Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday September, 1

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. Southern California
Pick: Southern California
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This isn't the largest pointspread on the Week 1 board (LSU is laying more points against North Texas) but I feel it could easily prove to be the biggest blowout.
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The Trojans were very good last year. They scored more than 35 points a game. They had a double-digit win season, including victories over the likes of Oregon and Notre Dame - they also beat up on rival UCLA by a score of 50-0.
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That 2011 success didn't get the Trojans anything, as they were still banned from the postseason. That's no longer the case, as USC is once again eligible to compete when it matters.
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Last year's team was a young one. Now, the Trojans return with an added year of experience. After having to watch the bowls on TV last year, they're also very hungry.
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Quarterback Matt Barkley, who spent a few days this summer hanging with Peyton and Eli Manning (at their passing academy) begins the season as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner and a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick.
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Barkley could already been in the NFL but returned because he wants to win a championship. Having perhaps the best tandem of wideouts in the nation (Robert Woods and Marqise Lee) doesn't hurt. Barkley was quoted as saying: "Looking at the team we have it's definitely something special. We're on the rise."
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The Hawaii athletes aren't in the same class as those playing for USC. They're young, learning new schemes and weak on the line.
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Kiffin's first game as coach of USC came against the Warriors back on September 2nd, 2010. Laying -21 points (at Hawaii) the Trojans won by "only" 13. The Warriors threw for a whopping 459 yards and had an edge in both total yards and first downs. Things should be much different on Saturday. Kiffin's got a couple of season's under his belt and has his best team. Playing at home this time, I expect the Trojans to win this one going away, showing the world how far they've come since Kiffin came on the scene two years ago. Consider laying the large number.

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Nevada +10.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While a lot of players will play the chalk in the Opener , we will ride a nice nasty dog with Nevada Wolfpack and the +10 1/2 vs the banged up Cal Bears.... Nevada brings a savvy and veteran coach in Chris Ault who has 28 years as Wolf Pack head coach and super strong O line. The Wolfpack have the edge imo in the kicking game. Nevada Backer DeAndre Boughton is a monster o "D".... Cal Wins .. Nevada Covers the 10 1/2 .

Hollywood Sports
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San Diego St. at Washington
Prediction: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It may be tempting to take the Over in this game after considering that the Huskies allowed a whopping 467 points last season -- including 51, 65 and 67 points respectively in their last three games. But with a completely overhauled defensive coaching staff now coordinated by Justin Wilcox (formerly of Tennessee), Washington's defense has nowhere to go but up -- and they do return seven experienced starters who should be improved with another year under their belt. The Huskies are led by quarterback Keith Price who broke a school record with 33 touchdown passes. But he will be without his security blanket in running back Chris Polk who departed for the NFL without an heir apparent to fill his role. Additionally, Washington loses much of their home field advantage since renovations on their campus stadium will have the Huskies playing the home of the Seattle Seahawks in CenturyLink Field. This new locale will detract from the comfort level of the offense -- especially in home games early in the season. San Diego State returns six starters on their defense led by cornerback Leon McFadden who has developed into an elite cover man. Head coach Rocky Long iss an excellent defensive mind that will have his team ready for this opening contest. The Aztecs' most pressing challenge is on the offensive end where they have to replace four-year starting quarterback Ryan Lindley as well as running back Ronnie Hillman who rushed for over 1700 yards last year. While both those players have moved on to the NFL, San Diego State will rely on a committee of running backs as well as Oregon State Ryan Katz at QB. Katz has a strong arm and starting experience with the Beavers -- but he lost the job there for a reason. Question marks also exist on the offensive line as Oregon State must replace three starters from last year. This offense will likely struggle in this opening game on the road. As it is, the Aztecs have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total. With the number set in the 60s, the Under offers nice value.

