Andy Iskoe
Arizona St. -6.5
Both teams have been nice surprises in the early season. UCLA started 3-0 with routs of Rice and Houston sandwiched around a 36-30 home win over suspect Nebraska before starting 2-2 in Pac 12 play. ASU is 3-1 in Pac 12 play after starting 2-1 with the loss on the road at Missouri. UCLA and ASU have 3 common foes - Cal, Colorado and Utah. Both teams routed Colorado and defeated Utah (ASU's win was much more impressive) but UCLA lost at Cal 43-17 (outgained 480-381) whereas ASU won 27-17, also on the road, and outgained Cal 409-285. UCLA won last season, 29-28, as 8 ½ point home dogs. ASU, favored by 13, won here 2 seasons ago 55-34. Ex coach Erickson was a great recruiter but was questionable on the sidelines. His ASU teams were 31-31 in his 5 seasons, but just 21-28 the last 4. This is Homecoming for ASU and the Sun Devils are eager to atone for their last game, the nationally televised 43-21 home loss to powerful Oregon in which they took an early 7-0 before allowing 43 straight points to trail 43-7 with 12 minutes left - in the first half!. UCLA has its Homecoming game next week against Arizona. Arizona State has the better overall defense by 101 ypg and leads the nation in pass defense, allowing just 130 ypg (and they allow just 3.9 yards/rush; UCLA allows 4.3 ypr).
RICH SPORTS
UCF - 1.5
Play Central Florida minus the points versus Marshall. UCF comes into tonight’s game with a 5 – 2 record with their losses to Ohio State and Missouri. 4 of UCF’s 5 wins have been by double digits and they have a point differential of + 15 on the road this year. Marshall is 3 – 4 and has lost to Ohio and Tulsa at home this year. Central Florida is 5 -0 both straight up and ATS against the Herd.
Harry Bondi
PURDUE (-3) over Minnesota
Two weeks ago in this space we used Wisconsin (-1) over Purdue in a 38-14 victory for another FREE PICK winner, but this week we jump on the Boilermakers. After going through a three-game ringer against the Big 10 iron (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State) the public is way down on Purdue. But this is a classic step-down game for a team that still has plenty of talent and bowl game hopes alive. Not only is Minnesota down to starting a freshman, third-stringer, Philip Nelson, at QB, but the offensive line is also banged up and will consist today of two redshirt sophomores, two redshirt freshmen and one redshirt junior. One of Purdue’s strengths is its defensive front so look for future NFL draft picks Kawann Short and Bruce Gaston to control the line of scrimmage. Purdue has taken care of business against inferior opponents all season and today it takes out its frustrations on the Gophers to snap the three-game slide.
Scott Delaney
Still on a solid free-pick run, as I've won six of seven comps and 24 of 34. Let's look ahead to Saturday, as I like the Syracuse Orane laying the chalk to South Florida.
With six weeks left in the season, the Big East as we know it for the final time with these current members has seemingly turned into a three-horse race. Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati have commandeered the league with a combined 19-1 record, while none of the other five teams has a winning record.
Thus, I was interested in trying to figure out which one of the teams in the bottom half could possibly make a run to respectability and position itself as a bowl-eligible squad. Enter Syracuse, a team that has played a tough nonconference schedule, including losses to Northwestern, Southern Cal and Minnesota. I did a double-take when looking at the number the Orange are laying in Miami, but maybe that's what the oddsmakers wanted me to do - think twice. Could the Bulls be a trap?
It's possible, since South Florida has lost 11 of its last 12 Big East games, and five straight overall. Sitting in dead last, the Bulls are 2-5 overall with a 0-3 mark; The Orange, meanwhile, are 3-4 overall with a 2-1 mark in the conference. Syracuse still has games left at Cincinnati on Nov. 3 and at home against Louisville the following week, so it can't afford to let down here, or let up with its competitiveness.
