Johnny DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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East Carolina -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy slipped by Indiana last week despite being out-gained 417-353, thanks to playing perfect ball and not turning it over once. East Carolina won a close game, BUT put up 600 YARDS OF OFFENSE! Of the 401 yards they gave up to UAB, only 82 was on the ground. Navy will need to run to be successful and we think East Carolina will use their passing attack to offset the Navy running game on their way to an easy win and cover.
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Florida vs. Georgia
Play: GeorgiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think this line is off by 3 points. Clear over-reaction to the way Florida dominated last week and Georgia edged a win over Kentucky. The fact is, 44-11 looks really great, but Florida amassed just 180 yards of offense. Also the Gators are at a tail-end stretch that saw games in The Swamp vs LSU (W14-6) on the road at Vandy (W31-17) again, back in The Swamp 44-11 over South Carolina. Those are two hard-fought contests. Georgia, out of their bye, lolly-gagged through a terrible Kentucky game. Do you really think they spent the bye week prepping for the Wildcats? This isn't basketball being played. Georgia has the veteran QB and some pretty good freshman RBs. This game is in Jacksonville, not the Swamp, and I think Georgia is good enough to get it done here. FREE WINNER on GEORGIA BULLDOGS +7
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami (Ohio)FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Frank Solich has done a terrific job in Athens. He took over at Ohio U in 2005 and is now in his eighth season. This program began playing football back in 1894 but prior to Solich’s arrival, the Bobcats had made just two bowl appearances but in 2012, Ohio will play in a bowl game for the FIFTH time in the last eight seasons. Ohio University is 7-0 for the first time since the school’s 1968 team finished 10-0 before losing 49-42 to Richmond in the now defunct Tangerine Bowl. The Bobcats also moved into the AP’s top-25 back on Oct 14 at No. 25 (first time since the 1968 team) and then on Oct 21, moved up to No. 23 in the AP (while being idle) plus earned the school’s first-ever BCS ranking at No. 24. Now I attended Ohio U and I’m enjoying all the ‘love’ but c’mon, this is NOT a top-25 team. Ohio’s “signature” win came back on Sep 1, when it won 24-14 at Penn St, in the Bill O’Brien’s first game. As most know, the Nittany Lions opened this season 0-2 but have since won FIVE in a row. It’s possible a return trip to Happy Valley would not produce another Ohio win. Taking away the Penn St win and Ohio’s win over FCS program Norfolk St, the Bobcats’ other five wins have come over schools which are a combined 6-30 (.167)! I have no argument with QB Tyler Tettleton (60.3% / 1343 yards / 12 TDs and 1 INT) or RB Blankenship (951 YR / 135.6 YPG on 4.8 YPC) but I expect the Bobcats will have their hands full Saturday vs Miami-Ohio. The series between these rival Buckeye State schools began back in in 1908 with Miami holding a 51-35-2 edge in the history of the series. However, Ohio has won the last SIX encounters (5-1 ATS). Miami is not having a good season with its three wins coming over Southern Illinois of the FCS, UMass (0-7) and Akron (1-7). Miami's offense relies on its aerial attack, which is the second-best in the MAC with 283.4 YPG. QB Zac Dysert is a senior who has has passed for 10,444 yards with 62 TDs and 47 INTs his career. He threw for 516 yards with six TDs at Akron this season plus has also had 303-yard passing efforts at both Ohio St and Cincinnati in 2012 (both schools were unbeaten and ranked at the time of those meetings. Bottom line is this. Ohio’s last three wins have come 37-34 at UMass (now 0-7), 38-31 over Buffalo (now 1-6) and 34-28 at Akron (now 1-7). The “D” has allowed 31.0 PPG on 489.3 YPG in that stretch. I want NO part of laying about a TD on the road with the Bobcats playing their most-hated rival. Take the points with Miami-O, which is on an 11-2 ATS run as a conference ‘dog of more than three points, when playing against an opponent with a winning record (note: Ohio’s 7-0 record counts as a winning record!).
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Michigan vs. NebraskaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska’s offense has been good all year. They’ve hung at least 29 points on all seven of their previous opponents; ranked #12 out of 124 FBS teams in points per game (41.6) – right between West Virginia and Kansas State. Dual threat QB Taylor Martinez has finally matured in his third season as the starter: 67% completions; 8.7 yard per attempt and a 15-4 TD-INT ratio. WR Kenny Bell is a downfield playmaker and their top four RB’s are ALL averaging at least six yards per carry, running behind a top notch offensive line. It’s worth noting that Nebraska has put up these impressive offensive numbers despite turnover problems, committing 18 turnovers in their last six ballgames. Michigan’s overachieving defense takes a big step up in class here!
