Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on Ohio State over Nebraska.
Talk about revenge... the Buckeyes had a 3-touchdown lead in the third quarter last year in Lincoln before Braxton Miller got hurt. Enter Joe Bauserman and enter the worst come-from-behind win the Buckeyes have ever given up.
Nebraska comes into this game ranked 21st in the nation despite a loss to UCLA a few weeks ago. Overall they're 4-1 but 1-0 in Big 10 Conference play after last week's impressive come-from-behind win over Wisconsin... much like last year's win over Ohio State.
Taylor Martinez is clearly the key to this offense and threw for 181 yards and had 2 touchdowns in that win over Wisky. The only way Martinez is going to be able to establish his run game is if he can throw effectively. OSU has been known to be a bit porous, so if Martinez can establish that early, it might be a long night for the Buckeyes.
OSU is ranked #12 in the nation with a 5-0 overall record... and enters off a less-than-impressive win over Michigan State. No disrespect, but MSU lost badly to Notre Dame and exposed the secret to beating them.
Their offense runs around Braxton Miller, so it's pretty ovbious that if he's on, the Buckeys are on... and vice versa is true as well.
Expect a lot of fireworks, but in the end the Buckeyes win by a TD.
2♦ OHIO STATE
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is currently at 17-8, and Saturday I look to improve with North Carolina laying the points at home against Virginia Tech in ACC action. I don't know what happened to coach Frank Beamer's troops, but after seeing them lose to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and being purged from the national rankings, there's no doubt this is a team with serious weaknesses on both sides of the ball. And that's not going to cut it against a North Carolina team looking to earn its first Atlantic Coast Conference win.
Amazingly, something I didn't realize, Virginia Tech is 13-0 in regular-season games in the state of North Carolina and hasn't lost to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill since 1938. But today, in catching 5-1/2 points, the Hokies are in big trouble and will not only see that 74-year old streak come to an end, but will lose badly.
North Carolina coach Larry Fedora has his fast-paced Tar Heels offense buzzing about, as it's averaging more than 43 points and 477 total yards per game. And there's not just an offense to speak of, as the defense comes in after recording its second shutout of the season.
And even though this is a huge test for UNC, in facing a big-game program that has won six of eight Coastal Division titles, I like my chances with this rejuvenated program.
The goal, one would think, is to use their bruising rushing game to control the clock and keep the ball out of Virginia Tech's hands, but get this, 19 of North Carolina's 34 scoring drives this season have taken 2 minutes or less.
In UNC's three wins, its scoring margin is an average of 49.6 points per game. The losses - both on the road - were by a total of 6 points, losing by one at Wake Forest and five at Louisville.
Want balance? UNC ranks 12th in scoring with 43.2 points per game, while ranking 19th in holding teams to 14.6 points per game. UNC ranks 32nd overall with more than 475 yards per game, while ranking 16th in the country with a defense that limits foes to less than 300 yards per game. The passing offense is 23rd best in the country, with more than 300 yards via the air; the passing D stifles teams to just 200 yards per game, ranking 33rd in the nation.
None of that bodes well for Virginia Tech, which has the 85th-ranked offense in the nation, and has been vividly inconsistent this thus far.
Lay the points as the Tar Heels make a statement to the ACC and themselves with a huge win and cover.
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Chris Jordan
Let's take a look at my free winner for Saturday, as I take you to Colorado Springs for the Armed Forces showdown between the Navy Midshipmen and Air Force Falcons. Admittedly, I started the week thinking the Falcons would be a great play; instead, I'm playing the Under with a pair of run-happy offenses on the field.
And this has nothing to do with the fact it's kicking off a tad-bit earlier than normal early games start - here in Vegas it begins at 8:30 a.m. - after all, during basic training these guys are up at 4:15 a.m.
No, the thought process is that when the nation's No. 1 rushing offense and No. 24 rush attack are on the field, the clock will be running right along with these teams. Air Force brings the nation's best ground game into this game, averaging 396 yards per game. Navy, meanwhile, tallies 219 yards per contest.
Conversely speaking, the Middies have the 117th scoring offense with just 14.5 points per game, having scored more than 10 points just once this season. And though Air Force's scoring offense is 27th in the land, with 37 points per game, the Middies have done a respectable job in allowing just 24.7 points per game.
This should be a physical game, too, as last year's game ended in controversy and a 35-34 Air Force overtime win in Annapolis, Md. And when you're talking about the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, these teams - no matter how good or bad each team is - take pride filling the trophy case. The trophy goes to the military academy with the best record in round-robin competition between Air Force, Navy and Army.
Right now, Air Force has the trophy. And it's been either Air Force or Navy taking home the trophy over the past 15 years, shutting out Army since 1996.
Now I know Air Force has seen a slew of Over trends improve since last season, but Navy is in on Under runs of 5-0 against non-Independent teams, 5-1 on the road, 10-3 when playing on grass and 6-1 overall.
And in this series, the under has come in six of the last eight meetings and four of the last five in Colorado Springs.
2♦ UNDER 54
Harry Bondi
Virginia Tech +6
Virginia Tech comes in with a disappointing 3-2 record, but Frank Beamer and his team are not panicking. They realize that they are still 1-0 in ACC play and very much alive for another Coastal Division title and a bid for a BCS Bowl Game, if they take care of business beginning today in conference play. Simply put, North Carolina does not deserve to be a six-point chalk here. This line is a overreaction to the Hokies' recent struggles. The Tar Heels are a team that is still getting used to the personnel and scheme changes that have been made by new head coach Larry Fedora. Two of their three wins have comes against cupcakes Elon and Idaho, with the losses coming to Louisville and a bad Wake Forest team. Virginia Tech is desperate for a win, they've got the better defense and they're getting almost a TD head start. Take the generous points.
