Dave Price
1 Unit on Oklahoma Sooners -10.5
Look for Oklahoma to flex its muscles against an inferior Texas team Saturday. I really believe Texas is overrated. Iowa State moved the ball on Texas well last week. That game would have been a whole lot tighter had the Cyclones not made so many costly mistakes. Oklahoma won't be as generous. The Sooners will also be a big step up in competition for the Longhorns. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is battle-tested with a pair of games under their belt against quality foes Florida State and Mizzou. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. We'll lay the points.
Tom Stryker
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play: Ohio -8½
If Ohio University truly wants to compete for the MAC crown this season, Bobcats head Coach Frank Solich knows his kids must win games like this one on Saturday.
Ohio has played well in this series posting a 5-2 SU and ATS mark in the last seven meetings and has quietly won and covered two straight. The Bobcats will face a Buffalo squad that is really struggling right now. In their last 16 battles, the Bulls have manufactured a woeful 2-14 SU and 3-12 ATS record including just 2-10 SU and 1-10 ATS in this set checking in off a straight up loss (0-6 ATS at home).
MAC play has been kind to Coach Solich’s troops too. In conference action, Ohio owns a profitable 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS record in its last 20 games including a nearly perfect 9-1 SU and ATS record in this set provided the Bobcats are lined up against a foe that checks in off two or more straight up losses. If the Cats are favored by -5 or more in this situation, this team trend hits perfection at 8-0 SU and ATS!
The Bulls enter this conference war off a pair of SU and ATS losses at home to Connecticut and on the road at Tennessee. Buffalo’s offense was anemic in both games accounting for just a field-goal against the Huskies and 10 points versus the Vols. Matched up against an Ohio defense that is currently ranked second in the MAC allowing an average of 16.4 points and 287.6 yards per game, Buffalo doesn’t stand a chance especially with its one-dimensional offense. UB sophomore running back Branden Oliver is all the Bulls got and there is no way he’ll find room to roam against a Cats “D” that allows an average of 105.0 yards rushing per game!
Under the direction of Coach Solich, the Bobcats have never started a season 5-1. That’s about to change. Frank owns a 38-14 SU record in the month of October and he has his troops playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. Take Ohio U!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +4
With a bye week to prepare, I like the Hawkeyes catching better than a field goal against a Penn State squad that has really struggled offensively. Plus, Iowa's dominance in this series can't be overlooked. Iowa has won the last 3 meetings and 8 of the last 9 in this series. In addition, Iowa is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. It's defeating these opponents by an average score of 25.7 to 18.8. The Hawkeyes are also 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take Iowa and the points.
West Capper
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Getting Justin Verlander at -115 is just a steal. Yes Texas is a great home team and rested, but Verlander is Verlander and the Tigers love left handed pitching. Verlander and CJ Wilson only threw against the other teams once this year, but I like the Tigers to steal game one. Like I said before, I don’t think Verlander will lose this postseason.
CJ Wilson is a great pitcher in his own right, and is well rested for this game, but he struggled at home this season, posting a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average over .025 higher than on the road. He was very good in the second half (2.56 ERA post all-star break), but he’s going against the most dominant pitcher in the big leagues.
I would normally make this a larger play because the Verlander value is incredible, but Delmon Young being out hurts, and Peralta and Victor Martinez have struggled historically against Wilson. I do think Verlander will shut down Hamilton and the Rangers explosive bats, but one thing that worries me is that while Verlander dominates just about everyone, he is slightly better against lefties and the Rangers are very right handed heavy.
One knock on Verlander is he has to control his emotions when he pitches. He just got finished throwing in the biggest game of his life at home against the Yankees, so I think the environment in Arlington won’t cause him to overthrow like he did last game. While the 100+ mph radar gun readings were impressive to watch in the 6th and 7th inning, Verlander is really at his best when his fastball is down in the zone and 95-98 mph.
We will be taking 1* unit on the Tigers (-115) and 1* unit on the under 8 runs.
