Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Michigan State Spartans.
We've always known Mark Dantonio teams to have good defenses and running games, but it's been a while since he's had these type of receivers and a QB like Conner Cook. This is the best offense in MSU history, as they have posted 201 points over four games... and yes, I checked... that IS a Michigan State record.
These are two of the premiere offenses in college football meeting up in East Lansing tonight, but the difference is, Michigan State has played a tougher schedule and will be better equipped to handle this environment while I'm not sure how Nebraska is going to react. Their toughest game to date has been Miami... but that game was at home.
The Spartans are just a little more talented on both sides of the ball and that's going to be the difference. Take MSU to win this game, 41-31.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points at home against Vanderbilt, as UGa gets big time revenge on a Bulldogs team that blew a 27-14 lead in the 4th quarter last year at Vandy to see their 7 game series win streak snapped.
The Commodores lack the firepower to stay in this game for the long haul, as Derek Mason's team has been held to a touchdown or less in 3 of their 5 games contested this season.
UGa will hit the road for their next 4 games, and while they have had issues when stepping up in class, they have been pretty adept at beating the lesser teams they have faced - just ask Troy a 66-0 loser on this field back on September 20th.
The 'Dores are allowing nearly 35 points points per game this year, and in their last 2 visits to Athens, they have been blasted by a 91-3 combined score.
No letup today from the Dawgs.
Lay it with Georgia.
4♦ GEORGIA
DAVE COKIN
WAKE FOREST AT FLORIDA STATE
PLAY: FLORIDA STATE -38
When one team is favored by in excess of five touchdowns, it’s safe to say the mindset is the biggest factor in determining the wagering approach. It looks to me like that mental process is very much in play here.
Florida State is unbeaten, but the Seminoles have not resembled last year’s powerhouse along the way. There have been of the field distractions, some injury issues, and most importantly, what appears to be a pretty substantial hangover after winning the FBS title last season.
I think this is where the ‘Noles get it together and rip an inferior opponent to shreds. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is talking about “still not playing as well as we can, but the rhythm is coming.” The buzz is about the team playing a full 60 minutes, which they simply have not done in any game to date.
There’s also the fact that Florida State will take the field no longer ranked as the #1 team in the nation. The ‘Noles fell to #2 in the coach’s poll this week. That’s in spite of getting a win against North Carolina State, and getting jumped by an Alabama team that didn’t even play football last weekend. Don’t underestimate how important this is to the Florida State players. They’re not happy about what they deem as an insult to their pride, and that’s a big plus when considering laying this kind of lumber.
So we have a potentially angry monster taking on a very weak opponent that really doesn’t have any chance to compete here. Wake Forest is just about hopeless on offense. They have no running game, a freshman QB who is very pick-prone at this juncture and a staggering amount of inexperience everywhere. 70% of the Demon Deacons roster is comprised of freshmen and sophomores. They’re way over their collective heads here.
It’s always possible FSU just mails in a ho-hum win here. But I’m betting the slap in the face in the coach’s poll has the desired impact and that this is where the real Seminoles show up. There’s no big issue with a look ahead as it’s just Syracuse on deck and it sure seems like the attitude is in place for the first ‘Noles bloodletting of the season. If that’s the case, there’s not much Wake Forest is going to be able to do about it. Yep, -38 is a bunch. But I’m laying it here with Florida State.
ASA
Northern Illinois -24
Kent has had a tough go of it this year going 0-4 both SU & ATS. They have lost their last 2 games vs Ohio St and Virginia by a combined score of 111-13. They have lost by 55 points to the spread in their 4 games – an average of nearly 2 TD’s per game. The Flashes have also been outgained in every game by a total margin of almost 1,000 yards. Bad spot here as well as Kent is playing their 3rd consecutive road game. NIU had a bye last week and they are off a loss 2 weeks ago @ Arkansas. The Huskies are 3-1 this year with wins @ Northwestern and @ UNLV. The Huskies are averaging nearly 500 YPG on offense and playing into a Kent defense that gives up nearly 500. Northern has dominated the MAC winning 25 of their last 26 conference games. They are 13-4-1 ATS their last 18 MAC tilts. This one could get ugly.
