Jeff Scott
4 UNIT PLAY
Nebraska/ Michigan Over 59.5
This one has the feel of a shootout. Michigan State has increased their offensive production this year and they have scored 58 ppg at home so far. They will be taking a step up in competition and while Nebraska has allowed just 19 ppg this year, they have faced just one good offense and allowed 31 points to Miami in that game. They will struggled to keep this Michigan state offense from scoring, especially since the Spartans are looking to destroy all teams on the schedule to impress the committee. Do not be surprised if they look to run it up here should they have the chance. For Nebraska, they have been an offensive machine as well this year, as they have averaged 572 ypg and 45.4 ppg. Granted they are taking on a tough MSU defense, but they did struggle some vs the only good offense they have faced (Oregon) and I see the Cornhuskers to be able to score on them here. This one should be fun and could flirt with putting up 70+ points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Mississippi State -2 -2 over Texas A&M
This is a huge opportunity for the Bulldogs and I feel they will be able to take advantage of it. The Bulldogs are a much better team than last year, they are at home and off a Bye week. They also lost by just 10 points last year on the road vs an A&M team that had Johnny football at the helm. I know that Kenny Hill has been awesome this year, but he hasn't faced a defense this tough just yet. Mississippi State can be passed on, as they have allowed 319 ypg through the air so far, but we will see what Kenny Hill will be able to do under pressure as I expect the Bulldogs to bring plenty of pressure vs him. Mississippi State is very balanced on offense, rushing for 270 ypg, while passing for 266 ypg and that makes them very tough to stop, especially since A&M really had problems slowing down the Arkansas run game last week. The Bulldogs are a very dangerous team, especially at home and will look to follow their road win over LSU with a huge home win over a top 10 team. I say they get it here.
Navy/ Air Force Under 56
This one should be a very good game, but also a low scoring one, just like in the last 5 meetings between these teams, in which an average of just 41 ppg where scored. Now going back to the last 10 meetings in this series and we see that just once in those meetings, in regulation, was there more than 56 points scored in a game. A big part of that is that both teams runs the triple option and both teams know how to defend it it. We also note that the triple will take plenty of time off the clock as well. We also have an air Force team that has played good defense this year as they have allowed just 21.3 ppg and they have allowed just 86.5 ypg on the ground. They can be passed on but navy only throws for 90 ypg. The Navy defense is not as strong, but they usually have good success vs the Air Force offense in the past. Both teams now each other very well and both teams are pretty conservative and that should once again keep the scoring in the 40s at best here.
BEST OF THE REST
North Carolina/ Virginia Tech Under 64.5
Very hard to see this game being played in the mid 60s, especially since Va Tech has played just two games with more than 61 points being scored in the last 2+ years. This Hokies defense is sold and North Carolina will look to correct their defensive woes after allowing 120 points the last two weeks. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and I expect that trend to continue here.
Notre Dame/ Stanford Under 47
This Stanford defense is tops in the nation and they play a real conservative type of game on offense. The did put up some solid numbers vs the weaker teams they have faced this year, but in their two Pac-12 games (which is closer to the talent of Notre Dame) they have averaged just 15 ppg and last week were able to score just 20 points on a Washington defense that allowed 52 points to Eastern Washington earlier in the year. I know that Stanford played USC, but still this may be the best defense they have faced this year so far, as they Irish come in allowing just 11.5 ppg on the year. The Irish have averaged 35 ppg on the year so far, but they have yet to face a defense as tough as this one and I see them having trouble moving the ball with ease here. The Cardinal really seem to play more conservative in big games, as the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings at Notre Dame. Mid 30’s at best here
Alabama/ Mississippi Under 52.5
Both of these offenses have been very good this year, but these two defenses will probably end up in the top 10 in the nation by the end of the year. This Ole Miss defense is for real and they come in allowing just 8.5 ppg and 248 ypg on the year so far. The Alabama defense is not as good as in year’s past, but they are still very good and come in allowing just 14 ppg. This is a huge game for both games and I look for both coaches to be a bit conservative in this one. This should really be an old school SEC defensive battle with a score possibly in the 30s at best.
