Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 8

Detroit at Texas
The Tigers look to build on their 13-3 record in Justin Verlander's last 16 road starts. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115)

Game 901-902: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.070; Texas (Wilson) 15.029
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over

NHL

Ottawa at Toronto
The Senators look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Ottawa is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+145)

Game 1-2: NY Rangers vs. Anaheim (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.421; Anaheim 11.009
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110); Under

Game 3-4: Buffalo at Los Angeles (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.780; Los Angeles 12.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-110); Over

Game 5-6: Ottawa at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.559; Toronto 10.361
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+145); Over

Game 7-8: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.978; Boston 12.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under

Game 9-10: Philadelphia at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.982; New Jersey 12.001
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105); Under

Game 11-12: Carolina at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.714; Washington 10.575
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+165); Over

Game 13-14: Florida at NY Islanders (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.037; NY Islanders 10.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Over

Game 15-16: Nashville at St. Louis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.713; St. Louis 12.504
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 17-18: Columbus at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.977; Minnesota 10.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+125); Under

Game 19-20: Dallas at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.691; Chicago 12.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-185); Over

Game 21-22: Detroit at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.766; Colorado 11.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Under

Game 23-24: Pittsburgh at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.925; Calgary 11.339
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Over

Game 25-26: Phoenix at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.286; San Jose 11.782
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Under

Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: Alabama over Vanderbilt

Our early season forecast in College Football had Alabama (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) as the SEC and BCS Champion as Nick Saban has our interest once again this season. Hopefully, you had a substantial interest last week in the ‘Bama 38-10 derailing of Gators down in the SWAP. This time around our favorites take on the Commies. The Tide is running rough shod over Vanderbilt at 43-2 SU in the series. The last time these units met was in 2007 when Alabama finished 7-6 SU, Vanderbilt hung tough, but fell eventually 24-10 as a three-point UNDERDOG. In 2011 Vanderbilt (3-1) has defeated ELON, UConn and Ole Miss, losing only to South Carolina 21-3. In the SEC encounter with the Gamecocks the Commies offense was stymied gaining only 77 net yards, 4 on the ground. This is the key to the Alabama since the Tide is ranked #3 in total defense allowing only 191.6 yards per game. Vandy is #82 in scoring offense, that should pretty much tell you about the fundamental statistical advantages for the Tide. Granted the Commies are 9-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back roadies and 5 of 6 ATS at Alabama, but I have more faith in the Tuscaloosa site and Little Nicky. Vandy brought back 19 starters from last season, but the legend shows just 7 SU wins since 2009. So, the experience in road settings helps Vanderbilt, but OVERALL contending with a focused, driven squad like Alabama is simply too much considering QB Larry Smith (Vanderbilt)is banged up. ALABAMA 42 VANDERBILT 7

Vegas Experts

Air Force at Notre Dame

This looks like an overlay, no? The Irish have won three straight, but covering a spread this large could prove challenging against the nation's 3rd leading rushing offense that just upset Navy on the road last Saturday. Notre Dame has yet to really face a team that can rush the ball effectively and is 5-14 ATS its last 19 games in which it was a favorite. That includes 2-8 ATS in South Bend. They are also 0-4 ATS the last four times they have played the Academy.

Play on: Air Force

Sam Martin

Florida at LSU
Play: LSU

We faded the Gators on Saturday night in their big loss to Alabama and we were prepared to fade them again this week against LSU, but the injury to Florida's starting quarterback means this line has changed drastically. We still like LSU here, though, as Florida showed it can't do much offensively when they can't run the ball. And while the Gators were held to just 15 rushing yards total against the Crimson Tide, now they face an LSU defense that many consider the best in the country - especially against the run where they have held every opponent to under 100 yards. When Florida can't run, Florida can't score, and that's enough to warrant a play on the home side!

