its L/4 games both SU and ATS. Last week, the Eagles made a mockery of the fact that they were barely favored against NC State, and creamed the Wolfpack 52-20. It appears as though after a long struggle trying to find a signal caller that QB David Shinskie will be the man for BC. Even though he put up a dud against V-Tech two weeks ago, the frosh has had three strong games for Boston College, throwing for seven TD passes against just one pick in his three victories under center. The difference has been the defense, though. The unit ranks 41st in the nation in total 'D' at just 329.3 yards per game, and could have a good day if it can get pressure on ND QB Jimmy Clausen.

The Irish finally broke a four-game coverless streak when they lost to USC 34-27 on Saturday afternoon, but if not for two meaningless TDs in the 4th, they would've dropped a fifth straight college football betting decision. Shinskie has to be smiling about the fact that he gets to face the 117th ranked pass defense in the country. Notre Dame is allowing a stunning 283.0 yards per game through the air this year. Since shutting out Nevada in Week 1, the Fighting Irish have allowed an average of 30.6 points per game, and they've given up at least 30 in four of the five.

BC has dominated this series of late, going 6-0 SU since '01, including LY's 17-0 whooping of the Irish in Chestnut Hill. The dog has covered five of the L/6 and seven of the L/9 in this series. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their L/8 games as a road pup of 3.5-10 pts. Notre Dame has played six straight games that have been decided by a touchdown or less, and this week should be no exception. Take the points.

Joseph D'Amico

Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -21

Texas A&M got blown-up last week 62-14 by Kansas State. The Aggie's are relying on too many freshman and will pay for it dearly as they enter this game losers of 3 straight. Texas Tech destroyed New Mexico, Kansas State, and Nebraska. They have covered 7 in a row over Texas A&M. The Red Raider's "D" have 23 sacks and will spend more time in the A&M backfield than the A&M squad. The home team is 5-1 ATS their last 6 meetings. The Red Raider's are 6-2 ATS their last 8 conference games and 11-3 ATS their last 14 over the Aggie's. The Aggie's are 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games, 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 vs. teams with a winning record, and 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 conference games. Texas Tech steamrolls Texas A&M.

Black Widow

1* on Troy -19

Troy has been dominant against North Texas, and with the Mean Green down again this season with a 1-5 record, the Trojans should have no problem winning by 3 touchdowns at home Saturday. Troy beat NT 45-17 on the road last season and 45-7 at home in 2007. The Trojans are the kings of the Sun Belt Conference and they are well on their way to another title in 2009. The Trojans have reeled off 4 straight wins, including a 13-point home win over UAB and a 24-point home win over Middle Tennessee. Their 4-2 record is pretty impressive considering 4 of their first 6 games have been on the road. Troy is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Troy is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The Trojans are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outgaining their last opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The Mean Green are 2-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take Troy and lay the points.

Mitch Wilson

Arkansas vs. Mississippi
Play: Arkansas +6½

Two SEC teams with big post season aspirations meet as the Mississippi Rebels host the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Ole Miss started this season with big-time aspirations and illusions of a SEC Championship and a possible National Championship. With just half of the season gone, gone are also the hopes of a banner year for the Rebels. Though Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, he simply doesn't have the offensive support he needs to make this team a title contender. Snead's numbers including 9 interceptions thus far this season aren't going to get it done over the long haul in the SEC. Most of the time the Rebels have looked one dimensional. While the expectations were big, the disappointment may be even bigger but the reality of it is the Rebels lost two NFL first round draft choices, something they aren't accustomed to replacing. The defense to this point just hasn't been as fierce as it seemed to be at the end of last season. This is something the Rebels will need to improve on if they want to repeat in a New Year's Day bowl game.

Arkansas may be the best .500 team in college football. The Razorbacks had their chances last week to knock off the number one ranked Florida Gators in the swamp but fell just short as a field goal attempt sailed wide opening the door for the Gator win. There were some suspect calls in that game and the officiating crew who worked the game has been suspended but regardless, Arkansas did not convert on their opportunities, something they absolutely needed to do if they expected to knock off the defending National Champions. Bobby Petrino's Hogs have a lot of talent though on both sides of the ball and seem to play with an air of confidence that they can beat anyone. It is important to note that Arkansas once again has played a brutal schedule and their three losses come to Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.

Mississippi is 5-0 against the spread in their last five home games they were favored in and 6-2 against the spread in games following a straight up win. Arkansas is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 7-2 against the spread the last nine times they have been underdogs. Arkansas has covered five straight against Ole Miss.

I think Ole Miss is a good football team but were highly over rated at the start of the season. Arkansas on the other hand is still somewhat under rated and I think getting nearly a touchdown is a nice value in a game they can very well win outright.

