Steve Janus
Arkansas Razorbacks +13
The Razorbacks have lost back-to-back games since opening the season at 3-0, but there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the direction this team is headed under first year head coach Bret Bielema. Arkansas gave a highly ranked Texas A&M team all they could handle at home last week. The Razorbacks trailed just 20-24 at the half and were down just 33-38 at the end of three quarters. They would end up losing 33-45, which was a marked improvement from last year’s 48-point loss to the Aggies.
It hasn’t taken long for Bielema to turn Arkansas into a force on the ground. The Razorbacks torched the Texas A&M defense for 246 yards on 45 attempts and come into this game ranked 36th in the country with an average of 211.3 ypg. The ability to run the football sets up a very favorable situation to back Arkansas. Road underdogs who feature an excellent rushing offense (averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game over the last 5 seasons.
One of the key things to keep in mind in this game is that Florida doesn’t feature an explosive offense. The Gators have reached the 30-point plateau just once this season and are currently ranked 93rd in the country with an average of just 23.8 ppg. Arkansas’ defense didn’t play all that well against Texas A&M, but are still ranked 31st in total defense, giving up just 336.4 ypg. You also have to take into consideration that Florida starting quarterback Jeff Driskel is out for the season. While backup Tyler Murphy has played well in his place, Arkansas’ defense should be able to key in on stopping the run.
It’s going to take a big time performance from both sides of the football for Arkansas to win this game, but you have to like their chances of keeping it close. I could easily see the Razorbacks covering here with just 13-17 points.
Jack Jones
Baylor -28
The Baylor Bears were one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2013. I believe they still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have not only opened 3-0 both straight up and 3-0 against the spread, they have absolutely crushed the number in all three wins. Baylor beat Wofford 69-3 as a 29.5-point favorite, Buffalo 70-13 as a 28.5-point favorite, and Louisiana-Monroe 70-7 as a 30-point favorite. It has outscored its first three opponents by an average of 62.0 points per game.
Baylor is scoring 69.7 points per game while averaging 751.3 total yards per game to rank 1st in the country in total offense. Almost equally impressive has been the improvement from the defense, which is giving up just 7.7 points and 297.0 total yards per game to rank 15th in total defense. You have to factor in that the Bears haven’t even had to play their starters for an entire game yet. That makes both the offensive and defensive numbers even more remarkable. Now, they come in on two weeks rest having last played on September 21.
West Virginia is 0-2 in its two road games this season. It lost at Oklahoma 7-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. It also fell 0-37 to Maryland, gaining just 175 total yards while committing six turnovers in the loss. While the Mountaineers did beat Oklahoma State at home last week, that sets them up for a big letdown spot against a Bears team that wants revenge from its 63-70 loss at WVU last season.
Plays on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) – off a bye week are 45-9 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against any team (W VIRGINIA) – off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, in weeks 5 through 9 are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Baylor is 15-2 against the spread in its last 17 home games. The Bears are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Baylor is 11-1 against the number in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons. This is a team that is not afraid to run up the score, which makes me unafraid of laying four touchdowns in a revenge game. Bet Baylor Saturday.
Sean Higgs
Maryland vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -16
The undefeated Maryland Terrapins travel to Tallahassee to face the undefeated, and #8th ranked Florida State Seminoles.
It is the old irresistible force versus the immovable object. Seminoles are explosive on offense posting a mind-boggling 51.3ppg. That is 4th overall in the nation. But the Terrapins bring a tough defense to town that is allowing just 10ppg. Maryland comes in off a bye week after crushing West Virginia 37-0. Plenty of extra prep time to gear up for Florida State’s freshman QB Jameis Winston.
Maryland is 2-8 ATS last 10 at Florida State and just 2-21 SU vs the Seminoles. So before we get all giddy about the Terps perfect record let’s look at some facts. Yes, this team looks like a defensive force. Terps lead the nation in sacks and negative plays. The defense is ranked 3rd in ppg and 7th in total yards. But who has this team played? Let’s look at their game before their bye week. They smoked West Virginia 37-0. Wow! I am pretty sure that this is the same West Virginia team that lost its two best wide receivers, and their starting QB to the NFL draft. This is the same Mountaineers team that gave up nearly 40ppg last year.
The week before that, they allowed 21 to UCONN. Yes, the same UCONN that lost to Towson and Buffalo. Plus they had the added advantage of their coach knowing the players of that team! Let’s not forget the offensive, football powerhouse of Old Dominion. A football factory on par with the old Miami U teams or the present day Alabama dynasty! And finally, they smoked Florida Int’l. Holding them to 10 points is a real achievement. They only just lost to Louisville 72-0. Oh that isn’t good enough. How about dropping a game, at home to Bethune Cookman! As Bill Parcells once said, ‘let’s put away the anointing oil.’
