Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 6

DUNKEL INDEX

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Washington Huskies at OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington (3-1) looks due for a letdown after their 17-13 upset win versus Stanford on the last Thursday in September despite being a 7-point underdog. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. Now Washington must go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. That win over the Cardinal was also the Huskies just first point spread cover in their last six encounters against a team with a winning record. Washington has not had much luck against the Ducks as they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Oregon that includes a 0-4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 trips to Autzen Stadium. Oregon (5-0) failed to cover their big 30.5-point spread last week at Washington State -- but the Ducks have then rebounded to be 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a point spread loss. Oregon is also a stout 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October. Look for the Ducks to put up a big number against a still-suspect Washington defense. Lay the points with Oregon.

MLB Predictions

New York Yankees - 1.5

With the Yankees 10-2 win over Boston lsat night and Baltimore loss they can clinch the AL East by winning out their final two games against the Red Sox. Boston has lost 6 straight games and 10 of their last 11 games. Over there 6 game losing skid they have scored just 13 runs (2.17 runs per game). The Yankees have scored 19 runs over their last 2 games alone, and 8+ runs in 4 of their last 6 (which they are 4-2 in). On the mound for Boston tonight is Jon Lester who is 9-14 on the season with a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .270 opponents batting average. He is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA vs New York this year. Take note that the Red Sox are just 13-19 in games he has started this sesason. New York will turn to David Phelps to make a start tonight. He is 4-4 on the season with 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .226 opponents batting average split between time as a starter and a reliever. As a starter he is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA, which included a September 12th start in Boston where he went 5.2 innings giving up just 1 earned run. Note that the Red Sox are an awful 16-40 in their last 56 overall, 7-19 in their last 26 road games, and 7-21 in their last 28 games following a loss. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games, 12-4 in their last 16 overall, and 8-2 in their last 10 divisional games. This Boston team has scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 9 games, and that won't be enough against this Yankees team that has hot bats lately. Take New York by 2+.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston -101 over CHICAGO

The Cubs lost their 100th last night to these Astros. They couldn’t avoid the embarrassing triple digit loss number and now they have nothing to play for tonight. Playing behind Chris Volstad isn’t going to motivate them much either.

Volstad’s numbers, both surface and beneath, are about as ugly as it gets. He has 43 walks and 55 K’s in 109 innings. He has a 6.64 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP and three wins in 20 starts. His xERA is 6.76, his ERA at home is 6.27 and his ERA over his past four starts is 11.22. He only has a job because the Cubbies are obligated to pay him 2.6M a year and for that money, they may as well ship him out there for one last start.

The Astros are on their NL farewell tour. They will begin next season as an AL club and they’re still giving it their all with three wins in their last four games. With all the upheaval in Houston, it's easy to forget there are a few major-league level players already on the team. Bud Norris is one of them. Norris has 161 K’s in 162 frames. His xERA is a full run lower than his actual ERA and he’s coming off a very good September. He also threw a gem his last start out against the Cardinals. Norris is a pitcher to watch in 2013 and certainly offers up more value as a pooch than Volstad does as the favorite.

Philadelphia +114 over WASHINGTON

It’s been a long road for the Washington Nationals since moving from Montreal seven years ago. The Nats had consecutive 100-loss seasons and many last place finishes so last night’s clinching of the NL East was worthy of a big celebration. After a night in which the players post game T-shirts were soaked with champagne and the victory celebration lasted well into the night, it now becomes a great situational fade.

The Nats are setting their rotation for the playoffs so Tom Gorzelanny will get this meaningless start. Had they not clinched last night, Gio Gonzalez would have started. Gorzelanny has been in the pen all season. Three innings was his longest outing this season. He’s put up decent numbers as a reliever but a starting job is one he’s never been able to keep.

B.J. Rosenberg has 21 K’s in 21 innings since his call-up. He’s made 21 relief appearances and now gets a chance to start. His fastball tops off at 96 MPH. He isn’t afraid to work inside and he has shown the ability to spot it with precision. Rosenberg’s slider is nasty and he uses it as his strikeout pitch. He’ll now face a Washington team that really has no interest in this game and is likely to rest many of its starters.

Minnesota +144 over TORONTO

The Twins offer up too much value against such a raw rookie here to pass up on.

Chad Jenkins has made two starts lasting just 8.2 innings to go along with some relief appearances totalling 18.1 innings for a combined 27 innings over 10 games. The Blue Jays have lost all 10 games he’s appeared in. He’s also allowed 14 runs and walked 10 batters over his brief stay. The strikeout rate is surely a disappointment, as it has been on a downward trend since signing as a first round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s a fastball pitcher with weak secondary stuff and major league hitters feast off guys like him.

