DAVE COKIN
WAKE FOREST AT FLORIDA STATE
PLAY: FLORIDA STATE -38
When one team is favored by in excess of five touchdowns, it’s safe to say the mindset is the biggest factor in determining the wagering approach. It looks to me like that mental process is very much in play here.
Florida State is unbeaten, but the Seminoles have not resembled last year’s powerhouse along the way. There have been of the field distractions, some injury issues, and most importantly, what appears to be a pretty substantial hangover after winning the FBS title last season.
I think this is where the ‘Noles get it together and rip an inferior opponent to shreds. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is talking about “still not playing as well as we can, but the rhythm is coming.” The buzz is about the team playing a full 60 minutes, which they simply have not done in any game to date.
There’s also the fact that Florida State will take the field no longer ranked as the #1 team in the nation. The ‘Noles fell to #2 in the coach’s poll this week. That’s in spite of getting a win against North Carolina State, and getting jumped by an Alabama team that didn’t even play football last weekend. Don’t underestimate how important this is to the Florida State players. They’re not happy about what they deem as an insult to their pride, and that’s a big plus when considering laying this kind of lumber.
So we have a potentially angry monster taking on a very weak opponent that really doesn’t have any chance to compete here. Wake Forest is just about hopeless on offense. They have no running game, a freshman QB who is very pick-prone at this juncture and a staggering amount of inexperience everywhere. 70% of the Demon Deacons roster is comprised of freshmen and sophomores. They’re way over their collective heads here.
It’s always possible FSU just mails in a ho-hum win here. But I’m betting the slap in the face in the coach’s poll has the desired impact and that this is where the real Seminoles show up. There’s no big issue with a look ahead as it’s just Syracuse on deck and it sure seems like the attitude is in place for the first ‘Noles bloodletting of the season. If that’s the case, there’s not much Wake Forest is going to be able to do about it. Yep, -38 is a bunch. But I’m laying it here with Florida State.
Jeff Clement
Utah vs. UCLA
Play:Utah +13.5
The Bruins are coming off a huge win over Arizona State last week as Brett Hundley's elbow injury doesn't seem to bother him. Utah can throw the ball with QB Trevor Wilson who has 783 yards with 7 TD's and no INT's. His favorite target Dres Anderson has 3 touchdowns this year and tailback Devontae Booker will need to have a good game in order for a Utah victory. UCLA is averaging 38.0 points per game while the Utes defense only allows 19.8 point per game. UCLA might be looking ahead to next week's big game with #4 ranked Oregon so I expect a close ball game Saturday night. Prediction: UCLA 29 UTAH 21.
Tony George
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois -24½
Real simple here, Kent State is totally out manned here. They are one of the worst offensive teams in Division I football. 124th on offense and to add salt to the wound they are 111th on defense, mainly because they are on the field the entire game and get gassed. West rested NIU off a bye week and 2 weeks to think about the beat down at Arkansas, who is a good SEC team. No Illinois loaded on offense, killer running game, good QB, great WR and they have OWNED the Flashes, averaging 40 ppg the last 3 times and covering all 3. BLOWOUT. If this game did not come after a bye week I might hesitate at the big number, not here, plus a home game. A little rainy for this one (extended forecast) so it favors the passing game and No Illinois has that. Rarely do I lay 20+ points but with a total mis-match and a team wanting to get back on track, consider Kent State the sacrificial lamb on Saturday afternoon.
River City Sharps
Colorado St -18
Really like the situation we have on Saturday as the Tulsa Golden Hurricane hit the road to challenge the improving Colorado State Rams. Tulsa enters this game at 1-3 on the season and off a heartbreaking OT loss to Texas State. Their season has also featured a 29-point drubbing at Florida Atlantic and now have to travel to Colorado State and the altitude in Fort Collins. The Rams traveled to Boston last week and got a nice 24-21 win at Boston College. The story for Tulsa has been their complete inability to stop anyone, surrendering 42.5 ppg and over 505 ypg, while only getting 25 ppg from their offense. The Rams are averaging 49 ppg at home and have one of the nation’s more prolific offenses. QB Garrett Grayson has been terrific for Colorado State with 10 TD’s to just 4 INT’s, while Tulsa QB Dane Evans has been really prone to the turnover. This number opened up at -14 and has been bet up to the Rams -18…even with that said, they still fall well within our “go range” as we have the Rams in a big way in this spot. Also consider that this is a revenge spot for Colorado State, who lost 30-27 to Tulsa last year after giving up the final 13 points of the game. Tulsa is 0-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons while Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in that same time frame. The Rams are also 3-1 ATS against Tulsa in their last four contests. The Rams have really improved on both sides of the ball and this is a really bad spot for Tulsa on Saturday. Colorado State absolutely rolls the Golden Hurricane.
