Marc Lawrence
Northwestern at Purdue
Prediction: Northwestern
The Wildcats travel to Purdue to take on the Boilermakers in this important Big 10 battle looking to make amends for a 14-point lead they blew in the 4Q at Minnesota last week. Northwestern is 14-2 ATS on the road versus an opponent off back-to-back losses while Purdue is just 7-14-1 ATS in games after taking on Notre Dame including 1-7 when facing an opponent off a loss, we'll grab the points with the Wildcats in this early kickoff.
John Martin
1 Unit on Georgia -3
Georgia catches LSU in a good sport here with the Tigers having Florida up next. Yes, the Tigers will be up for this game, but they are certainly more interested in their showdown in Baton Rouge with the Gators than they are with this game against the Bulldogs. Quietly, Georgia is one of the best teams in the SEC with a 3-1 record after losing to Oklahoma State to open their season. This is the most resilient team in the country so far, escaping with a 4-point win over South Carolina, an 11-point win at Arkansas and a 3-point win over Arizona State. The Bulldogs are battle-tested which will help them pull out this huge SEC clash against undefeated LSU. But the Tigers could easily be 2-2 right now, beating Washington by just 8 points and Mississippi State by just 4 points last week. Both teams are escaping with wins this year, but the edge in this game goes to Georgia with home-field advantage. LSU is 0-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. This team hasn't been very good with a lot of expectations, and with Florida up next, the Tigers will not come out sharp enough to keep up with the fiesty Bulldogs. Cash in with Georgia as the favorite.
Brad Diamond Sports
Central Michigan over Buffalo
Shameful is the only descriptive adjective needed to cover the Buffalo horrible performance last week in Philadelphia. Clearly, Temple is not as good as the result so indicates. Here, look for the Bulls to be once again over valued by the lines makers. Sure, home dogs are the darling in our industry, but Buffalo can’t run the football or stop the run. KOD! The key for CMU is the effectiveness of QB LeFeour who last week crushed the Zips with 4 scoring passes. The Chips are 13-3 ATS in the month of October, 4-0 ATS on grass and 33-13 ATS overall. The road team in the series has been very solid at 4-1 ATS, while the home standing Bulls are 0-5 ATS in Buffalo.
DAVE COKIN
MICHIGAN / MICHIGAN STATE
TAKE: MICHIGAN
Michigans (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) second season under Rich Rodriguez is certainly working out better than his first in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have been a very exciting team, and QB Tate Forcier is establishing himself as one of the best young QBs in the game. Last weeks win was another thriller, a 36-33 comeback against Indiana, although Michigan did appear to benefit from a very controversial call late in the game that preserved the victory. The Wolverines brought in veteran coach Greg Robinson to run the defense, and the early returns are not so hot. They allowed 490 yards to Notre Dame and 179 yards rushing to Eastern Michigan. Michigan followed that up by relinquishing 467 yards, including 197 on the ground to the Hoosiers last week, so there is still loads of work to do on the stop unit. Injury note: Michigan starting center David Molk will miss three to five more weeks after breaking a bone in his foot.
Poor Michigan State (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) cant catch a break. Coach Mark Dantonio has gotten good production out of sophomore QB Kirk Cousins (7 TDs, 2 INTs), but continues to also use sophomore QB Keith Nichol (4 TDs, 2 INTs) in a 2-headed rotation. Offense hasnt been the problem, averaging 31 ppg. The defense has been poor, and the Spartans were run over last week, dropping a 38-30 decision at Wisconsin. That game was nowhere near that close, as MSU scored two very late TDs to make the final tally respectable. In a wild 33-30 loss at Notre Dame, the offense had 459 yards, but the defense gave up 437 (304 passing). The previous week Central Michigan stunned MSU in a come-from-behind 29-27 upset, but the Chippewas were absolutely the better team on the field in that contest. This pass defense is bad and faces another tough test here.
