Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 30, 2010

Bettorsworld

Missouri +7.5

Missouri fans are rejoicing at the 7-0 start that their Tigers have put together. The Big XII upstarts knocked off #1 Oklahoma with relative ease last week and will now do battle with #14 6-1 Nebraska. The Huskers enter this game after knocking off the undefeated Oklahoma State Cowboys on the road 51-41. They will seek to knock off another unbeaten at home after their last home game resulted in a 20-13 loss to Texas. Both of these teams are highly talented and they know what is at stake. The winner will be favorite to take the Big XII North. Let's see how they stack up!

The way Taylor Martinez played against Oklahoma State fans would never have dreamed that he was benched for a time against Texas. Martinez completed 23 of 35 passes for 323 yards and 5 TDs. He also rushed for 112 yards. The freshman was shutdown against Texas the week before, completing only 4 of 12 passes and scoring no TDs. This is the game where we will find out what the youngster is made out of. Missouri has exceptionally good defense, and they will keep the pressure on him. HC Bo Pelini can't rely on Martinez to do everything in this game or his Huskers will falter and ultimately fail.

Blaine Gabbert runs the show for Missouri. The junior has 6 TDs and no INTs in his last 3 games. Last week against Oklahoma he completed 30 of 42 passes for 308 yards and a TD. He doesn't make many mistakes. Gabbert will be facing a tough defense in Nebraska, but they are not unstoppable as Oklahoma State proved by nailing them for 41 points. Other key players on the offense for Missouri are De'Vion Moore, and Jerrell Jackson. The latter reeled in 9 passes for 139 yards and a TD against the Sooners. Moore rushed for 73 yards and 2 TDs. The skill players are able to succeed behind a strong offensive line that has given up only 8 sacks this year. Clearly, this offense can get points on the board.

The defense for the Tigers will give Nebraska everything they want. The Tigers held Texas A&M's high powered offense to just 9 points, and pitched a shutout to Colorado the week before that. Against Oklahoma they allowed 410 yards, but only 27 points. It will be very important for this defense to keep pressure on the young Martinez. They have to force him into making mistakes. Martinez has proved that he can not only scramble, but throw the ball. Pass rusher Jacquies Smith returned against the Sooners and will be a valuable asset for the Tigers in this game.

Who would have thought Nebraska could allow 41 points and still win? The defense was lucky that the offense had their back. Oklahoma State burned them for 495 yards and 41 points last week. This was surprising because before that the largest yardage total they allowed was 315 to Kansas State. Before that it was 299 to Western Kentucky, and 272 to Texas.

This has never been an overpowering defense that will get sacks, but they will have to get pressure on Gabbert to win this game. They might as well not even show up if they cant do that. The Huskers have a solid secondary and will cover the Missouri WRs, but can they stop the run? The only team to not get 100+ yards rushing on them this year was Iowa.

The line currently favors Nebraska as a 7.5 point favorite. This is a large number considering the Tigers are undefeated and coming in after taking down the top team in the country.

Yes, this is a tough spot for Missouri. It's the week after an huge upset over the #1 team in the country and it's incredibly difficult for a college football team not to hit a flat spot after a game of such magnitude. But we simply can't pass up +7.5 points in a game Missouri can win. They have beaten Nebraska 2 of the last 3 years and this Missouri team is better than previous editions. This still sport the #1 yards per point defensive number in the country at a whopping 30, and that's significant.

Schedule strength can be a factor, but we'd point out that they just knocked off the#1 team in the Nation and we'd also suggest that Nebraska hasn't exactly played the toughest schedule either. In fact, Nebraska failed their only test this year against a "good team" by losing to Texas, who may not be that good afterall.

At this stage, there is nothing not to like about Missouri. They certainly won't go down without a fight which makes the +7.5 all the more attractive.

