Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 31,2009

Vegas Sports Informer

Take Boston College (-5) over Central Michigan

Boston College is playing the MAC Conference Saturday night and the Eagles are coming off a close loss to Notre Dame last Saturday. Boston College is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and the Eagles are 5-1 ATS against non-conference games. I know that Central Michigan has some steam but I think that this is a big step up in class from the sad-sack teams that they have been beating recently. The Eagles should roll.

Bryan Leonard

Cincinnati at Syracuse

Different quarterback and same result for the Bearcats who played without Tony Pike and still won and covered against the Cardinals. Zach Collaros got his first career start and was 15 for 17 in an easy 41-10 win hosting Louisville. This Cincinnati offense has now used four different signal callers this year with every one having solid success. The Bearcats have outgained every opponent this season by yards per play including an 8.2 to 4.2 advantage last week. They also have one of if not the most explosive offense in the nation putting up 40.7 points per game despite facing just 74 third down situations. They score quick and often and they should have little problem denting a Syracuse team they have beaten by 20, 21 and 14 points the past three seasons.

Syracuse is off a game they had to have last week a 28-14 victory over Akron. But they only outgained the Zips 5.3 to 3.9 yards per play. In fact, that's just the second team they have beaten in yards per play all season. The Orangemen have had a terrible problem all season long converting third downs, and it's been even worse the past four games. They are just 13 of 49 over that span and now they must face the high pressure turnover machine which is the Cincinnati defense.

The Bearcats won going away last week yet they dropped to 8th place in the BCS standings. We look for Brian Kelly to run up the score if possible as opposed to last week when he cleared the bench early. With four quarterbacks having experience this is a team that can reload with the best of them. History repeats itself as Cincinnati wins this one by three touchdowns or more.

PLAY CINCINNATI

Terron Chapman

USC vs. Oregon
Play: USC -3

In the Trojans last visit to Eugene, the Ducks took advantage of an inexperienced Mark Sanchez en route to a 24-17 upset win. If the Ducks plan on pulling the upset Saturday, they’ll have to do the same to quarterback Matt Barkley as the Trojans pay a visit to Autzen Stadium Saturday evening for a meeting of PAC-10 foes.

Oregon has rebounded from a loss in the opener to Boise St, to reel off six straight wins. They’ve done it mostly with defense. The Ducks defense is allowing just 4.1 ypp, allowing opponents to complete just 35% of their third downs. The Oregon defense will have to be in top form against a Trojan offense that is one of the most efficient in the country. Barkley has showed more poise than Sanchez did at this point his career, and he leads an offense averaging 7.0 ypp. They’re averaging 5.4 ypra. The one thing that is concerning is their inconsistency on third down, converting just 35% of the time. However, they make up for it with big plays.

The Ducks offense will try to establish the run at home which will be hard to do against this Trojan defense, which allows just 2.4 ypra. Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli struggled against the Trojan defense last year in Los Angeles. He’ll be asked to make plays Saturday, but he should be cautious of safety Taylor Mays lurking in the secondary. The Ducks offense won’t scare the Trojans and I’m not sure if they can afford to lean on their defense much longer.

Head coach Chip Kelley has done a good job thus far at Oregon, but this is his first game in the rivalry. The Trojans got a scare last week and I expect coach Pete Carroll to have his team ready to play, fully aware of their last visit there. Look for the Trojans to have just too much in the end for the host, lay the points. Play on the USC Trojans for 1 unit.

