SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(11) Georgia Tech (6-1, 4-2 ATS) at Virginia (3-3, 4-1 ATS)
The top two teams in the ACC’s Coastal Division square off at Scott Stadium, where Georgia Tech shoots for its fifth straight victory while the Cavaliers look to extend their three-game winning streak.
The Yellow Jackets outlasted fourth-ranked Virginia Tech last Saturday 28-23 as a 3½-point home underdog, improving to 4-0 SU and ATS in four games since losing 33-17 at Miami on Sept. 17. Georgia Tech (4-1, 3-2 ATS in the ACC) has won its last two games by five points each, and the Jackets rank second the nation in rushing, averaging 281.6 yards per game on the ground (5.2 per carry) with 22 rushing touchdowns. Last week against the Hokies, Georgia Tech had a 309-175 edge on the ground.
Virginia (2-0 SU and ATS in the ACC) stunned Georgia Tech 24-17 as a 14-point road underdog in the final weekend of October last year, then went on to lose seven straight games (2-4 ATS in lined contests), including the first three of this season. However, the Cavaliers have since ripped off three consecutive SU and ATS victories over North Carolina (16-3 as a 12-point road underdog), Indiana (47-7 as a seven-point home chalk) and Maryland (20-9 as a 3½-point road favorite). Last week against Maryland, Virginia had just nine first downs, 201 total yards and 63 rushing yards, but the defense forced four turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, as the Cavs overcame a 9-3 second-half deficit.
Not only did the Cavaliers score the road upset over then-No. 21 Georgia Tech last year, but they’ve owned this rivalry recently, winning two straight overall and five of the last six, all SU and ATS. Virginia is also 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings at Scott Stadium, and the home team is 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11, with the winner covering the spread in all 11 contests. Finally, the favorite has cashed in five of the last seven series clashes.
The winner is 15-2-1 ATS in Georgia Tech’s last 18 lined games and 14-2 ATS in Virginia’s last 16.
In addition to cashing in four straight games overall, the Yellow Jackets are on pointspread surges of 12-5 overall under second-year coach Paul Johnson, 8-2 on the road, 6-1-1 in October, 7-3 as a favorite and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Virginia sports nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 7-3 as an underdog, 16-5 as a home pup, 10-2 as a home ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points and 7-0 in October. In fact, the Cavaliers have won 12 of their last 13 SU in October.
The under is on runs of 9-4 for Georgia Tech in ACC action, 19-6-2 for Georgia Tech in October, 34-16-3 for Virginia in conference play and 4-1 for Virginia in October. The under is also 4-1 in the last five Yellow Jackets-Cavaliers battles, but four of the last five in Charlottesville have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA and UNDER
Clemson (3-3, 4-2 ATS) at (8) Miami, Fla. (5-1, 4-1 ATS)
Miami goes after its fourth straight win and cover when it hosts the Tigers, who arrive at LandShark Stadium for a key ACC battle fresh off their best performance of the season.
Clemson put the skids on a two-game SU and ATS slide last Saturday as it came off a bye week and destroyed Wake Forest 38-3 as a 7½-point home favorite. The Tigers (2-2, 3-1 ATS in the ACC) have one of the top defenses in the nation, giving up just 15.9 points, 270.2 total yards and 147.8 passing yards per contest, figures that rank 17th, 11th and 7th among Division I-A squads.
The Hurricanes routed Central Florida 27-7 as a 12-point home favorite last week, improving to 3-0 SU and ATS since an embarrassing 31-7 loss at Virginia Tech on Sept. 26. Miami (2-1 SU and ATS in the ACC) has averaged 33.4 points in its five wins while allowing just 15 ppg in the last four victories. However, QB Jacory Harris (65 percent completions, 253 ypg, 11 TDs, 7 INTs) has come back to earth a bit after a hot start.
These teams have met just twice since Miami joined the ACC – in 2004 and 2005 – and the visitor won both games in overtime. Clemson cashed as an underdog in each contest, winning 24-17 as a 16½-point road ‘dog and falling 36-30 as a seven-point home pup in triple-OT.
The SU winner has cashed in 14 of the Tigers’ last 15 outings and 13 of Miami’s last 16.
Clemson has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 after a SU win, but otherwise Dabo Swinney’s squad is on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-1 in ACC play, 17-5 as an underdog, 7-1 as a road ‘dog and 8-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
Miami is 5-1 ATS in lined action dating to last year’s bowl game against Cal and 5-0 ATS in its last five October contests, but the ‘Canes are also in pointspread slumps of 8-19-1 in conference action, 7-20-1 as a favorite, 10-31-1 as a home chalk and 1-9 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. They’re 2-0 ATS at home this year after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine in South Beach.
The over is 5-2 in the Tigers’ last seven as an underdog (4-0 last four as a road pup), but aside from that, they carry “under” trends of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in conference and 7-3 after a SU win. Meanwhile, Miami is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 35-15-1 at home, 37-17 as a chalk, 20-6 as a home favorite and 6-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and UNDER
South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) at (20) Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS)
South Florida looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it travels north to Heinz Field for a Big East battle against the Panthers, who are riding a three-game winning streak.
The Bulls jumped out to a 7-3 lead against No. 8 Cincinnati last Thursday, but got steamrolled from there and lost 34-17 as a two-point home underdog to end a six-game winning streak that dated to last year’s bowl victory over Memphis. South Florida (1-1 SU and ATS in the Big East) surrendered a season-high in points, total yards (401) and rushing yards (189) after yielding averages of 9.4 points and 263 total yards (104.8 rushing ypg) during its 5-0 start.
Pitt (3-0 SU and ATS in the Big East) went to Rutgers last Friday and dumped the Scarlet Knights 24-17, cashing as a six-point road favorite as they finished with a 376-286 edge in total offense, including 223-38 on the ground. Since suffering their first loss of the season – 38-31 at North Carolina State as a one-point favorite – the Panthers are 3-0 (2-1 ATS), averaging 27.7 points and 423 total yards per game (202 rushing ypg) while giving up 16 points and 298 yards per outing (81.7 rushing ypg).
