Matt Fargo
Boston College vs. North Carolina
Play: Boston College +7
We won with North Carolina last Thursday night as it stayed within the number against Miami. It was a devastating outright loss for the Tar Heels however as they were up by 10 points in the fourth quarter but gave up the final 14 points including the game winning touchdown with just 16 seconds remaining. Recovering from that defeat will be difficult not to mention recovering from four straight losses on top of that. Against the Hurricanes, the defense played exceptional for three plus quarters as the only touchdown given up was on a blocked field goal return. But when it was all said and done, North Carolina allowed 556 yards and is now ranked 106th in the nation in total defense, allowing 456 ypg. On the other side, the offense produced against Miami but in five trips into the redzone, the Tar Heels walked away with just one touchdown, settling for three field goals and that other one that was blocked. Now they face the 3rd ranked redzone defense in the country so expect those struggles to continue. Boston College is 3-3 on the season following a loss at Clemson two weeks ago. The Eagles have dropped three of their last four games but with the exception of a loss at USC, they could not be more competitive. They led both Clemson and Florida St. so while it may be a case of both teams not taking Boston College too serious, the fact is the Eagles are not laying down for anyone. After a 2-10 season a year ago, the Eagles have already surpassed that win total and with a very favorable remaining schedule, they could make a run at a bowl game, the first since 2010. Two stats stand out for the Tar Heels and those are rushing offense and defense where they are ranked 114th and 101st respectively. Those will not win many games and considering North Carolina is 1-5, that is holding true. Boston College is better in both categories and it possesses the best player on the field in Andre Williams. The running back is the ACC's leading rusher and fifth overall in the nation, averaging 139.7 ypg. Williams, who has already rushed for more than 200 yards twice this season, will need 162 yards to reach the 1,000 mark for the season. My guess is that he gets it. Boston College is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss while the Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Don't be surprised to see the outright win here.
Dave Price
Colorado +14
Arizona snapped a two-game losing streak with a 35-24 home win over Utah, but now it's back on the road where it is 0-2 SU and ATS in its last two. The Wildcats are just 2-11 in their last 13 conference road games, which is why I feel they are being overvalued here. Colorado is 0-3 SU and ATS in Pac-12 play, but those losses came to Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona State - teams that are 18-3 combined. The Buffaloes enjoyed a confidence-boosting 43-10 win over Charleston Southern last week, and I believe it will be able to carry the momentum into this contest. The Buffs will be lacking no motivation as they look to avenge last season's 56-31 loss at Arizona. Something tells me this one will go much differently. Colorado upset the Wildcats 48-29 as a double-digit home dog in 2011, and I think we could see history repeat itself Saturday. The Wildcats have been an awful play when laying this large of a number. In fact, they are just 9-22 ATS since 1992 when listed as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The interesting thing about this trend is that they've won these games by only 9.6 points on average. That's nearly a point less than the lowest number we're looking at in this set. Clearly, Arizona hasn't proven it can be trusted as big chalk. Take the points.
Teddy Covers
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma
Here in Las Vegas, professional bettors are laughing at Texas Tech’s Top 10 national ranking. Just like last week, when the betting markets told everybody that Florida State was the ‘right side’ against Clemson, this week, the markets are saying that the Red Raiders great start is more about schedule as it is about talent.
Make no mistake about it. Kliff Kingsbury’s squad has been feasting on the weak. Their only win all year against an opponent with a winning record came against 4-3 Texas State from the Sun Belt Conference. Texas Tech has beaten nothing but weaklings in Big 12 play: Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia and TCU; teams that are a combined 2-12 SU in conference this year. The meat of their schedule starts this week at Oklahoma, with matchups against Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas still to come. I’m not expecting this squad to have a similar level of success over the back half of the campaign.
I’m not going to be able to make any sort of a case for Oklahoma based on statistics, because Texas Tech has such good numbers against their weak foes, while the Sooners have already stepped up in class several times this season. But it’s surely worth noting that Bob Stoops stop unit has held six of their first seven foes to 21 points or less. It’s also worth noting that this team is 61-4 SU in their last 65 home games dating back to 2003; taking care of business in Norman.
And against common opponents, you can clearly see the defensive differences between these two squads. West Virginia had 27 points, 23 first downs and 437 yards of offense against Texas Tech. Against Oklahoma, the Mountaineers managed only a single touchdown. TCU gained 401 yards and 23 first downs against the Red Raiders. Against the Sooners, TCU had ten first downs and 210 total yards; 75 of which came on a garbage time TD drive in the last two minutes with the outcome already decided. There’s a legitimate class difference between these two stop units that simply isn’t reflected enough in this pointspread.
