Alex Smart
New Mexico St. @ Ohio St.
PICK: New Mexico St. +44.5
The New Mexico State Aggies will travel halfway across the country on Saturday afternoon for an early high noon kickoff against the #15 Ohio State Buckeyes. The oddsmakers have hung a huge number in this game, and even though the Aggies have been absolutely atrocious this year, there are plenty of great reasons to believe that they can stick in front of this number.
HC DeWayne Walker knows that his squad has very little chance of winning this game, but it has already pulled outright upsets against New Mexico and Utah State this year as double-digit underdogs. The offense ranks dead last in America, averaging just 254.6 yards per game, but if there's one thing that the Aggies try to do, it's establish the running game. Situations like this are key for underdogs of this magnitude, because the fewer possessions that the favored team has, the better chances the pups have of covering. Even though the rush defense for NMSU is pretty lousy as well (197.1 yards per game), the team does rank 28th in the nation against the pass (182.9 yards per game). It's not like Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor has done much to scare the opposition this season, so if there are going to be quick strikes for the visitors, the points are going to have to come from the defense, the rushing game, or special teams.
The first question that has to be asked when you're looking at a 40+ point spread is whether or not the favored team really has the ability to score that many points in a game. Last week's 38-point outburst against Minnesota tied a season-best for the Buckeyes, so it is still very unclear whether or not they have the capacity to cover this number even if they can pitch a shutout. The offense for OSU ranks 101st in the country in passing the football (181.2 yards per game), and only 78th in total yards (353.2 yards per game). It's not like the Bucks have played nothing but powerhouses either. Sure, USC and Wisconsin both have great defenses, but aside from that, no one that Ohio State has faced this year is even guaranteed to be a bowl team.
There's another key factor in this game that is often overlooked by sports bettors. Check out the scheduling here for the Buckeyes. Two weeks ago they were beaten by Purdue. Last week, they rebounded from that with the big 38-7 victory over Minnesota. Take a look at who's on the horizon... That's right, the trip to Penn State is next week, and HC Jim Tressel has to be far more concerned with the Nittany Lions than he is with the Aggies. Last year in a very similar spot, the Buckeyes only beat Ohio 26-14 as 33.5-point favorites with the USC Trojans up the following week.
The Buckeyes are just 2-4 ATS in their L/6 out-of-conference regular season affairs and just 1-4 ATS in their L/5 games against teams with a losing record. Without a doubt, Ohio State is going to prove to be victorious on Saturday. However, the final score should be much closer than the oddsmakers anticipate. Book it!!!
Play on: New Mexico State Aggies
Joseph D'Amico
California vs. Arizona State
Play: California -6½
At 4-3, ASU has had a disappointing season. Their "D" was exposed against Stanford in their 33-14 loss a week ago. Cal's offense is more explosive than Stanford's. QB Kevin Riley has 11 TD's, 2 INT's and 1454 YP. California has won and covered 5 of the last 6 meetings over Arizona State. The Golden Bear's re absolutely flattening teams that have a "lesser" defense. The Sun Devil's are 1-4 ATS their last 5 conference games, 1-4 ATS their last 5 games played in October, and 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as a home 'dog. The Golden Bear's are 17-4 ATS their last 21 as a favorite of 3 1/2 - 10 points. Cal is the play.
John Anthony
Nebraska vs. Baylor
Play: Under 45½
After getting shocked 9-7 in Lincoln by Iowa State last week, the Blackshirts suddenly find a once promising season circling the drain. I GUARANTEE it wasn't much fun at practice in Huskerland this week and you can count on Nebraska bringing their A-game this week. This is still a defense giving up just 11 ppg and the Baylor Bears haven't recovered from the loss of soph phenom QB Robert Griffin scoring just 24 points in three games without him. The Baylor stop unit is adequate and should do some things against Nebraska team that doesn't run the ball well. Lots of play between the 20's, play the Under.
Wunderdog
Miami Florida vs. Wake Forest
Play: Miami Florida -7
The Hurricanes may not be up to the level of the National Championship teams of the past, but the program is definitely on an uptick, entering this one at 5-2. The Hurricanes have lost to Virginia Tech and Clemson, and already own big wins over Oklahoma, Florida State and Georgia Tech. They are going to be angry and ready to prove something after dropping the last game to Clemson. The Hurricanes are averaging over 30 points per game and are led by dynamic QB Jacory Harris, who is passing for 9.4 yards per attempt. Their team speed is something that Wake simply can't match up with. The Demon Deacons are struggling offensively right now as they posted just 10 vs. Navy and a 3-spot vs. Clemson in their last two games. Those two losses saw Wake total just 486 yards of offense. The Canes defense is currently ranked No. 34 in the country, and Wake will have a difficult time moving the ball here against a very quick and athletic defense. Then Canes have fared well on the road where they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road tilts. And, the Deacons have no bark as a home dog dropping their last four. I like Miami to get the win and cover in this one.
Mitch Wilson
Eastern Michigan vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -38
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions meet as the Arkansas Razorbacks host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.
No one can look at this out of conference game on Arkansas' schedule and say the Razorbacks have taken the easy way out. Arkansas has played the toughest schedule in the country for at least two years running. The Razorbacks have played the number one and two teams in the country as opposed to last season when they played one, two, and three in consecutive weeks. Even after this game Arkansas has some tough sledding ahead of them but this game should be an easy one for them. Ryam Mallett has proved to be a gutsy gunslinger under center and the defense backs down from no one. Arkansas has played tough, even in defeat and nearly knocked off number one Florida a few weeks back. This game shouldn't even prove to be more difficult than an inter squad scrimmage for the Hogs.
