Wunderdog
Columbus at New York Islanders
Pick: New York Islanders -119
The New York Islanders made the playoffs last year, and excitement is in the air this season, hoping that this team has finally turned the corner. They opened the season last night with a thrilling overtime win on the road, so they should be feeling a spark from a big win to start the season. Columbus opened last night as well and dropped a 4-3 decision to Calgary, so they might not feeling as good, packing up, and heading on the road. The Blue jackets have been a disgrace on the road where they are 141-320-15 in their last 476. They are also coming up short when playing on no rest, where they are 63-129-4 in their last 196. The Islanders are the better team as a skinny chalk here, so play on New York.
Brass Balls Picks dot com
10/5/13 SATURDAY FREE PICK: OVER 65 1/2 INDIANA/PENN STATE
25 wins and 10 losses on free picks since September 1st.
That is a winning percentage of: 71.42857142857143 %
Also, look at the blue chip play Undefeated77 has for you here:
SPORTS WAGERS
Klitschko vs Povetkin
Klitschko by TKO, KO or DISQ over Povetkin
This is a battle of Olympic Super heavyweight Gold medalists with Klitschko winning gold in 1996 and Povetkin in 2004. This fight almost happened a few years ago but then trainer Teddy Atlas kept Povetkin out, saying that he wasn’t ready. It turned out to be a good decision because Povetkin’s purse is much bigger now than it would have been before. But are Povetkin’s chances to win any better now? Probably not although they probably are not any worse.
However, we do see a tough fight ahead for Povetkin. Klitschko has gotten to a place where he is extremely difficult to beat. In fact, no one has done so since 2004. Klitschko has always been a phenomenal talent but under the right circumstances, was beatable. Very early on, Klitschko actually abandoned a fight he was winning widely with former football player Ross Puritty in 1998 because of fatigue. Purity was a journeyman that already had 13 losses at the time. That loss tabbed Klitschko with stamina and heart issues that are labeled on him today. After that loss he went on an undefeated run of 5 years until he ran into a fast punching southpaw veteran in Corrie Sanders in 2003. Sanders, a huge underdog, couldn’t miss him with the left cross and dropped him every time he hit him. 3 fights later, Lamon Brewster took everything he had for 4 rounds, until a tired and helpless Klitschko was rescued in the 5th round. But after that loss, Klitschko joined forces with Emmanuel Steward and slowly began to figure out a way to play to his strengths and minimize risk.
Fast forward 9 years later and Klitschko has improved in many ways. First of all, he’s physically stronger than he has ever been. He turned pro at 220 pounds and now he is a lean and ripped 250 pounds with steel cords for veins running up his biceps. He has more muscle density than he has ever had. And through Steward, he has learned to relax in the ring. Before, he was always tight, looking to bang guys out like he couldn’t wait to get the hell out of the ring. But Steward got him to utilize a jack hammer left jab that has allowed him to dictate the tempo in the ring. And with that style, he learned to stay out of wars and exchanges. So the trend of his fights are continual jabbing for the early part of the bout and when an opponent is tenderized enough, Wlad with come in with a heavy artillery of crosses and hooks. When he uses them, his right cross and left hook are equally devastating.
So the old blue print to beat Klitschko was either a sharpshooting puncher or an ultra-tough pressure guy that could tire Klitschko out and once he gets fatigued, that’s when you can jump on him. Many believe Klitschko will live up to the credo once stated by Vince Lombardi; “that fatigue makes a coward out of all men.” There is something to that statement. When you are gassed, you are helpless. No one wants to be there but Klitschko has done such a superb job of restructuring himself and he’s as fit and ready to go as ever.
Let’s look at Povetkin. He’s a strong, sturdy, if slightly undersized heavyweight, with good technique and heavy hands. He seemed to be more of a pressure fighter earlier in his career but hasn’t seemed quite as active as of late. He has a good chin, reasonable skills and decent power. The thing is, I would give today’s Povetkin a chance to beat the 2004 version of Klitschko. But that is not the version he is facing. And while Povetkin hasn’t been beaten yet as a pro, he has had some difficulties. Faded former champ Ruslan Chagaev gave him a tough fight for the vacant WBA title and three fights ago he was fortunate to get the win over cruiserweight champion Marco Huck who challenged for the title. Huck hurt Povetkin several times in the fight and Povetkin was on virtual fumes in the 12th round.
