Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 26

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to follow up their win in Game 2 and build on their 7-1 record in Joe Kelly's last 8 home starts. St. Louis is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110)

Game 955-956: Boston at St. Louis (8:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 16.411; St. Louis (Kelly) 17.899
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

CFL

Saskatchewan at Calgary
The Stampeders look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games in Calgary. Calgary is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4)

Game 295-296: Montreal at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 116.148; Hamilton 115.283
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 1; 57
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5; 53
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+5); Over

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 115.134; Calgary 125.471
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4); Under

NHL

Washington at Calgary
The Capitals look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is coming off a 5-1 loss to Dallas and is 5-11 in its last 16 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Washington is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130)

Game 51-52: Edmonton at Phoenix (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.548; Phoenix 10.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+145); Over

Game 53-54: New Jersey at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.366; Boston 13.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-220); Under

Game 55-56: San Jose at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.842; Montreal 11.399
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Over

Game 57-58: NY Rangers at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.314; Detroit 10.461
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 59-60: Buffalo at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.775; Tampa Bay 12.334
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-225); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-225); Under

Game 61-62: Philadelphia at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.126; NY Islanders 10.204
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over

Game 63-64: Pittsburgh at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.626; Toronto 11.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 65-66: Winnipeg at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.614; Dallas 10.498
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+120); Under

Game 67-68: Minnesota at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.555; Chicago 12.987
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-190); Over

Game 69-70: St. Louis at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.290; Nashville 12.137
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+105); Under

Game 71-72: Washington at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.882; Calgary 10.461
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130); Over

Bruce MarshallFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV vs. NevadaFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NevadaFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Defensive connoisseurs might want to skip this battle between the nation’s 105th and 119tth-raked stop units. And with the scoreboard at Mackay Stadium likely spinning as do the slots at nearby Harrah’s, the potential absence of key UNLV RB Tim Cornett (709 YR; knee) might tip the offensive scales in host Nevada’s favor, especially since the Wolf Pack Pistol has scored 47 ppg in last five meetings. Rebels failed to answer the bell last week at Fresno, and QB edge to Pack's versatile Cody Fajardo over Rebels' Caleb Herring, who looked shaky last week vs. Bulldogs. Nevada 8-0 SU, 6-2 vs. line in Fremont Cannon battles since 2005.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston College vs North CarolinaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Boston College +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston College doesn’t get much attention these days from the masses in college football. The Eagles used to be automatic for a bowl berth following the regular season. But the well went dry at Chestnut Hill, and the ugly 6-18 ledger for the last two seasons left BC as a nonentity coming into this campaign.
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The 2013 Eagles are doing considerably better than the previous two editions and their game at Chapel Hill on Saturday is a major test. BC is 3-3 heading in, and a win here would be huge as far as achieving their goal of getting to a bowl is concerned.
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Boston College is doing as well as they are thanks to a wealth of experience and a focus on the fundamentals. The Eagles don’t have the talent to overwhelm many teams, but they’re hanging tough by limiting mistakes and grinding for 60 minutes. Just ask Florida State and Clemson, who each got past the Eagles but had a far tougher time doing so than most envisioned.
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North Carolina is having a rough time of it. The Tar Heels are a major disappointment at 1-5, and while the second half of their season schedule is far more manageable, one can’t help but wonder about this team’s mental state at this point.
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This is also a lousy scheduling spot for North Carolina. They’re off a huge effort that all went for naught against Miami, and up next is the rivalry duel with North Carolina State. This therefore fits the parameters as far as the dreaded sandwich spot goes, particularly as these teams haven’t met since 2009. So even though they’re ACC rivals, it sure doesn’t have any kind of rivalry feel to it.
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The early money has come in on the visitors, so the number isn’t as attractive as it was on Sunday night. But I still feel BC is worth going after as long as a TD is available. The teams power rate about even, but I think the motivation and scheduling each clearly favor the road team. Boston College plus the points is the play.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno State vs. San Diego StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Diego StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Aztecs have bounced back from an 0-3 start to the season by rattling off three straight wins, putting them just a game back of the Bulldogs in the Mountain West standings. While a loss to Eastern Illinois in their opener looks pretty ugly, you can't fault them much for losing to OSU and Oregon State.
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The Bulldogs are 6-0, but two of those victories came by just a single point, and one of those was a miracle comeback to force overtime at home versus Rutgers. In fact, the only reason they won that game was because of a questionable coaching decision that saw the Scarlet Knights go for a two-point convert instead of tying the game in OT.
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The public love Fresno State and it's 5th ranked offense, led by Derek Carr, younger brother of David Carr (Houston Texans 2002-2007). As much as they can score points though, their defense hasn't been able to keep anybody out of the endzone. The Bulldogs are allowing opponents an average of over 30 points per game, ranking 89th in the nation. These numbers are particularly alarming when you consider they haven't played any ranked teams, and they've surrendered a total of 65 points against the likes of Hawaii, Idaho and UNLV in their last three games.
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Despite the fact that the Bulldogs have covered the points just once in six games, they are once again laying heavy chalk on the road Saturday night.

