Dennis Macklin
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Play: Arkansas Razorbacks -20½
QB Ryan Mallett is reportedly healthy after battling concussion and shoulder problems. He's avgg 297 ypg with a 15-7 TD/Int ration which means he'll be able to do some business against the Commodores 90th ranked pass defense. Homies also starting to rush the ball with success which should open things up for the aerial assault. Vandy wears down in the second half and has been outscored by 68 points in the second half of their last four losses. Arkansas names the score.
EZWINNERS
Utah Utes -7
The Utah Utes have been on an amazing run against the spread and I look for it to continue in this match up with Air Force. These teams have been involved in some high scoring games recently and Utah has won four out of the last five meetings but only by an average of five points per game with none of the games being decided by more than a touchdown. This is also a dangerous spot for the undefeated Utes who have a huge game with undefeated TCU coming up next week and were almost upset by New Mexico in this expect same spot in 2008. That being said, I believe that this is a much better and more focused Utah team. The Utes defense has done very well against the option game of Air Force as they have held the Falcons to only two yards per carry in their last two trips to Falcon Stadium. The Falcons are on an 0-5 run against the spread while the Utes have covered the spread in nine straight games. Look for these streaks to continue. Lay the points.
Rocketman
Idaho vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -15
Hawaii -15 Idaho comes in with a 4-3 overall record this year while Hawaii is 6-2 on the season. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in all games this year. Hawaii is 6-1 ATS this year when playing on Saturday. Hawaii is 8-2 ATS last 3 years after 2 or more consecutive wins. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS at home this year. Idaho is allowing 33.7 points per game on the road this year. Hawaii is scoring 38.5 points per game overall this year and 42.5 points per game at home this season. Hawaii is 5-1 SU and ATS overall vs Idaho since 1992 including 3-0 SU and ATS at home vs Idaho since 1992. We'll recommend a small play on Hawaii tonight!
Tom Stryker
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Play: Ohio State Buckeyes -25½
This is going to be a tough spot for a struggling Minnesota team. Defensively, the Golden Gophers are allowing 31.9 points and 406.4 yards per game this season and they've been extremely vulnerable against the run. Opponents are averaging 194.1 yards per game on the ground against Minny. That plays right into one of Ohio State's strengths offensively. The Buckeyes are posting an average of 205.4 yards per game overland and they'll have no trouble at all picking up chunks of real estate and points against this Swiss cheese Gophers stop unit. Let's take a look inside the numbers.
As a Big 10 guest, the Buckeyes have been a solid investment notching a rewarding 19-2 SU and 15-5-1 ATS record in their last 21 tries. Equally impressive, against Minnesota, State has cruised to a controlling 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS record in the last 23 meetings including a stunning 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS provided OSU does not check in off two or more straight up wins.
With a 7-19 SU and 9-13-2 ATS mark in its last 26 games, Minnesota isn't likely to throw a scare into anyone. This team trend slips down to a shocking 3-13 SU and 4-11 ATS record provided the Golden Gophers enter off a conference affair. Minny hasn't done well as a Big 10 home dog either recording a stunning 4-31 SU and 13-20-2 ATS mark in its last 35 tries including just 4-9-1 ATS in this role shagging +10 or more.
As a big favorite laying -24 or more, OSU has covered five straight winning by margins of 45, 38, 36, 53 and 28 points respectively. With a bye on deck, the Buckeyes can give the Golden Gophers their complete attention. That spells bad news for Minnesota. Take Ohio State.
Washington State Cougars vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Play: Arizona State Sun Devils -21
Washington State has quietly covered four in a row and five of its last six. The Cougars are grabbing nearly three touchdowns here and the knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points. I wouldn’t do that if I were you. Arizona State applies to a profitable college system of mine that has been money-in-the-bank and this technical gem demands our respect.
Since 1980, home favorites priced at -20 or more are a juicy 79-47-2 ATS provided they got blown out by 20 points or more in their last game. This situation actually does much better from game four of the season out – now 67-33-2 ATS for 67.0 percent. The Sun Devils (-21) dropped their last contest by 30 points at California and they fit this situation perfectly.
ASU has played well in this series lately notching a solid 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS record in its last 21 meetings with WSU. After road wars against Oregon State, Washington and Cal, the Sun Devils will be elated to be back home too. ASU closes with three of its last five battles in Tempe and I expect the Devils to make a run late.
