Bryan Leonard
East Carolina Pirates vs. Central Florida Golden Knights
Play: East Carolina Pirates +7½
At first glance you may want to back the Knights of Central Florida in this match-up since they have been dominant in front of a nationwide audience against UAB and Marshall. But given a second and more thorough look the underdog is the way to go in this contest.
East Carolina has played the much tougher schedule taking on the likes of Tulsa, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Southern Miss and NC State. They are 3-2 against that rugged slate including outright wins over the later two teams both as touchdown or higher underdogs. The truth of the matter is than the Pirates are much better than anyone thought after returning just eight starters and a new head coach in Ruffin McNeill.
Central Florida is on quite a roll winning their last three games by a 118-35 margin. But against the two decent teams they played this year the Knights came up short against NC State and Kansas State. Central Florida has shown the ability to dominate lesser squads but they have yet to beat a team of the caliber of East Carolina.
Historically the Pirates have dominated the Knights winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. The last four years East Carolina has won by margins of 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. Yet the Pirates have been installed as more than a touchdown underdog here. That line just doesn't represent the talent levels on these two teams. East Carolina hasn't been as impressive as Central Florida but they have played the far tougher schedule. Look for this game to be decided late with the underdog never in doubt of the cover.
Doug Upstone
Missouri Tigers vs. Nebraska Huskers
Play: Nebraska Huskers -7½
Among the many big games this Saturday, one of the most important will be the clash between Missouri and Nebraska. These are two explosive offensive teams with the Tigers averaging 34.7 points per game and the Cornhuskers even better at 38.9 PPG. The amount of interest and significance is definitely compelling, since Missouri could all but wrap up the Big 12 North or Nebraska could regain control with a victory.
What we find from database research is conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, involved in a contest in which both squads average 34 or more points, having played seven or more games, are 3-26 against the spread. Play Against Missouri.
Freddy Wills
Duke vs. Navy
Take Duke +14
I was on Navy huge a week ago as they ran over Notre Dame as I said they would in a huge game 35-17. This week I am fading the Irish as I love to do after a team is coming off a huge win. Vegas tends to exagerate lines in this situation and I think Duke does do things well and have been bad record wise due to the strength of schedule that has featured Alabama and Virginia Tech two teams many thought would meet for a National Title game at the beginning of the season.
Duke Key Stats and Strengths:
Duke has the 66th ranked offense and the 106th ranked defense. They can pass the ball with QB Sean Renfree ranked 36th in the country despite facing very good defenses with 5 in the top 45 in pass defense and an average ranked 41st. Like in years past Duke can really wing the ball and they'll face a Navy team ranked 16th, but that rank in my opinion is very over rated. Duke has plenty of weapons on offense to score and keep this game within two touchdowns with Conner Vernon, Donovan Varner, and Austin Kelly all with at least 30 receptions this season.
Key here is the defense. They are ranked 106th in the country and although they have played against good offenses they are facing a Navy team that is really starting to click now that Ricky Dobbs is healthy. So why am I confident Duke still covers here? Well against a very similar Army team they lost by 14 but were +39 yards and if it weren't for turnovers by Sean Renfree they would have won the game. I truly believe Duke is more prepared for this game now that they have already seen this style of offense.
Navy Key Stats and Strenghts:
Navy has the 63rd ranked offense very similar to Duke's 66th. However, they have gotten there with a one dimensional attack and facing an average defense ranked 81st with only 1 defense in the top 45 where as Duke has seen 5. You could say Duke has a better offense and should keep this game closer than many think.
Defense is another story. Navy is by far better than Duke on defense and that is why you see this spread. Overall they have similar strength of schedules in terms of the offenses they have faced and Navy has really held it together as they are disciplined.
Final Thoughts:
These teams have had two common opponents in Maryland and Wake Forest. The results are very similar and do not warrant a spread of 14 points. I think this spread is mainly due to Navy surprising everyone against Notre Dame. They did not surprise me and now I think they have a little bit of a hang over in a close game.
Both teams played at Maryland and lost this year. Duke lost by 5 but out gained Maryland by 105 yards while Navy lost 14-17 and out gained them by 213 yards. Duke went on the road at Wake Forest and hung 48 points but they gave up 54 and were out gained by 13 while Navy hosted Wake and won by 1 point despite being out gained by 35 yards.
I think Navy definitely gets out gained here in yardage. The key is if Renfree doesn't turn the ball over Duke will cover. If he does we could have a push, but I do give Duke a chance at a win here which makes me feel good overall about the cover at +14.
JR O'Donnell
Texas -7 vs Baylor
The 4-3 Mack Brown led Texas Longhorns just flat out bring the heat on Defense, They flat out stuffed Nebby 2 weeks ago! We know that offence brings people in & fills the Stadiums, but Defence covers the spread! Come on Boys, Unranked Texas " laying 7" off a ugly embarrassing loss last week to a 21 point dog in Iowa State, They out gained and out first downed the Iowa State crew last week. The 6-2 and #24th ranked Baylor Bears hang up 49 on the Kansas State Wildcats!! Wow, the public is set up this week boys. The Oster is 40-18 in the football ranks this season and this will not be a popular play this Saturday night.