Dr. Bob
Top 25 Games
Strong Opinion - EAST CAROLINA (-41) 54 Smu 7
This game was actually on my initial list of possible Best Bets, as my math model gives East Carolina a solid 55% chance of covering this huge number against a woeful SMU team that has been outscored by an average of 3.0 to 50.5 in their first 4 games. In fact, I'll consider East Carolina a Strong Opinion based on my math model and a 19-65-1 ATS big road dog situation that applies to SMU.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-17) 43 Iowa State 22
My math model only favors Oklahoma State by 16 points in this game but Iowa State applies to a very negative 57-127-2 ATS situation and an 88-198-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. That’s about as strong as it gets from a technical perspective and I’ll favor the Cowboys to cover despite the slightly negative line value. It also doesn’t hurt that Oklahoma State is at their best when favored from 3 ½ to 24 points (41-14 ATS under coach Mike Gundy, including 35-8 ATS if their opponent has a win percentage of .800 or less).
FLORIDA STATE (-38) 43 Wake Forest 9
My math model favors Florida State by 36 points and the Seminoles apply to a 1-19 ATS subset of an 8-32-2 ATS huge home favorite letdown situation that worked last week with Louisiana Tech as a big dog at Auburn. I’ll lean with the Demon Deacons.
TCU (+3½) 29 Oklahoma 28
TCU has only played 3 games, so it’s tough to get a true gauge on them but so far the Frogs have been consistently excellent in whipping two bad teams (48-14 over Samford and 56-0 over SMU) and beating a decent Minnesota squad 30-7. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has been better than I expected them to be, as the Sooners have been potent offensively (45 points on 496 yards at 7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and very good defensively, allowing just 16.5 points per game and 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. The Sooners’ special teams has also been very good and so far they’ve been the most well rounded team in the nation. However, I thought this was a game the Sooners could lose before the season started and I will still call for the upset. My ratings only favor Oklahoma by 2 points and TCU applies to a solid 94-41-2 ATS home momentum situation.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (58) – Baylor (-14½) 35 TEXAS 17
This will be a good matchup in one respect – the potent Baylor offense against a very good Texas defense. Baylor’s offense isn’t as good as it was last season because the Bears are a below average running team (5.1 yards per rushing play has come against teams that would allow 5.8 yprp to an average team) so it will be up to Bryce Petty and the incredible Baylor pass attack to put some points on the board. However, Texas has one of the nation’s best pass defenses, as the Longhorns have limited their opponents to just 3.6 yards per pass play. Texas is also better than average defending the run, so they should be able to slow down Baylor’s offense. The oddsmakers project around 36 points for Baylor given the current spread and total and my math model predicts 34 points for the Bears in this game. The reason I think this game will go under the total is because I don’t see Texas scoring 21 or 22 points that the odds suggest they’ll score. Texas has only averaged 21.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play despite facing a schedule of below average defensive teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. The Baylor defense is very good, as the Bears have yielded just 3.7 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects only 17.5 total points for Texas and overall the math favors Baylor by 16 ½ points with a total of just 51.7 total points. There are situations favoring both sides but the strongest situation favor Baylor, so I’ll lean with the Bears and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion.
Stanford (-2½) 26 NOTRE DAME 21
I was looking forward to betting Stanford in this game and my math model does indeed like the Cardinal here, but Notre Dame applies to an 85-34 ATS unbeaten home underdog situation and Stanford applies to a negative 9-32-2 ATS non-conference road letdown situation. Despite that negative situation I’d still rather have Stanford here, as the Cardinal have the nation’s best defense and their offense is actually a bit better than the Irish offense. Stanford’s defense has allowed an incredibly low 6.5 points and 200 yards per game at 3.4 yards per play to a schedule of teams that includes good offensive teams USC and Washington (overall their opponents would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Notre Dame has a good, but not great offense that has averaged 35 points and 6.3 yppl but the offense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average with quarterback Everett Golson in the game, averaging 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team (the average is lower with Golson in the game because backup quarterback Malik Zaire ran for 67 yards on 4 plays against Rice and Michigan and taking that out lowers the average by 0.2 yppl). I don’t expect Stanford to continue to allow just 6.6 yards per completion, which is unsustainable over the course of the season, but my model still only forecasts 304 yards at 4.3 yppl for the Irish even after adjusting for that variance.
