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Nebraska +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking my beloved Huskers here. Since the UCLA debacle, the Huskers defense has came together. The Husker offense is the story here. OSU one demsional with a running QB in Miller and running QBs do give NU trouble, but Huskers can trade points with QB Martinez throwing to WR Stills and RB's Burkhead and Abdullaha are one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the nation, as well as a dual threat QB of their own! Huskers average 7+ yards per play and eat clock doing it. Off a comeback win against Wisconsin NU is full of confidence and battle tested, and OSU coming off a hard fought and brutal win at Miich State, I like Nebraska's expereinced and veteran offense that is clicking here. Bo Pellini an OSU grad and will have the Huskers fired up here
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Arkansas +8.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Okay let's not sugar coat anything here both Arkansas and Auburn have been a major disappointment so far and Auburn comes off a bye, but there is no way they should be favored by more than a TD as they haven't been able to do anything on offense ranked 117th in total offense. Even if they are facing the Razorbacks who are 120th in total defense. Their QB Kiehl Frazier is completing just 52% of his passes with 2 TD and 7 interceptions. Arkansas has actually been decent stopping the run so how is Auburn going to be able to move the ball? Most of Arkansas troubles have been related to turnovers.
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Speaking of which Auburn is -2/game in turnover margin so they are right there with Arkansas. Despite losing big to Texas A&M, Arkansas had a lot of positives to take away. Like they did not allow a sack to a team that was one of the best in the game with 5 sacks per game. Arkansas passing game continues to be really good as they are ranked 20th in yardage while RB Knile Davis showed a little life last game. I think this will be the first game they can have a little balance with Auburns run defense being just awful ranked 104th in yards allowed and 92nd in yards per carry allowed.
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For the first time all season Arkansas defense should be able to help them win. This unit was supposed to be the strength this year, but they have been disappointing, but a bright note is that they are limiting opponents to 37.7% conversions on third downs and Auburn has been awful converting on third down with no sort of threat. Look for Arkansas to win that battle in a close game. Auburn is dead last in the SEC in run defense and points scored and those two are very bad combinations that will hurt them Saturday.
Bobby ConnFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Penn StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NorthwesternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern has played well early in the year and I like that to continue this weekend. You always have to be careful with a Pat Fitzgerald coached team as they are more than capable of pulling off the upset. With Penn State struggling they are primed to be taken down at home on Saturday.
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Nebraska +3½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First-year Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is 5-0 this season with a Buckeye squad that was just 6-7 last year. One of last year's losses was a 34-27 let-down at Nebraska, as the Cornhuskers dominated the line of scrimmage and rushed for 234 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Nebraska is 4-1 behind their powerful running game, that's gained 259 rushing yards or more in each of their first 5 games. Both teams won their Big 10 openers last Saturday, with OSU winning at Michigan State by a point, 17-16. Ohio State may be undefeated, but they've played a terrible schedule, beating teams like Miami-OH, UCF, and UAB and this will be their toughest opponent by far this season- and their first loss!
Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. San Diego State
Play: HawaiiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii has been crushed in it's games so far this season - however I have to say here that they have played some great defenses against USC and BYU. And against Nevada the weakest defense they have faced this season that did manage to score 24 points. For today they will be facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 86th in the nation in total yards allowed, 112th in passing yards allowed, and 93rd in points allowed. So I can see the Warriors putting up a good number on the scoreboard here. So with the odds makers being forced to post this ridiculous high number here to try and get some Hawaii money - makes for a highly recommended play on Hawaii here today. Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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Cincinnati vs. San Francisco
Pick: San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of aces will be on the mound Saturday night as the Giants host the Reds. Matt Cain is hot right now giving up just 3 runs and 12 hits over his last three starts. Cain has a 2.03 ERA at home and a 2.79 ERA overall. He has given up just 5 earned runs in his last four home starts. In fact, the righty has allowed 2 runs or more just once in his last ten starts overall. The Reds offense has been pitiful in their last 10 games hitting .209 overall while averaging just over 2 runs per game. The Giants’ bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 in their last ten games.