Well, HC Mack Brown, they do call this the Entitlement Generation after all. Entitlement is what Brown is blaming the play of his Texas Longhorns on. He says they have it in their heads that teams will think "Oh, you're Texas, just go ahead and knock us around". However, that's not the way things work in the FBS. He is hoping to get his team back on track against the 6-2 upstart Baylor Bears. This is a team that nobody thought would be 6-2, but here they are. Can they go blow for blow with a down, but still classy Texas team? Let's analyze the game and find out.

Baylor has finally found a spot in the rankings at #25. While they started 6-2, they end the year with 4 of the toughest games on their schedule. Things only get harder after facing Texas. The Bears boast a high flying pass first offense. This offense is headed by QB Robert Griffin. The sophomore was lights out in the Bears 47-42 win over Kansas State. He passed for 404 yards, 4 TDs, and only a single INT. On the year he has 2,373 yards and 18 TDs. Griffin has also rushed for 6 TDs and 384 yards. Fellow sophomore WR Josh Gordon has 26 catches for 564 yards and 7 TDs. He is averaging 21.7 YPC.

The Baylor offense could run into problems here. First of all, they don't seem to travel well, and the environment in Texas will be crazy. Secondly, the Longhorns shut down a player similar to Griffin in Nebraska's Taylor Martinez. Baylor may have to rely more heavily on the run than they are used to doing. The offensive line has been stellar allowing only 3 sacks in the past 5 games. It is imperative for them to keep up the good work for Baylor to get a win here.

Problems for Baylor could be on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up 635, 399, and 407 yards of offense in their past 3 games. Texas is capable of getting close to that first number we mentioned. Despite a relatively high number of sacks, they aren't getting the job done. Texas has too many athletes for them to play a bad game and get out of there with a win.

Baylor +7.5

Who would have thought Texas would enter this game against an instate foe and be the team that isn't ranked? Things change fast in the world of college football. If the Longhorns want to get back on track they will need great play from QB Garrett Gilbert. The sophomore has been largely ineffective this year, but its never too late for this talented kid to turn things around. After a 2 TD, 3 INT showing against Iowa State we can expect him to come out and at least try to redeem himself.

RBs Foswhitt Whitaker and Cody Johnson need to have big games as well. The junior/senior duo have only 5 TDs between them this year. Gilbert, Johnson, and Whitaker will find this Baylor defense to their liking. It would be a big surprise if Texas doesn't get a large number of points on the board.

The Texas defense isn't as stellar as it has been in years past, but they have displayed an ability to stop QBs like Robert Griffin. They proved it against Nebraska when they shut down Taylor Martinez. This defense is giving up a mere 261 yards per game. The biggest matchup in this game will be the Texas defense against the Baylor offense. Both are solid, but which one will give in?

"Situations" in college football handicapping are just as important as stats. Here, we circled Baylor weeks ago as a play in this spot. In fact, we even mentioned it last week in our Baylor write up. It was obvious in week 1 this year against Rice that something was wrong with Texas. Here you'd have a Baylor team playing better than they have in years going up against an underachieving Texas squad ripe for a huge upset. But something happened last week that has thrown a wrench into the situation. Texas lost to Iowa State. Iowa State stole our thunder. It was supposed to be Baylor upsetting Texas THIS week. Oh well.

Here's the thing. We talk about talent gaps all the time. There may be no better example than Texas and Baylor. Texas has the Talent. Baylor doesn't. In the 12 years Mack Brown has been at the helm, Texas is 12-0 against Baylor winning by an average score of 48-11. Baylor hasn't come close. Even last year, with Baylor showing signs of improvement, Texas whipped them 47-14. Talent gaps this wide do not change in one year.

Baylor has done a fine job this year, finally qualifying for a Bowl game after knocking off Kansas State last week. But in the one game against a strong opponent this year, TCU, Baylor was blown off the field 45-10. Their wins are against Sam Houston, Buffalo, Rice, Kansas, Colorado and Kansas State. Nothing to write home about. They also lost to Texas Tech, who is not the same Texas Tech we've known in recent years. All the credit goes to Baylor, but let's face it, things had to break just right as far as their schedule goes for them to be sitting at 6-2 with a shot to win the Big 12. They happen to be catching all of the teams that traditionally give them trouble, in down years, including Texas.

