Scott Delaney
My free play for Saturday is on the UCLA Bruins over the Utah Utes.
Anyone else remember how Utah quarterback Travis Wilson performed last season? I do, vividly, and made a mental note to side against the Utes when the two got together this season. I don't care about redemption, or revenge, especially in the Pac 12.
This is the league that sees certain teams always perform the same way, and certain players always struggle against the same teas. And since Wilson threw six interceptions against the Bruins last season, ruining the Utes' upset hopes in a 34-27 UCLA victory in Salt Lake City, and the Bruins are better this season, I have to side with the Bruins.
UCLA has forced seven turnovers this season — and four of them were turned into touchdowns. That defense will be relentless tonight, as the Bruins have to be eyeing the top spot in the league after the Oregon Ducks were plucked off the other night by the Arizona Wildcats.
Lay the chalk with UCLA here.
4♦ UCLA
LT Profits
Miami-FL vs Georgia Tech
Pick: Miami-FL +120
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a perfect 4-0 straight up, but that could be in dire jeopardy when they host the Miami Hurricanes. For starters, the first three wins came against three cupcakes and they failed to cover the spread vs. Wofford and Georgia Southern. Their best win was their last at Virginia Tech, but the Hokies have not shown much either besides a win at Oho State that now seems like an anomaly. Most importantly Georgia Tech has a one dimensional rushing offense, and while the Yellow Jackets rank 11th in the country with 292.0 rushing yards per game, they are now facing defense that can slow down that attack, as Miami is allowing a mere 3.3 yards per carry while facing stiffer competition. Conversely, Georgia Tech is 73rd in total defense allowing 401.2 yards per game. Miami is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Michael Alexander
Michigan vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers -1.5
It seems that the Michigan football program has hit rock bottom as they've been outscored 87-24 in 3 of their 4 last games, are in off a crushing loss (more than a 200 yard deficit) at the hands of normal Minnesota, and are -133 points ATS in their last 16 lined games. The Knights have been good, behind QB Nova at +57½ points ATS in their last 6.
Wunderdog
Kansas @ West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia -27
West Virginia has played much better than many expected, 2-2 right now but the two losses were close ones to #2 Alabama (33-23) and #4 Oklahoma (45-33). This offense is striking for 37.5 points per game and 401.8 yards passing (third in the nation). Senior QB Clint Trickett (9 TDs, 3 INTs) has been much better than last season and they face a terrible Kansas defense that got chewed up by the one good passing team they faced, losing 41-3 to Duke. The Jayhawks are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. The Charlie Weis era in Kansas came to a premature end this past week following an embarrassing 23-0 loss to Texas and the Jayhawks are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Kansas is 6-16 ATS in October and 4-11 ATS on fieldturf. With the bad visitors in turmoil, look for a blowout win by the home team and their deadly air attack. Play West Virginia.
Prophet Plays
Baylor vs. Texas
Play: Baylor -14.5
With the Big 12 title on the line last season, these two met on a freezing, windy day in Waco where Baylor broke a 3-3 halftime tie and won 30-10 as a 16 1/2-point chalk. Texas trash-talked the Bears going into that game and prior to today's rematch. You know the cliche that "actions speak louder than words," right? Well that comes into play today as the Bears show no mercy in Austin. Third straight road game for Baylor, who demolished Buffalo 63-21 a couple of Thursdays back and Iowa State 49-28 last Saturday. Don't be fooled by the latter's score; the Bears were up 35-7 at the half against the Cyclones. Again, however, no let up today against a hated rival. The nation's No.1 offense (56.8 ppg; 641 ypg) is getting healthier each week. QB Bryce Petty got two starting receivers, Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman, back from injury last weekend and they combined for 18 catches and 268 yards against Iowa State. Today, he gets another one back, Levi Norwood (47 catches, 8 TDs last season), who suffered a broken wrist in the season opener. Texas is the best defense Baylor will play this season as the Horns have already picked up 17 sacks and picked off nine passes. The Horns are averaging just 15.7 points with Tyrone Swoopes at quarterback. They'd like the run the ball more with Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown, but the duo combines to averages just 100 yards a game playing behind an offensive line missing three starters as its center was lost to injury and both tackles among the nine players first year coach Charlie Strong has suspended for one reason or another. The Bears have won and covered the last four meetings. The Horns, meanwhile, have lost eight straight games at home versus Top-25 teams since 2010. both trends remain intact today. Take Baylor
Gabriel Dupont
I will play Colorado State as my free play today against Tulsa.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Colorado State - Garrett Grayson is one of the best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, despite all the attention surrounding Reno's Cody Fajardo and Utah State's Chuckie Keeton. who is now done for the year. And I expect Grayson to victimize Tulsa, which ranks near the bottom of FBS in nearly every defensive category.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Tulsa - Small Intangibles. Colorado State is expected to draw the largest home crowd in nearly three years today at Hughes Stadium, and it will make for a tough environment for Tulsa to play in, with the 12th Man going wild. Add in the altitude, and the Golden Hurricane could struggle terribly.