Oklahoma played a bad game against Texas and survived their ‘hangover’ contest in a lethargic performance at Kansas last Saturday. Now, returning home to face a team they blasted 41-20 last year, to go along with recent 45-7 and 65-21 home wins over the Red Raiders, I’m perfectly willing to ask the Sooners to win this one by a TD or more.
Advantage Sports
Boston College vs North Carolina
Pick: Boston College
When your coach calls his team's prior game "The most important game of our season" (I may be paraphrasing here) and they blow a 4th quarter lead to lose on their home field, it sets up a real letdown situation when you have to get off the mat as a conference favorite in your next game... that is the situation facing Larry Fedora and his UNC Tar Heels off the bitter defeat to Miami-Florida last week on national TV. BC has gone toe to toe in ACC play with the beasts of the conference in Florida State and Clemson and held their own, plus covered the number in both.The Golden Eagles have covered three in a row and has the best running back on the field in Andre Williams, not to mention solid and consistent senior quarterback Chase Rettig. Mr. Rettig has been at BC so long that an acquaintance said "He has been at BC longer than John Belushi was at Faber College in Animal House"... regardless, UNC has some cluster injuries on defense and their own quarterback Bryn Renner has been dealing with a fairly severe ankle injury for the past few weeks, yet still competing. The Hells really lost more than many expected when their own running back Gio Bernard went off to the Bengals and NFL paydays. UNC has lost four in a row straight up and has likely cashed in their chips for 2013 with little chance of a major bowl, if they even get an invite while BC can take a huge step toward bowl eligibility with a win here. BC sits at 3-3, but one win was against FCS Villanova. The schedule the rest of the way has some tricky spots with Va. Tech coming up at home next, but winnable games after that against New Mexico State, Maryland, Syracuse and NC State. In terms of current form, BC is playing better and with a new toughness under Steve Addazio. Getting over a TD against a fading conference foe is always a good situational play. I have to wonder about the Tar Heels mindset after blowing that 10 point, 4th quarter lead in their coaches self-described team's biggest game, while BC has had the pleasure of a week off prior to this one. A solid "TAKE" with the Eagles, and look at a ML play on them as well at +210 or better.
Jim Feist
Troy vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -10
Troy is 2-3 its last 5 games and is at the end of a brutal scheduling spot, playing its 5th road game in 6 weeks. The Trojans are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 conference games. Troy has all kinds of trouble on defense giving up 33.7 ppg (107th in the nation). The Trojans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Western Kentucky has great balance on offense, averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing. They've won 3 of 4 games and the Hilltoppers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games overall. And the Troy Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play Western Kentucky.
Jimmy Boyd
Texas +2½
The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between the Longhorns and Horned Frogs. TCU has been a major disappointment this season, posting a 3-4 overall record and losing two of their last three games. The Longhorns on the other hand come into this game with a 4-2 overall record, have have won three consecutive games. Texas is undefeated in Big 12 play, and they are coming off a 16-point win over an Oklahoma team that defeated TCU by three points. The Longhorns are also coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for this matchup.
Texas is averaging 33 points per game this season. Their ground attack has been hard to stop, rushing for 203 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. They are not a one-sided team on offense though. The Longhorns are also completing over 60% of their pass attempts for another 254 yards of offense. They have outpaced the Horned Frogs by 127 yards of offense per game this season. Defensively they could stand to improve, but they face a TCU team that is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and completing a mere 57.6% of their pass attempts. If not for a 38 point performance against SE Louisiana, and a 48 point performance against SMU the Horned Frogs would average a mere 18.2 points per game this season.
Kyle Hunter
Stanford vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +4½
The Oregon State Beavers have a great passing attack, and that is the weakness of the Stanford defense. Brandin Cooks may be the best wide receiver in the country and this should be a huge game for him. Sean Mannion has thrown 29 TD's and just 3 INT's so far this year. The Beavers have a very good home field advantage in Corvallis. Stanford is coming off to consecutive huge games in a row. Can they give max effort for a third straight game? I like the value on the home dog here. Take Oregon State.
Chip Chirimbes
UCLA vs. Oregon
Play: UCLA +24
Last week UCLA found out what it's like to play with the 'big boys' as Stanford dominated the Bruins in an easy victory. Meanwhile, The Ducks were destroying Washington State who score two meaningless touchdowns in the final three minutes. Oregon has won the last four meetings and has scored 55 or more points in six of it's seven games. Last weeks loss was a learning experience for the Bruins and they will use that big-game knowledge to keep this close. Take UCLA!
Jeff Alexander
Texas +2½
Texas has rebounded from a poor start. It's 3-0 in Big 12 play and has its sights set on a conference championship. The Longhorns enter this contest full of confidence after putting the hurt on rival Oklahoma. They also enter this game fully prepared following a bye. Lastly, they enter this matchup with revenge on the mind after losing 20-13 at home to the Horned Frogs last season. Texas is the no-doubt more talented team, and it has plenty to play for. The Horned Frogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Bet Texas.
