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Utah St. @ Louisiana Tech
PICK: Louisiana Tech -1
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After suffering an embarrassing 41-7 loss at San Diego State two weeks ago, Utah State returned home to host Brigham Young in a season-defining moment for Gary Andersen's club. The Aggies responded by dominating the Cougars on both sides of the football to earn a 31-16 win in a prime-time game last Friday night. A quick start was key for Utah State and it was 31-3 by the 3rd quarter. However, the inconsistent Aggies must go back on the road where I expect them to suffer from a big emotional letdown after such an important win for their program. Utah St has already played tough at Norman (31-24 loss on Sep 4) plus a game with Fresno St at home on Sep 18 (lost 41-24) which some were calling the school's "biggest game." Throw in the BYU win and this is a lot of emotion spent by these Aggies, who have also suffered a number of injuries. Utah State scored 24 at Oklahoma but then just seven at SDSU, while the running game has gained almost 90 less yards per game on the ground at home. The defense has been awful in two road games, allowing 36.0 PPG along with an average of 458 total yards. The Aggies will be facing a desperate Louisiana Tech team which at 1-4, will be facing its own "season-defining" moment in this game. The Bulldogs were in Hawaii last week where they were taught a lesson in the spread offense, as the Warriors passed for an incredible 532 yards (while gaining 647 total yards), on the way to their 41-21 victory. Perhaps the Bulldogs learned a thing or two about operating their own spread offense though, as they have installed their own version of it after hiring offensive coordinator Tony Franklin from Texas Tech in the offseason. I look for a big passing game from Louisiana Tech in this contest, as BYU freshman QB Jake Heaps passed for 270 yards against this Utah State defense last week (Utah State's pass defense allows 289.5 passing YPG on the road). Louisiana Tech has been averaging 228 passing YPG so far this season against pretty good competition. After the school's opening game win against Grambling, the Bulldogs have played Texas A&M, Navy, Southern Mississippi and Hawaii, teams which are a combined 12-6 entering the week. Louisiana Tech has been the underdog in all four of those losses and I think it is telling that the line now lists them as a favorite in this contest. La Tech will have the additional incentive of seeking to avenge its 23-21 loss at Utah State last season. In the end, there a few things that concern me about Utah State coming into this game. Despite the Aggies' big effort last week, they still made plenty of mental mistakes that resulted in 12 penalties. This inconsistent club has failed to cover the point spread in five of its last seven games after covering the point spread in their previous game, which is not a good trait plus Utah St has the added dimension of coming off an emotional win, in this instance vs BYU. In addition, Utah State's best offensive linemen, Spencer Johnson, remains listed as questionable for this game with his ankle injury. His injury in the San Diego State game contributed to Utah State's complete offensive breakdown in that contest. Louisiana Tech retains a strong home field advantage where the Bulldogs have exceeded expectations and covered the point spread in NINE of 11 home games since the beginning of 2008. They are getting Utah State at JUST the right time to earn some payback and turn their season around.
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USC @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford -9.5
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There’s been a lot of talk about the USC revenge angle this week as the Trojans travel to Palo Alto to take on Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal. After all, Stanford thoroughly embarrassed USC on the Trojans home field last year, handing former head coach Pete Carroll his single worst home loss in his tenure with the team.
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The Cardinal’s physicality was too much for the Trojans to handle, and Stanford wasn’t shy about running up the score, even going for a two point conversion leading 48-21 in the fourth quarter. Stanford covered the spread by 44.5 points, winning big as 10.5 point underdogs.
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USC cornerback Shareece Wright, talking about the loss. “It shows the lack of respect that they had for us. That's all that is. A lack of respect for our team. You have to remember things like that. ”
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This year, the roles are reversed. Stanford is the big home favorite; USC is the revenge minded dog. But, as last week’s home loss to Washington clearly indicated, the 2010 Trojans are declining; a program headed in the wrong direction.