Red Dog Sports

Western Michigan vs. UMass
Play: Under 46½

Western Michigan has played 2 overs and 6 unders while UMass has 0 overs and 7 unders. The Minutemen have struggled to score and that has led to all unders. WMU has had many totals set in the 50's since they do have a decent offense but I think we see a game in the 30-14 range that stays under the total.

Greg Shaker

Iowa St. +13

This line opened at Cris/BM at 17 and within minutes it was beat down to it's current level which is 13 at most outs and 12.5 at a couple of sharper one's. It's that time of the year when back bad football teams is not a good thing to do but are the Iowa Cyclones a bad team? They certainly were last week but this team has been competitive this year, especially here at Ames. They might be the best 1-5 team in the country and prior to last week had covered 3 straight. This will be the 3rd time they have faced the spread option so they certainly should have learned something, and the fact is, this one will be the 3 worst they have faced. Oklahoma State QB's have been throwing a lot of INT's and the Cowboys just are not as good as they were last year in many ways. Van Gundy does not even know at this point who will start as signal caller. They come into this affair at 0-6 ATS on their last 6 road trips and 1-7 ATS as well. This series has produced a 6-1 ATS Mark for the Home Team. And let's not forget that the last time OK State visited Ames they were ranked 2nd in the country as a 27 Point Favorite and were stunned with a 37-31 loss. Iowa State was humiliated last week by Baylor. I suspect that they will be practicing hard for this one and I am grabbing the points..

Pittsburgh -5

I'm not Terribly impressed with a lot of things concerning the Panthers but they do stop the run very well at just 3.8 YPC. Navy has trouble doing anything on defense and most likely going to be giving up a lot of points verses the very balanced offense they will face Saturday. This line has been wacky all week with an open of 6.5, down to 5, back up to 7, and now as low as 4.5 at Cris/BM. The Consensus Line is 5 and that is what we will go with here. And yes laying points on the road is not my usual...

JR O'Donnell

Boston College +7.5

BC Eagles to stay inside the 7.5 Saturday as we will fire on a Senior laden crew with a great coach from Temple Steve Addazio... The Press is chirping that these "Eagles still have an opportunity to achieve their goal of becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010. The Eagles went toe to toe with the hottest team in the nation FSU... 48-34 as yes they hung a 34 spot on the Noles...

Larry Ness

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma

I’ve been a huge critic of Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, calling him “Big Game Blob” and he sure proved me right once again, losing to Texas back on Oct 12 as nearly two-TD favorites, 36-20. That said, it’s not as if I can’t (and haven’t in the past), found times to play on his Oklahoma Sooners. One of those situations is this Saturday, when the Sooners host the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders are led by first-time head coach Kliff Kingsbury (former QB at Lubbock), who took over an 8-5 team from last year.