These teams have split six meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in all six games. Last year, Pitt went to South Florida and beat the then-10th-ranked Bulls 26-21 as a 13½-point road underdog, avenging a 48-37 home loss to the Bulls in 2007, when USF got three second-half touchdowns off of turnovers to win easily as a nine-point road favorite.
The SU winner is 11-2 ATS in South Florida’s last 13 lined games and 14-1 ATS in Pitt’s last 15.
QB Bill Stull is having an outstanding senior season at Pitt, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,409 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. South Florida freshman QB B.J. Daniels is completing just 53.4 percent of his passes for 810 yards, seven TDs and four INTs in four games since replacing senior Matt Grothe (season-ending knee injury). However, the versatile Daniels has 365 yards and four TDs on the ground, averaging 5.7 yards per rush.
Despite getting upended last week by Cincinnati, the Bulls are still on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 as an underdog, 5-0 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 4-0 as a road pup, but they’re 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams and 2-6 ATS in their past eight October contests. Pitt has cashed in four of its last five Big East games, five of seven as a favorite and 13 of 17 in October, but Dave Wannstedt’s squad is also in ATS funks of 5-12 at home and 2-8 as a home chalk.
For South Florida, the under is on streaks of 5-1 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog, 7-1 as a road pup and 6-1 against winning teams. Pitt also carries a slew of “under” trends, including 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 at home, 5-0 in Big East action and 6-2 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston College (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at Notre Dame (4-2, 2-4 ATS)
Notre Dame will try to bounce back from last week’s tough loss to USC while at the same time end a six-game losing streak to Boston College when it welcomes the Eagles to South Bend, Ind.
Boston College rebounded from an ugly 48-14 loss at Virginia Tech with a 52-20 rout of North Carolina State, easily covering as a two-point home favorite. After getting out-yarded by margins of 199, 98, 12 and 278 in four straight games, the Eagles finally dominated on the stat sheet against N.C. State, ending with 480 total yards (293 rushing) and giving up 394 (79 rushing). RB Montel Harris set school records with 264 rushing yards and five TDs, and B.C. also won the turnover battle, 3-0.
Notre Dame played its fifth consecutive last-minute thriller last Saturday against USC, but this time the Irish came up short 34-27, falling for the eighth straight time to the Trojans despite covering as a 10-point home underdog. Notre Dame trailed 34-14 early in the fourth quarter before rallying for a pair of touchdowns, and the Irish got inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds but couldn’t punch in the tying score. Charlie Weiss’ squad got outgained 501-367 in seeing its four-game winning streak end.
Since a season-opening 35-0 rout of Nevada, Notre Dame has played five games decided by 4, 3, 3, 7 (in overtime) and 7 points.
Boston College blanked the Irish 17-0 as a 3½-point home favorite last year – the first shutout in the history of the series – improving to 6-0 against the Irish (3-3 ATS) since 2001, including three straight wins in South Bend. Notre Dame had a 292-246 yardage edge in last year’s defeat, but QB Jimmy Clausen was picked off four times, with one returned for a score. Prior to last season, the underdog had cashed in five consecutive series meetings and seven of the previous eight.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 14 consecutive Boston College games, but the loser has cashed in four straight Notre Dame contests after the SU winner had gone 13-1 ATS in the Irish’s previous 14.
The Eagles have won an NCAA best 23 consecutive non-conference games SU, but they’ve lost four in a row on the road both SU and ATS and failed to cover in five of seven as a road ‘dog and nine of 11 after an ATS win. On the bright side, Boston College is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference outings and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. Notre Dame snapped a four-game ATS slide (all as a favorite) with last week’s spread-cover against USC and is now 20-7 ATS in its last 27 in October. However, the underdog has covered in each of the Irish’s last five games.
The over is on runs of 4-0 for B.C. overall, 6-0 for B.C. in October, 7-3 for B.C. after a SU win, 4-1 for B.C. against winning teams, 4-1 for the Irish overall, 7-1-1 for the Irish in South Bend and 5-1-1 for the Irish as a home favorite. However, the under is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last seven non-conference games and 7-1 in Notre Dame’s last eight against the ACC, and five of the last seven in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tennessee (3-3 SU and ATS) at (1) Alabama (7-0, 5-2 ATS)
The Crimson Tide take the field as the top-ranked team in the nation for the first time this season as they host SEC rival Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.
The Volunteers (1-2, 2-1 ATS in the SEC) took last week off after posting their most impressive win of the season, a 45-19 beat-down of Georgia as a one-point home underdog. Tennessee’s dormant offense awoke in a big way, producing 472 yards, while the defense limited the Bulldogs to 241. Much-maligned Vols QB Jonathan Crompton erupted with a 20-for-27, 310-yard, four-TD performance, and the defense contributed an interception return for a touchdown.
Alabama leapfrogged SEC foe Florida in the media poll after outlasting South Carolina 20-6 a week ago, though the Crimson Tide came up short as an 18-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run. Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS in the SEC) out-yarded the Gamecocks 356-278, but much of that damage was done on the ground (264 rushing yards, 6.9 yards per carry), as Tide QB Greg McElroy (10-for-20, 92 yards, no TDs, two INTs) had his worst game of the season. Nick Saban’s squad has won 19 consecutive regular-season games, the last eight by double digits.
Alabama ranks fourth in the nation in scoring defense (11.6 ppg), second in total defense (228.7 ypg), 13th in passing defense (163.4 ypg) and third in rushing defense (65.4 ypg). The Tide have surrendered just seven touchdowns in seven games and have held all but one of their last five opponents to seven points or less. At the same time, the offense has produced 20 points or more in every game this season.
