Mike Wynn Sports
TCU @ BYU
Mountain West powers collide on Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs pay a visit to Provo to face the BYU Cougars. The Mountain West is a 3 horse this season between BYU, TCU, and Utah and obviously the winner here has a huge leg up on the other. BYU comes in ranked 16th in the nation with an outstanding win over Oklahoma on their resume that had them ranked as high as number 7 before being blown out at home by Florida St. BYU has coasted to double digit wins ever since the loss and this team still feels the Mountain West title is theirs for the taking as they play this game and the up coming Utah at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium. TCU comes into this game ranked 8th in the country and this team is thinking BCS and for good reason. Horned Frogs already 6-0 this season including a win over Clemson in Death Valley and if they can get by BYU here Saturday they’ll be favored the rest of the regular season as Utah has to come calling to Fort Worth this year. A lot on the line here Saturday night for both teams and we’ll take a closer look at both starting with TCU.
Gary Patterson has built himself a bit of a dynasty in Fort Worth. Horned Frogs have 5 double digit win seasons in the last 8 years and their well on their way to another again this year. Last year the defense was an absolute monster allowing only Oklahoma & Boise St to score more than 14 points. This year’s defense may not be quite as stout but their still a formidable stop unit allowing just 13.7 points per contest. Senior DE Jerry Hughes leads a defense that ranks 4th in the country in overall defense allowing 238 total yards per game and their pass defense is only giving up completions at a 45.3% rate. Run defense is just as good allowing 81 yards per game and just 2.6 yards per carry. No doubt it’s the defense that leads the way for TCU but the offense has provided more punch this season for Gary Patterson’s crew. Junior QB Andy Dalton is doing a great job of handling the offense completing 65.5% of his passes and he has a solid 8 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Dalton also has the ability to run which puts even more pressure on opposing defenses. RB’s Turner & Wesley are a nice combo in the backfield with Turner’s tough downhill running style and Wesley’s quickness and open field elusiveness. Receiving corps is solid with a trio of good receivers and they all work behind an offensive line that’s doing a solid job thus far this season. The special teams are even special at TCU having taken back a couple of kicks for touchdowns already this season. TCU has a very solid squad with more than a Mountain West Championship in their sights.
BYU Cougars once ranked as high as 7th this season will look to notch a big win in their belt this Saturday night by knocking off the 8th ranked TCU Horned Frogs. BYU has a very good QB in senior Max Hall who’s completed 69.4% of his passes this season. Hall has 16 touchdown tosses this season but his 10 interceptions are a bit of a concern especially going against a TCU defense that picked him off twice last year and sacked him 7 times. Unlike TCU the Cougars hang their hat on offense where they’re ranked 6th in the country in total offense. As I mentioned QB Hall is the one that makes the offense go but they also have a nice running game when Harvey Unga is healthy. Unga has 9 TD’s on the season and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and gives the Cougar offense nice balance. In the passing game Hall’s favorite and most reliable target is senior TE Dennis Pitta whose 34 grabs and 5 touchdown catches lead the receiving corps. BYU also has speedy wide out McKay Jacabson to stretch the defense and a couple of tough receivers in Chambers & Ashworth who can go across the middle. BYU has plenty of offense to go around but on the defensive side of the ball they need some players to step up Saturday night. DE Jan Jorgenson leads the defensive front and they’ll need a big game out of him as well as the linebacking corps, which could struggle against the athleticism of TCU when they spread the offense. BYU is giving up 22.7 points per game this season and they need an effort like they had against Oklahoma and not like they did against Florida St.
Looking at the trends and angles for this contest on Saturday night you have to start with BYU’s conference record 13 game home winning streak. LaVell Edwards Stadium has been very good to the Cougars but not their backers as BYU is 41-55 ATS since 1992 and 0-3 ATS at home this season. The visitor in this season is 5-2 ATS and BYU is just 1-9 ATS after playing against a Mountain West opponent. BYU is out to avenge a 32-7 thrashing in Fort Worth last season and that loss stopped their nation’s best 16 game winning streak and BCS dreams. BYU is just 1-10 ATS off of 2 consecutive roads wins and 4-21 ATS after any two game road trip. TCU defense and style bode well in tight games as their 12-4 ATS when the line is 3 or less and the Horned Frogs are 18-8 ATS off 2 straight conference wins. BYU is tough at home and playing with revenge but I like this TCU squad to get the win here. TCU defense is almost as nasty as the defense that absolutely dominated last season and I think they’ll keep Max Hall and company in check. TCU offense is good enough to put up 28+ points and I have to believe that with that TCU defense it’ll be enough to win.