Eastern Michigan has gone from bad to worse as QB Andy Schmitt went down for the season. Last week EMU lost to previously winless Ball State in a battle of two of the worst teams in the country. If Eastern Michigan isn't the worst team in the country, they are definitely in the bottom two or three as they have a lifeless offense and a pathetic defense. Eastern Michigan is 119th in points scored and 107th in points allowed which appears to be a magical formula for losing every game this season. This one should be one of the worst losses they take.
Normally I go to trends here but there is no reason to waste and more time or effort on this game nor waste any of your time reading something that in this case won't carry a shred of importance. Eastern Michigan just stinks and has no chance. This is one of those games where people not familiar with the college game look at the scoreboard and their eyes pop open. I can see a 60-70 point win here for Arkansas if they take it easy on the Eagles in the second half, otherwise it could be even worse.
Black Widow
1* on Texas A&M -7
Iowa State is getting way too much respect from the odds makers here Saturday. That's because they have won back-to-back games over Baylor and Nebraska, and their win over the Huskers last week has them clearly overrated right now. What the books do not understand is that Nebraska gave that game away, committing 8 turnovers in the 7-9 loss. The Cyclones were outgained 239-362 in the win, which shows that the Huskers gave away the game. ISU won't be so lucky when they travel to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday, a team coming off a blowout road win at Texas Tech. They beat the Red Raiders 52-30 despite coming into the game as a 22.5-point underdog, proving that they can play with the big boys. The Aggies will have no problem putting away Iowa State early in this one. Texas A&M has won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series, and they are scoring 41.5 points/game at home this season and putting up 526 total yards/game in the process. They are 3-1 when playing at College Station, outscoring their opponents by an average of 18.8 points/game. Their only loss came against Oklahoma State, the No. 13-ranked team in the nation by a final of 31-36 in a game they easily could have won. ISU gets put in their place Saturday by the superior team. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.
Dennis Macklin
Cincinnati U vs. Syracuse
Take Cincinnati -14.5
The Bearcats didn't miss a beat spanking Louisville 41-10 behind second-string QB Collaros. Regardless of whether Pike is available or not, Cincinnati should have little difficulty blowing out bad Orange team here before BCS run of B2B2B homies vs UConn, West Virginia, Illinois and at Pittsburg. Cinn won 30-10 laugher last year when it took "The Cuse" 22 minutes to get first down. The Orange should be fat and happy after rare win last week over Akron. BCats bring the heat on Paulus (9-10 TD/Int) who will throw a pick and Cinn fourth in NCAA in picks. Don't think "Style Points" won't be on Kelly's mind after seing teams drop in the polls last week.
Cincinnati 49-13.
DAVE COKIN
RUTGERS / CONNECTICUT
TAKE: RUTGERS
It's been a very trying couple of weeks for Connecticut. The Huskies played a very emotional game last week at West Virginia as they tried to win one for teammate Jasper Howard, who was tragically killed following UConn's homecoming win over Louisville. The Huskies played extremely hard last week in front of a subdued crowd in Morgantown, and fell just short in their effort to pull off the upset against West Virginia. I'm not sure what's left in their tank at this point, with the service for Howard taking place on Monday and arrests in the case being made as well. I look at this as a potential letdown spot for UConn, and I'd be surprised if they're at their best.
Aside from the intangible effects, it's a close game on paper. Rutgers is probably a little better defensively, and they're tough against the run, which is UConn's calling card on offense. UConn still has the edge on offense, but if they aren't able to run the ball well, the Huskies can be prone to mistakes with their passing game.
This has been an underdog series for the most part with the Huskies cashing most of the tickets since they're usually the ones getting the points. In fact, this is just the first time in five years that UConn has been the favorite. I expect this to be a very tightly contested clash and getting more than a TD, Rutgers is the choice.
JIM FEIST
MICHIGAN STATE / MINNESOTA
TAKE: OVER
A pair of good Big 10 offenses meet, though the defenses are suspect. Spartan Coach Mark Dantonio has gotten good production out of sophomore QB Kirk Cousins (9 TDs, 4 INTs), averaging 27 ppg along with freshman RB Larry Caper. But the defense is a concern, and Michigan State is 18-12-1 over the total the last two+ seasons. Minnesota is 29-22 over the total the last four+ years with a strong offense and suspect defense. Play Michigan State/Minnesota Over the total.
