EZWINNERS
Maryland Terrapins +15
Sid Florida State put forth a lack luster performance last week against Boston College or did they show some holes in this Seminoles team? I expect FSU to be tested by this Maryland team that is flying under the radar. The Golden Eagles pass rush which usually resembles a high school team was able to sack FSU quarterback Jameis Winston four times last week. The Terps have one of the best defensive units in the nation and leads the country in sacks so I expect them to make Winston uncomfortable in this game. The FSU defense that is hyped up to be better than Maryland has struggled to stop the run and allow Boston College to make multiple big plays last week. The Terps offense should be able to run the ball here as well and when the Noles have to load up the box to stop the run Maryland has the speed on the outside to make the pay. Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown can make the deep throws and also has the legs to make things happen. Take the points.
Rice Owls +3
This Tulsa team looks nothing like the Hurricane teams of the past. Tulsa fans are used to seeing a high flying offense that is lighting up the scoreboard but that has not been the case with this team. The Hurricanes have had eratic quarterback play and a this team that used to average almost 35 points per game is averaging 19.5 which is just 104th in the nation. On the defensive side of the ball things are even worse. The young Tulsa defense is being torched for 37.5 points per game which is 112th in the nation. Rice is an under-rated team. The Owls run the ball well on offense where they are 30th in the nation in rushing at 219 yards per game. They should be able to do more of the same against Tulsa and win the time of possesion and wear at an already poor defnese. On the defensive side of the ball the Owls are much improved. The Owls defnese has actually held three out of their last four opponents to season low yardage including Texas A&M. Wrong team is favored, take the points.
Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5
Northwestern is coming off of a bye so they have had two weeks to get ready for this showdown, but I like Ohio State to keep rolling. The Wildcats offense is very good and will score some points. But it should be noted that they have not played a defense that is anywhere near as good as the Buckeyes defense that they will be facing today. The Wildcats have not fared well against good defensive teams as they are just 1-0 against the spread the last ten times they have hosted a team that is allowing 17 points per game or less. On the defensive side of the ball the Wildcats have concerns and I think they are going to have a hard time getting stops. Quarterback Braxton Miller matched a career high with four touchdown passes last week against Wisconsin in his first game back after injury and I expect the Buckeyes offense to continue to roll. Ohio State is 11-6 against the spread under head coach Urban Meyer and I look for them to continue to roll in this game. Lay the points.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON COLLEGE (-12) over Army
Boston College has proven so far this season that it can take care of the lesser opponents on its schedule (wins over Villanova and Wake Forest), but struggle against the deeper, more talented teams (Southern Cal, Florida State). Army is certainly one of those teams that the Eagles will have a talent edge over and it’s a series that BC has absolutely dominated, winning 24 of the 28 meetings. While we would typically be afraid of the Eagles overlooking Army with a game at Clemson next week, keep in mind that BC blew a double-digit lead to the Cadets last year and dropped a 34-31 decision as a 7-point favorite. In addition, Head Coach Steve Addazio went 2-0 against Army in his two years at Temple by scores of 42-14 and 63-32 so he is very familiar with the Cadets’ option attack. What’s more, Addazio realizes that wins are going to be difficult to come by this season for the Eagles, so games like this one will get full focus. Army has struggled mightily when playing away from home the last three years going 0-11 straight up and 1-10 against the spread and after snapping a three-game losing streak last week, they are primed for a letdown. Lay the points.
Sean Michaels
Yesterday I gave you a series play on the Tigers against the A's as a comp selection and that's off to a great start after Detroit's 3-2 win the Game One.
Back to football today with a freebie on Baylor (-28') at home against West Virginia.
The Bears are coming off their second September bye and today they open Big 12 play by hosting West Virginia in Waco.
The Mountaineers pulled off a stunning 30-21 upset of Oklahoma State as a 19 1/2-point home dog last Saturday, but they didn't need that shocker to get the Bears' attention. Baylor still remembers last year's 70-63 loss in Morgantown when Geno Smith dissected their defense for eight touchdowns.
Heading into the rematch the Bears are off to a quick 3-0 start as they've hammered Wofford (69-3), Buffalo (70-13) and U.L. Monroe (70-7) in three home outings. Quarterback Bryce Petty has completed 75 percent of his passes with eight TDs and running back Lache Seastrunk continues to power a strong ground game for coach Art Briles' multi-faceted attack.
The Bears simply have too many offensive weapons in their arsenal for the Mountaineers to contend with. They also have extra motivation to avenge last year's humiliating road loss.
3♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the LSU Tigers to bounce-back with a conference road win and cover at Miss State.
LSU lost a tough one last weekend at Georgia, but I fully expect Les Miles' team to handle their business against a Miss State team they have owned. The Bayou Bengals have won 13 in a row straight up versus the Bulldogs, and they have covered in each of the last 3 series meetings, while also covering in 9 of their last 10 visits to Starkville.