Finally, as a home favorite of -11’ or more, Arizona State has been at its best posting a profitable 28-11-1 ATS record including a stunning 14-3 ATS in conference play. In comparison Washington State has struggled on foreign soil notching a weak 1-21 SU and 9-13 ATS record including a nasty 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.
After whipping Portland and Northern Arizona inside Sun Devil Stadium back in early September, ASU slipped in its last home game against a good Oregon team. It’s time for head coach Dennis Erickson’s troops to crank things up a notch here. The Cougars pointspread roll is about to come to an abrupt end. Take Arizona St.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Utes -7
No way Utah slips up before a showdown with TCU next week that will likely determined the MWC title. The Utes are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Utah.
Jack Jones
Ohio State -25
The Minnesota Gophers are done for. They have a new head coach now after Tim Brewster was fired, and their season is ultimately lost. Minnesota is 1-7 this season, so it's not like they have a chance of coming back and making a bowl game. This team has nothing to play for, while Ohio State is 7-1 and has plenty left to play for.
Ohio State beat Minnesota 38-7 last year for a 31-point victory. I see no reason they don't win this game by at least 4 touchdowns tonight. Ohio State is 16-5 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
Jimmy Moore
Baylor @ Texas
Pick: Texas -7
The Longhorns were embarrassed by their SU loss to Iowa State last week so you know that it was a very hard week of practice for them. They will be ready to take out their frustrations on someone and Baylor is the perfect fodder for them. The Bears are having a good season for sure but their defense is getting worse each week and they may be a little less motivated since they already have qualified for a bowl game.
OC DOOLEY
Auburn -7
It was one week ago when my personal top-rated wager went “against” a favored squad that had 5 different offensive linemen banged up as they ended up losing outright in front of the home fans. The particular pick is similar as Mississippi is banged-up across the offensive line which I will detail later in this analysis segment. Of course it is dangerous to side with a #1 ranked BCS contingent as we have already seen three top-ranked squads suffer upset losses. But the fact of the matter is that Auburn still has something to prove as this will be only their 3rd true road affair of the season. Certainly the Tigers have a quarterback worthy of Heisman chatter as Cam Newton actually has a chance to become just the second player in Division I history to both pass-and-rush for 20 touchdowns in the same season. The only player to ever achieve that was Tim Tebow back in 2007 was he snared the Heisman Trophy. It is ironic that Newton has a chance to reach his historic level because he used to be a signal-caller at Florida before becoming involved with acquiring a stolen computer. After being banished from Division I for a short time, Newton had a choice of which college to attend and he actually leaned towards Mississippi State whose current head coach used to be Florida’s offensive coordinator. But it was Newton’s father who suggested Auburn primarily because the Tigers had a VETERAN offensive line that was returning 4 starters. Thus we have another ironic twist this evening as Newton is visiting the state of Mississippi that he ultimately turned down. We also have a mental battle between current Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt who reportedly clashed when Malzahn was hired to run his offense back in 2006. Ever since Nutt has been a head coach in the Southeast Conference SIX different times his teams have finished the late part of the schedule with either a 4-1 or 5-0 mark. In addition Nutt has beaten 21 different “ranked” opponents in league play, 14 times as an underdog. In yet another ironic twist Mississippi is also starting a quarterback who got into trouble and was kicked out of a major college program. Out of either respect for Houston Nutt or due to three weeks of upsets, the line on tonight’s game has actually “dropped” from the opening figure (8’ points) so we have a BCS number-one at a slight value and I am taking advantage. As mentioned at the top of this analysis segment Ole Miss is dealing with INJURIES to their offensive line as a pair of them have been ruled OUT of tonight’s game with ankle injuries. To make matters even worse Ole Miss center A.J. Hawkins has been slowed with a shoulder problem and is not 100%. On the other side of the football Rebels defensive back Damien Jackson (knee) is listed as doubtful. If not for the exploits of Cam Newton, there would be Heisman talk at Auburn surrounding defensive tackle Nick Fairley who leads the entire Southeast Conference with 17 “tackles for loss”. Even though the Auburn defense was banged up last Saturday, they still were able to control the then undefeated LSU Tigers which was impressive. In the past three years Auburn is an unscathed 6-0 ATS following a game where the offense generated 300+ yards on the ground. Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?