Anthony Swarzak is a little more seasoned with 252 career innings. He’s certainly not going to dazzle many and he’s had trouble keeping his starting job at this level but what he brings is great control, a groundball bias profile and a more experience than his counterpart. This one is all about taking back a hefty tag against a minor league pitcher.

MIAMI +149 over N.Y. Mets

R.A. Dickey is coming off his 20th win and the celebration that comes with that achievement. There are endless interviews, emails, telephone calls and congratulatory texts that he’s had to field. The result is a huge letdown spot here. It’s equivalent to a pitcher’s first game out after a no-hitter. It becomes anti-climactic.

Expect the Marlins to be a little extra motivated here, as the Mets have announced that Dickey will go for his 21st win on four days rest. If New York was involved in a pennant race and this was a crucial game, the Marlins could understand and accept that decision. Being 23 games out with two left and going with a guy on short rest is an insult to the Fish. They’ll do their best to respond appropriately.

Jacob Turner remains a work-in-progress but has pitched well since his trade here from Detroit. He had a 14/1 K/BB in his first 17 IP with Miami and he’s posted a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts covering 18 innings. When all is equal, Dickey has an edge on the hill over Turner. However, the Mets’ choice to start Dickey makes this is a strong situational play against a team that has dropped three in a row and one that can’t wait for this season to conclude.

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Washington Huskies at OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington (3-1) looks due for a letdown after their 17-13 upset win versus Stanford on the last Thursday in September despite being a 7-point underdog. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. Now Washington must go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. That win over the Cardinal was also the Huskies just first point spread cover in their last six encounters against a team with a winning record. Washington has not had much luck against the Ducks as they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Oregon that includes a 0-4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 trips to Autzen Stadium. Oregon (5-0) failed to cover their big 30.5-point spread last week at Washington State -- but the Ducks have then rebounded to be 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a point spread loss. Oregon is also a stout 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October. Look for the Ducks to put up a big number against a still-suspect Washington defense. Lay the points with Oregon.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois at WisconsinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Badgers scored 27 points in a 3-point loss to Nebraska last Saturday. Wiscy jumped out to a 27-10 lead and on paper, it looked like the offense finally got it together. But Nebraska actually gifted 17 points to the Badgers. Nebraska turned the ball over twice inside their own 25-yard line, leading to Wisconsin TD drives of 23 yards and 13 yards. The Badgers also kicked a FG after a roughing the punter penalty at midfield marked the ball inside Husker territory. Wisconsin gained a total of just 295 yards, including 90 yards in the second half. Wisconsin's offense is struggling badly up front, which has affected their bread-and-butter ground game. Meanwhile, the Illini offense has scored a grand total of 45 combined points against Penn State, Louisiana Tech, and Arizona State. There top two QBs have produced just 8 TD passes with 6 INTs on the season and have been sacked 13 times! Look for the Badgers' defense to continue Illinois' offensive struggles. At the same time, I expect Wiscy to work on that sluggish ground game, moving the clock while controlling the line of scrimmage. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Illini & Badgers on Saturday. T