And in case no one else is paying attention, the 'Cuse has rised to the occasion since losing its first two games of the season, to Northwestern and Southern California, and peaked last week against U Conn with a balanced attack. Jerome Smith rushed for a career-high 133 yards to lead a rushing attack that netted 251, as the Orange crushed the Huskies, 40-10. Quarterback Ryan Nassib was 14 of 20 passing for 251 yards to pace an offense that netted 502 yards.
That was against a UConn defense that came into the game ranked sixth in total defense, allowing 261 yards per game, and 13th against the run (99.4 ypg.).
Now the Orange have a chance to make a statement and stay in the upper echelon of the division, before setting their sights on two of the three leaders. Lay the road chalk here, as Syracuse gets it done.
4♦ SYRACUSE
Chuck O'Brien
My overall free pick run is now at 123-89-3, and I'm looking at a Saturday underdog that could push through for an outright win in its Big 12 clash. I love the Baylor Bears against the Iowa State Cyclones, and as much as I do think these grizzlies can win outright, I'm going to take the points and ride it out against the spread.
I've always been a big fan of coach Art Briles' offense, and I just think the Bears are in the right spot at the right time for a huge road win that would be their first conference win of the season. And realistically, as much as this is about Baylor's offense, I have to admit, this is just as much about going against Iowa State's dismal offense that has struggled without a solidified quarterback to run the unit.
Since a 3-0 start to the season, the Cyclones (4-3, 1-3 Big 12) have lost three of their last four games thanks in large part because of the conference's worst passing attack. This past week coach Paul Rhoads has gone as far as saying the starting job is up for grabs, between Steele Jantz, Jared Barnett and untested freshman Sam Richardson.
Yes, it's gotten that bad.
Iowa State ranks 88th nationally in passing yards, 98th in passer rating and dead-last in the Big 12 with just 169.2 passing yards in league games.
Now you bring in a team like Baylor, which is led by senior quarterback Nick Florence, who is stepped in nicely for last year's Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, and who has been named one of 15 finalists for the William V. Campbell Trophy. And in six career road starts, Florence has posted four of the top seven yardage totals in road games in program history. In all three road games this season, Florence has etched his name in the record books with stellar road passing numbers, throwing for a school record 581 yards (No. 1) and five touchdowns at West Virginia, while his 352-yard performance at Texas and 351 yards at UL Monroe rank sixth and seventh respectively.
And while the 'Clones can't even generate or ignite their passing game, the Bears' powerful passing attack is sparked by a vertical game that is highlighted by plenty of deep balls. To wit: 21 touchdown passes in six games have averaged 36.4 yards (including six of 50 yards or longer).
The Bears have simply too much offense, no matter how good Iowa State's defense might appear to be. Baylor needs this win, and will take advantage of Iowa State's struggles in moving the football. Take the road pup.
2♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie comes in the Pac 12, as I side with the Arizona Wildcats in the underdog role versus the USC Trojans.
USC notched a very rare cover last week when they whipped up on a very bad Colorado team by a 50-6 count. That pointspread cover puts the Trojans at just 2-5 against the spread for the season - all in the favored role - and just 6-12 overall against the line as the road favorite since the 2009 season.
Arizona snapped a three game skid under first-year coach Rich Rodriguez last week with a 52-17 rout of Washington. The Wildcats have covered two of their first three this season in the underdog role, and they sport a money-making 6-1 spread ledger the past seven times they have faced the Men of Troy.
It has been since 2009 since the Wildcats were able to win outright against the Trojans, and I am not sure they are going to turn that trick again today, but with the points at home in Tucson they will definitely be close.
'Zona the call.
3♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
On to my fifth-straight FREE winner, as I take a look at a Saturday underdog that could very well win outright. Last Saturday I gave you two underdogs - Northwestern and Duke - and one won outright, the other losing by a point. Back in the Big 10 and I have to tell you, the Minnesota Golden Gophers look awfully good against the incoming Purdue Boilermakers.
The Boilers are still searching for their first Big Ten win just three months after the players were talking a lot of smack about returning to the national spotlight. With traditional powerhouses Ohio State and Penn State both declared ineligible for the postseason - including December's Big Ten title game - Purdue's schedule was favorable and hopes were high. Now there is cause for concern on a team that might not even make a bowl game.
