Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 4

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at LA Dodgers
The Cardinals look to follow up last night's 10-9 win in the opener and come into today's contest with a 4-1 record in Lance Lynn's last 5 starts against the Dodgers. St. Louis is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+150)

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Washington (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 13.662; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.138
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over

Game 915-916: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.405; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.398
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+150); Under

CFL

BC at Hamilton
The Lions head to Hamilton tonight to face a Tiger-Cats team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. BC is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: BC (+3)

Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/2)
Game 495-496: Edmonton at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 115.542; Toronto 121.063
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Under

Game 497-498: BC at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 115.482; Hamilton 112.477
Dunkel Line: BC by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+3); Over

Harry Bondi

INDIANA (-13) over North Texas

We went against the Hoosiers in this spot last week for a newsletter Best Bet winner as Maryland (+4) rolled to a 37-15 outright victory. Indiana was in a dreadful situation last week as it was coming off a “Super Bowl” type of win against Missouri, but this week drops way down in class as it hosts a North Texas team that enters with a misleading 2-2 record. The Mean Green’s two wins have come against lightweights Nichols State and SMU, teams with a combined record of 0-9. Conversely, in the two games North Texas played against teams with a pulse (Texas and Louisiana Tech) it has been outscored by a whopping 80-28. In those two losses, North Texas was gashed on the ground and that’s bad news this week as it goes up against a Hoosier rushing offense that ranks 13th in the nation with 284 yards per game. Hoosiers have covered four out of seven the week after a straight-up loss and cash another winning ticket here.

Bryan Leonard

Air Force +4

In the last five years this game has gone to overtime three times. The other two contests were decided by 8 and 18 points with the later coming last year in a 28-10 Midshipmen victory. Air Force actually led Navy 10-7 at the half last year, so in the last five years 4 1/2 games have been played close to dead even. In that loss the Falcons only lost the yardage battle 327-313 as it was a -3 turnover disadvantage that did them in. Keep in mind Air Force had a 2-10 record last season and still played Navy even for most of the game. Navy has real issues on defense which makes them an unreliable road favorite. In fact, under Ken Niumatalolo the Midshipmen have never posted a winning record as a road favorite in any of his six seasons at Annapolis.

Red Dog Sports

Michigan vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers -3

Michigan has played poorly so far in 2014. Brady Hoke is still the coach of the Wolverines as they head to New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. QB Gary Nova has led the way for Rutgers. It is odd to see Rutgers in the Big Ten and odd to see them as field goal favorites against a program like Michigan but I think Rutgers wins by 7 to 10 points so take the -3.

Brad Diamond

Oklahoma vs. TCU
Play: Oklahoma -4

Horned Frogs start at home this Saturday with a huge game against the Sooners. Both units have top billing in the key twenty-five at ESPN. OU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while TCU is 3-0 SU & ATS. The Sooners wins have been against Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Tennessee and West Virginia. OU has CRUSED the opposition 179-43. Last weekend they were on a bye. TCU has wins over Samford, Minnesota and SMU. Interesting the Horned Frogs had 2 bye weeks in September which is nice edge before playing a team like Oklahoma. Inside the series Oklahoma (-8) won last season at home 20-17, and (-5) 24-17 at TCU in 2012.

Oklahoma finished 11-2 last season, taking out Saban and the Tide 45-31 in bowl action. They do have 14 returning starters and 48 lettermen on roster. The Horned Frogs were 4-8, while bringing back 16 starters and 47 lettermen. Obviously, both clubs are deep and talented. Oklahoma was our projected National Champion for 2014-2015. Total offense OU is ranked #47 (1,980) 44.8 points per game. TCU shows #91 in total offense (1,596) scoring at 44.7 points per game clip. Defensively we find TCU #1 (656) holding opponents (3) to 7 points per game, while blanking SMU 56-0. Don’t get too excited about the SMU game as the ‘Stangs have scored just 12 points in four games. On defense, OU is rated #28 (1,399) containing the opposition (4) to just 16.3 points a game. We note, a key advantage for the Sooners is their OL which averages 325.8 pounds vs. coach Patterson’s DL (4-2-5) that weighs in around 270 pounds on average.