Povetkin is not going to outbox Klitschko from a distance. If he tries that, he will get picked apart. And he is not a speedy fighter where he can land a blow that Klitschko doesn’t see coming. His best chance is to be aggressive, and force a pace on Klitschko that he can’t keep. The problem is that this version of Klitschko will continue to stick a stiff jab into Povetkin’s face and Povetkin is not a defensive wizard. Klitschko’s jab is like a right cross and takes its toll over time. Povetkin will be earnest but he will get hit repeatedly on the way in. He has a chin but if Huck had him reeling, Klitschko can do much worse. After six or seven rounds Povetkin will began to take increased punishment. Soon after that, we see him breaking down and getting stopped and that’s precisely the way to play this one. Some books has this number as high as -160 but hopefully you'll get in somewhere around -140. We would sill recommend a bet at -160 because we give it a 75% chance of cashing.
Delvin Rodriguez vs Miguel Cotto
Delvin Rodriguez +451 over Miguel Cotto
Miguel Cotto is a pretty big favorite but he has a real fight on his hands here. Delvin Rodriguez has fallen short in some close fights but has never really been beaten up in the ring, even though he fatigued and folded against Jesse Feliciano 6 years ago. In truth, other than a 9-3 type point’s loss to Austin Trout, Rodriguez could have easily won all his other decision losses. He doesn’t seem to lack confidence but he has lacked a finishing kick or perhaps has had mental lapses in some of his closer losses. But he rematched Powel Wolak after a draw and really took him to the woodshed, essentially retiring him in their rematch. And against Trout, Rodriguez was probably about as equally competitive with him as Cotto was. (Cotto dropped a wide decision to Trout late last year.)
Cotto is still a warrior and a determined fighter but he has had so many tough fights over the years. He has much more ring mileage than Rodriguez even though Rodriguez is actually 5 months older. Rodriguez has a big height advantage in the fight and has fast hands and decent ability. Some have questioned Rodriguez’s fortitude because he doesn’t always display enough urgency in his bouts. However, his two bouts with Wolak were quite interesting. Wolak entered the first fight as a big favorite and was coming off a 6 round dismantling of former champion Yuri Foreman. Most figured Wolak would walk Rodriguez down and impose his will. And he did, but Delvin fought back. He had no choice as he wasn’t allowed to breathe. But he bit down and they waged a great war that ended in a draw. To Rodriguez’s credit, in the rematch he made some adjustments and beat Wolak at every facet of the game. The thing is, if a fighter doesn’t press Rodriguez, he will be content to fight at the slower pace. This was evidenced by his bout with Trout. There weren’t a whole lot of punches thrown and Rodriguez didn’t try to make the fight enough. It’s just not his nature. But with Rodriguez’s height and speed, Cotto will likely be looking to press Rodriguez, which will force him to punch. And Cotto’s particular in your face style will possibly bring about Rodriguez’s sharp punching in return.
Cotto has had a hall of fame career and has faced all the best guys of his generation. But he’s had a long road and he is a smallish light middleweight against a competent and fresher fighter with decent experience of his own that just might be in the right place at the right time. Cotto will find himself in a real fight against Rodriguez who has the size and ability to cause problems. If this fight were offered at even money, we’d probably tip Cotto but that doesn’t mean Rodriguez isn’t live in this contest. We don’t see Rodriguez getting run over and it would not surprise us one bit to see him pull this one out. Big overlay.
Scott Quigg vs Yoandris Salinas
Quigg by KO, TKO or DISQ over Salinas
Scott Quigg is one of the UK’s best fighters going. He has been tearing through sturdy opposition and has won 13 of his last 14 by KO. He’s strong, hard hitting, especially to the body, and very big for a 122 pounder. His most impressive win was against rugged top contender Rendell Munroe, who Quigg dispatched of in 6 rounds. Salinas is a Cuban expatriate and was a national amateur champion although he didn’t compete in the Olympics.
As a top Cuban amateur, Salinas obviously has some skills and talent but we don’t see him as the force of a Rigondeaux and that type. Not all Cuban amateurs are destined to be great pros and many fall short. Salinas kind of emulates a poor man’s Floyd Mayweather but we view his as more sizzle than steak. With the exception of a draw with former champ Nehomar Cermeno who was 1-4 in his last five fights entering the bout, he has feasted on very soft opposition.
