Tony George
Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7
ESPN College Gameday at Northwestern? Why not! They were 3 losses and 7 points total away from being undefeated last year and Ohio State was undefeated last year! Yes the Wildcats will be fired up for this one as both teams enter undefeated, but one team is better and favored in this game, and that is the Buckeyes, but there is a big spread here to contend with. Ohio State has won the last 4 in this series and covering by 24 ppg. Ohio State’s QB Braxton Miller came back from injury and looked solid going an efficient 17 / 25 for 198 yards and 4 TDs against a decent Wisconsin defense, a defense that is better than Northwestern’s.
Northwestern off a bye week, and although playing at home, you will see plenty of OSU fans in the bleachers on Saturday night in this national TV Game. One thing about Northwestern is that their offense works, even with 2 QBs inserted at various times during the game, and their rapid pace on offense puts a ton of stress on any defense and with a bye week to get ready, you can bet coach Fitzgerald will throw everything he has in the playbook at Ohio State this Saturday. The Buckeyes gave up 399 Yards to a vanilla offense of Wisconsin last week and 4 TD’s, that bodes well for Northwestern who WILL put up points in this game.
All in all, these David versus Goliath games are always a treat to watch, especially in a shootout scenario which I think it will be. Ohio State was tested last week by a good team at home, and they will be again this week, without the luxury of being at home. Look for a tight one, and one of the more entertaining games of the day, and the Wildcats rarely go down without a fight. This is a big step up in class for NW based on who they have played, but I think with added time to prepare and a national spotlight, they will be ready to challenge and compete at a high level and give Ohio State a game for 4 quarters unless the wheels fall off, they can score on anyone.
Alex Smart
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +10½
Georgia is off a huge game vs LSU last week will now be in a letdown scenario on the road. Its interesting to note that the Dawgs have failed to cover 7of their L/8 after playing the Tigers. I expect a Tennessee side playing to a near capaicity crowd of 100,000 will be primed to play well above themselves.
Wunderdog
Northern Illinois at Kent State
Pick: Northern Illinois -8.5
We rode Kent State last week to an easy win. But, in that game they were getting points vs. a weaker team. This week things are different. The last time these two teams saw each other it was in the MAC Title game. Northern Illinois was a strong favorite, but the Golden Flashes had them on the ropes before bowing in overtime in a very exciting contest. Fast forward and Kent State is a shell of what they brought to the field in that last contest. They are 2-3 this season with wins over Liberty and 0-5 Western Michigan. They have had three lopsided losses otherwise, and this is likely to be the fourth. Northern Illinois still has Jordan Lynch at QB who has thrown for 37 TDs in his career to just 8 INTs while rushing for 28 more, generating close to 3,000 yards on the ground. That was good enough to go into the Big-10 and knock off both Purdue and Iowa. The Huskies can get it done on the road, especially against a weaker opponent as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. Kent has fallen while the Huskies are riding high. Play on Northern Illinois.
Stephen Nover
Boston College -11.5
Army wasn't even certain it was going to play due to the government shutdown.
Boston College is in revenge mode after Army upset the Eagles, 34-31, at home last year.
First-year coach Steve Addazio is trying to resurrect the Eagles. He has a powerful offense at his disposal with excellent talent at the skill positions.
Addazio is familiar with Army and its unorthodox option attack having been the coach at Temple during the two previous seasons.
While Army was feasting against weakling Louisiana Tech last week, the Eagles were building a 17-3 lead over Florida State before losing. In their last game previous to that one, the Eagles were at USC.
So this is a huge step down for the Eagles. Army has failed to cover seven of the last eight times following a win.
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Penn State at IndianaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Early start from Bloomington, Indiana where the Hoosiers play their fifth-straight home games to start the season. Both teams kickoff Big Ten play off a bye. Penn State (3-1) has beaten Indiana (2-2) 16-straight times since joining the Big Ten. Yet technical handicappers will also note that Penn State is just 1-14 ATS in its first conference game of the season.