In conclusion, why COLORADO ST is my SMART PLAY in this game - Look for Grayson to be the star of this game, as the Colorado State-senior will show his maturity at crucial times. He has completed 26 of 40 passes for 284 yards and picked up 22 first downs when converting third downs.
The Rams have covered four straight at home and eight in a row against non-conference foes, dating back to last season. Colorado State has also covered four of five against losing teams, and since the Hurricane struggle against non-conference teams - they're 0-4 ATS against them - I see a blowout.
5♦ COLORADO STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on Southern Cal to get it done in Pac 12 play over ASU.
Arizona State's 62-41 trouncing of the Trojans in Tempe last season led to Lane Kiffin getting fired when the team returned home to Southern Cal. But these are not the same Sun Devils visiting the Coliseum tonight and subsequently USC (-12) gets big-time payback.
ASU is minus injured QB Taylor Kelly, who passed for 430 yards in last year's romp. And the Sun Devils are not nearly as strong defensively. A combination of inexperience and a lack of a good pass rush (just 3.5 sacks this season) will be their downfall as USC QB Cody Kessler (72% completions, 10 TDs, 0 INTs) shreds their secondary.
The Trojans rebounded from a disastrous loss at Boston College by coming off a a bye and throttling Oregon State 35-10 at home last Saturday. The Beavers were outgained 461-181 in total yardage and their lone score came on a kickoff return.
USC carries the nation's No. 11 pass D into this one and that's problematic with Kelly out. Mike Bercovici will make his second straight start instead. He passed for 488 yards and 3 TDs against UCLA last Thursday at home, but was picked off twice as his Sun Devils got destroyed by the Bruins 62-27.
Today's game won't be that ugly, but it will be a solid win and cover for USC, as ASU falls to 1-6-1 ATS as a dog during Todd Graham's tenure.
4♦ USC
Cajun Sports
Tulsa vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -14
The Rams have been a surprise to some early in the season with wins over Boston College and Colorado with both coming away from home. This team has played well and has shown improvement on both sides of the ball. Their opponent is the opposite falling on hard times and not playing well at all on either side of the ball. Tulsa was destroyed by twenty-nine points in their only road game of the season so far and that came against Florida Atlantic. Tulsa lost a tough one last week at home versus Texas State in overtime and now they must travel which makes this is a terrible situation for the Hurricane. In fact this situation has been a long term loser for Tulsa no matter who was on the field or coaching them, they are 22-37-2 ATS as a road underdog since 1996. The Rams have had their way with the Hurricane posting a mark of 5-1 ATS the last six meetings overall. Strong power ratings which show the Rams winning by an average of 18.48 points in this contest make this an easy call so we will lay the points with Colorado State on Saturday in Fort Collins. Projected Forecast: 2* Colorado State 42 Tulsa Hurricane 23
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON -3½ over B.C.
We’ve been riding this Hamilton team for weeks now with varied results and we’re going to keep the hammer down on them again because it is of our opinion that they are still the most undervalued team in the CFL. The Ti-Cats still have a losing record and even when they do win it is often by the slimmest of margins. The Ti-Cats held on for dear life last week in a 16-11 victory over Winnipeg after defeating the Eskimos the previous week by just two points. Hamilton has just two covers over its last eight games but this team is on the verge of putting it all together and running over an opponent. Hamilton is loaded with playmakers and a great defense. They are constantly outgaining the opposition by wide margins, yet shoot themselves in the foot. A couple of minor tweaks and getting off to a good start are keys because if they get a nice lead on anyone, they will be extremely difficult to play catch up against.
The Lions are laboring. They are without several key players here and may even be forced to use their #4 RB on the depth chart, as Andrew Harris is out and potentially are both his backups, Stefan Logan (leg) and Tim Brown (groin). That leaves a couple of never-seen-the-field rookies, Keola Antolin and Bradley Randle to potentially pick up the pieces. Furthermore, the Lions have been awful on the road with just a combined 14 points scored in their last two road games at Ottawa and Calgary. With the running game virtually useless here, it will force Kevin Glenn into throwing more often than not and that’s a potential disaster. We can’t get on board with a Lions’ team whose defense figures to be on the field a little too much here and while they may keep it close in the first half, the Ti-Cats are in a much better position to use a balanced attack and pull away.