What you might find surprising is that Stanford’s offense actually rates as better than the Notre Dame offense. The Cardinal have averaged 6.6 yards per play with starting quarterback Kevin Hogan in the game and they’ve faced teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average offense. That +0.7 yppl offensive rating is better than Notre Dame’s +0.6 yppl rating and Stanford figures to move the ball well against a mediocre Irish defense that’s just 0.3 yppl better than average with their starters in the game (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Stanford is projected to gain 383 yards at 6.0 yppl and overall my math model favors the Cardinal by 7 points in this game. It’s too bad the situation is so strongly in favor of Notre Dame but I’ll still lean with Stanford.
GEORGIA (-33½) 42 Vanderbilt 10
Vanderbilt is certainly struggling offensively, regardless of the quarterback (today’s starter Wade Freebeck is a bit worse than the others because of his penchant for interceptions), but the Commodores have a solid defense (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) to give them a good chance to keep this within a big number. The Commodores have been much better in recent weeks and have stayed within the number in both of their SEC games so far. My model leans with the big do here.
AUBURN (-7½) 30 Louisiana State 28
The biggest news in this game is that LSU is turning to freshman quarterback Brandon Harris, who has led the Tigers to touchdowns on all 7 of this drives this season and while that streak is very likely to end against Auburn’s defense there is no doubt that Harris is an upgrade over former starter Anthony Jennings. Jennings has completed only 50.6% of his passes but he’s posted pretty good numbers because he’s completed a couple of long passes of 80 yards and 94 yards). Harris, meanwhile has averaged 11.8 yards per pass` play despite not having a completion over 33 yards all season. Harris just hasn’t missed open receivers like Jennings has the result is a 73.3% completion percentage and the offense running like it’s supposed to. Harris also has averaged 8.7 yards on his 14 runs while Jennings has averaged a modest 4.2 yard on his 30 runs. LSU’s offense has been 0.7 yards per play better than average this season (6.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) but the Tigers will be better than that with Harris at quarterback.
Auburn was pretty mediocre defensively last season but they’ve been consistently good this season in allowing just 4.7 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. I rate the Auburn defense the same as the LSU offense with Harris at quarterback and my math projects 401 yards at 5.6 yards per play for the visiting Tigers.
Auburn’s offense struggled against a Kansas State team that is very good defending the run but the Tigers have still averaged 6.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and Auburn should have no trouble running the ball against an LSU defense that is great against the pass (3.9 yppp allowed) but is worse than average defending the run and have allowed over 7 yards per rushing play to the only two good running teams that they’ve faced (Wisconsin and Mississippi State). My math model is calling for 288 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run but Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall is not nearly as good of a passer as backup Jeremy Johnson (76% completions and 13.2 yards per pass play), which drags down Auburn’s offensive rating even though the running attack is better with Marshall. Marshall’s passing numbers are still good (7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) but they are considerably worse than the +2.7 yppp rating that team has with Johnson’s great stats included. Auburn still has a very good offense that rates at +0.9 yppl and they’ll move the ball well enough on the ground for my model to project 6.4 yards per play and 411 total yards in this game.
Based on season stats my math model would favor favored Auburn by 11 points but LSU’s offense should be better with Harris at quarterback and Auburn’s offense isn’t as good without backup Jeremy Johnson’s great passing numbers. After making those adjustments the math favors Auburn by just 5 points and LSU applies to a 110-47-2 ATS statistical indicator. It looks like LSU is the right side even though I’m a bit worried about their inability to defend a good running team. But, that is factored into the model and the math still leans with LSU.
USC (-12) 40 Arizona State 30
Arizona State got whipped 27-62 at home last week and the Sun Devils will be without star quarterback Taylor Kelly for the foreseeable future. Backup quarterback Mike Bercovici didn’t play poorly and he wasn’t playing defense, so the loss certainly couldn’t be pinned on Kelly being out. Bercovici averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against a UCLA defense that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback but the Bruins also were more focused on defending ASU’s very good ground game, which they did (just 141 yards at 4.2 yards per rushing play), so the impact of Kelly’s absence was felt more in the rushing numbers since there is no way that UCLA would have brought a safety up to help defend the run if Kelly were at quarterback. Overall, Arizona State’s offense still accumulated 627 yards and rated at 0.6 yards per play better than average against the Bruins, which is 0.5 yppl worse than their season rating.
Arizona State’s defense was horrible last week and they were 0.3 yppl worse than average before last week, so USC’s better than average attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) should prosper in this game. Overall, the math favors USC by 14 ½ points but Arizona State applies to an 87-26-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s blowout loss. I’ll lean with ASU plus the points based on the good situation.