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Five players transferred this offseason, thanks to the NCAA’s two year postseason ban on the Trojans. Four players left early for the NFL draft. Two 2010 recruits were released from their commitment to the program. With injuries and attrition this fall, the Trojans have fewer than 70 scholarship players on the roster right now.
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Kiffin made it clear that his fan base has unrealistic expectations right now. “This is not your old 'SC.” He also said that it will take “probably a good five years, maybe six" until the program is restocked with the depth and talent they had before he got here.
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Wright agreed with his coach’s assessment. “It's a big difference from when we first came in to now. Everybody still expects us to throw teams out like we used to. We're not the same team we were five years ago. We have to accept that.”
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Stanford is coming off a tough loss of their own. Leading 21-3 at Oregon last Saturday Night, the Cardinal were stunned by the Ducks skill position speed, outscored 49-10 the rest of the way.
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Cardinal head coach Jim Harbaugh didn’t sound too worried about a potential hangover. “I think they were stung. It wasn't a good feeling, having lost the game, but they came back very focused. Probably had our best Monday practice since I've been around here.” 2* Take Stanford.
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Colorado @ Missouri
PICK: Missouri -11
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Don’t be fooled by Colorado’s 3-1 SU record. The Buffaloes own straight up wins over Colorado State, Hawaii and Georgia. Those three teams are a combined 5-10 SU this season. Instead, focus on two specific areas here that really make a difference: Missouri’s recent dominance in this series and CU’s struggles on the road.
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In the last four games between these two Big 12 foes, the Tigers have been in charge posting a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record. It should be noted that those four wins came by the combined score of 177-40. Colorado will be thumping its chest off its recent win over Georgia and saying that it has a bone to pick with Mizzou. Talk is cheap. The truth of the matter is the Buffs can’t play worth a lick on foreign soil. According to my college football database, CU is a disturbing 3-21 SU and 7-16-1 ATS as a guest including a shocking 2-11 SU and ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.
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Off their 51-13 blowout home win over Miami Ohio back on September 25th, the Tigers enjoyed a bye last Saturday and will come into this conference battle rested and well prepared. Offensively, Mizzou is a force averaging 37.8 points and 431.5 yards per game and this high-octane unit will do serious damage matched up against a Colorado defense that surrenders an average of 23.8 points and 337 yards per game. One has to wonder about the Buffaloes mental here too. In their one true road game this year at Cal, CU got smashed 52-7. If the Tigers can get a fast start, this one could be over early.
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Mizzou will be playing its fourth consecutive home game after posting victories over McNeese State, San Diego State and Miami Ohio. This will be the Tigers Big 12 lid-lifter, they’re focused, rested and ready to go. Tie that up with the tremendous home versus road dichotomy surrounding this Big 12 battle and you have all the support needed for this best bet. Take Missouri!
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Colorado St. @ Air Force
PICK: Air Force -24.5
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We cashed a ticket with Colorado State last week, albeit in excruciating fashion, as the Rams lost 27-0 to TCU, barely covering the 33.5-point spread.
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I'll switch gears this week, and fade the Rams as they try for their third consecutive ATS win.
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Air Force has actually dropped the cash in back-to-back games, but did win SU in both, 20-14 at Wyoming and 14-6 at home against Navy. The Falcons have outgained all five of their opponents this season, and should be able to control the line of scrimmage again on Saturday.
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This is quite simply a nightmarish matchup for the Colorado State defense. The Rams are giving up five yards per rush this season and now have to face a Falcons offense that is gaining over 373 yards per game on the ground on six ypr.
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This series has been dominated by Air Force, as the Falcons have taken four consecutive meetings dating back to 2006, with their last three wins coming in ATS fashion as well. Over the last three years, they've outscored Colorado State by a wide 117-54 margin, covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in those three victories.
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It's worth noting that Colorado State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 lined road games while Air Force is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 lined home contests against an opponent with a losing record.
