Joseph D'Amico
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Clemson -3
The 5th ranked Tigers are now striking fear in opponents because of their offense that is posting 40.6 PPG behind the leadership of QB Tajh Boyd (2379 YP, a 61.8% completion rate, and a 24/4 TD/INT ratio). He has an excellent receiving corps that makes it impossible for any secondary to cover them. RB Andre Ellington (745 YR and 7 TDs) balances out the potent offense. Boyd and his air attack will exploit the leaky Georgia Tech defense while Ellington runs up the middle for FDs at will. The Yellow Jackets started 6-0, only to be exposed their L2 games. They have failed to cover 3 straight, averaging a laughable 16.3 PPG in those last 3 games. QB Tevin Washington has been picked off 4 times over the L3 contests. To make matters worse, starting Center, Jay Finch was injured early in their last game and was unable to return. As of posting tonight, he is most likely out. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS their L6 games played at the Yellow Jackets, 7-0 ATS their L7 Conference games, and 6-0 ATS their L6 overall. The Yellow Jackets are 3-7 ATS their L10 games played as a home 'dog, 0-3-1 ATS their L4 Conference games, and 0-3-1 ATS their L4 games played overall. Take Clemson.
Dave Essler
Vanderbilt +9.5
I know the Hogs will be far more focused this week, but it's still the second straight road game for what I see as a "somewhat" over valued Arkansas team. You just can't go around laying double digits to too many teams on the road in ANY conference. Vandy doesn't have the pass rush that some do, but their defensive secondary is quite under rated. They WILL take some chances here, and at home, if they aren't getting blown out early, they could well win this game, which is my criteria for taking any underdog. Plus, at 4-3 Vandy is playing it's next to last home game, and all the road games they've got are quite likely losses, so this game means WAY MORE to the Commodores than the naked eye can see. Two wins to get Bowl Eligible, and this is one they need. If Zac Stacy is at full strength and Vanderbilt can run some clock (he averages 7.4 YPC) then this almost immediately becomes a last possession game. THAT is the whole key to this game, IMO.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
OKLAHOMA STATE -14 over Baylor: The Favorite is 11-1 the last 12 in the series, while the home team is 7-2 ATS the last 9. Last week Baylor was crushed by Texas A&M, as they allowed the Aggies 6 TD passes and 415 yards passing in the 55-28 loss. Now in comes the 2nd ranked passing offense of the Cowboys and they should have a field day with the Baylor defense. Oklahoma State averages 549 ypg on the year and 620 ypg at home, while the Bears have allowed 517 ypg on the road this year and they are 64th in the nation in pass defense ( 240 ypg) and 101st in points allowed (32.7 ppg), plus they are off a game in which they allowed 618 yards and in their last game here (last year) they allowed the Cowboys to put up 55 points and 725 yards of total offense. All those numbers are important, as we note that the Bears are 11-40 ATS when they allow 500+ yards, since 1992, while OSU is 11-2 ATS when they put 500+ yards of offense on the board the last two seasons, and the Cowboys are a solid 15-4 ATS when they score 28+ points in a game the last 2 years. Two thing i do expect in this game is that Oklahoma State WILL get 500+ yards and at least 28 points in this one. Baylor can score, that is true, but Oklahoma State will scpore a whole bunch more. Look for them to win this one by at least 20.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
TEXAS -28 over Knasas: The Longhorns are off BB losses to the Oklahoma's and what better way to get back on track than a game with the pathetic Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are just 1-7 ATS the last 8 in the series and they last 4 times they played in Texas they have been outscored by 38 pg and outgained by 320 ypg. OUCH. and now they bring in a team that may be worse than those 4 team. The Kansas offense has been solid, putting up 30.1 ppg, but it's the defense that has been horrendous. The Jayhawk defense is last in the country in points allowed (50.4 ppg) and last in yards allowed (551 ypg). I haven't seen a defense this bad in a long time and they are equally bad vs the pass (318.9 ypg, 119th) and the run (232 ypg, 119th). Now as bad as