Jack Clayton
Troy at UL Lafayette
Pick:Troy
Troy (2-2 SU/1-3 ATS) is a powerhouse Sun Belt team that has a brutal schedule, opening at Clemson (43-19 loss) and at Arkansas (38-28 loss). They’ve won 6 straight Sun Belt titles and Coach Larry Blakeney runs a wide-open offense that averages 28 points, 326 yards passing. They return sophomore Corey Robinson (7 TDs, 4 INTs) who was dynamite as a freshman (28 TDs), plus top-rusher junior Shawn Southward. They gave Arkansas all it could handle, a 38-28 game as Robinson finished 36 of 63 passing for 373 yards. The Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in October, while the Ragin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS their last 6 home games. Play Troy.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes +10.5
Motivated by last week's three-point loss to Michigan State, expect the Buckeyes to take the Huskers down to the wire Saturday evening. Nebraska will be up for this one as well after getting thumped by Wisconsin, but it doesn't have the passing attack to pull off the cover here. While the Ohio State offense has struggled, the defense is still top notch. The Buckeyes rank 11th in the nation with 14.6 points allowed per game. They rank 13th in total defense with 285.2 yards allowed per contest. Ohio State has especially been stingy against the run, giving up just 93.6 yards per game on the ground and holding 4 of its 5 opponents to 76 rushing yards or less. The Buckeyes will force Nebraska to beat them through the air, and I don't think Taylor Martinez will be able to make enough plays with his right arm to cover this number. Nebraska ranks just 104th in the country with 168.4 passing yards per game. Ohio State is an impressive 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games versus excellent rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. Also, the Cornhuskers are a poor 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more. We'll bet the Buckeyes.
Steve Merril
Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +7
Rutgers has had one game circled since last season, and it’s this home game against Pittsburgh. In their meeting last season at Pittsburgh, the Scarlet Knights went into the locker room tied with the Panthers at 14. But Rutgers did absolutely nothing in the second half as they were out-gained by more than 200 yards and out-scored 27-7 in a 41-21 loss. That result sent Rutgers into a tailspin as they lost their final five games of the season. Head coach Greg Schiano has focused on that game at Pittsburgh as the reason for the collapse in 2010, and the team has vowed to avenge that bitter memory. The Scarlet Knights come into this game with some tremendous momentum after winning back-to-back games against Ohio and Syracuse. Last week’s win at Syracuse came in overtime, and the fact that Rutgers is now a home underdog off a road underdog win presents a terrific situational spot in taking the points. Schiano played two quarterbacks in last week’s win; Gary Nova came on in relief of Chas Dodd and he brought the team back from a double digit deficit to get them to 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the season. Rutgers has struggled to run the ball this season (76 yards per game on 2.1 yards per rush), but their passing game has been good (250 yards per game on 7.2 yards per pass). And that is a key match-up edge for Rutgers here because Pittsburgh has struggled mightily on defense this year; ranked 96th allowing 415 yards per game. They’ve especially struggled against the pass where they rank 107th in the nation in giving up 290 yards per game through the air. Look for Mohamed Sanu (43 receptions on 10 yards per catch) to have a field day against the weak secondary of the Panthers. Also note that offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti is now calling plays for Rutgers after being Pitt’s OC the last two seasons. He should know how to find the holes in Pittsburgh’s defense. Pittsburgh’s strength on offense is their running game which is led by Ray Graham. But Rutgers’ defense has been fantastic against the run allowing just 83 yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush. This game will be a chess match, especially inside the red zone. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 10th nationally in red zone success while the Scarlet Knights’ defense is 6th in the nation allowing opponents to score just 6 times with only 4 touchdowns in ten red zone trips. Rutgers is also tied for tops in the nation in turnovers gained with 18 and they rank 4th in the nation with 3.5 sacks per game. Pittsburgh is off a big spotlight win over South Florida which has inflated this line a couple of points. The Panthers are overvalued in this spot so we’ll take the generous points with the home underdog.
TEDDY COVERS
Oklahoma @ Texas
PICK: Under 56.5
Aftter another winning Sunday (Texans, Patriots) and a Monday Night cash with the Over, Teddy's NFL is now on a 21-12 (63%) hot streak. And Teddy nailed Western Kentucky's outright TV upset as 11 point dogs in NCAA action on Thursday! Don't miss a single guaranteed football winner this weekend!
Where do the points come from in this matchup? Texas is utilizing a pair of young QB’s; Caser McCoy and David Ash. McCoy and Ash have performed well in two previous outings against UCLA and Iowa State, but Oklahoma’s defense is a very different animal than those two subpar stop units. Expect a conservative gameplan from Major Applewhite here – lots of handoffs to Malcolm Brown and Fozzy Whittaker, and very few downfield passing attempts. The Sooners have held three of their four opponents to 14 points or less thanks to a truly elite level stop unit.