The Texas talent has made some "cameo" appearances this year when facing a true challenge. They knocked off Nebraska and went toe to toe with #8 Oklahoma. It's not that Baylor can't compete here, and even pull the upset. They can. Rice stayed in the game against Texas. UCLA beat Texas and we all saw what Iowa State did last week.

Had the situation this week been a little different, we would have made Baylor a key release and it may have even been our highest rated play of the year. Iowa State ruined it for us. Now, Baylor becomes a strong opinion. At most, a peanut play.

The Talent gap, Texas not having lost on consecutive weeks at home since 1938, losing to Iowa State, the fans, alumni and media all questioning the team, Baylor being ranked 25th while Texas isn't even ranked.........there are just too many variables at work here to go forward with a play on Baylor. We'll leave it as a lean towards Baylor, as the numbers still support it and there is definitely something wrong with this Texas team.

Oregon -6.5

It may be October, but there will be a Bowl game played this week. Make no mistake, taking on #1 Oregon is a Bowl game for the USC Trojans and they will treat it as such. HC Lane Kiffin's team sits at 5-2 and as most know by now, they are banned from postseason play. What better way to make 2010 count than by downing the #1 Oregon Ducks? If they are able to do so it will be the 4th consecutive week in which a #1 team has fallen. This game will take place at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The line open at 7 in favor of Oregon where it currently stands.

You aren't hearing much about him, but QB Matt Barkley is playing well in 2010. The sophomore has quietly passed for 1,869 yards and 20 TDs. His Trojans enter this week after a bye. In their last game they won 48-14 over California. Barkley had his best game of the year, tossing 5 TDs while completing 25 of 37 passes for 352 yards. The Trojans have two reliable RBs in Allen Bradford and Marc Tyler. The duo combined for 4 TDs and 283 yards in a 32-31 loss to Washington. If all three of these guys are able to put together big games against Oregon it could be lights out for the nation's top team.

The USC offense has been excellent as a whole. They are getting 400+ yards in nearly every game. In their last game against California they racked up 602 yards. Much up this impressive work is done behind a stellar offensive line that has allowed just 6 sacks in 2010. They will have to click on all cylinders to win this game, but it's very possible for them to do that.

The Oregon Ducks have been largely unstoppable on offense. They are winning the war in the trenches and have allowed just 2 sacks this year. QB Sophomore QB Darron Williams has passed for 17 TDs and 1,539 yards this year. The majority of the work is being done on the ground however. Sophomore LaMichael James is averaging a massive 7.2 YPC and has 971 yards and 11 TDs on the year. As if those two weren't enough, the Ducks have yet another weapon in RB Remene Alston. He had 3 TDs in Oregon's lopsided 60-13 win over UCLA last week. Senior Jeff Maehl is the top WR for the Ducks. He has reeled in 39 catches and 6 TDs for 530 yards.

The Ducks rank 12th in the nation in Points Against at 15.9, but this paints a much rosier picture than reality reveals. Arizona State scorched them for 597 yards, and if not for winning the TO war by 5, they very easily could have lost. Stanford had 514 yards and looked unstoppable for a half. To their credit, the Ducks shut Stanford down in the second half. The Trojans are very clearly the best offense the top ranked Ducks have faced in 2010. They have threats all over the place. This is the game where we will find out what Oregon is truly made of on defense.

Perhaps the most important matchup in this game will be the USC defense against the Oregon offense. Can they stop LaMichael James? They allowed 538 yards in a loss to Washington, and 588 in a win against Hawaii. They did show potential last week holding California to 245 yards. The Bears lowest total before that was 356 yards. With an extra week of rest and knowing what is at stake, we expect a solid effort from the Trojans on defense.