Hollywood Sports

San Jose St. at BYU
Prediction: BYU

The Spartans (2-3) are riding high after their 38-31 upset victory at Colorado State last week. For the first time since October of 2008, the San Jose State football team has won two games in a row. San Jose State was likely to be improved this season with eighteen starters coming back from their 1-12 team last year. They have settled quarterback position as Matt Faulkner completed 25 of 38 passes for 313 yards against the Rams. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 15 road games as an underdog of more than ten points, the Spartans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of these games. They now travel to face a BYU team (3-2) that will likely be making a change at quarterback. Riley Nelson completed 10 of 14 passes for 144 yards and two touchdown passes to lead the Cougars to a 27-24 comeback win over Utah State last Friday. BYU has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory. And they will have the benefit of playing their fourth straight game at home. Take the Cougars.

Scott Spreitzer

Miami Florida vs Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week and dropped 10 spots in the AP Top-25. Va Tech played well on defense, but the team couldn’t overcome a couple of big turnovers. This week, they’ll welcome an offensively-challenged Miami team to Blacksburg. The Hurricanes aren’t even a tropical storm, ranked 82nd in total yardage, including 88th in passing offense, and they’re 62nd in points scored per game. Again, the defense didn’t play badly at all last week. They head into Saturday with the nation’s 4th best defense overall, including 2nd against the run. Va Tech gets right back on track on Saturday. I’m laying the points.

Bryan Power

Air Force @ Notre Dame
PICK: Air Force +15.5

The Irish have been rolling the L3 wks as it's amazing what can happen when you don't turn the ball over five times per game. They have gained 500+ yds in three games already this season, but this week vs. Air Force is a classic overlay with a public team. The AFA just upset Navy 35-34 in a game that really had no business even going to OT as the Flyboys led 28-10 with 10 minutes remaining. The Falcons have also covered their L4 trips to South Bend, including an outright win here in '07 41-24 when ND was in the Irish were in the midst of their worst season ever. Notre Dame is just 4-4 SU the last eight times it has hosted a non-BCS school and remember they also lost outright in the season opener to USF. The home team has struggled in previous meetings between these two schools, losing five of the last six meetings SU. I just can't trust the Irish laying this big of a number yet, given their turnovers and propensity for miscues. Lest we forget that Notre Dame is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite L3 seasons and that includes 2-8 vs. the number here in South Bend. They are also 5-15 ATS here vs. .600 or better opposition. 6* on Air Force.

The wise Guys

Florida State at Wake Forest
PLAY: Wake Forest 13

Expect for nothing less from Wake Forest than to attack Florida State through the air. The Seminoles will do much of the same early Saturday. In fact FSU might put the ball in the air more than the Demon Deacons.

FSU leads the conference with an average of 328 yards passing. Wake Forest (3-1, 2-0) is right behind, averaging 314 yards, and there will not be a shortage of points in this ACC matchup.

"We go into every game feeling like we need to run the football, and I'm sure Florida State has the same feeling," Demon Deacons coach Jim Grobe said Tuesday. "But I think you just have a tendency to do what you can do in each game, and if throwing the ball's the way to get it done, that's just what you've got to hang your hat on. That's what's been good to Florida State, and that's what's been good to us up to this point."

Consider that the Seminoles have completed passing plays of at least 50 yards in all four games they've played - the only real question is which Seminoles quarterback Wake Forest will face.

E.J. Manuel, who injured his nonthrowing shoulder in a loss to then-No. 1 Oklahoma, said that he expects to play this week, but coach Jimbo Fisher has declined to say if Manuel or redshirt freshman Clint Trickett will start.

The Demon Deacons say they're preparing for both talented signal callers, and each figures to test them in different ways. Trickett threw for 336 yards in his only college start, a 35-30 loss at Clemson two weeks ago and leads the ACC with a passer rating of 182.6.

Wake Forest stop unit can't get to the passer, managing only three sacks in four games - and while Florida State is the ACC's toughest team to throw against, allowing opponents an average of just 174.5 yards Wake will have little choice but to air it out.

Not only is their value on an underrated Wake team, the Total in this contest could exceed the current number by halftime.

