Dave Price
1 Unit on Michigan Wolverines -4.5
After back-to-back losses to Sparty, look for Michigan to finally have its revenge Saturday. Michigan State is yet to play a true road game this season, and that puts it at a big disadvantage. The Big House will be rocking and Sparty will have its hands full with Michigan QB Denard Robinson. Michigan is second in the nation in total offense (565.0 yards per game), third in rushing (324.4) and ninth in scoring (41.4 points per game). Most of those numbers come courtesy of Robinson, who leads the nation in rushing (181.0 yards per game) and is second in total offense (382.6). Michigan took the Spartans right down to the wire in East Lansing last year, and I like this improved Wolverines squad to get the job done at home this time around. Lay the points.
Bob Wingerter
San Diego State vs. BYU
Play: Under 52
This isn’t an Air Coryell vs. Lavell Edwards version of SDS vs. BYU. It’s Rocky vs. Bronco. Aztecs’ defensive coordinator Rocky Long was head coach at New Mexico for 10 years, hired current BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall as his defensive coordinator there, and both have moved on to different spots on the Mountain West landscape. Mendenhall just fired his defensive coordinator, when he should have fired the offensive coordinator, and the schedule-maker who lined up Washington, Air Force, Florida State, Nevada, and Utah State as the first five games of the season. Those teams are averaging 27.8, 23.5, 29.0, 43.5 and 21.5 points per game against 1-A opponents this season, but only Air Force, Florida State and Utah State got more than their average against BYU’s defense, and nobody has scored in the high 30s or 40s against the Cougars. What do ex-defensive coordinator head coaches do when they assume DC duties and want to effect an improvement in their defense, which is already playing well enough? They have the offense run the ball. Given that BYU – known for passing – ranks near the bottom of the nation in Yards Per Attempt (4.7, after 9.1 a year ago!) with their lousy freshman Jake Heaps of Trouble this season, they need to go in a different direction, which is more horizontal than vertical. Mendenhall, a 3-3-5 proponent like Long, knows that Heaps would be intercepted and/or sacked about 10 times if BYU goes in with a plan to chuck it all over the field against this type of alignment. Long knows this, too. “We’re pretty complex. It’s totally speed and quickness,” he said about the San Diego State defense earlier this week. “Every once in a while you might run into a team that’s big and strong — it could be this week — that wants to go shoe-to-shoe with you and mash you.” Beach boys are coming up to play at altitude, so they should prepare to be mashed. But San Diego State sports the nation’s second-best rushing production improvement from last season, next to Nebraska, so they can do their share of mashing back. For BYU, the problem is that they are a passing team trying to muscle up and run. They’ll have some success at it, probably not enough, but we're not concerned about BYU’s overall success. We are ony concerned about the part where the scoreboard stays where it’s at, and doesn’t blink too much.
Dan Bebe
Michigan -4.5 vs Michigan St.
Folks are abandoning Michigan, and honestly, to some degree, I can't blame them.
The Wolverines have shown a complete inability to play any defense, and barely squeaked out a win in Indiana last week...BUT...a few things are working in our favor for this game.
First, this game is huge for Rich-Rod and Michigan. They have lost each of the last 2 years to Michigan State, including 2 years ago at home in Ann Arbor. Rodriguez knows that his season, despite getting off to a nice start, really begins with this game, and I expect Michigan to pull out ALL the stops to get this one done.
Second, Michigan has no real kicking team. That might be a disadvantage in many spots, but it makes the key number of "3" far less interesting. Michigan is going for 7 points every time down the field, and they certainly have the tools to get it.
Also, Michigan has, in my opinion, a bit of an underrated rush defense. They can't stop a passing game, at all, but they've done a nice job of slowing down opposing ground games. That might lead to big games for opposing quarterbacks, especially on the road, but in the hostile confines of the Big House, I believe forcing an opponent to become one-dimensional can result in mistakes.
Michigan takes this one by a TD.
Washington St. +37 vs Oregon
What the hell??
Going against Oregon and going with Washington State? You've got to be kidding me!
There, I said it for you, so you don't have to.
This is simply a fade on an inflated line. Oregon is a tremendous club, and we successfully backed them to a Game of the Week winner last week, when everyone and their mother was on Stanford, but this game epitomizes a letdown spot.
Oregon has a "bye" the following week, they're coming off putting themselves in the driver's seat (clearly) for the Pac-10 by knocking off their closest competition, and Washington State is among the worst teams in college football.
