Brandon Shively
Toledo vs. Bowling Green
Play: Bowling Green -3½
I said at the beginning of the season and will say it again, Bowling Green is the best team in the MAC and should finish the season with a top 20 ranking. Today, they have the benefit of a well needed bye week and this is a game that the seniors of Bowling Green have had circled. The last time Bowling Green beat Toledo was in 2009, so this game definitely means something to them.
Bowling Green is 4-0 SU at home this year and their defense has been terrific, only allowing an average of 9 ppg at home. Bowling Green improved their defense 109 yards from last year, and have the MAC's best defense again this year. The one bad game was @ Indiana, which we all know the Hoosiers can put up points, as we saw last week vs. Michigan.
Bowling Green has the situational advantage in this game. A week of rest with a revenge, and 19 returning starters, and I know HC Clawson will have his troops ready. Toledo is in off a 2OT win @ Navy, which I feel calls for a let-down today.
Toledo has a strong running game, but this is nothing new for Bowling Green. Last year they held Toledo's star running back Fluellen to 81 yards on the ground and I expect another stellar outing from Bowling Green's defense at home behind the home crowd. Bowling Green is only allowing 283 ypg at home this year and while Toledo will be their stiffest test yet, I do not project Toledo to get over 350 yards in this game. Quarterback Owens for Toledo does not have a great arm as evidenced by his 5 TD/ 6 INT mark this year, while Bowling Green has a double deuce attack that can score on the ground or through the air.
Overall, I feel like Bowling Green has a much better team (offense and defense), they are off a bye week, they are playing with revenge, and I will factor in the home crowd also as a factor. Bowling Green starts 10 juniors and seniors on the defensive side of the ball, and I really feel that defense will play a big factor in this game. Look for Toledo to make some turnovers and Bowling Green to capitalize. I expect a victory today in the 10-14 point range.
Trends:
Home team is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Bowling Green is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Doug Upstone
Nebraska vs. Minnesota
Play: Nebraska -10
On Saturday, Play On teams like Nebraska who are 3.5 to 10 point favorites, off a double digit road win, against opponent (Minnesota) who is off a road win. In the past five years, these teams are a perfect 28-0 SU and 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent. The average margin of victory has been 19.3 points a contest!
Freddy Wills
Tulsa vs. Tulane
Play: Tulsa -2½
I'll take my chances with Tulsa this week who have an extra week to prepare for a must win game. Tulsa has been the conference's biggest disapointment while Tulane has been the biggest surprise. What does that mean? Well we have a 2-4 team favored on the road against a 5-2 team. Tulane offense has struggled big time so this is a nice match up for Tulsa and a very winnable game. Tulane is 109th in total yards and 115th in yards per play. Tulsa will attack an offensive line that's already allowed 22 sacks. Tulsa's pass rush is ranked 39th and they should get good push with linebacker Shawn Jackson and ends Alexander and Todd.
So why is Tulane favored? That's a great question part of it is that vegas knows the public will bet an under dog with a better record at home and part of it is that Tulane has played great on defense as they are holding opponents to under 3 yards per carry. That's the key to this game. Can Tulsa establish the run? I think they can part of Tulane's great stats are inflated because they played rushing offenses ranked 122nd, 88th, and 111th the last three weeks. Tulsa has 3 games with 200+ yards and are bigger and more physical up front and they feature an NFL caliber running back in Trey Watts.
Tulsa has dominated this series with 43-12 average score the last 8 meetings dating back to 2005. The game has never been within 24 points and although Tulane is making strides their offense is one of the worst in the league. They have relied heavily on turnovers and special teams and Tulsa should be able to win at least one of those battles. This is just a game that Tulsa has their backs against the wall with everything left ahead of them. They have had a very tough schedule to start and they'll benefit from their conference dominance where they have gone 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games.
Jack Jones
Wake Forest +24
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played their best football in their past two games heading into this one. They beat NC State 28-13 at home on October 5 despite being an 8-point underdog. Then, as a 4.5-point home dog to Maryland last week, they ripped the Terrapins 34-10. Quarterback Tanner Price has been playing his best football as well. He completed 26 of 36 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown against Maryland after going 24 of 39 for 268 yards and three touchdowns against NC State.
This is a huge letdown spot for Miami. It has a game at No. 2 Florida State on deck next weekend, and it won’t be able to help but look ahead to that contest. This is a Hurricanes team that has been playing careless football for weeks, and it could come back to bite them against Wake Forest if they don’t show up. Miami has committed exactly four turnovers in each of its last three contests. It needed a late touchdown to escape with a 27-23 win at North Carolina last week as an 8.5-point favorite.