Wunderdog

Central Michigan vs. Bowling Green
Play: Bowling Green +8½

The Chippewas boast the best overall record in the MAC at 6-0, as well as the best record in the Conference at 4-0. They will face a Bowling Green team that has suffered just one loss in the conference, and as such, this is an important game for both teams as it relates to the conference championship. Bowling Green has proven that they can play when they choose to show up, as they had Missouri on the ropes before falling 27-20. And, they already own an impressive 31-14 win over a good Troy team. Outside of the Boise State game, who seems to be steamrolling everyone as usual, no one has beaten this Falcons team by more than a TD. It is no secret that the Falcons are going to air it out. And why not? With QB Tyler Sheehan having already thrown for 2,336 yards and 14 TDs the Falcons can score. They have topped the 30-point mark in each of the last three. Central Michigan has a big win over Michigan State and knows a little about scoring themselves, having put up 48+ three times already. This one should be fun to watch as both teams can put up points in a hurry, but the Chipps are down when they face a team on the road with a losing home record, cashing just one of their last four. The Falcons rise to the occasion as a home dog of 3.5-10 where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and have enough offense to hang inside the number here. Bowling Green gets the call.

#1 Sports

Penn State @ Michigan

Penn State: The Nittany Lions (6-1, 2-1 Big 10) stuffed the Golden Gophers last week 20-0 at Beaver Stadium, holding on to the ball for 41:59 minutes while allowing the opposition just 138 offensive yards and 7 first downs, to post the 40th career shutout for Head Coach Joe Paterno (389-128-3 in 40th season at University Park).

The Big 10’s top total defense ranks only behind Florida nationally in allowing 8.7 points per game (75.4 rush yards, 163.4 pass yards), is yet to allow a first half touchdown, has given up just 5 offensive touchdowns all season – 2 of those in garbage time to Akron and Syracuse – and has the best Red Zone mark in the country at 4 field goals plus 4 touchdowns yielded in 13 trips. 59 tackles for loss including a conference-best 21 sacks is a big reason for their success but that doesn’t mean it has all been easy. State lost their top 3 defensive ends from 2008, slots now filled by sophomores 6’6” 270 Eric Latimore (14 T, 4 ½ TFL, 2 ½ S) and 6’5” 256 Jack Crawford (23 T, 9 TFL, 4 ½ S, FR) who have been carried by the simply extraordinary penetration by tackles 6’5” 296 senior LDT Jared Odrick (26 T, 8 ½ TFL, 5 S) and 6’1” 285 junior RDT Ollie Ogbu (19 T, 6 TFL, S, 2 FF). The country’s best linebacker group is legitimately 5-deep in blue-chippers and they have needed every last man due to injuries that have kept this crew from playing together on any given week. 6’2” 236 senior MLB Josh Hull (69 T, 5 TFL, S, 2 INT) has racked double digit tackles in 5 straight contests, 6’2” 236 senior OLB Sean Lee (34 T, 7 ½ TFL, 2 S) looks like he’ll go this week, and 6’1” 236 OLB Nathan Stupar (27 T, S, INT) has been on a tear since missing most of the early season. Junior OLB’s Navorro Bowman (33 T, 8 TFL, 91-yard FR TD) and 6’1” 231 Bami Gbadyu (29 T) round out a coach’s dream rotation. Behind this seven, their just isn’t much work to do but the Lions do boast plenty of size at the corners with senior AJ Wallace (18 T, 2 INT) and sophomore D’Anton Lynn (13 T) each measuring in as 6’1”.

The Big 10’s top total offense (187.0 rush yards, 245.7 pass yards) has shifted through 4 different offensive linemen combinations but you couldn’t tell from their production either through the air (7.9 yards per attempt, 13 TD) or on the ground (5.2 yards per carry, 13 TD). The current lineup looks like 6’4” 306 senior LT Dennis Loadholt, 6’4” 309 sophomore LG Johnnie Troutman, 6’3” 297 junior C Stefan Wisniewski, 6’4” 310 junior RG Lou Eliades, and 6’4” 306 senior RT Ako Pori with this crew’s professionalism key to the team’s miniscule 32 total penalties. 6’2” 232 senior QB Daryll Clark (128 of 205 for 1654 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT) has matured greatly from 2008 in the passing game, connecting at least 20 times and for at least 200 yards to 4 different targets, while remaining a threat on the ground – especially in the Red Zone where he has scampered in for 4 scores himself. Traditionally known for top tight ends, this season is no exception in Happy Valley with 6’5” 258 senior Andrew Quarless (21 for 224) capable of stretching the field and 6’4” 247 senior Mickey Schuler (8 for 70 and 2 TD) money from the doorstep while wide receivers 6’5” 198 sophomore Derek Moye (27 for 472 and 4 TD), 6’1” 197 sophomore Chaz Powell (21 for 316 and 3 TD), and 6’2” 183 junior Graham Zug (21 for 257 and 2 TD) are all vertical guys with run after the catch ability. As always, Penn State can pound you on the ground. The superb power and speed skills of 6’1’ 213 junior RB Evan Royster (110 for 641 and 4 TD) mark him eventually playing on Sunday’s while 5’10” 197 sophomore RB Stephon Green’s (49 for 259 and 2 TD) quickness has been hampered by a nagging ankle injury.

