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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 3,2009

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Charlie Scott

Washington U vs. Notre Dame
Play: Washington U +12

Notre Dame is College Football's public team just like the Yankees in baseball. The public perception of 3-1 s/u Notre Dame, is that their as good as their record. When the facts are Notre Dame is a mediocre football team that got lucky to beat two mediocre football teams their last 2 games in the final seconds. This years Washington team isn't the disaster 2008 was and will be competitive. If Washington QB Jake Locker played at USC he would be a Heisman canidate. Washington will be able to score points vs a suspect Notre Dame defense. Teams with defense's as bad as Notre Dame's should not be double digit favorites ! When Washington Head Coach Steve Sarkisian was offensive coordinator at USC he knew how to scheme vs Notre Dame and will do it again today.

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 8:06 am
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MTi Sports

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Indians are 0-12 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started and 0-12 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led. The Red Sox are a perfect 7-0 THIS season at home when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series and 8-0 THIS season when Josh Beckett starts as a favorite of more than 190, winning by an average of 4.4 runs per game. Consider the Red Sox on the run-line.

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 8:07 am
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Dave Price

1 Unit on USC -4

Cal wants this one badly, especially after what happened to the Bears last week, but I like USC by a TD Saturday as I feel its defense will be too good. It's hard to recover from a beating like Cal took last week. USC had the luxury of recovering from its bad loss to Washington against Washington State. Now that loss is further behind the Trojans and they can start focusing in on winning another Pac-10 title. They know they need to get past Cal to do so and I like them to do it. Plus, the Trojans pick up additional incentive to win today after a freak weight room accident crushed the throat of Stafon Johnson. They'll win this one for Johnson. Plus, the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings in this Pac-10 tilt. Take USC.

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 8:08 am
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Drew Gordon

South Florida at SYRACUSE +6'

Now on a 64-53 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Giants (+120) over the Padres 7-2 last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the South Florida/Syracuse match up.

Say it with me: L-E-T-D-O-W-N. This is a prime letdown spot for the Bulls, who are coming off a real nice upset win at Florida State, sans the injured Grothe, and now must somehow "get up" for the Orange. Bulls-backers beware, as not only does your team come into this game riding a little high in the saddle, but with a HUGE home game versus Cincinnati on deck Thursday, they could also get caught looking ahead.

From a trend standpoint, the Bulls have not fared well as a favorite on the road, going just 3-7 ATS over their L10 in that spot. When you add in the letodwn and lookahead factors, things do not bode well for the Bulls this afternoon on the road. Granted, Syracuse doesn't have many positive trends, but that's to be expected with a team returning from the basement of college football. The Orange are however, 5-1 ATS over their L6 games (3-1 ATS this season)!

So how do the Orange do it? Simple, they use what has been their strength, their rock-solid run defense, to slow down redshirt frosh QB B.J. Daniels, making only his second road start of his career. And while the Orange will get hurt thru the air at times, Syracuse now has a legitimate signal caller to counter with in Greg Paulus. Don't laugh, the one-time Duke PG, is completing 68% of his passes for a decent 6 TD to 4 INT ratio.

Bottom line, Syracuse comes into this contest having won 2 straight, with their QB Paulus playing extremely well over that span (71% completion). Granted, it came against lesser comp, but if ever the Orange are going to catch the Bulls napping, it would be today. Make no mistake, this is a situational nightmare for South Florida, and the fact they're starting a redshirt frosh on the road doesn't help. Orange keep this one within the number Saturday afternoon!

Take Syracuse plus the points over South Florida in this college football match up.

3♦ SYRACUSE

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 8:55 am
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BIG AL

LSU at Georgia

Poor Les Miles. Now that former coach Nick Saban's recruits are out the door, the Tigers are not the quality of team they were when they won the National Championship (notwithstanding their 4-0 record). Look for LSU to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, as the Tigers fall into an 0-9 ATS team situation: LSU is a dreadful 0-9 ATS off 3 or more wins! Also, Louisiana State is a poor 9-23 ATS in its last 32 SEC Conference Games. This season, LSU ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per game (310) and 9th in scoring (28 ppg). Take the Georgia Bulldogs in a blowout.