Rob Vinciletti
Hawaii vs. Rice
Play: Rice -6.5
Rice fits a solid game 5 system that pertains to bowl teams off their first win which was in conference play these teams are Perfect to the spread over the last 25 years. Rice has covered all 6 games in the series vs Hawaii. The Rainbow warriors don't have much fight on the main land. In fact they are 1-7 ats in the 2nd of back to back road games, Rusty with rest at 0-4 ats and 0-17 straight up vs teams that have a win percentage of .333 or more. Hawaii is 1-5 ats vs Conference USA and 4-12 ats as a road dog of +3.5 to +7. Look for Rice to win and cover.
Scott Spreitzer
Kansas St. -14
If the 'Cats were going to suffer any type of letdown, you'd think it would have been last week against UTEP following the heart-breaking loss to Auburn. We had the Wildcats against the Tigers and cashed, but K-State could have, and maybe should have won the game if they had a FG kicker who didn't kick like I drive the golf ball off the tee at TPC Summerlin - Las Vegas. This week, Kansas State should be focused with a bye week coming up next. Texas Tech is the opponent and the Red Raiders have been giving up a ton of points. They've allowed 35 points to Central Arkansas, 26 to UTEP, 49 to Arkansas, and 45 to Oklahoma State. We actually took the points against the Cowboys and cashed, but needed a late TD to do so. The Raiders may find the offensive going tough, facing K-State's 18th ranked defense, effective against the pass or run. Kansas State enters on a 16-4 ATS run in October action, including a 6-0 run the last two seasons. They're also on a 31-12 ATS conference run. The Wildcats won the last two meetings by scores of 49-26 and 55-24. I expect another wide-margin win in this one. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Saturday.
Teddy Covers
La.-Lafayette -15.5
Louisiana- Lafayette was the best team in the Sun Belt last year and they were expected to be the best team in the Sun Belt again this year. But the Rajun Cajuns went through a very rough early season stretch; blasted at home by Louisiana Tech and on the road in step-up-in-class games against Ole Miss and Boise.
Louisiana got a much needed bye week to nurse their wounded psyche and their wounded players. Their most dynamic offensive weapon, WR Jamal Robinson, and his 20 yards per catch average, are expected back in the lineup. And the quotes coming out of Lafayette are uniformly positive as they open Sun Belt play.
Head coach Mark Hudspeth: “I think they know now it's a new season.”
Linebacker Tyren Alexander: “We go into conference 0-0. That's the main focus, is to win our conference. That's what we're worried about now. What happened in the past is the past."
Receiver Al Riles: “"We know how important conference is, and we still know we have a lot of time to turn the season around. We're not worrying about anything behind us, and we're not worrying about anything farther. We're just worried about the next game."
Georgia State got outscored by 45 points in the second half alone of their last game, and they failed to cover in two early matchups against lesser foes. Their limited running back corps is decimated with injuries as well. I don’t expect the Panthers first ever Sun Belt road game to end well for the visitor.
Steve Merril
California vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State -3
California is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot. The Golden Bears gave up 36 points in the fourth quarter two weeks ago and lost 49-45 in Arizona. Last week, California survived Colorado 59-56 in overtime. So in back-to-back weeks, California has played in high-scoring shootouts that were decided late. It’s hard to imagine them having much left in the tank, especially since they are now back on the road.
Washington State is starting to play better, and that was evident in their 28-27 win at Utah last week as a +13 point road underdog. Washington State enters this week on a perfect 3-0 ATS run and they won easily 44-22 last year at California as a -2 point road favorite.
Steve Janus
Auburn Tigers -7.5
Auburn's 13-game ATS winning streak was put to rest in their 20-14 win at Kansas State and they once again failed to cover in their last contest, beating Louisiana Tech 45-17 as a 33-point favorite. It didn't take long for the public to jump off this team, as nearly 65% of the bets are coming in on LSU.
I'm not exactly sure why. The Tigers have struggled in their two games against top level opponents in Wisconsin and Mississippi State. They were fortunate to beat the Badgers (Melvin Gordon got injured) and lost at home to the Bulldogs 29-34 in a game that was a lot more lopsided than the final score would indicate. In order to stop Auburn you have to be able to stop the run and LSU has given up 268 yards to Wisconsin and 302 rushing yards to Mississippi State. The Badgers have little to know passing threat, so that's a good sign that even though they know it's coming they won't be able to stop it.