And Oregon can say all the right things about not having a letdown and practicing extra hard this week to avoid it, but these guys are still just kids, and emotional letdowns are uncontrollable, to some degree.
Oregon will win this game, but it's going to be in the 20's.
Play on *gags* the Cougars!
Spartan
Kentucky +6.5 vs Auburn
Had a nice easy free winner last saturday with Notre Dame going to Boston College and taking care of business. I feel confident we'll enjoy success once again this week with the free release. This very likely will not be the most popular opinion but results are what I'm interested in guys so please wait until after the game to pass judgement. I am of the opinion, and in the minority in thinking the Wildcats will be up for the game it will take to cover the number against visiting Auburn. I expect no shortage of points in this one and Kentucky has the weapons needed to stay in the fight. QB Mike Hartline will need to avoid the lethal turnovers and I suspect he will. He has some great assets in RB Derrick Locke and wideout Randall Cobb. I'm not going to kid anyone here, I have little regard for the Cats on the defensive end. The stubborn fact however is that Auburn can be paper Tigers when traveling into hostile territories. They are a miserable 2-7 the last 9 on the road straight up and here they are laying 6.5 points to this potent Kentucky squad. They are also a weak 2-8 against the number the last 10 on the road. Public will be hammering away on Auburn here but I see things different. If Kentucky can plain mostly mistake free ball and maybe force a couple of turnovers themselves an outright is not out of the question here. As it is I'll gladly support a wager on Kentucky catching the generous 6.5 points in their house. Thanks as always guys and best of luck this weekend!
Jimmy Moore
Oregon State @ Arizona
Pick: Oregon State +7.5
The Beavers have 2 losses this season - to TCU and Boise State. Pretty good teams. Oregon State is a very solid conference dog and they have had good success in this series, look for that to continue today.
Steve Merril
Twins at Yankees
Play: Over 9
The Yankees can closeout the Twins with a win on Saturday night in front of the home crowd. Phil Hughes gets the start for the Yankees. He's 17-8 with a 4.23 ERA in 29 starts this season. Hughes is 11-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 18 home starts with 13 of those games going Over the total. The righty faced the Twins last May and gave up three runs and six hits in five innings of work. Delmon Young (2-5), Jason Kubel (2-3), and Denard Span (1-2) all hit Hughes well in limited at-bats. The Twins average 4.7 runs per game on the road and they are hitting .273 as a team this season. The Yankees bullpen is 13-5 with a 3.96 ERA at home this season which is nowhere near as good as their road numbers.
Minnesota’s Brian Duensing may be showing some wear and tear as a starter with his last few performances on the mound. He gave up 4 runs to the Blue Jays, 5 runs to the Tigers, and 3 runs to the Indians. None of those three starts lasted a full seven innings which will force the Twins to dip into their bullpen. Duensing pitched four innings against the Yankees this season and he gave up two runs and two hits over that time. Last October, the lefty started against New York and in that game he gave up five runs and seven hits in 4.7 innings of work. Curtis Granderson (2-7), Marcus Thames (3-6), Robinson Cano (2-4), Derek Jeter (1-3), and Mark Teixeira (1-3) all have hits against Duensing in his career. The Yankees hit .292 as a team and they are averaging 5.8 runs per game at home and 5.5 runs per game in this series so far. Minnesota’s bullpen has blown 11 saves on the road this season. In 49 games where the total has been 9 to 9.5 at home, the Yankees have gone Over the total 32 times. We expect another high-scoring game tonight so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Twins and Yankees.
Sean Murphy
Colorado St. @ Air Force
PICK: Air Force -24.5
We cashed a ticket with Colorado State last week, albeit in excruciating fashion, as the Rams lost 27-0 to TCU, barely covering the 33.5-point spread.
I'll switch gears this week, and fade the Rams as they try for their third consecutive ATS win.
Air Force has actually dropped the cash in back-to-back games, but did win SU in both, 20-14 at Wyoming and 14-6 at home against Navy. The Falcons have outgained all five of their opponents this season, and should be able to control the line of scrimmage again on Saturday.
This is quite simply a nightmarish matchup for the Colorado State defense. The Rams are giving up five yards per rush this season and now have to face a Falcons offense that is gaining over 373 yards per game on the ground on six ypr.
This series has been dominated by Air Force, as the Falcons have taken four consecutive meetings dating back to 2006, with their last three wins coming in ATS fashion as well. Over the last three years, they've outscored Colorado State by a wide 117-54 margin, covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in those three victories.