But we shouldn’t expect the Sooners to light up the scoreboard here either. In their lone previous test against a quality defense, Oklahoma was shut down for most of the game at Florida State. If it wasn’t for two absolutely insane catches by Kenny Stills in that game, the Sooners would have been held to a single touchdown. The Sooners have been held to 28 points or less in four of the last five meetings against Texas. Look for this year’s Red River Rivalry to be a relatively low scoring ballgame. Take the Under.
Steve Janus
Ohio State +11.5
Nebraska has done nothing so far this season to warrant being this big of a favorite against Ohio State. Every team in the Big Ten have been waiting for their opportunity to welcome the Cornhuskers into the conference. Ohio State doesn't have the offense that it has had in years past, but they are going up against a very overrated Nebraska defense that is ranked 61st in the country in total defense. Nebraska is giving up 152.8 ypg on the ground and another 224.2 ypg through the air. Ohio State's offense will be able to make enough plays offensively to put points on the board.
What a lot of people seem to be overlooking in this game is how well the Buckeyes have played on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State is 22nd against the run, giving up just 93.6 ypg and are 30th against the pass, allowing just 191.6 ypg. If Ohio State can take away Nebraska's running game and force Taylor Martinez to throw the football, the Buckeyes have a legit shot at winning this game.
Ohio State is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. BET THE BUCKEYES!
Jim Feist
TCU vs. San Diego St
Play: Over 56½
TCU (3-2 SU/1-3 ATS) isn’t that same old dominant defensive team we’ve been used to. The defense hasn’t been as sharp, allowing 31 ppg. Sophomore QB Casey Paschall (12 TDs, 2 INTs) has been good along with the ground game behind junior RBs Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley, averaging 42 points, 200 yards rushing and 230 passing. However, the defense allowed 50 points in the opener, a 50-48 loss at Baylor, and 40 in Saturday’s 40-33 OT home loss to SMU. They were outgained 461-454, allowing 349 yards passing, so this secondary is suspect. San Diego State (3-1) has a wide-open spread offense behind senior QB Ryan Lindley (8 TDs, 1 INT) along with sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman, sophomore tight end Gavin Escobar. The Aztecs average 30 points and 196 yards rushing. Lindley has thrown touchdown passes in 14 straight games, but his lone interception broke a string of 112 pass attempts without one. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and this will, too. Play San Diego State/TCU Over the total.
Larry Ness
TCU vs San Diego State
Pick: San Diego State
TCU was supposedly headed to the Big East but now it looks as if the Horned Frogs will be staying “at home” and joining the Big 12. Gary Patterson, who took over for Dennis Franchione prior to the 2000 season, has built some football program in Forth Worth over the last 10 years, going 98-28 overall (including eight, 10-win or more seasons) and leading the Horned Frogs to 10 consecutive bowl appearances. His reign reached a high point in 2010, as the Horned Frogs went 13-0 (school record for wins), including winning 21-19 in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin, becoming the first-ever non-automatically qualifying school to make back-to-back BCS Bowl appearances. It completed a three-year run in which TCU went 36-3, averaging 33.6, 38.3 and 41.6 PPG from 2008-10, while allowing 11.3, 12.8 and 12.0 PPG. However, it became evident right away that things were not going to be the same in 2011. Baylor’s Robert Griffin III passed for 359 yards with five TDs against TCU in its season opener (September 2), as the Bears won 50-48 while gaining an almost unheard of 564 yards vs the famed TCU defense (just five starters had returned). TCU did win three straight after that but two wins came over La-Monroe and Portland St while the third was against Air Force, which gained 416 yards (249 on the ground). Note that TCU had allowed 100, 80 and 47 YPG rushing the last three years. Then last Saturday, TCU lost at home to SMU 40-33 in OT, allowing more than 400 yards on defense for the THIRD time in five games (461), including 359 in the air. As for the Aztecs, they began the campaign with three straight wins against Cal Poly, Army and Washington State. However, on September 24 the team traveled to Ann Arbor to meet former head coach Brady Hoke’s Michigan Wolverines, losing 28-7. Despite the setback, don’t count out SDSU just yet in the MWC race. The Aztecs can make a HUGE statement here with a win over TCU, which has won all six previous meetings between the schools. The Aztecs knew Hoke was well familiar with their team but Hillman (1,532 yards / 5.8 YPC / 17 TDs last year) still managed 109 yards on 21 carries, giving him 100-plus yards in all four games this year (ranks 2nd in the nation with 152.5 YPG / 6.2 YPC / 8 TDs). QB Ryan Lindley (3,830 yards, 28 TDs / 14 INTs in 2010) connected on 23-of-48 passes for 253 yards and a TD. He’s completing just 51.5% this year for an average of just 218.8 YPG but has eight TDs against just one INT (130 attempts). Considering the TCU defense has allowed Griffin (Baylor) and McDermott (SMU) to each throw for 359 yards this year, Lindley could have his first “big game” of the 2011 season, right here. Let’s remember, against a defense which allowed just 12.0 PPG and and 228 YPG last season, the Aztecs scored 35 points (Lindley had 262 yards passing) in a five-point loss at Fort Worth. Why can’t the Aztecs score here at home vs this year’s vulnerable TCU defense? After all, the Aztecs scored an average of 36.6 PPG at home last season (includes Poinsettia Bowl played in QUALCOMM Stadium) and in two home dates this season, have scored 49 and 42 points, albeit vs Cal Poly and Washington St. However, let’s remember, this is NOT the TCU defense of the past three years (or last decade, for that matter!). Take the home dog.