Matt Fargo

Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -6

Texas A&M snapped its three-game losing skid with a win at Texas Tech on Saturday, its first win away from home this season. It came into that game with losses of 28 and 48 points away from home so a victory like that is a huge confidence builder. The Aggies are 3-1 at home with the lone setback coming in their last game at Kyle Field, a five-point defeat against Oklahoma St. who is once again looking like a title contender in the Big XII. Texas A&M has outgained five of its seven opponents this season and it catches a really good spot on Saturday. The Cyclones are coming off a huge win in Lincoln against the Huskers on Saturday, their first win there since 1977. While it was a big win for Iowa St., it was more of a bad loss for Nebraska as it gift-wrapped the victory by turning the ball over eight times, four of which took place inside the Iowa St. five-yard line. No team is going to win with errors like that. That game is what is providing some excellent value as if that game had played out the way it should have, and that means an Iowa St. loss, this number would definitely be sitting at double-digits. That was the first Iowa St. road win in the conference since 2005 so we should not expect to see another big effort this week. The Iowa St. defense allowed just seven points but again, it was aided by turnovers. The total defense is ranked 82nd in the nation, allowing 383.6 ypg and it has been equally bad against the run and the pass. That is not good against a team like the Aggies that can get it done in both facets of the game on offense. Texas A&M is third in the country in total offense, averaging 489.0 ypg and that tops in the Big XII which says a lot based on all of the potent offenses within the conference. The Aggies defense is an issue as they are ranked 98th in the nation overall and 104th in scoring defense, yielding 32.9 ppg. Against most teams within the Big XII, that would be an issue however that is not the case here. The Cyclones are 82nd in the country in scoring offense, averaging only 24.3 ppg which is good for just 10th in the conference. They do lead the conference in rushing offense, averaging a solid 204.3 ypg but that is on 4.8 ypc and that drops to 4.4 ypc on the road and in their last four games which is pretty average. Iowa St. rushes the ball nearly 60 percent of the time, 29th most in the country, because the passing game is very weak. The Cyclones are 97th in passing offense in the nation and second to last in the conference. Texas A&M has been lit up against good passing teams but that will be far from the case on Saturday. Texas A&M falls into two very solid situations. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against a team allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +16.1 ppg. Also, play against road underdogs that are coming off a conference win by three points or fewer going up against an opponent that is coming off a conference win by 21 points or more. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +20.6 ppg. Both of these situations are strong on the home team and the Aggies will come away with another big win this Saturday against the overachieving Cyclones. 3* Texas A&M Aggies

Tony George

Central Michigan vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -5.5

I like the Eagles in this game at home who recently in their last home game destroyed NC State last week hanging 52 points on them. It is apparent the early season woes of the Eagles on offense are gone. Central Michigan is a public darling in the betting world and have been a solid cover team, mainly because of QB LeFevour, who is an outright stud. But looking past the Michigan State upset early in the year, and looking deep into the Chippewa’s record on road games against BCS schools dating back over three years, they have been destroyed in those game. There is a large difference between the MAC and a BCS school out of the Big East. BC is a veteran team and past their QB and WR compliments, Central Michigan has over 50 true or redshirt freshman on their travel squad.

After a tough defeat to Notre Dame last week, BC comes home here with plenty to prove as ESPN picked up this game for national TV. One thing you look for this time of year in College football is scheduling, and this is the third straight road game for Central Michigan, and BC is hungry for a win here and have better players and more depth across the board. Boston College allows just 86 yards rushing at home this season and Cen. Michigan likes to run it, and they do it fairly well in the MAC, but this is a step up in talent they face. This line opened up at 4 and has been driven up to 5.5 for good reason. Getting BC at home off a loss and having Cen. Michigan on their third road game in a row, make BC a TD or better in this one in some wet weather Saturday.

Boston College 31 Central Michigan 21

Tom Stryker

Ohio vs. Ball State
Play: Ohio -6.5

After nine consecutive losses that included a pair of blemishes to Buffalo and Tulsa in 2008, Ball State finally erased its goose egg from the win column with a surprising 29-27 victory at Eastern Michigan last weekend. I sure hope the Cardinals enjoyed that “W” because they’ll be hard pressed to grab one here.

Ohio enters this MAC battle off an embarrassing home loss to Kent last Saturday and the Bobcats will be champing at the bit to get back on the winning track. That shouldn’t be a problem against a soft Redbirds defense. Ball State has allowed opponents an average of 30.0 points and 390.5 total yards per game. Of course, the Bobcats will most likely take the field against the Cardinals with a healthy quarterback. Right before last week’s home game against the Golden Flashes, starting senior QB Theo Scott got sick just prior to kickoff. Scott’s illness obviously affected the effectiveness of Ohio offense.