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Both teams run an up-tempo offense and average nearly 75 plays per game. The test for the Nittany Lions will be how well freshman QB Christian Hackenberg handles his first true road start; and in conference play no-less. Fortunately, the Lions can rely on a ground game than runs for 197 ypg against a Hoosier’s run defense allowing 247 ypg and 5.1 ypr. That point-of-attack edge directs us to FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection as Penn State has the better running game and defense in this Big Ten battle and is our projected winner barring turnover troubles.
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While Indiana is averaging 44 ppg, must note that their defense is deficient allowing 33 ppg and 463 ypg while also losing to their only two quality opponents. Must respect the potent passing attack of Indiana as the Hoosiers average a league-high 348 passing ypg and 9.2 yards per pass play through four non-conference games. Strong-armed sophomore QB Nate Sudfeld has solidified the position and throws to the Big Ten’s best trio of receivers and a top tight end. Along with the emergence of RB Tevin Coleman and you see why the Hoosiers offense is potent and will get their share of points in this expected high-scoring shootout. But the question becomes can Indiana score enough against the Nittany Lions stop-unit to make up for their defensive deficiencies? Penn State gives little away, and their discipline on both sides of the ball is evident as coach O’Brien’s Nittany Lions are penalized an average of just 30 ypg this season.
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If discipline, defense and point-of-attack play perform as expected for Penn State, the Lions should extend their string of dominance over the Hoosiers. Penn State has scored 12 TD’s in 15 trips to the red zone, and they should have plenty more chances for success Saturday against the Hoosiers deficient defense.
Statfox Brian
Washington at Stanford
Play: Stanford -7
I'm big on revenge games, especially at home for an evening game. Washington ruined Stanford's season by holding them to 65 rushing yards in a 17-13 home upset, but the Cardinal, who started Josh Nunes that day, are a more multi-faceted offense with QB Kevin Hogan who is 11-0 SU (8-3 ATS) in all 11 collegiate games he's ever thrown a pass in. Stanford should control the line of scrimmage in this one after outrushing its two Pac-12 opponents (ASU and WSU) by a combined 478 yards to 101 yards. And not enough can be said about how prepared this Cardinal team has been since David Shaw arrived at Stanford, where he's 21-9 ATS (70%) overall, 19-5 ATS (79%) after an SU win, 6-0 ATS after a win by 28+ points and 10-0 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its previous game. Stanford rolls to a 20-point victory here.
River City Sports
Ohio State at Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7
A matchup of the two favorites at this point in the Big 10, both of which come into the game undefeated. Ohio State pulled out a 31-24 win last week against Wisconsin, a game that featured the return of QB Braxton Miller. He had 198 pass yds and 4 TD’s against the Badgers and looks back in mid-season form. The Wildcats have lost the last four meetings to the Buckeyes, but will get a big lift with the return of senior RB Venric Mack. The Wildcat offense is really stout, averaging 41 ppg and features a 2 QB system with Green and Colter. We think this will be an electric environment Saturday night in Evanston and really think the Wildcats have a chance to shock the world. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see the outright upset, but glad to grab the points at home!
Bruce Marshall
Rice vs. Tulsa
Pick: Rice
Is the better team getting points in this Conference USA clash? Graduation-depleted Tulsa "D" (nine new starters), continued to spring leaks in loss to Iowa State, confirming early warning from C-USA sources. Meanwhile, unassertive QB Cody Green (only 5 TDP in 4 games) showing why Bo Pelini didn't block his transfer from Nebraska. Improving Rice "D" made big plays to turn around a potential loss last week vs. FAU. Tulsa (0-4 vs. line) burning money fast.
Nick Parsons
Edmonton vs. Vancouver
Pick: Vancouver
Both teams are 0-1 and each is looking to get off the schneid.