Meanwhile, with the Gophers (4-3, 0-3), we have a scrappy team that has played competitive throughout the season and looks as if it could make a run at any time with the right victory. A momentum-filled win. This could be the week.
I know why the oddsmakers have made the Boilers a road favorite, because Minnesota is down to its third starting quarterback this season, but that doesn't faze me with this team. There is a sense of resiliency when it comes to the Gophers, and when it comes to injured quarterbacks, this is nothing new. Besides, freshamn Philip Nelson is the prize recruit who is poised to take over this offense next season.
Regular starter MarQueis Gray sprained his left knee and ankle in the Sept. 15 game against Western Michigan. Backup Max Shortell hurt his neck on Oct. 13 during the loss to Northwestern, and then Gray re-aggravated his ankle injury.
Enter Nelson.
He did throw two interceptions at Wisconsin on Saturday, but he also finished 13 for 24 for 149 yards with two touchdowns passing, plus 67 yards on 16 rushes. And after taking on the Badgers' rugged defense in Madison, I actually think this will be the kid's coming-out party, in front of plenty of hometown fans, who will be down from Mankato to root him on.
Let's take a shot here, as the Gophers couldn't ask for a better situation against a better team to gain some momentum and inch closer to becoming bowl eligible. And listen, in the event this comes down to the end, let's not take a chance at pushing this game, buy the half point up here and take Minnesota +3-1/2 points.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Boise State at WYOMING (+16')
For my second free winner on Saturday, I'm taking another underdog, and keeping it close to home in the Mountain West Conference. I can't tell you why I don't like this line involving No. 21 Boise State, but this just doesn't strike me as the type of line that's going to be a cover. Maybe I'm being too suspicious, but I think the Wyoming Cowboys are going to cover the number.
At this point, the Cowboys (1-6 overall, 0-3 in MW) are looking for anything positive in a season that has gone sour, punctuated by the one-week suspension of head coach Dave Christensen for a profanity-laden outburst against Air Force coach Troy Calhoun. The confrontation occurred two weeks ago but Wyoming didn't suspend and fine Christensen until this week. Sometimes it takes situations like this to fire a team up, so even though he will not be on the sideline against Boise State, I'm looking for his troops to step up in his absence.
At home, and needing to take over to lead the Pokes, quarterback Brett Smith is averaging 301.8 yards per game total offense. I know he's missed two games and part of another because of concussions, but if there's one game his team needs him - it's this game here. I'm looking for a big connection between him and sophomore receiver Matt Miller, who is three receptions shy of 100 for his career.
As I continued to research this game, I found more and more about Boise State. Endless information about its defense, and a slew of betting trends to support the Broncos. But the question I couldn't answer was: why is this line so low? This looks too good to be true, to be laying this little of a number.
Wyoming is looking for its first home win of the season, after losing its first three home games by one (27-28 to Air Force), two (22-24 to Cal Poly) and three (31-34 to Toledo). Also, the Cowboys have had five of their first seven games decided by a touchdown or less and have won only one of these tight games, a 3-point overtime win at Idaho. Why should anything change now?
But speaking of betting trends, I did see that Wyoming is on winning runs of 4-1 in October and 8-3 in Mountain West play, while the Broncos are mired in ATS slides of 2-6 against losing teams and 1-8 in conference play.
Take the points boys.
1♦ WYOMING
Matt Rivers
Your Saturday free play will be to back the underdog Miami-Ohio Redhawks plus the points at home against undefeated Ohio U.
The Bobcats are in the Top-25 in the land, but let's look at their last pair of wins shall we? The Bobcats only beat Akron by 6 and Buffalo by 7. Akron & Buffalo have 2 wins between them, both against Morgan State!
Ohio University also struggled to get by winless Massachusetts, 37-34. Miami-Ohio on the other hand held UMass to just 16 points.
The Redhawks are back home after playing three in a row on the road. True, they have lost their last pair of games, but back at home with a shot at taking an undefeated team down - a conference rival at that - the Redhawks will be be ready to compete.
Live home dog today.