their overall numbers are, they are even worse on the road. The Jayhawks have had 2 road games this year and they're defense has been crushed to the tune of 684 ypg and 68 ppg, while being outscored by 37 ppg. That's right around the amount they have been outscored by Texas in their last 4 trips here. Im sure there are a few high teams that would like a crack at that defense. The Texas offense has not geen great as they rank 72nd overall and 52nd in scoring, but they should have great success vs a bad Jayhawk defense. In Kansas' last 3 Big 12 games they have been outscored by at least 30 points in each game and I see more of the same tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Conference home favorites of 21.5 to 31 that average 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play on offense vs a team that allows 6.2 ypp or higher on defense are 29-5 ATS since 1992.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arkansas -9 over VANDERBILT: The Commodores have had a good season this year and they are looking to win their 5th home game in the same season for the first time since 1974, but they are 0-3 vs winning teams this year and have been outscored by 19 ppg in those games. The Vandy defense has been very good this year ranking 23th in total defense (323 ypg) and 32nd in points allowed (21.6 ppg), but this will be clearly the best offense they have faced this year and in their last three games their defense has allowed 383 ypg and 29.3 ppg. The Razorback offense is 22nd in the nation, putting up 462 ypg and they are 9th in passing at 321 ypg, while putting up 37.7 ppg. The Arkansas defense has struggled at times but they have allowed just 21.3 ppg and 203 ypg passing on the year and they have outscored their oppoents by 16 ppg so far. Arkasnas is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a winning record, while Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS vs a team that averages 5.9 ypg or better and they have been oustcored by 26 ppg in those games. Arkansas has mhad to come fom behind in their last 3 games, but that won't happen here as they take control of the game right from the start. Arkansas by 17 here.
RUTGERS +6.5 over West Virginia: Rutgers has a rough game in their last time out, but they should bounce back today. The Knights aren't gonna win any games based on their offense, but this defense can certainly make up for it. Rutgers comes in with the 15th ranked defense (301 ypg) and they have allowed just 16 ppg (9th), plus they have allowed just 14 ppg in Big East play. The West Virginia offense is very good as they rank 13th overall and they are 5th in the nation in passing (374 ypg), but the problem eher is that Rutgers has a very good pass defense ranking 20th in that category, allowing just 184 ypg. West Virgina has also struggled vs good pass rushing teams and Rutgers is one of the best, grabbing 5.5 sacks per game, while West Va. is 0-2 this year when they allow 3+ sacks in a game. Let's also note that teams that allow 34 ppg or more vs a team that allows 16-21 ppg from game 7 on out are 12-35 ATS since 1992. This is a huge game in the Big East and this West Virginia defense was exposed last week vs a weak Syracuse offense. The Knights pressure defense will come up with enough big plays to keep this one close, if not win the game outright.
Iowa -14.5 over MINNESOTA: This Gophers team is a mess, as they come in at 1-6 overall, including 0-3 in the Big 10 and they have been outscored by a whopping 37.7 ppg in their Big 10 games. Las6t year they went into Iowa as 15 point dogs and walked away with a 27-24 outright win, so the revenge factor is definitely in play here. Minnesota is horrible on both sides of the ball as they rank 113 in total offense (294 ypg) and 110th in scoring (17.4 ppg), while on the defensive side they are 100th in total defense (429 ypg) and 115th in points allowed 35.9 ppg. Iowa had one bad game offensively, in which they scored just 3 points vs Penn State, but in the rest of their games this offense has averaged a healthy 39.5 ppg. Iowa has struggled some on defense this year, checking in at 79th overall (407 ypg) and 42nd in points allowed (23.3 ppg). They have really struggled vs the pass, but Minnesota has one of the worst pass ofenses in the Nation. The Hawkeyes want revenge for last years loss and they should get it in easy fashion vs a Minnesota team that is already thinking about next year.