Rocketman
Louisville @ North Carolina
Play On: Louisville +14
Louisville is 12-2 ATS since 1992 against ACC opponents. Louisville is allowing only 16.7 points per game overall this year and 17 points per game on the road this season. Louisville is 6-1 ATS last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Louisville is 5-1 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog. Louisville is 32-13 ATS last 45 non-conference games. North Carolina is 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite of 10 1/2 or more points. North Carolina is 0-4 ATS last 4 games after an ATS win. We'll recommend a small play on Louisville today!
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Wyoming +11 over UTAH STATE: The Cowboys are 3-1 and Utah State is 1-3 yet the Cowboys are still DD dogs in this one. The Aggies have been solid on both sides of this year as they come in ranked 22 in total offense and 29th in total defense. They are 88th in scoring defense as they have allowed 30.2 ppg and of the 121 points they have allowed overall, 53 of those points have come in the 4th quarter or OT, and it has been those last game collapses that have led to their 1-3 start. Today the Aggies will take on a Wyoming school that has a 3-1 record, but 2 of those win were vs FCS for and the other one was on the road vs Bowling Green. No matter who they played though I still felt coming into the year that the Cowboys would not be all that bad, especially with 7 starters back on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys have struggled on the defensive side this year But their offense has been very good, and very balanced as they are averaging 241 ypg through the air and 202 ypg on the ground. The Aggies have the better defense, but Wyoming has the more balanced offense and the better special teams, plus with the way the Aggies have folded in the 4th quarter that gives the possibility of a backdoor cover as well. I don't think the backdoor cover will be needed as I expect the Cowboys to win this one outright. KEY TRENDS--- Wyoming is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs and 5-0 ATS with rest vs a non-conf opponent.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Louisville/ North Carolina Under 48: The OU is 3-9 in Louisville's last 12 in October, while the OU is 1-7 in Carolina's last 8 home games and 1-6 in their last 7 October games. The Cards are a team that really plays it close to the vest and it really shows by the fact that all 4 of their games have failed to put more than 41 points on the board. The Cards come into this game 105th in scoring at 18.8 ppg, while they are 86th in total offense (360.2 ypg). That is some bad offense, but their defense has really made up for their short comings. The Cardinal defense has allowed just 16.8 ppg (21st), while they are also 24th in total defense, allowing just 307 ypg. The Tarheels have a so0lid running game that puts up 179 ypg, but will be facing a Louisville defense that has allowed just 85 ypg on the ground. The Tarheels do have a good offense that has put up 31.4 ppg, but this will be the best defense they have faced so far. The Carolina defense hasn't been that bad and they have been able to shut down the bad offenses they have face this year. Georgia Tech is one of the top offense in the country and the heels did allow 35 points to them, but in their other 4 games this Heels defense has allowed just 17.3 ppg. The Louisville offense is not explosive and can be stopped, while their own defense should be able to hold down this solid Heels offense. I do not expect more than 41 points in this one.