Texas Tech began the 2013 season unranked in ANY preseason poll and totally ‘under the radar’ but as we head in the final weekend of of October, the Red Raiders check in at 7-0 (4-0 in the Big-12), ranked No. 10 in the AP and 10th in the first BCS standings of the year, as well. Kingsbury first named freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield his starting QB and Mayfield guided Texas Tech to five wins before suffering a knee injury in a 54-16 win over Kansas on Oct 5. So what happens? Kingsbury turns to another freshman, Davis Webb, who leads the team to two more wins.

Davis has completed 71 of 106 passes in his two starts, for 877 yards with five TDs and one INT. He’s become the first Red Raiders freshman to pass for at least 400 yards in his first two starts and in last week's 37-27 comeback win at West Virginia, his 462-yard performance broke Billy Joe Tolliver's freshman record of 422 yards set in 1985, as he helped erase an 11-point, third-quarter deficit. "The more reps he gets, the better he gets and the more confidence he gets," said Kingsbury, who played quarterback for the Red Raiders from 1999-2002. "It's encouraging to have a young QB like that and have guys step up around him and make those plays."

Now here’s the rub regarding Texas Tech. With TCU losing last week, every team Texas Tech has defeated in the Big 12 in 2013 (TCU, Kansas , Iowa St and West Va) has a losing record overall, as well as a combined 2-12 mark in Big 12 play! The Red Raiders still have Oklahoma St, Kansas St., Baylor and Texas after this meeting with Oklahoma and my prediction is, we won’t being seeing the Red Raiders for much longer in the national polls or the BCS standings (hold me to that!).

The Sooners (6-1, 3-1) lead the nation, allowing just 149.7 YPG passing yards and just held Kansas to 201 total yards, including only 16 yards through the air, the fewest passing yards they've allowed since beating Arkansas in the 2002 Cotton Bowl. The home team had won seven straight meetings in this series before the last two seasons, when the road teams came out victorious. You KNOW Stoops will remind his team that the last time the Red Raiders visited Norman, they ended Oklahoma’s 36-game home winning streak with a 41-38 victory as 29-point dogs. It was payback time last year in Lubbock and the Sooners ‘dusted’ the Red Raiders, 41-20.

Yes, Oklahoma got its ‘pound of flesh’ with that win but the 2011 home loss still has to ‘sting’ plus with Oklahoma's loss to Texas, Big Game Blob and the Sooners no longer have any margin for error in the team’s quest for a Big 12 title (and BCS Bowl bid). There will likely be other opportunities to go-against Bob Stoops and the Sooners but the situation is NOT here, up against a VERY overrated Texas Tech team. Lay the points.

Harry Bondi

NORTH CAROLINA -7 over Boston College

Last we saw Boston College, the team was hanging with Clemson at home in an eventual 24-14 loss as 24-point underdog. But don’t be fooled by that effort. This was a perfect spot for the Eagles, who clearly caught the Tigers looking past BC and ahead to its major showdown with Florida State the next week. Other than that game, BC has been overmatched in any game against a team with more team speed, as seen by losses Southern Cal (35-7) and Florida State (48-24). The Tar Heels will definitely have a speed advantage is this game and come in a bit underrated. Larry Fedora’s crew put forth its best effort of the season last Thursday night in a near upset of 7th-ranked Miami-Florida and despite the fact that the loss dropped the team to 1-5, there were some real positives that came out of the game, most notably the emergence of tight end Eric Ebron and tailback T.J. Logan. After playing three teams currently ranked in the top 20, the Tar Heels see an opportunity to get back into bowl game contention as their next three opponents are .500 or worse. The turnaround begins here, where NC is 10-6 ATS as a home favorite the last three seasons.

