Bettorsworld
3* Cincinnati -15 over Syracuse - This one is for the pollsters. Anything less than a double digit win by Cinci here will hurt this teams BCS chances and they know it. Syracuse couldn't come close to #7 Penn State, or Big East opponents West Virginia and South Florida. Meanwhile, Cinci has smoked the likes of South Florida, Oregon State and Rutgers. There will still be some tough tests for Cinci in the weeks ahead, with games against Uconn, WVA and Pitt, but this week shouldn't be one of them. Cinci #3 in the Nation in turnover margin, Cuse is #77. Cinci yards per point numbers are among the best in the land with an 11.3 on offense and a 23.2 on defense while Syracuse a mediocre 13 on both sides of the ball. Again, 42-10 will get them plenty more votes in the polls than 17-10 will. We'll lay it.
3* Oregon +3 over USC - This is why you play College Football if you're a kid on either squad here. Doesn't get much bigger than this. Do you suppose Oregon remembers a little trip South a year ago, you know, to Los Angles, where they were blown off the field 44-10? Of course in order to attain revenge, a team has to be capable. We think Oregon is just that. After a rocky first two games with a loss and a 2 point win over Purdue, Oregon has blown the doors off of everyone they have faced and looked more impressive than USC did against common opponents Washington, Washington State and CAL. Hey USC lost to Washington while Oregon won 43-19. Furthermore, USC's wins not looking all that impressive if you take a step back. How good is Ohio State? How good is Notre Dame? How good is Oregon State? USC was lucky to escape all of them.
Oregon 26th in the Nation in Turnover margin while USC is 83rd. Yards per point numbers on offense for USC a slightly above average 14, compared to Oregon's phenomenal 10, while USC edges out the Ducks defensively with a 19 to their 18 (17.8). You could certainly argue that Oregon has played the tougher schedule as well. Certainly losing to Boise not as shameful as losing to Washington. Bottom line is, the number tell us that Oregon is as good as, or better than USC this year. They get the game at home and have additional motivation with a score to settle from last year. Love taking points in games we feel our side can win straight up. Oregon +3
VEGAS EXPERTS
Rutgers at Connecticut
We're not even sure that the right team is favored. Over the last ten seasons, teams with a winning record that are coming off an ATS win/SU loss on the road have gone 59-111 against the spread. UConn is tempting fate with a 6-0 ATS record vs. Rutgers as well as a 6-0 ATS overall record in all games this season. The Scarlet Knights have won their two road games by an average of 19 PPG.
Play on: Rutgers
John Ryan
La.-Lafayette at Golden Panthers
Prediction: La.-Lafayette
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on LA-Lafayette as they face Florida International set to start at High Noon EST. LAL is a perfect LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. In last week?s game LAL lost to Florida Atlantic by the score of 51-29. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-7 on the money line for 76% winners and making 38 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. This system has averaged a +204 dog and LAL is right in the neighborhood at +180. The AiS shows a 74% probability that LAL will lose this game by 5 or fewer points and has a 51% probability of winning the game. Take LA-Lafayette.
Tom Freese
Texas at Oklahoma St.
Prediction: Texas
Texas is 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 games after allowing less than a 100 yards rushing in their last game and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 road games. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS off an ATS win and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 meetings with the Cowboys. Oklahoma St is 7-22 ATS their last 29 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points and they are 1-4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as underdogs. PLAY ON TEXAS -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Georgia +14.5
Bottom Line: With a bye week to prepare and with this one being played on a neutral field, Georgia has an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number against a struggling Florida offense. Plus, the Dawgs will be out for blood after getting annihilated by the Gators last season. Georgia is on an impressive 17-6 ATS run in road games after a bye week and 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams. Plus, most all of Florida's offense is coming on the ground and Georgia is on a 12-3 ATS run in road games versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game. With Florida moving the ball on the ground, the clock keeps moving, making these 14.5 points even more valuable. Take the points.
Sports Insights
Mississippi vs. Auburn
After jumping out to a 5-0 record, many of college football's talking heads anointed the Tigers as the team who would challenge Alabama in the SEC West for a shot at the conference title. Three losses later, the unranked Tigers have gone from trendy SEC sleeper to home underdog against Ole Miss.
