Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 29

NHL

New Jersey at Dallas
The Devils look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 3-9 in its last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. New Jersey is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+110)

Game 51-52: Ottawa at NY Rangers (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.158; NY Rangers 10.799
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+135); Under

Game 53-54: Florida at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.022; Buffalo 12.498
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-185); Over

Game 55-56: Pittsburgh at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.979; Toronto 11.331
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120): Over

Game 57-58: Boston at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.047; Montreal 11.336
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+105); Under

Game 59-60: San Jose at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.228; NY Islanders 10.490
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Under

Game 61-62: Carolina at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.457; Philadelphia 11.174
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 63-64: Winnipeg at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.655; Tampa Bay 11.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Over

Game 65-66: Anaheim at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.198; Nashville 11.159
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-105); Under

Game 67-68: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.872; Minnesota 11.683
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 69-70: New Jersey at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.460; Dallas 11.427
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+110); Under

Game 71-72: Columbus at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.855; Chicago 12.370
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-220); Over

Game 73-74: Los Angeles at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.004; Phoenix 11.831
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under

Game 75-76: Washington at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.866; Vancouver 11.987
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-115); Over

Marc Lawrence

NC State at Florida St
Prediction: NC State

The Seminoles must have really liked their 41-16 win over Duke two weeks ago. So much so, that they duplicated it to the tee last week against Maryland. So just when it appears safe to go to war with Chief Osceola and company, tour database reminds us that Florida Sate is a putrid 1-17 ATS at home in games after scoring 35 or more points when facing a .400 or greater opponent. Not only does back-to-back SU wins make the 4-3 Wolfpack a ?credible? .400 or greater foe, but it also has them thinking about going bowling (though it will take three more FBS wins since their first two victories came against FCS squads). Series history certainly has us believing that the visitors won?t ?Pack? it in as NC State has covered the last six in the series (3 SU wins) and the last five at Doak Campbell Stadium. Add to that the fact the HC Tom O?Brien does his best work versus a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins (17-3 ATS) and you can see why we feel that the Sems will take a big step backward today at noon against a hungry foe playing its best ball of the season. Grab the inflated points. We recommend a 1-unit play on NC State.

Hollywood Sports

Nevada at New Mexico St.
Prediction: Nevada

Lay the points with a Nevada team (4-3) that has averaged 46.7 PPG over their last three games which has coincided with the emergence of Cody Fajardo as the first string quarterback. Fajardo completed 19 of 27 passes for 313 passing yards while leading a Wolf Pack offense to 581 yards of offense in their 45-38 win over Fresno State last week. Nevada is once again cranking up their pistol offense that is averaging 488.3 total YPG (14th in the FBS) and a whopping 248.8 rushing YPG (10th in the FBS). Fajardo's passing is complementing this effective ground game very well as he is completing 72.7% of his passes. Nevada should build off this momentum as they have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Wolf Pack have also covered 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by more than ten points. Nevada should have an easy time running the football against a New Mexico State team (3-4) that struggles to stop the run by allowing 185.7 rushing YPG (92nd the FBS). The Aggies are a MASH unit right now particularly at quarterback. The opening week starter, Andrew Manley, is out the season with an ACL injury. Both his backups, Matt Christian and Travaughn Colwell, are nursing injuries as well so head coach DeWayne Walker does not know who will be under center on Saturday. New Mexico State does not enjoy much of a home field advantage either as they have failed to cover the spread in 17 of their last 22 home games. And the Aggies have not covered the spread in 6 straight home games as an underdog of more than ten points. Lay the points with Nevada.

Sam Martin

Navy at Notre Dame
Prediction: Navy

We'll take the generous points with Navy here, and we don't have to look far back to see how Notre Dame plays against a triple-option offense. The Irish beat Air Force by 26 points back on October 8th, however a closer look at the stats show that game was much closer than the final score indicated. In fact, Notre Dame was out-gained by the Falcons in that game, and they have lost outright to this Navy team two years in a row. Not suggesting Navy will win this game outright, but the huge number is far too much to lay here. 5* Play on Navy.