Strike Point Sports

Utah (+7) over USC

Apparently oddsmakers aren't getting the hint: this Trojans team isn't all that good. I know Southern Cal is home against another average Pac-12 team in Utah, but that still doesn't validate a struggling USC laying a touchdown in this game. The Utes, albeit at home, did beat a really good Stanford team. That's a lot more than USC can say as far as their best win of the season is concerned. I think this one will be fairly low scoring, and the points will be good. There's definite value in the underdog here because oddsmakers are overvaluing a team that has not proven itself thus far on the season. Give me the touchdown and Utah in Los Angeles.

River City Sports

North Texas at Southern Miss.
Play: North Texas -11

The “play against” angle with Southern Miss is still in play. Last week, we cased an easy winner with ECU routing Southern Miss and we expect more of the same this week. Quite simply, Southern Miss struggles to score any points. Meanwhile, the Mean Green have won two in a row and are on the improve. The Golden Eagles only average 12 points per game, while allowing over 40 ppg. North Texas routed La Tech last week 28-13 and are on their second game of a back-to-back road scenario. Even with that and the fact they are a DD road favorite for the first time since 2003, we still like North Texas to get it done against a Southern Miss team that has thrown in the towel.

Sam Martin

Fresno St. at San Diego St.
Prediction: Fresno St.

Bulldogs come into this weekend unbeaten at 6-0, and should have an easy go of it this Saturday night against San Diego State. Fresno State has put up big offensive numbers again this year, scoring at least 38 points in every game, but big pointspreads have this team just 1-5 against the spread on the season.

That lack of success at the betting window finally gives us some line value here, with a double-digit win more than enough to cover this pointspread. That's exactly what we expect to see as San Diego State has given up big yardage against the better passing teams they've faced (already 360+ passing yards allowed on three occasions) and there's no letdown or lookahead for Fresno to be distracted.

Bulldogs won this game by 12 points as an 8-point favorite last year, and win by double-digits as a similarly-priced favorite this time around.

Tom Stryker

Notre Dame vs. Air Force
Play: Notre Dame -19½

Before I get to this week's complimentary selection, I would like to personally thank those of you that invested in a subscription package. There have been a number of winning selections this football season and I'm working extremely hard to ensure that there are a lot more. Save big money when you pick up a day, week or month of service. Thanks again and now on to this week's free winner.

Since dropping back-to-back decisions to Navy in 2009 and 2010, Notre Dame has showed no mercy in its last four against military schools. The Irish have faced Army once, Air Force once and Navy twice since those blemishes and won and covered all four by the combined score of 192-60. That's an average beating of 48-15.

The Falcons looked great in their season-opening 38-13 win over Colgate. Unfortunately, that's been it this season for the Flyboys. The Force has quietly dropped six straight (1-4 ATS) by an average of 19.1 points per game and the X's and O's just don't help them in this mismatch.

Defensively, AFA is in trouble. The Falcons are ranked 116th in total defense (allow an avg of 488.7 ypg) and 113th in scoring (surrender an avg of 37.6 ppg). Even though Notre Dame's offense hasn't posted big numbers this year (avg 25.4 points and 374.3 ypg), quarterback Tommy Rees and the boys can break things open big time against AFA's Swiss cheese stop unit. As usual, Air Force's offensive strength is their runnings game (avg 268.6 ypg). Unfortunately, that smashes right into the muscle of the Fighting Irish "D". Against the run, UND's defensive front seven has an average of only 123.3 yards per game. Simply put, if Air Force can't run, they have no chance to even stay close.

In this series, the Irish hold a solid 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS record including a strong 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS mark in Colorado Springs. With only Navy on deck, head coach Brian Kelly can open things up a bit on both sides of the ball and let the Dame flex their muscles a little bit. Take Notre Dame.

Bill Biles

Nebraska vs. Minnesota
Play: Nebraska -10

Taylor Martinez comes back for Nebraska, and this is the perfect spot for him to shake off the rust. They will be a bit careful with Taylor in the early going but he will get it going in the second half completing passes to Abdullah who will record another 100 yard game.