This is easily the college football game of the week. It's a fascinating game for so many reasons. For USC, it's the biggest game they'll play all year. It's their "title game". USC coaches spent the bye week recruiting. Recruiting all over the country. You can be sure the last thing they said before leaving each recruit this past week was "tune in Saturday night and see for yourself what awaits you if you choose USC". When Pete Carroll left town and the NCAA sanctions hit, USC lost some luster in the recruiting ranks and even had players leave the program which has contributed to a lack of depth on this team. This game is huge for the current USC players but even bigger for the future of this program.

It's not exactly a small game for Oregon either. They have a #1 ranking to defend as well as some recruiting power to gain. When you have a giant down on the ground, you have to finish him off and drive the stake through his heart. Let him off the hook, he'll likely come back and take you out. That's the situation facing Oregon.

This game is all about offense. Both teams are going to get their yards and points. No question. I wouldn't expect a shut out this week! So it comes down to which team you'd rather have in a shootout, and for us, that team is Oregon. True, you have to consider schedule strength and who they have played, but this team is putting on an offensive show unlike any we've seen in a major conference in many years. (Sorry Boise, we said "Major" conference)

USC is giving up on average 402 yards per game compared with Oregon who is giving up 331 and is also 12th in the country in points allowed at 16 points per game. That puts Oregon in the top half of the country defensively while USC is in the bottom half in both yardage and points allowed.

You have to look at this game and figure, despite what a huge game this is for USC, if Hawaii, Washington and Stanford were able to average 35 points scored against USC, what's Oregon going to do?

We simply prefer the Oregon side in a shoot out. Their offense is lethal. They can strike quickly and often. They can blow a game wide open in the blink of an eye and they also have something USC doesn't......depth. This team wears other teams down late in games. Only one team has scored against Oregon in the 4th quarter this year. In fact, pay attention to the halftime line in this one. An even stronger play might be on Oregon in the 2nd half if the price is right.

The feeling here is that this is the year of the Duck. This is their year, and if they are going to win a football game, they are likely to do it by double digits as they have in every game this year. This is a big game, no doubt. But it's big for BOTH teams and we think the right side here is Oregon.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

Houston -14 over MEMPHIS

The Cougars are figuring out that life without Keenum isn't so bad as they have averaged 35.5 ppg in their last 4 games. Now they take on a pathetic defense that is 111th overall (447.4 ypg), 1907th vs the pass (259.9 ypg and 115th in points allowed (39.4 ppg). Not good numbers when your about to face a Houston offense that is 24th overall (442.4 ypg, 17th in passing (284.3 ypg and 9th in scoring (39.5 ppg). The Houston efense dose have some holes, but no worries here as they will be facing a Tiger attack that 115th overall (271.7 ypg) and 116th in scoring (13.8 ppg). Memphis has been outscored byb 39 ppg in their last 3 games and they lost by 41 points to Houston last year. Houston does have UCF and Tulsa on deck, but the loss to Rice 2 weeks ago will have this team with the mindset that they can't look past anyone. The Cougs will be ready as they win this one by 30+.

4 UNIT PLAY

Total Of The Week San Jose State/ New Mexico State Under 47

Alabama, Wisconsin, Utah, Nevada, Boise and Fresno. When SJSU has taken on those teams a total of 49.6 ppg have been scored, but vs their other two opponents (both FCS Foes) an average of just 27 ppg have been scored. NMSU falls in the category of the FCS foes in terms of talent. San Jose comes in ranked dead last in the nation in scoring at a measely 10 ppg, while the Aggies are 2nd to dead last at 12.4 ppg. NMSU is 116th intotal offense, while the Spartans are 119th. Very putrid offenses here. Now they will be going up against two of the worst defenses in the nation, but this game reminds me alot of the Lobo/ aggie game a few weeks back. I never made a play on the game, but all week long i stated that I felt a low scoring game was in the off and they combined for just 30 points. I won't pass up a play again as I just don't think these offenses are good enough to score on the worst defenses in the nation. Look for a game in the mid 30's here.