If Ohio is able to keep their perfect season in tact it won't come easy today in Oxford. Grab the points.
4♦ MIAMI-OHIO
SPORTS WAGERS
GEORGIA +6½ +102 over Florida
The Gators come in 6-0 with a résumé that includes last week’s blowout win over South Carolina and road wins at Tennessee and Texas A&M. That has the Gators stock very high but we think the dividend lies with the #10 ranked Bulldogs at the World’s Biggest Cocktail Party.
On the surface, the Gators have piled up four impressive SEC wins. In reality, no team in the conference save Vanderbilt has shown up to play Florida with anything resembling an all out effort. Spotting a touchdown on a neutral field is a big step up from the numbers of previous weeks (Florida was favored by 3½ points at home versus South Carolina last week). We're just not sold on the Gators and we still see a lot of what's fueling this team as unsustainable. The Gators require more offensively to keep that zero in the loss column. The rushing numbers have been in steady decline and QB Jeff Driskel doesn’t scare anyone with his passing game.
The Bulldogs haven't exactly been impressive this year but circumstances, mainly losses by others in their conference, have allowed for Georgia to still have a shot at the SEC. We are simply not interested in laying points with a Florida team that has had every bounce go its way this year and one that still requires its opponent to screw up in order to score. Georgia clearly had its collective minds on this one last week when they barely slipped by Kentucky. Upset alert is on.
Notre Dame +12½ -105 over OKLAHOMA
Buy low, sell high, that’s a philosophy we successfully use often and it certainly applies here to the Sooners. Oklahoma has clobbered its last three opponents by scores of 41-20, 63-21 over #15 Texas and last week’s 52-7 win over Kansas. That’s 156 points in three weeks. That sticks in the public’s mind and as a result, Oklahoma is overpriced here. The last time they faced a top-ranked defense in K-State they scored 19 points at home and lost 24-19. Folks conveniently forget that one but we have not.
Notre Dame is outside the top 70 in scoring and total offense but the slate of defenses the Irish have faced masks their true offensive prowess. The Irish are not only undefeated but they held Michigan to six points, Stanford to 13 and Miami (FLA) to 3. They’re allowing an average of 9 points a game. We don't expect Notre Dame to suddenly light up the scoreboard on the road against a quality defense like Oklahoma's but this unit can do enough to keep the Irish in the game.
Laying 12½ points with QB Landry Jones against a top defense cannot be recommended. Jones typically gets frustrated when facing stellar defences and that should work to the underdog’s advantage here. The Irish have a shot at pulling the upset as long as they are mindful of Oklahoma's superior special teams. We’re confident that they’ll be ready.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Texas Tech +7.5 over KANSAS STATE: (Added) This Red Raiders squad has been suprisingly good this year, especially on the defensive side. Texas Tech comes in allowing 282 ypg, which is 8th in the country. Their run defense is also pretty solid, allowing just 111 ypg (21st) and just 3.3 ypc. That run defense is key because KSU is primarily a running team with 23 more running attempts per game than passing attempts. KSU needs that running game to open up the passing lanes but if it's held in check then they will have a hard time moving the ball through the air vs a Tech defense that allows 170.6 ypg passing at just 5.3 yards per attempt, which is 8th in the nation. Over the Years the Texas Tech offense has been one of the best in the nation and this year is no different. They average 516 ypg and check in at number 4 in passing with 361 ypg and KSU can be thrown on as they have allowed 226 ypg through the air. Both teams come in averaging 42.9 ppg on the year, but I feel it will be the Texas Tech defense that will come up with enough big plays to keep this one under a TD.