Strong Opinion – Utah (+13) 29 UCLA 36
Utah was horrible last week in losing to Washington State, as the Utes blew a 21-0 lead and were outplayed at the line of scrimmage 357 yards at 4.5 yards per play to 497 yards at 5.9 yppl. However, that game isn’t indicative of how well Utah has played over the course of the season so far, as the Utes have been 0.8 yards per play better than average overall (0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and 1.0 yppl better than average on defense). UCLA was being criticized from their seemingly poor play in barely beating Virginia, Memphis and Texas in their first 3 games, but that are all quality opponents and the Bruins shut up the critics with a 62-27 win over Arizona State last week. There still is reason for some concern for UCLA fans, as the Bruins’ defense has been barely better than average (5.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). There is certainly nothing wrong with the UCLA offense but that unit will be challenged by a very good Utah defense that’s allowed just 4.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Overall, the math favors gives Utah a 55.5% chance to cover based on the historical performance of my model, and I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion.
Triple Threat Sports
Texas A&M (+) over Mississippi State
Better team getting points...we love being able to type that - and we have that chance here. We liked the Aggies when they opened at -2, so we certainly like them here now that they are getting points. There are two main reasons we like A&M here. First, while MSU is off a bye they are also off that big win vs LSU and they have Auburn up next. That is a tough scheduling spot, and during the time off the team has been getting a great deal of national attention that they are not used to, and that is often unsettling for a team. However, the biggest reason to like A&M here is the matchup of the Aggie passing attack against an MSU pass defense that allowed 435 passing yards to UAB and another 341 vs LSU - and now faces a better passing offense than either of those teams. We will take the points here.
South Carolina (-) over Kentucky
We are in Vegas...we respect line moves as much as the next person, but we do not always agree with them, and that is the case here. South Carolina opened as seven point chalk in this one and has been bet down to -3' in some spots! We know why the line has moved, as SC senior QB Dylan Thompson has been dealing with a neck injury and missed some practice time early in the week, but he has practiced since Wednesday and is expected to play here. Note that Kentucky gave up 295 passing yards to Florida, so we think that Thompson will be effective here. Also, while last year's meeting was a seven point affair when SC was -21, note that the Gamecocks had a big game at Arkansas up next, so there may have been some lookahead involved. More importantly, a look at that game shows that Kentucky got 301 yards of offense against SC last year...and the person responsible for 247 (82%) of that yardage is no longer with Kentucky. Finally, a look at the numbers shows that the Wildcats are 4-15 ATS of late as an underdog while South Carolina is 9-2 ATS of late in the series. We will lay the points here.
Cajun Sports
USA vs. Australia
Play: Over 149.5
The USA just played a game in the 160's with France and that total was set at 138.5. Austraila played a low scoring game with Canada (63-52) and that keeps this total as low as it is. These two played an 86-73 (159) game at the 2012 Olympics. The Opals have scored 90, 87 and 87 and they haven't played a fast paced team yet. The Aussies are without Liz Cambage and Lauren Jackson but have Penny Taylor, Belinda Snell, Jarry, Mitchell, Tolo, Hodges, etc. It's a nice mixture of inside and outside players. I thought we would see a total in the 152-154 range so nice value. Hopefully, the underdogs can make some shots and keep pace with the Americans on Saturday afternoon.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion – Memphis (+3½) 34 CINCINNATI 32
Memphis is a good defensive team that has held UCLA, Middle Tennessee and Ole’ Miss to just 5.5 yards per play, which is 0.9 yppl better than what an average team would allow to those 3 offenses. The unit is good enough to slow down a very good Cincinnati attack that has averaged 7.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Tigers’ sub-par offense is a bit better than a Bearcats’ stop unit that’s allowed 553 yards per game at 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. My math only favors Cincy by ½ a point and Memphis applies to a 40-11-1 ATS statistical matchup indicator while Cincy applies to a negative 14-42-1 ATS team coming off their first loss angle. I’ll consider Memphis a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
ILLINOIS (-8½) 33 Purdue 20
Purdue’s strength is a better than average defense but the Boilermakers are horrible offensively, averaging just 4.4 yards per play in 5 games against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. Illinois has the reputation of being a bad defensive team because they’ve given up 35 points per game, but the Illini are actually average defensively on a yards per play basis (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and the higher than average points they allow is a reflection of the number of plays they’ve allowed (85 per game). Purdue is expected to run 80 plays but the Boilermakers are projected to average only 4.0 yppl and 320 total yards of offense is likely not going to be enough to stay within 10 points of the Illini, whose offense is 0.3 yppl better than Purdue’s defense. The value lies with Illinois in this game.