Technically speaking, this isn’t a great spot for BSU either. When priced as a home dog of +17 or less, the Cardinals have struggled notching a dismal 6-14 ATS record. Meanwhile, Ohio U has played extremely well on foreign soil posting a solid 14-6-1 ATS record in its last 21 lined games including a sterling 6-1 ATS in this role carrying a won/loss percentage of .600 or better.

In last week’s home loss to Kent, Ohio’s ground game was held to a total of minus nine yards rushing. That fact isn’t sitting too well with the Bobcats proud offensive line and you can bet your last dollar that there will be plenty of room to run against this porous Redbirds stop unit. Take Ohio!

Freddy Wills

Nebraska vs. Baylor
Take Baylor +13

Nebraska may be mad about last weeks embarassing loss to Iowa State, but that does not mean they will definitely win here on Saturday. Actually I think Baylor could win this game out right. Baylor might be struggling on offense right now without their star QB Griffith lost for the season, but their defense is holding it together relatively well. Nebraska has not been able to do anything on offense and that showed last week. News flash for Nebraska backers they have not faced any defenses worth a darn. Overall they have faced an average 79th ranked defense, and in my eyes are over rated. Zac Lee has to be better if he is starting here and he probably will be I guess it can't be any worse, but don't be surprised to see Baylor take some chances here at home. This team wants to win, and the passing game is capable still of putting some yards on Nebraska who has faced an average 61st ranked passing attack. Look for htis to be a low scoring game as the Corn Huskers are really struggling as of right now. As bad as Baylor has been this might be their one and only shot at a win so look for them to come out motivated.

Bob Wingerter

Cincinnati U vs. Syracuse
Play: Cincinnati U -15

There are high school teams in Ohio and Texas that could give Syracuse a game. Cincinnati’s defense is #1 in the nation in tackles for loss. Syracuse is 0-2 SU and ATS in Big East play, with QB Greg Paulus turning it over against defenses that aren’t pussy-footing around like the Big Ten teams that Syracuse looked competent against in their non-conference games. Cincinnati is ranked #5 and has doubters, so it wouldn’t hurt to put the pedal to the metal and keep it there. The program doesn’t get many chances to crack that level and Syracuse hasn’t done well against better-than-average teams in a long time. They have been getting exposed in conference. They sat their best wideout Mike Williams last week against Akron, as if Cincinnati doesn’t know who he is and that they like to go to him often.

Mike Rose

Western Kentucky @ North Texas
Play: Over 65

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. North Texas and Western Kentucky both have awful defenses, and the two teams have combined to cash ten straight 'over' tickets. On this 'over' binge, the Hilltoppers have allowed at least 30 points in each of their contests. North Texas has allowed at least 37 in each of its L/5. The Mean Green will use RB Lance Dunbar a ton on Saturday. Of late, he has been absolutely unstoppable. The sophomore has run for 635 yards and 11 TDs in his L/4 games combined. Dunbar has to be salivating at the prospects of rushing against a WKU defense that ranks 119th in the nation at 266.3 yards per game. Even though the Hilltoppers opened up the season by scoring just 27 points in their first three games combined, they've reached an average of 22.0 PPG since then. All of the numbers should be on the rise in another shootout this weekend.

Marc Lawrence

Central Michigan at Boston College
Prediction: Central Michigan

The Chippewas take their high-powered act to Chestnut Hills when the meet the Eagles at Alumni Stadium Saturday afternoon. The only defeat suffered by CMU this season was in their season opener at 24th ranked Arizona. They take to the road today with a sterling 12-1-2 ATS mark in away games off an away game. With Boston College a predictable 4-11-1 ATS in games after Notre Dame, including 1-7 ATS at home, the points become the play here today.