For a number of different reasons I believe the home side is worth a second look tonight.
The Oilers
Edmonton fell apart mid-way through the second to lose 5-4 to Winnipeg in its opener (I had the Jets in that one).
Edmonton is 0-4-1 in its last five visits to Vancouver, getting held to just seven goals (that includes two shutouts as well).
I think it's significant to note that Edmonton is a poor 2-7 (-5.9 units) in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest.
The Canucks
There was a silver-lining in Vancouver's 4-1 loss to the Sharks on Thursday, killing all eight of San Jose's power plays.
If history is any precedence, then the Canucks have to be loving their chances tonight as they've earned at least one point in 17 of their last 20 home games vs. Edmonton, including a 9-1-1 record over the past four seasons.
One player that's feasted on the Oilers is Henrik Sedin with 15 points during the run of success.
Note that the Canucks are 12-6 (+3 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous contest.
The Bottom Line
Vancouver hasn't opened a season with consecutive defeats in over 15 seasons and I don't think that will change this year.
Consider laying the price on the "better" team.
Steve Merril
Arizona State vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s stock is real low after losing by 2 touchdowns at home, but the Irish have a significant defensive edge in this game and we’ll take the Irish plus the points in this game on Saturday night.
Arizona State and Notre Dame will play a neutral site game at the home of the Dallas Cowboys (AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, Texas. This is an awkward scheduling spot for Arizona State as they have to travel and play a non-conference game sandwiched between two previous conference games and seven more conference games on deck. It’s especially worse since the Sun Devils are off such a big blowout win in which they played the best football they could possibly play. Arizona State has a terrible defense that is giving up 6.8 yards per play (#112 in the country) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (#103 in the country). Their main issue in this game will be their rush defense that allows 239.7 yards per game on the ground on a whopping 6.1 yards per rush.
Notre Dame ran the ball incredibly well last week in their 35-21 home loss to Oklahoma. The Irish ran for an impressive 220 yards on Oklahoma while gaining an incredible 7.6 yards per rush. The Sooners’ defense is much better than Arizona State so Notre Dame projects to have a lot of success running the ball in this game. The Irish have a solid defense this season. Notre Dame is allowing 23.8 points per game while holding opponents to 5.1 yards per play. Their pass defense has also been good which is important against the strong passing attack of Arizona State. The Irish are allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed just 57.4% of their passes on Notre Dame. Last week’s results have created a lot of value on Notre Dame in this game. Arizona State can’t possibly repeat their performance from last week’s game against USC. And they match-up poorly against the Irish while being in a terrible scheduling situation. Notre Dame’s stock is real low after losing by 2 touchdowns at home, but the Irish have a significant defensive edge in this game and we’ll take the Irish plus the points in this game on Saturday night.
Larry Ness
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State
Was Oklahoma State caught “off guard” last Saturday by West Va? If so, the Mountaineers 30-21 upset of the then-No.11 Cowboys, has surely gotten Oklahoma State’s attention. The loss dropped OSU to No. 21 in the latest AP poll and more importantly, gives the school an unexpected Big 12 loss, with trips to Texas Tech and Texas plus home games against Baylor and Oklahoma still on the Cowboys’ schedule. It’s more than reasonable to expect that OSU will NOT likely be caught off guard by this year’s Kansas State team, one that hardly resembles the teams which went 10-3 and 11-2 under QB Collin Klein.
KSU opened its 2013 season by losing 24-21 at home as 12 1/2-point favorites to North Dakota St and two Saturdays ago, 31-21 at struggling Texas. Oklahoma State was named as the preseason favorite to claim its second Big 12 crown in three years. but the 30-21 loss at West Virginia (which was coming off a 37-0 loss to Maryland), as almost three-TD favorites, has the team reeling. Or does it? Oklahoma State has shown a strong ability to regroup under coach Mike Gundy, as the Cowboys are 10-1 in regular-season games immediately following losses dating back to November 17, 2007, and are also 31-1 vs unranked teams at home going back to 2006.