Scott Spreitzer

Missouri at Texas A&M
Prediction: Missouri

The Tigers had their home win streak snapped last weekend when Oklahoma State's dominating offense went on full display, piling up 533 yards and 45 points. But the Tigers opened a double-digit underdog in this one, facing a team playing little defense. Asking A&M to win by a couple of TDs against an offense with firepower of their own is asking too much, in my opinion. Mizzou QB James Franklin suffered some growing pains last week, but I truly believe this kid has great potential, which very well could be on display against CFB's 120th ranked pass defense. The "Wrecking Crew" is getting gashed for big chunks of yardage on a weekly basis, not to mention, allowing 25.4 ppg. This is a bit surprising when you consider the defense has just about every starter back from last season's edition. When a team owns the experience and the talent, but struggles this much, it's coaching and schematics, more often than not. This means their problems on the "stop side" are not likely to be resolved anytime soon. And while I expect the A&M offense to score their share of points, I don't believe the defense will allow for much separation. Mizzou hammered A&M, 30-9 last season with Blaine Gabbert under center. He's playing on Sunday's this season, but I expect Franklin and the Tiger offense to stay close enough to hang the number. I'm taking the points with Mizzou on Saturday.

Andrew Tan

South Carolina at Tennessee
Play: South Carolina -3.5

Vols bench boss Derek Dooley announced on Monday that freshman quarterback Justin Worley will start this coming Saturday against South Carolina. Worley made his Tennessee debut this past Saturday, spelling starter Matt Simms in the fourth quarter of a 37-6 loss at Alabama. He did not attempt a pass. Worley hails from Rock Hill, South Carolina. He threw for 13,385 yards and 157 touchdowns in his Northwestern High School career.

The oddsmakers opened South Carolina as 5-point road favorites in the SEC contest but the line has come back to the home team with the Gamecocks offering a field goal and a hook in the Saturday night matchup.

South Carolina has tied a school record with five consecutive road wins, but has lost two straight in Knoxville since a 16-15 victory in 2005 - its lone win in 15 games there.

In four games since Sept. 24, the Gamecocks rank second nationally in total defense (206.8 yards) while surrendering only three touchdowns. Expect the defense to molest the young Tennessee signal caller.

The Vols are 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons - South Carolina figures to put points on the board with short-field possessions. And Tennessee has not scored more than 12 points in a conference contest since losing to Florida 33-23 on September 17th.

GoodFella

Oregon St. +5

FWIW, I have personally bet this game & this play might make my Premium Play Card later in the week. We cashed in on PURDUE last Saturday, as I had that play posted during the week & I think we have another "live dog" here. . Obviously we all know that Jordan Wynn is OUT for the rest of the year, and yes it's "blackout night" in Utah Saturday Night.....However, IMO the Beavers are FINALLY playing to "their potential" and this team UNDER Coach Riley have been very good this time of year. Beavs are HEALTHY now and Mannion has gained a ton of confidence & getting Agnew back (healthy now) as he ran for over 100 yds last week is so huge for this offense. I see two teams going in different directions (yes I am well aware that the Beavs "host Stanford" next week (NOISE).....for me, grabbing the +5 here is the smart play & I look for Oregon St to give the Utes all they want Saturday Night.

Jack Clayton

Stanford at USC
Pick: Stanford

The Cardinal (5-0 Pac-12) enters the heart of its schedule, starting last week with Washington (65-21 win) and now at USC. Stanford (7-0 SU, 6-0 ATS) offensive coordinator David Shaw was promoted to head coach, so the same offensive style remains. Star QB Andrew Luck (20 TDs, 3 INTs) leads an offense that is averaging 49 points, 218 yards rushing and 267 passing. They can play defense (12 ppg allowed), too, after giving up 17 ppg last year. Play Stanford!

