Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 5

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Boston
The Rays look to bounce back for their 12-2 loss yesterday and take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-5 in John Lackey's last 6 starts as an underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115)

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Boston (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.464; Boston (Lackey) 15.964
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Oakland (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.837; Oakland (Gray) 16.438
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over

NHL

Detroit at Boston
The Bruins look to follow up their 3-1 win over Tampa Bay on Thursday and build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Boston is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145)

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.083; Montreal 10.467
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.113; Toronto 12.596
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under

Game 5-6: Detroit at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.821; Boston 13.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 7-8: Columbus at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.733; NY Islanders 11.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+110); Over

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.405; Pittsburgh 12.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-230); Under

Game 11-12: Tampa Bay at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.869; Chicago 10.771
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+180); Over

Game 13-14: Florida at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.115; St. Louis 12.535
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); Under

Game 15-16: Washington at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.394; Dallas 10.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 17-18: Anaheim at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.623; Minnesota 10.213
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); Over

Game 19-20: Edmonton at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.416; Vancouver 11.913
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Under

Game 21-22: Phoenix at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.033; San Jose 11.666
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-155); Under

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BALL STATE (+5) over VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Virginia offense is pathetic, particularly the running game, which mustered just 65 yards in a 14-3 loss to Pittsburgh last week and is averaging a paltry 3.7 yards per rush. That’s putting way too much pressure on first-year starting QB David Watford. The Cavs are a dismal 5-12 ATS at home the last 3 years while underrated Ball St. has covered 20 of its last 30 games, including a 10-5 mark on the road. Take the points!
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UTEP (-1) over Louisiana TechFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech Head Coach Skip Holtz is currently on one of the worst against the spread streaks in college football history. Dating back to his time at South Florida, Lou’s Kid has now failed to cover 17 of his last 21 games, including a 1-4 start to this season with the Bulldogs. UTEP is desperate for a victory. Miners’ downfall has been the defense, but even this unit will be able to limit the impotent La. Tech attack.

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee +10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First of all, we're fading UGA after that huge game that had to leave them emotionally spent and vulnerable. Last year, the Vols gave UGA all they could handle in Athens. I do know that the Vols are missing key pieces from that team, but IMO that will be overshadowed by the fact that Butch Jones, not Derek Dooley. I can add to the case for Tennessee by the fact that they've played Florida and Oregon, both on the road, in the last two weeks. They were obviously boatraced by the Ducks, but played respectably in Florida. Now they should come home to a 100,000+ huge crowd with some enthusiasm, rather than last years apathy. Jones has them at the very least playing disciplined football, and those are the teams we want our money on. UGA may be without the services of Gurley, but either way the strength of this years' Tennessee team may well be their defense, and if this is not a high scoring game, taking this many points at home is just too valuable to pass up. And UGA has not typically been a great road favorite anyways, having only been DD road faves four times in the last three+ years, and only two of them in Conference play, and the Vols have covered five of the last seven times the two have met. Tennessee, even having played the Ducks and Gators, is on the plus-side of the turnover ratio, while UGA is actually on the minus side (per game). As further testimony to the discipline Jones has brought, this season they're averaging a little over four penalties per game, and last season (for the whole season) they averaged nearly seven. Conversely, UGA averages over six penalties per game, so if we get one more turnover and a few less costly penalties, this game is MUCH closer than 10.5 points.

SpartanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas St. +14.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bill Snyder is perhaps the most underrated head coach in the profession today. I cannot help but chuckle to myself when I see the so called, young hot shot coach's such as Lane Kiffin go into programs that are abundantly wealthy in resources and facilities, and then fall flat on their asses. Not trying to pick on Kiffin but I think I make my point. You have Bill Snyder who has an amazing long term record, runs a clean programs and well, been to Manhattan, Kansas lately? Great, nice folks but not exactly the easiest place to recruit to. Yet year after year his teams surpass most folks expectations. Frankly this year is one of his most challenging. He seems to be struggling on deciding whether he wants his Wildcats to be a running team or passing club. That's not like Snyder but he's sharp enough to know the clock is ticking on this season. This week his team ventures down to Stillwater to take on a Cowboys team still smarting from a weak effort in Morgantown last week. There is one glaring weakness I can see on this team of Gundy's. Their secondary is pathetic, and I'm being kind here. Waters and Lockett should have a field day against that group. That's if Snyder turns them loose. We all know the Cowboys can light up the score board when everything is clicking, that pretty much goes without saying. But, what most people don't seem to grasp is just how weak this defense is. I say too many points here guys. I also like the over here. I have a feeling this could develop into an old fashioned shoot out in Stillwater and I'll take the generous points here every single time. Play Bill Snyder's Wildcats. It won't be a real popular pick with your friends but who cares, you're going to the window and not them. Best of luck and enjoy the game!

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The JROster fresh off last weeks early call NC State blowout over the C Mich crew now goes flip side as these Heels were torched by the Cross state rival East Carolina Pirates. This Saturday we will go to Lane Stadium/Worsham Field, Blacksburg, Virginia. We are high on the QB Bryn Renner to WR Ebron as these 2 will get the job done. The Hokies are 1-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and raodie in this battle = 6-1 vs the #.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas at TulaneFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulane came through for us last week as it was able to revenge its loss from last season against the Warhawks in picking up the comfortable victory. The Green Wave are now back home following a three-game roadtrip where they went 1-2 to improve to 3-2 on the season. That may not seem very impressive but considering they have won just two games in each of the last two seasons, it is a pretty good start for them. They are 1-1 at home with the lone defeat being a tough two-point loss against South Alabama. A better way to show their improvement though is to look at the yardage numbers. Tulane was outgained by 163 ypg last season but this year thus far, they are getting outgained by just over 20 ypg. Additionally, this is the best start for Tulane since 2003 when it also opened up 3-2. The big factor here however is that the Green Wave are getting points at home against a team that has no business being a road favorite. North Texas has actually been good to us this season as we went against them at Ohio and won and then backed them the following week at home against Ball St. at home. The Mean Green got thumped two weeks ago at Georgia and is coming off a bye which I feel is not a big edge in this matchup at all. They are 0-2 on the road while getting outgained by an average of 269.5 ypg and going back it does not get much better. The Mean Green are now 9-4 at home since the start of the 2010 season but they have gone 2-13 on the road over that stretch and going back further, they are 8-40 over their last 48 road games going back to 2006. To their credit, this is expected to be one of the better North Texas teams we have seen in a few years but until it can get better play on the road, they will be a fade at prices like this. Going back to the yardage margins for Tulane, the positive turnaround can be attributed to the defense. Tulane has surrendered 361.6 ypg which ranks second among C-USA squads. Last season, it gave up 482.6 ypg and one of the biggest reasons for the Green Wave improvement has been their effort against the rush. This season, Tulane is allowing just 127 ypg compared to 222.9 ypg a year ago. This is not only a big game for Tulane for conference ramifications but it is homecoming and the Green Wave will be out to grab the 500th win in program history. Tulane has a great situation on its side as we play on teams that are rushing for between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky at South CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: KentuckyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I successfully backed the Wildcats in their lone ATS victory this season, a 41-7 blowout of Miami Ohio. They outgained the Redhawks by a 675-122 margin. Needless to say, playing at South Carolina is a whole different ball game than hosting Miami Ohio. That said, we're getting a lot of points to work with here and I believe Kentucky is again providing us with solid value. Talk about a tough stretch of games. The Wildcats just faced Louisville and Florida. After Saturday's game at South Carolina, they get the privilege of facing Alabama. While the Wildcats realistically likely won't win any of those four games outright, they've been "relatively" competitive in both the first two. They lost by 14 vs. Louisville and by 17 vs. Florida. True, the Cats had real trouble moving the ball against the Gators. However, they'd been decent offensively against every other opponent and should find things a little easier here. Florida is giving up only 12.8 points per game and its 202.2 total yards allowed per game ranks second best in the nation. South Carolina hasn't been nearly as stingy. The Gamecocks allow 25.5 points per game and 381 yards per game, 410.3 their last three. While wins are still going to be hard to come by, I believe that the Wildcats are a much improved team from the one which South Carolina beat by 21 last season. Note that Kentucky had a 10-point lead at halftime of that one. The Gamecocks are obviously a very good team. That said, they're off a 3-point victory vs. UCF and they have yet to win a game by more than 17 points. (They beat Vandy by 10 and UNC by 17, losing by 11 at Georgia.) They're 1-3 ATS on the season. Of course, it should also be noted that South Carolina is dealing with some important injuries, most notably to their starting QB, Connor Shaw. Bottom Line: While many will be expecting a rout, I think things may be closer than anticipated. Consider grabbing the points.