But there’s no reason to think that the Wolverines offense won’t have success themselves against a Blackshirts defense that has been positively torched; allowing 115 points in their last three ballgames while giving up chunks of yardage through the air and on the ground. Michigan’s offense is a quick strike touchdown waiting to happen; loaded with speedy playmakers. Eleven different Wolverines have scored a TD this year on a play of 20 yards or longer; eight different players have scored a 30+ yard TD in 2012. Denard Robinson has guided Michigan to 44+ points in three of their last four games. Anything close to that level of performance on Saturday and we’ll cash this Over with ease! Take the Over.
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Michigan Wolverines +2
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The Wolverines have put a couple early losses to Alabama and Notre Dame - teams that are a combined 14-0 - behind them and have gotten off to a 3-0 start in Big Ten play. After blowing out Purdue and Illinois, the Wolverines picked up a hard-earned 12-10 win against rival Michigan State last week.
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Michigan racked up 326 yards on the Spartans' 5th-ranked defense, which allows just 277.1 yards per game. It will be even more explosive Saturday against a Nebraska stop unit that ranks 44th nationally with 357.6 yards allowed per game.
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The Huskers have really struggled to slow down rushing attacks. In fact, they rank 93rd in the nation against the run with 187.9 yards allowed per game. They have their work cut out for themselves against a Michigan running game that has averaged 248.2 yards over its last six games.
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The Wolverines gashed the Cornhuskers for 238 yards on the ground in last season's 45-17 victory.
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Like Michigan, Nebraska is also very dependent on its running game. The Huskers rank 6th in the country with 279.0 rushing yards per contest, but they'll get nothing easy against the nation's 10th-ranked defense, which only allows 285.3 yards per game.
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The Wolverines are giving up 143.0 yards per game on the ground this season. They held Nebraska to just 138 rushing yards last season. The Huskers could really be in a world of hurt if Rex Burkhead isn't able to go. He is doubtful following last week's knee injury.
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While I expect Nebraska to be more competitive at home than it was last season in the Big House, I ultimately have it coming up short to what I believe to be a more complete football team on both sides of the ball.
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Teams coached by Brady Hoke are 15-4 ATS all-time when matched up against good rushing teams that average 4.75 yards or more per carry. His teams have won in this situation by an average score of 29.4 to 25.1. Take Michigan.
Jeff AlexanderFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina -7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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By making UNC a 7.5-point favorite, odds makers are begging for the money to come in on NC State. We aren't about to fall into this bookmaker trap. As if last week's loss at Duke isn't enough of a motivator, the Tar Heels will also be fueled by 5 straight losses to NC State. This is a game UNC wants badly, and I fully expect it to get the job done on its home field where it is on a 6-0 ATS run. The Tar Heels are even 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Wolfpack are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Also, plays on any team (UNC) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games - are 84-35 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 18.8 points. It's also worth mentioning that this system is 18-4 ATS this season. Lay the points.
Dave PriceFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State PkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect Ohio State to meet its match Saturday. The Buckeyes are fortunate to be 8-0 as they've had three scares in their last four games against teams (Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue) that are 9-13 combined. None of these three currently have a winning record. Penn State, which is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games, continues to get better every week. It has dominated Northwestern and Iowa - teams that are a combined 10-5 - in its last two games. The Ohio State defense has left plenty to be desired from Coach Urban Meyer as it ranks 68th in the country with 395.5 yards allowed per game. It has especially been awful against the pass, ranking 109th in the nation with 271.8 yards allowed per game. That spells trouble for the Buckeyes because QB Matt McGloin has got it going. The senior has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,788 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has thrown for over 280 yards and completed over 68 percent of his passes in each of his last two games with four touchdowns and no picks. Penn State defeated the Buckeyes 20-14 in Columbus last season, and I believe it still has the upper hand.
Tony StoffoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa vs. Northwestern
Play: IowaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawkeyes got crushed by Penn State last week at home and now have to hit the road and play Northwestern. And the Public is all on the Wildcats with 75% of all straight bets, and a whopping 84% of all parlays and teasers. Yet the odds makers have lowered the opening number meaning the sharps are coming in on Iowa in this spot. A perfect scenario if your looking for what a Reverse Action money play looks like.
Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin -6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though Michigan State covered last week as a 8-point dog at Michigan, I can't see them covering the spread on the road against a Wisconsin team that is playing it's best football of the season.
