SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -½ +136 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. The Sharks have lost one game in regulation this year and it came with 1 second left in their last game in Boston in a game they absolutely dominated. Had it not been for the outstanding goaltending by Tuukka Rask, that score would have been about 6-1 in the Sharks’ favor. San Jose is dominating everyone. They outshot the B’s 39-17 and they usually create four times more scoring chances than their opposition. Ya think the Sharks are excited about playing in Montreal on a Saturday night? Damn straight they are, as they know all about Hockey Night in Canada and have not played here since 2010. The San Jose Sharks are a distant class above the rest of the league right now and the only way they lose this game will be if Carey Price dominates the same way Rask did the other night. Don’t count on that happening.
BOSTON -1½ +138 over New Jersey
It has to be extraordinary circumstances for us to suggest spotting 1½-pucks in a hockey game when totals are usually 5½ but this game warrants it. If Peyton Manning and the Broncos were playing Christian Ponder and the Vikings, it would be considered a QB mismatch of mammoth proportions. Well, Martin Brodeur against Tuukka Rask is an even bigger mismatch. Our guess is that Devils GM Lou Lamoriello has no choice but to play Brodeur in the hopes that the hall-of-fame goaltender will embarrass himself enough times to just retire early. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen but a goaltender of Brodeur’s caliber should not be in the AHL, let along the NHL. The game is faster than it’s even been and the game has simply passed this guy by. He’s by far the worst goaltender in the league that makes Nikolai Khabibulin look like Tuukka Rask but Brodeur has such a giant ego that he won’t retire. He’ll continue to cost the Devils a chance to win because he has none. Brodeur couldn’t care less about the Devils. If he did, he would walk away gracefully and allow a younger goalie to take his job to prepare this team for the future. Bottom line, Marty Brodeur has no chance of defeating the Bruins and you can take that to the bank. Furthermore, those soft goals that Brodeur inevitably allows, ends up deflating his teammates as well. As long as Brodeur keeps minding the net, we are going to play against him because he’ll be lucky to win once every 10 starts and would even lay 2½ pucks here if we had to.
PHILADELPHIA +105 over N.Y. Islanders
Regulation only. The Islanders are coming off an emotionally charged OT win in Pittsburgh last night and that makes this one a vulnerable spot. The Islanders will also turn to backup goaltender David Poulin here and that begs the question - how good could one be if they are backing up Evgeni Nabokov? The Islanders have allowed three goals or more in eight of their 10 games so far. This was a fringe playoff team that lost their captain and best defenseman in Mark Streit for nothing, lost a first line forward in Brad Boyes and replaced him with a tiny band-aid (Bouchard), and lost a quality offensive prospect in Niederreiter and replaced him with a run-of-the-mill body checking enthusiast. The Islanders are quite literally the lightest team in the league (one of two coming in at an average under 200 pounds) and they’re one of the shortest. They just don’t have the top-tier talent to contend and as a favorite, the Islanders don’t have much appeal.
The Flyers don’t have a lot of appeal either right now. They were actually outplayed by the reeling Rangers in their last game and were lucky to escape with a 2-1 win. The Flyers have just two lousy wins this season over the Rangers and Panthers both by scores of 2-1. In fact, the Flyers have not scored more than two goals in a game all season and just sent Tye MCGinn (who was playing great hockey) back to the minors after his “nine-game” trial period. So, what is there to like about Philadelphia? Well, for one, that victory over the Rangers came after a 7-day layoff so some rust was expected. Also, a single win does wonders for a teams’ psyche and confidence and that matters. Additionally, the Flyers are sticking with goaltender Steve Mason and he’s playing well, very well in fact and lastly, the Flyers are much better than most think. Once they start scoring, it should open the floodgates because this team is loaded with snipers that will not be contained much longer. Finally, this small line is rather curious too, as the Islanders just defeated the Penguins and the Flyers can’t get out of their own way. The line absolutely suggests the Flyers are extremely live here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +101 over ST. LOUIS
Joe Kelly has struggled in each of his three postseason starts so far but the damage has been minimal. That is likely to change against the Red Sox. Kelly has surrendered 18 hits in 16.1 playoff innings. He’s allowed nine runs and has walked six batters. "Pedestrian" is the best way to describe Kelly’s skills. His lack of disaster starts looks encouraging but there is a big difference between disaster avoidance and dominance. Regardless, he doesn't know how to miss bats and that severely limits his upside. His strikeout rate falls below the threshold we want in a starting pitcher when spotting a tag against a good offense. Kelly's xERA is a run and a half higher than his actual ERA thanks to a lucky and unsustainable strand rate of 83% and he still walks too many hitters given his low strikeout rate. His underlying skills say he’s on the verge of a blowup and it would not surprise to see that occur here.