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan: Sorry Michigan, but the party's over. The Wolverines will take to the road for the first time this year and they have gone just 2-11 ATS in their first road game of the year and they are just 2-15 ATS in their last 17 vs the Big 10, while the Cats have gone 8-4 ATS the last 12 in the series. Last week Northwestern got QB Dan Persa back and he hit 71% of his passes with 4 TD's and no INT's, as they were able to put up 35 points vs a good Illinois defense. Now Dan, who many feel is the best overall QB in the Big 10, has had another week of practice to get ready for a Michigan defense that I feell has played over their heads so far this year. The Wolverines have allowed just 10.2 ppg (2nd in nation) so far, but in their only game vs a team with any offense (Notre Dame) they allowed the Irish to put up 31 points and 513 yards. Yes Michigan will score in this one, but I feel that the Persa led Cats will score just a bit more as they win this game outright and hand Michigan their first loss of the year. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Michigan is just 2-18-1 ATS from game 6 on out the last 3 years, including going 0-14 ATS when they are not dogs of more than 4 points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Texas +10 over Oklahoma: Boy I've been looking at this game hard and the way the forum looks, it seems like I'm going against a lot of you, but I feel that the Longhorns have a shot at keeping this one close. The Dog has gone 13-81 ATS, while the Sooners have gone 3-8 ATS vs undefeated teams from game 5 on out, plus the Longhorns are 10-0 ATS as conference road dogs off a SU win. Texas has been a mission team this year and have already payed back UCLA and Iowa State from losses they suffered last year and the beat those two teams by 26 ppg. Sure the Sooners are the top ranked team in the nation and they have one of the best offense around, but their defense has holes as it comes in ranked 59th vs the pass and 50th vs the run. The Longhorns have a solid edge there as they come in ranking 17th vs the pass and 34th vs the run, while putting up an overall defensive ranking of 15th, allowing just 289 ypg. The Rushing numbers are really key here as the team that has won the rushing battle has won the game the last 12 years and that's another edge for Texas. The Longhorns come in averaging 206 ypg (25th) and the Sooners are 50th vs the run allowing 129 ypg, while on the other side we see that the Sooners are just 44th in rushing at 177.2 ypg, while the Texas defense checks in at 34th, allowing 110.8 ypg. It's close but Texas does get the edge there. Overall the Sooners do have the better offense, but I feel that this Texas defense can slow them down enough for their offense to do some damage vs a Sooner defense that just isn't worthy of a team that's ranked #1 in the country. This will not be a blowout as the longhorns keep it close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any undefeated road or neutral fav from game 5 on out if they are off a DD ATS win and are facing an .800 or better opponent that allows less than 18 ppg if they are off a win. This Angle has gone 22-3-1 since 1980.
Ohio State /Nebraska Under 44.5: Defense, Defense. This game just has defense written all over it. Sure Nebraska's defense has been less than stellar this year as they come in ranked 64th overall (377 ypg) and 73rd in points allowed (27.2 ppg), but this is not a strong offense that they will be facing tonight. The Buckeye's come in ranked 108th in total offense (308.2 ypg), 111th in passing (154 ypg) and 91st in scoring (23.8 ppg). Even a beat Husker's defense can stop this group. On offense we know the huskers can't pass, as they are 103rd in that category (168 ypg) with Taylor Martinez hitting just 50.5 % of his passes with 4 TD's and 5 INT's. Nebraska's only means of travel seems to be on the ground where they have piled up 250 ypg thus far, but that plays right into the hands of a Buckeye's defense that has allowed just 93.6 ypg and 3.2 ypc. I don't see many big plays by the Husker offense in this one,and when they score it will be long time consuming drives, while on the other side I don't see ANY big plays from this pathetic OSU offense that is still missing some key parts. Look for no more than 35 in this one.
