Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Virginia @ North Carolina
PICK: Virginia +14.5
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visitors: Although the Cavaliers or 0-3 to start the season, they are coming off a bye-week and I look for them to be prepared as they head into their matchup vs. North Carolina. After two-sub par games to begin the season whey they only scored 14 points in each, Virginia broke out in its last game with 34 points, but still came away with a loss as Southern Mississippi put up 37. I look for head coach Al Groh to continue to build confidence in his offense though and to implement the same offensive scheme that they used against Southern Mississippi in this weeks contest. While Virginia is 0-5 SU its last five overall, it's an awesome 10-1 ATS its last 11 vs. North Carolina. After winning their first three games for the first time in 12 years, the Tar Heels fell flat against the Yellow Jackets and lost their ACC opener for the ninth consecutive year last week. They generated only 154 yards in total offense and were down 17-0 before scoring on a long pass play in the fourth quarter. Virginia has had great success vs. North Carolina, and coming off their bye-week, I look for the well-rested CAVALIERS to keep it just close enough to come away with the ATS victory and look for North Carolina to fall to 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite.
Matt Fargo
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South Florida @ Syracuse
PICK: Syracuse +7
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I used South Florida on Saturday as it was able to go into Tallahassee and take out Florida St. For the Bulls they were without quarterback Matt Grothe and that was actually one of the reasons that I backed them as teams that lose a leader tend to step up in their very next game to make up for that fallen teammate. That was definitely the case on Saturday and now we can actually use that against them. It was pretty clear that South Florida used a ton of energy against the Seminoles and now trying to get up once again in another road get will be extremely difficult if not close to impossible. Not only that, but this is a definite letdown situation even though it is the Big East opener for the Bulls. Syracuse is coming off a less than inspiring victory over FCS Maine on Saturday as it geared up for Big East Conference action. The victory made it two straight for the Orange who could very well be 3-1 right now if not for an overtime loss in their opener against Minnesota. Syracuse has never defeated South Florida as it is 0-4 and has been outscored by 26.8 ppg in those four losses while getting outgained by at least 245 total yards in each of those contests. While that normally would not be a good sign here we have to remember this is a totally different Syracuse team than what we have seen in those other four years. Those first four meetings came in the Greg Robinson era and we all know how that went as the Orange averaged 2.5 wins per season and they have already almost topped that average this season. The players believe in new coach Doug Marrone and it is evident with seeing the attitude on the field. One of the big stories this season has been about Orange quarterback Greg Paulus and how his transition would be from hoops to football. It has been pretty smooth thus far as he made one crucial mistake in that Minnesota game but other than that he has been pretty solid. Paulus has completed 68 percent of his passes (78 of 114) for 888 yards and six touchdowns along with a 144.2 passer rating, good for 41st in the nation. After throwing three interceptions in his first two games, he has just one pick in his last two games so he is becoming better familiarized with the offense and with the college game as a whole. The Orange are struggling to run the ball but they are making up for it on the defensive end as they are 13th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 83 ypg and 2.7 ypc, both of which are better than what the Bulls are allowing (112.2 ypg and 3.4 ypc). On offense South Florida relies heavily on the rush and will do so again here so Syracuse needs to continue that strong defense. Syracuse falls into a very solid contrarian situation as well. Play against road teams that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.7 ppg. Also, Syracuse is a solid 12-1 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home victory by 17 or more points. It is also 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The Bulls meanwhile are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. Play Syracuse Orange
Carlo Campanella
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SMU at TCU
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TCU (3-0) hosts SMU (2-1) on Saturday knowing that they've won 8 of the last 9 meetings and that the home team is now 9-4 SU in this series. Since the 1999 meeting, TCU has beaten SMU by an average of 25 points per game! SMU already has more wins this season than all of last year, when they ended at 1-11 SU. SMU lost for the first time this season in their last game, 27-30, at Washington State back on September 19th. We find SMU at 2-11 ATS on the road after a loss by 6 or less points. While this is their 3rd straight road game, they head to TCU off their "bye" week, but often return rusty, as their 0-2 SU record following a week of rest behind Head Coach June Jones indicates. Laying the double digits with TCU, as they improve on their extremely profitable 18-3 (86%) ATS record at home against opponents owning a .600% or better win percentage.