SPORTS WAGERS
Oklahoma City -6 over DETROIT
There are contenders, teams on the rise, and bottom feeders. The Oklahoma City Thunder have made the transition from team on the rise to bona-fide contenders and with that transformation comes the responsibility to smash bottom feeder teams like the Pistons. The Pistons opened the season at home and lost to the horrendous New Jersey Nets, a team that went 12-70 last year, despite leading 95-88 with less than two minutes to play. It seems that the public still hasn’t caught on to the fact that Detroit was a 27-win team last season whose marquee signing in the offseason was washed up Tracy McGrady. This is a team that still starts 36-year-old Ben Wallace at center and doesn’t have a legitimate PG on the roster. It’s a complete mess one through 12 and bettors should be very wary of trusting this team with their money this year. Oklahoma City won and covered easily against a good Bulls team on Wednesday and there’s no reason they shouldn’t take care of business tonight. Conventional wisdom says that laying points on the road in any sport isn’t the best of ideas, but the talent and motivation disparity tonight makes this a must play. Oklahoma City needs to prove to other title contenders that it doesn’t take nights off against weak opponents. Other contenders pay attention to games like this – Dallas, San Antonio, Portland, Miami all crushed their weaker opponents Wednesday night. The Thunder players and coaching staff are undoubtedly aware of those results and should make the same statement tonight. Play: Oklahoma City –6 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
ST. LOUIS -½ -1.20 over Atlanta
Seldom will you see us laying pucks and juice but this one warrants it. First, Andrej Pavelec will make his first start of the year in goal for the Thrashers and one has to figure him to be less sharp than most goaltenders. Secondly, the Thrashers played last night at home against the Sabres and won it in OT after allowing the tying goal with seven seconds remaining. This is the Thrashers third game in four nights and fourth game this week. Furthermore, the Thrashers have allowed four goals or more in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, the Blue Notes can’t wait to get back on the ice. They’re well rested, they’re playing as good as anyone and this arena is quickly becoming one of the more difficult buildings in the league to win at. Defensively, the Blues are rock solid and Halak in net makes them even better. In fact, St, Louis has allowed just two goals against over its last three games and two of those games were against Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Blue Notes are excited and so are the fans and so they should be. This team is playoff bound and they’re going to be a very tough out once they get there. Play: St. Louis -½ -1.20 (Risking 2.40 units to win 2).
Nashville +1.40 over DETROIT
The Preds own one of the best records in the league thus far and the beauty of this wager is that Nashville doesn’t have to outplay the Wings in order to beat them. There’s no reason whatsoever for either team to be flat, as this is a hated rivalry for sure. What stands out is that Pekka Rinne is outstanding and beyond while Chris Osgood is a huge liability. That alone makes this gamble a good one. Goaltenders can win games on their own in this league and that’s all there is to it. Having said that, the Preds can also come in here and play just as good or better than the Detroit. The Red Wings are just not that strong in its own end and they’ve allowed four goals against in two straight games. Oh, and BTW, the Preds are 3-0 on the road this season. Play: Nashville +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.25 over PHOENIX
This is about as difficult a spot for the Coyotes as they come. First, they started the year overseas with two games against the Bruins before returning home to play the Red Wings. They hit the road again for one game before and subsequently played its next two at home. Then it was on the road again for a three-game trip through Montreal, Ottawa and Detroit. They now return home after that three-game excursion on the East Coast and this will be the Coyotes fifth game in seven days. In addition to that, they’ll feel unappreciated when less than 7000 fans will sit in a three-quarter empty arena. How can they get excited or energized by that? The Bolts have alternated wins and losses over its last seven games and this is the first leg of a four-game trip. Coaches stress the importance of that first game of a trip, as it sets the tone for the remainder. The Lightning have won three of its four road games and this assignment is not only winnable but it’s an extremely favorable one too. There’s no confirmation yet as to who’s in net for the Bolts but Mike Smith is a poor OT goaltender and thus, we’ll play this one in regulation only. Play: Tampa Bay +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
USC +7 over Oregon