Alabama went to Knoxville last year and crushed Tennessee 29-9 as a five-point road favorite, after rolling 41-17 as a one-point home ‘dog in 2007. The Crimson Tide are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings (3-2 SU). Also, prior to last year, the host had won four in a row in this rivalry, but the visitor is now 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with Tennessee going 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Tuscaloosa (4-2 SU in the last six).
Even though the Crimson Tide failed to cover in last week’s victory over South Carolina, the SU winner is still 12-2 ATS in Alabama’s last 14 games. The winner has also cashed in 10 of Tennessee’s last 12.
Tennessee is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games after a spread-cover and 0-4 ATS in its last four games after a victory of more than 20 points. However, Lane Kiffin’s team is on positive pointspread rolls of 4-1 in SEC play, 4-1 on the road, 5-1-1 as a road pup and 6-0 when catching more than 10 points (all on the road).
Alabama is now 10-21-1 ATS in its last 32 games as a home chalk, but otherwise the Tide are on ATS rolls of 10-2 in the regular season, 7-2 in conference action and 6-2 as a double-digit favorite.
For Tennessee, the under is on runs of 19-6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 18-7-1 against SEC opponents, 6-1 in October, 8-1 as a ‘dog, 6-0 as a road pup and 13-3-1 against winning teams. Alabama’s “under” streaks include 6-1 in SEC play, 5-1 in October, 10-4 after a SU win and 31-11-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points. Finally, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(13) Penn State (6-1, 2-4 ATS) at Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS)
Michigan will try to snap a two-game Big Ten losing skid while continuing its dominance of Penn State when the Nittany Lions come calling to the Big House in Ann Arbor.
Since a stunning 21-10 loss to Iowa as a 9½-point home favorite on Sept. 26, Penn State has bounced back with three straight double-digit wins over Illinois (35-17 as a 7½-point road chalk), Eastern Illinois (52-3 in a non-lined home game) and Minnesota (20-0 as a 17-point home favorite). In the three victories, the Nittany Lions (2-1 SU and ATS in the Big Ten) have rolled up 510 total ypg (266.7 rushing ypg, 6.7 rushing yards per carry) and surrendered just 245.7 total ypg (75.3 rushing ypg, 2.7 ypc).
The Wolverines started the season 4-0 (3-1 ATS), then suffered consecutive close road losses to Michigan State (26-20 in overtime as a four-point ‘dog) and Iowa (30-28 as a 9½-point pup). Michigan (1-2 SU and ATS in the Big Ten) did regain some confidence last week with a 63-6 rout of Division I-AA Delaware State in a non-lined home game, piling up 727 total yards (461 rushing) while permitting 216 (65 rushing).
Penn State finally got over on Michigan last year, overcoming a 17-7 second-quarter deficit by scoring 39 unanswered points en route to a 46-17 rout as a 24½-point home favorite. That ended the Lions’ nine-game losing skid (2-7 ATS) to the Wolverines, the longest such losing streak for coach Joe Paterno against any one opponent. In its last five trips to Ann Arbor, Penn State has averaged just 18 ppg in going 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS.
The Nittany Lions are on ATS runs of 5-0-1 in October, 5-1-1 on artificial turf, 5-2-1 on the road and 5-1-1 as a road chalk. Michigan is on pointspread upticks of 3-1 at home and 9-3 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Wolverines have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 at home, five of their last six in October and six of their last eight after a SU victory.
The under is 5-1 in Penn State’s last six lined games overall (all as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in its last five road games. The Wolverines are on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 3-0 at home, 8-2 as an underdog, 8-3 in Big Ten play and 7-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(25) Oklahoma (3-3, 1-3-1 ATS) at (24) Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
With its national championship and Big 12 title hopes now history, the Sooners begin the process of playing out the string when they visit Big 12 foe Kansas, which is coming off its first defeat of the season.
Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1-1 ATS in the Big 12) lost star quarterback Sam Bradford to another shoulder injury in the first quarter last week against third-ranked Texas yet still managed to hang around the entire game before eventually losing 16-13 and pushing as a three-point underdog. Landry Jones came off the bench to replace Bradford and went 24-for-43 for 250 yards with a touchdown, but he threw two costly interceptions, including one in the waning moments that killed the Sooners’ final drive. Oklahoma had minus-16 yards rushing while the defense surrendered 142 yards on the ground.
Kansas (1-1, 0-2 ATS) took a seven-game winning streak into last week’s Big 12 battle at Colorado but fell behind 27-10 in the third quarter before mounting a comeback that came up just short, losing 34-30 as a 9½-point road favorite. The Jayhawks outgained Colorado 423-322, but like the Sooners against Texas, Kansas was dominated on the ground, getting out-rushed 147 to minus-8.
The Sooners are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in five meetings with Kansas this decade, including last year’s 45-31 home victory with the teams combining for 1,165 yards. The Jayhawks did get a meaningless touchdown with 58 seconds left to cover as a 19-point road underdog, ending an 0-3 ATS drought in this rivalry.
The SU winner is 16-2-1 ATS in the Sooners’ last 19 games and 9-2 ATS in the Jayhawks’ last 11.
Jones, who will take over for Bradford today, has started four games and played off the bench in two others, completing 59 percent of his throws for 1,111 yards with 11 TDs and five INTs. By comparison, Kansas senior Todd Reesing has passed for 1,979 yards (67.1 percent) with a 15-4 TD-to-INT ratio.
Oklahoma is still on ATS runs of 6-1-1 on the road, 6-1-1 in Big 12 action, 6-1 on artificial turf and 7-3 as a road favorite, but the Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five lined contests, 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six in October. The Jayhawks have failed to cover in three straight overall and four of five in conference play, but they’re still on pointspread rolls of 24-10 overall, 13-6 at home, 5-2 as a home ‘dog and 14-5 on turf.