INDIANA (-12) 34 North Texas 20
I’m not very impressed with North Texas and figured my math model would favor Indiana in this game. However, North Texas does have a pretty solid defense that has yielded just 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yppl against an average team, so they probably won’t get run over by a good, but not great Indiana offense that is 0.3 yppl better than average. The North Texas offense figures to struggle but the Eagles have been really good in special teams so far this season, which could help with field position. My model favors Indiana by 13 ½ points so it looks like the line on this game is where it should be.
Strong Opinion – Hawaii (+7) 29 RICE 31
Hawaii has a solid defense and the Warriors’ struggling offense (4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl against an average team) should perform well against a horrible Rice defense that’s allowed 7.5 yppl in 4 games to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. The battle between the Rice offense and Hawaii’s defense is a wash, as both units rate at the national average and overall these teams are about even. My math favors Rice by just 2 points and I’ll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion – Ohio (+4) 27 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 25
Strong Opinion – OVER (45)
Central Michigan is better offensively with RB Thomas Rawls back from a 2 game suspension and top WR Titus Davis returning with success last week after missing 3 ½ games. Davis has accumulated 139 yards in just 1 ½ games on 9 passes thrown to him (7 catches) and he’s averaged 11.2 yards for every pass thrown to him since last season, which is 3.1 yards per attempt better than the rest of this year’s receivers. With the boost in both the rushing attack and the pass attack Central Michigan goes from 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively to just 0.2 yppl worse than average and the Chippewas have an edge over an Ohio defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average. Ohio’s offense, which is 0.2 yppl worse than average has a similar advantage over a Central Michigan stop unit that is 0.4 yppl worse than average. These two teams are very equal from the line of scrimmage and my math model favors Central Michigan by 1 point in this game. The line value is in favor of Ohio and the Bobcats apply to a very good 67-14-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator. I gave this game some consideration as a possible Best Bet and I’ll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. I will also consider the Over a Strong Opinion.
Ken Thomson
Alabama -5.5
Just confirmed things with my connections in Tuscaloosa and I'm all in on Bama in Oxford on Saturday. I expected the line to go towards 7 but all the money on Thursday came steaming in on Ole Miss to knock it down to 4 1/2. There are no new injuries or suspensions so I'm sticking to my guns. I have had many lines steam against me over the years and I am usually on the riƒght side. I'll trust my gut that Bama will keep that scenario in tact. The Ole Miss offense makes occasional plays but will be hard pressed to match points with the Tide. The strength of the Rebels is their solid defense but the teams that they have faced so far ( Boise State,Vandy,UL-Lafayette & Memphis ) are teams that have struggled to score points outside of Memphis' output at UCLA. Alabama took a huge gamble hiring Kiffin who was basically fired for not letting USC open things up on offense. He never let Kessler air the ball out down the field and that cost him. Somehow he has changed his tactics and that has allowed the Tide to take advantage of the mismatches they have. Amari Cooper ( 43rec/ 655 yds/ 5 TD ) is the best receiver in College Football and Kiffin is getting him the ball often and early. Sims is a better QB than I thought he could be....( 1,007 yds/ 8 TD/2INT ). Running game is a three headed monster with ( Yeldon, Henry & Drake ), something Ole Miss is still looking for. I expect the Rebels to ride the crowd for a bit but then for Bama to take care of business. Off a BYE week, Saban is nearly impossible to beat.
Top Shelf Picks
Ole Miss +6
Ole Miss wants it bad this year. Yes Bama is still Bama, but they are not the same team as years past. This game will be a close one from start to finish, and I have Ole Miss winning 24-21.
Georgia Tech -2
Georgia Tech is off to a great start this year, while Miami is a bit below expectations. Georgia Tech is off a huge win against Virginia Tech, and they are hungry for more. Miami has played some tough games these past two weeks, and that has to wear on a team. Miami caught the Blue Devils at the perfect time, and were able to escape with the win. They won't be so lucky here. I have this one 38-24 Georgia Tech.