8:00 PM EST. Yeah, the Ducks are considered to be among the elite teams in the college game. They’re incredibly tough to beat at home but get this team on the road and it’s a whole different story. They’ve put up some sick offensive numbers and it seems like they score 60 points every week. However, this isn’t Tennessee, Arizona St, New Mexico, UCLA or Portland St they’ll be facing. The Ducks have played just three road games this season and all three teams they played (Tennessee, Washington St and Arizona St) all ran the ball on Oregon with ease. They were fortunate to even beat Arizona St and even its home win over Stanford is a little misleading. The Trojans are not Bowl eligible and thus, this is their Bowl game. They’re tremendously talented and probably have more NFL talent than any team in the nation. The Trojans are also a great running team and that spells trouble for the Ducks. The Ducks two-minute offense that they employ all game will not fool USC. They can get away with that stuff in Eugene against weaker foes but not this one. The Trojans are the better team, especially on defense and now the Ducks are going to come in here and give away seven points to a team of this caliber in USC’s biggest game of the season? Not on this watch. Trojans outright. Play: #194 USC +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Winnipeg +8½ over EDMONTON
The Eskies come in as the hottest team the in the CFL with four wins in five games and everything that new general manager Eric Tillman is doing is turning to gold. Both teams are without its starting QB and the Bombers are down to its third or fourth of fifth stringer in Joey Elliott. The Eskimos will go to second stringer, Jared Zabransky. Edge to Edmonton. In addition, the Bombers are out and will be playing for nothing but pride while the Eskies will attempt to improve its playoff position. So, yeah, it looks like a no-brainer in Edmonton’s favor but not so fast. The Eskies have been in the underdog role pretty much all year after its putrid start to the season. Now they’re being asked to spot significant points to a squad that has no pressure on them whatsoever and that’s been as pesky and difficult to beat as any team in the league. Winnipeg’s W/L record does not reflect that but a close look reveals that they’ve been very close and probably should’ve won at least half of their games. The Bombers special teams and defense is one of the top three in the league and while they’re playing for nothing they surely would love to make life difficult for the home side. The situation and recent results has this number inflated. Play: Winnipeg +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
San Francisco +1.54 over TEXAS
The Giants are doing everything better than the Rangers and when you throw in the experience factor, the way they execute in close games and the big managerial edge, how can you not take this tag? Nobody on Texas has stepped up and besides being in a big hole you might see them individually pressing a bit. Then there’s the bullpen, where nobody wants to hear his name called. The Rangers bullpen has been miserable, allowing 11 ER in 4.1 IP. Colby Lewis has come a long way since leaving Hiroshima at the end of last season. He will try to right the Rangers' ship here and outside of Cliff Lee, he's the Rangers best hope. His 1.45 ERA in the playoffs is a bit deceiving--fueled by a 24% hit rate and 87% strand rate. He's walked 11 hitters in 18.2 innings (although he has struck out 18). A ton of pressure his on his shoulders because if he loses this one the Series is over. Jonathan Sanchez grew into his arm in 2010, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.94 xERA. He's pitched well in the playoffs, too, with a 2.93 ERA. However, in his last start (Game 6 of the NLCS), he lasted but two innings, allowing three hits, two walks, and two runs. He got the quick hook from manager Bruce Bochy as he just didn't look right--he threw 50 pitches to the 12 hitters he faced, and only 24 of them were for strikes (48%). That was a far cry from the 64% of pitches he threw for strikes in Game 2 of the series and that’s one of the reasons why Bochy is so much better than Ron Washington. Washington has no clue when to pull his guy or what line-up to go with. Anyway, Sanchez has wicked stuff and in fact, he was the toughest pitcher in the majors to get a hit off of. His BAA this season was .204 and in the postseason it’s even lower at .182. He also had 205 K’s in 193 IP. The knock on Sanchez is his control. If he’s throwing strikes he’s as tough as they come. You can expect the Rangers to take some early pitches to see if Sanchez is on or off but that’s not a given either. Washington might have them go up there swinging. The Rangers had only four hits in Game 2 and never mounted a serious threat in the game. Game 3 should see a couple of changes: Jeff Francouer (.805 vs. LHP) should get the start in RF, and Bengie Molina (.762 OPS vs. LHP) would be the logical choice at catcher. Jeff Francoeur has a career .268 OPS against Sanchez in 14 PA, although manager Ron Washington has to be looking for a way to shake up the lineup anyway, so he's likely to start. Jorge Cantu, who has 44-point higher OPS vs LHP, could replace Moreland at 1B, but Moreland has been one of the bright spots for the Rangers. Vladimir Guerrero is expected to resume his DH role. The Giants' hitter with the worst split against RHP is Cody Ross, who is not coming out of the lineup. Pablo Sandoval could step in for Renteria but Bochy will likely stand with the lineup that's produced 20 runs in two games. Think 20 runs in two games is unlikely for the Giants? This is the fifth time this season they've done it. Play: San Francisco +1.54 (Risking 2 units).