I have been very impressed with Wake Forest’s defense this season. It has given up just 20.3 points and 367.7 yards per game to rank 37th in the country in total defense. After giving up 401 total yards to Georgia Tech on October 5, the Hurricanes surrendered 500 total yards to North Carolina last week. They have sprung some leaks on defense recently as well. Price could easily keep his solid play going against a Miami defense that gave up 395 passing yards to the Tar Heels.
The Demon Deacons are 4-1 against the spread in their last five October games. Wake Forest is 5-2 against the number in its last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game. The last two meetings between Wake Forest and Miami have been decided by a combined seven points. I could easily see the Demon Deacons keeping this one close as Miami fails to show up with Florida State on deck. Bet Wake Forest Saturday.
Steve Janus
Washington Huskies -27
While the Huskies 29-point loss at Arizona State last week could have you thinking this team has thrown in the towel on the season, I wouldn’t be so quick to count this team out. Washington was coming off two emotional and very hard fought losses to Stanford and Oregon and likely had nothing left in the tank against the Sun Devils. I have to believe the veterans on this team, including senior quarterback Keith Price, won’t let this team quit.
I actually think this is a great spot to jump on Washington even with the huge spread. We saw Georgia Tech in a very similar spot last week. The Yellow Jackets had lost three straight games against quality opponents and came out an annihilated Syracuse 56-0. I look for the Huskies to take out their frustrations on a Cal team that simply isn’t very good. All six of the Golden Bears losses this season have come by at least 14-points and both of their two road games have resulted in defeats of at least 27 points.
A lot of people will look at the fact that the Cal comes into this game ranked 8th in the country in passing offense, averaging 359.9 ypg, and assume at worst they will be able to play catchup at the end. That hasn’t been the case in the past. Road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points who are averaging more than 255 passing yards/game are just 20-51 (28.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Adding to this is that Washington comes in ranked 16th in the country against the pass, giving up just 194.9 ypg. Their weakness has been stopping the run, where they have allowed 179 or more yards in each of their last four games. The Golden Bears largest output o the ground all season is 149 yards.
Alex Smart
Tulsa vs. Tulane
Play: Tulane +3
QB Nick Montana, of Tulane has completed 102-of-183 passes for 1,116 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions, but is still not 100% because of an injury and has been limited in practice. Thats why I did not list this selection as quality premium play. However, his backup Devin Powell, who made his first start of the season in the ECU victory, passed for 224 yards, completing 23-of-39 attempts for two touchdowns. He threw one interception. The second year pivot looked really good, and Im betting if he plays against a below average Tulsa D more success will be registered! Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Eddie J
Northwestern vs Iowa
Pick: Northwestern
Northwestern will try to salvage their season when they play Iowa. Northwestern was a drive away from knocking off Ohio State and becoming kings of the Big Ten. Since then they have lost all 3 of their Big ten games and will be in desperation mode vs Iowa. Northwestern will get QB Kain Colter back and have had great success against Iowa. NW is 6-2 SU against Iowa L8 and 3-1 SU at Iowa L4. NW covered in all 4 wins. NW hasn't covered L5 games and is on the verge of going 0-4 in BIG Ten play. NW is a top 15 team in my opinion. NW will show it Saturday and win SU.
Jeff Clement
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Play: Michigan State -10
Michigan State(6-1) vs. Illinois(3-3) is the free play of the week! Michigan State's defense has been outstanding only allowing 13.6 points per game which ranks 4th in the nation and shutout Purdue last week 14-0. They have only allowed a team to score over 20 points once this year so if they can score their 28.1 offensive average on Saturday they should cover this game. I predict Michigan St. will win 30-16. Illinois is 1-8 ATS against Michigan St. and Michigan St is 8-1 SU in last 9 games.
AC Dinero
Fresno State vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State +9
Fresno St is the top choice as a BCS buster. If they are to lose a game, this is the prime candidate. The Bulldogs do own the edge in all the major statistics, but San Diego St has played much better after a rough start, winners of the last 3 games. The Aztecs are particularly good defending the run, one of the key elements when trying to upset a road favorite. After adding in the edge in the kicking game, San Diego St has an excellent chance in this game, a TD either way.
Bryan Leonard
South Carolina at Missouri
Play: South Carolina +3
The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule and they are playing their third straight game on the road. But it's also their last road game of the season, and other than a year ending game against in-state rival Clemson the path looks to be smooth sailing with a win here. South Carolina is 14-10 ATS in the road dog role and in Steve Spurrier's coaching career he is 39-26-1 SU off an outright loss. The Gamecocks have out gained every opponent this year except Georgia, and have virtually identical numbers in all the key statistics despite Missouri playing a little easier schedule. A major reason for Missouri being favored here is turnovers. They have lost only 3 fumbles this year while the Gamecocks have lost 9. That's likely not a sustainable stat. South Carolina's defense is better than the stats show as they are only allowing 11.2 first downs per game on first and second down. That means they have the ability to limit big plays and make the offense work harder than the raw numbers show.