Jake Peavy will feel a lot more comfortable in this pitcher’s park than he did in his previous post-season appearances. Peavy has not been sharp in two playoff starts so far but he faced the Tigers and Rays and only allowed one run in his start at the Trop, despite laboring through 5.1 innings. Peavy is a fly-ball pitcher, which is something we usually avoid backing but at this park, those fly-balls on a cool night in St. Louis will stay in the yard. Peavy is still capable of striking out a lot of batters and that alone makes him more appealing than Kelly. That said, this one is more about fading Joe Kelly with an offense that can inflict a lot of damage.
Jeff Scott Sports
Added games
3 UNIT PLAY
OHIO STATE -16 over Penn State: The Nitany Lions are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings with top 10 teams, while Ohio State is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a win. PSU is off a bye and did defeat the Wolverines in a thriller prior to their bye, but in their lone Big 10 road game they lost by 20 points at Indiana and Ohio State is a much better team than Indiana. Ohio State is in the thick of the BCS Title race and may need some big blowout wins to have any shot of getting in to the Title game. I look for them to put the hammer down in this one and win by at least 3 TDs.
2 UNIT PLAY
USC/ Utah Under 52: Hard to see this as a high scoring game. The Utes have played decent defense this year, allowing just 26.7 ppg and will be going up against a struggling USC offense that is still looking for an identity. The USC defense has had a couple of hiccups this year, but still they are one of the best units in the Pac-12 and should be able to hold down a Utah offense that makes mistakes at the crucial times that usually costs them points. Should bre a low scoring game in the coliseum tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
UNLV/ Nevada Over 68: Both teams played lower scoring games than they are used to last week, but this week with two horrible defenses and some very good offenses I see a ton of points being scored here. Nevada scores 37.3 ppg at home, while UNLV has allowed 47.3 ppg on the road this year. The Wolf Pack have allowed just 19.3 ppg at home, but one home game was vs weak scoring Hawaii and another was vs an FCS team. Nevada allowed just 16 total points in the two games. Their other home game was vs a good air force offense and they allowed 42 points in that game. The UNLV offense is a good one and will certainly get their fair share of points in this one. I look for this game to reach the 70's.
System Of The Week
Game 8 road dogs of 8 or more off 3 losses are 3-23-2 ATS, since 1980, if they allow 32.5 ppg on the year and are facing an opponent off BB losses. Play on Washington -27.5 over California
LT Profits
UCLA vs Oregon
Pick: Oregon -23
The Oregon Ducks are ranked third on the initial BCS Standings behind Florida State in second, and that could be the worst news possible for the UCLA Bruins as it should motivate Oregon to have another top performance tonight vs. a ranked opponent in an attempt to move up to the all-important two spot. The 7-0 Ducks have continued to destroy all comers despite playing to enormous points spreads, averaging 57.6 points per game while allowing only 17.3 and outgaining their foes by an enormous average of +273.3 yards! We expect nothing different tonight as UCLA scored only 10 points when it stepped up in class in a loss at Stanford last week, and Oregon represents yet another rung up the ladder. Of course it does not help that UCLA could be without leading rusher Jordan James also. Oregon is 26-8-1 ATS in its last 35 October games.
Boston vs St. Louis
Pick: Over 7
Because of Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz suffering from arm fatigue, fourth starter Jake Peavy gets the start in Game 3 of the World Series vs. Joe Kelly and the St. Louis Cardinals, and that makes this posted total seem quite small. Peavy may be the weakest link in either starting rotation, as he had just a 4.16 ERA during the regular season and then was lit up for seven earned runs in only three innings by the Tigers in Game 4 of the ALCS, which was the last game that Boston had lost before losing Game 2 of this series Thursday. Kelly was 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA for the Cardinals during the regular year, but he was not as good as those numbers as he had just a 4.01 FIP, 4.19 xFIP and 0.4 WAR. The ‘over’ is 7-2-1 in the Red Sox last 10 road games.