SAN DIEGO STATE +4.5 over TCU: The last 3 years the Horned Frogs had compiled a nifty 36-3 SU mark and their defense had held opponents to just 239 ypg over that stretch. Boy how the times have changed as they enter this game 89th in total defense (410 ypg), 101st in passing defense (268 y7pg) and 77th in points allowed (27.6 ppg). Definitely not TCU like numbers. Now they face an Aztec offense with a good QB in Ryan Lindley and the nation's #2 leading rusher in Ronnie Hillman, who also has all 8 of SDSU's rushing TD's. Look for the running game to have TCU defenders creeping up near the line of scrimmage, which will allow Lindley to pick apart this porous TCU pass defense. The Atztec defense is nothing special and they can be run on, but they do bring the 9th rated pass defense into this one and they also have allowed a respectable 23 ppg. San Diego State is off a bad loss to Michigan, but they have had a week of rest to get ready for this one and they are 8-1 ATS as dogs of 3 or more with rest and they have gone 9-2 ATS as conference dogs of 10 or less. TCU has won all 6 of the meetings between these teams and the last time they were here they won 55-12, so with this possibly being the last times these teams meet I will look for a spirited home team to get the win over a TCU that just doesn't seem right this year.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Boston College +21 over CLEMSON: I really see a let down here, I mean how can the Tigers get up for a 1-4 team after facing and beating FSU, Auburn and Virginia Tech the last 3 weeks. Boston College maybe be just 1-4 on the year, but they have only been outscored by 3 ppg so far. The Eagles are 8-2 ATS as dogs of 17 or more, while the Tigers are 1-6 ATS as favs of more than 17, plus the dog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 in the series, with 5 outright upsets thrown in there. Look for BC to lose, but by no more than 14 points as the Tiger will just no go full tilt in this one.
Penn State/ Iowa under 45.5: The Hawkeys have put up 37.8 ppg on the year, but one pof their foes was an FCS opponent, another was a Sun Belt Opponent and they has a 3 OT game vs Iowa State, so that ppg average is a bit misleading. This will be the first real defense they have faced so far and PSU's 5th ranked defense will not allow them 30 points in this one, or even 20 points for that matter. PSU's offense is one of the worst in the country and a suspect Iowa defense should hold them down here. Lion games have averaged just 35 ppg on the year, while the last 6 meetings between these teams have averaged just 31.5 ppg, plus we also note that the OU is 5-20 when Iowa plays a road game on grass. I see about 35 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
BAYLOR -14.5 over Iowa State: RG3 has been simply awesome for the Bears this year, but last week he threw a late INT, which eventually cost them the game. I look for him to bounce back in a big way vs Iowa State today. Let's also note that the Host is 7-1 ATS the last 8 in the series. Bears roar here.
Ben Burns
Air Force @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame
I respect Air Force. In fact, I cashed a *10 ticket on the Falcons on Saturday afternoon, in their 35-34 OT victory at Navy. That said, they're up against a very talented opponent here. Off that thrilling road win vs. their arch-rival & with a big conference home game vs. San Diego State on deck, I feel this may prove to be a prime "letdown" spot. That's particularly true with that game vs. the Aztecs coming on a Thursday.
The Irish, who get a bye after this, are starting to really roll. After eking out a road win at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, they traveled to Purdue & crushed the Boilermakers by a score of 38-10. They outgained Purdue by a 551-276 margin, in terms of total yards. That was already the third time that this potent offense has eclipsed the 500-yard mark.
Not only did the Irish dominate on both the ground and through the air but they also finally played "mistake-free" football. (Notre Dame committed 15 turnovers in its first four games, but none against Purdue.)
I had a big play on the Irish (*10 "Personal Favorite) in their last home game. They came through for me in that game, crushing Michigan State by a score of 31-13. While they're laying a much larger number here, another "blowout" won't surprise. Consider laying the points.
SEAN MURPHY
Syracuse @ Tulane
PICK: Syracuse -10
The Tulane football program is going nowhere fast.
Of course, all we're concerned about is pointspread success. On that note, the Green Wave haven't enjoyed a winning season from an ATS perspective since the 2004 season.
Not surprisingly, Tulane is off to another slow start here in 2011, going 1-4 ATS through its first five games.
Syracuse will be eager to take out its frustrations at the Superdome, after suffering a tough overtime loss at home against Rutgers last Saturday. The Orange will also be looking to make amends for a no-show in their lone previous road game, at USC back in September.
Syracuse had plenty of success on the road last season, going 5-1 SU and ATS.
The Tulane offense has been moving backwards ever since their 49-10 rout of UAB three games ago. Now the Green Wave run into a quality Syracuse defense that has held the opposition to just 2.8 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass play this season.
This has the makings of a big-time mismatch between the Orange offense and the Green Wave defense. Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib remains one of the most underrated signal-callers in the nation, completing over 66% of his passes for 1,108 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions this season. He'll be able to take advantage of a Tulane 'd' that has allowed opponents to gain 8.2 yards per pass play over their last three games.
Tulane's home field advantage at the Superdome has been non-existent in recent years. The Green Wave have posted a 10-27-1 ATS record in their last 38 lined games here at home. That's not to mention the fact that they're 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. Take Syracuse (5*).