Scott Rickenbach
Utah at Air Force
Play: Air Force
After getting crushed by TCU ? just as nearly every Horned Frogs opponent does ? the Falcons are no doubt happy to be back home and hosting anybody but TCU in this one! That said, we see fantastic home dog value with Air Force in this one. Utah is 6-0-1 ATS this season but other than the one push (versus Pittsburgh on opening night) the Utes really haven?t played anyone of any consequence. Utah has faced many weak teams and that has helped them start their season with this amazing ATS run. All good things must come to an end and you know there is going to be some over-adjustment to the lines for Utah as a result of their insane ATS start to the season. That said, we do feel that the installment of the Utes here as 7 point road chalk is absolutely over-inflated.
Before getting crushed at TCU, Air Force was 5-2 on the season and their two losses came by a TOTAL of just five points! Again, Texas Christian is in an elite class so let?s not put too much weight into that one bad loss. Instead, focus on how difficult the Falcons unique offensive attack is to stop and note that the Utes also are in a look-ahead spot here. That?s because Utah is undefeated on the season and they?ve got TCU on deck. This is the perfect spot where situational edges play a huge role in the outcome and we feel the underdog Falcons have a great shot at the upset and, of course, that means the seven points are a huge value. Consider a small play on Air Force plus the big points on Saturday Night.
Hollywood Sports
Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
The Nuggets (1-1) come off a 101-95 loss in New Orleans last night and now must play this game in back-to-back days. Denver was awful in this situation last season with their 2-8-1 ATS mark in their last eleven games played without rest. The fact that Carmelo Anthony has let it leak that he wants out of Denver does not help the morale of this team either. Houston (0-2) returns home for their first game of the season after dropping their first two games on the road. With Yao Ming back in the mix, they should earn their first win of the season by a comfortable margin. Lay the points with the Rockets.
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco at TEXAS -1.5
For my comp winner, the Rangers are back home for Game 3 of the World Series and with them much more comfortable playing with the DH and in their home stadium, look for big things from this lineup tonight. That’s why the smart money is on the Rangers on the runline as they’ll win it by two runs at least.
At home, they have scored 18 runs in their last three playoff games, finishing off the Yankees with a 6-1 victory back on October 22. The Rangers hit .286 at home and went 53-33 while the Giants hit just .249 on the road.
On the mound for Texas is right-hander Colby Lewis (14-13, 3.52 ERA) who pitched that clincher against the Yankees, allowing just one run on three hits over eight innings and struck out 7 as the Rangers won the A.L. pennant.
Lefty Jonathan Sanchez goes for the giants and he got hit hard by the Phillies, including a two-inning outing back on Oct. 23 when he gave up two runs in two innings.
When Lewis gets seven days or more off, the Rangers are 4-0 in his next start, plus they are on streaks of 13-3 in interleague games, 5-1 in interleague home games, 6-2 after a loss and 7-2 against southpaws.
The bats will get going to the Rangers today and I’m expecting some early run production to get them a lead so Lewis can pitch with a lead and be more aggressive. Texas is not going to go down without a fight and the Rangers will get this one by at least two runs.
The play that will deliver smart money today is on the Rangers on the Runline.
3♦ TEXAS -1.5
Michael Cannon
San Francisco at TEXAS
Take the over in Game 3 of the World Series tonight.
The first two games of this series soared past the posted total, which is a surprise considering the Game 1 matchup of Cliff Lee versus Tim Lincecum. San Francisco has scored 20 runs in winning the first two games and now we head to an American League park where the DH will be in use.
Yes, that’s right, more opportunities for offense.
The Giants are locked in at the plate like no other right now and they get the added benefit of a DH.
Jonathan Sanchez will start for San Francisco and he has good stuff, but is also inconsistent and tends to struggle with his command.