DAVE COKIN
TEMPLE / TOLEDO
TAKE: TEMPLE
Temple is on a 4-0 run after starting the season with losses to Villanova and Penn State. The Owls are positioning themselves for a run at getting to the MAC title game, as they're 3-0 in league play. The Owls will have to do without freshman sensation Bernard Pierce, their most dynamic offensive performer. The star freshman RB hurt his shoulder last week and is unlikely to see action this week. That's a big blow to an offense that is workmanlike at best. But the real strength of this team is their staunch defense, which I believe is definitely the best unit in the MAC.
Toledo gets their starting QB back for this game. Aaron Opelt was hurt a couple weeks back in a disastrous effort by the Rockets against Western Michigan. Toledo bounced back for a nice win last week over Northern Illinois, despite missing Opelt and having his backup get hurt during that contest. But the Rockets were also very fortunate to win, as Northern Illinois basically gave the game away with blunders in the kicking game.
The number has shifted fairly dramatically on this contest. Temple opened as the favorite on Sunday night, but the money has come in on Toledo and it's now the Rockets in the small chalk role. I'm sure that is mostly due to the Pierce injury, but it now looks to me like there's some decent value on the Owls side. I've always been a fan of backing defensive dogs and Temple is the vastly superior team in that realm. So it's Temple plus the points for this week's free college play.
Bob Wingerter
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -13.5
The 23rd-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks are clearly favored in Saturday's SEC clash with the Vanderbilt Commodores, who seem to be the worst team in the conference. The fact that South Carolina is only allowing 18.6 ppg and 291.1 total ypg speaks to the strength of the defense. With 15 sacks and 14 takeaways, the Gamecocks have made a fair number of big plays. Eric Norwood is the program's all- time sacks leader, and he has six to his credit this year. The big man is tied for the team lead with 44 tackles and has blocked a pair of kicks, proving to be one of the nation's truly elite defenders.
Jeff Benton
Georgia Tech at VIRGINIA +5'
With just one game on the Friday card, I’m going to look ahead to Saturday’s early college football action and back Virginia plus the points against Georgia Tech.
The Yellow Jackets are a quality, quality team and you can’t help but be impressed with their victories the last two weeks at Florida State (49-44) and at home against fifth-ranked Virginia Tech (28-23). But this is a prime letdown spot for the Yellow Jackets, not only because of what happened the next two weeks, but because they just cannot win in Charlottesville, Va.
Georgia Tech is in an 0-for-8 slump on Virginia’s home field, with the Jackets’ last win at Scott Stadium coming way back in 1990. In fact, the home team has won 12 of the last 14 meetings, and one of the wins by the visitor came last year when the Cavaliers went to Atlanta and beat then-21st-ranked Georgia Tech 24-17 as a 14-point underdog, overcoming a 14-3 deficit in improving to 5-1 SU and ATS the last six years in this rivalry (3-0 SU and ATS at home).
In coming from behind last year, Virginia’s defense did a helluva job against the Yellow Jackets’ dangerous triple-option offense, yielding just 156 rushing yards on 41 carries (3.8 yards per carry). This year, that defense struggled in a big way out of the gate, giving up 26, 30 and 37 points in losses to William & Mary, TCU and Southern Miss. However, the Cavs have turned their season around the last three weeks and the main reason is the defense, which has held North Carolina, Indiana and Maryland to 3, 7 and 9 points. During the win streak, the Cavaliers have yielded just 243.3 total yards and 82.3 rushing yards per game.
Bottom line: Georgia Tech has been far from dominant on the road (33-17 loss at Miami; 42-31 win at Mississippi State and 49-44 win at Florida State) so far this year, and now they’re heading into what has been their Bermuda Triangle. Virginia, which has saved its season over the last three weeks, has won 13 of its last 14 October contests, and in addition to cashing in five of the last six against the Yellow Jackets, the Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 7-0 in October, 4-0 overall and 16-5 as a home underdog. Take the points, but don’t be shocked by an outright Virginia upset.