Michigan: The Wolverines (5-2, 1-2 Big 10) got all Bill Belichick on Delaware State at the Big House last week, teaching them a 63-6 lesson. In exchange for getting abused for 727 yards of total offense including 461 on the ground, the Hornets pocketed about $500,000 for their athletic program – or about $687.76 per step. Not bad, but what does Rich Rodriguez’s (11-18 in 2nd year at Ann Arbor) team get? Between this sham and their 45 point/380 rush yard farce against Eastern Michigan, his team gets to claim the conference’s top scoring (37.3 points per game) and rushing (235.0 yards per) marks!

OK. Seriously. This squad did return 10 offensive starters…from a 3-9 team! What has happened to my Beloved Big Blue? What happened was the increasingly competitive recruiting at Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa plus more incoming talent issues may come if a coaching change is imminent. As noted, these offensive numbers are extremely skewed by patsy pounding (another example: 12 of 21 rushing touchdowns against Delaware State and Eastern Michigan) but let’s find some actual bright spots. Michigan’s offensive line is a little light in the pants for the Big 10 at 295 pounds per man but the left side of 6’7” 284 senior LT Mark Ortmann (19 starts), 6’5” 304 junior LG Stephen Schilling (31 starts), and 6’5” 293 senior C David Moosman (18 starts) are all experienced players. 6 players with 180+ rush yards is fluff but senior backs 6’1” 218 Brandon Minor (57 for 274 and 4 TD) and 6’0” 210 Carlos Brown (44 for 336 and 3 TD) are each big guys, capable of tough running. Sophomore wideouts 5’9” 172 Martavious (19 for 238 and TD, 12.0 per punt return) and 6’2” 196 Darryl Stonum (12 for 189 and TD, 27.2 per kick return with 97-yard TD) have been dangerous in space while 6’4” 249 sophomore TE Kevin Koger (12 for 174 and 2 TD) is a fine all-around player. Quarterbacks Coach Rod Smith has done a exceptional job building his freshman QB’s with 6’1” 188 Tate Forcier (81 for 140 and 1027 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) starting all 7 games as the guy in the pocket and 6’0” 185 Denard Robinson (47 rushes for 273 yards and 5 TD) the guy in the option.

Michigan’s defense is the better side of the ball, despite the numbers, and what amounts to a 3-4 alignment. The Wolverines’ press release states 4-3 but 6’4” 238 freshman Craig Roh (18 T, 4 TFL, S, INT) and backup 6’2” 220 sophomore Brandon Herron (15 T, FR) work off the right edge as basically outside linebackers who put a hand on the ground situationally. Sophomore tackles 6’6” 271 Ryan Van Bergen (26 T, 4 TFL, 2 ½ S) and 6’2” 292 Mike Martin (21 T, 3 TFL, S) are stout enough and have allowed just 3.7 yards per rush this season while 6’2” 263 senior LDE Brandon Graham (30 T, 12 TFL, 5 S, FF, FR) is a top notch player with 24 career sacks. This group is well-coached and schemed, resulting in 5 passed defensed from the line. The first thing that pops out about the Wolverine linebackers is that these cats play the ball! 6’2” 243 MLB Obi Ezeh (55 T, 4 ½ TFL) has forced and recovered a fumble, 6’2” 228 WLB Jonas Mouton (40 T, 2 TFL) has recovered a fumble and snatched a pick, while 6’0” 211 SLB Stevie Brown (43 T, 5 ½ TFL) has forced a fumble and made an interception. In the backfield, 6’0” 185 junior LCB Donovan Warren (29 T, 3 S, 3 INT) gets the big assignments and the high profile but keep an eye peeled for the youngster in the middle. 5’10” 194 freshman SS Jordan Kovacs has racked up 45 tackles, including 5 ½ for loss with a pick of his own.

SELECTION: If this were a cage match between kickers for the Tag-Team Title we would certainly take Michigan’s 6’5” 231 senior P Zoltan Mesko (45.6 per with just 1 touchback) and 6’5” 213 senior K Jason Olesnavage (5 of 6 with long of 44) over Penn State’s 5’9” 168 senior P Jeremy Boone (46.5 per) and 5’9” 173 junior K Collin Wagner (6 of 10 with long of 47) but this is a football game. Take Penn State – 4 ½