OC Dooley
Southern Mississippi +10
In recent years these two programs have been among the best in the “non” BCS category, which makes taking the generous points from the oddsmakers enticing. It is easy to see why Boise State has been cast as a prohibitive road favorite as Southern Mississippi (0-4) is coming off the school’s first winless month of September dating all the way back to 1976. But the Golden Eagles who are adjusting to a new coaching staff showed promise in September’s final outing as they successfully covered the spread in a close 21-17 tussle against then #19 ranked Louisville. All four of their opponents during the opening month including Nebraska and East Carolina are all Division I-A programs, so today’s home underdog has been tested as opposed to scheduling “cupcakes” to build team confidence. Of course Boise State is no longer garnering national attention due to serious graduation losses that including the exit of four-year star quarterback Kellen Moore. The Broncos come into this contest having failed to cover consecutive contests and last Saturday they barely survived on the road against lowly New Mexico (32-29 final score) who the prior campaign had lost 11 of 12 games. As mentioned at the top of this analysis both sides have enjoyed recent “non” BCS success and today marks just the third all-time meeting, with the last encounter being way back in 2008
Rocketman
North Texas @ Houston
Play: Houston -11
North Texas travels to Houston to take on the Cougars on Saturday night. Houston is putting up big offensive numbers again this year averaging 503.8 yards per game overall this season. North Texas is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Houston is 7-1 ATS last 3 years against a team with a losing record. Houston beat North Texas 48-23 last year and I'm expecting a similar whipping this year. North Texas is 7-17 ATS last 24 games after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game. North Texas is 4-15 ATS last 19 games after a SU win. North Texas is 1-4 ATS last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. Houston is 7-1 ATS last 8 games after a SU win. Houston is 13-3 ATS last 16 games against a team with a losing record. Houston is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after an ATS win. I'm expecting this to be Houston's best performance of the season here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Houston!
Charlie Scott
Northwestern vs. Penn State
Play: Northwestern
Everyone knows the Hell Penn St Players & Coaches have been through the last Year. Looking to fade Penn St as a Favorite vs an undefeated NorthWestern Team that can score points on offense and has a quality, experienced Head Coach that has been through the Big 10 Wars.
Tony Stoffo
Hawaii vs. San Diego State
Play: Hawaii
Hawaii has been crushed in it's games so far this season - however I have to say here that they have played some great defenses against USC and BYU. And against Nevada the weakest defense they have faced this season that did manage to score 24 points. For today they will be facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 86th in the nation in total yards allowed, 112th in passing yards allowed, and 93rd in points allowed. So I can see the Warriors putting up a good number on the scoreboard here. So with the odds makers being forced to post this ridiculous high number here to try and get some Hawaii money - makes for a highly recommended play on Hawaii here today. Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Ray Monohan
Washington State vs. Oregon State
Play: Washington State
Last week at Century Link field in Seattle the Cougars played a great first half of football against the Ducks, the second half was terrible but Mike Leach can tell his team they hung with a national title contender now at least. The Cougs are No. 3 in the Pac-12 in passing, but their problem is they just can't run the ball. Last in rushing and have a minus-3 turnover margin. The OSU Beavers ranked 17th in the nation are turning heads this year on the west coast. Their leader sophomore QB Sean Mannion, has the No. 4 passing offense in the nation, but they only average 25 ppg good for 82nd in the country. They also have the worst pass D in the Pac 12. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Beavers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. I'm not calling for the outright win here but 15.5 points is to large a spread. Connor Halliday and Marquess Wilson will do enough damage to keep this one close. WSU will play a great game on the road for Leach and stay in it till the end in this one.
Game of the Week - Duke (-1.5) *5Units
Service Plays
Ohio St (-3) *3 Units
Boston College (-7) *3 Units
La Tech (-27) * 2 Units
Upset Game of the Week - Vanderbilt (+230) *1
-Fo Bros
MLB Predictions
Athletics / Tigers Under 7.5
The Oakland Athletics have home field advantage in the series, as the first two games will be played in Detroit. The Tigers finished the season with a 88-74 record, while the Athletics won the AL West with a 94-68 record. Oakland is 44-37 on the road, while Detroit is a solid 50-31 at home. Tonight we see Jarrod Parker on the mound for Oakland who is 13-8 on the season with a 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .248 opponents batting average. He faced Detroit once this season at home where he went 5.2 innings giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs. That start came on May 13th. Tigers ace and potential Cy Young winner Justin Verlander will be on the mound to start the all important Game 1 of this ALDS. Verlander went 17-8 this year with a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .217 opponents batting average. At home his numbers were even better with a 9-2 record, stellar 1.65 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and .187 opponents batting average. Over his last 4 starts he went 4-0 with a 0.64 ERA. He has faced Oakland twice this season. In Oakland on May 13th he actually faced Parker and went 7 innings giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run in a 3-1 Tigers victory. He then pitched against the A's on September 19th at home where he also got a victory going 6 innings scattering 5 hits and allowing 0 earned runs. In his career against Oakland he is 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA. Take note that the UNDER is 5-1 in Parker's lsat 6 starts overall, 5-2 in his last 7 starts as an underdog, and 9-3 in his last 12 starts with 4 days rest. The UNDER is 25-12-1 in Verlander's last 38 home starts vs a team with a winning record, and 14-5-1 in his last 20 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Despite seeing these two teams playing some higher scoring games this year, this is the playoffs and we have two solid pitchers on the mound tonight. These two faced each other earlier this year and we saw a total of 4 runs scored. Oakland has scored a combined 3 runs in the 2 games that Verlander has started in. If Parker can limit the damage done by Cabrera and Fielder this should be a very low scoring affair, and I like the value on the UNDER.