Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Utah Utes -6
With a bye week to prepare, I expect a high-powered Utah offense to be able to cover this number against a porous Iowa State defense. Utah is averaging 44.3 points, tied for sixth-best in the nation, and shouldn't have any problem moving the ball against an Iowa State team allowing 384.4 yards per game (84th in the FBS). It addition, Utah ranks seventh in the country in total defense. Iowa State was able to gain big yards on the ground against Texas Tech last week, but I like Utah, which has held 3 of its 4 opponents below the century mark, to have success in slowing down that ground game. From a technical standpoint, Utah looks good as well. In fact, plays against a home team that allowed 37 points or more in its last game, if that team is up against an opponent coming off 2 straight wins by 28 or more points, are 24-4 ATS the last 10 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 years. It is also worth noting that the Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the MWC. Lay the points with Utah.
Rocketman
Illinois @ Penn State
Play: Penn State -7.5
Illinois is 1-5 ATS since 1992 as a road underdog of 7 1/2 to 10 points. Illinois is 25-102 SU as an underdog since 1992. Penn State is 7-1 ATS last 3 years in October. Illinois is scoring only 13 points per game on the road this year. Penn State is 3-0 SU at home this year. Penn State is allowing only 15 points per game overall this year and 9 points per game at home this season. Fighting Illini are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. Nittany Lions are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in October. We'll recommend a small play on Penn State today!
Jack Jones
UCLA +7.5
The UCLA Bruins have been a tale of two completely different teams. The Bruins started the season 0-2, but have rebounded to go 3-0 in their last 3 games with dominant wins over Houston, Texas and Washington State. They beat the Longhorns 34-12 in their last road game. No way should the Bruins be more than a touchdown underdog to a 2-2 Cal team Saturday that will finish in the middle of the Pac-10 come season's end. The Bruins are certainly looking for payback from their 26-45 home loss to Cal last season.
UCLA is a healthy 15-4 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA has found their offense in recent weeks, and they have a lot of confidence coming into this game riding a 3-game winning streak. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. Bet UCLA Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hawaii +11 over FRESNO STATE
10:00 PM EST. It’s east to forget that the Rainbow Warriors are only a couple of years removed from playing in a BCS game but that’s what happens when your coach and quarterback both leave after taking the program to its zenith. Hawaii has undergone major changes since those glory days and while they can’t be expected to contend for a BCS game for a very long time, this is still a program that can compete in its own conference. The Rainbow Warriors have averaged 430 yards passing through the air this season and considering Fresno State’s complete aversion to playing teams that have some semblance of a passing game it’s safe to say Hawaii will be able to pass today. Hawaii quarterback Bryant Moniz has put up ridiculous numbers thus far this season, completing 66% of his passes while sporting a 15-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Moniz hasn’t put up these numbers against feeble opponents either, throwing for 270 yards against Southern Cal and 343 yards against a decent Army team. Fresno State comes into this game 3-1 but its one loss was a bad one against Mississippi while two of its wins came against Cal Poly and Utah State. They also have had to deal with the loss of the programs best running back in school history in first round pick Ryan Matthews and have thus far split the carries between A.J. Ellis and Robbie Rouse who aren’t in the same stratosphere as Mathews talent-wise. Pat Hill is a good coach who has replaced stars before but he really hasn’t faced a premier offense like Hawaii’s this season. If you’re going to lay 11 points with a team you want to have a good idea of what their defense is capable and not capable of doing but the truth for Fresno State backers is that they have no clue if the Bulldogs will even be able to hold Hawaii to a punt this game. We’ll stick to recommending plays on double-digit dogs who can score, as Hawaii certainly fits that bill. Play: #403 Hawaii +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Michigan State +4½ over MICHIGAN