The Power Ratings check in here for Mack Browns club @ -12 and that does not bode well for the Bears. The Texas loss last week was because of 4 to's and "IF" they protect the rock that game is a whole different story! The Baylor Bears struggled on D and have given up at least 25 points four times this season already. The Mack Brown crew is ready to roll!! Baylor punches in @ 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Texas crew is a JR O SHARPIE...
Dan Bebe
California +3 vs Oregon St.
If you can get this bad boy at 3.5, clearly that's the goal, but it doesn't feel like it's going to get there.
All season we've faded Cal on the road, and backed them at home...until today.
Are we getting fancy? Probably a little, but there comes a time when the public just isn't foolish enough to keep playing Cal off a giant home win (when they get killed on the road), and vice versa. And when that time comes, Cal will impress with a quality road performance.
The Cal defense has been very, very good, masked by that game in Nevada where they were caught with their pants down, and the game with USC in Southern California, where, for lack of a better term, Cal just wasn't ready to play, and isn't ever ready to play.
But here, in Corvallis, Cal will be ready. Cal played a great all-around game against a team (in Arizona State) that had actually shown some promise on the road, and I feel like the Bears are finally turning that corner. The defense is going to keep them in the game, and if the offense plays smart, they will score some points. The Beavers have one of the poorer defenses in the Pac-10, and with every game Cal's offense is getting better - largely because the receivers are evolving.
And the single biggest reason that we're grabbing the points?
Oregon St. plays close games! It's just how they operate. They've played 3 games in the Pac-10, and those contests have been decided by a grand total of 6 points! That subpar defense isn't allowing Oregon St. to open up any large leads, but their solid running game doesn't really let them fall far behind. So, back and forth the game goes, and the last team to have the ball is going to win.
I strongly believe this game is going to come down to the wire, and I think Cal snags its first road win of 2010. Fortunately, though, we can get a FG to give us a buffer.
Play on the Golden Bears!
Spartan
Oregon -6.5 vs Southern Cal
Been on a nice run with the free selections so let's see if we can keep it rolling. I've looked hard at this match up and listened patiently to folks make their case for the USC Trojans here, frankly I am just not buying it. Frankly from a fan standpoint it would not bother me in the least to see the Ducks drown here, any team with uniforms that hideous should be outlawed from appearing on national TV let alone a national title game. What the hell are those people thinking about? Is there not anyone who can pull the AD aside and say, hey pal, this just is not the look we need! I guess not. With that said, they are a kick ass football team that is playing with incredible momentum right now and I do not see them getting stopped against the Trojans here. The Ducks are averaging a sick 55 points per game and they do it quickly as they rank 114th in time of possession so that's what the Trojans are dealing with here. Last fall I had a huge Triple Star on Oregon when USC came up to Autzen Stadium and it was an easy winner as the Ducks dismantled the Trojans 47-20. Make no mistake about it, USC still has the athletes to make Oregon labor harder than they have all season and certainly will. If Oregon has one of those days where they have some turnovers this could easily be where they go down. However when all is said and done I look for another impressive Oregon victory keeping their national title hopes very much alive, creepy uniforms or not.
James Patrick Sports
Utah State vs. Nevada
The Pack is a moneymaking (20-5) ATS as home favorites under HC Chris Ault and the team felt by many to be the only challenge left on Boise State’s schedule, the Wolf Pack stubbed their toe against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors as their high-powered offense was inexplicably held to (21) points and less than 300 yards of total offense in the loss. Big Game James Patrick says to lay it on this Saturday night. Saturday Night College Football complimentary selection is Nevada Wolfpack.
Tom Freese
Duke at Navy
Play: Navy
Navy is 5-2 straight up this year. The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games off a straight up win. Navy is 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. The Favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings. Duke is 1-6 straight up this year. The Blue Devils are 7-19 ATS their last 26 games after passing for less than 170 yards. Duke is 3-9 ATS their last 12 games after gaining less than 275 yards in their last game.
John Ryan
Akron at Temple
Play: Temple
5* graded play on Temple as they host Akron set to start at 1:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 30 or more points. A complete and monumental mismatch that projects a similar result of my winner last week on Utah. Temple is supported by a system that has produced a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games and is an average offensive team gaining 4.8 to 5.6 yards per pass and now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 yards per pass. Temple rolls BIG.
Mike Rose
Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Sacramento Kings +3
The Cleveland Cavaliers shocked the Celtics here on opening night, but they had an emotional edge in that game that they do not enjoy here, and the upstart Sacramento Kings have the makings of a good team as long as last year’s Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans stays healthy and top draft choice DeMarcus Cousins meets expectations.