The Sooners have stayed under the total in seven straight games, but the over is 9-2 in their last 11 conference games and 5-2 in their last seven on the road. Kansas carries “over” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 in October, 7-1 in conference action and 5-1 as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
(3) Texas (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) at Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
Fresh off a narrow Red River Rivalry victory over Oklahoma, Texas now takes a 10-game winning streak to Columbia, Mo., for a Big 12 clash with the slumping Tigers at Faurot Field.
The Longhorns outlasted Oklahoma 16-13 as a three-point favorite in Dallas, surviving despite another subpar game from QB Colt McCoy (21-for-39, 127 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). However, the defense continued to shine, forcing five turnovers and limiting Oklahoma to minus-16 rushing yards on 22 carries. Texas leads the nation in rushing defense at 37.5 ypg (1.3 per carry) and has yielded just one rushing touchdown. Mack Brown’s stop unit is also 15th in scoring defense (14.7 ppg) and sixth in total defense (247.7 ypg).
Not only have the Longhorns won 10 in a row, but they’re 24-2 SU in their last 26 games, including 7-2 SU in true road games.
Missouri ended last year with an Alamo Bowl victory over Northwestern, then started of 2009 with four consecutive non-conference wins. However, the Tigers have come back to earth the last two weeks in Big 12 play, losing 27-12 to Nebraska as a 3½-point home underdog on Oct. 8 and 33-17 at Oklahoma State as a seven-point road pup last week. Mizzou had a 393-351 edge in total offense, but lost the turnover battle 4-0, with QB Blaine Gabbert throwing three interceptions. Gabbert had 11 TD passes and no interceptions in non-conference play, but he’s got one TD and five picks the last two weeks.
Texas is 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings with Missouri, winning all give games this decade (4-1 ATS) by an average of 23.4 ppg. Last year, the Longhorns raced out to a 35-0 lead and rolled 56-31 as a 3½-point home favorite.
The Longhorns are in pointspread droughts of 3-9 overall (1-5-1 last seven, all as a favorite), 1-4 on the highway, 1-4 as a double-digit chalk and 0-3-1 against winning teams. Missouri also carries several negative ATS trends, including 0-5 at home, 0-4 in Big 12 play, 1-5 as an underdog, 0-6 versus winning opponents and 1-4 in October.
The over is 16-6-1 in Texas’ last 23 road games, but otherwise the ‘Horns are on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in conference, 5-0 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 after a SU win. Likewise, the Tigers are on “under” rolls of 6-0 overall in lined action, 7-1 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the past three meetings in this series have flown over the total, with combined totals of 71 and 87 the last two years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
(10) TCU (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at (16) BYU (6-1, 4-3 ATS)
The Mountain West’s game of the year comes from Cougar Stadium in Provo, Utah, where TCU looks to keep in its BCS Bowl hopes alive with a victory over BYU, which is seeking its 13th consecutive conference home win.
The Horned Frogs (2-0, 1-1 ATS in the Mountain West) hammered Colorado State 44-6 as a 22-point home favorite last Saturday, erasing a 6-0 first-half deficit by scoring 44 unanswered points in running their winning streak to nine in a row while ending a two-game ATS hiccup. QB Andy Dalton passed for 211 yards and two TDs as TCU had a 499-182 yardage advantage (275-70 rushing).
TCU has surrendered 17 points or less in 13 consecutive Division I-A games and 17 of 18 since the start of the 2008 season. Take away a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and the Frogs have given up just 23 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008, going 17-2 SU (11-6 ATS in lined action). Moreover, TCU has yielded 10 points or less nine times during this 17-game stretch.
BYU (3-0, 2-1 ATS in the Mountain West) survived a scare at lowly San Diego State last week, rolling up 512 total yards en route to a 38-28 victory, but failing to cover as a 17-point road favorite. The Cougars have won four in a row, but have alternated spread-covers in their last six outings. Against SDSU, quarterback Max Hall went 27-for-39 for 346 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s got a 5-0 TD-to-INT ratio in his last two games after tossing a combined 10 picks in BYU’s first five contests.
Since mustering just two touchdowns in a season-opening 14-13 upset of Oklahoma, BYU has scored 28 points or more in six straight games (42.7 ppg), tallying 35 or more each time out during its four-game win streak.
The Cougars will be looking for payback tonight, as they were the team that was 6-0 and ranked in the Top 15 last year when they went to TCU and got blitzed 32-7 as a 1½-point road underdog, their worst loss since 2005. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 26-0 lead and finished with advantages of 29-19 in first downs, 410-297 in total yards and 240-23 in rushing yards. The TCU defense also forced four turnovers, with Hall tossing two picks while going just 22-for-42 for 274 yards and no TDs for BYU, which had entered that contest with a 16-game winning streak.
These teams have split four meetings since TCU joined the Mountain West in 2005, with the Frogs going 3-1 ATS and the underdog also going 3-1 ATS. Two of those meetings came in Provo, with BYU winning 27-22 as a seven-point favorite in 2007 after the Frogs won 51-50 in overtime as a three-point pup in 2005.
TCU’s sensational defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed (13.7 ppg, 10th), total yards allowed (238 ypg, 4th), rushing yards allowed (81.2, 8th), rushing TDs allowed (3, tied for 3rd), passing yards (156.8, 9th) and opponents’ completion percentage (45.3, 2nd). On the other hand, BYU rates sixth nationally in scoring offense (38.6 ppg), seventh in total offense (469.4 ypg), 11th in passing offense (306 ypg) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (17). Finally, the Cougars 70.1 completion percentage is tops in the nation.
Both offenses are piloted by outstanding quarterbacks. Dalton is completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 203.8 ypg with eight TDs and three INTs, and the versatile junior also has 228 rushing yards but no rushing TDs after finding the end zone 13 times the last two years on the ground. Hall, a senior, connects at a 69.4 percent rate for 2,069 yards (295.5 per game) with 16 TDs and 10 INTs.