3:30 PM EST. Ok, lets get this out of the way right now: Dernard Robinson is an amazing college QB that has put up statistics that simply don’t seem possible to accumulate in a 60-minute game. The hype surrounding this guy is well merited but unfortunately for Wolverine backers football is the ultimate team game and at the end of the day the Michigan State Spartans simply have more talent than the Wolverines. Not only do they have the talent edge, but even the most adamant Blue supporters will admit their schedule has been rather tepid when compared with the Spartans and exhibit A is that Saturday’s tilt will be against its first ranked opponent all year. Michigan State has already played and beaten an excellent Wisconsin team and beaten Notre Dame as the Wolverines did on September 11th. If the rule of thumb is give the home team is a 3-point edge and add the point because the Spartans really haven’t played a road game this year then this line makes a lot of sense. Add the uncertainty surrounding Michigan State’s coach Mark Dantonio and you start to justify why the Wolverines were made favorites. Don’t fall for the trap; having Robinson at the pivot masks the fact that Michigan’s defense has been simply atrocious this year, allowing opponents to rack up 433 yards per game with almost 310 of those coming through the air. That plays right into the hands of the potent Michigan State offense that has averaged 460 yards per game, split almost evenly between rushing and passing and one that will have no problem gaining yards on a team that has proven it can’t stop anybody. Let the public anoint Robinson as the second coming while you take the well balanced, disciplined and most importantly more talented Spartans squad. Play: #319 Michigan State +4½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.18 over Minnesota
Forget the pitching matchups for a second. The fact is the Yanks have a huge psychological advantage over the Twins and you can triple that with the game in the Bronx. Minnesota has virtually no shot here because they’re beat before they even take the field. They simply can’t beat this team and not only can’t they beat them but they play like the Pirates when they face them. The Twinkies win in New York about once every leap year. They have six wins in its last 35 games here and overall they’ve won 18 of the last 74 vs the Yanks. That’s serious folks and now they’re down 0-2 and again, mentally, they’re a beaten down squad. Okay, now lets get to the pitchers. Not only are the Twinkies beaten mentally but they have a southpaw going at Yankee Stadium. Brian Duensing helped the Twins with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP as a starter in the second half when he moved from the bullpen into the rotation. But he rolled up most of that performance - nine of 13 starts - pitching against opponents .500 or worse. In his four starts against playoff-caliber teams, he posted a 5.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.57. What’s more ominous against the Yanks’ mashers, Duensing’s HR/9 was a nifty 0.4 against lesser clubs, but 2.0 against winning teams and this park is not forgiving to lefthanders that give up jacks. Over his career, Phil Hughes has faced Twins starters 27 times and they have managed just one extra-base hit, a double by Mike Cuddyer. Hughes rolls into the playoffs off three straight strong starts, two against TB and one against Boston. If you make one wager today with about 130 games on the board between college and pro sports, this should be it. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +1.29 over TORONTO
From a wagering standpoint the absolute best thing occurred when the Maple Leafs beat the Habs and the Sens lost to the Sabres. Now the inferior squad is favored and we’ll jump right in. Make no mistake, the Leafs are among the three worst teams in the league and anyone that thinks otherwise is delusional. So, ignore what you hear by the so-called experts on TSN, the Leafs are not improved from a year ago and in fact they might be worse. They have less goal scorers than anyone, its defense is sloppy as hell and they don’t have a Ryan Miller caliber goaltender to bail them out. They didn’t look good in its opener despite the fact that the Canadiens were without two of its top players in Mike Cammalleri and Andrei Markov. The Sens played a very tough and sound defensively Sabre club last night and lost 2-1. Big deal. The Sabres are a strong team with the best goaltender in the business. The Sens top line of Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Milan Michalek will score goals. They have a rock-solid second line of Mike Fisher, Alex Kovalev and either Peter Regin or Nick Foligno. They also picked up Sergei Gonchar to boost its power-play and there’s no doubt he’ll do just that. The Sens also have a ton of grit with talented and physical players like Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Neal and Chris Kelly. This is the biggest overlay on the board today and the fact that the hugely flawed Leafs are favored by this much is ludicrous. Play: Ottawa +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
Dallas +1.07 over NY ISLANDERS
