Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Troy -6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Troy Trojans according to my records suffered quite possibly the most attrition in the nation from injuries last year. Three projected starters went down early and six key backups soon followed. For a team that returned just 13 starters from the prior season the results were disastrous. But the good news it that the Trojans were able to build up their depth because of the injuries, and the team returns 15 starters this year including starting QB Corey Robinson. Until last season's disaster Troy produced ATS years of 7-5-1, 8-3 and 7-5 the last three times they returned their starting quarterback. This year they return 9 offensive starters and in those three seasons they had just 7, 5 and 7 returning offensively. After averaging over 30 points for four straight seasons we expect this team to have a vast improvement offensively.
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The last two years these two teams have played games decided by a single point, so you know Larry Blakeney will not overlook the Blazers. Last years 3-9 mark was the worst season in his 21 year coaching history.
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UAB has a new coach this year as Garrick McGee takes over for Neil Callaway who produced a 18-42 record in his five year stint. McGee has a history as an offensive coordinator and he's looking to turn around a scoring unit that hasn't produced 28 ppg in any season the last seven years. On the flip side the Blazers have permitted 31 points or more in five straight seasons. With just four starters returning to that stop unit it could get even worse for the Blazers. Keep in mind they had at least 7 defensive starters returning the last four years. The defense permitted 38, 31, 35, 56 and 59 points the final five games last season.
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Despite the two nail biters the last couple meetings these teams have different pedigrees. UAB hasn't had a winning season since 2004 and they bring in a new head coach, two new coordinators and a new system. Troy is a deep team with 47 upperclassmen looking to put last season's rare losing year in the past. Troy had previously won eight games or more in five straight seasons. After suffering crippling injuries a season ago we look for Troy to make a statement here. It wouldn't surprise us to see the Trojans go off at a 7 point favorite.
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Colorado State +6.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado has won the last two meetings with Colorado State by double digits, but I'm expecting a much tighter contest this time around. Prior to the last two meetings, Colorado State had either won or lost by 3 points in 8 of 11 meetings.
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The Buffaloes won last season's meeting 28-14 but only led by 7 in the 4th quarter. I don't believe they have enough playmakers to pull away in this year's meeting. It really hurts that they lost wide receiver Paul Richardson to an ACL injury. He was expected to be their best playmaker.
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Colorado State was better than last season's 3-9 record showed as it suffered four losses by seven points or less (three by three points). With 15 starters back, I'm expecting to see a few more wins out of the Rams in 2012.
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Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with at least 6 more starters returning than their opponent, provided it is the first of month of the season, are 46-16 ATS since 1992. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have only lost by an average of 0.3 points.
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The Buffaloes have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games, and I expect this trend to continue.
John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame at Navy
Play: Notre Dame
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5* graded play on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as they take on the Navy Midshipmen set to start at 9:00 PM ET, September 1, 2012. This game will be taking place in Dublin Ireland and based on published reports there will be 33,000 Irish fans making the trip to see this game. I dont think there is another team in amateur or pro sports that could match the ferocious loyalty of the Irish fans.
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Notre Dame had better put in a dominating performance in this game as their schedule does not get any easier. They will face five teams that are currently in the Top-10 with games at No. 13 Michigan State September 15, home versus No. 8 Michigan September 22, home versus No. 21 Stanford, at No. 4 Oklahoma October 27, and the season finale at No. 1 USC November 24. Sandwiched in this massive schedule is home tilt versus Miami (Fla) October 6, another home game versus BYU October 20. So, arguably, this will be one of the easier opponents, but still formidable, and one they must defeat confidently and with excellent execution on both sides of the ball.
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The line for this game opened with Notre Dame installed as 19 point favorites, but the public has jumped on Navy and steadily moved this line to 16 points with some shops moved to 15 points. At 15 points this play on Notre Dame represents an excellent opportunity. The betting flows have been mostly equal with some very large bets coming up now on Notre Dame, so I believe that 15 points will be the floor for this game.