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The Falcons are by no means a flashy team, but they've certainly posted their share of blowout wins. Since beating Colorado State on the road last Halloween, Air Force has gone 8-2 SU, with six of those wins coming by at least 18 points.
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We're asking for a little more than that on Saturday, but it should be well within reach against a Rams squad that got pounded by TCU seven days ago, and is ripe for a blowout once again. Take Air Force.
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Georgia -11 vs Tennessee
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We are laying the lead with the 1-4 overall & 0-3 SEC Georgia Dawgs as they grab the early spotlight. This "NCAAF" THROW DOWN Saturday will see the Oster traveling to Athens Georgia @ 12:20 eastern time! We have a pulse on the Georgia Dawgs & they had a great camp so far & Dawgs coach Mark Richt is getting his team ready to pound somebody!! They should have put away a Colorado Buff squad this past Saturday. The key here from JR O's camp is this will be the second game that all world receiver AJ Green will play. Last week he finished with seven catches for 119 yards and 2 scores. The return of Green will open up the running game! The line opened @ 10 and shot up to 11 right away as the sharps pounded this baby.
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The Vols check in here as a poor squad who gave the poor offensive LSU Tigers all they could handle last week. Tennessee ranks 90th in the country in total yards and 85th in points per ball game. Tennessee will not crank it up on the road as the Geo Dawgs hammer the Vols. They get out of the gate strong and keep scoring in the second half!!!..This baby gets ugly!!! Try these #'s on for size. Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog & the Dawgs check in @ 13-3 ATS after 2 consecutive losses. JR feels that good coaching and a under valued stellar program shines Saturday!!!
Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Power Angle Play--- MIAMI -6 over Florida State: Coming into the season I felt that the Canes would be the ones walking away with the ACC crown and I have seen nothing so far that would change my mind. Miami comes in off impressive road wins vs Pitt and Clemson, while FSU was pading their stats vs the Like of BYU, Wake Forest and Virginia. 3 teams that are just 2-8 vs fbs foes on the year. Miami and FSU both played top 10 teams on the road and while both lost Miami did only lose by 12 at Ohio State, while FSU was crushed by 30 at Oklahoma. FSU holds a slight offensive edge, while Miami has the defensive edge, but again FSU put their numbers up vs a much weaker schedule than the Canes. FSU is also 120th in the nation in Kick returns, while Miami is 22nd. The Canes have clearly played the tougher schedule and are glad to be home after a 3 game road trip. I look for Miami to show the rest of the ACC that this conference is theirs, with an impressive 10+ point win over the Noles here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 are an amazing 25-3 ATS off a conference road win if their opponent is off 2 consecutive conference wins.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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MTSU -3.5 over Troy: MTSU is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 October games, while the Favorite is 7-1 ATS the last 8 in series. Dwight Dasher is back for the Raiders and that upgrades their offense considerably. The Raiders offense comes in averaging 31 ppg, so it has been very good without him, but with hime they should put up about 38 ppg the rest of the way. Troy's offense has been good at a little over 32 ppg, but they will be taking on the the best defense the SBC has to offer in MTSU. We know that Troy can score, but they haven't been able to stop anyone, allowing 32.5 ppg and they are 111th in yards allowed and 117th in passing defense. Troy has won teh last 3 in the series by a 107-31 count, but with Dasher back vs a weak defense, the Raiders will get big time revenge here. They should win by 10+. Sad
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GEORGIA -11 over Tennessee: When this line came out i said what the hell and was ready to jump all over the Vos, but upon further review i have have gone the other way. Tennessee is in a rough spot, coming off a tough loss to LSU in which a 13 man on the field penalty cost them the game. Despite the 2 point loss they were still outgained by 217 yards and despite winning their previous game over UAB they were outgained by 257 yrds in that one. Yes the same UAB squad that was crushed by UCF last night. Georgia is just 1-4 on the year, but they did outgain their last 2 opponents and have desperation on their side here. The Dawgs do get a slight offensive edge, a big defensive edge and a huge special teams edge in this one, plus they are desperate for a win and have revenge on their mids after last years 26 point loss to the Vols. That's all just too much for this emotionally draind Tennessee to overcome. Dawgs by 17+ here.