Penn State/ Illinois Under 41: Thi Illini offense has taken a hiatus all of a sudden as they have put up just just 21 points in their last 2 games and it could be even tougher for them to score vs this Penn state defense that comes in ranked 8th overall (282 ypg) and 5th in points allowed (13.1 ppg). This is one tough defense that just doesn't give up much. As I stated the PSU defense is 8th in the natiomn, well the Illinois def3ense comes in ranked 10th in total defense, allowing just 289 ypg and they are 15th in points allowed (18.1 ppg). The Illini offense has struggled the last few weeks, but this PSU offense has struggled all year. State comes in at 76th in total offense (374 ypg) and 89th in points scored (23.1 ppg), plus they are 84th in passing at 206 ypg. This is not a big play offense, as they like to dink an dunk their way down field and that eats clock. Both offenses have been struggling and they will be going up against a couple of top 10 defenses so I wouldn't look for more than 35 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Clemson -3.5 over GEORGIA TECH. The Techster's offense has been figured out as they have been held to season low in yards in each of their last 5 games, and they come in gaining just 296 and 211 yards in their last 2 games. The Clemson defense has struggled at times this year, but they have more than enough offense to make up for it. The Tigers are 5-0 vs the ACC and have outscored those teams by 15.8 ppg. Georgia Tech is fading an will not hang with this strong Clemson team here.
Tennessee/ South Carolina Under 43: Neither team has been scoring much of late as the Vols come in averaging just 8.3 ppg in their last 3 games, while the Gamecocks have put up 21 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. S. Carolina allowed 79 points in their first 2 games, but have since allowed jusst 11 ppg in their last 5 games. Tennessee allowed 75 points in their last 2 games vs Alabama and LSU, but in their previous 5 games they allowed just 20.4 ppg. A lot of defense and little offense in this one.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse/ Louisville Under 44: The Orange had an offensove explosion last week but it won't happen vs this louisville defense as the Cards allow just 17.1 ppg and 302 ypg. Cardinal home games have averaged just 32.8 ppg while their 2 Big East games have averaged just 35.5 ppg. Louisville will dictate tempo in this game and that will mean a low scoring game.
Oklahoma State/ Baylor Over 79: The OU is 18-1, since 1992, when OSU is at home after gaining more than 6.25 ypp in their last game. This OSU offense is unstoppable andthe Baylor defense is bad. Last week they allowed Texas A&M to pile up 618 yards and 55 points and the OSU offense is much better. The Cowboy defense has not been great this year and we all know the Bears can score as well. This will be a shootout right from the start, but I still expect the Cowboys to win this one easily. I say 55-31.
Dave Price
1 Unit Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5
This is a tough spot for the Badgers. Not only will they be asked to bounce back from last week's punch in the gut, they'll be asked to do so in Columbus against an Ohio State team that will be looking to pay them back for last year's loss. The Buckeyes have gotten some key guys back and they've had a bye week to prepare for this game. Ohio State's athletes are every bit as gifted as Michigan State's, if not more so, especially on defense. The Buckeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. We'll take Ohio State as it takes Wisconsin right down to the wire.
Fairway Jay
Kansas at Texas
Play: Texas -28
Kansas is taking a pounding, and on the surface is seems there is little value at this point playing against the Jayhawks. But this week’s matchup against Texas in Austin should be another one-sided affair and one in which the Longhorns will dominate at the point of attack. Only one team in the nation has a worse rushing defense than Kansas, as the Jayhawks allow 232 rushing ypg and a nation-worst 6.2 yard per rush. They will now face an ornery Texas team off a bye in which they had extra time to digest their back-to-back beatings by Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The Longhorns run the ball for 176 ypg and allow just 105 ypg rushing. We can expect them to run wild on a weakened Kansas defense that was just shredded at home last week by rival Kansas State, 59-21. In that contest, Kansas was outrushed 261-76.
