Dominic Fazzini
Louisiana Tech at IDAHO -3
I slipped Friday with my complimentary selection on West Virginia, but I'll be back on my feet today with another winner!
Idaho has been solid at home this season, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread. Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, has been horrible on the road, going 0-4 SU and ATS.
In fact, the Vandals are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and 7-1 ATS overall. And the Bulldogs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Idaho QB Nathan Enderle leads a balanced offensive attack that averages 31.5 points per game, and the Vandals should be able to move the ball consistently against Louisiana Tech.
Bulldogs QB Ross Jenkins is being blamed for many of the team's problems on offense, but coach coach Derek Dooley is sticking with him for today's game.
Idaho is coming off of a 70-45 loss at Nevada, and is going to look for a strong bounce-back performance today, and I think it will get it. Take the Vandals to cover the points easily in a home victory.
4♦ IDAHO
Stephen Nover
Southern Cal at OREGON +3
Yes, I know and respect USC's well-deserved big-game reputation.
But injuries, an upset loss, closer-than-comfort narrow victories and an inflated pointspread take a lot of the luster off USC for me.
USC suffered its annual loss to an inferior Pac-10 foe, losing to Washington. But what's troubling about the Trojans this season is they barely escaped with victories against Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oregon State.
Oregon is better than those teams. The Ducks have emerged from the ashes of a wretched opening-game home loss to Boise State, to reel off six straight wins, including five covers in a row.
Oregon is playing solid defense holding three of its last four foes to 211 yards or fewer. USC, on the other hand, has surrendered a combined 63 points and 849 yards in its last two games versus Notre Dame and Oregon State.
The Ducks are opportunistic, too, on defense with a Pac-10-leading 19 takeaways. USC freshman quarterback Matt Barkley has been picked off at least once in his past three games. The Trojans are going to need a strong ground game to help Barkley. Keep in mind, though, Stafon Johnson is out for the season after suffering a serious throat injury following a weight room accident and Joe McKnight was limited by sore hands last week.
Oregon is clicking offensively, too, when Jeremiah Masoli is under center. The Ducks are averaging 45.7 points and 484.7 yards per game the past three times the versatile Masoli has been the quarterback. He missed Oregon's 24-10 win against UCLA two weeks ago because of knee injury. But Masoli was back last week in the Ducks' 43-19 win over Washington, a team that knocked off USC.
The Trojans haven't done well lately when venturing into the state of Oregon losing their last three games there. One of those defeats was two years ago to Oregon, 24-17, during their last trip to Autzen Stadium.
USC has only covered once the past seven times it has been road chalk. The Trojans continually get overpriced by the oddsmaker. They are 7-15 against the spread in their past 22 Pac-10 matchups.
The Ducks are 9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. They have covered in their last six conference games.
5♦ OREGON
Scott Delaney
UCLA at Oregon State
With the World Series starting this week, and limited action on the board until the NBA gets started, I am going to lookahead to college football and roll to the Pac 10 for a free winner.
I like this number I am seeing with Oregon State against UCLA, and will play the Beavers in Corvallis.
I know Jacquizz Rodgers was banged up last week against Southern Cal, but nonetheless, the Trojans struggled to send Oregon State home with a loss, as the Beavers made USC's defense look vulnerable.
OSU quarterback Sean Canfield is a viable candidate for All-Conference honors in the Pac 10. He ranks fourth in the conference in pass efficiency and fifth in total offense.
Canfield should have no problem dissecting a rather bleak defense, which has allowed an average of 30 points per game over its last four outings.
Look, even though the Beavers lost in Los Angeles this past Saturday, it was an impressive effort that proved their legitimacy in this conference. Oregon State could easily see itself into the national rankings by playing with a ton of momentum this week and next (at California).
And at 4-3, just two games shy of being bowl eligible, the Beavers need to stockpile the wins. Lay the home chalk.
5♦ OREGON STATE
Tony Weston
Bad call with the Warriors last night as they have no answer at all for Steve Nash, who helped the Suns get past Golden State.
That’s fine because I’m giving you a winner today as I’m taking Cincinnati on the road at Syracuse.
The Bearcats come into this game one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, sitting a perfect 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS. So far this year Cincy has been dominating its opponents, beating them, on average, 40.7-13-7.
Last week as a 16-point favorite, the Bearcats cruised to a 41-10 victory at home against Louisville. On the road this year Cincinnati has gone 3-1 ATS and is on a 5-2 ATS run overall on the road.
Also, the Bearcats have covered in 7 of their last 8 conference while Syracuse has covered just once its last 5 games in conference. The Orange are also just 5-12 ATS their last 17 games in October and have covered in just 4 of their last 14 games when installed as a home underdog.
In this series, Cincinnati has 2-1-1 ATS its last 4 against Syracuse and is on a 4-0 SU winning streak against the Orange. In the last two meetings the last two seasons Cincy has beaten Syracuse by an average of 20 1/2 points per game.