Jay Schecter
HOUSTON -6.5 over Southern Mississippi
This is a big inter-conference game for both these teams, as Conference USA play is predictably turning into a four-horse race between Houston, Southern Miss, East Carolina and UTEP. Houston has slipped only once this season, losing to UTEP after pulling off huge upsets at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. That loss knocked them out of the National Rankings but more importantly put them behind the eight ball for the conference crown. Houston is led by NFL prospect Case Keenum, who has a ridiculous 20-4 touchdown to interception ratio and has completed 70% of his passes. Houston can score with the any team in Division 1 but like many non BCS schools their defense can’t be counted on to make consistent stops. Southern Mississippi is very similar to Houston, as it also has an offense that can rack up points but really struggles to stop quality opponents on defense. This game’s total is set at 62½, and that means the odds-makers believe these two teams will trade touchdowns. So why take Houston? Firstly, I believe they have the edge on offense, as they are currently ranked third in the FBS in points per game at 40.4. Secondly, Houston has a major edge at quarterback, as Southern Mississippi lost their starter Austin Davis for the season and had to replace him with untested Martevious Young. Young is going to play his first conference road game and if this College Football season has taught us anything, it’s that untested quarterback’s playing on the road almost always struggle. Lastly, Houston isn’t going to look ahead like it did three weeks ago against UTEP because they know they need to win out for a chance to play in this season’s conference title game. That loss might have very well cost them an undefeated season and you can be sure second year coach Kevin Sumlin will remind his players of it and have them focused on this conference showdown. Play: #190 Houston –6½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
South Carolina +6 over TENNESSEE
Tennessee had a legitimate chance to pull of what was to be undoubtedly the biggest upset of this season last week, losing to #1 Alabama 12-10 on a last second field goal block. Lane Kiffin hammered the officiating after the game, as his team was repeatedly penalized in the fourth quarter while Alabama finished the entire game with one penalty. Tennessee played their hearts out and still lost and that’s what makes this a very dangerous game for them. Not only did Tennessee fall to 3-4 on the season, they squandered the chance to realistically get to six wins and become bowl eligible in Kiffin’s first season. South Carolina meanwhile is ranked nationally and sports a 5-2 record that includes a big upset at the hands of Mississippi and a last second loss to Georgia. South Carolina can run the ball, as their dual threat of Kenny Miles and Jarvis Gilles both average more than five yards per carry. That’s important because South Carolina was the worst teams in the SEC running the ball last year and that put too much pressure on quarterback Stephen Garcia. With the running game keeping the defense honest, Garcia has the second most passing yards in the SEC, a stunning turnaround for a guy couldn’t do anything last year. Garcia can now be trusted to make good decisions and run a watered-down version of the Spurrier Offense. Tennessee’s defensive numbers look great but need to be looked at with some caution as they played a weak non-conference schedule and haven’t really faced elite offenses. The bottom line is that Tennessee is not ready to get over the mental hurdle of last week’s loss and face what could be Steve Spurrier’s best South Carolina team since he took over five years ago. To be able to catch six points against a team I already think is wrongly favored makes this wager a must play. Play: #185 South Carolina +6 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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(4) USC (6-1, 2-5 ATS) at (10) Oregon (6-1, 5-2 ATS)
The week’s lone matchup of Top 10 teams comes from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks host USC in an important battle that has Pac-10 and national-championship implications.
USC went down to the wire with Oregon State last week, eventually prevailing 42-36 for its fourth straight win but coming up way short as a 21-point home favorite to fall to 1-5 ATS in its last six. Freshman QB Matt Barkley passed for 202 yards and two scores, but was also intercepted twice, while the usually stout USC defense got ripped for 482 total yards, including 329 passing yards and three passing TDs. The Trojans gave up a total of two TDs and 43 points in their first five games, but have surrendered 63 points and eight touchdowns the last two weeks to Notre Dame and Oregon State.
Oregon ran its winning streak to six in a row with last Saturday’s 43-19 thumping of Washington, easily covering as a 10-point road favorite – the team’s fifth consecutive spread-cover. The Ducks, who had 259 rushing yards and forced three turnovers against Washington, have won their last four games by 39, 46, 14 and 24 points. Oregon is unbeaten in four home games (3-1 ATS).
The host is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three years in this rivalry, with USC cruising 44-10 as a 16-point favorite last year after the Ducks won 24-17 as a three-point chalk in Eugene in 2007. USC has won four of the last five meetings and is 10-5 ATS in the last 15, including 5-1 ATS since 2001 (3-1 ATS at Autzen). Finally, the favorite has covered the number in each of the last five and seven of the last eight.
After scoring just 18 points at Ohio State (loss) and 13 at Washington (win), the Trojans have erupted for an average of 33.8 ppg during their four-game winning streak. Also, prior to the games against Notre Dame and Oregon State, USC’s defense had given up 10 points or less in 13 of 18 contests, including yielding a field goal or less eight times. Pete Carroll’s stop unit still ranks 15th in scoring defense (15.1 ppg), 16th in total defense (291.7 ypg), fifth in rushing defense (79.9 ypg) and fourth in yards-per-carry (2.4).
Since mustering just 152 total yards (31 rushing) in a humiliating 19-8 loss at Boise State, Oregon has averaged 40 points and 404.2 total ypg, including a whopping 240.7 rushing ypg. The Ducks’ defense has played well all year, allowing just 16.7 points and 297.1 total yards per outing (119 rushing ypg).
In addition to its 1-5 ATS slump overall (all as a chalk), USC has now failed to cash in six of seven on the road, six of seven against Pac-10 opponents and 14 of 19 in October, and the Trojans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Pac-10 roadies. Conversely, to go along with their 5-0 ATS run overall, the Ducks are on pointspread surges of 16-8 at home (4-1 this year), 6-0 in Pac-10 play, 6-1 against winning teams, 13-5 as an underdog of three points or less, 9-3 as a home underdog and 8-0 after a SU victory.
The last four meetings in this rivalry have stayed low, and the under for USC is on runs of 21-9-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 33-16-2 in league play, 25-11-1 as a favorite, 11-4 in October and 6-1 on artificial turf. However, the over is 7-1-1 in Oregon’s last nine at home and 5-2 in their last seven Pac-10 contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON
(3) Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-2-1 ATS)
The third-ranked Longhorns go for their 12th consecutive victory overall and 12th straight win over Big 12 South rival Oklahoma State as they hit the highway for the third straight week with a visit to Stillwater, Okla.
After escaping with a 16-13 neutral-site win over archrival Oklahoma, Texas last week went to Missouri and throttled the Tigers 41-7 as a 13-point road favorite. The Longhorns raced out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and finished with 400 total yards to 173 for Missouri. QB Colt McCoy (26-for-31, 269 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had one of his better games of the season. Nine of Texas’ 11 victories during its current win streak have been double-digit romps.
The Cowboys have ripped off five straight wins (2-0-1 ATS) since suffering a stunning 45-35 home loss to Houston as a 15½-point favorite back on Sept. 12. Last week, Oklahoma State went to Baylor and rolled 34-7 as a 9½-point road chalk. Senior Zac Robinson (23-for-27, 250 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) led an offense that rolled up 445 total yards (195 rushing), while the Cowboys’ defense held Baylor to 284 yards (43 rushing).