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The Spartans ended up losing to Michigan 10-12 on a last second field goal, giving them two heartbreaking losses in a row. They lost at home to Iowa the previous week in overtime in a game they dominated up until the final minutes. This team invested so much energy into beating their instate rivals that I just can't see them coming out with the type of energy needed on either side of the ball to keep up with Wisconsin. Michigan State is just 15-30 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992.
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Wisconsin has scored 27 or more points in each of their last five games and have finally got the running game going. There's no question Michigan State has a top notch defense, but it's going to be hard for them to keep playing at a high level with the lack of confidence they have in their offense. It's also worth noting that the Spartans have allowed 100 or more yards in three of their four Big Ten games.
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Not only do I think the Badgers will be able to move the ball and put up points on the Spartans, but I'm extremely confident that the Wisconsin defense will be able to shutdown Michigan State's poor excuse of an offense. The Badgers have held five of their eight opponents to 14 points or less, including each of their last three.
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Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons and are 16-4 ATS in home games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992.
Chip ChirimbesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke vs. Florida State
Play: Florida StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seminoles over Blue Devils- Yeah, I know, the Seminoles lost their top running back this week and he's gone for the season it won't matter here. The Blue Devils are coming off an upset win over hated-rival North Carolina last week and became bowl eligible with that win, they are in a perfect spot for a letdown against a team they know in their hearts that can't beat. Duke's defense has allowed offensive season high for yards to three of their opponents. Seminoles will have their way from start to finish.
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Texas A&M vs. AuburnFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M comes into this matchup angry after committing 5 TOs last week in their loss to LSU. QB, Johnny Manziel has tossed 14 TDs on 1956 YP and added 10 more scores on the ground. The "O" ranks in the Top 20 in rushing, passing, total offense, and points. Overall, they outscore opponents by an average of 20.9 PPG. Their "D" is led by sack machine, DaMontre Moore. The stop unit allows 22.1 PPG. The teams' only losses have come to two Top 10 teams in Florida and LSU. They face an Auburn unit that is off to their worst start in 60 years. Injuries have hurt the Tigers this season. Last week, they lost their best receiver in TE, Philip Lutzenkircher. They have dropped 4 in a row SU and in 5 SEC games this season, they have posted 216 or more yards just once. Scoring just 15.7 PPG won't cut it against this A&M squad. Take the Aggies.
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor vs. Iowa State
Play: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week Iowa State was up 10-7 in the first quarter, but then got smoked by Oklahoma State, 31-10. Ok-State had 625 yards, including 210 rushing. That defense gets another tough test here against a Baylor offense that is incredible: 1st in the nation in passing (390.7), 45th in rushing (183), averaging 48 points per game. So why are they 3-3? The defense is awful allowing 44 ppg. They've lost 3 in a row to West Virginia (70-63), TCU (49-21) and at Texas (56-50). QB Nick Florence (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,226 yds) leads the attack along with WR Terrance Williams (1,013 yds, 21.6 ypc). Baylor had 607 yards in losing to Texas, allowed 525 (251 rushing). TCU had 509 yards (248 rushing). Last year: Baylor won 49-26 with 603 yards (391 rushing), while Iowa State 425 (181 rushing). Baylor is a perfect 6-0 over the total this season, so Play Iowa State/Baylor over the total.
Rob Vinciletti
Oregon State vs. Washington
Play: Oregon State
Oregon St fits a nice 15-4 system here tonight that plays on road favorites of less than 5 in conference play that are off a home favored win and cover and allowed 7 or less points, vs an opponent off a road dog straight up and ats loss. The Beavers have dominated the series of late covering the last 8 games, including 5 straight here in Washington. The Beavers have edges on both sides of the ball and have covered 10 of the last 13 in weeks 5-9. Washington is 1-11 ats with revenge vs an opponent off back to back wins and 2-10 ats at home when the posted total is 45.5 to 49. There is a 70% chance of rain for this game at the projected game time and that will help a gritty Oregon St more than Washington. Take Oregon St in this one.
Dave Cokin
USC at Arizona
Pick: Arizona
It has become fairly clear that while USC is obviously a very talented team, they were also overrated to some extent. A big part of the problem is the lack of depth. Arizona has made some solid strides this season, and they have a real shot at nailing the upset here. The Wildcats plus the points loom as a dangerous home underdog today.
Greg Daraban
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Pick: Michigan State
Michigan St 4-4 at 152 Wisconsin 6-2 TV ABC. Wisconsin won the Big 10 Championsip and then Lost in the Rose Bowl to Oregon. Badgers. RB Ball continues to tack on the yards. MSU has been in every game they lost last week to Michigan 12-10 on a late Field Goal. MSU looking for revenge after losing Big 10 Championship in Indianapolis The Spartans win at Camp Randall Take 151 Michigan St