The line has been adjusted upward due to recent Kansas’ results and sieve defense that allows a nation-worst 550 ypg. Against FBS opponents this season, Kansas has allowed 59, 47, 70, 45, 66 and 42 points. The hiring of head coach Turner Gill is obviously not working out. This may not be a vintage Texas team, but even when Kansas was better, the Jayhawks were still outscored 176-34 in its last three trips to Austin.
No doubt Kansas has played a very tough schedule, and not only has their run defense been destroyed, but they also rank 119th in pass defense allowing nearly 320 passing ypg. The Longhorns rank among the nation’s leaders in pass efficiency defense and allow just 54% completions. Texas has inexperience at the quarterback position, and Kansas may stack the box more this week. But if Texas decides to stick its horns into Kansas and not let up, they too can win this contest by over four touchdowns.
Know too that teams that outrush their opponent by at least a 2-to-1 margin are 144-41 (78%) ATS this season, and I see the Longhorns completely controlling the ground game and the point of attack this week.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Tech -14
All the Red Raiders need to do avoid a letdown following their upset win over Oklahoma is remember the way last year's 52-38 upset loss to Iowa State felt. Even if Texas Tech comes out a little slow Saturday, it has more than enough fire power to cover this number against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Iowa State is tied for 115th out of 120 FBS teams with 35.9 points allowed per game, and it ranks 112th in total defense (456.1 yards per game). The Cyclone defense will be no match for a Texas Tech offense that ranks 5th in the nation with 539.3 yards per game and 9th with 43.4 points per game. Iowa State is now 0-7 in its last 7 conference games with this year's 0-4 start. It has played Texas, Baylor, Missouri and Texas A&M the last 4 weeks and endured losses of 23, 23, 35 and 16 points. It's also worth noting that the Cyclones are winless in 5 all-time trips to Lubbock. Iowa State is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games versus offenses that score 37 or more points per game. The Cyclones are losing in this situation by an average score of 47.8 to 17.8. We'll lay the points.
Tony Stoffo
Illinois vs. Penn State
Play: Under 39
Weather Alert Illinois at Penn State Even if this game wasn't going to be played on lousy weather conditions it would still be a play on the under. However with it being played in these conditions it makes for a double unit play on the Under in this spot. 70% chance of snow and rain with temperatures in the mid 30's and the Wind gusting to 20 MPH. Illinois is 15-4 Under after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games Penn ST is 7-0 Under after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Penn ST is 11-2 Under as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado State vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV +3
UNLV has played much better at home this season then on the road and fits a nice system that plays on rested homers off back to back road losses the last of which was by 10 or more if they have revenge. UNLV is 5-0 ats in the 1st of back to back home games and home teams in coach Houcks games are 16-2 ats. Colorado St has lost 13 of the last 15 road games. They are 0-8 ats in game 8, 0-4 ats in the first of back to back road games and 2-12 ats as favorites of 2 or more vs losing teams that have revenge. UNLV has covered 3 of the last 4 here in the series, while Colorado St is 1-7 ats before San Diego St. Take UNLV.
The Wiseguys
Virginia Tech at Duke
Play: Virginia Tech -15
Virginia Tech's depth on defense has somehow passed the conference test this season coming into the road tilt against Duke with a 3-1 league record. They are now on top of the Coastal Division by winning three straight with their most recent victory being a 16 point win over BC. Tech held the Eagles to 272 yards of total offense, its lowest total in four games, and a mere 91 on the ground. The Hokies rank 13th in the nation in total defense and square off against a Duke team that is not only struggling offensively, but completely decimated by injuries. Duke’s struggles and ailments will assist VT because they, too, will be without their leading tackler, Bruce Taylor (foot-out), the third Hokies defensive starter to be lost for the season. The positives heading into Saturday early kick in Carolina is that linebacker Alonzo Tweedy, All-American cornerback Jayron Hosley and defensive end James Gayle are probably to return to action.
The Hokies' 10 consecutive victories over the Blue Devils have come by an average of 23.1 points.
Duke is a miserable 102nd in the FBS at 264.0 yards allowed per game and VT signal caller Logan Thomas is in line to throw for more than 250 yards for his third straight game. He has six passing touchdowns and no interceptions the last three games while completing 66.7 percent of his passes.