The first thing to point out here is that the Islanders have lost two key defenders right off the bat in Mark Streit and Kyle Okposo. The Islanders made a huge mistake a couple of years ago by signing Rick DiPietro to a monster contract and because of that they feel obligated to play him to try and get their money’s worth. That’ll never happen. DiPietro has missed the most part of the past two years. He was below average then and he’ll be below average now and when you consider the Islanders are without two of its best D-Men, it’s safe to say this team is in a whole world of trouble defensively. The Stars went into New Jersey and fell behind 2-0 last night before the fans got comfortable. The place was rocking, the Devils were flying and it looked like it was going to be a blowout. After the second goal, Marc Crawford took his timeout and the Stars rallied to win 4-3 in OT. It was the most impressive opener thus far by any team. The Stars got rid of its aging vets like Modano, Turco and Jere Lehtinen but they have significant talent indeed. James Neal is quickly becoming one of the best young scoring forwards in the league. Brad Richards, Loui Erikkson and Brendan Morrow would be top forwards on any team. Keep your eye on Jamie Benn, who burst onto the scene last season with 22 goals. He was a decorated player in Canadian junior hockey and has not missed a beat stepping up to the top level. The Stars are a very undervalued squad and offer up some tremendous value here, especially after that very impressive performance last night. Play: Dallas +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.29 over CHICAGO
Despite losing at least 10 players from its Stanley Cup squad a year ago, the Chicago Blackhawks are still a quality club that’s going to win a lot of games. However, the Red Wings are definitely back to its usual elite status and may be the best team in the NHL this season. Also note that Jimmy Howard is the best young goaltender in the game and he, too, will be recognized this season as one of the game’s elite. The Blackhawks will raise its Cup banner on this night but the Red Wings will spoil the party. Marty Turco v Jimmy Howard is all you need to know to find this take-back appealing. The Red Wings were near flawless in its opening night victory over the Ducks. Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Holmstrom combine skill, grit and responsible defensive play to form one of the most effective lines in the entire league and they’re not alone. Valtteri Filppula anchors the Red Wings second line, with Johan Franzen and Todd Bertuzzi on his wings. Franzen scored 27 and 34 goals in 2007-08 and 2008-09, respectively, but he skated in just 27 games during the regular season last year and notched 10 goals and 11 assists. "The Mule" was able to return from knee surgery in time for the postseason and he recorded six goals and 12 assists in 12 playoff games. Injuries kept the Red Wings from ever really getting untracked last season, but the talent pool in Detroit is still one of the deepest in the entire league and although early, this is an important game for them. Again, Jimmy Howard v Turco seals the deal. Play: Detroit +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.51 over VANCOUVER
You might as well take back the 51 cents being offered here because if the Kings stay healthy you’re not going to see a price like this on them much longer. With promising young stars all over their roster, the Kings could have the early makings of a dynasty on their hands and they’re about to join the elite teams in this league. The Kings third line of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Michal Handzus and Wayne Simmonds gives you an idea of how talented this team is. Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Jarred Stoll, Justin Williams and Scott Parse are all front-line NHL players and we haven’t even mentioned Drew Doughty. With all due respect to Kopitar, the most important player in the Kings' stable of rising superstars is Drew Doughty. Doughty exploded for 16 goals and 59 points in 2009-10. It was also obvious that he was L.A.'s best skater in the playoffs, pumping in three goals and four assists in six games against Vancouver. Doughty also earned what is likely to be the first of many Norris Trophy nominations. As if having a defenseman of Doughty's pedigree wasn't enough, the Kings also boast Jack Johnson, the former third-overall pick by Carolina at the 2005 draft. Johnson had his best season as a pro last year, recording eight goals and 28 assists while playing in 80 games. Like Doughty, Johnson also was extremely impressive in his first postseason, notching seven assists for the Kings. Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene are pair of solid, stay-at-home defensemen and the signing of Willie Mitchell this summer gives the Kings a steady blue line with a physical edge. The Canucks are a very good team too and they’re definitely contenders. However, this one is all about taking back a sweet price on the Kings, a team more than capable of beating anyone on a given night. Play: Los Angeles +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +11 over SASKATCHEWAN