It's worth noting that Colorado State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 lined road games while Air Force is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 lined home contests against an opponent with a losing record.
The Falcons are by no means a flashy team, but they've certainly posted their share of blowout wins. Since beating Colorado State on the road last Halloween, Air Force has gone 8-2 SU, with six of those wins coming by at least 18 points.
We're asking for a little more than that on Saturday, but it should be well within reach against a Rams squad that got pounded by TCU seven days ago, and is ripe for a blowout once again. Take Air Force.
Tom Freese
USC Trojans vs. Stanford Cardinal
Play: Stanford Cardinal -9½
Stanford is scoring 39 points a game. The Cardinal are 12-3 ATS their last 15 home games and they are 20-8 ATS after passing for more than 280 yards. Stanford is 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 games as home favorites. USC is 4-1 scoring 35.8 points a game and they are 5-12 ATS their last 17 games and they are 3-11 ATS their last 14 Conference games. The Trojans are 5-16 ATS their last 21 October games and they are 3-9 ATS their last 12 road games.
Dennis Macklin
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Play: Georgia Bulldogs -11
The Georgia Bulldogs are in the unfamiliar position of having lost four straight games and haven't lost five straight since 1953. This is as good as spot as any for the Dawgs who catch the Vols traveling off LSU debacle. As the seat gets hotter and hotter for Georgia HC Mark Richt, expecting best effort of the year from the home side, especially the defense which has been a liability all year. Georgia 31-10.
Sac Lawson
N.C. State -10 vs Boston College
This is my free play for Saturday.. It's a 1 unit premium play, and I expect my clients to play it as so. Just because it's free doesn't mean it's not part of my card....
Last week was tough for NC State. To have such a solid lead against V-tech and then not only lose the game, but lose the spread for everyone also! Just terrible! They'll need to bounce back, and the fact that this game is at home will be a big part of that. They have a very very solid crowd, and their team, with the exception of the second half last week, has used that to a solid advantage in the past. An underrated home field edge, if you will.
Boston College has not covered one single spread this year, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they simply aren't very good. Haha. Seriously, though. This is a team that has had some success over the last five years, and vegas continues to give them lines accordingly because the public continues to treat this team as if nothing has changed. BUT everything has changed. While they've remained stout defensively, they've had a hell of a time finding an offensive pulse. They benched their starting QB earlier in the season to start a Freshman (Rettig), now Rettig is hurt, and they're back to a guy who may still be a bit dejected about losing his job once already this season.
Tony George
Florida Gators -6
After the Gators first regular season loss in 2 years last week in ugly fashion at Alabama, I expect them to bounce back in the Swamp today against an offensivley inept LSU team who has some issues. LSU is overrated in my opinion, have QB issues and lots of distractions with local media calling out Les Miles for a bad game calling deal AGAIN last week at Tennessee.
Florida turned it over 3 times in the red zone last week on the road against the #1 team in the country, and you will lose everytime doing that and it will be ugly in most cases and was for the Gators. LSU will look to run it at Florida as they have no capable QB to stretch the field vertically and a one deminsional offense will not work against a hungry Gator team who will stack the box and force them to throw.
Overall Florida the better team, they have a 4 point advantage at home in my power ratings and against a young team. Urban Meyer is 14-2 SU after a loss as a coach and 12-4 ATS. He knows how to get his boys back up after a loss. LSU will get exposed here and out coached.
James Patrick Sports
Tulsa vs. SMU
The Golden Hurricane features QB G.J. Kinne who passed for (2,732) yards and (22) TD's, while also leading the team in rushing yards (393 yards) and TD's (5). Kinne is the only player in school history to pass for (300) yards and rush for (100) yards in the same game. WR/KR Damaris Johnson, the nation's 2009 leader in all-purpose yards with a (224) YPG is the perfect compliment for Kinne. SMU may have their hands full as Big Game James Patrick is calling for a Hurricane Warning !!!!!!!! in Dallas as Tulsa comes to town to take on the Mustangs. Saturday College Football complimnetary selection is Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Chris Jordan
Minnesota (+22) at WISCONSIN
At this point, I don't think Wisconsin should be laying more than three touchdowns to any Division I team at all.
Okay, maybe New Mexico.
But certainly not a Big 10 rival like the Golden Gophers, who are starving for a win after four tough losses - two of which were by a field goal or less.
Don't let the 1-4 record fool you... I believe the Maroon and Gold looked past South Dakota (a 41-38 loss) to Southern Cal (a 32-21 loss), was hungover the next week against Northern Illinois (a 34-23 loss) and should have beaten Northwestern (a 29-28 loss).