Brad DiamondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshall vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -24
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Historically, one of the keys to any college football season is experience. Well, the visiting Thundering Herd bring 13 returning starters to the fold, while the Mounties welcome 14, including first team Big East QB Geno Smith (6-3, 214). In a suspended (14:36) affair last season WVA (-23 ½) survived 34-13. QB Smith made the difference in that fast pace affair throwing for 2 touchdowns, completing 26-35 passes (249). Overall the short series has been all West Virginia as the Mounties have taken 11 straight entering Saturday. On defense, WVA returns 5 seniors and 5 juniors to a unit that allowed 26.8 points per game and 4.0 yards per carry (137). DC Joe DeForest was hired (Oklahoma State) to improve the #33 ranked defense that allowed 4.92 yards per play. Still, on-deck is a solid high scoring offense (37.6) with Smith leading the way, followed by Garrison, Austin, Bailey and Woods. Going up against CUSA contingent Marshall should be business as usual, especially considering just 5 returning starters hit the defensive side of the ball for the Herd. At the end of 2011 UM did defeat Memphis (23-22) and East Carolina (34-27). However, our office sees West Virginia as a highly improved unit, one that will not have many problems with this level club. Down the road, and just as a note, their (WVA) entrance in the Big-12 will, most likely, slice from their 10-3 record in 2011. On Saturday, West Va. 47 Marshall 20.

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Miss vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -20
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The Huskers open up the 2012 season with last years returning Conference USA Champs Southern Miss. While name recognition is always a factor in the lines, especially early in the season, it seems oddsmakers are commanding a ton of respect for Nebraska here. Anytime I have a 4 loss team from the previous year, who struggled in the Big 10 their first year and not meeting expectations laying almost 3 TD's to a returning conference champion, it gives me great pause. Opening games can sometimes show weakness's, flaws, penalties or just plain rustiness, and when you are Nebraska, Ohio State, LSU , Alabama and other dynasty type schools, you always get everyone's best shot because those schools playing them want a signature win.
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The Huskers offense is going to be simple to stop, if you have the horses to do it, as a healthy dose of QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead will be the order of the day for Nebraska as they will be a run first type team and they are also deep at RB with good rotation. While rumors of QB Martinez's passing has improved, the Huskers cannot stretch the field vertically until they prove otherwise, and it simply killed them against good teams last year, especially when playing from behind. Bo Pellini has a new offensive coordinator so some new look schemes will be out there in this game for NU as well. The Huskers defense lost some key players to the NFL, but the Blackshirts are deep, physical and speedy and match up well here..
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Southern Miss returns 11 starters overall and an offense that could get it done in 2011, ranking 14th nationally in scoring, but that is history now. Head coach Larry Fedora bolted for North Carolina. Tommy West from Memphis implements a new defense as a coordinator, a QB issue is a serious concern as all world Austin Davis is gone. With a new coaching staff, major inexperience at QB and playing NU in their home opener, Southern Miss will struggle here, especially late in the game and NU pulls away late with power football and an aggressive defense who will attack a weak QB position that will lead to turnovers. Nebraska 35 Southern Miss 10 - Lean to the Huskers in Lincoln

Lenny Del GenioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State
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The Urban Meyer era begins at Ohio State at high noon this Saturday and we are banking on Columbus quickly "rediscovering" winning after a one-year hiccup where Luke Fickell (retained as Def Coordinator) was left to man the ship following the abrupt dismissal of Jim Tressel last May. Meyer steps into a great situation this year with 15 starters back, including nine on the defensive side of the ball. In Braxton Miller, Meyer already has a quarterback that can run his system, which has been so successful at every stop he’s made in his career (Bowling Green, Utah, Florida). While the Buckeyes are ineligible for the postseason this year (1-year bowl ban as a result of Tressel), that won’t stop them here from blowing out an over-matched in-state foe. Miami (OH) will find no luck in the Horseshoe here as Meyer will look to make an immediate statement in his first game. OSU has won 33 straight home openers (by an average of 22 PPG) as well as a perfect 16-0 vs. the Mid American Conference in the new millennium, winning those games by an average of 25 PPG. A real men against boys situation here. Take Ohio State.

Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama
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Michigan enjoyed one heck of a first season for Brady Hoke, finishing their eleven win season with a thrilling overtime victory over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. But it’s not going to be an easy task for the Wolverines to repeat that level of performance in 2012. Michigan suffered significant graduation losses on both the offensive and defensive lines; bad news for ultra-hyped senior QB Denard Robinson.
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Nor can the Wolverines expect to win every close game like they did last year, 100% perfect in games decided by a TD or less. And make no mistake about it – this is a step up in class game for the Wolverines. Michigan’s last three ‘step up in class’ games away from home? They lost 42-7 and 37-7 at Ohio State, and 52-14 to Mississippi State; completely non-competitive in all three contests.
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Alabama suffered major graduation losses as well, but Nick Saban’s program is quite capable of withstanding the losses of eight NFL draft choices, including four in the first round. No coach in the country has more elite level talent stockpiled on his bench than Saban does. This defense has ranked in the top five nationally in each of the last four years, capable of disrupting the Wolverines at the line of scrimmage, with enough team speed to keep ‘Shoelace’ Robinson in the pocket, not making plays with his feet.
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Alabama doesn’t beat themselves very often; ranked in the Top 5 nationally in fewest turnovers in each of the past three seasons. Returning QB starter AJ McCarron threw only five interceptions in 328 pass attempts last year – in sharp contrast to Robinson’s 15 INT’s on 258 throws. And with 95 career starts returning on the offensive line, look for the Crimson Tide to enjoy solid offensive balance, keeping the Wolverines defense out of sync throughout.
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Michigan’s offense was stymied against the two best defenses they faced last year. Michigan State held the Wolverines to 14 points and 250 yards. Virginia Tech held Michigan to 184 total yards, but Michigan won the turnover battle and got the breaks, managing to score 20 points in regulation. The only game last year where ‘Bama allowed more than 14 points came in a late season affair against FCS Georgia Southern, a game where Saban emptied his bench. Saban might empty his bench here, but not before Alabama has an insurmountable lead… Take Alabama.

GameplanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas St vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -37THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas State is coming off a breakout season, but they lose most of last year's starting lineup on both sides of the football. They are also breaking in a new head coach as Hugh Freeze left for Ole Miss and has been replaced by former Auburn offensive assistant Gus Malzahn. And while Arkansas State was already an up tempo offensive squad, Malzahn will turn the heat up even more and try to play as fast as possible. The bad news for Arkansas State is that Coach Malzahn and his wide-open style of play is tailor-made for Oregon, and it makes them ideally-suited to get absolutely blown off the field by the Ducks and their Gang Green Attack. Coach Chip Kelly and the Ducks LOVE to play this style of football and they should have a blast going against a reasonably talented, but extremely inexperienced Arkansas State squad. If this game were played late in the year, the margin would be a lot lower, but in the 1st game of the season, Oregon will rip these guys a new one and should win be 7 or 8 touchdowns as crazy as that sounds.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State vs. Washington
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Pick: San Diego State
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Coach Steve Sarkisian has led the Huskies to back to back winnings seasons, going 7-6 in consecutive years. They come into the 2012 season with high expectations, with sophomore quarterback Keith Price playing behind an offensive line that has three starters returning from last season. Price threw for 3,063 yards and 33 TDs last season as a freshman, and he is expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac 12 this year.
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The Huskies running game takes a hit, as Chris Polk is replaced by a tandem of Jesse Callier and Bishop Sankey. Washington won't have much trouble scoring against a San Diego State team that has some big question marks on the defensive line that has no starters returning from last season. Their secondary will return two starters, safety Nate Berhe and cornerback Leon McFadden, and this should help them stop the bleeding to a certain degree.
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On offense the Aztecs have no shortage of talent, with former Beavers quarterback Ryan Katz coming over in a transfer from Oregon State. They also have one of the best receiving tight ends in the country with Gavin Escobar who caught 51 passes for 780 yards and seven TDs last year. They also have a couple of juniors returning at wide receiver, with Colin Lockett and Dylan Denso.
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The Huskies are a young team with plenty of talent, and while they are likely to get the win here in their season opener, they are giving up a lot of points. I am going to suggest a play on the Aztecs to cover the spread.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio vs. Penn State
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Penn State players and the coaching staff likely can’t wait to get on the field and PLAY, after enduring about 10 months of dealing with the issues and fallout caused by the Jerry Sandusky scandal. However, wanting to get back on the field hardly guarantees success. It’s likely that 107,000 of the Happy Valley faithful will be on hand this Saturday but the Nittany Lions suffered 10 defections (allowed by the NCAA to transfer immediately), including the team’s best offensive player (RB Silas Redd), its best WR and return man (Justin Brown) plus PK and punter Anthony Fera, who was excellent as a freshman in 2011. Coming to town is Ohio U, a school coming off its second-ever 10-win season in 2011. The Bobcats began playing football back in 1894 but prior to the arrival of former Nebraska mentor Frank Solich, the the school had been to just two bowl games in its history (lost both). Solich arrived in Athens prior to the 2005 season and has led the Bobcats to four bowls, finally giving the school it first bowl win last season, 24-23 over Utah St in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. EIGHT starters return on defense (Solich’s teams have allowed 21.3, 23.8 and 22.1 PPG the last three years) and the offense is led by a really a talented QB in Tyler Tettleton, who completed 64.2% for 3,306 yards with 28 TDs and just 10 INTs (added 658 yards rushing plus 10 TDs). This could be a very special year in Athens for this football team (BKB team beat Georgetown two years ago in the 1st round and last year’s team took North Carolina to OT in the Sweet 16) and a win here in not-so Happy Valley would be the perfect way to get it started. Take the points but expect a SU win by the Bobcats.

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami (Ohio) at Ohio StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio St -25FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State coaching debut for Urban Meyer, which has impacted this line by just shy of a touchdown. It's still not enough. After a 6-7 SU ATS season, their first losing year since 1988, consider the Buckeyes to be the bounce back team of the year. With the fact that they are ineligible to compete for the Big Ten Title, Meyer will have them fully pumped for each regular season game. There were dramatic drop offs in both offense and defense last season to an Ohio State team that had just 11 total loses in the previous 6 years. Word from Columbus is that this team will physically resemble the sharply cut lines of Meyer's Florida teams following their huge commitment to strength and conditioning in the off season. 10 returning defensive starters and QB Braxton Miller running the spread offense leaves little doubt about the type of opener it will be for the Buckeyes. Miami is a nice little MAC team who may challenge Ohio for division superiority, but today, they are simply at the wrong place at the wrong time. Watch the Buckeyes Steamroll them into submission with a high scoring victory that makes a major statement that the Buckeyes are back!
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Northwestern at SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Northwestern -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither of these teams has rewarded their backers of late. Northwestern is 9-17 ATS L 2Y, while Syracuse is 12-20 ATS home L 5Y. Each of these teams is among the least experienced in their respective leagues and there is continuing concern about a Northwestern defense that has allowed more than 28 PPG and more than 400 yds. each of the last 2 seasons. But the Syracuse defense had a major decline from 19-29 points last season and could be equally bad. That leaves a dominant edge to the Wildcat offense with a relatively unproven but greatly hyped QB Colter running the attack. But are you really ready to back a team coached by HC Fitzgerald in this role? He is 7-20 ATS as favorite in his 6 years at the helm.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshall vs. West VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Marshall +24.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My knee jerk reaction is Marshall as rivalry underdog. I watched most of last year’s contest between these two that ended 15 minutes early with West Virginia leading 34-13. Their offense looked like a knife going through hot butter. It will be better this year with Heisman hopeful QB Smith in the second year of HC Holgorsen’s up tempo attack. They averaged 347 YPG in the air last season. Marshall QB, Cato, has little ability to maintain pace. The margin of victory in this series approaches 30 PPG. It’s a bad omen for the Herd who has one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the NCAA. Since 2005, Marshall stands 12-23 ATS in the role of road dog, including 3-7 ATS in the tenure of HC Holliday, the former WVU assistant coach.
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Southern Miss vs. NebraskaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Southern Miss +20FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The linemaker and public alike must believe Southern Miss will fall of the map following their 12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS season. After all, gone is highly successful HC Fedora who produced 4 highly successful offensive seasons with a balanced attack that scored 30+ PPG including 37 PPG LY. Welcome New HC Ellis Johnson, the well-traveled DC who spent the last 4 years creating an outstanding South Carolina defense. With an experienced staff, including former Head Caches Ricky Bustle and DC Tommy West, Ellis should transition better than most expect to the culture of Hattiesburg which has long produced a winning tradition. Nebraska made their own transition to the Big 10 last season, posting a 9-4 SU but 4-8 ATS log. Eventually Nebraska will again challenge for division superiority in the Big 10. But it may take a while for QB Martinez and RB Burkhead to operate behind a revamped OL that could have trouble taking advantage of a rebuilding Southern Miss. front 7 defense. Never easy to favor a new coach and quarterback in their first game on the road, but this line is overinflated. Please also consider that Nebraska HC, Bo Pelini has a 2-8 ATS record as double digit home favorite.

