Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 9,2010

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose St. at NevadaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: NevadaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nevada buried the Spartans in San Jose State last year by a 62-7 score by gaining 517 rushing yards on a 8.8 YPC average. A year later and now in Reno, the undefeated Wolf Pack will put another beating on a San Jose State that ranks 86th in the nation in rushing defense. Nevada's pistol offense can lead to blowouts against teams lacking the personnel to stop it. Their 526.4 total YPG average ranks 5th in the country. Looking for style-points and averaging 44.6 PPG against a solid schedule, Nevada is unlikely to take the foot off the gas. The Spartans just cannot keep up as they possess the worst offense in the FBS (9.8 PPG and 248.6 YPG both rank 120th). Nevada's defense looks improved this season as they are holding their opponents to 20 PPG. After two emotionally-charged road games against BYU and UNLV, Nevada returns home to put a big number up on an over-matched San Jose State. Lay the points with Nevada.

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Alabama at South Carolina
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The "Ol' ball coach" had it right when he said that Arkansas had their chance to beat Alabama and let it slip away. But the Crimson Tide did make the adjustments on defense and must be given credit for it. And in order to take advantage of Alabama's one "weakness," the secondary, a team must have a top notch QB who can deliver strikes to his receivers, while playing under control. Arkansas had that for the most part in future pro, Ryan Mallet. Although Stephen Garcia has improved, he's still no Ryan Mallet. While Garcia's numbers aren't too shabby overall, he does have one glaring weakness. He looks for one particular receiver much too often. Alshon Jeffery averages over 124 yards receiving per game. But no other player on the South Carolina offense averages more than 28.5 per game. That's simply not going to get it done. As good as Jeffery is, keying on one receiver will likely lead to a couple of picks by the well-coached Bama secondary. I also don't like the fact that SC ran for just 2.8 yards per carry last week, while allowing Auburn to run up and down the field, with Newton and Dyer rushing for 276 combined yards on almost 6 yards per pop. I don't see SC running well against the stout Bama down linemen and linebackers, while the Tide's outstanding RB duo should continue to flourish. Alabama does not make crucial mistakes. Garcia and the Gamecocks do. Garcia had two costly fumbles last week. When freshman backup Connor Shaw came in, he threw a pair of picks inside Auburn territory late in the game. Garcia is a mediocre signal caller, and Spurrier has no real proven talent to step in for him. I believe Alabama will feast on the SC offense, leading to another win and cover for the nation's top-ranked team, whether WR Julio Jones (questionable) plays or not. I'm laying the points with Alabama on Saturday.

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Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We like Arkansas to cover in this match up. Remember, the game is being played in Cowboys Stadium, so home field advantage will not play a role in this one. Both the Aggies and Razorbacks have a number of great athletes that are both lengthy and physical. However, Arkansas has a glaring advantage when it comes to team speed, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and Ryan Mallet does a great job of getting the ball in to the hands of his playmakers. Texas A&M is talented enough to be able to hang in this game early. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson and the Aggie receivers are very good and will be able to make some plays. This should be a high scoring affair, with touchdowns being of much abundance, therefore, making 5 points a very, small margin to win by. In the end, Arkansas’ offense may be a little too much for A&M to slow down. All in all, the Razorbacks have too many advantages going their way. They will be led by arguably the best quarterback in the nation, in Mallet and their teams speed will play a big part in the game too. Added to all of what was previously said, the Razorbacks will be coming fresh off a bye and Bobby Petrino will have his team more than ready to play this Saturday.

The PrezFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State Cowboys at UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Play: Oklahoma State Cowboys -24
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Once a week at SBR I write a column about possible letdown games where you should take the big underdog against a favorite that’s probably going to be caught looking ahead or is coming off a big, draining win. And at first glance, Friday night’s Oklahoma State at Louisiana-Lafayette matchup looks like one of those, with the Cowboys currently at -24.
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After all, OSU enters off a highly emotional 38-35 home victory over Texas A&M in the Big 12 opener last Thursday. The Cowboys rallied from a 14-point halftime deficit only to take a 14-point lead early in the fourth quarter – only to see the Aggies tie with just under three minutes remaining. The Pokes won it on a Dan Bailey a 40-yard field goal as time expired. There were turnovers in the see-saw battle. OSU's defense gave up 535 total yards, spent nearly 39 minutes of the game on the field and allowed Texas A&M to go 15-of-26 between third and fourth downs.
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"It was just a very emotional game that had a number of mistakes," Cowboys coach Mike Gundy said in an understatement.
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So OSU would seem to be primed having to now go out of conference and travel little Lafayette, La., and face a team that really isn’t even a Sun Belt contender in the Ragin’ Cajuns. Plus Oklahoma State has an important game at Texas Tech awaiting next week.
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Perhaps the Cowboys do start slow, but they will have no trouble covering the 24 points. OSU has one of the nation’s high-flying offenses, ranking second in points (52.3 per game) and passing yards behind the stellar combo of QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon. UL-Lafayette is No. 108 in points allowed and has yet to allow fewer than 24. It allowed 55 to a mediocre Georgia team missing A.J. Green and two other key offensive players in the opener. OSU, which has five scoring drives of less than a minute this season, should go up and down the field at will.
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If there is one concern, the Cowboys are very young, with 14 true freshmen playing so far — more than all but four other teams nationally. And this will be the Cowboys’ first game on the road in 2010. Plus OSU will be just the second ranked team to visit Cajun Field, so the fans will be pumped. The last ranked team to visit was a Big 12 club as the Cajuns beat No. 25 Texas A&M, 29-22, back in 1996. And Kansas State, although unranked, did lose their last year.
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Oklahoma State is 22-2 all-time against members of the Sun Belt Conference and 5-2 ATS as a road favorite of at least 10.5. The Cowboys got their 22nd win earlier this season with a 41-38 victory over a Troy that looked tremendous in crushing preseason Sun Belt favorite Middle Tennessee on Tuesday. And that close call against the Trojans should be all the motivation Gundy needs to keep his guys focused.
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UL-Lafayette, which is 1-4 ATS in its past five non-conference games, can’t run the ball and has yet to score a point in the fourth quarter this season. That’s enough for OSU to win by at least 30.

Doug UpstoneFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Atlantic Owls vs. UL Monroe Warhawks
Play: Florida Atlantic Owls +3
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In this Sun Belt contest, Florida Atlantic and UL-Monroe are coming together after taking beatings from FBS schools. FAU was hammered 31-3 by South Florida and the Warhawks were out-manned by Auburn 52-3. The lack of scoring by both SBC teams leads us to a very specific college football system.
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Play Against home favorites like UL-Monroe after scoring 14 points or less in their last game, against opponent after they scored nine points or less in their last outing. This system is money-making 27-4 ATS.

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Buffaloes vs. Missouri Tigers
Play: Missouri Tigers -12½
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Colorado comes off an emotional 29-27 upset over Georgia last Saturday, but expecting a let down as they play at Missouri this weekend. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season and appears to be rounding into mid-season form after 51-13 victory over Miami (OH), marking the second time in their last 3 games which they score 50 points or more! This will only be Colorado's second road game this season, with their first road trip to California ending in an embarrassing 7-52 loss to the Golden Bears. Colorado's road troubles are nothing new, as they are now 0-7 SU & 3-4 ATS on the road since last season and have not won away from Colorado's Folsom Field since 2008. Missouri has won 4 straight meetings in this series, all by at least 15 points, including last year's meeting in Colorado, 36-17. Given their home field advantage and current explosive offense, we're laying the double digits with this home Favorite.

Chip ChirimbesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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USC Trojans +10FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If this game were to be played in an ally with no witnesses and no wagering I believe that Stanford could name the score and would win easily, but alas, it is not. Southern Cal fell to Washington in another one of those classic look-ahead contests (see Texas before Oklahoma) while Stanford blew a 21-3 lead at Oregon before getting shut-out 28-0 in the second half. USC has been favored in 33 of the 34 meetings and in their only roll as an underdog they won 10-0. The Trojans are 11-1-1 as a dog off a straight-up loss after being favored. The Cardinal a bit letdown after beating by Ducks...Take SOUTHERN CAL.

AccuScoreFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee +11 at Georgia
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Last week’s bizarre finish against LSU was a heartbreaker for Tennessee, but an easy win for those who took the 16.5 points. Vegas oddsmakers continue to disrespect Tennessee and are giving away a generous number for the second straight week. Despite losing to Florida and LSU, the Volunteers have showed a lot of fight and a strong defensive will. Getting 11-points is huge number and Tennessee is covering that number in 55.5% of our simulations. The Georgia Bulldogs are a tough sell to anyone and Mark Richt is on the hot seat. Most will tell you that now Georgia will focus, but the bottom line is they just don’t have the talent. A.J. Green is a superstar, but Colorado showed that Georgia does not have enough weapons around him to really make a big difference. Also note that AccuScore is 5-3 this season ATS in games involving Tennessee and Georgia.