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7* Play On TCU
Ohio State vs. Indiana
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Indiana (3-1) almost pulled the Conference upset last Saturday, but fell at Michigan, 33-36, as 18 point Dogs. That hard fought game was their first loss of the season, but was also their Big Ten opener and things will only get tougher from here. We find Indiana at 4-9 SU off a loss under Head Coach Bill Lynch and now they'll host Ohio State (3-1) this Saturday, who is coming off a 30-0 shutout victory over Illinois in their Big Ten home opener. Ohio State plays enters their first Conference road battle winning 14 STRAIGHT in this series, while beating Indiana in the last 5 meetings by an average of 30 points per game! This Ohio State crew is on a 15-0 SU winning streak on the road against Big Ten opponents and have been road warriors behind Head Coach Jim Tressel while posting a 29-9 SU road mark. Must lay the points with road Favored Ohio State as they're extremely profitable in this role, owning a 12-1 ATS record on the road against teams with a .667% or better win percentage.
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7* Play On Ohio State
Alex Smart
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LSU @ Georgia
PICK: Georgia -3
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The Georgia Bulldogs with a 3-1 record (18) host the 4-0 LSU Tigers(4) in a key SEC tilt this Saturday afternoon. Les Miles side despite of a perfect record has not looked that impressive this season ( at least to me), and almost lost to Mississippi State last week by a 30-26 count. Meanwhile, the Dawgs after starting their season with a lack luster loss at Oklahoma State have won 3 straight, and look to be moving in the right direction because of a offense that is starting to finally click, now averaging 30.8 PPG. Last week Georgia took out a pretty good Arizona State squad by a 20-17 score, and are capable of an upset effort here in this spot. The bottom line: Georgia's D, has been suspect this season, but LSU's offense has been less than consistent , so being able to take advantage of the Dawgs, vulnerabilities are far from certain. When two respected fairly evenly matched conference programs go head to head, a closely contested affair that favors the team playing in front of its own fans a viable bet at a FG or less. Final notes & Key Trends: Georgia has won 3 straight meetings and 6 of the L/8. LSU is 0-9 ATS after winning 3 or more straight contests SU. The Tigers are also 7-21 ATS in their 29 conference games, and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as 3 point dogs or less........Play on Georgia
Sean Murphy
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Michigan @ Michigan St.
PICK: Under 57.5
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This looks like the perfect spot to flip the switch on the books and back the under as the Wolverines and Spartans renew their rivalry in East Lansing.
The over is a combined 6-1 in these two teams' first seven lined games this season, but that only serves to give us additional value with the under this week.
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Note that Michigan has faced four weak defensive teams so far this season, Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, and Indiana. All four of those teams are allowing at least 22 points per game.
Of course Michigan State doesn't exactly qualify as a strong defensive squad. They're allowing over 25 ppg so far this season. However, they've faced tough offensive opponents in Central Michigan, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin, with the latter two matchups coming on the road. In their season opener they held Montana State to just three points.
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This will be Michigan's first road game of the season, and I expect to see a drop off in their offensive production. Tate Forcier has been tremendous at QB, but he is a freshman, and we can expect him to struggle in his first road test.
The Spartans have been pretty easy to figure out from a totals perspective recently. The over was a perfect 5-0 in their five road games last season, and is already 2-0 in their first two away dates here in 2009. In East Lansing, we've seen a much different story unfold. The under went 6-1 in their seven home games last season. Their first two games here this season have played to 47 and 56 points, both staying under Saturday's posted total.