PLAY GEORGIA

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 9:00 am
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Jack Jones

Minnesota Golden Gophers -3

The Golden Gophers welcome undefeated Wisconsin to town this weekeend and they'll be ready to hand the Badgers their first loss of the season. Wisconsin has played a soft schedule to this point, winning 4 straight home games. They haven't done it with ease, either. The Badgers needed overtime to beat Fresno State, and they won by a mere 8 points against both Michigan State and Northern Illinois. Now they have to hit the road, and their first experience away from home won't be a pleasant one. The Golden Gophers have played the tougher schedule with road wins at Syracuse and Northwestern, and a home win over Air Force. Their only loss was to Cal, a game they were in the entire way but four turnovers ended up costing them in the end. Minnesota is the more battle-tested team to this point and experience will help them prevail Saturday. The Badgers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Wisconsin is a team that relies heavily on their running game, and the Golden Gophers have been stingy against the run this season, allowing just 3.3 yards/carry. That will be the key to a Minnesota victory Saturday. Take the Gophers.

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 9:11 am
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BettorsWorld

3* LSU +3.5 Over Georgia

3* Air Force +2.5 over Navy

3* Miami Fl + 7.5 over Oklahoma

3* Auburn +2.5 over Tennessee

3* Iowa -21 Over Ark St (Good up to -23.5)

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 9:12 am
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Chip Chirimbes

NC State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -2.5

Last week I had North Carolina State to upend Pittsburgh and a strong second half by the Wolfpack proved me right, this week Wake Forest has the advantage coming off an overtime loss to Boston College where they nearly racked up 500 yards in total offense. NC State All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson will return to earth after throwing four touchdowns in each of his last three games as the Deacons get a much needed win here.

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 9:12 am
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Bob Balfe

Notre Dame -12 over Washington

This is a must win for ND and head coach Charlie Weis. Washington did beat USC but let’s not forget USC is not what they once were and the starting QB was out of that game. Stanford really beat up on them last week and that’s all I needed to see. Coming to the East Coast against a big talented offense will be a challenge. Look for ND to roll. Take the Irish

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 9:13 am
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Jimmy the Moose

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders

The defending Stanley Cup Champions travel to Long Island to face a team that is trying to rebuild itself into a consistent contender. Several years ago the Penguins were right were the Islanders are now, a bad team that kept getting high picks in the draft. Pittsburgh drafted Crosby, Malkin and Fleury and the result have paid off large with a Stanley Cup. In June's draft the Islanders had the #1 pick and they selected forward John Tavares a prolific scorer in junior who will hopefully turn this franchise around. It may take some time but the Islanders are on the right path.

The Penguins opened the season last night by raising their Stanley Cup Banner and beating the New York Rangers 3-2 at home. The Penguins are a very solid team and are considered a Stanley Cup Contender again this season. With Crosby and Malikn, 1 and 1A every team must bring their A game if they hope to shutdown one of these superstars. Dating back to last season Pittsburgh is 36-16 in their last 52 games overall. In their last 54 vs. a team from the Atlantic Division they are 37-17.

This will be the Islanders home opener and the fans first chance to see John Tavares in a regular season games. Not much is expected from this team but the one thing that you must see is a team that work hard and compete. The Islanders closed out last season losing 5 of their last 6 home games. In their last 58 overall they are 16-42.

New York has a long way to go to becoming a team that has a chance to win each and every game. The selection of Tavares was very good and the Islanders had a very good draft overall and there is no doubt that GM Garth Snow has them headed in the right direction. The team is young and will play an energetic game. Pittsburgh has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and is just too talented and focused to lose this one.

Play Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5

 
Posted : October 3, 2009 11:07 am
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