Larry Ness

Illinois vs Penn State
Pick: Penn State

Penn State’s lone loss this year is 27-11 to Alabama and right now, that sure doesn’t look like a “bad loss.” The Nittany Lions are atop the Big Ten’s Leaders Division at 4-0 and with Wisconsin (2-1) playing at Ohio St, a Penn St win over suddenly slumping Illinois (two straight losses after a 6-0 start) could be HUGE. A Penn St win and a Wisconsin loss would put Penn St “in the driver’s seat” of the Leaders Division. Paterno started McGloin at QB last week and he looks like a way better option than Bolden plus RB Redd (869 YR / 5.3 YPC) has four straight 100-yard games, averaging 141.5 YPG (5.5 YPC). The Penn St offense has shown excellent balance the last two weeks (379 yards passing / 387 yards rushing) and with a defense which allows 13.1 PPG (5th) and 281.9 YPG (8th), PSU looks like the play to me. Illinois opened 6-0 in 2011 (rose to 16th in the AP poll) but does anyone really trust Ron Zook? I sure don’t. The Illini averaged 226.3 YPG on the ground in their 6-0 start but in back-to-back losses to Northwestern and Indiana, they've averaged just 118.0 YPG on the ground. Penn St will well-remember that Illinois won last year in Happy Valley, 33-13! A scheduling quirk has the Illini visiting State College again this year and that’s hardly good news for Illinois. Prior to last year’s win, the Illini had never been within double digits of the Lions in Sate College, going 0-6 SU. Not many expected the Lions to compete in this division with Ohio St and Wisconsin part of it. However, Penn St can move to 5-0 win a win here and with “a little help” from their friends in Columbus (Buckeyes host the Badgers), Penn St could really enjoy its off week next weekend, sitting at 5-0 while Ohio St and Wisconsin would both be at 2-2, pending their respective November 5th outcomes (likely 3-2 records since both are at home against Indiana and Purdue, respectively). I drifted a little there. Getting back to the point, lay the points with Penn State vs the “Zookers.”

Matt Fargo

Iowa St. @ Texas Tech
PICK: Iowa St. +15.5

Texas Tech came through with one of the greatest upsets in a long time last Saturday as it went into Oklahoma and defeated the Sooners as 29-point underdogs. It snapped Oklahoma's 39-game home winning streak and essentially took the Sooners out of National Championship contention. The Red Raiders are a very good team so there have been bigger upsets but it is rare to see a team lose outright at home as huge favorites. It is safe to say that Texas Tech is still celebrating.

Iowa St. is coming off another loss, its fourth straight to begin Big XII action. While the Cyclones seem to be digressing, this is a good spot to play them not only because of the Texas Tech letdown but because of the line value involved. We only have to look back to last year to see the Cyclones coming back from a 52-0 thumping against Oklahoma and going to Texas the next game and defeating the Longhorns. A win may seem farfetched but the situation could not be more perfect.

Jared Barnett was named the Cyclone starting quarterback this week, and his first task will be to turn around an Iowa St. offense that’s struggled in Big XII play. Normally when someone sees a quarterback change, it is for the bad and in this case while it was going bad, this is a good thing for the team. This will provide a spark if nothing else as the Cyclones have been stuck in neutral. Iowa St. is last in the Big XII in total offense, averaging 23.1 ppg but Barnett doesn’t think much is needed to turn the Cyclones around.

"Once we get to clicking in all aspects, then this offense will really explode," Barnett said. While it may not "explode" right away, chances are Iowa St. will be better here as Texas Tech is 96th in the nation in total defense and 91st in scoring defense. The Red Raiders have allowed at least 34 points in five straight games after allowing a total of 23 points against FCS Texas St. and New Mexico, arguably the worst team in the FBS. The three wins over this span have been by less than the spread for this game.

Iowa St. is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 450 total yards or more in three straight games so the bounceback factor is definitely in play here for the Cyclones. Iowa St. also falls into a great situation based on the Red Raiders result from last weekend. We play against any team that is coming off an road win scoring 38 or more points, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for a closer than expected game on Saturday. 3* Iowa St. Cyclones

Sean Murphy

Boston College @ Maryland
PICK: Boston College -7.5

Maybe it's just me, but laying points with a two-win Maryland squad doesn't seem like a wise move right now.

The Terps had high hopes entering the season, with a new head coach in Randy Edsall, and a young quarterback ready to come into his own in Danny O'Brien.

Edsall has done all he can to keep his team on track, but it's becoming more and more evident that a rebuild may be in order.

O'Brien hasn't panned out in his sophomore year, throwing only five touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Keep in mind, he threw 22 TDs and only eight INTs last season. Of course, it helped that he had a man among boys to work with in WR Torrey Smith a year ago.

The Terps left it all on the field two weeks ago, but ultimately fell short in a 56-45 defeat against Clemson. They came out flat last Saturday, and went on to get crushed 41-16 at Florida State.

Now Maryland returns home to host another struggling team in Boston College.