While South Carolina is off a loss as a road favorite at Tennessee, Missouri is in a letdown spot this week. Two weeks ago Missouri as a 7 point road underdog shocked Georgia. Unfortunately starting QB James Franklin went down in that contest and is likely out for the entire season. In stepped highly touted QB Maty Mauk who not only didn't falter against Georgia, but he led the team to a victory last week against Florida. Teams have a tendency to pull together in the face of key injuries which is exactly what the Tigers did. But now after the back to back huge victories to put Missouri on the map a letdown is sure to occur.
Missouri is a very good team but the situation calls for the Gamecocks here. We get a terrific spot with at least a team of equal ability at a nice underdog price.
Stephen Nover
Ohio St. -14.5
Trailing Alabama, Oregon and Florida State in the Top 25 poll, unbeaten Ohio State needs a signature victory.
The Buckeyes came out flat against Iowa last week trailing in the third quarter before winning, 34-24, at home.
Elite teams that were sloppy the week before rarely play subpar two weeks in a row. Look for Urban Meyer to have the Buckeyes fired up to run up a big score. They have the quarterback, Braxton Miller, and running back, Carlos Hyde, to accomplish that.
I like Penn State coach Bill O'Brien and his freshman quarterback, Christian Hackenberg. If they stay together they could become a college version of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
But this isn't their spot and Hackenberg isn't ready yet. This is just the Nittany Lions' second true road contest. They were hammered 44-24 at Indiana two games ago. The Hooisers gained close to 500 yards, throwing for 336 yards. This road venue and foe is far more difficult for Penn State.
The Nittany Lions have played a very easy schedule having beaten Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. They are not battled tested enough to hang on the road with this caliber of opponent. Expect the Buckeyes to cover for the eighth time in the last 10 home meetings against the Nittany Lions.
Dave Essler
Colorado +13
This one was simply an initial lean from my early-week thread and if it's going to move that much I am not leaving it off. I love to fade those Southwest/dry/hot weather teams this time of the year coming to Colorado, where it is none-of-the-above and the air is simply unbreathable for most of those kids.
Carlos Salazar
Baylor -34.5
It's not often you can say a 34.5 point favorite is a bad line but when your team can score 69+ points it is (which Baylor has in five of its games). Carlos says this line should be more like 60 and that Baylor will cover the 34.5 with ease.
Alex Smith Sports
Georgia Tech at Virginia
Pick: Over
The Yellow Jackets fly north to Va. to take on the Cavs in an ACC showdown that pits two smash-mouth clubs together. Geo Tech has dominated the ground game as usual with their Triple Option attack. Last week, they obliterated Syracuse 56-0 by running for 388 yards. Now, they face a Virginia team who have given up 125+ yards Last 3 games against teams who pass more than they rush. The Cavaliers should put up some points in this contest, but I like Georgia Tech to help push this game Over the posted total.
Marc Lawrence
North Carolina St at Florida St
Prediction: North Carolina St
lthough they may not want to hear it in Nike Country, this might be a better gauge of who the real No. 2 in the first BCS poll released last Sunday should be: the Seminoles? FBS foes are 21-12 combined this season, while the Ducks? FBS opponents are just 18-24. To be honest, we are still trying to put our jaws back in place after watching the carnage in Death Valley last Saturday night, but give all the credit in the world to Jimbo Fisher, Jameis Winston and the entire FSU program. Just think what Fisher has overcome this season: the loss of six assistant coaches, having four NFL draft picks from the defensive line alone (and that doesn?t even include the other 1st-rounders, EJ Manuel and Xavier Rhodes, plus five others!) and a 5-9 record in ACC games away from Doak Campbell Stadium during his tenure. But for all the kudos, consider that after such a huge performance, a natural letdown is in order. Plus, the Wolfpack presents a dangerous dog off back-to-back losses with a week of rest, not to mention that they have covered seven of the last eight games in this series - including a confidence building 17-16 win last season as 17-point dog . Add to that State?s 7-2 ATS mark as conference dogs of 10 points or more, and a 14-3 SU and 12-2-2 ATS mark off a loss the last 5 years, including 9-1 SU and 8-0-2 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents, and you get the picture. So, even though FSU has covered their last four games before playing Miami, be aware that this is a premium spot to go against the Noles. Pack up the points in this meaty sandwich. We recommend a 1-unit play on NC State. Thank you and good luck as always.