I fully expect the Rangers to make some noise offensively in their home park down 0-2 in the series.
On top of that, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is a known hitter’s park.
I can easily see a 5-4 or 6-4 final here.
That’s all we need for this one to cash on the over.
Take the over in Game 3 tonight.
3♦ OVER
Michael Cannon
Denver at HOUSTON (-5)
Take the Rockets as the home chalk over the Nuggets.
Denver obviously has some distractions with the Carmelo Anthony situation, but on top of that all the intangibles point to the Rockets in this matchup.
The Nuggets played last night and were horrible last season in the second of back-to-back games, going 6-15 ATS. They are obviously an older team and don’t respond well when playing without rest.
Houston had great success at home against Denver, winning five of the last six SU and going 4-2 ATS.
The Rockets have had a few days off and most likely used that time to gameplan for this matchup and to work on their team defense.
Take the Rockets minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Baylor at TEXAS (-7')
Today's free play is on the Texas Longhorns over Baylor. We are getting great line value in the boys from Austin today because of last week's collapse combined with Baylor's solid offensive play of late. Think about it... what was Texas favored by last week against Iowa State? They were favored by more than 20 points and lost the game SU. Same thing in the UCLA game.
Vegas is completely helpless here and they had to put out a line they thought would draw equal money. Had the 'horns beaten Iowa State last week the line would have opened at Texas -14 or more. That's just what happens when you're the defending National Runners Up. So I think Texas is the right side here today.
No disrespect to the Baylor Bears and what they've been able to accomplish... it's quite amazing when you think about it. QB Robert Griffin is a dual-threat signal-caller who has plenty of weapons to help him out. But this could be the best, most-athletic defense they've seen all season. Just ask Nebraska. Baylor's offense is their strength, yet I don't think they're going to move the ball up and down the field as they have done every week.
As for the Bears defense... well, in a word it sucks. Baylor allowed Colorado to score 25 points two weeks ago and followed that up by allowing 42 to Kansas State last week. It's not like they don't have athletes on that side of the ball, I just don't believe they put as much emphasis on stopping anyone, and as bad as Texas's defense has been, they will thrive off playing a soft defense like the one Baylor has.
Just when you think they're down and out, they always surprise... just ask Nebraska. Texas has beaten Baylor by an average of nearly 30 PPG over the past 10 meetings and the closest game in that span was a 31-10 Texas win. The Horns own the Bears and they'll prove it again today.
5♦ TEXAS
Karl Garrett
Stanford (-7) at WASHINGTON
The linemakers have made it tough on the Cardinal of late, as Stanford has failed their last 3 against the spread, but they have been a double-digit favorite in their last pair of wins and tonight's number is a tad lower.
Washington's Jake Locker is stilled slowed by that thigh bruise, and his lack of mobility has made it easier for other teams to scheme against the Huskies. That and the fact their defense is among the worst in the nation.
Stanford has been able to win the last pair, and 4 of the last 5 overall in this series, and they have also covered their last 3 trips to the Emerald City.
The Cardinal also on a 4-1 spread run their last 5 away games. G-Man all over Stanford to cover this number tonight.
4♦ STANFORD
Chuck O'Brien
Washington St. (+21) at ARIZONA ST.
How does a team that’s lost four of its last five games, including the most recent one by 33 points, be THIS big of a favorite against anyone? Seriously, Arizona State’s three wins this year came against two non-FBS teams (Portland State and Northern Arizona) and overrated Washington (24-14 road victory). Big deal. And with last Saturday’s embarrassing 50-17 loss at Cal as a three-point road underdog, the Sun Devils are now 1-9 in their last 10 conference games, with the only win coming against Washington.
Yet they’re laying more than three touchdowns today? Yes, I know, Washington State (1-7) is the worst team in the Pac-10 and has been one of the worst teams in the nation the last three years. But the Cougars have at least been putting up a fight this month. Since ending September by getting clobbered 50-16 by USC at home, Washington State has lost at UCLA (42-28), to Oregon at home (43-23), to Arizona at home (24-7) and at Stanford (38-28). The Cougars covered massive pointspreads in all four games, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six.
Arizona State is riding a six-game winning streak against Wazu, but the Cougs have gotten the cash each of the last three years (all as an underdog). Also, the Sun Devils’ biggest Pac-10 win the last two years was by 13 points (at Washington State a year ago).