Texas held off Oklahoma State 28-24 last year, but the Cowboys scored 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points to get the easy cover as an 11½-point road underdog. The Longhorns have won 11 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, going just 7-4 ATS (all as a favorite). The last two clashes were decided by three and four points.
The Longhorns defense is yielding just 13.6 points, 235.6 total yards and 41.6 rushing yards per game, figures that rank ninth, second and first in the nation, respectively. Also, Texas allows opposing backs to gain just 1.5 yards per carry, by far the best in the country. However, tonight, that defense runs up against a potent Oklahoma State offense that is putting up 37 points and 417.6 yards per outing (185.6 rushing ypg).
McCoy has tossed a surprising eight INTs this year, but otherwise is having an outstanding senior season, connecting on 71.7 percent of his throws for 258 ypg with 14 TDs. Robinson is also enjoying his final collegiate season, connecting at a 63.7 percent rate for 194 ypg with 11 TDs against just two INTs.
Going back to last year’s Fiesta Bowl win and non-cover against Ohio State, the Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall (all as a favorite), and they’re 4-8-1 ATS since the middle of last season and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. But Texas is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight on the highway (5-2 ATS as a road favorite). Oklahoma State is on pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 7-3-1 in Big 12 action, 9-1-1 in October, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 after a SU win. However, the Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last four as a home pup and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The over is 16-7-1 in Texas’ last 24 on the highway, but otherwise it is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 6-0 in conference and 4-0 in October. However, Oklahoma State carries “over” trends of 35-17 at home, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 after SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) vs. (1) Florida (7-0, 3-3 ATS)
(at Jacksonville)
Coming off three straight shaky SEC victories, the Gators look to regain their dominating form when they take on rival Georgia in the annual “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prep for this showdown, taking last week off after scoring a 34-10 rout of Vanderbilt and cashing as a 7½-point road favorite. That victory snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS slide for Georgia, which averaged just 17.3 ppg during that three-game stretch against Arizona State (20-17 home win), LSU (20-13 home loss) and Tennessee (45-19 road loss).
A week after surviving a scare in a 23-20 home win over Arkansas as a 24-point home favorite, Florida went to Mississippi State last Saturday and struggled all night, pulling out a 29-19 win but again failing to cash, this time as a 21½-point road chalk. QB Tim Tebow had a poor outing at Mississippi State, going 12-for-22 for just 127 yards with no TDs and two INTs, both of which were returned by the Bulldogs for touchdowns, including one of 100 yards.
Despite struggling the last two weeks, Florida still owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 17 in a row, with 16 being double-digit routs, and it is 12-3 ATS in lined action during this stretch while allowing 21 points or less in every game.
Motivated by a post-touchdown end zone celebration in a 42-30 loss to Georgia as a seven-point favorite in 2007, the Gators got payback in a big way last year in Jacksonville, crushing the Bulldogs 49-10 as a 7½-point chalk. Georgia actually outgained Florida 398-373, but the Gators dominated on the ground (185-106) and Tebow (10-for-13, 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 39 rushing yards, 3 TDs) thoroughly outplayed future No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Matthew Stafford (18-for-33, 265 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs).
The Gators have won nine of the last 11 in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash the last eight years, with Georgia getting the money in two of the past three. The ‘dog is 5-3 ATS over this eight-year span.
In three games since returning from a concussion, Tebow is completing 63.5 percent of his passes but for only 172 passing ypg with two TDs and three INTs, and the Florida offense has averaged just 21.7 ppg over the three games.
Florida ranks in the top two nationally in scoring defense (10.1 ppg, tied for 2nd), total defense (229.6 ypg, 1st) and passing defense (135 ypg, 2nd). The Gators have also given up an NCAA-low two TD passes while nabbing 10 interceptions, and going back to the start of last season, Urban Meyer’s team has allowed more than 21 points just once in 21 games. By comparison, Georgia’s defense this season is getting torched for an average of 27.7 points, 365.6 total yards and 238.3 passing yards per game.
The Bulldogs have cashed in five of their last six neutral-site games, and they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last five when catching more than 10 points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when coming off a bye in the regular season. On the downside, Mark Richt’s squad is in pointspread slumps of 4-12 overall, 3-9-1 in SEC play, 4-11 in October, 2-6 versus winning teams and 0-3-1 after a spread cover.
Florida’s two-game ATS slide comes on the heels of a 20-5 ATS run overall. The Gators remain on pointspread surges of 19-7 as a favorite, 12-4 in SEC action, 18-4 versus winning teams, 5-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 at neutral sites and 7-3 when laying more than 10 points.
Georgia is on “over” runs of 7-3 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 6-1 as a pup overall. The over is also 5-2 in Florida’s last seven neutral-site games, but otherwise the Gators carry “under” trends of 5-0 overall, 6-0 in conference, 5-0 against winning teams and 37-17 after a non-cover. Finally, the last two meetings in this rivalry went over the total following a 5-1 “under” run in this series. ½
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(18) Miami, Fla. (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS)
A week after a gut-wrenching overtime home loss to Clemson, Miami attempts to regroup as it hits the road for an ACC battle with the struggling Demon Deacons at Groves Stadium.
The Hurricanes took a three-game SU and ATS winning streak into last week’s battle with Clemson, but got caught in a high-scoring back-and-forth contest, eventually falling 40-37 as a four-point favorite. Miami gave up a game-tying field goal as regulation expired, then got the ball first and managed just a field goal, with Clemson answering quickly with a 26-yard TD pass to steal the win. The teams combined for 843 total yards, with Miami getting 433 of those (177 rushing). QB Jacory Harris offset a 256-yard, two-TD passing day with three picks.