Hollywood Sports

Utah St. at Nevada
Prediction: Nevada

The Wolf Pack (6-1) will have had two weeks to recover and prepare for this game after suffering their first loss of the season at Hawaii. Four turnovers did Nevada in but they should play better back at home where they are outscoring their opponents by more than four touchdowns. Their pistol offense that generates 288.6 rushing YPG and 509.3 total YPG -- both 6th best marks in the FBS -- averages 46.8 PPG and 580.2 total YPG when at home. Nevada will score plenty of points against an Aggies' defense that allows 30.7 PPG (92nd in the FBS) and 421 total YPG (95th in the FBS). Utah State let Hawaii total over 600 yards against them last week in their 45-7 loss to the Warriors. And they have failed to cover the spread in six straight games following a defensive lapse where they allowed at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State (2-5) just does not the offensive weapons to keep up with quarterback Colin Kaepernick (68.2%, 8.4 YPA, 6.9 YPC) and running back Vai Taua (6.6 YPC). They score 19.6 PPG (101st in the FBS) and gain only 332.7 total YPG -- and these numbers fall to just 12.3 PPG and 287 total YPG when on the road. Nevada is very tough at home as a favorite as they have covered 21 of their last 28 games in these situations. Looking to redeem themselves from the loss to Hawaii, Nevada will put up a big number against a Utah State team that will not be able to keep up. Lay the points.

Marc Lawrence

Michigan St. at Iowa
Play: Michigan St.

The Spartans robbed us with their criminal cover of Northwestern last week and we’re now convinced that they’re a charmed team. How else can you explain last week’s come-from-behind win, its OT victory over Notre Dame, HC Mark Dantonio coming back from a heart attack and neither sight nor sound of Ohio State on the November schedule. Combine that with talent (8-0 ‘In The Stats' this season) and a magical season could be unfolding in Lansing. Luck is once again on the State side as Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz treks to a 5-11-1 ATS mark as a favorite or a dog of less than seven points versus undefeated opposition, including 0-3 SU and ATS in conference play. Our database also points out that his Hawkeyes are 1-10 ATS at home off an immediate home loss if they allowed less than 35 points in the loss while the Spartans are a confident 14-3 ATS away off a SU win with conference revenge, including 5-0 ATS the last five. The clincher is the two games involving common opponents this season (Michigan and Wisconsin) in which the Spartans hold a strong 211 net-yard advantage. Grab the points with the better team. We recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan State.

Sam Martin

Missouri at Nebraska
Prediction: Nebraska

The dream ends here for Missouri, one week after upsetting Oklahoma at home. Now they face a tough matchup in Nebraska, and will be in a huge letdown spot after their big win last week. The Tigers have had some issues stopping the run, most notably against Illinois (200 yards allowed) and San Diego State (250 yards). Now they face a stout Nebraska offense, and a good Cornhuskers pass defense. Missouri fades late in a big Nebraska win!

Matt Fargo

Baylor vs. Texas
Play: Baylor +7

Baylor is ranked for the first time since 1993 and is bowl eligible for the first time since 1995. This could mean a letdown spot but the makeup of this team should not let that happen. There are big goals for the Bears and they have not been met yet. They have not defeated a team when they were ranked since 1991 which is certainly a goal it wants to attain. Adding to it even further, this is the first time since 1986 when Baylor is ranked and Texas is not. Head coach Art Briles reiterated the attention to focus on Fox Sports Houston. “We are in a week-by-week profession, and they are in a week-by-week playing profession,” Briles said of the Baylor coaches and players, respectively. “What happened last week was last season. It is done. It is over with. We are on a new season this week, and all of our focus and energy started [Sunday] afternoon on the University of Texas and that is where it will remain until we get through with that game and go on to the next one.” Texas is favored by a touchdown simply because it is Texas and not because it is that much better than the Bears. This game should actually be in the pickem range in my opinion or Texas favored by no more than a field goal and that is usually around the price that an unranked home team is over a ranked road team when favored. The Longhorns are coming off a loss against Iowa St. last week but I don’t believe it was an aberration as this Texas team just isn’t right. The Longhorns have dropped three of their last four games and the lone win against Nebraska was far from a convincing win. The last home victory, and only home victory for that matter, came back on September 11th against Wyoming. The other home defeat came against lowly UCLA so there are definite issues going on right now. The defense remains one of the best in the nation as Texas is sixth in total defense however it is ranked 33rd in scoring defense and that stems from other areas at fault. The Longhorns will face a very explosive offense from Baylor. Baylor has scored 30 or more points in seven of its eight games this season, including the last five so it is peaking at the right time as the schedule gets tougher. In four games in October, Baylor’s offense has averaged over 600 ypg on offense and the Bears are currently ranked 5th in the country in total offense and 20th in scoring offense. Quarterback Robert Griffin III has come back strong from his knee injury as he is third in the nation in total offense. Since Briles took over, Baylor is 9-2 ATS after one or more straight losses against the number including four straight. Texas is just 1-6 in its last seven games as a favorite and it is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game while Baylor is just the opposite and is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Bears accomplishments keep on coming. 3* Baylor Bears