Michigan is a little bit phony at 4-0, but theyre finding ways to win and have loads of confidence. Michigan State is going the other way, and is finding ways to lose. The Wolverines are motivated by revenge from last years loss at Ann Arbor, and I think they're simply the better team at this juncture, so its Michigan plus the points for me.
Mike Wynn Sports
Michigan @ Michigan St Preview
In state rivals go head to head here Saturday as the Michigan Wolverines head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan St Spartans. Michigan off a wild win over Indiana last Saturday is still undefeated at 4-0 this season while Michigan St is off a loss at Wisconsin in their Big 10 road opener and they now stand at 1-3 this season. Rich Rodriguez has Michigan back on the college football map and ranked 22nd in the country but this team is making its first road trip of the season and will be playing in a very tough environment Saturday. Michigan St has now dropped 3 straight games and has yet to beat a Division 1-A program this season despite being very competitive in the losses. Both teams will be ready for this one so let’s take a look at the match up starting with the visiting Michigan Wolverines.
What a difference a year makes for this Michigan program. Last year the Wolverines managed just 3 wins all season and this year thanks to super freshmen Tate Forcier and some last second heroics, this team is 4-0. Freshmen QB Forcier has been very impressive completing 62% of his passes and running for 127 yards, but it’s his leadership and calm in clutch situations that have Michigan fans smiling. Twice this season Forcier has pulled the fat from the fire leading his team down the field for late game wins. In week 2 it was a TD toss with 11 seconds left capping off a 58 yard drive with 2:13 left. Last week it was 52 yard drive capped off with Forcier 26 yard TD toss with 2:29 to go. Forcier does have a nice group of backs working behind as Minor, Brown and Robinson are all averaging over 5.7 yards per carry, and the Wolverines have 6 different guys with 6 or more catches. Offensive line certainly isn’t dominant this season but they should get better as the season progresses. Defensively the Wolverines probably aren’t going to pitch any shut outs this season allowing 25.7 points per game and 363 yards per contest. Make no mistake it all revolves around Forcier in Michigan this season and it’ll be interesting to see how the youngster performs in his first road test.
Michigan St Spartans off 3 straight losses have to wonder a bit about what kind of team they have. Despite the bad loss late to Central Michigan, the Spartans bounced back and looked good in nearly knocking off Notre Dame in South Bend, but then came the loss at Wisconsin where the Spartans were handled rather easily. So which team is going to show up here Saturday? A Lot of it has to do with QB Kirk Cousins who looked good against Notre Dame but then not so good against Wisconsin. Cousins has shown he can run the offense effectively at times but than shows he can make stupid decisions at critical times. Michigan St does have another QB in Keith Nichol who’s seen substantial time already and head coach Dantonio won’t hesitate to use him if Cousins struggles Saturday. Regardless of who’s quarterbacking Saturday he’ll look a lot better with a running game. Ray & Caper are the main RB’s for the Spartans and the receiving corps relies heavily on a trio of receivers led by the steady senior Blair White. Defensively the Spartans have been fairly stout against the run but the pass defense is giving up 65% completions this season. No doubt the Spartan defense will be fired up at home for this one but they’ll have their hands full against the duel threat QB Forcier.
Looking at the trends and angles here Saturday we find that this has been an even series when playing in East Lansing. Both teams are 4-4 straight up and ATS in the Last 8 meetings in East Lansing with the last 5 decided by a touchdown or less. Michigan St 12-4 straight up at home the last 16 but they’re a dismal 13-28 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival. Michigan is 24-15 ATS as an underdog since 1992 but just 5-5 ATS the last 10. The line on this game opened Michigan as a 2 point favorite but has since switched to Michigan St as a 3 point favorite as many expect the freshmen Forcier may not be as magical in his first road start in a tough environment. I think this will be another tight game that stays inside 1 score one way or another and I’m going to recommend a play on the over here Saturday. Both these offenses are putting up points this season with Michigan averaging 37.5 and Michigan St averaging 32.7 points a game. This has been an over series as 10 of the last 14 have gone over the total including 5 of the last 8 in East Lansing. Michigan St head coach Dantonio 13-3 over versus big 10 opponents since taking the reigns and the Spartans are 6-1 over off a conference loss. Should be a dandy game with plenty of points and we’ll take an over here Saturday.