That average margin of 6.5 points per setback is tough to swallow, so I think the Badgers are going to have their hands full here.
Think about it, this is the same Wisconsin team that beat UNLV by 20 points; and now it is going to lay about -22 points to a team that would stomp the Rebels by the same 20 points?
The Badgers couldn't shake San Jose at Camp Randall by more than two touchdowns, winning 27-14, then escaped an Arizona State invasion with a one-point, 20-19 victory.
The only impressive win was the 70-3 blowout of Austin Peay... big deal!
And make note, the Badgers have Ohio State coming to town next week, so I have to wonder if I'm catching them looking ahead to next week.
I'll grab the points here and look for another scrappy effort from the Golden Gophers.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Syracuse at SOUTH FLORIDA (-8)
Now for your first of two complimentary selections in college football on Saturday, take South Florida as a home chalk in early action against Syracuse.
Both teams are off to 3-1 starts, but both have posted three wins against cupcakes while getting blown out against the one quality opponent they faces (South Florida lost 38-14 at Florida; Syracuse fell 41-20 at Washington). What has me on the Bulls here is the fact they’ve won and covered all five meetings against Syracuse since South Florida joined the Big East in 2005.
Not only did the Bulls win all five games, the average victory margin has been 24 points, with each by at least 14 points. That includes home wins of 45-13 in 2008 and 27-10 in 2006.
South Florida cashed in six of its last eight games as a home favorite, while the Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog. And the 21-point loss at Washington – the Huskies outgained Syracuse 467-336 – tells me the Orange can’t compete when they step up in class, which is what they’re doing today (South Florida is better than Washington and certainly has superior athletes).
3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Karl Garrett
Michigan State (+4') at MICHIGAN
Huge Big 10 battle in Ann Arbor this Saturday, and the G-Man is siding with the underdog Spartans do come through plus the points against the Wolverines.
Michigan State has actually won and covered the last pair of series meetings, and while Michigan has a Heisman-hopeful under center, Michigan State can boast one of the best defensive players in the land in Greg Jones who will see to it Denard Robinson does not beat old Sparty with his legs.
The Spartans own the best passing attack the Wolverines have faced this year, and in case you haven't noticed, Michigan's pass defense is holier than swiss cheese.
With Coach Dantonio making an emotional return for State, it looks like all systems go to the G-Man on the Spartans plus the points.
Look for Michigan State's well-balanced offense to be able to limit the time of possession for Robinson and his high-octane offense, and for the Spartans to stay inside of this generous impost.
G-Man on Sparty plus the points boys!
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Joel Tyson
Boston College at N.C. STATE (-10)
Free winner to get your day started, as NC State blows out a bad Boston College team.
BC has won all 3 meetings in this series against former coach Tom O'Brien, but this is the year the Wolfpack make amends.
Yes, State did blow last week's game at home against Virginia Tech, but they will be ready to dish out this helping of revenge.
The home team has covered the last 5 in this series, and Boston College brings in a money-burning 1-7 spread mark their last 8 on the road.
Russell Wilson is head-and-shoulders above anyone Boston College can put under center, and I just don't see this game being close, especially with triple revenge on the side of the Wolfpack.
Lay the lumber as the 'Pack attack the Eagles.
5♦ NC STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Tennessee at GEORGIA (-11')
Now for your second complimentary college football selection on Saturday, take Georgia as a home favorite against Tennessee.
It has been a miserable month for Georgia, which has lost an unprecedented four in a row (both SU and ATS) since opening the season with a 55-7 rout of Louisiana-Lafayette. But three of the defeats came on the road (South Carolina, Mississippi State, Colorado), while the other was a last-minute 31-24 home loss to Arkansas, a Top 15 team (the Bulldogs rallied back from a 24-10 deficit in the fourth quarter).
Now Georgia is back between the hedges and facing an opponent that has to still be in hangover mode. Last week, Tennessee had LSU beaten in Baton Rouge but a penalty for 13 men on the field gave LSU one final play, and the Tigers scored from 2 yards out to steal a 16-14 win. I just don’t see the Volunteers bouncing back from such a brutal defeat, especially having to go on the road to face a Bulldogs squad that’s beyond desperate for a win.
Georgia is also in revenge mode, having gotten its clocked cleaned in Knoxville last year (45-19 loss as a one-point road favorite). In fact, the Vols have won three of the last four meetings (4-0 ATS), but those Tennessee squads were much more formidable than this year’s version (remember, it was just two weeks ago that Tennessee needed overtime to get past UAB at home, and UAB earlier this week lost 42-7 at Central Florida!).