Tony George

Tulsa vs. Notre Dame
Play: Tulsa +8.5

What the hell is Notre Dame doing laying 9 to anyone? REALLY? Sad events around the Notre Dame Program this week, as a student cameraman who was filming practice was killed when a gust of wind from these Midwest storms blew over his tower. The campus is in mourning and this is a distraction for the Irish, who really cannot afford a distraction as Navy took them out behind the woodshed last week for an old fashion butt kicking.

How far the once mighty Irish have fallen, with no help from Touchdown Jesus either, as they have managed just 16 covers at home their last 53 home games. Add to that injuries to a starting Tight End and WR, both out here in this one, and you have the makings of a game that is a MUST WIN FOR Notre Dame against a decent foe. Now Tulsa is no powerhouse but they will give the Irish fits with their scheme and speed this Saturday and the best QB on the field is not from Notre Dame, like that’s any surprise.

Tulsa is off a bye weekend have a dual threat QB in GJ Kinne, whose spread offense has put up 500 yards plus 4 times this season, and it is a balanced attack. He is a serious threat to run and throw and just like Michigans QB in here, should have a big day against a struggling defense who was torched on the ground last week. Tulsa thinks this is a huge game for their program, they will bring the heat and up tempo style to South Bend and make this a very interesting game. Visitors to South Bend have covered 9 out of the last 10, and although ND will score against a weak pass defense, they will also give up plenty of points.

The Wiseguys

Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns
Play: Baylor Bears +7.5

Don’t be surprised if that team checking in at No. 25 in the AP poll doesn’t sound familiar. After all, they haven’t been there for 17 years.

Baylor entered the AP Top 25 rankings Sunday – in the final spot – for the first time since 1993 after a win over Kansas State. That victory was their sixth of the season and also made the Bears eligible to end a 16-year bowl drought.

The last time Baylor was ranked was early season 1993 when they opened the season by beating Fresno State. That earned them a No. 24 showing, which they promptly gave back the next week when they lost to then-No. 10 Colorado.

The last time the Bears were ranked for more than a week was 1991, when they were still part of the Southwest Conference. If they’re going to do that again this year, they will almost certainly have to beat Texas in Austin Saturday.

Baylor comes into that game as 9-point underdogs, which is the right side considering the matchup and the struggles the Longhorns (4-3) have had this year, namely home losses to Iowa State and UCLA.

Texas fell out of the polls this week after the Iowa State loss. The last time the Bears and Longhorns played when Baylor was ranked and Texas was not was in November 1986. The Bears beat the Horns 18-13 in Waco.

This year’s Baylor appearance in the AP poll comes courtesy of the Bears beating Kansas State 47-42 on Saturday behind quarterback Robert Griffin III. The win on homecoming came a week after the Bears held Colorado out of end zone in the closing seconds of a 31-25 win on the road.

Two close wins, the last coming after giving up over 6.5 yards per play to run-happy Kansas State (Baylor is 6-0 in their following game after giving up the 6.25 yard/play under coach Briles), sets up Saturday's contest as yet another embarrassing performance by a Texas squad that was vastly overrated coming into the season.