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan vs. Illinois
Play: Under 49.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Weather Alert - Western Michigan at Illinois My first weather Alert release goes here as the Broncos pay a visit to take on the Fighting Illini. Strong play on the Under here today as the forecast calls for the leftover from Tropical storm Isaac to hit Memorial Stadium with Showers and thundershowers in the morning, then overcast during the afternoon with steady rain - a thundershower is possible. Humid. High 83F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch. Plus these trends listed below only adds to a lower scoring game in this spot. Under is 4-0 in Fighting Illini last 4 home games. Under is 7-0 in Fighting Illini last 7 games overall. Under is 6-0 in Fighting Illini last 6 non-conference games. Under is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 vs. MAC.

Bryan PowerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshall vs. West Virginia
Pick: West VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Though they have struggled a bit to create any kind of first half margin in two of the three previous meetings, West Virginia has had no real issue beating up on in-state rival Marshall in this battle for the "Friends of the Coal Bowl" trophy as they've beaten the Thundering Herd all 11 times they've met - and done so by an average of 29 PPG. With a bye on deck and only James Madison (FCS) after that, Marshall should have WVU's full attention. And this is a Mountaineers team that has won eight straight home openers by an average of 28 PPG.
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Big things are expected in Morgantown from second year head coach Dana Holgorsen as his team makes the move to the Big 12 in 2012. The conference will certainly be tougher, but the non-conference schedule is not particularly challenging. WVU's offense is going to be very good as the return eight starters from a group that averaged 37.6 PPG last year, including QB Geno Smith. In the Orange Bowl blowout of Clemson, Smith passes for over 400 yards and 6 TDs.
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Keep in mind that last year's 34-13 final in favor of West Virginia is a bit misleading as the game was called with 11 minutes to go due to severe weather. Marshall has lost 14 in a row to ranked opponents. This should be a very easy win for the Mountaineers.

Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame vs. Navy
Play: Notre Dame -14.5
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This one goes in Dublin,Ireland and the Irish have 14 returning starters and Brian Kelly may very well have a legitimate top 20 offense and defense and the most talented Notre Dame team since 2006 to work with it.Unfortunately the Navy Program may be the very first to finally lose to Army.Take Notre Dame to get your Saturday started with a freeplay winner.