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Mississippi State +23 over ALABAMA: Well I will try and step in front of the Alabama train once again. Last week I went against Alabama cause I felt that Tyler Bray and that Tennessee offense would put enough points on the board to keep it close. This week I will go against them cause I feel that the Mississippi State defense will be enough to not let this game get out of hand. The State defense comes in allowing just 327 ypg on 4.9 yards per play. They have a solid run defense that allows just 139 ypg and 4.1 ypc on the year. On offense the Bulldogs have a good running game that churns out 181 ypg at 4.9 ypc. I know they will be facing the best run defense in the nation, but they will do enough in the run game to open up their passing game that averages 235.9 ypg. Both teams are good at defending the pass as the Bulldogs allow just 5.7 ypa, while the Tide allows just 5.1 ypa, so this game will be more about running and defense, with both teams taking the occasional shots down field. In what should be a conservative ball control game I will go with the Bulldogs, whose defense and offense will come up with just enough plays to keep this game right around 2 TD's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play On any regular season CFB Dog from game 6 on out if they are off a win of 7 or more and are playing an opponent off an ATS win of 7 or more. Teams in this spot are 24-3-2 since 1980.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma/ Notre Dame Under 48.5: While I feel my Irish are in for a long day, I just cannot pick against them, so we will look to take the Under in this game. The Irish really don’t have a lot of offense and they will be up against an Oklahoma defense that has been looking very good of late. Oklahoma comes in allowing just 313 ypg and 16 ppg in their last 3 games. A Big part ofd the Irish offense is their running game and they will need to use it to shorten the game and keep the Sooners high powered offense off the field, but the Sooners have allowed just 116 ypg on the ground at a mere 3.1 ypc, Overall the Sooners allow just 4.4 yards per play, which is 15th in the country. Now the Irish defense comes in as one of the best in the nation, allowing 280.7 ypg and just 9.4 ypg on the year. The do allow just 170 ypg through the air, but haven’t faced a passing attack like they will today. Still I feel that Brian Kelly will come up with a plan to at least SLOW the Sooners offense down enough to keep them for putting up a ton of points. The Irish also don’t allow too many big plays as they have allowed just 4.3 yards per play, which is 9th in the country. This will be a game where the offenses will have to slowly move down the field. The Irish don’t have enough offense to put many points on the board vs this tough Sooner defense, while their own defense should hold Oklahoma to 28 points or less. 40 points at most here.
Tennessee/ South Carolina Over 55: Boy is this Tennessee defense bad as they come in having allowed 444.5 ypg and 33.3 ppg overall, while in their last 3 they have allowed 516.3 ypg and 45.3 ppg. This sorry defense will now take on a South Carolina offense that was shut down last week vs Florida, but that has been very good at home this year. At home this year South Carolina has put up 454 ypg and 40.8 ppg overall, while their passing game has been special at with 283.8 yards per game, while also getting 11.3 yards per attempt. When up against FBS foes this year the Vols have allowed 271 ypg through the air (101st) at 8 yards per attempt (94th), so you can expect this South Carolina offense to have a big day in this one. The Vols offense had a rough one last week vs Alabama, but make no mistake this is a good offense. This year they have put up 35 points on a tough NC State defense, 44 on a Georgia defense and 31 points on a Mississippi State defense that is 25th in total defense (338 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (15.3 ppg) vs FBS foes this year. South Carolina does have a very tough defense, but I expect them to give up enough big plays so that Tennessee will get their fair share of points. This game will be a far cry from last years game that put up just 17 total points, as we see 60+ in this one.
BYU/ Georgia Tech Under 51: Georgia Tech has fired DC Al Groh and they went out and had a big game vs Boston College allowing just 17 points and 296 yards and now they take on a BYU offense that has struggled this year and has put up 14 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. The Tech offense is nearly unstoppable, but this may be the toughest defense they will face this year. The Cougars have allowed just 276 ypg on the year, including just 93.1 ypg and 2.9 ypc on the ground. BYU has had inconsistent QB play and they will look to run the ball allot in this one and they should have some success vs a tech defense that allows 146 ypg on 4.3 ypc. BYU will also need to run the ball to keep that high powered Tech offense off the field. Both teams will run the ball allot and with both defenses playing so well it will be hard for this game to put more than 45 points on the board.