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Johnny Cueto makes the road start for Cincinnati in Game 1. He's had his issues away from home going 9-6 with a 2.77 ERA in those games. The Reds’ starter has allowed 13 runs in his last five starts. He's actually less solid at night going 7-7 with a 3.65 ERA compared to the daytime when he is 12-2 with a 1.99 ERA. Cueto's last start in San Francisco was a loss after giving up 3 runs and six hits in six innings of work. San Francisco is hitting .260 at home where they are putting up nearly 4 runs per game. We recommend laying the short price with the home favorite in this game on Saturday night.
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Boise State vs. Southern Mississippi
Pick:Boise State
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Southern Miss is a complete mess right now, a shell of the team that went a school record 12-2 last year. We all know what happened in the offseason. Head coach Larry Fedora took the North Carolina job. Four year starting QB Austin Davis graduated as did their top two receivers and a third round NFL draft choice off the offensive line. The defense suffered even greater graduation losses, including five of their top eight tacklers; weaker on all three units in 2012 compared to 2011.
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That’s just the starting point. New Golden Eagles head coach Ellis Johnson has already seen two quarterbacks go down with injuries, leaving Ricky Lloyd – the guy who finished the preseason three-way quarterback competition in third place, and completed a grand total of two passes for 25 yards last week – healthy enough to start. Their defense has been nothing short of awful, ranked #118 in the country in third down conversion percentage, unable to get off the field.
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Two weeks ago, against a mid-level Sun Belt team, the Golden Eagles were thoroughly dominated in a 42-17 loss, outgained by nearly 300 yards. The week before, they lost at home as TD favorites to East Carolina. Don’t be fooled by last week’s closer than expected result against Louisville – a ‘chance of showers’ turned into a torrential downpour that negated the Cardinals speed edges on both sides of the ball. This is the Golden Eagles first 0-4 start since 1976 and they know they’re not good.
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Johnson seems lost about how to fix their myriad of problems. “"I think when you're not performing well in so many different areas, you have to start back at the head coach's feet. We've got to start back at square one and evaluate everything we're doing, from personnel to schemes to practice and just see what we can come up with and improve our football team….It doesn't get any easier.... It's a tough way to grow up, but we are going to have to grow up or we are going to suffer.”
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Boise fell asleep with a 25-0 halftime lead at New Mexico last week, allowing the Lobos to make things interesting by the fourth quarter. That served as a wakeup call for the Broncos, who had early morning practices all week to adjust for their 10 AM local time kickoff. Expect a vastly improved intensity level here, leading to a comfortable Broncos victory. Take Boise.
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Southern Miss +10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The value lies with So. Miss catching double digits at home. The Golden Eagles showed well last week in a 4-point loss to undefeated Louisville as they held the Cards to just 269 yards. I also expect them to have success in slowing down a Boise State offense that has taken a big step back this year. It ranks just 98th in the country in scoring with 22.8 points per game. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. The Golden Eagles are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.
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LSU -2.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The LSU defense, which is only allowing 217.8 yards and 12.6 points per game, will be the difference in this one. Florida is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2010 season when matched up against good defensive teams that allow 4.5 yards or less per play. The Gators have lost to these teams by an average of 14.2 points. Plus, road favorites that check into a Saturday matchup off 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 73-34 ATS the last 5 seasons and 40-15 ATS the last 3 seasons. Look for LSU to make it 3 in a row against the Florida.