The over is 4-1 in the last five matchups in this series, however only one of those five games played over 56 points in regulation time. That came back in 2005 when the likes of Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Drew Stanton, and Javon Ringer were leading the offenses.
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I believe that both of these defenses are far better than they've shown, and expect to see a lower-scoring game that the oddsmakers are calling for. Note that last year's total was set at 44.5 points. This is the highest total we've seen in this series since 2005. Take the under.
David Malinsky
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Northwestern @ Purdue
PICK: Northwestern +7
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We are not sure who the better team is in this contest, something that can rarely be said about this pointspread range. And with no major matchup problems to overcome, and an underdog that fits into the “tough out” category awfully well, we get plenty of points to work with in a game that should go to the final possession before we know the outright winner.
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Pat Fitzgerald is now in his fourth season at Northwestern, which means that many of his own recruits are in the starting lineup, and the Wildcats have taken on his persona – a gritty bunch that plays beyond the level of athleticism, which produces some good football, but not necessarily the kind that impresses the betting public all that much. That explains why we see this line despite the tremendous showing by Fitzgerald and his team in this role LY – they were Big 10 road underdogs three times, at Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan, winning all three of the games outright, and shattering the pointspread by a combined 38 points in the process. That was on top of outright dog wins when taking double figures at Michigan State and Iowa in the two previous seasons. And in their head-to-head battle against these Boilermakers in Evanston it was an easy 48-26 win. Yes, that was with C. J. Bacher at QB instead of Mike Kafka, but the more we see of Kafka the more we like. His arm brings the ability to stretch the field and make a lot of different patterns possible, and so far it has been a 72.2 percent completion rate on 133 attempts, with 10 different receivers catching at least two passes, and four grabbing 11 or more. It makes this a difficult attack to defend even if you have good personnel, but Purdue’s pedestrian defense brings nothing special to the table.
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Meanwhile the Northwestern defense has been a disappointment so far, but will only get better now that Sherrick McManis and Nate Williams are back in the lineup again. And while part of that disappointment has been back-to-back losses in games in which they led in the 4th quarter vs. Syracuse and Minnesota, with a -3 turnover differential in those games taking a toll, those results are part of why we get the value that we do for this setting. A Purdue team mired in a three-game losing streak, including that physically and emotionally draining loss vs. Notre Dame on Saturday night, does not bring the athleticism, experience or the confidence to be able to exert any control of this game flow, especially with Joey Elliot and the passing game bringing little ability to stretch a defense down the field (none of his 83 completions have gone for more than 38 yards, with six interceptions already). Boilermaker wins in Big 10 play will have to be methodical because that is all that the cupboard brings, and they will be hard-pressed to even win this one SU, much less get any kind of margin.
Black Widow
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1* on Mississippi State +6
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Mississippi State should have upset LSU last week in a 26-30 home loss, but they'll quickly put it past them and look forward to facing Georgia Tech at home Saturday. It will be easy for the Bulldogs to get over their loss to the Tigers, especially considering Georgia Tech beat Mississippi State 38-7 last year. But this is a completely different Bulldogs' team, starting the season 2-2 with a huge upset of Vanderbilt 15-3 two weeks ago. Now that they've seen the triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets last year, they'll be much better prepared to face it the second time around. Mississippi State is giving up just 129 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry thus far, and they've faced primarily running teams such as LSU and Vanderbilt which makes those totals even more impressive. The Bulldogs are rushing for 204 yards per game and a solid 4.4 yards per rush. Four turnovers cost the Bulldogs last year in their loss to Georgia Tech, but now playing at home don't expect them to make the same mistakes, especially after turning the ball over 4 times last week against LSU. This team comes out with a mindset to take care of the ball and to get revenge following their loss to the Yellow Jackets last year. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Mississippi State and the points.