Expect Baylor to ground-pound the football right at the Texas defense and produce result in the process.

Take a competitive Bears team and the points in Austin on Saturday.

Teddy Covers

Michigan @ Penn St.
PICK: Michigan -3

This is without a doubt the single most important game for Michigan in the Rich Rodriguez era. The Wolverines went 2-6 in Big 10 play in Rodriguez’s first season on the job, and followed that up with a 1-7 mark last year. This season, Michigan started 5-0; ranked for the first time since 2007. But they lost back-to-back home games by double digit margins against Michigan State and Iowa prior to their bye week.

Now, with extra time to prepare, the Wolverines head to Happy Valley to take on a Nittany Lions team that they had beaten nine straight times, until getting whipped in each of the last two years. Star QB Denard Robinson (1100 rushing yards with nine TD’s; 1300 passing yards with nine more TD’s) is fully healthy once again, poised to shred a Penn State defense that hasn’t seen a dual threat QB of this caliber all season long.

While Penn State’s defense is likely to struggle against the dynamic Michigan attack, their offense is equally problematic this weekend. Joe Paterno will be forced to start former walk-on Matt McGloin at quarterback following the injury to Robert Bolden. It’s not like the Nittany Lions were scoring points in bunches even with Bolden, averaging less than 17 points per game against FBS competition this year. In a game where Penn State is going to need to score points in bunches, I don’t expect their offense to have enough potency to hang around for four full quarters. 2* Take Michigan.

Tom Stryker

Washington St. @ Arizona St
PICK: Arizona St. -21

Washington State has quietly covered four in a row and five of its last six. The Cougars are grabbing nearly three touchdowns here and the knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points. I wouldn’t do that if I were you. Arizona State applies to a profitable college system of mine that has been money-in-the-bank and this technical gem demands our respect.

Since 1980, home favorites priced at -20 or more are a juicy 79-47-2 ATS provided they got blown out by 20 points or more in their last game. This situation actually does much better from game four of the season out – now 67-33-2 ATS for 67.0 percent. The Sun Devils (-21) dropped their last contest by 30 points at California and they fit this situation perfectly.

ASU has played well in this series lately notching a solid 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS record in its last 21 meetings with WSU. After road wars against Oregon State, Washington and Cal, the Sun Devils will be elated to be back home too. ASU closes with three of its last five battles in Tempe and I expect the Devils to make a run late.

Finally, as a home favorite of -11’ or more, Arizona State has been at its best posting a profitable 28-11-1 ATS record including a stunning 14-3 ATS in conference play. In comparison Washington State has struggled on foreign soil notching a weak 1-21 SU and 9-13 ATS record including a nasty 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.

After whipping Portland and Northern Arizona inside Sun Devil Stadium back in early September, ASU slipped in its last home game against a good Oregon team. It’s time for head coach Dennis Erickson’s troops to crank things up a notch here. The Cougars pointspread roll is about to come to an abrupt end. Take Arizona St.

Larry Ness

Utah @ Air Force
Pick: Air Force +7

The 8th-ranked Utes (also No. 8 in the BCS) travel to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force this Saturday. Utah is one of seven teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision still without a loss in 2010 and take an overall eight-game winning streak into this game. Air Force was 5-1 after six games themselves and ranked as high as No. 23. However, the Falcons lost at San Diego St two weeks ago (27-25) and last weekend the Falcons were handed their second straight loss 38-7 by TCU in Fort Worth. Air Force entered that game No. 1 in rushing (346 per) but was held to just 184 yards by the Horned Frogs, who outgained the Falcons in the game, 562 total yards to 231. This is a tough spot for the Utes. They have those same Horned Frogs (No. 4 in the AP and BCS) up next weekend at home and don't want to get caught looking ahead. One would think that is impossible, considering the closeness of this series. However, that closeness also makes me think the Falcons are very 'live dogs' in this one. Utah squeaked by a ranked Pittsburgh team 27-24 (in OT) in its season opener but since then the Utes have won their last six games by an average score of 51.2-to-11.0 PPG (no game closer than 24 points!). However, a check of the MWC record book (conference began in 1999) reveals the following. Here's the margins over victory of the last 11 meetings of these two rivals, 7 (OT), 7, 8, 3, 3, 14, 2 (OT), 4, 1, 9 and 6. Air Force has covered in EIGHT of the 11 meetings as MWC rivals and I expect the 'Flyboys' to bring their "A-game." Utah may just slip up before its November 6 showdown with TCU. That would be a shame for TCU, Utah and the MWC but I'm not in the business of rooting. Take the points.