Andy Iskoe
La.-Monroe / Arkansas St. Under 52
This play is a formula play based upon the work I have done in studying the relationship between yards per play, points and total yards. All 3 indicators are strong towards the UNDER for UL Monroe while 2 of the indicators are strong towards the UNDER for Arkansas State with the third indicator neutral. The teams have combined thus far to play 5 UNDERs and 2 OVERs. In fact, both teams' average total points per game are below the Total for this game, and those averages include overtime scoring. My Totals generally perform well from early October through mid November and I expect to have more Totals qualify under my criterion over the next month or so.
Mark Franco
Pittsburgh at Virginia
Play: Virginia -5.5
Virginia will be one of only two teams in the nation to play five home games over the first six weeks of the season when it hosts ACC rival Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Cavaliers own a 3-1 mark at Scott Stadium thanks in part to a greedy defensive unit that has recorded 18 takeaways this year. Mike London's squad has yielded an average of 86.6 rushing yards and will be tasked with silencing the nation's second-leading rusher in James Conner. The Panthers have struggled with second-half production in their last two outings, scoring just six points on nine possessions. Akron held the key to slowing down Conner last week and prevented the sophomore from reaching the end zone for a 10th time this year. Chryst told reporters after last Saturday's loss that he considered changing quarterbacks, but no decision has been made on whether Chad Voytik will start against Virginia. The Cavaliers have generated 65 points off turnovers and rank second in the ACC with 19 sacks, which is why play under center will be so important for the Panthers. On the opposite side of the ball, Virginia hopes to have quarterback Greyson Lambert back from an ankle injury that sidelined him against Kent State last week. Matt Johns led the Cavaliers to a 45-13 win over the Golden Flashes in his first career start, throwing for two scores and running for another. Lay it with Virginia at home in a night game.
OC Dooley
Mississippi St -3
At most offshore locations it was Texas A+M who opened as a road favorite (-2’) which made sense since they have a current #6 national ranking and are facing an opponent whose overall rank (#12) is lower. So far this season the Aggies have on average gained 3.1 yards per play more than the opposition which is the TOP figure nationally for any that has played a Top-100 schedule so far. On the flipside Mississippi State has played an extremely weak schedule (#147 national rank) with the road upset versus a very young LSU contingent a couple of weeks ago being there only “true” triumph. Not only have the Bulldgos played a weak slate of games in September, the defense is ranked way down at #47 nationally versus the pass (dead last in the SEC conference). With Texas A+M leading the conference in offensive pass yards gained (1,745) one would think this is a bad matchup for today’s host especially since the Aggies have won 11 of the past 13 games on the road outright with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach. Not only has there been a radical move as opposed to the original line, there are no major injuries to report. Today marks just the second ever matchup of Top-15 ranked foes at Mississippi State and their star running back Josh Robinson is averaging a healthy 7.8 yards per carry. Texas A+M allowed 285 rush yards last week in a draining overtime duel with Arkansas on a neutral field while Mississippi State had the benefit of a bye week. Today’s posted total is in the seventies which opens the door to an eye opening long term angle from the database. When the posted total is 63 points or higher Texas A+M when playing on the ROAD
SPORTS WAGERS
Ball State +116 over ARMY
This is a great spot for the Cardinals to get back in the win column and thus becomes one of those situational plays that we often get behind. Army is 1-3 but one of those losses occurred against #15 Stanford three weeks ago. After that game, the Black Knights played two extremely close games against Wake and Yale, the latter occurring last week in a draining OT loss. They’ve also played three straight games on the road, which is physically draining. In summarizing, we have a Knights’ outfit that is both physically and mentally drained playing an undervalued Ball State team that the Knights have had trouble competing with.
BSU is also 3-1 but they have excuses, as the injury bug hit them hard in September. However, the Cardinals are coming off a bye and they get some healthy bodies back, not to mention an extra week to prepare. That should bode well for Pete Lembo, as he is quite familiar with this enemy, having defeated them by seven points or more in each of his three seasons as Head Coach. Army is a one-dimensional offense that is not difficult to prepare for. The Knights will run right, run left or run up the middle in 19 of every 20 plays while Ball State brings a balanced offense and an outstanding overall record ever since Pete Lembo took over. Until Army shows us they are capable of beating Lembo’s game plan, we’ll gladly back the Cardinals again.