Dave Busk
Take San Diego State (-17) over New Mexico State
Tough start to the Brady Hoke era at San Diego State getting off to a 1-3 start and their one win was vs. Southern Utah. In may take a while for Hoke to get the type of players he wants to help build this program but he does have 15 starters back from last year team. While this number seems high I don’t think it justify just how bad New Mexico State is. They to have a new coach in Dewayne Walker. Walker is finding out quickly that the offense is missing recently departed quarterback Chase Holbrook big time after the Aggies put up just 97 passing yards last week vs. a horrible rival New Mexico. After four games New Mexico State is averaging just 14.75 points a game vs. the likes of Idaho, Prairie View, UTEP and New Mexico. With State coming off that win vs. a bad but still a rival New Mexico I can see San Diego State taking out some frustrations vs. this week road dog.
Vegas Sports Informer
Take SMU (+28) over TCU
I think that TCU will win this game but that they will win by just three touchdowns. SMU is a solid 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record and TCU is just 7-16 ATS against teams hailing from Conference USA.
John Anthony
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Temple vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Temple -6
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You know that your program has been down and out when you've lost four straight to Temple. You'd think the Eagles would have this one circled on the calender but the EMU's are already in a world of hurt at 0-3, outscored 55-99, and your starting QB out with a knee injury. Temple has to be on confidence overload off blowout win over Buffalo and prior series domination. EMU just 1-5 ATS as MAC home dog vs NON-Michigan schools and that number doesn't figure to improve here. Take Temple.
Dennis Macklin
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Clemson vs. Maryland
Take Clemson -13
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It looks like the end of the line for likeable HC Ralph Freidgen as his hapless Terps help run him outa town with (9, L2 Games) turnovers. Maryland 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS with 38-35 win over juggernaut James Madison and were boatraced by the Tigers (30-3 end 3Qs) who figure here (visitor has won L4) and have speed demons Spiller and Ford. Clemson early and often in 41-10 romp-in-the park 38-14 win.
Jeff Allen
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Tulsa vs. Rice
Take Tulsa -16
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This is a case where you can throw techs right out the window. Covering big road numbers hasn't been a Golden Hurricane forte but UT is on a 9-3 run as a DD fave covering both opportunities this year. Grabbing points with Rice at home was almost automatic (17-6 L23) but this is as bad a Rice team as we've had in recent memory, the Owls off a 36-17 (+7) home spanking by an injury decimated Vandy in latest. Tulsa with bye on deck so no reason to take foot off the pedal. Take Tulsa.
Cajun Sports Wire
Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles
Selection: 2* Florida State Seminoles -4
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Bobby Bowden’s troops make their way to Chestnut Hill to face ACC rival Boston College on Saturday. Boston College is coming off an OT win over Wake Forest while the Seminoles are licking their wounds after losing at home as a two touchdown favorite to little brother University of South Florida.
Boston College has struggled this season and almost blew the game with Wake last week leading 24 to 10 at the halfway point of the fourth quarter and their defense couldn’t hold the lead it took overtime to finally secure the “W”.
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Eagle’s freshman QB Dave Shinskie will face a much tougher opponent this week with the FSU defense more athletic and certainly faster than that of the Wake Forest team he saw last week. BC passing attack was 18 of 29 for 228 yards in the win over the Deacons and their rushing attack added an additional 170 yards over land. They will find the going much tougher this week especially with the Noles speed on the defensive side of the ball.
A week earlier the Boston College Eagles faced Clemson which has similar speed on defense and they held the Eagles to 29 yards rushing on 28 attempts and they were 5 of 21 for 25 yards through the air. Now we must remember that this game was halted due to weather a couple times and it was a rain soaked field. Against Kent State which is well below average on the defensive side of the ball the Eagles only rushed for 126 yards and passed for 223 in the win. They do not have the talent or playmakers to facilitate a win over the Seminoles on Saturday.