#1 Sports
LSU @ Georgia
Louisiana State: The Tigers (4-0, 2-0 SEC, #4 AP) were nearly single-handedly bailed out last week by 6’3” 225 junior FS Chad Jones in a 30-36 victory at Mississippi State. Jones ripped off a 93-yard punt return touchdown to open the 4th quarter and then when faced with a Bulldog 1st and goal from the 2 in the final two minutes, Jones deflected a 3rd down pass before stuffing QB Tyson Lee one inch from paydirt on 4th down…
As usual, LSU is stiff on defense and Jones (20 T, 2 INT) isn’t the only quality player – in fact not the only from the same family. His brother (formerly AL Jones) 6’3” 263 senior LDE Rahim Alem (16 T, 4 ½ TFL. 2 S) leads an experienced crew up front that gets plenty of penetration up the middle with rotating tackles 6’4” 311 senior Al Woods (13 T, 1 ½ TFL), 6’3” 298 senior Charles Alexander (12 T, TFL), and 6’1” 292 junior Drake Nevis (15 T, 3 TFL, S) all capable of blowing up plays. Solid everywhere else, forcing turnovers has been the Tiger hallmark so far – especially in the backfield where Jones, 6’1” 182 senior LCB Chris Hawkins (22 T, TFL, INT), 6’0” 191 sophomore SS Brandon Taylor (12 T, TFL, 2 INT), and 6’1” 211 sophomore RCB Patrick Peterson (14 T, INT, FR) have contributed 7 of the team’s 10 including Peterson’s 37-yard pick-six is Starkville. By the numbers, the Tiger defense allows 15.2 points per game on 134.8 yards rushing and 198.8 yards passing.
Head Coach Les Miles’s (46-11 in 5th season at Baton Rouge) offense has been less successful and currently ranks last in the SEC at 310.0 yards per game (103.2 rush yards, 179.8 pass yards) and 9th in points scored at 28.8 per game. The positive is they hang on to the ball with just 3 turnovers through 4 games (SEC-best +7 TO differential) and that begins with the conference’s youngest starting quarterback, 6’5” 220 sophomore Jordan Jefferson (62 of 101 for 708 yards, 3 TD, INT) who has throw just 1 pick in 6 career starts. 1st-team All-American 6’5” 322 LT Ciron Black (44 straight starts at the position) is a sure NFL 1st-round pick but the LSU line can be had up the middle where they average 6’3 ½” and just 286 pounds from guard to guard – and it shows. 6’0” 234 senior RB Charles “Chuck the Truck” Scott (43 for 180 and 0 TD) is nowhere near his 1174 yards/18 touchdowns rushing marks of 2008 although 6’0” 221 senior RB Keiland Williams (36 for 184 and 2TD) has been better. Given the time, Jefferson has 3 dynamite targets in 6’3” 240 senior TE Richard Dickson (8 for 84), 6’5” 206 junior WR Terence Toliver (17 for 266 and 2 TD), and 6’3” 206 senior WR Brandon Lafell (20 for 230 and 5 TD) who returned for his senior season and a 2010 draft class not so deep at receiver. He hasn’t busted one yet in the return or rushing game yet but keep an eye out for 5’5” 161 senior RB Trindon Holliday. As the reigning NCAA 100-meter dash champion and 8-time Track All-American, Holiday’s not just college football’s fastest player this season; he’s the fastest in college football history at 10.00 seconds in the 100.
Georgia: The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-0 SEC, #18 AP) survived a 20-17 home battle over Arizona State last week with a huge day from SEC Offensive Player of the Week 6’4” 207 sophomore WR AJ Green who not only grabbed 8 balls for 153 yards and a score but also blocked a Sun Devil field goal with the score tied at 17 in the 4th quarter.