The Eagles are starving for a victory against an FBS opponent. Note that their only previous win came against FCS squad UMass. They can't be all that discouraged by their current three-game losing streak. Note that their last two defeats came on the road in two of the toughest locales in all of college football, Death Valley and Blacksburg.

Boston College's offense has been cringe-worthy this season, but this is a spot where I expect the Eagles to do some good things. Note that Maryland hasn't exactly been a defensive stalwart, allowing 4.7 yards per rush and 7.9 yards per pass play.

Defensively, BC hasn't been all that bad. The Eagles have given up at least 30 points on only three occasions, and all three of those games came against quality opposition in UCF, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. On the whole, they're allowing 4.3 ypr and 7.5 ypp.

Note that Maryland hasn't been well balanced on offense, averaging 4.6 ypr but only 5.9 ypp.

This series has been extremely close in recent years. The two teams have split their last four meetings, with each of those four games being decided by seven points or less. We haven't seen a discrepancy of more than 77 total yards between the two combatants in any of those four contests.

Both teams are desperate for a win, and I expect the game to play out accordingly on the field. No surprise if we see another close one between the Eagles and Terps on Saturday. Take Boston College.

Tradeline Sports

Wisconsin at Ohio State
Play: Ohio State +7

Wisconsin, who coming into last week’s battle against Michigan State, had been good against the spread (4-1 now 4-2), could be susceptible to a letdown in its game at Ohio State this weekend. With a National Championship game more than likely a wet-dream the Badgers could struggle this Saturday night.

Last season a better Wisconsin squad was steamrolling through its first four games before losing at Michigan State. In its next game, Wisconsin was 22-point chalk against a very undermanned Minnesota team. The Badgers only led 14-9 at half, and though they ultimately won 41-23, they didn’t cover. Add to that the fact their opponent this week is Ohio State (a team that was No. 1 in the country until it was upset by Wisconsin last season) has some extra motivation in the form of revenge. The Buckeyes have progressed offensively since putting up 6 points versus Miami in mid-September. Their seven point effort against Michigan State could have been better with a couple fortunate bounces of the ball, too.

Take the home town Buckeye’s plus the touchdown in a game Wisconsin is likely battling two foes, their own demons and a motivated OSU team.

James Patrick Sports

California vs. UCLA

This is a must-win for the Bruins, not just to save their head coach's job, but also to earn back a little respect in the league. Cal just won their first Pac-12 game of the season last week. They don't deserve to be laying this number away from home. Cal is (0-3) ATS on the road this season, while the home team has won nine of the last (10) meetings in this series. The underdog is also (10-4-1) ATS in the last (15) meetings. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday complimentary selection in Pac Twelve Football is on UCLA Bruins.

Tom Stryker

Georgia vs. Florida
Play: Florida

Off an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS run versus the likes of Alabama, LSU and Auburn, things won’t get any easier for Florida on Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville. The Gators must tackle a Georgia team that is filled with confidence right now off five consecutive wins over Coastal Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Thankfully, history will be on UF’s side on Saturday afternoon. Since 1990, Florida has assembled a profitable 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS record in this SEC series against Georgia. The Gators have been outstanding in the regular season coming off a bye too. Since 1980, UF is a sizzling 41-16 SU and 36-20 ATS coming off a week of rest including a powerful 32-8 SU and 27-13 ATS in this set matched up against a conference opponent. With those two parameters applied and the Gators tackling a foe that is not off a blowout win of 10 points or more, this team trend zips to a strong 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS.

On offense, Florida will welcome the return of starting quarterback John Brantley. Out with a high ankle sprain since October 1st, Brantley will bring plenty of emotion and potential to a Gators offense that was lost without him in losses to LSU and Auburn. Before getting injured against Alabama, Brantley had torched the Crimson Tide defense for 190 yards passing and a touchdown. With “Big John” behind center, Georgia won’t be able to stack the box defensively (like LSU and Auburn did) which means UF’s powerful ground game should get back on track.

Any way you look at it, this contest is going to make or break Florida’s season. A win would put the Gators back into the thick of things in the SEC East. A loss would knock UF out completely. Florida head coach Will Muschamp put his troops through a number of physical practices during last week’s bye. All of that hard work will pay off Saturday afternoon with a victory. Take Florida!