Ray Monohan
Houston +7
I don’t know why many think Rutgers is a pretty good team. Their pass defense is awful and look who is coming to town, Houston. The Cougars have a better defense than they have had in years and have one blemish on their record, a one point loss to BYU. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS and were off last week to prepare for this road game (full disclosure so was Rutgers). Houston can win this one easily and with that offense they should keep it close to the final possess either way.
Lee Williams
Colorado State vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +3
Rams head to Island after a big upset win over Wyoming.So not only are they primed to be a bit flat, they will face Hawaii team that has progressively gotten better during course of season.albeit not reflected in W/L record.Rainbow QB Schroeder has progressed considerably during season and gives Hawaii excellent chance at a SU win here against porous CSU defense.
Joseph D'Amico
Texas +2½
Texas comes in winning their L3 over KSU, ISU, and Oklahoma, posting just under 33 PPG. TCU plays well against inferior squads but falls short when facing quality foes. They are 1-3 ATS at home this season. The Horned Frogs are a mess going 2-7 ATS their L9, ranking over 95th in rushing, passing, and Total yards. Their backfield is subpar to say the least. No doubt, Longhorns RB, Jonathan Grey runs amok and allows Texas to win outright here. Take Texas.
King Creole
Bowling Green -4
Sharp players are already aware that this MAC series is one that's been dominated by the HOME team. The host in the Bowling Green / Toledo series has gone 6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. And for you Totals players, ALL six of those games have gone 'Under the Total'. There's a very good chance that the Falcons will be playing in the MAC Conference Championship game... given their current 3-0 SU record in conference play (tied with Buffalo). Their balanced offense (203 ypg rushing / 263 ypg passing) is ranked in the Top 30 in the country. And that's an offense that's 50 ypg HIGHER than Saturday's foe. In addition, we'll be laying a small number with a defense that's also 60 ypg better than the Rockets. BG's only two losses on the season (5-2 SU overall) were against a Big 10 opponent and a SEC opponent.
We'll also have a advantage at the QUARTERBACK position, as Matt Johnson (245 ypg passing / 9-2 TD-INT ratio / #34 in QB rankings) grades out much higher than Toledo's Terrance Owens (184 ypg passing / 5-6 TD-INT ratio / #105 in QB rankings). The Rockets come in off a draining double-OT win against Navy (final score 45-44) in which their defense was was torched for 414 yards. As mentioned in this week's Playbook newsletter, road teams playing WITHOUT rest off an overtime win are GREAT 'play againsts' as of late. And Toledo has followed up each of their last 6 wins with a 1-5 ATS record. We also note that road underdogs of 10 < pts playing off a SU home favorite win in which they scored AND allowed 40 or more points have gone 1-9-1 ATS in the last 5 seasons. Despite a 4-3 SU record, Toledo is only +3.0 ppg on the season.
Like they need even MORE incentive, the host Falcons bring the ultimate 'extra' in motivation to Saturday's game. And that's the 'BIG R'... as in Revenge. And we're not talking single or double Revenge. But TRIPLE Revenge for Bowling Green... for losses in each of the of the last three seasons.
MAC Conference home favorites playing REVENGE and off a SU loss (BOWLING GREEN) have gone 12-2-2 ATS since 2003 versus any opponent off a SU win (Toledo).
Let's not forget the EXTRA rest for the host Falcons. Their last game was back on Oct. 12th... when they lost on the road (but COVERED the spread) against Mississippi State.
13-2 ATS since 2008: All conference home favorites of < 7 points playing with REST... and off a SU non-conference road loss (BOWLING GREEN).
JORDAN HAIMOWITZ
03 OCT 1-2
04 OCT 1-1
05 OCT 3-0
10 OCT 2-0
12 OCT 6-0
19 OCT 5-3
22 OCT 0-1
24 OCT 2-0
25 OCT 1-0
26 OCT
3* Louisville -20
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -28
Alabama has covered 6 of the last between these two teams. Nick Saban has encouraged the Tide fans to stay until the game is over. Today he will have his team give them a reason to stay as he will not let his team take their foot off the gas today. Alabama is rolling. They have allowed 16 points in the last 5 games, while scoring 31 or more in all but one. Today they fit a powerful system that plays on favorites of more than 3 touchdowns up to -31 in conference games that scored 35 or more last out. The Tide have covered 11 of the last 12 at home if they averaged more than 6 yards per play over the last month. Alabama is 4-0 ats in tune up games before playing LSU and they have covered 10 of 11 as a conference favorite of 21 or higher. Tennessee has lost to the spread 4 of the last 5 times as a dog of 17 or more. Roll tide roll here today.