Mississippi opened as 4.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently garnering 73% of spread bets, 75% of moneyline bets and 77% of parlay bets, proving the college football "experts" aren't the only people jumping off the Auburn bandwagon. Even though the public, as well as the national media, seems to have written off the Tigers, sharp money has pounded this game, producing multiple Smart Money Plays on Auburn, including one from Matchbook (+10.23 units) and another from Catalina/VegasVic (+7.49 units). Steam Moves from Pinnacle (+3.3 units) and ThePig (+7.4 units) have also been triggered, further convincing us that the death of the 2009 Auburn Tigers may be a bit premature.
Auburn +4.5
Georgia vs. Florida
Tomorrow is the last Saturday in October, meaning it's time to throw on your costumes, set your clocks back an hour, and get ready for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party; or as the NCAA wants us to call it, "The Georgia-Florida Game." The undefeated Gators come into this game as a favorite among Harris Poll voters, as well as SEC referees. Georgia took a pounding in Knoxville a few weeks ago, but bounced back with a 24-point win against Vandy. More importantly, Florida is coming off a dogfight (no pun intended) against Mississippi State, while the Dawgs were off Saturday, giving them two weeks to rest, prepare and be reminded of the 49-10 beating they took one year ago.
The Gators opened as a 16-point favorite at CRIS and the public is split down the middle on this game. Even though exactly 50% of spread bets are backing Florida, the line has shrunk to -14.5. This line movement suggests there is some sharp money behind Georgia. We also like that the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, and although Florida is listed as the home team, this game is played on a neutral field in Jacksonville. SportsInsights' Betting Systems have triggered one move on the Cocktail Party, a Steam Move on Georgia at Bet365 (+1.0 unit). Although it's not a huge move, it's one more reason to take the points and back the Dawgs. There are still a couple of sportsbooks offering Georgia at +15, so go ahead and grab it at that number.
Georgia +15 (WSEX)
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Behind 276 yards rushing, Arkansas State notched its second victory of the season last week, rolling over Florida International 27-10. Louisville got hammered by Big East rival Cincinnati 41-10, allowing Bearcats quarterback Zach Collaros to throw for 253 yards and three touchdowns on only 17 pass attempts.
Louisville opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are a huge public favorite, receiving 78% of spread bets. This one-sided betting should have caused the line to increase, yet it has shrunk to -2.5. This line movement has triggered multiple plays on Arkansas State from SportsInsights Betting Systems, including two separate Steam Moves from 5dimes (+21.1 units) and one more from The Pig (+7.4). We'll follow the sharp money, as well as the almighty 5dimes Steam Moves, and go with Red Wolves getting three points.
Arkansas State +3
Jimmy Boyd
Duke vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -7
I'll take the Cavs in this bounce back revenge spot laying a TD plus PAT to the Blue Devils Saturday. Virginia will be extremely motivated in this spot after its 3-game winning streak came to an end last week. Plus, the Cavs will have revenge on the mind after getting crushed 31-3 at Duke last season. Duke is a passing football team and that plays right into Virginia's hands as the Cavs are only allowing 151 passing yards on 5 yards per pass attempt this season. And Duke is on a 2-13 ATS slide in road games versus good passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards per attempt. Virginia has won 14 of the last 17 in the series, including 7 of the last 8 at home. Lay the number.
Steve Merril
Western Kentucky vs. North Texas
Play: North Texas -13.5
Western Kentucky actually qualifies in a some decent contrary technical situations this week as winless underdogs are actually a solid play after back-to-back ATS losses. However, this angle works because the favorite usually overlooks their inferior opponent. That will not be the case this week as North Texas is just 1-6 SU and will relish at the chance to finally dominate a weaker opponents as the Mean Green have been a pointspread underdog in each of their first seven games this season. North Texas is a veteran team that returned 16 starters this season and they won outright 51-40 at Western Kentucky last season as an 18-point road underdog. WKU is a much weaker team this season, while NTU has improved, so another double-digit win is likely for the Mean Green today. Western Kentucky is the worst team in division I-A football this season and they have a horrendous defense that is allowing 41.9 points per game and 7.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 26.9 ppg and 5.3 yppl). North Texas should be able to exploit this weak defense as the Mean Green are averaging a solid 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.4 yppl). North Texas is also rushing for 5.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 4.1 ypr) and will now be facing a terrible WKU run defense that allows 266 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 162 yards and 4.1 ypr). Western Kentucky has a decent rushing offense, but their passing attack is terrible as the Hilltoppers average just 5.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.8 ypp). This non-existent aerial game makes it difficult for them to play from behind and it also lessens the chance of a backdoor cover today.