Head Coach Mark Richt’s (85-23 in 9th season at Athens) offense has been explosive at times (30.8 points per game on 112.2 yards rushing and 245.0 yards passing) but there are issues. The loss of starting linemen Tanner Strickland and Trinton Sturdivant has injected 6’5” 328 sophomore LT Cordy Glenn and 6’4” 295 junior LG Chris Davis into the first team of a line that was young already with sophomores 6’3” 300 C Ben Jones and 6’5” 330 RG Justin Jones. Behind the wall, 6’1” 198 senior QB Joe Cox (67 of 110 for 980 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) has been simply spectacular at times (375 yards and 5 TD vs. South Carolina) in his bid to replace Mathew Stafford but has also got caught locking in on Green (25 for 428 and 4 TD), who has the squad in catches and receiving yards in each of their 4 contests. More looks to 6’1” 180 freshman WR Tavarres King (8 for 113 and TD), 6’1” 210 senior WR Michael Moore (12 for 126 and 2 TD), and 6’4” 236 sophomore TE Aron White (3 for 49 and TD) may yield less turnovers (5 interceptions and 7 lost fumbles) and will certainly produce one of the nation’s top passing attacks again this year. Sophomore backs 6’2” 222 Richard Samuel (62 for 281 and 2 TD) and 5’11” 210 Caleb King (22 for 114) replace 12th-overall draft selection and Denver Bronco Knowshon Moreno.
Turnovers have also been an issue for the Bulldog defense (second to last in the SEC at 29.8 points per game on 112.8 yards rushing and 243.0 yards passing), which has produced just a pair picks and a fumble (-9 TO differential), but after allowing 37 points to the Gamecocks and 41 points to the Razorbacks they did spark in the crunch last week, holding the Sun Devils to -13 yards in the 4th quarter. If that’s to be a sign of things to come, Georgia needs more pressure up front. 6’4” 248 freshman rush end specialist Cornelius Washington has racked a pair of sacks off the bench but in the base, the front of 6’3” 259 LDE Hoffman, 6’3” 300 senior LDT Owens, 6’5” 315 RDT Weston, and 6’2” 274 junior RDE Dobbs have combined to register just one with 7 ½ tackles for loss. At just 5’11” 225 he’s hard to find, but someone’s got to get a hat on junior WLB Rennie Curran who has piled up 39 tackles already. 5’8” 198 senior LCB Prince Miller (6 T) is going to have his hands full against the 6’5” Tolliver while the battle between LaFell and 5’10” 185 sophomore RCB Brandon Boykin (17 T, INT, 2 TFL) will be worth the price of admission.
SELECTION: Turnover differential between teams so clearly opposite in that category can’t help but be a major factor Saturday but so will special teams. The Bulldogs have blocked 2 kicks in 2009, Brandon Boykin has a 100-yard kick return to the house, Georgia P Drew Butler ranks 1st in the NCAA at 50.1 yards per, while Georgia K Blair Walsh is perfect this season with a pair of 50+ field goals. “Between the Hedges” we will throw the Dogs the bone. Take Georgia – 3.
Dave Miller
Michigan vs Michigan State
I would expect State to win a close one, but the way this season is going I could see a Michigan win due to some controversial ref call in RR's favor- just to tick Spartan nation off. Both defenses have not played well. First team to 40 wins. The NCAA Football Betting Line list Michigan State -2.5 favorites to Michigan heading into this Week 5 matchup.
Michigan needs a team effort not just Brandon Graham. Last years team maybe 50% of the players were 100% committed to the team where as this year they have 100% percent committed to the team. The Wolverines got all it could handle as a big favorite against Indiana last week and this will be the first trip away from Ann Arbor all season for a very young team. The NCAA Betting Line list the total for this Michigan vs Michigan State game is set at 56.5 points.