Quigg is quite fierce and really on top of his game as of late. Salinas doesn’t appear to have the physical presence to stand up to Quigg and we don’t think he’s that tremendous that he will confound Quigg for any length of time. Look for Quigg to win inside the distance, perhaps somewhere around the 7th round. The Quigg KO proposition is about even money depending on where you play. He is a fire breathing pressure fighter that has 12 rounds to work with and he figures to put away Salina well inside that number.
LT Profits
Tampa Bay vs Boston
Pick : Under 7.5
After losing Game 1 of the ALDS yesterday, the Tampa Bay Rays have the right pitcher on the mound as they look to even the series with the Boston Red Sox in David Price. Price got off to a poor start due to a triceps injury that undoubtedly bothered him earlier than he let on, but Price looked like himself again going 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 84 strikeouts vs. just 13 walks after the All-Star break, and he tossed a Complete Game in the tiebreaker vs. the Texas Rangers allowing two runs and seven hits. However, he is not the only hot pitcher here as John Lackey did not deserve a 10-14 record this year given his 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and he allowed just 18 baserunners in 21.1 innings his last three starts. The ‘under’ is 21-4-1 in Lackey’s last 26 starts on grass.
LSU vs Mississippi St
Pick : LSU -7
The LSU Tigers come off of that 44-41 loss to Georgia last week, and while a letdown is possible vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the fact that the Tigers lost may actually motivate them here as they know they can ill afford another slip-up as even a one-loss SEC team still has a chance to go to the BCS Championship game if Alabama has one stumble somewhere. There is no doubt regarding the talent advantage LSU has here and the Tigers have a much more balanced offense cutting quarterback Zach Mettenberger loose as they are averaging 281.8 passing yards and 192.2 rushing yards. The Bulldogs are 2-2, but they have not beaten much in Troy and Alcorn State of the FCS while they lost to Oklahoma State and Auburn, neither of whom is on the level of LSU. LSU is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 head-to-head meetings.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay / Chicago Over 5.5
The Chicago Blackhawks needed to erase a deficit of their own in their season opener, defeating the Capitals 6-4 to pick up right where they left off last year. Conversely, the Lightning will look to get their first win, after getting dropped by the Boston Bruins 3-1 Thursday night. They shouldn't have it easy against the Blackhawks, who are loaded from top-to-bottom with offensive fire power. The Blackhawks finished 2nd in the NHL last season, scoring 3.10 goals per game, trailing only the Pittsburgh Penguins. You don't need to look back very far to find the Lightning, who were 3rd in the league in scoring, potting an average of 3.06 goals a game. So, scoring goals wasn't a problem for the Lightning, but keeping it out of their own net was. While they scored 3.06 goals a game, they gave up 3.06 a game so they weren't getting anywhere with that formula. Goalie Andres Lindback is a talented youngster, but he isn't good enough to carry the load himself. The Lightning need a much improved defense to give him a little bit of assistance. The Lightning defense and Lindback could be in for a long night against the Blackhawks, who should light the lamp with regularity Saturday behind Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. I foresee Tampa getting back to 2012-2013 form tonight: score some goals, but give up too many to overcome a barrage of goals from their opposition. I'll be on the over.
San Jose Sharks +106
Often times when I am taking a good sized favorite I will choose to bet them to win in regulation rather than lay the chalk. Almost all sportsbooks offer the option to bet on a team to win in regulation. For example at5dimes you will be able to bet Sharks (1st 60 minutes) -1/2. Or at Pinnacle you will look under hockey and click "NHL Regulation Time". If you can't bet them in regulation time I would risk 2.00 units to win 1.32 units on them to just win outright.
The San Jose Sharks were one of the best home teams in the NHL last year as they had only two regulation losses at home going 17-2-5, and 25-16-7 overall on the season. The Coyotes missed the postseason last year going 21-18-9 on the year and just 7-10-7 on the road. Both of these two teams have opened their season with 4-1 victories, as the Coyotes beat the Rangers 4-1 on home ice while the Sharks beat Vancouver 4-1 in their home opener. These two teams met 5 times last year with the Sharks winning 3 of those (2 in regulation). The Sharks outshot Phoenix in every meeting. We've got two good goalies between the pipes tonight, but I think the Sharks have a clear advantage at home where they always seem to come out with a lot of energy. The Sharks are 42-17 in their last 59 home games, while the Coyotes are just 5-14 in their last 19 road games. Over the past few years the Coyotes are just 5-16 in their last 21 meetings in San Jose. I like the Sharks in regulation tonight getting plus money.