The bottom line here is there’s a reason a team that’s in an 0-4 SU and ATS funk, has failed to cash in 11 of its last 15 home games and has allowed 28 ppg in its last three contests is laying this kind of a number. Georgia rolls big and scores the sixth straight double-digit blowout in this rivalry (winner has prevailed by an average of 18 ppg).
4♦ GEORGIA
Bobby Maxwell
Alabama (-7) at SOUTH CAROLINA
For my comp winner, it was a year ago when Alabama QB Mark Ingram had his coming out party against South Carolina, rushing for 246 yards and establishing himself as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Well, he went on to win the Heisman and he’s off to a great start this season and he’ll lead the Crimson Tide to another big win over the Gamecocks today, easily covering the number.
Alabama is clearly the class of the college football land and proved it a week ago with a 31-6 win over Florida, dominating from the opening kickoff and easily cashing as 7 ½-point favorites. Ingram had two TDs in that game and he’s rushed for 335 yards and six TDs in three games this season.
The Crimson Tide running game features Ingram and Trent Richardson, who has run for 419 yards and four TDs. Ingram averages 7.9 yards per carry while Richardson averages 7.4. South Carolina gave up 334 rushing yards in a 35-27 loss to Auburn on Sept. 25 and today they get the best running team in the SEC.
The Gamecocks collapsed against Auburn and that has really been their problem the last few seasons. Starting QB Stephen Garcia had two fourth quarter fumbles against Auburn and he was replaced by freshman Connor Shaw who threw two interceptions in his time in the fourth quarter.
South Carolina hasn’t beaten an opponent in the Top three since 1981. The last time Alabama was in South Carolina was 2005 when the Crimson Tide scored a 37-14 win as two-point favorites. They have opened this season 4-1 ATS and they are on further ATS streaks of 9-3 on the road, 11-5 in SEC play, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-2 as road favorites and 11-5 on the road against teams with winning home records.
The Gamecocks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six October games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points.
This series has also seen the road team cash in each of the last four meetings. So look for that trend to continue today as Alabama gets a big double-digit road win and easily covers the number.
4♦ ALABAMA
Scott Delaney
LSU at FLORIDA (-6')
Big trouble, that's how I'm starting this one.
I've given Jordan Jefferson too many chances to prove himself to me, and this kid is just ripe for a defensive buzz saw, and this is the week he gets cut down.
Big time!
The Gators have the 19th best defense in the nation, and that's after taking a beating from Alabama, 31-6, last week. Despite the 25-point setback to the No. 1 team in the nation, the Gators are still outscoring foes by 14 points, having knocked off Miami-Ohio, South Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky.
The held those four teams to an average of 14.25 points, and with LSU bringing in the 91st ranked offense to Gainesville, I don't see anything good taking place for Jefferson.
Since averaging about 28 points per game in their first three games, the Tigers have been limited to a total of 36 points in their last two wins, including last week's 16-14 win over Tennessee, which is 2-3 and has the 78th-ranked defense in the nation.
Now, I know LSU is looking to either make a switch to Victor Thomas under center, or is attempting to make a two-quarterback system work, but is this really the week to experiment with change.
Whatever the case, LSU is no match for Florida this season, and the Gators will be looking to take out last week's frustrations on the Tigers.
Gators chomp by double digits.
4♦ FLORIDA
Joel Tyson
Pittsburgh (-6) at NOTRE DAME
In the college game, I think there is value to be found with teams in revenge situations, and Notre Dame is a school in double-revenge against Dave Wannstedt's Pittsburgh Panthers.
Yes, Pitt can run the ball, but I am not so sure they can pass it, as Tino Sunseri has not shown much in that department yet this year.
Notre Dame QB Dayne Crist looked sharp last week in Notre Dame's road win and cover at Boston College, and with 2 losses in a row on their home field already this season, it is about time Brian Kelly's team rights their ship.
Notre Dame has dropped the last pair in this series in stinging fashion, losing 27-22 last year in the Steel City, and blowing a 17-3 lead at home 2 years ago in a 4-overtime loss under Touchdown Jesus.
Irish out for blood in this one, and they get it.
Notre Dame minus the points the call.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Stephen Nover
Florida State (+6) at MIAMI
I'm going to take the points with Florida State against Miami.