Contrary to what many believe the Green Riders are not so strong. They struggled to beat the Argos in Toronto last week and they did the same against Hamilton the previous week. This is a rather complacent group and one that is in no way to be trusted laying big points. The thinking is that if they won in Toronto last week by 11 they should easily beat them at home this week by at least that much and more. Not so fast. The Riders have bigger fish to fry and with a game against the Stampeders on deck next week, this is an unfavorable spot for the hosts. They have not won by the margin offered here in its last six games and there’s nothing to suggest that’ll change here. Darian Durant is not 100% and even when he is he still makes a lot of poor decisions. The Argos have many problems of their own, including a funk that’s seen them lose five of six. They also have some key injuries on defense but don’t expect them to lay down. They were running the ball effectively last week and in fact outgained the Riders on the ground 178-66. The 11-point loss is not indicative of just how close the game was. The Riders are an extremely overvalued club and it would not surprise us one bit to see the Argos win this one outright due to the fact that the Riders have Calgary up next week and will see this game as more of an inconvenience than anything else. Play: Toronto +11 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
OC Dooley
Pittsburgh/Notre Dame Over 50
With the master of the “spread” offense Brian Kelly now at the helm of Notre Dame it is hard to imagine that we actually have some value with this particular total, but that is the case in part due to the fact that the Irish attack has actually regressed each of the past three weeks. Of course Kelly has had to install brand new schemes and we are now getting deep enough into the season where the Irish offense is bound to explode, so the current pattern of the Golden Domers playing 4 of 5 games “below” the spot is about to change. It was one year ago when the posted total between Notre Dame and Pittsburgh (59) was extremely inflated which that particular contest stay below the spot. The last time these two programs hooked up at Notre Dame was a memorable 36-33 shootout and I am expecting more of the same this time around in part because of a major INJURY suffered by the visitors defense. Pittsburgh standout middle linebacker Dan Mason sustained a season-ending knee injury last week which gives the Irish more room to attack the middle. On the other side of the football Pittsburgh actually stuck with quarterback Tino Sunseri last week creating some chemistry behind center. For those that watch today’s game on NBC you will notice that Sunseri has both a strong arm and mobility. But the big story involving the Panthers offense is at running back where Dion Lewis (1,799 rush yards and “2009 Big East Offensive Player of the Year) continues to struggle with a sore shoulder and may soon be surpassed by dynamic reserve Ray Graham (492 rush yards) who rambled for an amazing 277 yards on the ground a week ago. My database research indicates that Notre Dame long term is 10-2 OVER the total when off a game where the defense held an opponent to “40 or less” rush yards. To make a long story short Notre Dame worked out an agreement with NBC who telecasts all home games that the commercial breaks be shortened in order for the “spread” offense to be more effective
John Ryan
Alabama at South Carolina
Prediction: South Carolina
Alabama is gong to have their hands full in this game. The Tide is off a very impressive home win against Florida last week, but now must face another nationally ranked team from the SEC that has had two weeks to prepare for them. This is the seventh time that the AP No.1 team has defeated a Top-10 opponent at home and then went on the road to play a ranked opponent in the next week. The AP No. 1 team has lost five times in six occasions. Back in 1990, a Lou Holtz led Notre Dame team defeated Michigan at home and then went on the road and defeated Michigan State by just one point. That game is the only time the AP No.1 has survived this most difficult test.
Two weeks ago, South Carolina was torched by the Auburn running game and now have to face the 2009 Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. In the Auburn game the Gamecock defensive front did not play well and were physically outmatched. They got caught looking for play action pass too many times and were out of position as a result. DT Ladi Ajiboye was doubled teamed the majority of the time and DT Travian Robertson was turned outside creating large holes for the running backs to shoot through. The linebackers reacted on running fakes far too much as well. Auburn had an easy time running the ball in the second half of that game and was the dominant factor that the Gamecocks blew a 20-7 lead.