This is also a great spot for Auburn, as they come in off a bye and are going to come out 100% focused and motivated after their ugly loss to the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year. Auburn knows they need to make a statement and I expect them to do just that.
Key Trends - LSU is 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/rush, and are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 after playing 2 straight at home. Auburn is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 14 or less in each of their last two games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Tony Karpinski
Ohio vs. Central Michigan
Play: Ohio +4
Ohio has a troublesome running game with A.J. Ouellette, but even though they lack a strong scoring game, only putting up more than 17 pts this season twice, and they have had problems with moving the ball through the air. Central Michigan is no offensive powerhouse either to be too concerned about. Central Michigan lacks an offense as well, only putting up 19.8 a game. Recently only scoring 14/gm and losers of 3 straight, this wont be changed here. Let's make it 4 in a row. Central Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Joe Gavazzi
Stanford vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +2½
There is an old college basketball adage that could be appropriate for today’s contest. It refers to competitively priced games and is simply stated as “put your money on the player.” This refers to the most dominant performer on the team who is most likely to make the meaningful game deciding play. In this game, that could well be ND QB Golson. You will remember Golson as the starting signal caller of the Irish, who led Notre Dame to a 12-0 SU regular season in 2012. After a year sabbatical, Golson is again holding the reins of the Irish offense. Consider it to be no coincidence that the Irish are off to a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS start. We figure to know more after tonight’s contest, as Stanford is clearly not in the same league as Rice, this year’s Michigan team, Purdue or Syracuse. The Cardinal again has a staunch defense, allowing just 7 PPG, 198 YPG, and 3.3 YP play. But until otherwise noted, we will “put our money on the player.”
Andre Ramirez
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -140
Today we are laying the money on Mississippi Moneyline for today’s winner. The Mississippi Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS, and have been Red Hot. After the team ended a 14-game series losing streak against LSU with a 34-29 road victory two weeks ago. The Bulldogs beat the Tigers in that game as seven-point road underdogs to improve to 8-1 against the spread in their last nine overall.
This game will come down to quarterback play, and the Bulldogs have the more experienced signal caller in junior Dak Prescott, who played in last year’s game. Prescott has been the key to Mississippi State’s season so far, especially at LSU, where he threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 105 yards and another score.
According to my algorithms I have Mississippi St. winning 27-14, 28-16, and 24-21. The numbers are good for your free winner. Lay the money on Mississippi St ML, and get paid.
Steve Williams
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -37½
A Winner is a Winner. That's why we have no problem laying the points in this matchup. To begin, Florida State dropped to # 2 in some of the polls despite winning last week. That won't make the defending champs happy. Last 2 games in this series Seminoles have won by a total score of 111-3. FSU 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series.
Demon Deacons talking about how tough they have it playing on road against FSU in local media reports. True Freshman QB John Wolford will have his hands full leading the Wake offense against a Seminole defense that gave up 41 last week. Seminole defense looking to show that was a fluke. They are better than that. Add a young offensive line for Wake and we're looking at a shutout by the Seminole defense.
This one will get ugly early and if it doesn't it will be ugly by the final horn. Florida State ends up with the blowout and near shutout. Florida State 66-10. Lay the points with the home standing Seminoles.
Hollywood Sports
Boise St. at Nevada
Play: Boise St.
Boise State (3-2) looks to rebound from their 28-14 loss at Air Force last Saturday in a game where their quarterbacks threw five interceptions. Look for a better effort here as they Broncos are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 20 or fewer points in their last game. Despite their 3-2 record, the Broncos are outgaining their opponents by +89.4 YPG. Nevada (3-1) comes off a 21-10 win at San Jose State last week -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Wolf pack may be 3-1 -- but they are being outgained by -51.0 YPG due to a porous defense that ranks 92nd in the nation by allowing 440.0 total YPG. Additionally, Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in the month of October. Take Boise State minus the points in this one.
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma -3.5
Oklahoma escaped with just a three point win at home against TCU last year, but I think this years Sooners team will get the job done here. The Horned Frogs have been a good home underdog in the past and they are off to a 3-0 start this season, but the level of competition that TCU has faced has been very low. The Sooners have already have played a much tougher schedule and have looked very strong on the road so far this season. The Horned Frogs are running a new up-tempo offense this season, but Oklahoma’s swarming front seven and ball-hawking secondary will be the best defense that TCU has faced this season. The Horned Frogs have never scored more than 20 points against Oklahoma and I don't think that will change in this meeting. OU has Texas on deck, but that game is two weeks out and TCU should have their full attention in this game. Lay the points.