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Tulsa +6.5 over SMU: The Golden Hurricanes are starting to play like a team that is seriousd about taking the conference USA Title after last weeks 48-7 destruction of Memphis. The Ponies do have a good offense behind June Jones but are sill ranked just 50th in total offense (400 ypg), while Tulsa comes in with the 8th ranked overall offense putting up 507 ypg and they are 12th in scoring at 39.8 ppg. The ponies defense has been good this year, but really strufggled in games with Texas Tech and TCU. 2 teams with very good offenses like Tulsa's. SMU also failed to cover games against weak opponents like Washington State and Rice and Tulsa is far better than those 2 teams. SMU is bad a s a favorite as they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in the role of a favorite, plus they are just 5-17 ATS at home vs teams allowing 31 ppg or more. Tulsa's offense is just to strong fopr SMU to contain and they will walk away with the outright win here.
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TOTAL OF THE WEEK--- San Diego State/ BYU Under 52: Sure SD State has a good offense putting up 38.3 ppg and 509 ypg and BYU's defense has been bad allowing 28.8 ppg and 433 ypg but I still see this one going under the total. BYU's defense is 101st overall but 28th against the pass and that is the strength of this SDSU squad. Byu should for teh Aztecs to run a little more which will chew up clock and keep their scoring down a bit. Now on the other side of the ball we find a horrid BYU offense that ranks 96th overall (312 ypg) and 114th in scoring (15.2 ppg), while the Aztecs defense is one of the better in the country allowing just 13.8 ppg and 296 ypg, so don't expect BYU to do much scoring. i just feel that the defenses will come to play in this one and keep the game in the low 40's at best.
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2 UNIT PLAYS
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6 Point Teaser--- Nebraska -4.5 & Under 54 Sad
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Florida Atlantic +3 over UL Monroe
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6 Point Teaser--- Eastern Michigan +32, Temple +9 & Notre Dame PK
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South Carolina +6.5 over Alabama-- Great spot for the Gamecocks as they are off a bye and catch Alabama off 2 tough SEC games. Could have a new number 1 after this one.
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6 Point Teaser--- UConn/ Rutgers Under 49, Rutgers +11 & Oklahoma State -17.5
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1 UNIT PLAYS
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6 Pt Teaser--- South Florida -5.5 & Under 54.5 Smile
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Army +1 over Tulane
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Southern Miss -8.5 over East Carolina
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Ohio State -21.5 over Indiana-- Ohio State is 18-4 ATS at home vs teams averaging 425> ypg
Dwayne Bryant
San Diego St at BYU
Bet Under 52
BYU is scoring just 15 points per game on the season, and allowing a respectable 22 points per game at home. They held the potent Nevada offense to 27 points. On the flip side, the Aztec's defense is allowing just 13.8 points per game. And even if we throw out their shutout of Nicholls State, they're still allowing only 18.3 points per contest. They should have no problem holding BYU's offense in check. I don't see BYU scoring more than 20, and I don't expect the Aztecs to score more than 27. That makes UNDER 52 a small action wager for me.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oregon State at Arizona
This is the time of year we start to look at playing against unbeaten College Football teams as the odds of them remaining perfect get slimmer with each passing week. Arizona probably is not worthy of its currently lofty ranking while Mike Riley's Oregon State team is much better than their 2-2 record would seem to indicate with both losses coming against top five competition. We love Riley's 16-4 ATS mark as an underdog + his team is a perfect 7-0 vs. the number coming off a home conference win.