Make an investment on the Dog and the Over in this ACC showdown. All The Deacons have to do is score 19 points in the contest and you can't lose both wagers.

Wake Forest +13 and OVER the Total of 50

The Prez

Troy at UL Lafayette
PLAY: Troy -6.5

Troy's stats look ugly at first glance, however, digging deeper into whom they have played and points allowed compared to yards by opponent including some skewed drive charts offers us substantial value in this Saturday College Football contest. While Troy has allowed a large number of points, playing Clemson, Arkansas and MTSU is the primary culprit. While the Troy defense has allowed an average of 40-plus points per game this season they have done a good job of turning good competition over and LA Lafayette is 0-6 ATS in home games when they commit 2 turnovers-plus per game over the last 3 seasons.

Troy's current player personnel and their non-conference schedule once again make them favorites in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have talented sophomore QB Corey Robinson (3,726 pass yds, 28 TD) under center and Chip Reeves (515 rec yds, 5 TD) has stepped up to replace WR Jerrel Jurniga.

Lafayette was a dismal 3-9 a year ago and while they are on a four game winning streak they have founds ways to sneak by a bad Kent State team, no-name Nicholls St and they should have lost their last two games against Florida Int and Florida Atlantic. They don't match up well against an aggressive Troy offense and the final score won't be close on Saturday

It has been a cash cow on the College gridiron to play against home underdogs with a winning percentage of .80% or better that are coming off 2 straight wins against conference opponents when the oddmsakers place them as a 3.5 to 10 point puppy. The trend is a stellar 30-5 (86%) over the last 5 seasons and is 1-0 this year.

Matt Fargo

Army @ Miami Ohio
Pick: Miami Ohio +2.5

This is the prime example of a wrong team being favored. Yes, Miami-Ohio is 0-4 on the season but as far as winless teams go, the RedHawks are not the worst. They won 10 games last season after going 1-11 the season before and I do not expect a complete reversal once again. Miami-Ohio played Missouri very tough in its season opener, lost at Minnesota by just six points, lost to Bowling Green despite getting outgained by only two yards and lost against rival Cincinnati last week. That is not a bad way to be winless.

Army is 2-3 on the season following its blowout win last week at home against Tulane. It was the third time in three home games that the Black Knights won the yardage battle, with two of those games resulting in victories. However they have been especially bad on the road, going 0-2 and losing the yardage battle both times and quite bad to be frank. The games at Northern Illinois and Ball St. were well in the books when Army put up garbage points and garbage yards to inflate its production.

Defensively, Miami has been pretty solid, currently ranked 44th overall as it brought back nine starters form last year when it ranked 28th in total defense. Its defensive effort against Missouri in the season opener is looking more and more impressive as each week passes. The Tigers last three opponents, Arizona St., Western Illinois and Oklahoma, have yielded averages of 44.7 ppg (Miami gave up 17 points) and 556 ypg (Miami allowed 291 yards). Army will be running the ball all day so there are no surprises.

Miami was shutout at home for the first time since 1983 but it is safe to say it won't happen again this week. The offense is no doubt struggling, especially on the ground where it is averaging a paltry 49.0 ypg on 1.6 ypc. The good news is that Army is allowing 167.4 ypg on 5.0 ypc and its undersized defensive front will have problems here. The RedHawks have a sizeable weight advantage along the line and they will finally get the edge in the trenches that they need.

Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game while Army is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after allowing fewer than 20 points in its previous game which means we should see some offensive output from the RedHawks. The Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up victory but the real problem is with this line as they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. 3* (332) Miami Ohio RedHawks

Marc Lawrence

Boston College at Clemson
Prediction: Boston College

At first glance it appears we have another underachieving double-digit dog taking on a 5-0 Homecoming 'Fat Cat'. But we have no problem fading the Tigers as they have cracked the Top 10 in both the AP and Coaches Polls. In fact, the Dabo Swinney's troops are the first team in ACC history to defeat three ranked opponents in successive weeks. And while we're well aware of Clemmie's 5-1 ATS log with conference revenge, we're also tuned in to their 1-6 ATS mark as favorites of more than 17 points. Yes, from a SU standpoint, the elevators are heading in opposite directions this afternoon in Clemson but BC has owned the series between these two (5-2-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, including 2-1-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in Death Valley) and is a competitive 8-2 ATS as dogs of 17 or more points. Toss in a 5-1 ATS log in Game Six and we have a serious dog taking on a prohibitive favorite in a serious letdown role. A solid take. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston College.