The Michigan State Spartans are ranked 22 on offense, averaging 438.5 yards per game. The Spartans are averaging 117.8 yards rushing and 320.8 yards passing so far this season. The Michigan Wolverines are ranked 30 on offense, averaging 422.2 yards per game. The Wolverines are averaging 240.2 yards rushing and 182.0 yards passing so far this season. The Michigan defense can clearly be scored upon but the offense has been able to do enough to win while averaging 240 rushing yards per game. College Football Predictions Bet on the total to go OVER.
Larry Ness
Washington @ Notre Dame
PICK: Washington +12.5
The Huskies visit South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish this Saturday and wouldn't it be something if Ty Willingham was invited to preside over the ceremonial coin-toss? The Irish come in 3-1 and the Huskies 2-2. Notre Dame opened the 2009 season with a 35-0 win over Nevada but each of its last three games have been decided in the final minute. Kyle McCarthy had an interception at the four-yard line with 57 seconds left to seal Notre Dame’s 33-30 win over Michigan State last week and a week earlier, Michigan’s Tate Forcier threw a 5-yard TD pass with 11 seconds remaining to beat the Irish 38-34. Clausen entered Saturday’s game slowed by a turf toe injury on his right foot and split time with Dayne Crist, who directed two TD drives with the Wildcat offense in the first half. Weis Clausen returned to the game when it got tight in the fourth quarter and the Irish took over trailing 21-17 with 3:41 to go. Clausen was the nation’s No. 2 passer coming in but he wasn’t himself, completing 15-of-26 for 171 yards with one TD and his first interception of the season. However, he found his rhythm in the final minutes, leading Notre Dame on a 12-play, 72-yard TD drive. Clausen was 6-of-9 in the drive, including the game-winning, two-yard TD pass to Kyle Rudolph with 24.8 seconds to play, which gave Notre Dame a 24-21 win over Purdue. Notre Dame beat Washington 33-7 last year in Seattle but this year's Huskies have already upset USC 16-13 at home on September 19 and given now-No.4 LSU fits before losing 31-23 on September 5. It's true that last week’s 34-14 loss at Stanford marked the school’s eighth straight road loss but Washington QB Jake Locker is more than capable of taking advantage of an Irish "D" which is still plagued by poor tackling. Clausen should be healthier this week but without WR Floyd (13 catches / 27.5 YPC / 5 TDs in just 10 quarters) who is out for the season and maybe RB Allen (326 YR / 5.5 YPC / 3 TDs in three games before missing the Purdue game) who could miss again with an ankle injury, the Irish offense may not be capable of covering a two-TD spread. Take the points.
King Creole
Toledo -4.5 vs Ball St.
For the early-AFTERNOON Saturday play on the TOLEDO ROCKETS.... here are the applicable Systems which suggest a double-digit road win against the Ball State Cardinals.
2-15 ATS: Game Five WINLESS home underdogs (Ball State) playing off a non-conference game.
Even though they are WINLESS, the Cardinals of Ball State have actually gotten the cash (ATS wins) in their last two games.... covering against Auburn and Army. That does not set up very well for them on Saturday.2-10-1 ATS: all College UNDERDOGS playing off BB SU road losses.... BUT BB ATS wins (Ball State)... if the last game was a non-conference game.
The Revenge angle for the ROCKETS seals the deal (they lost last year to the Cardinals 31-0).9-1 ATS since 2000: All GAME FIVE favorites of 8 < points playing with REVENGE off a SU win (TOLEDO).
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Nevada -4.5 vs UNLV
Tulsa -17 vs Rice
Single Plays
Utah St +23.5 vs BYU
Minnesota -3 vs Wisconsin
Central Michigan -7.5 vs Buffalo
Vanderbilt +10 vs Mississippi
Temple -7 vs E. Michigan
Penn State -7 vs Illinois
Michigan State -3.5 vs Michigan
Baylor -21 vs Kent
Texas Tech -34 vs New Mexico
Ohio State -17.5 vs Indiana
Arkansas -1.5 vs Texas A&M
SMU +28 vs TCU
Florida Atlantic -3.5 vs Wyoming
Georgia -3.5 vs LSU
VEGAS EXPERTS
Michigan at Michigan State
The SU winner has covered 13 of the previous 16 meetings and you can expect that trend to continue with a short number this time around. This game has always meant more to the Spartans, who at 1-3 come in with their backs against the wall. Michigan is a dreadful 3-8 SU and 1-10 ATS in road openers and to be honest is quite fortunate to be 4-0 considering close wins over Notre Dame and Indiana. Michigan State has not beaten Michigan in East Lansing since 2001 and you have to figure they will be eager to change that.