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FSU is led by QB Christian Ponder who has thrown for more than 1000 yards this season and he has completed over 66 percent of his passes to this point. In their win over BYU in Provo they rushed for 313 yards and Ponder was 22 of 28 for 199 yards through the air. Against South Florida last week they only rushed for 19 yards and passed for 269 on 25 of 37 passing attempts. We expect to see the FSU team that performed so well against BYU on the road.
The Seminoles are playing with revenge for a 27 to 17 home loss last season to the Eagles. The key play in that game was an 87 yard interception return for a touchdown that gave BC an early 14 to 0 lead that they never relinquished.
The BC Eagles are 0-4 ATS as a host in this series and FSU is 5-1 ATS when playing with conference revenge. The road team has also won and covered the last four in this series and Bowden’s troops have covered three of their last four as road chalk. The Noles are 15-3 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a SU win. Key Angle for this contest is FSU is 7-0-1 ATS the game following their last 8 SU losses.
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A check of the database reveals a CFB System that is active for today’s game and it says to Play AGAINST a home team (not a favorite of 14+ points) off a home SU win of less than 41 points against Wake Forest. These home teams are a miserable 0-12 ATS and have averaged losing to the number by 12.5 points per game.
We look for the Seminoles to continue with what they have done in the past and that is to get the SU and ATS win following a SU loss. Quick note FSU is a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread dating to last season when playing away from home. Lay the short price as the Noles grab the SU and ATS win on Saturday in Chestnut Hill.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: FSU Seminoles 29 Boston College Eagles 18
Wunderdog
Temple at Eastern Michigan
Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5
There appears to be one given each year in the MAC. That given is that Temple won't win the conference championship, and neither will Eastern Michigan. It is hard to imagine the Owls in this spot as nearly a TD favorite on the road. The fact is that this Owls team is 6-32 ATS off a straight-up win - hardly the kind of team you want your money on. They have beaten Eastern Michigan two straight, but have failed to cover in either one and now are a road favorite. The last 10 times the Owls have taken on this role, they have failed to get the money in seven of them. The Eagles have chased an ATS loss with an ATS win in four of their last five and the Eagles are also flying high in October at 13-5 ATS. So once they get their wings in September, they have become a bad team that delivers the cash. Temple beat up on Buffalo last game 37-13. This team hasn't had many big wins over the past fifteen years, notching just 12 wins by a margin of 17+ points. In the next game after the big wins, they have gone just 2-10 ATS. It looks ugly from both sides, but getting points has been pretty for Eastern Michigan, while the Owls don't seem to take to layin’ them. Eastern Michigan gets the call
Freddy Wills
Florida State vs. Boston College
Take Boston College +4
So close to being 3-1 on free college football picks, but we will tip our caps to Houston for stopping Texas Tech on 4th and goal and then driving the length of the field for the win 29-23. Saturday we will have our free pick on Boston College as they face the confusing Florida State team that we have seen play well against Miami, and BYU, but terrible against State, and South Florida last weekend. One may say this team is now very motivated after last week's poor offensive showing, but I agree to disagree. BC has a very sound defense and ranks 16th in the country against the pass and is 18th in total defense with their 25th rank against the run. They are also very solid in the red zone and they got a boost last weekend from MLB Mike McLaughlin who helped them take down Wake Forest in OT. The BC team that could not score a point against Clemson is different as they changed some things up against Wake when they started veteran QB David Shinskie who is opening up the running game for the Eagles. Shinskie spent years playing baseball and is 25 years old. The leadership he brings is an intangible that BC has needed. WR Jarvis said, "In the huddle I can feel a different presence. It's a little similar to what I felt with Matt Ryan with their leadership." I absolutely love hearing that from a player as QB is the most important position on the field. Florida State got pushed around last weekend against South Florida and I expect BC to get some pressure. On the other side of the ball for FSU they continue to give up big plays and they rank 115th against the pass. I just don't see a disciplined BC defense giving up many points especially at home. They will limit the Seminoles trips to the red zone with field goals and keep this game within a TD all game long.