Nelly
Middle Tennessee State - over Southern Miss
Conference USA could be wide open and Middle Tennessee State could emerge as a serious player with a huge test at Marshall next week. Southern Miss has two wins this season but they came narrowly and the Eagles handed Rice its first win last week in a lopsided home loss. The Blue Raiders won by 21 in Hattiesburg last season and this is a team with great balance on offense. Middle Tennessee State is 2-0 at home and losses to Memphis and Minnesota came in competitive games against great defensive teams, something Southern Miss certainly is not. The Golden Eagles have allowed 468 yards per game on 6.4 yards per play this season while getting soundly out-gained in three straight games. Southern miss has been out-rushed by at least 88 yards in every game this season, including the narrow FCS win over Alcorn State. The Southern Miss offense is also completing just 54 percent of its passes compared with nearly 70 percent from the efficient Blue Raiders offense. Middle Tennessee State has covered in six straight home games and this is an undervalued team.
Robert Ferringo
Mississippi State -2.5
The public will jump all over A&M because they are an underdog. But it is always an indicator if a Top 10 team is posted as an underdog. Mississippi State’s confidence is sky-high right now after a true road win, at night, at LSU two weeks ago. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and they will be lying in wait for one of the biggest wins in program history. This team has gone 8-1 ATS in its last nine games, and this is a veteran Bulldogs defense that has seen everything that A&M’s offense has to offer. The core of this Bulldogs team is the same as the one that lost by just 10 points (as 19.5-point underdogs) last November. State actually outgained A&M by nearly 20 yards in that game, but they couldn’t slow down Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans. The Aggies still have a great system and some nice talent. But games like this are where A&M’s inexperience will come back to bite them a bit. The Aggies were really lucky to escape with a win against Arkansas last week (they were down 28-14 in the fourth quarter), and I think they are primed for a letdown. I think this a great spot for the home team. I think the Bulldogs are all-around the better team here, and I think they are going to prove it. Sumlin teams don’t really get blown out. But this will be a game that Miss State controls and they win by 13.
Allen Eastman
Marshall -17.5
Marshall is coming off a bye week. I think they are going to pick up right where they left off. They have scored over 40 points in each of their four games this year and have covered the spread in three straight. They won their first two road games by 15 and by 31 points. I think they will put up even more this week with two weeks to prepare. Marshall is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and 13-5 ATS going back to the start of last season. That includes their bowl win over Maryland and a 3-1 ATS start this season. Old Dominion is one of the younger FBS programs in the country. They are 0-3 ATS at home this year, and they just lost to Middle Tennessee last week. They have one of the weaker defenses in the country, and they will not be able to slow down this Marshall attack. The Thundering Herd has one of the best quarterbacks in the country with Rakeem Cato. He will tear this Monarchs team up, and Marshall has their focus on going undefeated and getting inside the Top 25 or even the Top 10. They will win this one going away, so lay the points and take the Herd.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan State -7.5
The Michigan State Spartans football program still isn’t getting the respect it deserves. Last year they were the first team in Big Ten history to win every one of their conference games by double-digits. They look to have picked up right where they left off last year by dominating all three teams in their wins this year and hanging tough at one of the toughest venues in CFB, Oregon, in their only loss of the season. The Spartans are known for a nationally-ranked, top-notch defense, but it’s the play from their quarterback Connor Cook that has turned this team into an elite program. Nebraska comes in a perfect 5-0 to start their season, but I’m still not a big believer in Big Red. The Cornhuskers have faced an easy schedule so far. They were expected to be a bit down overall coming into the year and I don’t feel they’ve shown enough here in their first five games that they have been favored in to change that opinion of them. They lost quite a bit from last year’s team that was just a 5-3 Big Ten squad, tying for Bo Pelini’s worst record overall for conference play.