5♦ VIRGINIA
Carlo Campanella
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina South Carolina
South Carolina (5-2) had a 4-game Winning Streak snapped last Saturday in Alabama, losing to the #2 Ranked Crimson Tide, 20-6. They return home this weekend against a Vanderbilt (2-5) squad that has struggled on the road, owning just a 10-29 SU record away from home behind Head Coach Johnson. South Carolina Head Coach Spurrier is now 14-2 SU against Vanderbilt in his College coaching career, but has lost 2 in a row and is playing this with double revenge. Expect him to return to his winning ways against a Vanderbilt team that has been held to 13 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games. This South Carolina defensive unit has held 5 of their 7 foes to 20 points or less this year and forced a usually error-free Alabama into 4 turnovers last weekend. Must lay the points with home favorite South Carolina, who is 11-1 ATS as favorites following a Conference game.
7* Play On South Carolina
Dennis Macklin
Buffalo U vs. Western Michigan
Play Western Michigan -4.5
Seeing lots of "Buy" signs from a Bronco team that is improving every game on both sides of the ball. WMU home and with more explosive offensive people. Bronc QB Hiller avgg 273 ypg and off 42-63, 410 effort vs hated CMU in last. Brandon West is dependable RB (630, 5.7 ypc) and WR corps is loaded with possession (six with 17-33 catches) types. Buff off two straight wins but QB Maynard has thrown seven picks to just three TDs and top back Nduka (396, 5.7 ypc) now saddled with ankle problems. Western Mich has dominated series (4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS) since Bulls came to the MAC and have more than enough to turn away game Turner Gill bunch minus small number in own crib. Western Michigan 33-20.
Randall The Handle
Colorado +4½ over KANSAS ST.
I’m going back to the well after getting humiliated last week because I still have no faith that Kansas State is anything close to a decent football team. I’ll give the Wildcats credit for embarrassing Texas A&M last week in a result not many people expected but to make them a favorite based on that performance is simply foolish. Texas A&M obviously wasn’t ready to play and that falls on the coaching staff led by NFL failure Mike Sherman. Dan Hawkins is a legitimate coach that had massive success at Boise State but more importantly had the fortitude to pull his son Cody Hawkins and replace him with Tyler Hansen. That quarterback switch sparked a 34-30 upset of #17 Kansas and leaves the Buffalos with a much more talented signal caller. The numbers for Kansas State remain the same: third to last in the Big 12 in points allowed, third to last in passing yards allowed and dead last in passing yards. Any way you slice it, K-State isn’t a better team than Colorado and playing at home is the only saving grace their backers can point to. Colorado is riding a wave of confidence and their new quarterback gives them an extra dimension they didn’t have before. Colorado’s offensive numbers don’t look very good but that’s because an ineffective quarterback and tough opponents in West Virginia and Texas plagued them. I got burned by a shameful performance by Texas A&M last week and maintain Kansas State isn’t a good team. Catching Colorado with points after a big win and potentially capitalizing on a potentially over-confident Kansas State team definitely warrants a play. Play: #381 Colorado +4½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Oklahoma State -10.5 vs Baylor
Arkansas +6.5 vs Mississippi
California -35.5 vs Washington State
Single Plays
Auburn +7.5 vs LSU
Boise -25 vs Hawaii
Central Michigan -8 vs Bowling Green
South Carolina -12.5 vs Vanderbilt
Western Michigan -5 vs Buffalo
Texas Tech -21.5 vs Texas A&M
Michigan +4.5 vs Penn State
Oklahoma -7.5 vs Kansas
Air Force +9.5 vs Utah
Nevada -15.5 vs Idaho
Central Florida -10 vs Rice
SMU +16.5 vs Houston
Fresno -24 vs New Mexico State
ULaMonroe +16.5 vs Kentucky
Florida Atlantic +3 vs ULaLa
Lenny Del Genio
Fresno St. -25 vs New Mexico St.
New Mexico State is not a good team at all and that was readily apparent in last week's 42-7 drubbing at the hands of Louisiana Tech. The Aggies only three SU wins this season have come at the hands of Prairie View (FCS), New Mexico (winless) and Utah State (1-5). They were outgained in all of those games and trailed both FBS opponents by a total of 14 first downs. We look for it to be a long Saturday night in Las Cruces for NMSU against a Fresno State team they've never beaten in 15 chances.