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The OVER for this game opened at 58 points and the UNDER has been bet consistently with most shops now showing a 56 point line. This move is in large part due to the belief that travel and subsequent jet lag will slow both teams offenses. Whatever the reason, the fact that 73% of all best made at the 12 betting houses I monitor is beginning to reveal some irrational exuberance for the UNDER play. As many of you already know from seasons past that whenever the percentage of best made exceeds 75% that a contrarian play siding with the Book is a strong opportunity. So, I do like the OVER in this game.
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Returning Starters
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Early in the College Football season, the return of key personnel along the offensive line and the quarterback provide that team with a significant advantage against an opponent that is in the so-called re-tooling season. The Irish return eight offensive starters from their 8-5 record in 2011. However, the arrest of quarterback Tommy Rees has allowed sophomore Andrew Hix to take over under center for the Irish. For any other team, this would be a catastrophic loss, but the only playmaker lost from last year?s season was wide receiver Michael Floyd.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I strongly believe that the Irish have one of the most vastly underrated running backs in the nation with the return of Cierre Wood, but will be missed for the first two games due to suspension. He gained 1,102 rushing yards and had nine touchdowns. The success of the Irish offensive scheme, once he returns, will coincide with his abilities to run the ball and that has very little to do with who is under center. The Irish offensive line is one of the best in the country and they have the cohesiveness to be able to run and zone block successfully for whoever is in the backfield.
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The Irish SecondaryFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Irish were very weak against the pass last season, but had been improving in the second half. They lost three players in the secondary, but still have their defensive leader Manti Teo, who had 128 tackles last season. Although, he cannot cover wide receivers, he and the Irish defensive front and linebackers will be much improved tackling in space and will get far more pressure and quarterback sacks this season. In 2011, they ranked 80th in the FBS in sack percentage at just 4.69% of opponent pass plays runs. Moreover, they ranked 155th in the FBS with opponents throwing an interception on 0.99% of pass plays run. These numbers will be vastly better in 2012.
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Simulator ProjectionsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by 17 or more points. It further projects that the Irish have an ever higher probability of scoring more than 28 points in this game. In past games, they have gone 9-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 74-37 ATS since 1992 when scoring more than 28 point sin a game. Take Notre Dame.
Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulsa at Iowa St.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Iowa St.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's no surprise to see Iowa State installed as a dog in this opener as they puppied up in 10 of 11 lined regular-season games in 2011. And that suits us just fine as the Cyclones are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home openers while the Golden Hurricane are just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in road openers since 1995. In fact, Tulsa has won just 5 of 32 lid-lifters since 1980 so don?t be surprised to see this line take a bit of a roller-coaster ride and find the Cyclones favored by kickoff. We?ll still side with the hosts as the Hurricane replaces QB G.J. Kinne, who started 83 games over the past four seasons, with Nebraska transfer Cody Green. To take the pressure off Green, look for Tulsa to rely on a pair of RBs who each tallied over 800 yards on the ground last season. However, that plays right into the Cyclones funhouse as they boast the best linebacker duo in the land with A.J. Klein and Jake Knott combining for 231 tackles in 2011. We also want no part of a Hurricane team with a Green quarterback on the road that turns into a tropical depression at the sight of a Big 12 foe (0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS since 1999). Were taking a ride on the Cyclone. We recommend a 1-unit play on Iowa State.
Charlie ScottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan vs. IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Western Michigan +10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't mistake this for a FREE Play opinion game, This is 1 of my Better Bets of the Day ! Illinois replaces the Zook and brings in new Head Coach Tim Beckman from Toledo. Bringing in a new Head Coach means the players have to learn new schemes on offense and defense and basically become fluent in a foreign language in an offseason. Illinois QB Scheelhasse while mobile, struggles in the passing game, and remember Toledo loved to throw the ball last year under Beckman. On the other side of the ball Western Michigan, while not a National brand name these guys can play. This is W Michigans Coach Cubit's 8th Season there and possibly his best team so far. Last Year W Michigan lost to Purdue in the Little Ceasars Bowl 32-37. This Yr W Michigan has their best OL and a competent D- Line. So this won't be a Non Conference game where the Big 10 school just pushes the little Mac school all over the field. W Michigan Sr QB Carder can play and their offense can score.