Enter Florida State off a sloppy game vs Boston College. I am happy for that game. You see, with Clemson on deck, the Seminoles know they can’t get too cute here. They already had a close call vs BC. They won’t be overlooking this group. I am sure Jimbo Fisher will get it through his guys that next week’s game will mean nothing if they get knocked off here.
Final Thoughts
We will lay it with the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES here. Let’s not beat around the bush here. Florida State has a huge advantage in talent on both sides of the ball. Maryland had the benefit of an easy schedule. This is a tough venue to play, ESPN at high noon. I think I smell some turtle soup. FLORIDA STATE wins big!
Jeff Alexander
Mississippi State +10
This is a tough spot for LSU. The Tigers are coming off an excruciating 44-41 loss at Georgia, and they have a big game against Florida on deck. Because of the scheduling, I don't believe they'll give Mississippi State the attention it deserves. The Bulldogs have had a bye week to focus on LSU, and they will be lacking no motivation because they have dropped 13 straight in the series. Mississippi State has been money at home on Saturday's under coach Mullen at 17-8 ATS. It is 11-3 ATS in Saturday home games the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games overall. Bet the Bulldogs.
Red Dog Sports
Ottawa vs Torronto
Play: Under 5½
I like the under on Saturday especially with Ottawa involved. Toronto is off to an nice start but the Senators play solid defense and have a great goalie. It does concern me that Ottawa played last night but our free pick is on under 5.5.
Freddy Wills
Army vs. Boston College
Play: Army +11½
This is very similar to last years match up as Boston College just came off a 14 point loss to Clemson, but played well and had Florida State up next and sandwiched in between was Army who upset them. This year BC just played well vs. Florida State and has Clemson up next instead.
Army is 2nd in rushing yardage per game so far this season and had over 500 yards against Army. Both these teams are run first teams so blowing the other opponent out is going to be harder to do as both rank int he top 20 in rushing play % with Army rushing it 82% of the time. Army comes off a game against LA Tech where they were +3.5 on the road and won 35-16 in convincing fashion. Army also played well at home losing 34-20 against Stanford. This is a bend but don't break defense that is very disciplined and I don't think BC's offense is good enough to win by more than TD's and even if they are able to put up points BC's defense is not good enough to keep Army from moving the ball.
Dave Price
Michigan -18½
Michigan is 4-0 but is fortunate to be so as it nearly slipped up against Akron and UConn. The Wolverines have had a bye week to regroup following those close-calls, and I expect them to be ready to go here. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Minnesota opened 4-0 but benefited greatly from a weak schedule. It met its match last week as it was outgained 464-165 in a 23-7 home loss to Iowa. The final score could have been a lot worse as Iowa led 20-0 with over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Thankfully for the Golden Gophers, Iowa decided to run out the clock. Michigan won't be feeling as generous after back-to-back lackluster efforts. It is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five against Minnesota, winning the last four by 24, 23, 58 and 22. Also, the Wolverines have rattled off 17 in a row inside the Big House. They are 11-6 ATS in these contests, including 8-3 ATS when laying 10 points or more. Lay the points.
Jim Feist
Washington vs. Stanford
Play: Under 53
A big Pac 12 matchup between a pair of unbeatens. Showdown games like this can mean lots of defense and the under is 7-2 the last nine meetings, including last year: Stanford was -7 chalk but lost 17-13 at Washington. The Huskies had 313 yds (136 rushing), Stanford had 235 (65 rushing) as Washington played a super defensive game. Stanford has one of the top defenses in the country, a powerhouse unit. They are a run-oriented offense behind sophomore QB Kevin Hogan (10 TDs, 4 INTs) behind a strong offensive line with senior RB Anthony Wilkerson (191) and Tyler Gaffney (377, 5.6 ypc). Stanford was the nation's No. 3 ranked run defense in 2012 and led the nation in sacks returning junior DE Henry Anderson and senior Ben Gardner. Play Washington/Stanford under the total.
Bill Biles
Baylor -27.5
Baylor can put up points with the best of them. However Baylor's defense is much improved and is helping get that high powered offense back on the field. West Virginia is coming off a major upset vs Oklahoma State, but they wont do it again as they Baylor should be able to win this by 30 or more.
Virginia Tech -7
VT looks to avenge last years lose to North Carolina where they lost 48-34. Virginia Tech ranks 4th in the country in total defense. The way North Carolina has played they will be lucky to score any points in this one.