Wake Forest followed up a disastrous 38-3 loss at Clemson as an 8½-point underdog with last week’s 13-10 setback at Navy as a 2½-point road favorite, its third straight non-cover. The Demon Deacons’ last three losses came on the road, but since a 24-21 season-opening home loss to Baylor, Wake Forest has won four straight in Winston-Salem (2-1 ATS in lined action). The Demon Deacons have scored 21, 24, 35, 30 and 42 points at Groves Stadium, compared with netting just 12.3 ppg on the road.
Miami has won and covered all three meetings with Wake Forest since joining the ACC in 2004, including last year’s ugly 16-10 win as a three-point home favorite. In their last trip to Winston-Salem, the Hurricanes rolled 47-17 as a 16-point favorite, but that came back in 2005.
The ‘Canes are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the road, but otherwise they’re in pointspread nosedives of 2-5 in conference, 17-35-1 as a favorite, 4-9 as a road chalk and 1-10 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. Wake Forest has failed to cover in four of five overall, four of five in ACC action and four straight as an underdog, but Jim Grobe’s team is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home, 8-4 ATS as a home pup since 2004 (5-1 last six) and 4-0 in the last four when catching between 3½ and 10 points at Groves Stadium.
The under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven as a favorite, 5-1 in Wake’s last six as an underdog and 6-2 in Wake’s last seven in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(24) Ole Miss (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at Auburn (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
Auburn will try to put the brakes on a three-game losing skid when it welcomes the Rebels to Jordan Hare Stadium for an SEC West battle.
Ole Miss followed up a 48-13 non-conference rout of UAB (23-point favorite) with last Saturday’s 30-17 victory over visiting Arkansas, cashing again, this time as a 6½-point chalk. QB Jevan Snead snapped out his slump in a big way, going 22-for-33 for 332 yards with two TDs and two INTs, while Dexter McCluster had a combined 260 rushing and receiving yards as the Rebels rolled up 553 total yards and held the Razorbacks to 299.
The Tigers’ season has gone south since starting the year with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), as they’ve dropped their last three games, all to SEC foes Arkansas (44-23 as a 1½-point road favorite), Kentucky (21-14 as a 13½-point home chalk) and LSU (31-10 as a 7½-point road underdog). In last week’s loss to LSU, Auburn was pushed all over the field as it got outgained 376-193 and committed three turnovers.
Mississippi snapped a four-game losing skid to Auburn exactly one year ago, winning 17-7 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Rebels have cashed in each of the last three meetings after the Tigers had gone 5-1 ATS in this rivalry to start this decade. Finally, the visitor has covered in nine of the last 13 in this rivalry.
The Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games (2-1 ATS this year on the highway), and they’re riding additional pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 5-2 in SEC play, 23-11 in October, 9-4 versus teams with a winning record and 7-1 as a favorite. However, Houston Nutt’s team has failed to cover in nine of 12 as a road chalk, including five of its last six on the highway when giving between 3½ and 10 points.
In addition to going 1-4 ATS in its last five, Auburn is in pointspread dips of 3-10 in SEC action, 1-7 in October, 0-7 after a SU defeat, 5-16 after a non-cover and 2-5 as an underdog.
It’s been all “unders” for Ole Miss lately, including 4-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 38-17 in league play, 3-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points. Meanwhile, the Tigers have topped the total in four of five at Jordan Hare, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 6-2 against the SEC, 21-7 as a ‘dog, 7-2 as a home pup and 4-0 both after SU and ATS loss. Finally, four of the last five Ole Miss-Auburn meetings at Jordan Hare have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and UNDER
California (5-2, 3-3 ATS) at Arizona State (4-3, 3-3 ATS)
California shoots for its third straight Pac-10 victory when it travels to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz., for a battle with Arizona State.
Since getting crushed by Oregon (road) and USC (home) by a combined score of 72-6, the Bears have bounced back with a pair of impressive victories over UCLA (45-26) and Washington State (49-17). Although Cal covered easily as a 3½-point road favorite at UCLA, it came up short as a 35½-point home chalk last week despite jumping out to a 35-3 lead and finishing with 559 total yards (309 rushing) and allowing 440 total yards (55 rushing). The Bears are averaging 48 ppg in their victories, with all five being double-digit blowouts.
Arizona State’s two-game winning streak ended with a thud last Saturday at Stanford, falling 33-14 to the Cardinal as a 6½-point road underdog. The Sun Devils, who have failed to cover in three of their last four overall, got outgained 473-290 at Stanford (237-129 on the ground).
Cal topped the Sun Devils 24-14 last October, barely covering as a 9½-point home favorite to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings. However, in their last trip to the desert, the Bears fell 31-20 as a three-point road underdog, and the home team (and favorite) has won and covered the last four meetings dating to 2004. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last nine series battles.
The Bears rank 12th in the nation in rushing at 216 yards per game (5.7 per carry), but they’re facing an Arizona State defense that yields just 83.4 ypg on the ground and 2.7 ypc, which ranks sixth and eighth in the country, respectively.
Cal is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road chalk, but the Bears are also on positive pointspread rolls of 7-3 as a favorite, 16-4 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 5-1 after a non-cover. The Sun Devils are mired in ATS funks of 3-7 as an underdog and 0-3 as a home ‘dog under coach Dennis Erickson, plus 1-11 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, 1-4 in Pac-10 play, 1-4 in October, 2-7 after a SU loss and 3-9 against winning teams.
The Bears are on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-2 in conference play. Conversely, it’s been all “unders” for ASU lately, including 24-8 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-0 in conference, 6-1 as an underdog, 15-5-2 in October and 6-0 after a non-cover. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL
Kansas State (5-3, 3-3 ATS) at (22) Oklahoma (4-3, 2-3-1 ATS)
Kansas State, which has won two in a row and surprisingly sits atop the Big 12 North division, faces a difficult test when it travels to Memorial Stadium for a league contest against the Sooners.