The Horned Frogs are on pointspread surges of 15-6 in conference play, 27-13 as a favorite and 6-1 when laying three points or less. BYU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven versus opponents with a winning record, but is otherwise in ATS ruts of 1-5 at home, 3-7 against Mountain West opponents, 1-7 in October, 3-9 after a SU win and 1-4 as a home underdog of a field goal or less.
Not surprisingly, defensive-oriented TCU is on “under” runs of 3-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1-2 in October and 16-5-2 versus winning teams, while the Cougars sport “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 in conference play and 1-6 against winning teams. However, BYU has stayed low in four straight as a home ‘dog. Finally, last year’s meeting at TCU stayed under the total, ending a three-year “over” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU
(7) Iowa (7-0, 4-2 ATS) at Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS)
The Hawkeyes try to keep their perfect season intact when they make the trek to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten showdown with Michigan State.
After surviving a 17-16 scare from Northern Iowa in the opener this season, Iowa has scored 20 points or more in each of the last six (4-2 ATS), including last week when they went to Madison, Wisc., and rallied past the Badgers 20-10 as a two-point road ‘dog. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, including an upset of then-fifth-ranked Penn State 21-10 as a 9½-point underdog on Sept. 26.
Iowa has won 11 straight overall (7-3 ATS), and a victory today would give the school its longest winning streak to open a season in the 120-year history of the institution. The Hawkeyes are plus-11 in turnovers this season and their 22 takeaways rank second in the nation, and they’ve yielded 18 points or less in six of their seven games.
Michigan State has rattled off three straight Big Ten wins (2-1 ATS) after losing three of its first four to open the season. The key to the Spartans’ recent success has been the pass rush, racking up 12 sacks in the last three games. They scored a 24-14 home win over Northwestern a week ago, but came up short as a 14-point favorite.
Iowa is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings, including 3-0 ATS in the last three, though Michigan State prevailed last year 16-13 as a six-point home favorite. Despite the nail-biter in 2008, the host has won nine straight in this rivalry by an average of 15 points per game, and the home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five overall. Additionally, the underdog has a 15-4-1 ATS edge in this rivalry.
The Hawkeyes arrive in East Lansing on ATS runs of 5-0 on the road, 7-3 in Big Ten action, 5-2 in October, 8-1 against winning teams and 7-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after a non-cover, but otherwise are on pointspread slides of 1-5 against winning teams, 2-5 at home and 5-12-1 when hosting Big Ten opponents in East Lansing.
Iowa is on several “under” streaks, including 20-9-1 overall, 21-5-1 on the highway, 10-2-1 as an underdog, 11-5 against winning teams, 19-7-1 as a road ‘dog and 14-5-2 after a straight-up win. Michigan State has stayed below the posted number in eight of its last 10 at home, five of six as a favorite and five of seven Big Ten battles. However, the “over” has been the play in four of the last six clashes in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
Auburn (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at (9) LSU (5-1, 2-4 ATS)
LSU will try to get back on the winning track after suffering its first loss of the season two weeks ago when it hosts Auburn at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., in a key SEC West matchup.
LSU was off last week after losing 13-3 to top-ranked on Oct. 10, coming up just short of covering as a 9½-point underdog. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for LSU (3-3 ATS) as the offense managed just 162 total yards against the Gators’ defense, the lowest yardage output for LSU since 2000. QB Jordan Jefferson was just 11-for-17 for 96 yards with an interception against Florida, the second straight game the sophomore has failed to toss a scoring strike, and he’s been sacked 11 times in the last two games.
LSU’s offense is putting up just 23 ppg, far less than its 38.6 ppg in 2007 when it won the national championship. The ground game managed just 66 yards against Florida, and that came on the heels of a 30-yard rushing performance at Mississippi State on Sept. 26.
Auburn’s season began on a positive note with five straight wins (4-1 ATS) but it has come back to earth the last two weeks, losing 44-23 at Arkansas as a 1½-point road favorite on Oct. 10 and a 21-14 to Kentucky as a 13½-point home favorite last weekend. QB Chris Todd threw 11 TD strikes and averaged 254 passing yards per game in the first four games, but he’s thrown just one TD pass and averaged 143.7 ypg in the last three contests.
Auburn has lost its last four trips to Baton Rouge, as the home team is on an 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 ATS tear in this rivalry dating back to 2000. Auburn holds a 6-3-1 ATS edge in the last 10 meetings (3-1 ATS last four), and the last five battles have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Auburn is on negative ATS streaks of 5-12 overall, 3-9 in SEC games, 1-6 on the road, 1-6 in October and 0-6 following a straight-up loss. LSU is now 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games overall and has failed to cover in 12 consecutive SEC contests at Tiger Stadium. LSU is on additional ATS slides of 8-20-1 overall, 3-12 in regular-season games, 8-22-1 in SEC play, 2-6 in October, 3-7 against winning teams and 0-5 after a non-cover.
The “over” has been the play for Auburn in five of the last seven overall, but the “under” is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 15-6 in SEC matchups, 20-7 as an underdog and 4-1 as a road ‘dog. LSU has topped the total in 13 of 19 SEC games and four of five after a bye week, but it is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 4-0 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Oregon State (4-2, 2-3 ATS) at (4) USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS)
Coming off a bye week, Oregon State will try to make it three wins in the last four years against Pac-10 rival USC when the Beavers visit the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
The Beavers have won two of the last three against USC, however both have come in Corvallis and surround a 24-3 home win for the Trojans in 2007, with USC cashing as a 15½-point favorite. The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry (8-2 ATS, including six straight covers). Last year, the Beavers stunned the No. 1-ranked Trojans 27-21 on a Thursday night, cashing as a 24-point home ‘dog. USC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Los Angeles.
Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who rushed for 186 yards and two scores on 37 carries in last year’s upset of USC, rattled off career-highs of 189 yards and four TDs in the Beavers’ 38-28 win over Stanford on Oct. 10. Rodgers is second in the Pac-10 with 116.2 rushing yards per game and second in the nation with 13 rushing scores.