Florida -7 over Georgia: This game will be played in some high winds and I feel that will really help the Gators, who are primarily a running team. Florida runs the ball 24 more times per game than they throw it and they average 212 ypg on the ground at 4.7 yards per pop. The Gators really like to use that ground game to wear teams down and that game plane has worked to perfection as they have outscored teams by a 17.3 to 4 ppg in the second half of games this year. The Strength of this Georgia team was to be their defense, but that hasn't worked out as they have allowed 367.4 ypg and 24.1 ppg overall. Georgia does have trouble stopping the run as they have allowed 167.9 ypg and 4 ypc on the ground this year. Offensively the Georgia offense has been very good, but they did have big problems in the game vs South Carolina's defense (7 points) and this Florida defense is a bit better than the Gamecocks, as Florida ranks 7th in total defense (282 ypg) and 4th in scoring defense (12.1 ppg) and they get better as the game goes on allowing just 4 ppg in the second half this year. This Florida defense is special and Georgia can be stopped offense as the Gamecocks showed. Look for Florida to win this one by 10+ points. KEY TREND--- In the last 30 meetings the SU winner is 26-3-1 ATS in this series.
John Ryan
Notre Dame at Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma
The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 13 or more points. Notre Dame is off to a great season, but did you know they have somehow managed to get a schedule that shows them playing only one true road game. It is has been a long time since ND has had to travel to play in Norman Oklahoma and it is one of the most passionate fan bases in the nation. Oklahoma has not hosted ND since 1966. Much has been made about the outstanding defensive play of the Irish, but the Sooner team is by far the most physcial and athletic team they have faced to date. Oklahoma has called rushing plays 28 times in goal-to-goal situations and have scored on 15 of those plays. That ranks third best in the nation and is just one example of why I see the Sooner offensive line dominating this game from beginning to end. I realize that ND has successfully defended 13 rushing palys in goal-to-goal situations without allowing a TD, which ranks best in the nation. Here again, Oklahoma has a ton of offensive weapons to go to and run dozens of plays out of the different formations that will not have showed up on game films. I will mention one significant factor that will be a major part of the Sooner blowout win. They have already been excellent in run defense, but not get the return of DT Stacy McGee, who is a monster athlete in the interior of the defensive line. Notre Dame will have a very difficult time running the ball and they become a highly inconsistent offense when made a one-dimensional passing unit. The more trouble ND has in running the ball, the greater the chances Oklahoma blows them off the field. Look at what they did to Texas in the Red River Rivalry and the possibility exists that it will happen again. Take the Sooners.
Ray Monohan
Oregon St vs. Washington
Play: Washington
The Washington Huskies have had no luck this year when it comes to their football team. This could be Washington’s last chance this season to earn a quality win. They come in having lost 3 straight, and were embarrassed last week, dropping a 52-17 decision to Arizona. OSU comes in red hot the winners of 6 in a row. ON the offensive side of the ball Keith Price needs to get the ball to Kasen Williams and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Those are the 2 biggest playmakers on this team and need to be given a chance to make an impact for the Huskies. Bishop Sankey the only healthy RB on the roster will need to get his touches as well. OSU QB Sean Mannion has missed a couple game with an injury and is returning this weekend. OSU is going to need him because at home the Husky defense does put up much better stats. Mannion will be targeting his big 3 as well. Senior WR Markus Wheaton, sophomore WR Brandin Cooks and freshman RB Storm Woods. I'm expecting a heckuva ballgame tonight in Seattle. I'm not sure Washington can get the win outright but this is a critical game in the Steve Sarkisian era, and the Dawgs will rise to the occasion. Washington won the last game at Seattle 35-34 in two overtimes. The Dawgs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Beavers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. 5* Free Pick on the Huskies + 3.5
Bruce Marshall
Brigham Young vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: Georgia Tech
Acknowledge BYU's six straight covers in road dog role, but a series of gut-wrenching defeats has left the Provo support base more interested in alum Mitt Romney's political prospects. And Coug "D" now springing leaks (Notre Dame 270 YR last week). ACC sources report Jackets benefiting greatly from recent dismissal of past sell-by date d.c. Al Groh. More good news in Atlanta is that QB Tevin Washington appears healthy and ready to go to trigger the Yellow Jacket option. Let's take a lead with Paul Johnson's reinvigorated Georgia Tech at this very fair price. Play Georgia Tech