Charlie Scott
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Indiana +17
I gave this play out when I was on the radio show "The Sports Scribes" Wednesday night and still feel Indiana +17 is the right side. This is more of a play against Iowa, who is a good team just not this good. Iowa could easily have 3 straight up losses this season. Indiana can pass the ball on offense and Iowa's defense struggles at times to stop the pass. Had Iowa lost to Penn st a month ago, this line is Iowa -10, take the extra touchdown.
Scott Spreitzer
Charlotte Bobcats at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
I had both of these teams last night, and cashed a 2-0 card. The Cavs rolled the T-Wolves, but we had to sweat the Bobcats as they blew an 18-point fourth quarter lead, before winning by a basket in double-OT, covering by half a point. But the Bobcats have suffered a shooting-freeze in each of their first two games. They were hanging around the number in the first half against the Celtics, but didn't score their first points of the second half until the third quarter was more than halfway over. Charlotte finished the game with 59 points. Last night the Bobcats jumped out to a 32-13 lead at the end of the first quarter. And as I mentioned, led the hapless Knicks by 18 in the fourth. Charlotte completely collapsed on the offensive end again, scoring a grand total of 13 points in the final quarter. Charlotte has made just 58 of 166 shots in two games, a 34.9% rate. That includes a rotten, 3 of 28, 10.7% mark from behind the arc. They have also committed 33 turnovers with just 28 assists. And this team was thinking about a postseason run just a week ago? The Cavs bounced back and picked up their first win of the season against two defeats. They had no trouble with the T-Wolves and I suspect they'll handle most of the "scrub" teams on their schedule. Charlotte fits that bill, and I'll lay it with the Cavaliers once again.
JR TIPS
USC at Oregon
This game is a key game when it comes to deciding the Pac-10 as the Trojans and Ducks face off in Eugene at Autzen Stadium for the eighth time in the Pete Carroll era. Carroll is 4-3 against the Ducks with two of those losses coming at Autzen Stadium and both teams head into Saturday's game with 6-1 overall records, with USC being 3-1 in conference play and Oregon being 4-0.USC's lone loss this season came when quarterback Matt Barkley was sidelined with a shoulder injury at Washington, but since then Barkley has been back, he has led the Trojans to four straight wins while Oregon's only loss so far came at the hands of Boise State when Oregon had to travel to play on the blue turf in Boise in their first game of the season. Last week the Trojans looked unimpressive against an average Oregon State team while giving up 482 yards of total offense meanwhile Jeremiah Masoli who returned from a knee injury led Oregon to a 43-19 romp of Washington, the team USC lost too. Oregon has the talent and chemistry that gives them a great chance to win as long as they are able to stop USC's running backs and pressure Barkley. In recent past, USC has had an experienced veteran quarterback in these big game situations but here is where the freshman quarterback will struggle. This Oregon team will put pressure on USC to score as their offense which is on fire will put points on the board unlike Ohio state did when the freshman QB had his first big game start. He will be forced to make throws in this loud stadium and not just rely on the run which will spell trouble for the freshman QB tonight.
TAKE OREGON +3.5
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cincinnati -15' at SYRACUSE
Early comp play winner on Saturday, as we lay the lumber with the Cincinnati Bearcats.
This team is on fire, and the luke-warm Orangemen are not going to be able to put out the flames in this one.
Seems it doesn't really matter who is under center for Cincy, as Zach Collaros has been rock-solid calling the plays for Brian Kelly's team.
Cincinnati has won the last 3 series meetings, going 1-1-1 against the spread, but do note: ALL 3 wins have come by 14-points or more! Throw in the fact that 7 of the 'Cuse's last 8 losses have come by 14-points or more, and you get the feeling that this game is going to get away from the host pretty quickly.
The 'Cats have covered 5 of their last 7 on the road, including 2 of 3 in the role of road favorite.
Cincinnati is a perfect 7-0 on the season, and after lighting up Louisville last weekend, we have become true believers in this Bearcats' edition.
Play on Cincy to win big!
5♦ CINCINNATI
Karl Garrett
Indiana +17' at IOWA
G-Man realizes that Indiana blew a 28-3 lead last week in their 29-28 loss at Northwestern, but the G-Man also realizes that the Hoosiers have rewarded their backers when they are getting points, as Indy has covered 2 in a row in the underdog role, and 4 of 6 overall this season when catching points.
Iowa also played a last second barn-burner last weekend, winning at Michigan State on the last play of the game. The problem with the undefeated Hawkeyes is they usually play to the level of their competition, as 4 of their 8 wins this season have come by a field-goal or less!