Jack Jones

Arkansas State -2

There's no question in my mind that Arkansas State is the superior team in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown with Louisiana-Monroe. They have a proven quarterback and a high-powered offense that has kept this team competitive all season.

Arkansas State (3-2) suffered their only two losses at Illinois and at Virginia Tech, but they covered the spread in both games and were never really out of either of those contests. Ryan Aplin is perhaps the best quarterback in the Sun Belt. Aplin is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 1,385 yards with five touchdowns on the season.

The Red Wolves have a balanced offense that can beat you on the ground or through the air. They have rushed for 230-plus yards twice, and they have also thrown for 375-plus yards two times this year. On the season, Arkansas State is averaging 29.6 points and 464 total yards/game.

Defensively, the Red Wolves are only giving up 21.6 points and 340 yards/game which is impressive given the schedule they've played. LA Monroe is only scoring 17.2 points and averaging 327 total yards/game, while giving up 31.0 points and 345 yards/game en route to a 1-3 start. They have played a difficult schedule as well, but they haven't even been competitive in any of their three losses.

Arkansas State beat LA Monroe 34-20 last year while outgaining the Warhawks 474-391. Aplin went 20 of 32 for 243 yards with one touchdown and no picks, while also rushing for 75 yards and a score. He rushed for 477 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and he has 142 yards and a score on the ground so far this season. He has three big-time playmakers at receiver in Dwayne Frampton (34 receptions, 459 yards, two TD), Josh Jarboe (28, 388, two TD) and Taylor Stockemer (18, 305, one TD).

The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS on the season, 5-2 ATS in thier last 7 games as a favorite, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. LA Monroe is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye. Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

James Patrick Sports

Kentucky vs. South Carolina

Huge revenge game for South Carolina as the UK Wildcats (31-28) win at Lexington, KY last season broke a 10-game series win streak for South Carolina and ended HC Steve Spurrier's personal 17-game win skein vs. UK. The Gamecocks are loaded for a return trip to the SEC title game with (7) offensive starters returning. The school’s top three offensive players all return in RB Marcus Lattimore (4.8 YPC, 1,609 total yards, 19 TD), WR Alshon Jeffery (88 rec, 1,517 yds, 9 TD) and QB Stephen Garcia (3,059 pass yds, 20 TD, 14 INT). The Gamecocks have excelled at home in Steve Spurrier’s six seasons, going (17-9) ATS as a favorite at Williams-Brice Stadium. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday complimentary selection is on South Carolina Gamecocks.

EZWINNERS

LSU Tigers -13.5

This is a very tough spot for the Gators as they travel to Death Valley to take on LSU. The schedule makers didn't do the Gators any favors this year by scheduling them back to back against against Alabama and LSU. Last week Florida was destroyed by the Crimson Tide at home in The Swamp in a very physical game that has this Florida team beat up. The Gators lost their starting quarterback John Brantley to an ankle injury in that game and he will not play in this game against the Tigers. That leaves freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel to make his first start on the road against the number one team in the nation. The Alabama defense gave Driskel all kinds of problems last week and the LSU defense is just as good if not better than the Tides defensive unit. Alabama running back Trent Richardson was too much for the Florida defense to handle last week and the Tigers will look to take advantage of the beat up Gator defensive line and linebackers with the one, two punch of running backs Michael Ford and Spencer Ware. This one should get ugly for the Gators as Florida is just 2-6-1 against the spread versus teams with a winning record. Lay the points.