While VT is going to have to be very good the rest of the way to reach a 10-win season, QB Thomas, RB David Wilson and receivers Danny Coale and Marcus Davis -- behind a dominating offensive line -- will be enough to score a big win over a Duke team that's so banged up they can barely practice.
VT is 13-4 ATS when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards per play and a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons winning in both situations by an average of 21 points.
Take the Hokies and lay the two touchdowns on Saturday.
David Chan
Washington Capitals @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Washington Capitals
I bet value where I see it and expect the Capitals to harpoon the Canucks.
Washington is 7-1; Vancouver is 4-5-1.
The Capitals will come into town in a foul mood off their first loss of the year, a mental lapse in a 2-1 setback in Edmonton on Thursday:
“For whatever reason we took penalties not only in our zone but also in the offensive zone,” Washington netminder Tomas Vokoun said. “Penalties are tough to kill in this league. We had a chance to get a point but they had a bit more puck luck than us.
“You can’t take that many penalties, no matter who you are playing. It cost us the game in the end.”
Washington is getting the job done with a dynamite defensive unit that gives up just 2.00 goals per game and which has given up the fewest even-strength goals in the Eastern Conference.
Vancouver is struggling right now, especially in net.
Cory Schneider lost 3-0 in St. Louis on Wednesday; Roberto Luongo got the hook the previous night in a 3-2 setback at Edmonton:
“We can be better in a lot of areas,” said coach Alain Vigneault. “We’re not generating the type of chances that I think this group is capable of generating.
“We’re playing under our level right now.”
This is a mis-match on so many levels; look for Washington to kick this struggling Canucks team while it's down; consider a wager on the Capitals!
Steve Merril
Wake Forest @ North Carolina
PICK: Wake Forest +7
With 17 returning starters, we felt that head coach Jim Grobe was ready to start turning things around at Wake Forest in 2011. And so far this season, he has not disappointed. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play, and there’s no reason not to back them on Saturday, especially since they are in a great spot at North Carolina. The Tar Heels where in a good situation and held a nice match-up edge in their game at Clemson last week, but North Carolina turned the ball over 6 times which led directly to their 21-point loss. Off such a bad performance, the Tar Heels will be playing with a hangover here which provides some tremendous value in taking a touchdown with the well-coached Demon Deacons.
Quarterback Tanner Price leads a Wake Forest passing game that is ranked 24th in the country; they are averaging 285 yards per game on a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt. He’ll be facing a North Carolina pass defense that ranks 101st in the nation and 11th in the ACC while giving up 263 yards per game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd took advantage of the weak North Carolina secondary last week as he threw for 367 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Tar Heels have been content all season in letting teams complete underneath routes and Wake Forest is the type of offense that can exploit that defensive weakness.
Last week’s game proved that in order for North Carolina’s offense to be effective, they need to run the ball well. They only had 102 rushing yards last week on 28 carries, and that put a lot of pressure on QB Bryn Renner who didn’t handle it well in throwing 3 interceptions. Wake Forest is only allowing 121 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush which will force Renner to win this game through the air. But he has struggled with his decision making, especially late in games. Wake Forest also holds a huge coaching edge in this game with Jim Grobe against rookie Everett Withers so we’ll take the points.
Teddy Covers
West Virginia @ Rutgers
PICK: Rutgers +7
Rutgers has two losses so far this season. Those two losses – on the road at North Carolina and on the road at Louisville – have come by a combined total of four points. The Scarlet Knights offensive weaknesses make them a poor choice as a favorite, but make no mistake about it – this is a defensive minded ‘find a way to compete’ type of ballclub; exactly what this bettor looks for from his home underdogs.