MMA OddsBreaker
UFC Fight Night 53
Pick: Parlay Chavez/Tukhugov (Fight Night 53) OVER 2.5 rounds (-175) with Pedro Munhoz to win (Fight Night 54) (-381) at (-102)
Ernest Chavez is too tough for his own good. As a lightweight, he went the distance with an absolute killer in his UFC debut and then lasted over 2.5 rounds against a very dangerous Brazilian lightweight Elias Silverio in Brazil. Now that he's dropping down to his more natural featherweight division, he should have no problem going the distance against Russian striker Zubaira Tukhugov, who's measured approach should help him considerably.
We're going to parlay the OVER 2.5 rounds in the Chavez/Tukhugov fight with Pedro Munhoz. Munhoz is competing in the opening bout of UFC Fight Night 54 and he'll be severely overmatching his opponent, Jerrod Sanders. Sanders is a solid wrestler, but that's about it. Munhoz will have a huge edge in the stand-up portion and will likely be in prime position to submit Sanders if and when Sanders shoots in for a takedown. Wherever this fight goes, it'll be Munhoz's world. It sholud be only a matter of time until he either scores a knockout or lands a submission.
Sam Martin
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia
Prediction: Virginia
While Pitt and Virginia enter this week with identical 3-2 records, that's about the only thing these two programs have in common. Much more impressed with the Cavaliers entire body of work, which not only includes a far tougher schedule to this point, but also a perfect 5-0 ATS mark on the season. We'll back Virginia to stay perfect at the betting window and beat the Panthers by double-digits on Saturday.
Pittsburgh's 3-2 record might not look awful, but they were listed as the favorite in all five of those games (so, two outright losses) and come into this game after back-to-back upset home losses against Iowa (as a 6.5-point favorite) and Akron. That last loss was flat out embarrassing - losing 21-10 as a huge 20.5-point home favorite. Virginia is very good against the rush, which seems to be the way to beat the Panthers as they have rushed for 300+ yards in their three wins and under 200 yards in both losses. After already playing UCLA, Louisville, and BYU this Panthers team is a step down in class and the Cavaliers win this one with ease!
Kyle Hunter
Boise State vs. Nevada
Play: Under 53
The Nevada Wolfpack offense isn't working nearly as well as expected. Coach Brian Polian is a big downgrade from the previous Nevada offensive mastermind Chris Ault. Cody Fajardo isn't able to get anything going in the passing game. Boise State's defense is excellent against the run, so I expect Nevada to find moving the football to be difficult in this one. Nevada's defense has been much better than expected so far this year. They did a great job against Washington State's high powered attack earlier this year. Boise State's offense has fallen off in a big way as well as Grant Hedrick has been very mistake prone. The under is 5-0 in Nevada's last 5 home games. The under is 6-0 in Nevada's last 6 conference games. The under is also 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. Take the under.
Jimmy Boyd
Marshall -17½
I got no problem laying this number on Marshall. This Thundering Herd team is better than than a lot of the power 5 conference teams and have opened up 2014 on a mission. They went on the road in their last game and beat a very good Akron team 48-17, who came back the next week and upset Pittsburgh on the road. Marshall has outgained their first four opponents by a combined 1,074 yards. Old Dominion was just outgained in a 28-41 home loss to Middle Tennessee by 136 yards.
With Marshall coming off their first bye week of the season, I look for this team to be clicking on all cylinders and take advantage of a far inferior opponent. Defensively the Monarchs will not be able to stop the Thundering Herd from scoring at will and offensively I look for them to struggle to put up points. Old Dominion is only averaging 4.7 yards/rush against teams who on average are giving up 5.0 ypc. They are also averaging just 7.6 yards/completion against defenses that have allowed an average of 7.7. Marshall is giving up just 3.1 yards/carry and 5.5 yards/completion.