The Wildcats followed up an eye-popping 62-14 rout of Texas A&M as a five-point underdog with last Saturday’s 20-6 thumping of Colorado as a four-point home chalk. After getting outgained 739-284 in a 66-14 loss at Texas Tech three weeks ago, Kansas State has come back to out-gain its last two opponents by a combined 163 yards. The Wildcats are undefeated through four home games (2-0 ATS vs. lined competition), but 1-3 SU and ATS on the road, where they average 12.7 ppg and allow 35.3 ppg.
Oklahoma bounced back from a difficult 16-13 loss to third-ranked Texas with last week’s 35-13 destruction of Kansas as an eight-point road favorite. The Sooners have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five outings, and while their three defeats this year were by a total of five points, their four wins have come by a combined score 177-20. OU has won 27 consecutive home games (18-8-1 ATS).
These teams played a record first half against each other last October, with Oklahoma taking a 55-28 lead into the break, eventually winning 58-35 and covering as an 18-point road favorite. The teams combined for 1,078 total yards, with the Sooners gaining 273 of 528 yards on the ground and K-State picking up 486 of 550 yards through the air. Oklahoma has won six of seven meetings this decade, including the last three in a row, but the teams are 3-3-1 ATS in this stretch, with the underdog going 4-2-1 ATS. Going back to 1997, the visitor is 6-2-1 ATS in this series, with the Wildcats going 3-1-1 ATS in their last four trips to Memorial Stadium.
Kansas State has cashed in three of four overall and eight of 11 in October, but they’re 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against opponents that have a winning record. The Sooners are on ATS streaks of 8-4-1 overall, 8-3 as a favorite, 7-1-1- in Big 12 play, 19-8-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points, 13-5-1 as a home chalk in that range and 7-3-1 against winning clubs.
The under is 4-2 in the Wildcats’ last seven overall and 4-1 in their last five on the road, but they’re also on “over” stretches of 28-11 in Big 12 play, 21-8 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road pup and 8-3 in October. The over is also 9-3 in Oklahoma’s last 12 league games, but otherwise the Sooners are riding “under” streaks of 7-0 overall (6-0 this year), 3-0 at home and 6-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(12) Penn State (7-1, 3-4 ATS) at Northwestern (5-3, 2-5 ATS)
Fresh off its fourth straight double-digit blowout victory, Penn State takes to the road for the second week in a row for a Big Ten battle with the Wildcats at Ryan Field.
The Nittany Lions went to Michigan last week and allowed a touchdown on the Wolverines’ opening possession, then took the game over from there, scoring 35 of the next 38 points to win 35-10 as a 3½-point road favorite. Since getting upset 21-10 by Iowa as a 9½-point home favorite on Sept. 26, Penn State has won four in a row (3-0 ATS in lined games) by a combined score of 142-30, outgaining all four opponents by a combined 939 yards. Take away the loss to Iowa, and the Nittany Lions have won seven games by an average of 23 ppg (33.1-10.1)
Northwestern rallied from a 28-3 deficit to Indiana last week and escaped with a 29-28 victory, kicking the game-winning 19-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. The Wildcats, who outgained Indiana 474-305, won for the third time in their last four games, but failed to cover as a 4½-point home favorite, falling to 2-5 ATS on the season (0-4 ATS at home, all as a favorite).
The underdog has covered in all seven of Northwestern’s games this season, and the ‘dog got the money in Penn State’s first four contests before the Lions came back to win and cover their last three lined outings as a favorite.
Penn State has won two in a row and seven of the last nine in this rivalry, including last year’s 33-7 rout as a 20-point home chalk, ending the Wildcats’ 3-0 ATS run in this series. Five of the last eight head-to-head battles have been decided by 10 points or less, and the home team is on an 8-2 ATS roll, with Northwestern going 4-1 ATS in the last five at Ryan Field.
Not only have the Nittany Lions cashed in three straight lined games overall, but they’re also on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 on the road, 4-1 in Big Ten action, 6-1-1 as a road favorite, 5-0-1 when laying more than 10 points on the road and 14-4-2 in October. Northwestern has cashed in five straight and seven of nine as a ‘dog, but in addition to going 2-5 ATS this year (0-4 ATS at home), the ‘Cats are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a SU victory.
The under is 6-1 in Penn State’s games this year (all as a favorite), including 4-0 as a double-digit chalk, and the under for Northwestern is on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in October and 5-0 as an underdog. Also, three of the last four in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER
Kansas (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at Texas Tech (5-3, 4-3 ATS)
Two Big 12 teams coming off blowout conference losses try to get back on track at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders host Kansas.
The Jayhawks have followed up a seven-game winning streak with consecutive conference losses at Colorado (34-30 as an eight-point road favorite) and Oklahoma (35-13 as an eight-point home underdog), and they’ve now failed to cover in four straight games. After outgaining seven consecutive opponents, Kansas ended up on the short end of a 337-305 yardage discrepancy against Oklahoma, and QB Todd Reesing (22-for-42, 224 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs) had a miserable day against the Sooners’ defense.
Texas Tech went off as a 21½-point home favorite last week against Texas A&M and proceeded to get steamrolled 52-30, ending a three-game overall and eight-game home winning streak. QB Taylor Potts got picked off twice and the Red Raiders also lost three fumbles, while the defense surrendered 559 total yards, including 321 on the ground.