The Bearcats are rolling to another easy victory over Syracuse in this one today.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Steve Duemig
One thing that we have learned in the course of this season is Iowa and laying DD's don't go together.. They have 4 wins by three points or less this year already with two of those team being far inferior to them, like ARK ST. Iowa is a team that plays down to their competition, and should have lost several times already! The fact that they are 8-0 will attract the favorite bettors who rarely even look at the numbers. The QB for Indy should be able to generate enough offense to keep this close
1♦ INDIANA
Tony Mathews
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -7
After two disappointing defeats at the hands of Iowa and Ohio State, the Badgers will come into this game after a much needed bye week. With a strong and stable offensive attack, Wisconsin averages more than 180 yards rushing as well as 210 passing yards per game. This week, they will face Purdue, a team that is the weakest conference opponent that the Badgers have come up against so far this year. Allowing an average of more than 155 yards rushing per game, the Boilers were defeated by lowly Illinois which managed to run for 180 yards last week, winning outright as well as covering the spread. Despite their loss to Ohio State, the Badgers outplayed the Buckeyes, while winning SU over Minnesota and Michigan State. In addition, while losing at home to the Hawkeyes, the Wisconsin defense allowed the running game only 65 yards at 1.7 yard per run with the defeat an unfortunate result of three interceptions.
Expect Wisconsin to dominate Purdue at the line of scrimmage and manage to force an adequate amount of turnovers. In fact, that has been the norm for the Purdue with the exception of last week’s game against pitiful Illinois. The Badgers do have a limited pass defense and its true that Purdue’s senior QB Joey Elliot passes for an average of 300 yards per game throughout 4 conference games, but Wisconsin is off the bye having had plenty of extra prep time. We expect this competition to be one of value as we’ll see the Badgers force Purdue into a one- dimensional attack. This situation should prove profitable since we have a home team off a bye, it’s late in the season, and teams in this situation are stronger; even more so when it comes to conference games.
Take the Wisconsin Badgers -7
Triple Threat Sports
Louisville (-) over Arkansas State
Cards come into this with a 2-5 record…but Arkansas St is only 2-4, and U of L has played a drastically tougher schedule. Line is based on recent Louisville losses (more on those in a minute) and the close loss by ASU against Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes were completely uninterested in that contest, as it was between games against Penn State and Michigan, and that more than anything was the reason the ASU score was close. As for Louisville, they beat Southern Miss in their last home game, positively should have covered at U Conn, and then last week lost to the #5 team in the nation in Cincinnati, hardly a shame. This Cardinal team is better than their record shows, and they will be 100% focused for this, something BCS schools rarely are for Sun Belt teams, especially later in the season. We look for this one to be closer to the Arky State score against Nebraska (a 38-9 loss) than the Iowa result, and as such we will lay the small number in this one.
Bob Balfe
Rutgers +7 over UConn
UConn has covered all seven games this year which is the reason why this is not a 3pt line. These two teams are evenly matched however UConn must be physically and emotionally drained after the death of Jasper Howard. This team almost pulled an upset at West Virginia, but had their hearts broken if the final two minutes of the game. If that wasn’t bad enough the team had to bury Howard this week and the pure adrenalin has run out as reality starts to set in as things get back to normal. Rutgers is looking to become bowl eligible with a win and right now their heads are a lot clearer then Connecticut’s which means a lot when betting on kids 18-22 years old. Take Rutgers.
DUNKEL
NY Yankees at Philadelphia
The Yankees look to build on their 8-1 record in Andy Pettitte's last 9 starts as a favorite. New York is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115)
Game 955-956: NY Yankees at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.790; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.652
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over
NBA
Portland at Houston
The Rockets look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 home games. Houston is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2)
Game 501-502: New Jersey at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.747; Washington 119.647
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 9; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 7 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Charlotte at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 109.112; Cleveland 127.372
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 18 1/2; 179 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 14; 183
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-14); Under
Game 505-506: Philadelphia at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.735; New York 117.836
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: Portland at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.323; Houston 125.798
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Detroit at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 118.805; Milwaukee 118.510
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 511-512: Sacramento at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 105.799; San Antonio 123.504
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 18; 199 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 15; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-15); Over
Game 513-514: Dallas at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 115.705; LA Clippers 112.506
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 193 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+4); Under
NHL
Buffalo at NY Islanders
The Sabres look to take advantage of a Islanders team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Buffalo is the pick (-150); according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-150)
Game 1-2: Carolina at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.950; Philadelphia 11.117
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under
Game 3-4: Edmonton at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.287; Boston 12.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under
Game 5-6: Atlanta at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.459; Ottawa 11.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-150); Over
Game 7-8: New Jersey at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.109; Tampa Bay 11.493
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105); Under
Game 9-10: Buffalo at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 13.158; NY Islanders 12.267
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-150); Under
Game 11-12: Toronto at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.753; Montreal 11.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-155); Over
Game 13-14: Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.746; Pittsburgh 12.332
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-210); Under
Game 15-16: Florida at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.010; St. Louis 12.172
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
Game 17-18: Dallas at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.231; Nashville 11.294
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+110); Under
Game 19-20: Anaheim at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.466; Phoenix 11.751
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-145); Under
Game 21-22: Detroit at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.496; Calgary 12.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Over
CFL
Saskatchewan at Hamilton
The Roughriders look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 meetings in Hamilton. Saskatchewan is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1)
Game 253-254: Saskatchewan at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.421; Hamilton 107.711
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 55
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1); Over
Game 255-256: Calgary at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 112.926; BC 113.131
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary 1 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: BC (+1 1/2); Under
LT Profits
The Idaho Vandals have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the country at 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread, but after being underrated all year, they may now have crossed over to overrated status here vs. Louisiana Tech.