Rodgers could find the going tough against the Trojans, who rank fifth in the nation in scoring defense (11.7 ppg), fourth in rushing defense (67.7 ypg) and third in yards-per-carry (2.1).
Freshman QB Matt Barkley had a career-high 380 passing yards with two TDs and one INT last Saturday in South Bend, Ind., to lead USC to a thrilling 34-27 victory. However, the Trojans failed to cover as a 10-point road favorite as they blew a 34-14 fourth-quarter lead. Notre Dame had a chance to force overtime, driving to the 4-yard-line in the final seconds, but three straight passes fell incomplete.
Oregon State is on several positive ATS streaks, including 11-4 overall, 9-4 on the road, 8-2 in Pac-10 play, 34-16-1 in October, 45-18 after an ATS win and 11-4 as an underdog. USC is on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 3-7 in regular-season games and 6-17-1 as double-digit favorite in Pac-10 play. However, the Trojans are on positive pointspread surges of 35-17 at home, 7-3 as a home favorite, 5-0 at home against teams with a winning record and 9-3 following a non-cover.
The Beavers have stayed below the posted total in five straight road games, but soared over the number in five of seven after a spread-cover and five of six as a road ‘dog of 10½ points or more. USC is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 21-8-1 overall, 17-5-1 at home, 25-10-1 as a favorite, 33-16-2 in conference action, 8-2 in October and 23-9-1 on grass. Finally, the “under” is on a 5-2 tear in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ALCS
L.A. Angels (5-3) at N.Y. Yankees (6-2)
The Yankees try again to wrap up the best-of-7 American League Championship Series and punch their ticket to the World Series when they send veteran Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.08 ERA) to the hill opposite the Angels’ Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.52) in a battle of southpaws in new Yankee Stadium.
The Angels staved off elimination with Thursday’s 7-6 victory in a wild Game 5 in Anaheim, Calif. Los Angeles tallied four runs before an out was recorded in the bottom of the first inning, then the Yankees came back with a six-spot in the top of the seventh to grab a 6-4 lead, only to see the Angels score three times in the bottom of the seventh to regain the advantage. Although L.A. closer Brian Fuentes loaded the bases with two outs in the top of the ninth, the lefty got Nick Swisher to pop out to shortstop to end the game and send this series back to the Bronx with New York holding a 3-2 advantage
Although the Angels trail in this ALCS, they’ve still won 12 of 15 overall going back to the regular season. Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional hot streaks of 5-2 on the road, 37-15 against left-handed starters, 49-23 following a victory and 4-1 after a day off. However, L.A. has lost seven of nine as an underdog and four of its last five on Saturday. Additionally, the Halos remain in playoff slumps of 6-13 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-7 in the ALCS and 2-8 as a ‘dog. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
New York, which hasn’t won the World Series since 2000, is on impressive runs of 47-19 overall, 40-11 at home, 39-12 as a favorite, 12-4 after a defeat, 5-2 on Saturday, 36-15 against lefty starters and 46-19 versus winning teams. The Yankees have won all four home playoff games this month and are 6-0 as a favorite in this postseason. However, the last time Bronx Bombers were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004.
The Yankees have still won five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 8-7 in 15 clashes in 2009. New York has also taken seven of eight from Los Angeles in the Bronx. In fact, the host is 18-5 in the last 23 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August, including 11-4 this season and 4-1 in this ALCS.
These rivals have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Saunders gave a solid effort in Game 2 in New York six days ago, allowing two runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings, but the Angels fell 4-3 in 13 innings. That ended a three-game winning streak the Angels had with Saunders pitching. Still, L.A. is 44-20 in his last 64 starts overall (7-2 last nine), 10-4 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-2 both in his last seven road starts and his last seven on Saturday. However, they’ve dropped five of Saunders’ last seven as an underdog.
Including his Game 2 start, Saunders has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings, giving up just three earned runs in the other contest. He’s now 8-4 with a 4.94 ERA in 16 road efforts this season and 2-1 with a 5.55 ERA in six career starts versus the Yankees, with the Halos winning four of those six games.
Pettitte cruised through five scoreless innings in Game 3 in Los Angeles on Monday, then served up a three-run homer to Vladimir Guerrero in the top of the sixth inning to tie the game. He went on to pitch 6 1/3 innings, giving up those three runs on seven hits, but the Angels eventually pulled out a 5-4, 11-inning victory. New York is now 1-6 in Pettitte’s seven starts against the Angels since the beginning of the 2008 season, including 0-3 in the last three (all this year). In those seven contests, Pettitte has given up 33 runs (32 earned) in 39 1/3 innings (7.32 ERA).
Despite the Game 3 defeat, the Yankees are still on several positive runs with Pettitte pitching, including 9-4 overall, 78-38 at home, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 when he pitches on four days’ rest. The 38-year-old veteran is 6-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 16 starts at new Yankee Stadium, with this being his first postseason start there. Additionally, Pettitte – the all-time leader in playoff victories – is 15-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 37 career postseason starts, including 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two outings this season and 6-2 with a 4.14 ERA in 12 League Championship Series starts.
With Saunders pitching, the Angels sport “over” trends of 16-6 overall, 8-3 on the road, 9-3-1 against the A.L. East, 6-1 as an underdog and 11-3 against winning teams. Conversely, behind Pettitte, the under is on stretches of 54-24-3 overall, 9-3 at home, 45-20-1 as a favorite and 9-3-1 against the A.L. West. However, Pettitte’s last five home starts against the Angels have topped the total, and his start in Game 3 in Anaheim barely went over.
Los Angeles is on “under” runs of 27-10-2 overall, 15-3 on the highway, 6-1 on Saturday, 4-1-1 versus lefty starters, 5-2 as an underdog, 7-1-2 in road playoff games and 6-0 in ALCS road contests. New York carries a bunch of team “under” streaks as well, including 10-4-2 overall, 9-1-1 at home, 12-3-1 as a favorite, 5-1-1 against lefty starters, 5-2-2 in the playoffs, 4-0-1 in home playoff games, 4-1 in ALCS home games, 4-1-1 after a day off and 3-1-1 on Saturday.