Zach Mettenberg did all he could do last week in the Tigers upset bid at Georgia, but it was not his fault the defense allowed a whopping 44 points to UGa. Do not expect the Bulldogs to be able to gouge the Tigers for that many points on Saturday night, as Miss State has been held to 23 points in their 2 games against "quality" foes Oklahoma State and Auburn.
The points have not really been of much help to Dan Mullen's team, as Mississippi State stands at 1-1 this year in the underdog role, and just 1-5 their last 6 when listed as the pup.
The Tigers are in a frisky mood tonight after last week's setback, and the Bulldogs are in their way.
Lay it with LSU.
5♦ LSU
Craig Davis
Free play of the day today is on the Tampa Bay Rays to even this series with the Red Sox at one game apiece.
So far, the Pirates and Cardinals are tied at one game apiece and the Dodgers and Braves are tied at one game apiece and I believe after today the Rays and Red Sox will go back to Tampa tied with both teams winning one game.
While Matt Moore clearly wasn't the answer on the mound for the Rays, I believe David Price will have enough gas left in the tank from Monday's win vs. Texas to get the job done vs. Boston today.
The Rays had won 10 of 12 before playing one of their worst games of the year, with errors, leaving runners in scoring position, and and horrendous pitching by Matt Moore.
Though today's starter, David Price, hasn't faced the Red Sox in the post-season as a starter, he does have a little experience in that department, and in the regular season he owns them.
Price threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings of relief against the Red Sox as a rookie in 2008, but that's it. In the regular season, Price owns a 10-6 record with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Boston, including a 6-1 record and a miniscule 1.88 ERA in Boston (over 10 games).
Take the Rays to even the series as your free play of the day.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for Saturday will be to back the Georgia Bulldogs as the road favorite as they take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville.
Georgia comes into Rocky Top off their rousing win at home over LSU last weekend, while the Volunteers barely got by South Alabama last weekend at Neyland Stadium by a 31-24 count.
The sledding gets a little easier for the Bulldogs this weekend, as UT has already suffered big losses to Oregon and Florida this season, and are simply not up to playing Georgia close for the full 4 quarters. Can they at least cover? Not likely when you consider the Vols are just 4-11 their last 15 lined home games.
Georgia has won the last 3 series meetings, covering in 2 of those 3, and no doubt that the QB matchup between Aaron Murray and Justin Worley is no matchup at all, Murray owning the hands-down edge in this one.
After slugging it out last weekend with LSU, look for Georgia to welcome this step down in competition.
Dawgs minus the road chalk for the win and cover.
3♦ GEORGIA
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Idaho Vandals, catching an awfully big number from a Fresno State team I think will come in a bit overconfident and that will fall flat in looking past this team.
Do I think a 1-4 independent team can beat an undefeated thorn in the BCS' side? No. But I honestly think Fresno State is going to be looking ahead to... wait for it... its bye week. Yes, the Bulldogs might be far too cocky for their own good, and think to themselves let's just get past Idaho and get some rest before upstart UNLV visits in two weeks.
As good as Fresno State is and can be, it allows the big plays for some reason, and that won't bode well on the road, in a high-altitude venue, against an upset-minded program. The Bulldogs’ defense has allowed almost half of its yards on just 29 plays, while its been on the field for 330 snaps. And even though this isn't necessarily a big-play Idaho team, there wasn't much to expect from a Hawai'i team that scored 34 unanswered points to fall short in a 42-37 loss to Fresno last week.
The Bulldogs traveled to Honolulu last week, returned home from the islands and now are back on the road. I'm sorry, but I'm playing the home pup to stay within the number.
3♦ IDAHO
Chris Jordan
My free play for you Saturday is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the big number against Kentucky, as the Wildcats will be no match against Ol' Ball Coach's troops tonight.
You know who we haven't heard much of this season? The guy with the jaw-dropping, bone-rattling, helmet-removing hits: Jadeveon Clowney, whose highlight hit in last season's bowl win over Michigan is close to being a memory for most, but still etched in opposing coaches minds.
Clowney has just 12 tackles - three for a loss - two sacks and four quarterback hurries this season. They're decent numbers, but they're not Clowney-esque, considering this guy was being touted as a Heisman Trophy candidate. He's even drawn criticism for not playing hard enough this season, as there are some who think he's avoiding injury, knowing he's a top 5 pick in next summer's NFL Draft.
Well, be prepared boys, Kentucky's offensive line has given up the most sacks in the Southeastern Conference with 10 for 70 yards.
Yep, my basis for playing a 3-touchdown favorite relies on a defensive end to step up his game, and continue to bring his offense back on the field by stopping Kentucky's offense. Lay the chalk here.
5♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Bryan Leonard
Georgia -10
Too much of an overreaction in this line after the Bulldogs beat LSU last Saturday. This is a team that has gone 7-2 SU on the road the past three seasons with the only losses coming at Clemson and South Carolina. Georgia is averaging a whopping 554 yards per game and that includes contests against Clemson, South Carolina and LSU. Now that's impressive. Aaron Murray is averaging 17.3 yards per completion, well above the 11.9 FBS average. Tennessee is allowing 14.5 yards per pass completion so this could be another record setting day for the Georgia signal caller. Right now leading rusher Todd Gurley is listed as questionable. We don't expect him to play, so when it's announced we expect this line to go down somewhat. So you may want to wait a bit to get this one in. Regardless we are very comfortable with the current 10 point tariff.
While Georgia has already had a bye week this will be the sixth straight week of football for the Volunteers. They were blown out when stepping up in class against Oregon, but have underperformed for most of the year against weaker opposition. Tennessee played relatively well against Florida, but the Gators don't have a competent signal caller. The Volunteers have a weak passing game which is a concern as they will need to trade points with Georgia in this contest to remain competitive. This team has been out gained in 3 of 4 FBS contests and only held a 90 yard advantage last week hosting South Alabama. Even in the contest against FCS Austin Peay the Volunteers couldn't produce a passing yardage edge.
Kyle Hunter
South Carolina -21
The Kentucky Wildcats are clearly the worst team in the SEC. Kentucky might struggle to win more than a couple games all season. The Wildcats already lost by 9 against Western Kentucky on a neutral field. South Carolina has been winning close games, but those were against teams much better than Kentucky. Here is a great chance for the Gamecocks to run away with a huge win. South Carolina beat Kentucky 54-3 two years at home. It's hard to predict a score like that, but it wouldn't shock me to see the Gamecocks win by 30 plus points here. They will dominate the line of scrimmage all game long. Look for a bigtime win here from the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina.
Anyone have gold sheet late phone service selections?
Dave Cokin
Missouri vs Vanderbilt
Pick : Missouri
Revenge is an overplayed factor that usually doesn’t rate as much attention as it receives. But there are occasional spots where getting even for a loss the prior season carries significant weight. I see that being the case tonight as Missouri takes on Vanderbilt.
The Tigers hosted the Commodores last season in what was the first ever SEC home game for Missouri. Things looked good early on as the Tigers were in control, when in-game injuries reared their ugly head. Mizzou lost both its QB Franklin and special teams ace Murphy, the backup QB proved to be a disaster, and just like that, a probable victory turned into a very disappointing loss.
Even in that loss, Missouri outgained Vandy by 100 yards and really stuffed the Commodores ground game in the process. I can see that happening again here. Missouri has a terrific ratio on the ground, rumbling for 262 per game while surrendering only 116. I think the Tigers can run it well here, and fully expect them to keep Vandy under its per game average on the ground.
My numbers also favor Missouri. I’ve got this team sitting at #22, while Vandy checks in at #48. Every set I utilize has Missouri winning the game.
Basically, this is one of my favorite types of plays. The data points one way, so does the situation and the betting number is basically a non-factor. It’s a pick the winner, win the bet scenario, and with that being the case, I’ll be backing Missouri tonight.
Dave Mathews
Stanford vs. Washington
Play: Stanford -7.5
So Washington is 4-0 and they upset Stanford last year at home, 17-13. Do you think Stanford remembers that loss? The difference here is Stanford's offensive line, which is arguably the best int he nation. They put up 55 points last week at Washington State without All-American guard David Yankey, who had to attend a family situation. He's back this week and will help protect QB Kevin Hogan, who has 832 yards with 10 TDs and 3 INTs. Stanford can win by running over you or going over the top with Hogan to wide receiver Troy Montgomery. The Cardinal gets their revenge.
Carlos Salazar
Northwestern vs. Ohio State
Play: Northwestern +7.5
Carlos says that yes Ohio St is a powerhouse and they have won 17 games in a row along with beating Northwestern in 28 of the past 29 meetings. But this game isn't about the past it's about the numbers and Carlos says they just don't add up for Northwestern to be a 7.5 point underdog. He's taking the points here as the return of Venric Mark will get the cover and a good chance at the win. If you're looking to play Carlos' rated selections pick up a full-season package or single day package today.
Doug Upstone
Tulane vs. North Texas
Play: Tulane +3.5
On Saturday, PLAY ON, teams like Tulane, rushing for 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry, against a poor rushing team like North Texas (3 to 3.5 YPC), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards per attempt in last game. Since 2004, these teams are 22-3 ATS, 88%, winning by 12.3 points a game.