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Miami FL at Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami FLFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It has been decades since this rivalry had an intense meaning, but both programs are moving back to their elite status they both enjoyed. This will mark the first time since 1980 that Notre Dame will be favored over the Hurricanes, but note that this is the first regular season game they have played since 1990.
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Notre Dame fans still remembers with passion the the beatdown the Hurricanes put on the Irish winning 58-7. At one point, it was one of the premier and much anticipated games with a nickname attached of ?Catholics versus the Convicts? and fortunately Miami has cleaned up their program and have rid themselves of that character flaw. However, they have not rid themselves of the swagger that was made the Hurricanes National Champions under head coach Jimmy Johnson.
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The biggest disparity between these two teams are their defensive units. Miami ranks 100th in scoring defense allowing 33.4 points per game. On offense, Miami is quite strong ranking 15th averaging 328.4 passing yards per game, 84th averaging 144.2 rushing yards per game, and 38th scoring 35.6 points per game.
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Notre Dame ranks third best nationally allowing just 9.0 points per game. Offensively, they have sputtered and have lacked consistent execution. The Golden Domers rank 86th averaging 211.0 passing yards per game, 86th averaging 140.3 rushing yards per game, and 77th scoring 25.8 yards per game.
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Based on my favorite statistical reading, yards-per-point, Notre Dame ranks 44th nationally posting a 13.6 offensive yards-per-point ratio. Miami ranks 47th posting a 13.8 yards-per-point offensive ratio. On defense, Notre Dame has posted a remarkable 32.4 opponent yards-per-point reading ranking third best nationally showing how stingy they have been allowing points. Last season they posted a mediocre 16.6 opponent yards per point reading.
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This level of defensive excellence is not sustainable by Notre Dame. Last season, Alabama led the nation in this category with a 24.1 opponent yards-per-point reading. LSU was second best posting a 23.0 ratio reading. In 2010, Missouri?s defensive unit led the nation with a 21.7 YPP reading. So, now team has maintained this level of excellence for the entire season and I believe the Miami offense is going to create huge matchup problems for the Irish.
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There are numerous high-performance game situations that support Miami in this game. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS when facing good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game on the season in game splayed over the last two seasons; 6-0 ATS versus strong rushing defenses allowing 120 or fewer rushing yards per game in games played spanning the last two seasons. Hurricane head coach Golden is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points in all games he has coached since 1992. This includes his successful rebuilding of the Temple University football program.
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The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will score between 22 and 28 points. This has not been good news for the Irish as they are just 15-34 ATS since 1992 and on a 0-4 ATS skid spanning the past three seasons. The sim also shows a detailed projection that Miami will pass for 200 to 250 net passing yards. In past games, the Irish are just 2-5 ATS the past three seasons and 19-28 ATS since 1992.
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Take the Miami Hurricanes as a 10* graded Titan Play.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois vs. WisconsinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IllinoisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin is coming off a brutal loss against Nebraska last week as it blew a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter. It has been that type of season for the Badgers as they opened with a poor performance against Northern Iowa and instead of bouncing back strong, they were defeated at Oregon St. and have not been able to recover. The loss last Saturday showed that this is a team in a transitional period and they cannot be trusted to win big, especially when being asked to lay a lot of points. "This is the worst feeling ever. We had it. We clearly had it," Wisconsin running back Montee Ball said after the Nebraska game. "We were dominating the entire game until, well, the entire first half. We just have to play a four-quarter game. We have to keep our foot on the gas." That has been a problem all season as the Badgers have gotten horrible quarterback play and the offensive line has been one of the worst in recent years for Wisconsin. Until they can figure it out, they are a clear fade. Illinois has dropped two straight games by 28 points each and that is certainly being taken into consideration with this line. The thing is though is that the Illini actually played decent in those games as they were outgained by only 79 and 18 yards but turnovers killed them both games. The gave it up six times against Louisiana Tech and three times against Penn St. and those turnovers led directly to 45 points so there is no way a team can overcome that no matter how good it moves the ball. Illinois has given up some big point totals along the way but the defense isn't that bad as it ranked 31st in the country in total defense. Also, the Illini have allowed opponents to convert on only 29.7 percent of third down attempts which is 19th best in the country. Offensively, things have been tough with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase being slowed by a sore ankle but he has improved and said he is much better. His mobility is a big priority for the Illini to sustain drives on offense. Wisconsin has not covered in four straight home games while Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss against the number and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Also, we play against teams in a conference matchup that are averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc on the ground going up against teams allowing between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc on the ground. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons.

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Penn StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Penn StFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For starters, I always like when I see a ranked team getting points from an unranked team. You know from jump-street that every square will be going the other way when they see this (22) and be shocked, shocked when the team losing. Well Penn State is 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs Northwestern and 4-0 ATS last 4 overall in the series. The calender gets ugly for Northwestern in October as they are on a 2-9 ATS run their last 11. A true Halloween nightmare in the making for the Wildcats as their undefeated season, and their Top 25 ranking go to what will be an Un-Happy Valley at high-noon.