Rutgers frosh QB Gary Nova is coming off his worst game at the collegiate level. Head coach Greg Schiano doesn’t expect any carryover effect this week, and he thinks the Scarlet Knights are primed to start connecting on some of their downfield shots in the passing game. “We have not hit the home run, period, very much. That’s something we’re lacking as an offense, and I think that’s why we’re not scoring enough points. It’s very hard to nickel-and-dime it all the way down the field. We need to hit some of those shots. The shots are there; we’ve either dropped them, we’ve underthrown them, we’ve overthrown them, all different reasons, but we’ve got to hit them.”
Schiano, talking about his recruiting philosophy on the defensive side of the football: “The philosophy that I’ve adopted as a defensive coach is that you build it on speed. You’d like to have speed that has size, but until you can get the size with the speed, then we choose speed. We’re getting bigger and remaining fast.” The Scarlet Knights have held every team they’ve faced this season to 26 points and 405 yards or less.
West Virginia got blown out at mediocre Syracuse last week. We saw the Mountaineers nearly blow a 24 point second half lead at Maryland in their lone previous road game, struggling against another mediocre (at best) ballclub. Dana Holgorsen’s squad is not a good running team, relying heavily on Geno Smith’s ability to hit downfield receivers. That won’t be easy this week. And with a defense that has allowed 31+ three times in their last five games and special teams units that have allowed multiple kick return touchdowns this year, don’t expect an easy Mountaineer victory here…if they win the game at all. Take Rutgers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes -14.5
Minnesota has been crushed in each of its first 3 Big Ten games. Now, it's Iowa's turn to hand the Gophers a beating. The Iowa offense has really come alive the last 2 weeks, and the Hawkeyes will be lacking no motivation after being upset at Minnesota last year. The Minnesota defense has been run on at will. It gave up 363 rushing yards to Michigan, 217 to Purdue and 346 to Nebraska. Iowa, which has rushed for 155 and 203 yards the last 2 weeks, should be able to get whatever it wants on the ground as well. The Gophers will have to sell out to stop the run, and that will leave the Hawkeyes with some very easy play action opportunities. The Gophers don't have a soul who can hang with Marvin McNutt on the outside. Iowa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards or more per contest. The Hawks are defeating these foes by an average of 17.8 points. Take Iowa.
Black Widow
1* Tulane/East Carolina OVER 55
This is a match-up between two of the worst scoring defenses in the country, and as a result we should see plenty of points Saturday to get this OVER by the end of the 3rd quarter. Tulane is giving up 35.1 points and 370.7 total yards/game, and ECU is allowing 34.1 points and 394.9 yards/game. While both squads can attribute their poor defense to having losing records, neither has had trouble moving the football on offense. Tulane is averaging 372.5 yards/game and 431.7 yards/game in their last three, while ECU is reeling off 400.1 yards/game and 437.3 yards/game in their last three. ECU is coming off of a 38-35 road victory over Navy for 73 combined points. They have scored 35-plus in back-to-back games now. Tulane has given up 31 or more points in seven of eight games this season. We fully expect ECU to top 40 Saturday, while Tulane gets 20-plus to easily get this OVER by game's end. The OVER is 11-5 in Green Wave last 16 games overall, and the OVER is 12-5 in Pirates last 17 conference games. Take the OVER 55 points here.
Jim Feist
Mississippi vs. Auburn
Play: Over 50½
Mississippi has Coach Houston Nutt, who is very good at putting in offensive game planes. Last week he nearly pulled the upset of Arkansas, as Arkansas came back from an early 17-point deficit to beat Mississippi 29-24. Nutt emerged with a different game plan against the Razorbacks, using a heavy dose of freshman receiver Nickolas Brassell and a suddenly stingy defense. Brassell led the Rebels with eight catches for 70 yards. But the defense allowed 438 yards (206 rushing), a problem all season. The Auburn Tigers (5-3) run an uptempo attack under offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, behind junior QB Barrett Trotter (10 TDs, 6 INTs), though the defense has had some problems. The Over is 13-5 in the Tigers last 18 games as a home favorite and I see plenty of points. Play Auburn/Ole Miss Over the total.