Baylor -14.5
The Longhorns have the defense to hang around in this game for a while, but I expect the Bears to break this one open and cover this spread. Baylor also has a very under rated defense that should be able to take the run away from the Longhorns. This will force Texas quarterback Tyrone Swoopes to make throws to move the ball and that will lead to mistakes. Baylor has one of the best quarterback in the nation in Bryce Petty and with all of the offensive weapons that Baylor throws at their opponents it will just be a matter of time before they wear down this Longhorns defense. Baylor is averaging 641 yards and almost 57 points per game despite three of their best offensive players missing games with injuries. Texas picked up a win last week at Kansas, but the Horns only produced 111 yards rushing and 30 of those yards came on a trick play. That won't cut it this week, lay the points.
Auburn -7.5
This is a revenge game for Auburn as they only lost one regular season game last year and it was to LSU. LSU comes into this game ranked #15 in the nation, but I don't believe that they are really the fifteenth best team in the nation. LSU has played a pretty weak schedule with the exception of Wisconsin and Mississippi State. The Badgers dominated LSU for a half on a neutral field and the Bulldogs from Mississippi State dominated in Baton Rouge. Auburn is better than both of those teams and they get LSU on their turf. Freshmen quarterback Brandon Harris looked unstoppable last week against New Mexico State, but I expect him to look like the freshmen that he is in this match up. Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall was held to just 46 rushing yards in last years meeting, but I look for that to change this time around. LSU head coach Les Miles is just 4-8-1 against the spread as an underdog against an undefeated SEC opponent. Lay the points.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers/Cardinals Over 6.5
What a thrilling game we just saw a few hours ago. The temperatures out in Los Angeles is extremely hot and hitters love this type of weather as the balls just carry out. This postseason has been a slugfest and I just don’t see this game staying under the total the way both teams are hitting the ball. It seems like low scoring baseball games in the playoffs are a thing of the past when it comes to this postseason.
Harry Bondi
PURDUE (+9.5) over Illinois
Yes, Illinois QB Wes Lunt returns this week from an injury that kept him out of last week's loss to Nebraska, but this is a pick against the horrid Illini defense. We'll gladly take the generous points against an Illinois defense that has allowed more than 200 yards rushing per game this season. Purdue, meanwhile, has rushed for at least 180 yards in four out of five games so expect the Boilermakers to play ball control, move the chains and keep this one close. Offensively, Illinois has looked good at times, but has been very careless with the ball (11 turnovers in five games) and needed late comebacks to beat the likes of Youngstown State and Western Kentucky. Illinois is also just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games in Big 10 play.
Brad Wilton
Georgia Tech enters today's showdown with Miami-Florida at 4-0 straight up, while Miami-Florida is just 3-2 on the season, but my money is on the Hurricanes to handle the Yellow Jackets one more time.
Miami manhandled the Duke Blue Devils last week at home, and they will be able to do the same to the smaller and less quick Jackets this weekend in front of their home crowd.
The Hurricanes have won and covered each of the last 5 series meetings, winning last season's meetings 45-30 as the -5 point home chalk.
G-Tech is 0-2 against the spread at home this year, and are just 1-3 against the spread as the home dog since the 2010 season.
Look for Miami to make it 6 straight wins and covers over Georgia Tech in this meeting.
4* MIAMI-FLORIDA
After getting out of the gate at 3-0 straight up and against the spread, Northern Illinois ran into a buzzsaw at Arkansas on September 20th, losing to the Hogs 52-14.
With a week off to get their minds right, look for Rod Carey's team to dominate a bad Kent State team they way they traditionally do.
The Golden Flashes haven't been so "golden" lately, failing 7 of their last 9 dating back to last year, and they rank near the very bottom statistically speaking both defensively and in scoring, which is a bad mix to bring into a game against any opponent.
Northern Illinois has won and covered the last 4 series meetings in DeKalb, and they are on a 6-0-1 overall spread run in this series, with a 40 points per game scoring average in the last 3 series victories.
No choice here but to lay it with the Huskies.
3* NORTHERN ILLINOIS