This season has spiraled downhill quickly for Arizona State, and after last week’s ugly loss at Cal, I’d be surprised if the players bring any energy to this game against an opponent that’s 1-7. At the same time, Washington State has been fighting to the finish all year, as they proved again last week when they outscored Stanford 21-7 in the fourth quarter to make a 31-7 game a more respectable 38-28 final.
4♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Chris Jordan
Utah (-7) at AIR FORCE
I am looking ahead to Saturday for you with my complimentary play, and I like Utah in Mountain West play against overrated Air Force in a 7:30 p.m. kick.
Talk about a rough stretch, the Falcons went to San Diego two weeks ago to play a scrappy San Diego State one week before having to play TCU. the lookahead factor took over, as the Aztecs won 27-25.
Last week, with my 1,000♦ Mountain West Game of the Year, TCU bounced the Falcons back Colorado Springs, demolishing them 38-7.
Nearly deflated, the Falcons now get the eighth-ranked Utah Utes, who are 7-0 after last week's 59-6 thrashing of Colorado State. It was the second straight week the Utes held an opponent to six points.
Utah has now won six in a row by double digits, an average margin of 40 points per win. The Utes lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 47.7 points per game, and is led by quarterback Jordan Wynn, who has completed 69.8 percent of 139 passes for 1,283 yards and 12 touchdowns versus a mere five interceptions.
Now I know that TCU is right around the corner for the Utes, and then it's a trip to South Bend a week later, but the Utes know better than to look past Air Force on the road.
In fact, I believe the Utes will use running backs Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata a bit more, since the Falcons' defense has allowed 582 yards on the ground in the last two games.
All the focus is right here, on this game in Colorado Springs against the Falcons. Play Utah and lay the chalk here.
Note: The line I see on this game is -7' points, and I suggest you buy the half point down to a flat -7 points. If your book already has a -7, go ahead and buy the point spread down to -6' points.
2♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Oregon at SOUTHERN CAL (+7)
Oregon is walking into a dangerous spot this Saturday night in Los Angeles, as the USC Trojans have had an extra week to prepare for this showdown with the high-octane Ducks.
Oregon can put the points on the board that is for sure, but let's remember that this game is being played on the road, and on grass which will slow the Quack Attack done just a beat.
This is the Trojans bowl game for all intents and purposes, as USC is on post season banishment. Matt Barkley has looked sharp at QB for Lane Kiffin's team as USC tuned up the Cal Golden Bears pretty good their last time on field.
This will be the first time since 2001 that the Trojans will be installed as the home underdog - a span of 51 games - and you can assume during their bye week that has been drilled into their heads.
USC may not have enough to get the outright, but I believe they have enough to give the Ducks a good scare on the night before Halloween.
Take the Trojans plus the points.
1♦ USC
Stephen Nover
Oregon at SOUTHERN CAL (+6')
The Trojans lost that game to Stanford on a last-second field goal but still covered the spread. If it weren't for that two-point road loss to Stanford and a one-point loss to Washington, also on a field goal at the gun, the Trojans would be unbeaten and this spread would be much tighter.
There's a lot of pressure on Oregon these days being No. 1 and traveling to USC. The Trojans haven't been a home 'dog since 2001.
USC isn't eligible for a bowl game. So this is going to be its bowl game. The Trojans were embarrassed by Oregon on the road last year, 47-20. That was their most lopsided loss since 1997. That loss has not been forgotten.
Oregon has a great offense, but keep in mind that a lot of the Ducks' fancy statistics are skewed because of lopsided victories against winless New Mexico (72-0) and Portland State (69-0), a non board-team.
The Trojans can keep pace with any team offensively. The Pac-10 is rich in quarterbacks this season. USC's Matt Barkley doesn't take a backseat to any of them. He threw for 352 yards and a Trojan record five touchdowns in USC's last game, a 48-14 win against California.
The Trojans were idle last week. Their pass defense has been brutal this season, but the extra week definitely will come in handy.
This may be Oregon's finest team, but the Trojans aren't exactly devoid of talent either. They have beaten the Ducks in eight of their last 10 home games and are 12-6 ATS versus Top-10 teams.
2♦ SOUTHERN CAL