Texas Tech crushed the Jayhawks 63-21 as a two-point road favorite last year, finishing with a 556-315 edge in total offense. The Red Raiders have won 10 of 11 meetings by an average of 14 ppg, including the last three in a row (1-2 ATS). Prior to last year’s contest, the ‘dog had covered in four straight series meetings, and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
These teams feature two of the top passing attacks in the country. Kansas averages 329.3 ypg through the air (7.9 yards per pass attempt), which actually is dwarfed by Tech’s NCAA-best 419 passing ypg (8.2 yards per pass attempt). While Reesing has passed for 2,203 yards (65 percent completion rate) with 15 TDs and seven INTs, the Red Raiders’ QB duo of Potts (67 percent, 2,127 yards) and Steven Sheffield (74.5 percent, 1,014 yards) have combined for 27 TD tosses and 10 picks.
In addition to its current 0-4 ATS slump, Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games, but the Jayhawks have covered in 12 of their last 14 road games and five of six as a road pup. Meanwhile, going back to November 2006, Texas Tech is 18-2 SU at home and the Red Raiders are 28-8-1 ATS in their last 37 after a SU defeat, but they’re also 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when laying 3½ to 10 points.
Kansas is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 7-2 in Big 12 action, 4-1 in October and 5-2 as a ‘dog. The over is also on several streaks for Texas Tech, including 10-4 overall, 5-0 at home, 7-3 in conference and 5-1 in October
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER
(21) South Carolina (6-2, 5-2 ATS) at Tennessee (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
Tennessee tries to bounce back from a near-miss at top-ranked Alabama when it returns to Neyland Stadium for an SEC East clash with the Gamecocks.
South Carolina barely held off Vanderbilt last Saturday, winning 14-10 but never threatening to cover as a 13½-point home favorite. Despite outgaining the Commodores 431-273, the Gamecocks needed a 43-yard fourth-quarter TD pass by Stephen Garcia to erase a 10-7 deficit in a game in which neither team committed a turnover. South Carolina has won five of its last six – only setback being a 20-6 loss at Alabama as an 18-point road ‘dog – but has failed to cover in two of it last three lined games, with the underdog and road team going 3-0 ATS in this stretch.
The Volunteers gave No. 1 Alabama all it could handle last week, but two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter – including one on the final play of the game – proved the difference as Tennessee lost 12-10 but easily covered the 14-point spread. The Vols, who have alternated wins and losses in their last five games (3-2 ATS), actually outgained the Crimson Tide 341-256 and allowed just four field goals. The last time Tennessee took the field at Neyland Stadium, it hammered Georgia 45-19 as a one-point underdog, putting up 472 yards of total offense.
South Carolina had no trouble with the Vols last year, winning 27-6 as a six-point home chalk, just the second win for the ‘Cocks in their last 16 meetings with Tennessee. The favorite is 3-0 SU and ATS the past three years in this series, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last five clashes. Also, the visitor is on a 10-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, with South Carolina going 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Knoxville.
The Gamecocks are on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the road, 10-4 as a road pup, 4-0 as an underdog anywhere (3-0 this year) and 5-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. Tennessee has covered in five of six SEC games, but otherwise is in pointspread funks of 3-7 as a favorite, 9-21 as a home chalk and 3-8-2 when giving between 3½ and 10 points.
The over is 6-2-1 in South Carolina’s last nine road games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog. Tennessee is on “under” rolls of 20-5-1 overall, 33-16-3 at home, 19-7-1 in SEC games, 7-1 in October and 10-3-1 as a favorite. Finally, six of the last eight meetings between these schools have stayed low, and four of the last five in Tennessee have featured 43 total points or fewer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER
Southern Miss (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at (15) Houston (6-1, 5-1 ATS)
In a possible preview of the Conference USA championship game in December, streaking Houston aims for its fourth consecutive win overall and its 13th straight home victory when it entertains the Golden Eagles, who have won two in a row.
Southern Miss followed up a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS) – all on the road – with back-to-back blowout home wins over Memphis (36-16 as a 14-point favorite) and Tulane (43-6 as a 21-point chalk). Last week versus Tulane, the Golden Eagles gained 253 of their 380 total yards on the ground, while allowing just 212 total yards (54 rushing). Southern Miss has averaged 38.8 ppg in its five wins (all at home) but just 22.7 ppg in three defeats (all on the road), and the Eagles’ defense (30 ppg, 372 total ypg, 168 rushing ypg) has struggled on the highway.
Houston returned from a three-game road trip and smacked SMU 38-15 as a 16½-point home favorite last week to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three. Since a stunning 58-41 loss at UTEP on Oct. 3, the Cougars have allowed a total of 55 points (18.3 ppg) during their three-game winning streak. With standout QB Case Keenum (70.1 percent, 390.6 ypg, 20 TDs, 4 INTs) at the controls, Houston fields the nation’s second-most lethal passing attack at 403.1 passing ypg, and its 21 TD passes is tied for second nationally.
These teams last met in the 2006 Conference USA title game on Houston’s home field, and the Cougars won 34-20 as a five-point chalk. The host has won four in a row in this rivalry, with Houston going 3-1 ATS (2-0 ATS at home). Also the home team has covered in eight of the past 10 meetings, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Southern Miss is 2-7 ATS in its last nine in October, but otherwise is on pointspread surges of 10-4 on the road, 6-2 in C-USA games, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 4-1 a road pup and 6-2 after a SU win. The Cougars carry positive ATS streaks of 6-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-1 as a home chalk and 5-1 against an opponent with a winning record.
For the Golden Eagles, the under is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 7-0 in league action and 7-1 when playing on grass. Similarly, Houston is on “under” rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-1 as a home chalk and 4-0 on grass. However, the last two clashes in this rivalry have hurdled the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WORLD SERIES
N.Y. Yankees (8-3) at Philadelphia (8-3)
All tied at 1-1, the 2009 World Series shifts to Citizens Bank Park, where the host Phillies are scheduled to hand the ball to 2008 postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.49 ERA), while the Yankees counter with veteran Andy Pettitte (16-8, 4.00) in another battle of southpaws.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with a 3-1 victory in Game 2 on Thursday, getting solo homers from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui to go with a stellar pitching performance from A.J. Burnett, who yielded one run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings.