Play on: Michigan State
Game Time Sports Advisors
Auburn vs. Tennessee U
Play: Auburn +2.5
We are backing Auburn. Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Even factoring the home edge, this Tenn bunch doesn't do a lot of playing. They can talk the game, but can the play the game. Auburn will bring the D and an offense capable of putting up the points.
John Ryan
Penn State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois +7
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Illinois as they host Penn State set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Illinois will lose this game by 7 or fewer points and has a 46% probability of winning the game. PSU is obviously smarting from the humiliating loss last week at home to the hands of Iowa. They truly believed that they were a national contender and now they may not even be the Big-10 Champion. In fact, they could be out of the Big-10 race with a loss here today. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 66-31 for 68% winners since 2004 and has gone 43-18 over the past 3 seasons. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and sporting a win percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record. Illinois will be sharp on offense and one of the dominant reasons is that they have returned 8 starters and the QB from last year’s edition. The biggest factor in this game is that PSU will want to establish the run and probably will accomplish that task, but not extensively. AiS shows an 85% probability that PSU will rush for between 100 and 150 yards. Note that PSU is just 12-29 ATS when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. PSU offensive line has been horrid in all games – even against the inferior opponents and Iowa surely exposed it last week. The problems they have on the OL cannot be resolved in a week’s time. Illinois HC Zook is a strong 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Take Illinois.
Tom Stryker
Western Michigan vs. No Illinois
Play: Western Michigan +6.5
If Western wants to win a division crown, the Broncos know they must take care of business in the month of October. WMU head coach Bill Cubit has challenged his troops to focus on their next three games which are all MAC West wars against Northern Illinois, Toledo and Central Michigan.
Quietly, Western has won three in a row in this series by eight points combined. Before those three victories, the Broncos had dropped five straight (SU and ATS) to the Huskies. As stated, the previous three meetings between these two teams were all wars and the generous amount of points in this contest really makes Western attractive.
Offensively, the Broncos have a number of athletes at the skill positions to pull off this upset. Western quarterback Tim Hiller is currently just four touchdown passes away from setting a new Broncos record while running back Brandon West is tops in the conference in all-purpose yards with 6,207! With Hiller behind center, Western has averaged 271.3 passing yards per game which is good enough to rank 21st in the NCAA and 3rd in the MAC. Certainly, Hiller will excel matched up against a Northern stop unit that is ranked 95th in the nation and 11th in the MAC in Pass Efficiency Defense (141.6).
As a home favorite priced at -6 or more, the Huskies have lost their bite posting a shocking 2-11 ATS record. In this role coming off a straight up loss, NIU is a dismal 0-6 ATS. Northern will be able to run the football here. However, the Broncos have a quick strike offense and they’re capable of winning this game straight up on the field or slipping in the backdoor. Take Western Michigan!
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado State vs. Idaho
Play: Colorado State -3.5
The Rams are 7-2 as road favorites in this range and today are the beneficiaries of a solid 84% system that plays against Idaho. What we want to do is play on certain road teams from -25 to +3 if they are taking on a home team that comes in off a road dog win in a game they were getting 10 or more points. Idaho comes in off a big dog win at Northern Illinois. They have covered all 4 of their games this year. Winning 3 times as an underdog already this year. On Saturday however they are taking on a much improved Colorado.St team that is also 3-0 and coming off their first loss at Byu last week. Idaho is just 2-7 ats as dogs off a non conference game,1-7 in October and an over matched 3-21 vs winning teams. Lay the short number here.