Brandon ShivelyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia vs. BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Baylor -27½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia is coming off a huge win vs. HC Dana Holgorson's former team, Oklahoma State. Looking closer, Oklahoma State actually outgained West Virginia, 433- 388, but it was 3 turnovers by Oklahoma State that proved to be the difference. Baylor comes into this game with the nations #1 scoring offense at 69 PPG. They come into this game well rested and will be eager to make amends from last year's 70-63 loss. This was a game where there were 1507 total yards gained by both teams. West Virginia accounted for 807 of those yards, but this is clearly a different Mountaineer team this year that is offensively challenged. They are only averaging 392 YPG this year after losing their QB and 2 WR's to the NFL draft. They have been out gained in all 3 of their games vs. BCS opponents this year, while Baylor is 7-0 'ITS' dating back to last year. That tells me that this Baylor offense is REALLY that good. Baylor also has the edge in scheduling dynamics as they have now had 2 bye weeks and have not had to leave the state of Texas yet. Baylor is now 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games, including 5-0 ATS their last 5 conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and HC Art Briles will not let off the 'gas' tonight as Floyd Casey Stadium has proved to be one of the toughest stadiums for visitors to play in. Baylor also has a huge edge in Special Teams and I expect this to account for a +10-14 point differential in this game as well. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS as a road dog of > 4 points vs. an opponent with revenge and Baylor will be looking to light up the scoreboard tonight . West Virginia is only converting 31% on 3rd down and I still have questions about their QB, Clint Trickett, who I expect to make a few costly turnovers and the Baylor Bears will win this game easily. As long as this line stays under Baylor -28, then I recommend a play on Baylor. The linesmakers have adjusted a few extra points after West Virginia beat Oklahoma State, and that is working in our favor tonight.

Justin BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana-MonroeSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Western Kentucky -7FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky is on a two game win streak after beating Navy last week. In the last two seasons, the Hilltoppers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the month of October. They played very good defense last week, holding Navy to just 107 yards on the ground.
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Louisiana Monroe lost their star QB Kolton Browning last week to a torn quad muscle. Sophomore Brayle Brown will be under center making his first collegiate start. This is a disaster waiting to happen for ULM.
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Take the Hilltoppers in this game as they will not have to worry about Browning under center. W. Kentucky should concentrate on stopping the run which will force Brayce Brown to make some bad decisions through the air.

Carlo CampanellaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Illinois vs. Kent StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Northern Illinois -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Illinois heads into Saturday an unbeaten 4-0, but has faced solid Big Ten competition while beating Iowa, 30-27, and Purdue, 55-24. They take a huge step down in class from facing the Big Ten to the MAC as they head to Kent State. Kent State is 2-3 on the year, but their 2 victories came as favorites against unknowns like Liberty University and Western Michigan. When they do face top-caliber teams this season, it's been ugly, getting shutout, 34-0, by Penn State and losing by 32 points at LSU. Not only does N. Illinois outclass Kent State, they match-up very well in the trenches. Kent State is allowing an incredibly high 5.2 yards per rush and 199 rushing yards per game and this N. Illinois offense is led by a running game that's averaged 6 yards per carry and 266 rushing yards per game. Lay the lumber as our College Football System tells us that Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that won by double digits on the road and playing a team off a road win are 23-4 ATS!