Play on: Oregon State
Craig Trapp
Toledo vs. Boise State
Play: Over 57
Boise will score in the 50's and Toledo will be in the 20's. Boise needs an impressive win to say near the top of the polls. This Boise offense is averaging 45 so far and have played several much better defenses than Toledo. Toledo has scored even against some decent defenses so far so think this one is over by end of third quarter.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona State vs. Washington U
Play: Arizona State +1.5
Arizona St. qualifies in a solid system here tonight. What we want to do is play on road teams from +3 to -25 that are taking on an opponent who is off a road dog win at +10 or more in their last game. Washington is off a big dog win at USC and may very well be flat for this one here tonight. Arizona St has won the last 6 in the series and should be a live dog here tonight. Look for them to surprise Washington.
Jim Feist
Florida Atlantic at Louisiana Monroe
Play Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic (2-2 SU/1-2 ATS) has a very good passing attack for coach Howard Schnellenberger (2007 Sun Belt Coach of the Year). He still runs wide open, attacking offenses and the Owls average 24 points with the 35th ranked passing attack in the country with 245 yards per game (after striking for 280 passing per game in 2009). 6-foot-5 senior QB Jeff Vancamp (4 TDs, 3 picks) is very good on this balanced offense, with junior RB Alfred Morris.
UL Monroe (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has a new look for 2010 as Todd Berry takes over as coach. They are taking their lumps with freshman QB Kolton Browning (5 TDs, 4 INTs). In a 34-20 loss at Arkansas State, the defense allowed 474 yards (234 rushing). In an unimpressive 21-20 win over SE Louisiana, turning it over 3 times.
Mike Rose
Alabama at South Carolina
Play: Alabama -7
Last year’s battle between these SEC stalwarts saw the Crimson Tide rattle off a 20-6 win at home. The 14-point victory came up short of the 14-point closing pointspread.
While another low scorer could be in the cards, I just don’t see Alabama letting the Gamecocks off the hook in this spot. Saban’s kids already got themselves in a pickle in their first SEC road game at Arkansas; a game that saw them have to battle back from a 20-7 deficit late in the 3rd quarter just to pull out the non-covering road win. Look for them to be ready from the opening kick this time around.
With the Tide 9-3 ATS their L/12 on the road and 7-2 ATS the L/9 times they were installed road favorites, look for them to flex their muscles on both sides of the ball and do just enough to scratch out the road win and cover against the Cocks in their own house.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes -22.5
The Buckeyes struggled a little bit in their first road game of the season at Illinois last week. They struggled, and they still managed to win by 11 points. After hearing all week about how Oregon, who the Buckeyes handled in last season's Rose Bowl, should jump them in addition to Boise State in the polls, I look for Ohio State to make a statement with a lopsided win on their home field Saturday. The last time Indiana visited the Horseshoe, it was handed a 41-point beatdown. Since 1992, Ohio State has won 14 in a row over the Hoosiers by an average of 24 points. Its 6 home wins during this time frame have come by an average of 28 points. Indiana may have looked impressive offensively against Michigan last week, but I expect the Ohio State defense to take care of business Saturday. Lay the points with the Buckeyes.
Black Widow
1* on Oregon -36
Yes, this is a large spread, but the Oregon Ducks should have no problem covering it Saturday at Washington State. After all, Oregon is outscoring their opponents by 40.6 points/game this season while scoring 56.6 and allowing 15.0. We see no reason why they won't be able to top that average this weekend, especially considering how the Ducks have dominated the Cougars over the last few years. Oregon is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Washington State over the last 3 years, winning by 46 in 2007 (53-7), 49 in '08 (63-14), and 46 points in '09 (52-6). We don't see the Cougars stopping this explosive offense on any series, as we expect Oregon to score almost every time they touch the football. WSU is allowing 255 rushing yarsd/game and 6.5 yards/carry, while Oregon is rushing for 335 yards/game and 6.6 yards/carry. Take Oregon and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Purdue +9.5
Reasons Purdue covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This is a 35-7 ATS System hitting 83.3% since 1992.
2.) Northwestern may be 5-0, but three of those wins have come by 5 points or less. We cannot see them beating rival Purdue by more than a touchdown this Saturday. Northwestern is just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite. Bet Purdue on the road.