The Cowboys are 21-7-1 as a home favorite going back to 2006 and enter this game having covered their last EIGHT in the role of a home favorite "We have to approach it the same every week," said Gundy, whose team fell 10 spots in the AP poll. "It never really changes for us. There's been a considerable number of times in the last few years where we're ranked in the top 10 in the country and you're worried about looking past an opponent, and now we're saying that we've got to put that one aside and get ready for the next opponent. It's the same thing."
Sophomore quarterback J.W. Walsh had completed 70.2 percent of his passes in the team’s first three games but was awful at West Va, completing 20 for 47 (42.6), the lowest single-game completion percentage by a Cowboys QB in a regular-season game in more than six years. Walsh missed last year's 44-30 loss at then-No. 3 Kansas State due to a knee injury, and the Wildcats picked off Clint Chelf and Wes Lunt four times. Walsh was picked off twice by the Mountaineers after Oklahoma State had committed just ONE turnover as a team in opening 30-0.
As noted earlier, Collin Klein is no longer at Kansas St and Jake Waters is a poor imitation of last year’s Heisman candidate. The Wildcats two wins this year have come over UL-Lafayette (2-2) and UMass (0-4), neither one being noteworthy. Kansas St is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Marshall -14
The Thundering Herd offense has been unstoppable this season. They are averaging 39.7 points per game overall, and improve their scoring average to 53.5 points per game when playing at home. They should be able to light up the scoreboard once again, against a UTSA defense that has allowed 35.8 pointsper game this season. Marshall runs a very balanced attack on offense, and they don't have a weakness either way. On the ground they have averaged 194 rushing yards per game, and they are completing over 60% of their pass attempts for 291 yards per game through the air.
UTSA is 2-3 this season thanks to a fairly soft schedule. This week they don't have the luxury of facing another soft opponent. The Roadrunners are a very easy team to defend. They have a very strong pass bias, running the ball almost 10 carries less than they have pass attempts. That plays into Marshall's greatest defensive strength. The Thundering Herd secondary has held opponents to a 54.3% completion rate and 184 yards per game. When playing at home those numbers improve to a 44.2% completion rate allowed for 141 passing yards. Given the way these teams match up, I don't see many scenarios where the Roadrunners are able to keep this game close.
Joseph D'Amico
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Missouri
This Saturday has an interesting matchup with Missouri at Vanderbilt. The line is currently Vandy-2 with a Total of 56. Missouri is 4-0 on the season possessing a balanced offense averaging 262 yards rushing and 287 yards passing and posting 45.5 PPG. Vanderbilt came up short against both quality opponents this year in Mississippi and South Carolina, being outgained 579 yards to 268 yards. The revenge factor is alive as a Tigers team was depleted from both suspensions and injuries in last year's loss to the Commodores. Vandy has problems with mobile QBs and James Franklin is just that. Take Mizzou here.
Rob Vinciletti
North Texas vs. Tulane
Play: North Texas -3
North Texas ravels into Tulane to take on a Green Wave team that is off a Big road dog win in their last game. Tulane now fits a system that is very close to the one we used last night that played against LA. Monroe in their loss to W. Kentucky last night which cashed nicely for us. Home favorites from -3 to +25 are 36-86 to the spread long term off a road dog win at +10 or higher, vs an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or less. North Texas has the extra week to prepare and is 3-0 straight up and ats of late off a bye week, they have also won 10 of 13 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Tulane is 3-17 at home when the total is 49 to 56 and has lost 9 of 12 as a home dog of 3 or less. So we will lay the small number with North Texas.
Johnny Wynn
Ohio -4.5
Akron has played very well recently and almost beating Michigan a few weeks ago. The public sees this and knows this so they have jumped on the Zips. Ohio is an undervalued team in the MAC and today is a good day to take them.