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Virginia Tech –21.5 over Central Michigan
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It’s easy to write off Virginia Tech after their losses to Boise State and James Madison, but the Hokies are rounding into form. They are 2-0 in the ACC and finally starting to hit their stride. The storyline for me with last week’s victory at North Carolina State was the 41 points Virginia Tech scored. The game against Central Michigan is a great match-up stylistically for the Hokies. Two weeks ago, Central Michigan had all sorts of trouble with Northwestern, who features a mobile quarterback who often runs away from trouble (like Tyrod Taylor). While the score of that game was close, Central Michigan was dominated throughout and had no answer for the mobile Persa. AccuScore is 3-1 this season ATS in games Virginia Tech plays in and is hitting at 55% ATS in forecasts where the home team is favored by 14 or more points.

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Utah -6 @ Iowa St.
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Utah is a strong on-the-field performer as well as in the computers. The Utes are projected to win this game by 9 points by AccuScore simulations with a 55% chance to cover the 6 point line. Iowa State put up a shocking performance last week scoring 52 points against Texas Tech. But plenty of that had to with luck and sloppy play as the Red Raiders had three turnovers and allowed the Cyclones to score off an onside kick. One of Utah’s hallmarks under Kyle Wittingham has been sound, disciplined play. To beat the Utes you actually have to make plays rather than wait for mistakes. Despite losing 8 defensive starters, Utah has bounced back to rank 7th nationally in scoring defense and 17th in pass efficiency defense meaning their strengths match-up well with Austen Arnaud and the Iowa St. passing game. Not only that, Utah is 3-0 ATS this season, and AccuScore has picked against the line correctly in all three games as well.

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Oregon St. +7.5 @ Arizona
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The nation seems to have finally caught on to Arizona being a top team this season, but it seems to have forgotten that Oregon State plays it’s best football after September ends. You can see the evolution again this year as the Beavers stayed competitive with Boise and TCU despite a new quarterback in Ryan Katz. Katz struggled early, but he’s growing each week as evidenced by a 260 yard, 2 TD (0 INT) performance against a good Arizona State defense. The Beavers also get James Rodgers back this week from a concussion. This pick is less of a knock on Arizona as it is more of a faith in Oregon State, and his team’s ability to improve dramatically year after year. The extra half point on the line is the reason I like this pick. One key thing to watch will be when Arizona punts as the Wildcats rank 95th in the nation in net punting while Oregon State has one of the absolute best return men in Rodgers.

North Shore SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State -7½ over Illinois
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Penn State is 3-2, but losing on the road to Alabama and Iowa is certainly forgivable, The Nittany Lions are 3-0 at home, outscoring their opponent by +21.0 points per game while outgaining them by +166.0 yards per contest. Illinois is in a letdown situation after playing Ohio State tough last week, and they simply may not have much left in the tank while playing their first true road game of the year, with their only other game away from Champaign so far being a 10-point loss to Missouri in St. Louis.

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Michigan -4 over Michigan State
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It is tough to play against the Wolverines at this cheap price at home as long as Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson stays healthy. No one has been able to contain Robinson yet, as he has over 1000 passing yards on 10.5 yards per attempt and 905 rushing yards on an unheard of 9.2 yards per carry after only five games. It is doubtful that the Michigan State defense can do any better, and this is the first true road game for the Spartans this year, although they still have not left the state of Michigan this season.

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Alabama -6½ over South Carolina
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We all saw what happened to the Crimson Tide the last time they went on the road vs. an SEC opponent, as they trailed for most of the game in Arkansas before scoring late and escaping with the 24-20 win. They should bring their best effort straight from the get-go this time around to avoid putting themselves in that same position. South Carolina has come a long way under Steve Spurrier, but the Gamecocks did lose their toughest test so far at Auburn in their last game, and they now must deal with probably the best team in the country.

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Florida -6½ over LSU
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The Gators laid an egg in Tuscaloosa last week, but this is a team that has bounced back well after losses in recent years and they are facing an overrated LSU team this week that should have lost its first game last Saturday against a mediocre Tennessee team. Florida is far from mediocre, so the poor play the Tigers have gotten from their quarterbacks should prove fatal here, as 5.7 yards per pass attempt will not cut it vs. the Gators in the Swamp.