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Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland is the hottest team coming into the playoffs winning each of their last six games including sweeping Texas to overtake them for the AL West division. Detroit went 8-2 in their last 10 to walk away from Chicago White Sox to win the division. Detroit has a powerful lineup which includes triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera and possible AL MVP winner of this year. Justin Verlander is 2-0 in two starts this year against Oakland allowing just a single run in those two games combined. Jarrod Parker is on the hill for Oakland and this year he went 13-8 with an era under 3.50. Against Detroit this year though he was 0-1 in a single start with a 3.18 era. Look for a decent pitchers duel for the first half of the game, but the second and third time through the order will spell doom for Parker and the A's as that is went the Tigers will strike and that is when Verlander just gets tougher. Play Detroit

Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas vs. AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArkansasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think it's safe to say that Arkansas hit rock-bottom in last week's 58-10 drubbing at the hands of Texas A&M. There really is nowhere for the Hogs to go but up this week, and I think a matchup with another struggling team, the Auburn Tigers, will suit them well.
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Arkansas is a proud football program, and one that boasts plenty of talent. They've strayed way off course over the last few weeks, but the fact remains, this is a quality football team that can still make some noise this season. If they're able to pull out a victory this week, they have a pair of winnable home games on deck, and could very well be 3-2 in SEC play heading into November.
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It's not as if Auburn has been setting the world on fire. The Tigers are just 1-3 SU and ATS on the season, and have been held under 20 points in three of their four games to date. Yes, they put forth a strong showing against LSU two weeks ago, but I think that narrow loss had more to do with a complacent Bayou Bengals squad than anything else. Note that Auburn was still outgained by 168 total yards in the 12-10 setback.
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If you look at the numbers, Arkansas actually holds a decided edge on both sides of the football in this matchup. The Tigers have become a rather one-dimensional team due to their lack of experience at the quarterback position, while the Razorbacks remain loaded with experience and talent across the board on offense. Defensively, the Hogs have a lot of work to do, but they've been stronger than Auburn in the trenches, holding the opposition to 4.1 yards per rush, and that could turn out to be the difference in this game.
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Auburn crushed Arkansas by 22 points two years ago, but that was a much different team, one that was led by Cam Newton, who ran for 188 yards and three scores in the victory. The last time the Tigers beat the Hogs by double-digits prior to that was way back in 2005. Since then, Arkansas has taken three of the last six meetings by at least 17 points, including a 38-14 beatdown last year.
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Everyone is down on the Razorbacks right now. While I agree that Arkansas has turned into a bit of a circus act with head coach John L. Smith at the helm, I still believe that his players have a lot left in the tank, and more than just pride to play for at this early stage of the season. Last week's loss was downright embarrassing, and I look for the Hogs to make amends with a competitive effort this Saturday.

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise St vs. Southern Mississippi
Pick: Boise StFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Take a look at Boise State coach Chris Petersen’s rise over the last four years: 50-3 SU combined, pushing Petersen’s career record at BSU to 73-6 (that’s right, he started 23-3 – and got a lot better!). But we all know about the rise and fall of empires, and we’re seeing just how big a role was played in the Broncos’ rule by departed QB Kellen Moore and former offensive coordinator Brent Pease. Without them, the bluebloods own the nation’s No. 64 passing offense and No. 65 rush offense, not the sort of attack that fuels one-loss seasons – something Boise fans have become accustomed to. Still, with Petersen calling the shots, we won’t dismiss the Broncos’ outstanding 12-2 SU and 11-2-1 ATS effort on the road off another away game… but we’d rather not back them in this dangerous situation. Following USM’s mortifying 42-17 loss to Western Kentucky, the whole world turned on the Golden Eagles. Except us. We gave ‘em the call to play a tight one with a superior Louisville team last week and they went wing-to-wing with the Cards before falling just short, 21-17. With new head coach Ellis Johnson off to an 0-4 SU start and a visit to UCF on deck, this is must-win territory for the wounded Eagles. Fortunately, they get some unexpected help from the ATS archives. Smissy is 14-6 SU and 15-5 ATS at Hattiesburg versus a foe off back-to-back wins, and a bankable 15-4 SU in the last 19 home games – with NO loss coming by more than 10 points. Expect another ferocious effort from the backed-into-a-corner hosts today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Southern Miss.

Greg ShakerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn St. -2.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Everything put together here tell me and My Model that a Fair line should be Penn State -7.1. That makes this 2% for me and the fact is, Northwestern might be 5-0 straightup, but they are not the better team and have just 1 game under their belt on the road. That was a 1 point winner verses sub-par Syracuse. Penn State is playing very strong D and that IS what wins games most of the time. 2% for me

Johnny DetroitFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami +14FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am not buying into the Notre Dame hype. They were out-gained by Michigan 299-239 and held onto a 13-6 win at home despite forcing six turnovers, including four INTs off Denard Robinson. Notre Dame has a great defense but a poor offense and will not be able to keep up with Miami. The Hurricanes took out NC State 44-37, but missed three FGs that kept the Wolf Pack in the game. This line should be no higher than 10, so the 14 gives us a great play in this spot.