The Hawkeyes offense has also been held to 21-points or less in half of their 8 wins. Those facts make backing an over 2 touchdown favorite a dicey proposition at best.
G-Man looking for the Hoosiers to put up enough of a fight to keep them inside of this roomy impost.
Take Indy!
4♦ INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Georgia vs. Florida -14', at Jacksonville, Fla.
For Saturday’s free play on the college gridiron, take Florida and lay the big points against Georgia in their annual neutral-site SEC clash from Jacksonville.
Perfect time to jump back on the Gators’ bandwagon, as there is PLENTY of room on that sucker because of what’s happened the last two (and really the last three) weeks. After an impressive but less-than-inspiring 13-3 win at LSU on Oct. 10, Florida laid to pretty stinky eggs against Arkansas at home (23-20 win) and Mississippi State on the road (29-19 win). The Gators never came close to covering the 24- and 23-point spreads in those wins, and because of the way the offense has sputtered the last three weeks, skeptics are beginning to question Florida’s chances of defending its national title.
Well, if I’ve learned one thing about Urban Meyer it’s this: Just when you begin to doubt his football team is when he sends his players out more prepared than ever and guides them to a blowout win. And I can see the exact same thing happening today. Don’t be at all surprised if Tim Tebow, whom I believe was suffering lingering effects of that concussion the last three weeks, puts on a show against a Georgia defense that is WILDLY overrated.
Already this season, the Bulldogs have surrendered 24 (Oklahoma State), 37 (South Carolina), 41 (Arkansas) and 45 (Tennessee) points. Say what you want to about Florida’s recent offensive showings, but are you going to tell me that the Gators are worse offensively than those four teams? Please! On the other hand, look at Georgia’s offensive production against the five best defenses it has faced this season: 10 points at Oklahoma State, 41 vs. South Carolina (a total fluke), 20 vs. Arizona State (at home), 13 vs. LSU (again, at home) and 19 at Tennessee (and 16 of those 19 points came on an INT returned for a score, a 100-yard kickoff return for a score and a safety!).
Well, Florida’s defense is the best in the country, bar none. The Gators rank second in points-allowed (10.1 ppg), first in total yards allowed (229.6 ypg) and second in passing yards allowed (135 ypg). Take away two Tebow pick-sixes last week at Mississippi State, and Florida’s D has given up 57 points in six games, and going back to the beginning of last year, only one team has scored more than 21 points versus the Gators – we’re talking 21 games!
Don’t be fooled by Georgia’s 34-10 win over Vanderbilt in its most recent game two weeks ago. The Bulldogs are still way down this year, and they’re catching an angry Florida team – one that has won 17 in a row (16 by double digits) and one that beat a Matthew Stafford-led Georgia squad 49-10 last year – at the wrong time. Lay the points.
6♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Texas at OKLAHOMA STATE +9
Snapped a four-game FREE winning streak on Friday when the Bulls got destroyed by the Celtics. Today starts another winning streak as I am coming wiht a comp play on Oklahoma State as the Cowboys host Texas.
The Longhorns have won 11 straight contests, but they haven’t looked like the machine a second-ranked team in the country should. Texas went to Missouri and scored a 41-7 win as 13-point road favorites last week, but tonight, this is Oklahoma State’s game and it’ll come right down to the wire.
I’m grabbing the points with the Cowboys in this one as they’ve rattled off five straight wins (2-0-1 ATS) since blowing it at home to Houston, losing 45-35 as a 15 ½-point favorite on Sept. 12. Oklahoma State went to Baylor and crushed the Bears 34-7 as a 9 ½-point road favorite. Senior QB Zac Robinson was amazing against Baylor, going 23-of-27 for 250 yards, three TDs and zero INTs.
Texas barely beat Oklahoma State a year ago, winning 28-24 as an 11 ½-point underdog. They’ve won 11 straight meetings with the Cowboys, but the last two clashes have been decided by three and four points respectively. Oklahoma State is averaging 37 points a game to go with 417.6 yards per outing and 185.6 rushing yards per game.
Longhorns’ QB Colt McCoy has thrown eight INTs this year, and I know he’s been completing an unbelievable percentage of his throws, but those picks could come back to haunt him, especially against a defense that will by flying to the ball today.
Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 37 points a game with QB Zac Robinson leading the way as he’s completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 194 yards per game and 11 TDs against just two INTs.
Yes, Texas has won 11 straight in this rivalry, but there’s no way the Longhorns cover this number. Grab the points with the Cowboys and enjoy tonight’s contest.
4♦ OKLAHOMA STATE