Finally, the over is 19-9-1 in the last 29 meetings between these squads, but while the last three games in Anaheim soared over the posted price, Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Karl Garrett
Oregon at WASHINGTON +10'
G-Man is on an 11-7 free play run the last 18 days.
For Saturday, a nice underdog play as I like the upstart Huskies of Washington to put a scare in the rested Ducks of Oregon.
Oregon was off last week, and they are expect to have starting QB Jeremiah Masoli back from his bruised knee. That being the case, the Ducks should feel pretty confident, as they have owned the Huskies of late, winning and covering the last 5 in the series. Ahh, but that was before Steve Sarkisian took over!
Washington is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season as a home dog, and that includes outright wins over USC, and Arizona in conference play.
Jake Locker is blossoming into a Heisman candidate, and being at home for this game should make it rather difficult for the visiting Ducks to pull away in this contest.
Oregon does have a huge "look ahead" game at home against Southern Cal up next, and I think they get caught in the classic "look ahead" spot here.
G-Man grabbing the points with the Huskies.
4♦ WASHINGTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Idaho +15' at NEVADA
Our comp play run stands at 47-38-4 the last 89 days.
Taking a look at Saturday's Idaho-Nevada game, and where is the love!?!?!
What has Idaho done wrong? Nothing!
Currently on a 5 game winning streak and needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible for the first time in a long time, the Vandals bring a 7-0 spread mark into this one in Reno.
We expct them to slow down the potent Nevada pistol-attack. And, offensively they should have their way through the air against the Wolfpack secondary that was torched for last week for 353 passing yards by a 1-6 Utah State team.
Can the Vandals win outright and go bowling in 2009? We are not sure about that, but plus the generous impost, we will grab the points and look for Robb Akey's team to continue their money-making ways in 2009.
Play on Idaho plus the points.
4♦ IDAHO
Bobby Maxwell
Arkansas +6 at MISSISSIPPI
I've got a FREE winner for everyone to enjoy today as I'm going to grab the points with Arkansas at Mississippi.
Arkansas has the offensive talent to blow about out any opponent. But the question is will the defense be able to stop Mississippi. I think they’ll be ready enough and give QB Ryan Mallet plenty of room to work with and he just might pull off the upset. But we’re not going to get greedy, I’m taking the points and playing Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have gone 4-1 in the last five meetings (5-0 ATS) and lost a heartbreaker last year 23-21 at home, but still cashed as six-point underdogs. Last time Arkansas visited Mississippi in 2007 they crushed the Rebels 44-8 as a 5 ½-point road favorite. The Razorbacks have cashed in seven of the last eight meetings and three of the last four on Ole Miss’ home turf.
Arkansas almost pulled off the biggest upset of the college season last week when they had Florida on the ropes but wound up losing 23-20 as a 24-point underdog. These guys have scored 40 points or more in four of six games this season and they’ve covered the number in each of the last three.
Ole Miss got a blowout 48-13 win last week over UAB as 23-point favorites, but this team just doesn’t score much against legitimate teams. Three points against Alabama, 10 against South Carolina and even just 23 against a lowly Vandy squad.
Arkansas is on ATS runs of 7-2 as an underdog, 6-0 in October contests the last two years, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-0 as a ‘dog of 3.5 to 10 points.
I like big, strong Ryan Mallet at QB. The Razorbacks’ signal caller can stand back there, survey the field and make the right decision with his cannon of an arm. Grab the points and play Arkansas in this one.
3♦ ARKANSAS
Tony Mathews
Air Force vs. Utah
Play: Air Force +9.5
This week, a team like Air force getting double digits equates to incredible value. The Falcons are a good team that, even when they lose, it is not by any big margin. In fact, this season Air Force’s 3 losses came by no more than a touchdown.
This season, the Falcon defense is the best it has been in ten years, and in all of their 7 games, the Air Force stop unit has only allowed a maximum of 20 points in any one game. The Falcon’s have been highly effective at shutting down Navy and TCU’s excellent offenses.
Over the last 4 years, Air Force has played well against Utah and won a game SU on the road (last visit). Their three other losses against the Utes came only by a margin of 3, 7, and 3.
As far as turnovers on defense go, the Falcons are ranked top in the nation and continue that efficiency every week. Last season they were +13, and then +10 in turnovers the season before.
Troy Calhoun and the Falcon squad has a highly adept offense as well as a defense with several solid playmakers. Expect this one to be a very close game.
Take the Air Force Falcons +9.5
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Stanford -6.5
Stanford at home has been money in the bank the last couple seasons and you especially have to like the Cardinal at home Saturday when you consider that they are hungry for a win off back-to-back conference losses. Stanford has the better team in this matchup this season and it will also be out for revenge after getting mopped up by ASU each of the last 3 seasons. Stanford is 8-0 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 33 to 19.1. ASU is 1-10 ATS in road games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992, losing by an average score of 20.1 to 35.5. The Sun Devils are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the points with Stanford.
LT Profits
Clemson +4.5
There was talk of the Miami Hurricanes actually being in the national title picture until they suffered their only loss vs. Virginia Tech, but we never held them in such high regard and we would not be shocked if the Hurricanes suffer their second loss today vs. the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson may be 3-3, but all three of there losses have been by four points or less and they have actually been playing better defense than Miami has, allowing only 15.3 points and 270.2 yards per game. The Tigers have been stout vs. both the run (3.0 yards per carry) and the pass (5.6 yards per attempt).
They did have their worst performance of the season three weeks ago with an inexplicable 24-21 loss to lowly Maryland, but that was followed by a bye week during which they probably worked out a lot of kinks. We say this because they rebounded with their best game of the year last week, a 38-3 demolition over Wake Forest in which they outgained the Demon Deacons 382 yards to 178. This is a talented club that can beat anyone on any given day.