Last year NMSU was held scoreless in the second half and outgained by the Bulldogs 335-183, so we can look past the fact that the last three meetings between these WAC rivals have all been decided by seven points or less. Defense has always been the issue with the Aggies and HC DeWayne Walker has a long way to go in rebuilding this unit. They have already allowed five different opponents to run for 5.0 yards per carry or better and this is terrible news when facing a Fresno offense that features RB Ryan Matthews and averages 280 YPG on 6.1 YPC.
FSU opened up with a tough schedule, making visits to BCS schools Wisconsin and Cincinnati with a home date against #4 Boise State sandwiched in between. They covered both non-league games and have since looked great in back to back blowouts over Hawaii and San Jose State. The Bulldogs have only Utah State on deck, so no lookahead, and New Mexico State is going to get their best shot. Throw in the fact that FSU is 12-3 ATS since 1992 when coming off a conference win where they scored 35 or more points and you have the recipe for a blowout. Play on Fresno State
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona State at Stanford
Following back to back losses on the conference road, Jim Harbaugh's Stanford Cardinal will be thrilled to return to Palo Alto, where they have covered their last eight games. Arizona State is off 2 straight conference wins, which puts them into a 1-10 ATS situation when on the road. They have also failed to cover eight straight road games when going Under in their previous game. Stanford has huge triple revenge (outscored 120-23) on its mind. Lay the points.
Play on: Stanford
John Ryan
TCU vs. BYU
Play: TCU -2.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on TCU over BYU set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that TCU will win this game by 2 or more points. Also a 90% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that BYU is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TCU is a strong 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TCU is also reinforced by a series of situational angles noting they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. BYU is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992. I also do not see BYU containing a very strong TCU running attack. TCU will also get more than 200 yards passing simply using play action schemes. Take TCU.
Tom Stryker
Central Michigan vs. Bowling Green
Play: Central Michigan -9.5
Still on the outside and anxious to break into the Top 25 in either poll, Central Michigan knows, as long as it keeps winning, the rankings will take care of themselves. The Chippewas can make another statement on the road Saturday against an improved Bowing Green team.
When you hear about CMU, your thoughts immediately turn to senior QB Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas high-octane offense. But, this season, the Central defense has been stealing the show. Currently, Central Michigan’s “D” is ranked first in the MAC in scoring defense (allow an avg of 15.9 ppg), and second in rushing defense (allow an avg of 127.1 ypg) and in total defense (allow an avg of 325.9 ypg).
Bowling Green enters this contest off a pair of conference wins over Kent and Ball State. The Falcons are led by quarterback Tyler Sheehan. Quietly, Sheehan (a senior) is tops in the MAC in passing yards per game (avg 333.7 ypg) and he’ll provide the CMU secondary with one of its toughest tests of the season.
Of course, in order for Falcons QB Sheehan to beat the Chippewas, he’ll need to have the football. That might be a problem. You already know about CMU QB LeFevour and his abilities. Combine LeFevour’s talents with a Central ground game that should explode matched up against a BGSU rush defense that has allowed an average of 204 yards rushing per game at the alarming rate of 5.8 yards per carry! With success on the ground, LeFevour will pick this Falcons secondary apart and drive his team up and down the field.
Respect is given to a Bowling Green team that stands 11-4 ATS in its last 15 priced as a home underdog. However, Central is a ridiculous 37-18 SU and 35-15-2 ATS in its last 55 battles including 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in this role matched up against an opponent that enters off a SU and ATS win. Defense wins big games men and the Chippewas have the better stop unit. Take Central Michigan!
Tom Freese
Boise St. at Hawaii
Prediction: Boise St.
Boise St is 7-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and they are 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games. The Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS their last Conference games and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites. Hawaii is 0-4 ATS when playing off a straight up loss and they 4-9 ATS after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS after a game where they rushed for under 100 yards and they are 1-4 ATS as home dogs of 10.5 or greater. PLAY ON BOISE ST -
TEDDY COVERS
Auburn @ LSU
PICK: LSU-7.5
Auburn looked like a juggernaut through the first month of the season, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. Just a few weeks later, it looks as if the Tigers will be unlikely to win another SEC game. Gene Chizik has depth problems that are very atypical of SEC squads.