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest vs. Maryland
Pick: MarylandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Maryland Terrapins host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Byrd Stadium in ACC play on Saturday. Neither school is a ‘player’ for this season’s title, as Wake Forest comes in 3-2 (1-2 in the ACC) while Maryland is 2-2 but has yet to play a league game. This is only the second game away from home for Wake Forest and in its first try, lost 52-0 at Florida State. The Demon Deacons were totally embarrassed in that contest, allowing 612 yards and offensively, QB Tanner Price (coming off a solid 2011 season in which he threw for 3017 yards with 20 TDs and just six INTs), looked like a high school player, completing 8-of-22 for 82 yards (at least no INTs). Now I don’t want to argue that Maryland is all that much better than Wake but in the team's biggest “step up” game of the 2012 season to-date, the Terps played very competitively at Morgantown. Maryland was tied with West Va at 14-all in the mid-second quarter and lost just, 31-21 (as 26-point underdogs). You just may have heard that West Va features a pretty fair QB in Geno Smith and while he threw for 338 yards with three TDs vs Maryland, that’s a far cry from the 463.3 YPG passing he’s averaged in his other three games this season, while tossing 17 TDs! Maryland hasn’t played since that Sep 22 trip to Morgantown and should be primed for its league-opener here at home. The home team has dominated this series the last five years, winning all five by an average of 22 PPG, while going 4-1 ATS. Let’s note that Wake Forest is playing for a SIXTH straight week and is coming off a 34-27 home loss to Duke last Saturday, the first time the Demon Deacons have lost to the Blue Devils since 1999. Adding insult to injury, Wake WR Campanaro broke his hand in the second quarter and listed as out indefinitely. Maryland’s early defensive numbers of 19.0 PPG and 227.3 YPG allowed after three games might have been questioned prior to visiting Morgantown but NOT now. I mentioned that Smith was held in check (in comparison to his other three games in 2012) and the entire West Va offense was limited to 363 yards (just 25 yards rushing) and only 24 points (West Va’s first score came on a 51-yard fumble return). Randy Edsall struggled through a 2-10 first season at College Park and the former UConn coach (led Huskies to five bowl berths in seven years as a member of the Big East), could sure use a win here, in his 2012 ACC opener. I’m betting he gets it. Lay the short number.
John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern at Penn State
Prediction: Northwestern
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It will be home coming in Happy Valley and it has certainly been very commendable that Penn State is on a solid three-game winning streak. In fact, arguments can be made that they could be 5-0 after losing the first two games of the regular season by a combined 11 points. Still, it will take a monumental effort for the Lions to post their fourth straight win. My College Football Free Pick is on Northwestern
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Penn State is coming off a very strong 35-7 beat down of Illinois in a game where the final score could have been a far greater margin. Now, Penn State faces a ranked opponent. The Lions have not defeated a ranked opponent at home since Michigan State in 2008 and are 0-4 in home games versus ranked opponents since that win.
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This is the major reason I like Northwestern to win this game convincingly. They rank ninth in the nation averaging 250.5 rushing yards per game, sixth averaging 51 rushing plays per game, and 26th rushing the ball 58% of all plays run. The first two stats are impressive, but normally would expect a similar ranking in the run percentage category. This reflects that they are a more balanced team than other run dominated teams.
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Based on the physicality of the Northwestern offensive line alone, I do not see how the undersized Penn State defensive front will hold up over the course of the game. Penn State has some impressive run defense numbers, but those reflect an opponent attacking their suspect secondary.
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The simulator shows a high probability that Northwestern will win this game by four or more points. It further shows a high probability that Penn State will allow 150 to 200 rushing yards in this game. IN past games, Penn State is 0-1 ATS this season, 1-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-35 ATS since 1992. Moreover, Northwestern defense will contain the PSU ground game to between 3.5 and 4.0 yards per carry. In past games, PSU is just 1-7 ATS the past three seasons and 8-23 ATS since 1992.
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Here is a supporting money line system that has posted a 75-27 record for 74% winners and has made 62 units per one unit wagered averaging a +120 dog play since 2002. Play on a road team using the money line with an strong offense offense averaging 450 or more total yards per game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. This system has already posted an impressive 8-2 record making 11.1 units per one unit wagered this season.