Bryan Leonard
Kansas State +14
Much respect to Mike Gundy and the Cowboys at home but this line is much too high not to favor the underdog Wildcats. Since Bill Snyder returned to Manhattan the Wildcats are now 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-3 ATS when installed as a road underdog against any opponent. Off a disappointing loss to Texas followed by a bye week, we take advantage of a coaching edge here with the veteran Snyder. The last three seasons Kansas State has been outscored by Oklahoma State 106-103, a 3 point margin. In those games the Wildcats were a combined 34 point underdog. The Wildcats are converting on a whopping 59% of their third down attempts, as this team can beat you through the air or on the ground.
Oklahoma State is off an upset loss at West Virginia, the same Mountaineers team that lost to Maryland in blow out fashion. And in retrospect West Virginia was the better team on the field. We have serious concerns about this Cowboy defense which is permitting over 303 passing yards per contest against FBS competition. That includes Mississippi State, UTSA and West Virginia, not elite squads by any means. Plenty of points will be scored in this one but rarely does a Bill Snyder team get outworked. An outright victory may be too much to ask but in all honesty it wouldn't be a surprising outcome.
Joe Gavazzi
Mississippi -2.5
Must credit the job done by 1st year Auburn HC Malzahn in lifting the Tigers from 3-9 SU LY to a 3-1 ATS start. Offensive fortunes (Malzahn's specialty) have improved dramatically. The defense, however, has failed to follow suit. A stop unit that has been a sieve in recent seasons is still allowing 440 YPG this season. That is a bad omen against an angry Ole Miss team who was embarrassed on National TV last week in their step up game vs. No. 1 Alabama. The Rebels had their chances to get back in the game but failed to score twice in the red zone. When the dust cleared, it was Crimson Tide 25-0 with a 254-46 overland advantage. This week look for a major bounce by the Rebels who have already recorded road wins at Vandy and Texas this season. HC Freeze remains on a 22-7 ATS run including 7-2 ATS away of late and 5-1 ATS/loss LY. Rebels bounceback big at the expense of the Auburn defense.
Jeff Clement
Arkansas vs. Florida
Play: Arkansas +12
Arkansas has Brandon Allen at quarterback who has passed for 670 yards and 8 TD's and the running game is led by Freshman Alex Collins with 597 yards rushing and 3 TD's. Florida lost quarterback Jeff Driskell for the season so Charles Murphy has replaced him and has thrown for only 290 yards and 2 TD's. Arkansas averages 29.2 point per game but the Florida defense has only allowed 12.8 per game so it will be tough to score at The Swamp in Florida. I predict that Arkansas will score enough to cover the 12 points and give the Gators a scare in a Florida 27-23 win. Florida is 6-10 ATS last 3 seasons at home.
AC Dinero
NC State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest +8.5
Wake Forest is better than they have shown this season. Even though NC St has gotten off to a nice start this season, they are still playing with a back up QB, and laying over a TD is a tall task. The Demon Deacon defense has been respectable. They just need to start picking up the running game. Even though the statistics all point to NC St, they aren't good enough to be laying 8.5 points on the road in conference. Eventually, Wake will start producing. I believe it will be this Saturday and this game is a TD either way.
Nelly
Tulane + over North Texas
In a third straight road game last week Tulane delivered a nice win over Louisiana-Monroe and the Wave have already surpassed last season's record with three wins. North Texas is playing its first game as a Conference USA squad and they have had two weeks to prepare after hanging with Georgia respectably in the previous game. The recent numbers are ugly for Tulane at home as well as for North Texas on the road, but Tulane appears to have the more complete squad as one of the more improved teams in the nation. The statistics are much better for Tulane and the competitive effort for North Texas against Georgia featured huge breaks and came in a really bad spot on the schedule for the Bulldogs. Tulane is starting to play well despite the tough road gauntlet and back at home the Wave can deliver a nice win while holding home underdog value.
Scott Spreitzer
Maryland at Florida St
Prediction: Maryland
The Terps enter with a 4-0 SU/ATS mark, having flown a tad under the radar as far as the point-spread has been concerned. We have been on the Terps already this season and we'll play them again as a double-digit underdog. What a difference a year makes! HC Randy Edsall just needed some healthy bodies to turn around the Terrapin program. QB C.J. Brown has led his offensive attack to nearly 500 yards per game and they're equally efficient running or passing the football. While the offense is flourishing, the defense is also playing great football. Maryland allows just 266 total yards per game and they're just as stingy against the pass as they are the run. This will be the best defense Florida State will have faced so far this season and it's not even close. The athleticism of the Terps' stop unit may be a little bit of a shock for FSU frosh QB Jameis Winston who has faced the porous and out-manned defenses of Pittsburgh, Nevada (just gave up 51 points to SDSU on Friday), Bethune Cookman, and Boston College. I expect Maryland to keep this one much closer than the point-spread would indicate. The Terps are on a 6-0 ATS run overall, and I'm backing Maryland plus the points.