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia vs. BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Baylor -27½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 31 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-9 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) off a bye week. Pretty simple to follow for the remainder of the season and it has gone an impressive 12-1 ATS over the past three seasons. SIM projects that Baylor will gain more than 10 yards per pass attempt and will have more than 500 offensive yards. in past games, Baylor is a solid 13-4 ATS the last three seasons and 25-11 ATS since 1992 when the have averaged 10 passing yards per attempt. Moreover, they are 3-0 ATS this season, 19-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 30-10 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 500 or more offensive yards. Take Baylor.

Strike Point SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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California +1.5 over Washington StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I remember three or four years ago when Wazzou was arguably the worst team in the history of college football. They were just awful. I know that doesn't necessarily mean much now with a new regime under head coach Mike Leach, however I still think its a bit of a stretch to see the Cougars favored on the road in league play. Yes, they beat USC in Los Angeles, but then again, look how bad the Trojans are. And besides, this Cal team has a bit more on the table than most can see from casual observation. The Bears have dominated this series with the Cougars, winners of eight straight. Last year they won in Pullman by two touchdowns, and I don't see enough changes between these two to make me think about a different result. Also, Cal has scored 30 points or more in three of their four games this season. They can put up points, and in Berkeley I see them winning as a small home underdog.We think that this Pac-12 underdog is a winner. We also have our 8-Unit College Football Game of the Year going this weekend from the Pac-12 and we think that play is a winner as well. We are all over an undervalued team going up against a team that hasn't proven themselves in our eyes. Sign up for just $30 for our single-biggest college play of the year.

Jason SharpeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern +7 over Ohio StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Very tough spot here for Ohio State who turns around just a week after their big home game with Wisconsin and has to travel to Northwestern to play a fired up Wildcats team off a bye. Ohio State hung on last week to beat the Badgers but looking at the box score and you see will a very tight contest. Still not sure what we have with this Ohio State team as they have faced a very easy schedule to begin the year with this being their toughest test to date here on the road in Northwestern.
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The Wildcats come into this game having covered nine of their last eleven at home, six straight in the conference and are 14-3 ATS their last 17 games overall. The betting markets still haven't caught up to how good of a program this really is. Coming off the bye week, Northwestern is healthier than they have been all season. This is arguably one of the biggest games in Northwestern in a long time. It's also homecoming week and ESPN College GameDay will be on hand, only adding extra excitement to what should be an electric atmosphere.
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You don't find much better set-ups for a team than this as one squad comes in beat up off a hard fought win and faces the other team who is well rested and has had two weeks to prepare. Take Northwestern plus the points here. My CFB top selections of the week are off to a very strong 4-1 record this season. This comes one year after going 11-6 with them and now combined are a very solid 15-7 overall the last two seasons. I have a big five unit CFB Game of the Week play going on Saturday that I really love this week. I like to focus my attention on the smaller schools and have found this is the easiest area for one to find an edge in the betting markets. This week's game is one where I think I have found an easy winner in an under the radar type game.

Marc Lawrence

Rutgers vs SMU
Play: SMU

Mustangs head coach June Jones might want to consult with a vet if his Ponies don’t step up their game. A 1-3 SU start has placed SMU’s streak of four consecutive bowl appearances in serious jeopardy, and a glance at the Mustangs’ remaining schedule tells us they’d better start winning soon. But we’re concerned with their ATS fortunes and fortunately for us, Jones is 22-12 ATS as a home dog versus a foe off a win, including 11-1 ATS when taking 7 or less points. Despite the Ponies’ gut-wrenching loss to TCU last Saturday, they can still call on a recent 4-1 SUATS record after fighting the Froggies. Rutgers has struggled badly as road chalk of 10 or fewer points, going just 8-15-1 ATS, but the Scarlet Knights have bigger problems. Star RB Paul James, who was the nation’s No. 2 rusher with 573 yards, is out at least the next two games with a leg injury. Considering SMU’s inconsistent play, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Knights started peeking ahead to a much bigger game in five days with Louisville (Cards barely beat Rutgers by 3 points last year in the Knights’ final home game). Still plenty of value here with the Mustangs. We recommend a 1-unit play on SMU.