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Tennessee +11 over Georgia
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Tennessee may be in the lower half of the SEC in terms of talent, but they had LSU beaten last week and remember that they held the team with the best offense in the country, the Oregon Ducks, to just 13 points in the first half. They did a good job against Georgia’s star receiver A.J. Green last season in a surprisingly easy romp in Knoxville, and this Georgia team has now lost four straight games to move to 1-4 after a disappointing loss at Colorado last week. Furthermore, they lost that game despite Green’s return from suspension.

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Texas A&M +6 over Arkansas
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Both of these teams are 3-1, Texas A&M is averaging more points and more total yards per game, yet Arkansas is the ranked team getting all the publicity while the Aggies remain unranked. This is a big matchup for the Big 12 in terms of respect, as beating an SEC school is certainly good for prestige, and although this game is on a neutral field, Arlington is only a three hour drive away from College Station, TX. Add in the Razorbacks’ letdown factor after taking top-ranked Alabama down to the wire and you may want to shop for a Money Line on this one!

Sports InsightsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. Missouri
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After getting pounded by California, Colorado has bounced back with victories over Hawaii and Georgia in their previous two games. This week, they go on the road to take on #24 Missouri, who had no problems with Miami (OH) in their last game, running out to a 21-point first quarter lead in the 51-13 win.
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Missouri opened as a 13-point favorite at Olympic and is currently receiving 69% of spread wagers. However, the line has dropped to -11.5 at most market-setting sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. This reverse-line movement has triggered two Smart Money Plays on the Buffaloes, one each at Pinnacle (+10.33 units) and ABC (+5.91 units).
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While most books have Colorado at +11.5, there are a couple offering a full point more. So to kick off Week 6, we'll follow the Smart Money and take Colorado getting the extra point.
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Colorado +12.5

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Utah vs. Iowa State
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Undefeated Utah comes into this week's game after dominating San Jose State two weeks ago. The Utes were unstoppable on the ground, gaining 272 yards rushing in the 56-3 blowout. Iowa State is also coming off an impressive win, defeating conference-rival Texas Tech, 52-38.
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Utah opened as a 7.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving a staggering 84% of spread bets. Even with the public support, the line has dropped to -6 at most sportsbooks across the sports marketplace. This classic case of reverse-line movement is a key indicator that sharp money is coming down on Iowa State. Sports Insights' Betting Systems have also found value on the home-underdog, triggering Steam Moves at Pinnacle (+7 units) and Olympic (+7.5 units) on Iowa State.
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A scan of the sports marketplace shows most sportsbooks offering this game at +6, with one at +6.5. We'll go ahead, grab the extra .5 point and take Iowa State.
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Iowa State +6.5

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LSU vs. Florida
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LSU looked poised to lose its first game of the season last week. The Tigers had the ball, down four points, on the Tennessee 1-yard line when a mishandled snap looked to end any chances of an LSU victory. However, the Tennessee defense was flagged for having 13 players on field during the potential game-ending play, giving LSU one last shot at the end zone. On the ensuing play, Steven Ridley took a toss over the goal line for the game-winning touchdown.
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In one of the most highly-anticipated games of the week, Florida went to Alabama to prove they were still a contender for the SEC title in the post-Tebow era. It turns out they aren't. The Alabama defense was flat-out dominant, allowing only two Florida field goals while forcing four turnovers in the 31-6 dismantling of the Gators.
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Florida opened as a 7.5-point favorite at CRIS and is a significant public favorite. Even with last week's high-profile loss, 75% of spread bets have come down on the Gators. However, sharp money seems to be falling in the other direction, shrinking the line to -6. Sports Insights' Betting Systems have triggered five positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move, at 5Dimes (+9 units), on LSU.
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To wrap up Week 6, we'll fade a massive public favorite and take LSU, getting 6.5 points.
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LSU +6.5