TEXAS +15 over Baylor
After failing to cover on the road last week at Iowa State as a 22-point favorite, the Baylor Bears will now face a better opponent on the road yet again. This is the showdown between Baylor and the Longhorns of Texas that is shaping up into what might be a fierce battle of state powers and Big 12 rivals. Texas has endured hardships. The ‘Horns are 2-2 on the season and are still mourning their loss of quarterback David Ash. However, Charlie Strong has this historic heavyweight up and running after they defeated Kansas, 23-0 in a nonetheless impressive road victory. While Kansas may not be the most ferocious competitor Texas has faced, they still played great defensively and let’s not ignore that it was a look-ahead game for them with this one deck. Texas has picked it up big time ever since that loss to BYU.
Baylor is an excellent team with a wickedly scary offense. QB Bryce Petty is extraordinarily efficient as a quarterback. However, Texas is eighth in the country against the pass, allowing just 140 yards per game. The Bears come in 4-0 and are outscoring their opponents by 43 points per game while outgaining them by 416 yards per game. When a team puts up ridiculous offensive numbers they are often overpriced because the oddsmakers know that team is going to get heavily backed each week. Texas hasn’t been this big a home dog since 1976, a span of almost 40 years and while the Bears are capable of blowing away anyone, we’ll continue to play against high octane teams that are spotting inflated prices.
Tulsa +17½ over COLORADO STATE
Who knows to what extent a hard fought road win on the East Coast took on the 3-1 Rams. A win over Boston College may not seem like much, as it wasn’t even a conference game but for the Rams it was a big time win that they celebrated well into the night. State gets back to conference play next week when they travel to play Nevada, which is a much bigger deal than this one. CSU may show up in body only here. Colorado State is certainly the more accomplished team but sometimes bad leagues produce teams with solid records built solely by feasting on bottom-feeders. Prior to this year, none of Jim McElwain's 12 career victories had come at the expense of a winning team, and we're not optimistic about the progress of this program. This year the Rams are without the Mountain West's leading rusher in tailback Kapri Bibbs, along with four starting offensive linemen. This is not a team to spot heavy lumber with because it’s only a matter of time before they come crashing back down.
The Golden Hurricane seems poised to play well. Although Tulsa is 1-3, they are a seasoned team that has faced quality opponents like Oklahoma and are no stranger to playing good teams in hostile environments. A big problem for Tulsa is their defense that can't get off the field but we can live with that in this one, as CSU’s defense is very penetrable too. Tulsa has gotten off to very slow starts and they have been the unlucky victim of a big turnover margin that is not in their favor. However, Tulsa’s offense is a capable unit that can slow this one way down by running the ball on a Rams defense that can’t stop the marching band. As we see several times each year, the better team on paper with the better record can fail to cover big numbers. When two average defenses are on the field anything can happen, which prompts us to grab these generous points.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +190 over WASHINGTON
Clayton Kershaw blowing a 6-1 lead is further proof of how risky these big favorites can be at times. Jordan Zimmerman is no Clayton Kershaw and the Nationals are once again in danger of bowing out early in the playoffs. That can work against a teams’ psyche and now the Giants come into this one with a distinct psychological edge while all the pressure in the world is on the Nats. Zimmerman picked about the worst possible time to throw a no-hitter. He threw it in his final start of the season last Sunday and what often follows a no-hitter is a clunker. This is a unique situation in that Zimmerman’s intensity level figures to be high again but it’s worth noting that current Giants have hit .286 against him in 133 combined AB’s. Don’t get us wrong, Zimmerman is a true ace that has pitched in the shadows of Stephen Strasburg all year. He has pinpoint control and comes in with one of the best xERA/ERA splits in all of baseball. However, he’s also had some good fortune with an 84% strand rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 30%/47%. That makes him prone to giving up the long ball and in these playoff games, one jack could be the difference.
By contrast, Tim Hudson owns an elite groundball rate of 53% and he, too, rarely walks a batter. That said, Hudson is 38-years-old with a lot of miles on his right arm. That makes him a risk, as he’s certainly not the same pitcher he used to be. Hudson comes in with a 3.57 ERA, which is right in line with his 3.61 xERA. His 8.72 ERA over his last five starts was fueled by an extremely unlucky 50% strand rate and 9% hr/f rate so don’t puit tpoo much emphasis on his final month. Although Hudson is the second best starter in this matchup, his continued combination of command and groundballs still gives him plenty of value in a single game taking back a tag like the one offered here against a Nationals team that may be pressing today.