This is also a difficult spot for Old Dominion, who are coming off the emotional rush of getting the opportunity to play a nationally televised game in primetime last Friday. Losing like they did (trailed 24-0) will make it that much harder to bounce back.
Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring more than 40 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 200 yards, while Old Dominion is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing more than 40 points.
Road favorites of 14.5 or more points off 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more at the half are 24-3 ATS since 1992. That's a 89% system in favor of the Thundering Herd.
Tom Stryker
Arizona State vs. USC
Play: USC -11½
In last week's 35-10 home win over Oregon State, USC's defense held Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion to just 123 yards passing (a career low). Mannion is one of the Pac-12's best behind center. Matched up against an Arizona State offense that will send backup Mike Bercovici on the field, the Men of Troy's defense will dominate once again.
In case you forgot, this is a huge revenge game for Southern Cal. Last year, the Trojans got steamrolled by the Sun Devils in the desert 62-41. That was the most points a USC defense has ever allowed. In that victory, ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly shredded the proud Southern Cal "D" for 351 yards and three touchdowns. Rest assured, backup Bercovici won't duplicate those numbers.
A quick look at the history in this series shows that USC has posted a reliable 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record in its last 10 at home against Arizona State. The Trojans have won seven straight in the Coliseum against the Sun Devils by an average of 21.0 points per game too. Equally impressive, as a double-digit Pac-12 home favorite battling with revenge, the Men of Troy have posted a solid 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS record.
The conference road has given ASU fits lately. According to my database, the Sun Devils are just 22-35 SU and ATS in their last 57 as a Pac-12 guest including a weak 8-22 SU and 10-20 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up win. Defensively, head coach Todd Graham's kids have issues. In its last two games against Colorado and UCLA, ASU surrendered a whopping 47 first downs and 1,125 yards. Matched up against a USC offense that has popped for an average of 32.8 points and 447.5 yards per game, the Sun Devils will have trouble keeping head coach Steve Sarkisian's kids out of the endzone.
In a revenge mode and sporting a defense that has given up an average of only 17.5 points and 354.3 yards per game, the Trojans will be prepared to make a statement. Watch Bercovici struggle in just his second career start.
Matt Fargo
Hawaii vs. Rice
Play: Rice -6½
Rice is coming off a big win last week at Southern Mississippi which put a halt to its three-game losing skid to open the season. The Owls lost against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, which are a combined 9-0, away from home and then dropped a tough three-point setback against a very good Old Dominion team at home. This continues an important five-game stretch against mediocre opposition as Rice needs to take care of business if it wants to have a chance at a third straight bowl game as the back end of the schedule is loaded. Hawaii is coming off a bye week following a loss at Colorado two weeks ago which was the Warriors first road game of the season. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 14 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered half of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-4 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and this lines matches what the Owls were giving to Old Dominion in their only other home game. Coming off a bye week has hurt Hawaii even more as it is 4-18 AYS in its last 22 road games following a week off. Rice meanwhile is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games coming off a double-digit road win while going 23-5 ATS in its last 28 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.
Dave Price
Utah +13½
Utah blew a 21-0 lead in last week's 28-27 loss to Washington State. Sickened by that loss, I expect to see an inspired performance from the Utes Saturday evening. They are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss of six points or less under coach Whittingham and have won these contests by an average score of 29.0 to 26.3. Utah has won or lost by seven points in each of its last four matchups with UCLA. It lost last season's battle by just seven points despite six turnovers. The 9th-ranked Bruins have been overvalued this season and are just 1-3 ATS as a result. Utah is 3-1 ATS and has been an impressive underdog the last couple decades. It's 55-32 ATS when catching points since 1992. While UCLA has been pretty good offensively, it's struggled on the defensive side of the football. That's a big reason why it didn't cover either game it was favored by double digits in. The Bruins rank 101st in the country in total defense with 450.8 ypg allowed, and they rank 122nd in pass defense with 313.8 ypg allowed. QB Travis Wilson is off to a strong start with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. I expect him to have success against UCLA's suspect backend. He'll be extremely focused too after tossing six picks in last year's battle.