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina +7
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Alabama is coming off a convincing win over Florida last weekend but it was not as convincing as the end result indicates. The final score showed a 31-6 win by the Tide but they actually were outgained by Florida and it was not due to garbage yards. Florida had opportunities that it could not capitalize on as it went into the redzone three times and came away with nothing as it was stopped on downs once and turned it over twice. This is not to say Alabama is overrated, just overpriced. South Carolina has had two weeks to think about what could have been. The Gamecocks are coming off a loss against Auburn, a game in which they had early control of before the Tigers stormed back at home. Playing a week after that tough loss could provide a hangover but two weeks, and the fact that Alabama is coming to town, is no problem for South Carolina to get back in the game. The Gamecocks were getting three points on the road in Auburn and now they are getting a touchdown at home. As mentioned, the failures of Florida in the redzone ended up being the ultimate difference in that game last weekend. The Alabama defense had some say in that but it was mostly the Gators offense that failed to get it done. South Carolina brings in a much different efficiency. The Gamecocks lead the SEC in redzone success as they have scored on all but one of 16 trips, including 13 touchdowns. That is a huge advantage against the nation’s top scoring defense and one that is strong inside the 20-yard line. Part of the success has been the play of quarterback Stephen Garcia who is often put down but no longer deserves that distinction. On the season, Garcia has completed 69.1 percent of his passes, putting him second in the SEC. He has a passing efficiency of 161.6, which puts him 4th in the SEC and 16th in the nation and while he is often seen in the doghouse, it is undeserved. He is the reason that the Gamecocks lead the conference in both third down conversions and time of possession. Alabama is certainly no slouch on offense and this is the game that running back Mark Ingram had his coming out party as he rushed for 246 yards. Now he has Trent Richardson behind him making this the best rushing combo in the country. The Gamecocks gameplan will be to slow them down early as they have only allowed 29 first half points and just two first half touchdowns. Like Alabama, the redzone defense is strong as South Carolina has allowed just a 62.5 percent conversion rate. The Gamecocks fall into a solid contrarian situation as well. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss going up against teams that have won four or more consecutive games. This situation is 79-33 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. South Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning record which makes a great case for the possible upset but being to stay well within this inflated number. 3* South Carolina Gamecocks

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Play: Purdue Boilermakers +9
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The Boilermakers have gotten off to a weak start with a 2-2 record including a straight up home loss to Toledo just two weeks ago. After less than impressive wins over Western Illinois and Ball State you know Danny Hope will have his team rested and focused off a bye last week. In fact, his banged up team received extended rest during this break, something that will help them this week against Northwestern. This is a young club that had 21 letterman lost in the offseason and the extra week of preparation will do wonders for team confidence.
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Northwestern is off back to back tight games against Central Michigan and Minnesota, two teams like Purdue who are down this year. The Wildcats were able to win both those games, in fact, they are now 5-0 on the season. But in retrospect they have played one of the weakest schedules in the nation. The best team they faced was likely Vanderbilt, a young team who lost their coach right before the opening game of the season against these Wildcats. Wins over Illinois State and Rice just aren't impressing us. This is a team that doesn't have the knock out mentality and it has surfaced the past two weeks.
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Northwestern is now 5-19 in the role of home favorite, including 1-8 in that role when facing conference opponents. Off a 5-0 start and knowing they have beaten Purdue each of the last two seasons the Wildcats could come into this game a bit full of themselves. Northwestern is overrated right now having played a very weak schedule and we take advantage with Purdue off a bye.

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3* on Purdue +9.5
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Reasons Purdue covers:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This is a 35-7 ATS System hitting 83.3% since 1992.
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2.) Northwestern may be 5-0, but three of those wins have come by 5 points or less. We cannot see them beating rival Purdue by more than a touchdown this Saturday. Northwestern is just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite. Bet Purdue on the road.

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona St. @ Washington
PICK: Arizona St. +2
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Washington and Steve Sarkisian are starting to make a name for themselves, once again, in the Pac-10 thanks to a second straight upset of USC. This on the heels of last year’s wins over Arizona and Cal. One team that is not impressed is Arizona State. Maybe the Huskies have sold their souls to the Sun Devils to beat the Trojans as Dennis Erickson’s crew is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in this series since 2002 and haven’t lost in Seattle since 1999. In addition, a natural letdown may be in order for the Huskies as teams who knock off the Trojans are just 11-25 SU and ATS, including 7-18 SU and ATS versus conference foes. Sarkisian’s bunch should have learned from this last season as they followed the USC win with a 20-point no-show loss at Stanford the following week. Despite Arizona State’s three straight losses, it’s doubtful that the Huskies will look past them with that brutal series mark staring directly at them. It might also be wise for Sarkisian to point out that the Sun Devils could have won all three games if not for a missed extra point at Wisconsin and costly turnovers against Oregon and Oregon State. ASU’s perfect 6-0 ATS mark after leaving the Beavers should have us feeling devilish but their ungodly 0-9-1 ATS record as road dogs off a road game has us looking to our other shoulder. In a game with just not a lot of wiggle room, we’ll look for history to repeat itself – in more ways than one. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona State.