Teddy Covers

Michigan @ Illinois
PICK: Michigan -7

The Illini have looked very much like a team that has quit on their coach and their season over the course of the past month. Instead of competing for the Big 10 title, as some predicted prior to the season, they’ve lost every single lined game in 2009 by ten points or more. And, like most dismal football teams, the best place to bet against them is at home, where there is virtually no homefield edge at all, yet the pointspread still factors it into the equation.

Illinois is a train wreck on both sides of the football these days. Their inexperienced defense ranks dead last in the Big 10 in rush defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, sacks and tackles for loss. They rank next to last in turnovers forced. Defensive tackles Josh Brent and Corey Liuget have both been major disappointments. The linebacking corps is extremely young, constantly out of position. Their veteran safeties are injured; the youngsters replacing them are not good.

Offensively, Ron Zook is going to play ‘quarterback shuffle’ again this week, alternating senior Juice Williams and redshirt frosh Jacob Charest. Zook: “I don’t know what exact role Juice is going to be in. But there have been a lot of teams that have had two-quarterback systems. Is that the ideal thing? Probably not.” The Illini have scored a grand total of nine touchdowns in their six games against FBS opponents.

My clients and I cashed a ticket betting against Michigan last week, as Penn State’s powerful defense held Michigan to their season low in both yardage and points scored. Facing a weak defense that is short on both effort and execution, look for Michigan to hit the gaps hard and create big plays in both the running and passing games. Illinois’ sputtering offense simply doesn’t have the firepower to compete, or to rally from behind. 2* Take Michigan.

Sean Murphy

SMU @ Tulsa
PICK: Over 53

When these two teams hooked up last year, we saw 68 total points, yet the game still stayed under the posted total of 77.5. Two years ago the same matchup featured a total set at 71 points.

Here I feel that we're seeing an overreaction from the oddsmakers. Both offenses have fallen off slightly in 2009, but not enough to warrant a 25-point drop in terms of the total.

There is some concern that SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell will be unavailable on Saturday due to a shoulder injury. Last week we saw Kyle Padron step in and play well, throwing for 141 yards and a touchdown against a solid Houston defense. The Mustangs could only score 15 points in that game, but it wasn't for lack of trying. They rolled up 397 total yards of offense but were done in by three key fumbles.

I like the way SMU has ran the football over the last two weeks, churning out 6.5 and 5.8 yards per rush against Navy and Houston respectively. They should be able to keep it rolling against a Tulsa defense that really hasn't been tested by many physical ground games this season.

Tulsa has been held down offensively (by their standards) over the last two weeks, scoring just 21 and 24 points against Boise State and UTEP respectively. I expect to see them have a lot more success against an SMU defense that allows 31.7 points per game on 393.1 total yards per game. Note that the Golden Hurricane are averaging 38.5 points per game at home this season.

With a few extra days to prepare, Tulsa should have no trouble picking apart a porous Mustangs defense. QB G.J. Kinne has been outstanding this season, completing 60% of his passes for 1,488 yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions while also rushing for over 200 yards and three scores. He's precisely the type of dual-threat QB that can give SMU fits.

We saw these two teams combine to rack up over 1,000 yards of total offense in last year's matchup. Only four turnovers kept that game from getting into the 70s. We won't need nearly that type of output to cash this ticket, and that spells value. Take the over.

Larry Ness

NC State @ Florida St
PICK: Florida St -10

FSU rallied around beleaguered head coach Bowden, coming back from a 24-3 second-half deficit a week ago Thursday night at Chapel Hill. FSU's 30-27 win gives the Seminoles a 15-1-1 all-time mark against the Tar Heels, including 12-1 since joining the ACC. FSU is back home this Saturday, which may not be a comfort, as the Seminoles are 1-3 in Tallahassee in 2009, with that lone win coming 19-9 over Jacksonville St (trailed 9-7 before two TDs in the game's final 35 seconds 'saved' them!). That being said, FSU has to like its chances against the defenseless Wolfpack, who have opened 0-3 in the ACC while allowing 43.7 PPG. Opposing ACC quarterbacks have completed 70.0 percent of their passes in the three games, averaging 335.7 YPG with 10 TDs and just two INTs. That will suit Christian Ponder just fine, as the FSU quarterback is completing 70.0 percent on the season (12 TDs and just one INT), while averaging 364.7 YPG through the air in his last three contests. Neither team can run consistently with FSU averaging just 83.5 YPG on the ground without its 313-yard effort at BYU and NC St averaging 127.9 YPG (3.9 YPC). While Russell Wilson (58.7 percent but a 16-4 ratio) is a solid QB, FSU wins the 'battle of the QBs' in this one. When Chuck Amato left the FSU sidelines for the head coaching job at NC St, he beat his former mentor four of seven times but since his return to FSU, the Seminoles have beaten the Wolfpack 27-10 and 26-17. Lay it with FSU on Homecoming.