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Here is a second system that has produced an impeccable record of 30-9 for 77% winners and has made 25 units per one unit wagered averaging a +112 dog play since 2002. Play on a road team using the money line after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game and in a game between two teams with five or less defensive starters returning. This system has gone a perfect 8-0 making 9.0 units per one unit wagered over the past five seasons.
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Although Northwestern defeated Indiana 44-29 and covered as 11 ? point favorites, they had three turnovers and forced just one Indiana turnover. However, Northwestern is a very strong 20-5 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
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Northwestern is a perfect 5-0 and ranked No. 24 in the nation and just has too much fire power on both sides of the ball for Penn State to overcome. Take Northwestern for a 5* graded play.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Hurricanes +14
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Odds makers aren't sold on Miami because its defense has been horrendous. However, I'll gladly take the points here as the Hurricanes go up against a Notre Dame team that has been quiet offensively. I don't believe the Fighting Irish, who rank 97th in the country with 351.2 yards per game, are explosive enough on offense to cover this hefty number.
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The Notre Dame defense has been spectacular, but it is yet to see an offense as dynamic as the one it will see Saturday. Miami is averaging 472.6 yards and 35.6 points and it is doing most of its damage through the air. In fact, it ranks 15th in the nation with 328.4 passing yards per game. This is significant because the Irish have shown they can slow down the run, but they've yet to be really tested through the air by a QB like Stephen Morris, who has passed for 1,002 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 2 games. Coach Al Golden has turned Morris loose, and that could spell trouble for Notre Dame.
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With as explosive as Miami is offensively, no lead is safe for Notre Dame. Catching this many points, it also gives us a solid backdoor opportunity with the Hurricanes if they get behind.
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The Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record.
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Also, teams coached by Golden are 9-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. His teams have only lost by an average of 4.7 points in these games. His Miami teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 points or more per game. They have actually defeated these foes by an average score of 28.6 to 24.0. Take the points.
Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU vs. FloridaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: FloridaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU went from averaging 48.3 PPG vs. North Texas, Washington, and Idaho to averaging 25 PPG against Auburn and Towson. The Tigers played sloppy LW in their 38-22 win over Towson, fumbling five times and losing three of those fumbles. QB, Mettenberger was also sacked 4 times. Since losing OL, Faulk in Week 1, the offensive unit hasn't been the same. In comes Florida and their physical and fast stop unit. The Gators will get to Mettenberger and slow down RB, Hilliard. UF has the 10th ranked scoring defense in the nation as they have held Bowling Green. A&M, Tennessee, and Kentucky all to 20 points or less. QB, Driskel has a 69.6% CR and 698 YP while RB, Gillislee has 402 TR and 5 TDs. Playing at home, getting points…tells me to take Florida.
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Oregon -24FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Off a huge win over Stanford last Thursday, I look for the Washington Huskies to let down Saturday as they travel to Eugene to take on the explosive Oregon Ducks. The Ducks have won three straight games by 25 or more points, and I look for that trend to continue Saturday.
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In their lone road game this season, the Huskies lost 3-41 at LSU as a 22.5-point underdog. I fully expect the Ducks to put a similar beat down on Washington here, which has been a common theme in this series.
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Oregon has won eight straight meetings with Washington by 17 or more points while going 7-0-1 ATS in the process. In their last two home meetings, the Ducks won by finals of 53-16 and 44-10. This simply has not been a good match-up for the Huskies in recent years because they simply do not have the athleticism to match the Ducks.
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This play falls into a system that is 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet Oregon Saturday.
Chip ChirimbesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. Stanford
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Last time out we had Washington to upend the Cardinal and they did but it was obvious who the better team was but, they just didn't win. WE DID! Now, Stanford is rested and about to host disappointing Arizona who let 'us' down last week against Oregon State. It think it's a bad spot for the Wildcats and the Cardinal will be ready and mistake free.