Auburn started the season with only 75 scholarship players. Most teams have 85. Nine of those 75 are hurt and can’t play. Others are being redshirted, building for the future. Others are bottom tier roster guys – special teams backups and guys that never see the field at all.
The Tigers have lost 44% of the scholarship players that they’ve signed over the last four years. That’s why a whopping 15 walk-on’s have gotten playing time for an SEC team; many on special teams. Last week, their three starting linebackers were their only three linebackers, seeing action on every single defensive play from scrimmage. No wonder this defense has looked completely gassed in the fourth quarter in each of the last three weeks!
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense is regressing as opposing teams get more film on Gus Malzahn’s offense in an SEC setting. QB Chris Todd needed 25 pass attempts to throw for 95 yards last week against a Kentucky defense that has been ravaged with injuries. LSU should have similar success shutting down the passing game here.
LSU is tanned rested and ready to make some noise following their bye week. While Auburn is playing walk-on’s on special teams, LSU is playing future NFL’ers. Chad Jones has already scored on a punt return this year; Trinton Holiday is always a danger to take it to the house on kickoffs. And the hidden advantage of winning the field position war makes LSU’s sluggish offense that much more potent, particularly late in the game when pointspreads are often decided. The Tigers long term 1-13-1 ATS mark as an SEC home favorite under Les Miles has created enough anti-LSU sentiment to give us all kinds of value here. 2* Take LSU.
DAVE MALINSKY
Penn St. @ Michigan
PICK: Penn St. -4.5
Last week in cashing an easy 4* Under ticket vs. Minnesota, we extolled the virtues of a Penn State defense that has been putting up some special numbers. We go back to the well for more of the same, but this time using Joe Paterno’s team as a Side to get the money.
Yes, the Nittany Lion schedule has been weak so far. But having allowed an average of 15.4 points and 291 yards per game from 2006-08, there was ample evidence of what the current SR class could do against much tougher competition. And they are doing what they are supposed to do vs. lesser offenses, shutting them down. They have only allowed two field goals in the first half through seven games; just one TD in the third quarter; and three of the four TD’s allowed in the fourth quarter came in games in which they were leading by at least 21 points. The numbers could have been even more dominating had they been going hard for the full 60 minutes, and that is what we are going to see here, especially with MLB Sean Lee back to full health. There may not be a better LB tandem in the nation than Lee and Navorro Bowman, and it is that line of defense that is so important against the spread options schemes of Michigan.
The Wolverines have been able to make some dynamic things happen with young Tate Forcier at QB, but that is creating the wrong impression in the marketplace, and we believe the cart is far ahead of the horse in terms of the rebuilding process under Rich Rodriguez. Consider that they were +24 at Happy Valley LY, and lost 46-17 to Penn State in a game in which the Lions rolled off 39 consecutive points in one stretch, holding a commanding edge of 191 yards in total offense. Has this much of the gap been made up? Hardly. Michigan was just a bounce away from losing to both Notre Dame and Indiana, and one big play away from the Michigan State loss being a 14-point drubbing, instead of the close overtime final score that was posted. And in the only real challenge against a first-rate defense the Wolverines turned the ball over five times in losing at Iowa. Now a savvy defense that has seen this playbook before will be attacking Forcier to make his reads difficult, and we can expect similar problems again.
What we will also see is the Penn State offense begin to show more layers. This group has largely been held under wraps, with one of the keys to the attack, the mobility of QB Darryl Clark, a non-factor until now. Because there is precious little experience behind him, Paterno has been hesitant to have Clark carry the ball himself when games were under control. As such, a play has only finished with him being tackled with the ball 27 times, after he ran for 282 yards and 10 TD’s LY. We will see that begin to change as the games become more important. This is just such a game in their minds, and a Michigan defense that does not show a strength anywhere (64th in Total Defense, 58th against the Run, 80th in Passing yards allowed, and 86th in Sacks) can be kept on their heels throughout. That makes this a short pointspread for a team that has gone 4-1 ATS as a Big 10 road favorite the past two seasons, and has the polish to be in command of the proceedings.