In having two weeks to prepare, the Gamecocks have had more than enough time to correct these fundamental problems. Ironically, the Tide Wild Cat package will help them maintain gap discipline given that the snap may go to one of any three players. Alabama quarterback McElroy was not nearly as good as the final score of last week?s Florida win. On several occasions, he took far too long to make his read and throw the ball. The Gamecocks can bring pressure in the gaps and not lose anything to the run. Making Alabama one dimensional is key for the Gamecocks to win.
The Gamecocks freshman running back Marcus Lattimore is a sensational athlete and he will test the Alabama defense in this game. Although Alabama did well against Florida last week, they have yet to play against a running back with this talent level. Also, head coach Spurrier has had two week?s, with an offensive unit that returned eight starters from last season, to expose the Alabama defense that likes to go from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme on any down. Getting the ball to Lattimore in the flat when the Tide is in the 4-3 scheme will a key play to ball control drives by the Gamecocks.
Here is a supporting system for the play on the Gamecocks that has produced a 79-33 record for 71% winners since 2000. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after four or more consecutive straight up wins. Spurrier is a near perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take the Gamecocks.
Dan Bebe
NYY (-170) vs MIN
Let's face it, the Yankees are back in the Twins' head, and that mental edge means this series is over.
The Twins pitching edge got them nowhere, and the bullpen hasn't been the advantage that they hoped.
New York's bats just keep whittling away all game long, and the floodgates always seem to open in one key inning, while Minnesota has their few chances, and doesn't seem to take advantage of them.
Duensing ended the season with his worst 2 starts of the year, and has an ERA over 8 against the Yankees in very limited work. Phil Hughes ended the season with a strong effort against the Red Sox, and I think he does a good job of feeding off the New York crowd. He has also pitched in the postseason before, which should help, and New York knows how to use that home field to their advantage.
Sorry Twinkies, maybe next year.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have taken a commanding lead over the Tampa Bay Rays by winning the first two games in this series on the road. They now come home and try to close out the suddenly struggling Rays. The Rays are now 13-17 in their last 30 games, and just 3-7 in their last 10. The Rays’ bats have gone stone cold at the absolute worst possible time. Tampa has produced just 19 runs in their last 10 games, less than 2 per contest. In the process, they have been shutout four times, after being shutout just six times the entire season prior to the slump. Matt Garza owns a losing record on the road with a poor 4.27 ERA on the season, and the Rays are just 4-10 in his last 14 road starts. The Rays’ numbers with Garza on the hill with a posted total from 9-10.5 is a dreadful 4-19. The Rangers are 37-14 when facing a total of 9-10.5 in their last 51. Teams that lose the first two of the first round of an MLB playoffs series are just 3-8 in game three facing elimination. I'll go with Texas in this one.
LT Profits
Rangers -1½
The Texas Rangers have taken a stranglehold of this best-of-five ALDS vs. the Tampa Bay Rays by taking a 2-0 lead on the road, and we now look for them to finish the sweep at home. Given that the Rays are not hitting a lick and bickering with umpires, the Run Line looks like a nice play here with great value.
The bookmakers have set the betting odds on the Texas -1½ Run Line here at a fat +170.
Lewis deserved a better fate than his 12-13 record this season, as the normally potent Texas lineup somehow did not support him al that well. After all, Lewis did have a nice 3.72 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts covering 201.0 innings. He also showed excellent command, with 196 strikeouts against just 65 walks in 201 innings.
On top of this, Lewis closed out the year well, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, allowing a total of only 20 hits in 30.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and 10 walks. It certainly does not hurt that he is now facing a Rays’ lineup that is batting a pathetic .157 over the last 10 games while averaging only 1.70 runs per game, including managing a grand total of one run and eight hits in the first two games of this series!
TampaBaystarter Matt Garza actually finished at 15-10 this year, with those 15 wins being a career high, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, he only had two Quality Starts and two wins in six September starts, with an ugly 5.86 ERA and a horrible 1.86 WHIP for the entire month. Allowing nearly two baserunners per inning is not exactly an ideal approach to dealing with this potent Texas lineup.
Given that the Rangers are exuding confidence right now while the Rays look like a dead team, we will gladly sacrifice the 1½ runs in this spot, considering we are gaining what we feel is great value by doing so.