David Chan

Missouri @ Nebraska
PICK: Missouri +7.5

It's not a surprise that Missouri is putting up a lot of points again this season. But what is different is the Tigers are playing well defensively, too.

It's not a fluke. The Tigers have some real athletes on defense and they're playing with confidence.

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't quite realized this because no way should the Tigers be more than a touchdown underdog to Nebraska.

Missouri just dealt Oklahoma its first loss holding the Sooners to their smallest point total of the season.

Who has Nebraska beaten? I'll tell you who the Cornhuskers have lost to - Texas. The Longhorns have turned out to be one of the most overrated teams in the country losing to UCLA and Iowa State.

You can't just judge a team by their record. Current form is huge and Missouri passes that test. The Tigers are playing their best ball having won and covered in their last four games beating Miami of Ohio by 38 points, shutting out Colorado 26-0, defeating Texas A&M by 21 and knocking off Oklahoma by nine points.

Nebraska's Taylor Martinez threw for five touchdowns last week at Oklahoma State, but I'm not convinced of the freshman's passing prowess. Missouri's Blaine Gabbert is the better throwing quarterback.

The Cornhuskers have been lucky in that they've fumbled 24 times, but only lost the ball nine times.

Missouri isn't going to suffer a letdown. No way in this huge rivalry matchup. Note, too, the road team has won during each of the last two years. Missouri slaughtered the Cornhuskers, 52-17, when it last visited Lincoln two years ago.

The Tigers have covered in 10 of their last 14 road games under Gary Pinkel.

Please note that David is on an amazing two-year college football run of 73-51-5 on his guaranteed selections and already is 1-0 this week with a free pick winner on Louisiana Tech

Jim Feist

San Jose State vs. New Mexico St
Take: Under 47

Reason: WAC battle of the inept offenses. San Jose State (1-7 SU/3-3 ATS) has an anemic offense veraging 11 points and 240 total yards. Senior QB Jordan La Secla (4 TDs, 8 INTs) has little to work with outside of senior RB Lamon Muldrow. They squeezed out a 16-11 win over Southern Utah, despite only 250 total yards, and had a 14-13 loss at home to UC Davis. San Jose is 4-2 under the total. New Mexico State (1-6 SU/2-5 ATS) is terrible under coach Dewayne Walker, using 3 QBs and the offense is just awful, averaging 13 points. Their top two rushers average 3.3 ypc or less. Play New Mexico State/San Jose State Under the total.

Wunderdog

California Golden Bears vs. Oregon State Beavers
Play: California Golden Bears +3

The California Bears have not yet won on the road yet so how do they have a shot here? Look at the competition. They lost to Arizona, USC and Nevada, teams with a combined record of 17-4. This game should be different as they face a .500 team. The Bears have a nasty defense that ranks #16 in the country. They have already held five of their opponents to 17 points or less, and four of their opponents to 10 points or less! Oregon State hasn't exactly been blowing teams out with their three wins coming by a total of 12 points. The Bears not only have a powerful defense to keep them in the game, but they have a capable offense that has scored 50+ on three different occasions this season. And they have been a dangerous road dog over the years, entering this one at 15-6-1 ATS as a road dog in their last 22. The Beavers are not faring so well as a small favorite of 3 points or less where they have covered just one of their last five. This has been a road-dominated series with the road team cashing six of the last seven. The public is all over Oregon State here (75% of around 5,000 bets). My computer matchup predicts a Cal win and I agree! Take the Bears here.