Please note that six of the seven covers by Idaho this season have come in an underdog role, and the only time they were favored, they covered vs. a terrible Hawaii team that has a worse defense than Idaho does.
Yes, the Vandals can score on most teams, but points will not come as easy vs. the stiff Bulldogs defense, and we do not trust the Idaho defense to win this game for them. After all, that unit is surrendering a poor 30.8 points and a whopping 401.6 total yards per game, and they were exposed big time when Nevada hung a 70 on them last week.
Conversely, Louisiana Tech is much more defensive oriented, as they are only allowing 22.1 points per game. They have done an excellent job of containing passing attacks, as they only allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt. That should neutralize Idaho quarterback Nathan Enderle somewhat here, as should the fact that the Bulldogs running game, which is averaging 172.0 rushing yards per game, is quite capable of keeping the Vandals offense on the sideline.
The bottom line here is that Louisiana Tech has the far superior defense and they have an excellent running game, a couple of traits we love to see in any underdog.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +3
Tom Freese
Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames
Prediction: Over
Detroit is 8-3 OVER their last 11 road games and they are 35-16-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest. The Red Wings are 4-0 OVER when their opponent scored 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 9-4 OVER vs. Northwest Division teams. Calgary is 9-2 OVER their last 11 games overall and they are 6-1 OVER their last 7 home games. The Flames are 8-2 OVER vs. Western Conference teams and they are 4-0 OVER their last 4 meetings with the Red Wings. PLAY ON 'OVER'
BIG AL
New York at Philadelphia
You would think the Phillies would feel great about their position heading into tonight having left New York with a 1-1 split and now getting to play three straight at home where they've been so tough in the post-season. Yet it's the Yankees that have the momentum right now and most people feel that they are still the favorites to win this series. In fact, they are a slight favorite in the game tonight with their master of the playoffs, lefthander Andy Pettitte heading to the mound to try and add to his illustrious post-season record. Pettitte is like the hot goalie on an NHL team heading to the Stanley Cup, as it seems that the post-season is HIS season right now. The Phillies are hoping that Cole Hamels can get hot as well, like he was in last year's post-season because so far Hamels has not been the same pitcher he was a year ago. But there are some encouraging signs for the 26-year-old southpaw, like his 12:2 strikeouts-to-walks ratio so far in the post-season, which indicates that there's probably nothing wrong with his mechanics and he just needs to settle down and try and pick his spots better. Pitching Hamels third in the rotation instead of second should help him in those departments, as he is clearly more comfortable starting at Citizens Bank Park, sporting a 3.76 ERA there in 2009 vs. 4.99 on the road. Citizens Bank, like Yankee Stadium really opens up and plays very cavernous when it's colder out.
PLAY UNDER
Jimmy the Moose
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders
The Sabres are 8-1-1 to start the season. Buffalo is averaging 3.2 GPG while the D and goaltending have been outstanding allowing an average of 1.90 GPG. On the road the Sabres are a perfect 4-0 and if you can believe it the goaltending is even better allowing an average of 1.25 GPG. Dating back to last year the Sabres have now won 7 straight on the road. Buffalo is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Islanders have won their last 2 games both against strong team in the Eastern Conference, the Rangers and Capitals. Offensively they are averaging 2.3 GPG while allowing an average of 3.25 per contest and that will see you lose a lot more games than you'll win. Going back to last year the Islanders are 3-9 in their last 12 home games. Over their last 70 games the Islanders are a horrible 19-51 and this coaching staff and management is trying to change the culture of the team and with the moves they made this off-season they are headed in the right direction.
Over the last 22 meetings between the teams the Sabres are a money making 16-6. Buffalo has won 7 of their last 10 trips to Long Island. The Buffalo coaching staff will have this team ready for a young energetic New York team and they'll leave Long Island with the two points.
Play on the Buffalo Sabres -