Dave Malinsky

Indiana @ Iowa
PICK: Indiana +17.5

Sports handicapping does not give us a chance to talk about “Lithopanes” much, but that is a great way to set this one up. Porcelain is a translucent substance, although many would not realize that. Because high quality porcelain allows for delicate work, we can often look at something that shows a clearly defined image in a certain light, and yet when the light is adjusted something entirely different appears. Think of an exquisite ancient Chinese tea cup, in which one might not even notice the bottom at all until the last sips have been taken, and it is held in a manner in which light showcases a unique image. And that is Iowa.

Yes, the Hawkeyes are undefeated, ranked in the Top 10, and getting all sorts of BCS mention. As such, the Hawkeyes appear to be a “player” in the eyes of the marketplace, and the oddsmakers are forced to adjust. But hold them to the light and what do we find? How about a well-coached team that is merely good, and not great, and while they bring the qualities of solid fundamentals and discipline under Kirk Ferentz that gives them edges late in close games, that does not correlate at all to generating big margins against weaker competition.

So what is the real Iowa image? An 8-0 opening that has been keyed by four wins of three points or less, two being home games vs. the likes of Northern Iowa and Arkansas State (remember that 4* ticket that we cashed with the latter, noting many of those Hawkeye problems), and another win in which they trailed Penn State in the fourth quarter until a barrage of turnovers transfixed the scoreboard. Iowa is 91st in the nation in Rushing, 69th in Passing Efficiency, 87th in Total Offense, 69th in Sacks Allowed and 86th in Scoring. That kind of offense does not make it easy to get margins, but what happens if they are not even as good as those numbers? That is the case this week.

As pedestrian as the offense has been, there have been major contributions from Dace Richardson up front, and the running of Adam Robinson (a team-leading 629 yards, and off of back-to-back games of over 100). Richardson is gone for the remainder of the season and Robinson may be as well. The Robinson injury compounds season-long problems that have seen three of the top five Iowa RB’s lost to injury, leaving precious little talent or experience at the position, with the best current option FR Brandon Wegher, who has only averaged 3.7 per carry on his 87 attempts. Ferentz sums it up well - "Our margin for error is pretty slim anyway. Now it just got a little bit slimmer because we just lost two good starting players from our team."

Not only are the Hawkeyes being over-rated based on their abilities, but they also start carrying a major target on their backs, and we believe that helps Indiana here. At another time the bitter 29-28 defeat the Hoosiers suffered at Northwestern last week (they led 28-3 in the second quarter) could have been a back-breaker. But now they get a cathartic target to aim at, on the very same week in which it has been announced that Bill Lynch will be kept through the remainder of his contract, and instead of being down we expect to find an underdog that brings plenty of hunger. It helps that they can also play. The Hoosiers are just a bounce away in those close losses vs. Michigan and Northwestern from being 6-2, with an offense that takes good care of the ball (only nine turnovers in seven lined games), buoyed by the return to health of Pete Saxon up front and top RB Darius Willis, and a veteran defense with playmakers up front in Greg Middleton and Jamie Kirlew (they are 26th in the nation in tackles for loss, a rarity from this program) that will keep things interesting in the trenches.

Look for Ferentz to put a focus on doing what the Hawkeyes do best – try to play smart and grind away, without taking the kind of risks needed to make big plays. That keeps this one firmly under a spread that has been set way too high.