Technically speaking, the Sooners have covered their last 7-of-8 overall. In the Big-12 they have won 4 straight ATS, while going 6-0 ATS vs. >.500 units. Finally, OU has cashed 5 straight covers on the road. TCU is 1-5 ATS in October, 3-11 ATS after allowing 170 or more passing yards in their last game. We have to repeat that Oklahoma has Texas next, but I don’t think OU will be depressed since their shooting for #1.

Bill Biles

Oklahoma vs. TCU
Play: Oklahoma -4

Oklahoma is proving so far that is it ready to make that step into being a legit Championship team. They are very balanced as they are in the top 10 in points for and top 20 in points against. If they want to make the playoffs they have to win this game. This will be a test for them, but they will prevail to go to 5-0.

Bryan Power

Miami vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: Georgia Tech

There's been a change in favorite here, and I'm not sure I understand why? It probably has something to do w/ the fact that Georgia Tech is 0-5 both SU and ATS its last five meetings vs. Miami, but the Yellow Jackets come into this year's matchup as the better team and w/ the homefield advantage. Clearly, others are putting more stock in the 'Canes' 22-10 win over Duke than I am.

Two years ago, as 13-point dog, Miami trailed Georgia Tech 36-19 here in Atlanta before rallying for an overtime win. "The U" has not made significant strides since then, so the wild swing in the line is not justified in my opinion. In fact, I would argue that Miami is as overrated as any program in the country. The whole "The U is back" narrative is played out almost every year as Florida State has clearly surpassed them in terms of recruiting and being the "glamour" program in the state. The team has lost both of its road games so far, at Louisville and Nebraska, two programs fairly comparable in overall skill level to Georgia Tech. Thus, I don't understand why bettors are now willing to lay points with the Hurricanes.

Georgia Tech is unbeaten at 4-0 and off a bye week, which is another advantage for them. In their last game, they beat Virginia Tech 27-24 as eight-point underdogs. Look for them to have tremendous success running the ball here against a Miami defense that was gashed for 343 yards over land by Nebraska two weeks ago. Thanks to Paul Johnson's triple option offense, the Yellow Jackets come in averaging almost 300 YPG on the ground. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

MICHIGAN AT RUTGERS
PLAY: RUTGERS -3

On paper, Michigan is supposed to favored at Rutgers. The Wolverines have more talent at the majority of the positions and more quality death as well. But things have gone very much awry at Ann Arbor and Michigan football is currently in full train wreck mode.

It just seems to get a little worse every day for the Wolverines. Their on field performance has been awful, and as can happen when a team falls so spectacularly short of expectations, the off field stuff is now piling up as well. Head coach Brady Hoke is getting completely overwhelmed right now. Last night there was a well attended protest in front of the school president’s house which was aimed at athletic director Dave Brandon.

Perhaps getting away from campus and just focusing on a football game at Rutgers will be a temporary antidote for the Wolverines. But I wouldn’t bet on it. This is a team that is on a serious negative roll and all these distractions can hardly be construed as anything positive. I’ve seen these things galvanize a team on occasion, where they generate an “us against the world” mentality and play really well. But those are the exceptions, and definitely not the rule.

As for Rutgers, there’s plenty of excitement being generated this season. The fan base is pumped about the move to the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights let one get away in the conference home opener against Penn State. But Rutgers has rebounded with a pair of wins, and the team looks to be in very good shape for this weekend’s tilt with Michigan.

The power ratings I utilize have undergone an amazing transformation since pre-season as far as Michigan and Rutgers are concerned. Prior to the season, I had Michigan 9 points better than Rutgers on a neutral field. I now have Rutgers five points higher than Michigan, and that’s without the home field being added to the equation. Suffice to say there’s no team in the entire FBS I’ve downgraded more than the Wolverines, and I have to think that assessment is entirely justifiable at this juncture.

In other words, even though the oddsmakers have clearly made adjustments as far as Michigan goes, I don’t believe they’ve gone far enough. Rutgers -3 looks like a bargain to me, and I’ll tab the Scarlet Knights to pile on to the Michigan miseries with the win and cover on Saturday night.