Miami began the year 2-0 before getting crushed 31-7 by the Hokies. Now, they have won three straight games since then, but all of those wins have come vs. non-conference opponents including two lightweights in Florida A&M and Central Florida the last two games. Yes, the streak began with a 21-20 upset of Oklahoma, but keep in mind the Sooners were without Sam Bradford and playing with a young quarterback making his first career road start.
Yes, the Canes still deserve credit for that win, but the last two victories are no big deal and we actually feel playing those two cream puffs hurts their conditioning coming into this matchup with a hot quality opponent.
We will gladly take more than a field goal here in a game that should go down to the final gun, with an upset not beyond the realm of possibility.
Pick: Clemson +4.5
Scott Rickenbach
Oklahoma St. @ Baylor
PICK: Oklahoma St. -9.5
Situationally this spot does look good for Baylor but the problem is that their QB can't be trusted. Because of Griffin being out the #2 guy, Szymanski, has been in and he threw three picks last week against Iowa State. The Bears easily could have lost the game by much more than 14 points. Also, Szymanski has made two starts against the Cowboys in his career and Baylor has lost both and failed to cover each time. Szymanski has more picks than TD’s in those two career starts against Oklahoma State.
We really liked the Bears coming into this season and used them against Wake Forest for a big top play win early this season. However, but they truly are a different team without their ultra-talented QB and we feel it's starting to take a toll on the whole team from a psychological standpoint. Even with Oklahoma State having Texas on deck they should roll here. Keep in mind, the Cowboys were in a very similar (read: tough) scheduling spot last season too when they faced Baylor and yet they still rolled. Once again the Cowboys should cover the number here which is quite manageable since they are on the road. Consider a small play on Oklahoma State minus the points on Saturday.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Kings at Phoenix Coyotes
Prediction: Phoenix Coyotes
Phoenix is 8-2 their last 10 home games and they are 4-0 after allowing 2 or less goals in their last game. The Coyotes are 4-1 vs. winning teams and they are 4-1 when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles is 17-39 their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of over 60%. The Kings are 6-16 their last 22 road games and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. winning teams. PLAY ON PHOENIX -
Boise St. at Hawaii
Prediction: Boise St.
Boise St is 7-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and they are 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games. The Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS their last Conference games and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites. Hawaii is 0-4 ATS when playing off a straight up loss and they 4-9 ATS after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS after a game where they rushed for under 100 yards and they are 1-4 ATS as home dogs of 10.5 or greater. PLAY ON BOISE ST -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on S. Florida +6.5
The Bulls are not getting enough respect with this line. Coming off its first loss of the season, USF will be out for blood against the Pitt Panthers. USF’s defense is top notch, allowing only 286 ypg and 13.5 ppg while Pitt’s defense is allowing 329 ypg and 18.6 ppg. Pitt’s defense has been susceptible to the pass and I expect USF QB B.J. Daniels, who continues to get better and better, to give the Panthers fits with his strong arm and scrambling ability. QB Bill Stull is having a good season for the Panthers but he is yet to see a pass rush like two-time All-American George Selvie and company are going to bring to the table this week. The Bulls have 11 sacks and six interceptions over the last 3 weeks. Selvie is coming off a strong game against Cincy with a sack, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble. I expect him to be Stull’s worst nightmare. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 34-10 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Michigan +4.5
I’ll fade Penn State in their first true road test of the season against a Michigan team that takes pride in whipping them. The Wolverines have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against the Nittany Lions before getting crushed 46-17 last year at State College. Michigan is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games. Michigan will be out for blood in this one and it will have the Big House behind it where the Wolverines are 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. The only test Penn State has had is Iowa at home and the Lions were dominated by double digits in that game. Michigan played that same Iowa team on the road to a 2-point game. In other words, Michigan should not be catching this many points at home. Penn St. is 0-6 ATS vs. very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 while the Nittany Lions are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. I’ll take the points.
EZWINNERS
Oregon Ducks @ Washington Huskies
Play: Washington Huskies +10.5
This line really looks over inflated to me. The Ducks have been on a roll since their opening loss at Boise State and they have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but is the mind really focused on traveling to Washington for this game or are they thinking about the big showdown with USC next week? Washington is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to LSU and they have defeated USC and Arizona. Huskies quarterback Jake Locker might be the best player in the PAC 10. Locker is a dual threat quarterback and I expect him to give the Ducks defense all that they can handle. This Washington team can score with anyone. Take the points.
Michael Cannon
Central Michigan -9 at BOWLING GREEN
I’m on a 10-2-1 run with my last 13 overall free plays!
Take Central Michigan as the road chalk over Bowling Green.
Both teams have great offenses, but this game will come down to which defense makes the most stops and Central Michigan takes the prize there.
Bowling Green allowed 404 yards last week to a woeful Ball State team that lost its starting quarterback in the 2nd quarter.
If they can’t control Ball State, what are they going to do against the Chips’ Dan LeFevour?
LeFevour is averaging 221 passing yards per game and has a 14-4 TD-to-INT ratio. He is also the Chips’ leading rusher with 395 yards and nine TDs.
Bowling Green allows 29 ppg while Central Michigan gives up just 16 ppg.
The Chippewas are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 in MAC play.
Take Central Michigan minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Idaho at NEVADA
Take the over in the Idaho-Nevada game this afternoon.
Idaho has been one of the biggest surprises in college football this year with a record of 6-1. The Vandals have a good offensive attack led by quarterback Nathan Enderle, who has 1,735 yards passing and nine TDs.
Enderle will be throwing against a Nevada secondary that ranks near the bottom of the nation and has been a liability for the Wolfpack all season long.
Of course on the other side of the ball you have Nevada and the “Pistol” offense that they run so well. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a dual-threat who should be able to put up big numbers against an undersized Idaho stop unit.
This game should be an offensive shootout today.
Play the over.
4♦ OVER