New York, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, snapped a four-game World Series losing streak with Thursday’s win. The Yankees enter Game 3 on positive runs of 49-20 overall, 40-13 as a favorite, 11-4 as a road chalk, 6-1 against the N.L. East, 5-0 in interleague road games, 37-15 against left-handed starters, 9-3 versus lefties on the road and 5-2 on Saturday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 7-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 10 playoff road games and six of seven World Series roadies.
Philadelphia had a four-game World Series winning streak halted in Game 2, but is still 19-6 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 12 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-15 overall at home, 11-3 as an underdog, 17-7 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 as a playoff pup, 38-14 after a day off and 37-16 versus southpaw starters. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 10 of 14 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East), six straight interleague contests at home and six in a row on Saturday.
Philadelphia is now 3-2 against New York this year, with all five games played in the Bronx. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won seven of the last 10 meetings, with the Yankees going 4-1 in their last five at Citizens Bank Park.
Pettitte delivered three straight quality starts in the first two rounds of the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA. He pitched 6 1/3 innings in all three games while surrendering a total of five runs, 17 hits and three walks while striking out 15. The 37-year-old veteran has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, but New York is just 3-4 during this stretch. Despite that fact, behind Pettitte, the Yankees are on upticks of 10-4 overall, 8-1 as a favorite, 38-18 as a road chalk and 18-6 against the A.L. East.
Including two playoff outings, Pettitte is 9-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 18 road starts, with New York going 12-6. He’s made seven career starts against Philadelphia, going 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA, including 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank Park. Finally, Pettitte holds the record for most postseason victories, as he’s 16-9 with a 3.83 ERA in 38 career playoff starts.
Hamels was magnificent in October during the Phillies’ championship season last year, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two World Series outings (both Phillies wins). However, last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP has struggled this postseason, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts (one against Colorado, two against Los Angeles), but his team won the two NLCS contests against the Dodgers. Hamels has gone six straight starts without a quality outing, giving up 24 runs (all earned) in 31 1/3 innings (6.89 ERA).
Hamels yielded seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his two playoff home starts, and including those contests, he’s 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA in Philadelphia this season. The San Diego native has faced New York twice in his career, both times in interleague play (one home, one road), and he allowed two runs in each contest over 13 innings (2.77 ERA). On May 24 in the Bronx, Hamels held the Yankees to two runs on eight hits over six innings, getting a no-decision as the Phillies won 4-3 in extra innings.
All five meetings between these teams this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
Despite staying low in the first two games of the World Series, Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-2-1 in these playoffs, 3-0-1 at home, 8-1-1 after a defeat, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a day off and 6-0 in the third game of a series. With Hamels pitching, the over is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 7-2-1 on Saturday, but the under is 5-1 in Hamels’ last six interleague starts (all against the A.L. East).
The Yankees continue to cash “under” tickets, as the low side is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the A.L. East, 7-1-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 versus lefty starters, 16-5 in the World Series, 7-3 in World Series road games, 16-5-2 as a favorite, 6-1-1 after an off day and 16-4-2 after a victory. Also, with Pettitte on the mound, New York is on “under” rolls of 46-20-3 overall, 34-15-2 on the road, 37-16-1 as a favorite, 15-5-1 in interleague action and 10-2 against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chris Jordan
Duke +7 at VIRGINIA
Do not agree with this line one bit, as the Blue Devils are much better than a touchdown+extra point underdog, while the Cavaliers have no business laying this many to a team that has the postseason on the brain.
And after witnessing the Tar Heels win as a double-digit underdog at Virginia Tech Thursday night, the Devils will have plenty of confidence to steal one out of Scott Stadium. Both teams are 2-1 in conference play, but it’s Duke with the above-.500 record, sitting at 4-3 and just two games shy of being bowl eligible at this point.
I covered this last week, but no sense in letting it go unnoticed, Duke rolls in with one of the best passing games in the nation, ranking sixth with 322.5 yards per game. It will be quite a challenge for the Cavaliers’ top-notch passing D, but I like my chances with the Devils.
The fact the Devils have improved in every area imaginable on the gridiron under second-year coach David Cutliffe is enough for me to take a look at this team for value from here on out. This team seems better prepared for games, it executes much better, it’s putting up much better numbers than in the past and it really is the most formidable and promising Blue Devils team to get to the postseason.
4♦ DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Oklahoma State +9 vs Texas
Arkansas -36.5 vs E. Michigan
Mississippi -4.5 vs Auburn
SD State -16 vs New Mexico
Single Plays
UNT -13 vs W. Kentucky
Baylor +13.5 vs Nebraska
Texas A&M -6 vs Iowa St
Colorado +4 vs Missouri
Central Michigan +5.5 vs Boston College
Indiana +17.5 vs Iowa
Boise -36 vs San Jose
Georgia +15 vs Florida
Oregon St -10 vs UCLA
California -6.5 vs Arizona St
Nevada -5 vs Hawaii
Arkansas St +2.5 vs Louisville
Florida Atlantic -2 vs Middle Tennessee
LSU -36 vs Tulane
Dave Price
1 Unit on Mizzou Tigers -3.5
Missouri is the more talented football team in this matchup, of that I have not doubt, and I expect the Tigers to end their 3-game skid Saturday. Mizzou has won by 15 points or more in this matchup each of the last 3 seasons and Colorado has not narrowed the gap enough on either side of the football to get the call here. After A brutal offensive performance against Texas, expect the Tigers to take out their frustrations on a Colorado defense that has struggled to defend the pass all season long. Plays on road favorites after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 28-4 ATS since 1992. Lay the points.