Jesse Schule

Louisiana State vs. Auburn
Pick: Louisiana State

Two weeks after being shocked by Mississippi State in a 34-29 loss, the Tigers head out on the road to face last year's SEC champions Auburn. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris this week, and he's been impressive in limited action so far. Harris has completed 73% of his passes and thrown six TDs and just one pick. "Harris has some ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive," Miles said. "He is really fast and can really throw the ball. He can extend a play so really good things can happen."

LSU defeated Auburn by a score 35-21 at Baton Rouge last year, and it's won six of the last seven meetings outright. The lone loss came by a score of 24-17 at Auburn in 2010, and the bookmakers are giving LSU more than a TD to work with here on the road this week.

Auburn's offense has sputtered the last two weeks, sneaking away with a victory in a close game at Kansas State, and failing to cover at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last Saturday. It took a whole lot of luck for Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game last year. Along the way there were home wins over Washington State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less.

There is every reason to expect this to be a close game, and I still think that Auburn is grossly overrated after getting more than it's fair share of luck in 2013.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Tony Stoffo

South Carolina vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky +5

After a big emotional late second home loss against Missouri I can see the Gamecocks coming with less then an inspired effort here, and the early sharp money sure agrees as they hit the opening number taking the points with the Wildcats forcing an immediate adjustment downward. Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Doug Upstone

Georgia Southern vs. New Mexico State
Play: Georgia Southern -17½

Play On teams like Georgia Southern after gaining 6.25 or more yards a play in three consecutive games, returning 8 or offensive starters and the quarterback, against opponent returning five or less defensive starters. What this system understands is not only are their many offensive players back, but they really move the pigskin. New Mexico State is is a bad team to start with and toss in them having to face the Georgia Southern ground attack, good night nurse. In the past five years this CFB system is a sweet 27-5, 84.4!

Ross Benjamin

Kansas vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -26

The Kansas football program is currently in dire straits. They've gone 11-47 in their last 58-games overall, and 0-26 in their last 26 road games. The Jayhawks have also gone a pathetic 2-40 in their last 42 conference games, and have lost 23 in a row on the road versus conference opponents. As a matter of fact, their last conference road win came at Iowa St. on 10/4/2008. The head coach for the Jayhawks at that time was Mark Mangino. Ironically, Mangino is the current offensive coordinator at Iowa St. Following their loss to Texas last Saturday, head coach Charlie Weiss was fired. Weiss went a miserable 6-22 as the head coach at Kansas.

Although West Virginia has gone just 2-2 to start the season, they're performance level has been encouraging, and bordering on impressive. Their two losses came at the hands of a pair of opponents that could possibly be playing in the season ending 4-team playoff that will determine the national champion of college football. The Mountaineers accounted themselves quite well in both a 33-23 loss to Alabama, and 45-33 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma. They will also be out to avenge a humiliating 31-19 loss at Kansas last season, which was just 1 of the 2 conference wins by the Jayhawks since October of 2009. The Mountaineers come into this game following a bye week.

Any home favorite of 21.5 to 30.0 playing with rest, coming off a game versus a conference opponent, and they've won 18 or less of their last 22-games, has gone 33-4 ATS (89.2%) since 2005. Play on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the big number.

Harry Bondi

UTEP (+13) over Louisiana Tech

Despite running into a buzz saw and getting routed by Kansas State last week, UTEP remains one of the most improved teams in the nation, according to the Harry Bondi power ratings. The Miners easily bounce back here as they play with monster revenge against a Louisiana Tech defense that is allowing 32.8 points per game and got beat up physically last week in a loss to Auburn. Take the generous points.

Andre Ramirez

Mississippi State ML

Today we are laying the money on Mississippi St Moneyline for today’s winner. The Mississippi St Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS, and have been Red Hot. After the team ended a 14-game series losing streak against LSU with a 34-29 road victory two weeks ago. The Bulldogs beat the Tigers in that game as seven-point road underdogs to improve to 8-1 against the spread in their last nine overall.

This game will come down to quarterback play, and the Bulldogs have the more experienced signal caller in junior Dak Prescott, who played in last year’s game. Prescott has been the key to Mississippi State’s season so far, especially at LSU, where he threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 105 yards and another score.

According to my algorithms I have Mississippi St. winning 27-14, 28-16, and 24-21. The numbers are good for your free winner. Lay the money on Mississippi St ML, and get paid.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package