Backing the underdog definitely has been the way to go in this in-state, ACC rivalry matchup. The last nine matchups have been decided by an average of 4.1 points. The 'dog has cashed in 10 of the last 11 meetings. The underdog actually has won straight-out during seven of the past eight years.
I can see that happening again this year.
Miami's star quarterback, Jacory Harris, has a bruised shoulder. He's an exciting talent, but not a very accurate passer and he's turnover-prone. Harris has been picked off 25 times since the start of last season.
Florida State also has an outstanding quarterback, Christian Ponder, who is less likely to commit a turnover. He hasn't been picked off during his past three games. Quarterback play is huge because these are the two best defenses statistically in the ACC. Florida State ranks first in sacks with 25.
The Seminoles have stepped up in their last three games as they get accustomed to new coach Jimbo Fisher. They've outscored BYU, Wake Forest and Virginia by a 99-24 count.
I'm not a fan of Miami coach Randy Shannon. I don't trust him in big games. The Hurricanes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing a team with a winning road mark. Since Shannon became Miami's head coach in 2007, the Hurricanes are 6-12 ATS hosting FBS opponents.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
Stephen Nover
Southern Cal (+10) at STANFORD
I'm going to take the points with USC against Stanford.
We all knew the Trojans were going to be down this season with no bowl incentive. But this is the one Pac-10 game where they'll be super motivated.
Not only did Stanford whip Southern Cal last year, 55-21, dealing the Trojans their worst loss since 1966 but they rubbed it in, too. Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh had his team go for two points already leading 48-21 midway through the final quarter.
Stanford still could be reeling from blowing a 21-3 lead in last week's disappointing 52-31 road loss at Oregon.
Stanford has a top-flight quarterback, Andrew Luck. But USC's Matt Barkley is very good, too. It's Barkley, not Luck or Washington's Jake Locker, who has the highest passer rating in the Pac-10.
Luck definitely can hurt USC through the air. The Trojans rank a mind-boggling 116th in pass defense. But the Trojans have the necessary balanced attack to play ball control and take advantage of Stanford's 84th-ranking in rush defense. The Trojans have three excellent running backs to go with talented wide receivers.
Note, too, the Trojans are 11-1 ATS as underdogs when off a straight-up loss.
3♦ SOUTHERN CAL
Bobby Maxwell
Tampa Bay at TEXAS (-130)
For my comp winner, the Texas Rangers went to Tampa and stole two games from the Rays and are in command of this series as Game 3 goes today in Arlington. I’m looking for the Rangers to close it out behind the pitching of Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA).
At home this season, Lewis was 6-4 with a 3.41 ERA, and over his final three starts of the year, he posted a 2.50 ERA. He held each of his last five opponents to two runs or less, including the season-finale against the Angels when he gave up two runs on just one hit in five innings.
Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) is on the hill for Tampa tonight and he was just 7-8 on the road with a 4.27 ERA. The Rays lost four of his last five starts this season and each of his last three on the highway. Over those three roadies, he allowed 14 runs in 16.1 innings. Garza faced the Rangers in Texas on June 6 and gave up four runs in 5.2 innings but was bailed out by his offense with a 9-5 win.
The Rangers are 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Rays in Texas and they are on several positive runs coming into this one, including 42-19 as a home favorite, 7-1 at home against winning teams, 7-0 against A.L. East teams and 6-0 at home against squads with a winning road mark.
Tampa is just 2-8 in its last 10 after an off day, 0-4 in playoff road games, 4-9 as a road ‘dog and 2-5 overall, plus with Garza on the hill, the Rays are on slides of 2-6 on the road, 5-16 on the road against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five overall.
The Texas faithful will be out in force for this one and the Rangers will get some big hits down the stretch to open this game up and finish off the Rays. Lay the chalk and play Texas in this one.
2♦ TEXAS
Charlie Scott
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Play: Baylor +1
Texas Tech new coach Tommy Tuberville inherits the Tech program from fired Coach Mike Leach and both Coaches have completely different Football schemes and philosophies. Leach just wanted to pass every down and leave the defense to someone else. Tuberville is trying to keep similiar schemes this system, while inputting his system. It's just NOT working. Baylor is in it's 3rd Year under one of the better Head Coaches fans don't know about Art Briles. Led by do everything QB Robert Griffin, Baylors offense is exciting and can score from anywhere on the field. Baylor as a program is just further along right now then Texas Tech and at the price of Pick, Baylor is a bargain. Baylor is no longer that doormat Big 12 team, is the better team Today, and is going to a Bowl game this Year !