There were two reasons that the Cavaliers were in a great spot when they upset Boston on Wednesday, the first one being that the game came the night after the Celts battled the Miami Heat in one of the more hyped opening night games in quite some time, making the game against these Cavaliers the next night a huge letdown spot.
The second reason was that the Cavaliers themselves wanted to prove to the world that they can win without LeBron James, so they played with tremendous emotion and pure adrenaline. Now that they got that statement win vs. a marquee opponent out of the way, this game vs. the Kings should be decided by the talent on the floor, and in that sense, there is really not that much difference between these two teams.
The Cavaliers are favored in this match-up despite the Kings looking to be the better overall team; grab the points with Sacramento confidently!
BIG AL
Baylor @ Texas
Play: Baylor +7.5
Last week, we went against Texas and played on Iowa State +21 over the Longhorns, and were rewarded when the Cyclones actually won outright over Mack Brown's men in Austin. A lot of folks will play on the Burnt Orange to rebound here with a win, but according to my database, teams tend to NOT rebound off REALLY BAD losses in which they were favored by 18+ points. Indeed, since 1980, College Football teams are a terrible 33-68 ATS when priced from +3 to -25.5 off a straight-up loss as a favorite of -18 points or more. And our 33-68 stat improves to 11-31 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Texas) is at home vs. a conference opponent. Take Baylor + the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Missouri @ Nebraska
PICK: Nebraska -7.5
I had Nebraska on these pages last week and we cashed when they beat Oklahoma State, 51-41. The Huskers are catching Mizzou at the right time this week. Missouri, of course, is off HC Gary Pinkel's "signature win," beating then top-ranked Oklahoma last Saturday. But I felt OU beat themselves as much as Mizzou won that game. The Sooners had three empty trips inside the Tiger 15 yard line, thanks to a pair of turnovers and a missed field goal. But the Mizzou defense is in for a tough one this week. UNL QB Taylor Martinez has given every remaining opponent something else to worry about...his arm. Martinez connected on 23 of 35 passes for over 320 yards and 5 TDs in last week's win in Stillwater. But the matchup I like most about this contest is Nebraska's outstanding running attack against a Missouri defense that was torched on the ground by San Diego State. Nebraska also will give the Tigers and QB Blaine Gabbert some problems with their 3rd ranked pass defense, when Mizzou tries to go up top. Missouri is not a good running team, and Nebraska can "tee-off" at opportune times in this one. Missouri has struggled under Pinkel against top-shelf offensive teams. The Tigers are on a 1-8 ATS slide against offenses that average at least 5.9 yards per play. Nebraska's offense fits the bill. The Huskers dominated this series for decades before the Bill Callahan-era. Bo Pelini lost in Lincoln by 35 points in his first season as HC two years ago, but clamped down on Mizzou in Columbia in a 27-12 win last year. I expect Pelini to have his Huskers ready to atone for their relatively spotty home play of late. I'm laying the points with Nebraska on Saturday.
Jim Feist
San Jose St vs. New Mexico St
Play: Under 47
WAC battle of the inept offenses. San Jose State (1-7 SU/3-3 ATS) has an anemic offense veraging 11 points and 240 total yards. Senior QB Jordan La Secla (4 TDs, 8 INTs) has little to work with outside of senior RB Lamon Muldrow. They squeezed out a 16-11 win over Southern Utah, despite only 250 total yards, and had a 14-13 loss at home to UC Davis. San Jose is 4-2 under the total. New Mexico State (1-6 SU/2-5 ATS) is terrible under coach Dewayne Walker, using 3 QBs and the offense is just awful, averaging 13 points. Their top two rushers average 3.3 ypc or less. Play New Mexico State/San Jose State Under the total.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan Wolverines -3
Off back-to-back losses, a bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Michigan. I expect the Wolverines to put their off week to good use with a road win in Happy Valley today. While Michigan has won 10 of the last 15, including 5 of the last 7 on the road, in this series, this current group of Wolverines just remember the 2 embarrassing losses they have endured to Penn State the last 2 seasons. Using those losses as motivation, Michigan will be ready to go today. Penn State has taken a step back on both sides of the football, while Michigan has taken a step forward. I just don't see the Nittany Lions being able to get enough stops against an explosive Michigan offense averaging 36 ppg. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and I'm fading them in this role today. Take Michigan.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kentucky Wildcats +6
Right away, you have to like the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive straight up wins, are 85-35 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is already 8-2 ATS this year.
Kentucky isn't getting the respect it deserves here. We're talking about a team that took Auburn down to the wire and defeated South Carolina. Plus, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Mississippi State. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Kentucky's offense hasn't been tamed in its last 4 SEC games, scoring at least 31 points in each, and Mississippi State won't be able to shut Randall Cobb and company down either. This proves problematic for the Bulldogs, as they have been held to 14 of fewer points in 3 of 4 SEC contests. Take the points with Kentucky.