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Hawaii vs. Southern California
Pick: Southern California
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This line has jumped a full four points since opening, but guess what, I still see value with the Trojans, even as they lay six touchdowns.
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Hawaii is more or less in rebuilding mode, and for the first time in a long time, the Warriors are lacking an experienced signal-caller. While there's still plenty of talent at the skill positions on the offensive side of the football, this is very much going to be a work-in-progress in the early stages of the season. Obviously, that doesn't bode well as the Warriors prepare to face an absolutely loaded USC squad.
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Remember, two years ago, USC went into Hawaii and survived a wild 49-36 game as a three-touchdown favorite. Things are a little different this time around, as the Trojans boast all of the talent and experience, and no longer have the Bowl ban cloud hanging over them. Keep in mind, that season-opener in Hawaii marked Lane Kiffin's first game at the helm of the Trojans. Love him or hate him, Kiffin is the right man for the job in L.A., and he'll be out to prove it this year.
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He certainly has the team to do it, as weaknesses are few and far between on this squad, and any that exist shouldn't be noticeable against a very green Hawaii squad.
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We really saw the Trojans come into their own down the stretch last season, beating the number in six of their final seven games. They outgained four opponents by at least 176 total yards over that stretch.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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QB Matt Barkley is a bonafide Heisman Trophy candidate here in 2012, after a breathtaking 2011 season that saw him complete over 69% of his passes for more than 3,500 yards, 39 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. Those numbers will be tough to top, but I'm confident he'll put an early dent in them on Saturday.
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After going 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS two years ago, Hawaii showed significant regression last season, posting a 6-7 SU and 4-9 ATS record. This is a team that is already looking ahead to the future with a new coaching staff, and plenty of new faces on the field.
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For USC, the future is now, and I don't expect them to call off the dogs until they've built a massive lead on Saturday night. Even at that point, I'm not convinced the Warriors have the horses to sneak through the back door.
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Clemson vs. Auburn
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The Clemson Tigers #14 square off against the Auburn Tigers at the Georgia Dome in this matchup.
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Clemson has a high power offense that scored an average of 33 points per game last season with QB Tajh Boyd leading the charge after throwing for over 4,000 yards and 33 TDs last season. Unfortunately his star receiver Sammy Watkins will not play in this game due to suspension. Watkins was the 2011 SEC Freshman of the Year with over 2,000 all purpose yards and 13 total TDs. He will be sorely missed in this game on the offense and special teams. RB Mike Bellamy is academically ineligible and will not play in this game as well. This will be Clemson's first game since getting embarassed by West Virginiavin last years Orange Bowl 70-33. On defense the team brought in coordinator Brent Venables from Oklahoma to improve the dismal year in 2011 under Kevin Steele that gave up an average of 30 points per game! Clemson was 10-4 last season and 6-2 in the SEC.
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Auburn has a new offensive and defensive coordinator for the 2012 season. The focal point of the offense will be on RB Tre Mason with speedster Onterio McCalebb serving as the 3rd down back. New offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler was the former quarterbacks coach for Tim Tebow and looks to bring that success to Auburn and first time starter QB Kiehl Frazier. Tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen has big play ability and could be a force this season. New defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is the former coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. He has stated that he plans on turning his defensive line loose this season. The team lacks depth at linebacker with 3 veterans and a red shirt freshman looking to lead the charge. The offense averaged 26 points per game scored last season while the defense averaged 29 points given up. Auburn was 8-5 last season and 4-4 in the SEC.
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Clemson is the small favorite in this game despite having a record of 12-34-2 all time vs. Auburn. They will miss big play receiver Watkins however they have plenty of depth at the position to fill the void. Expect Junior DeAndre Hopkins to step up in this game. Both defenses have new coordinators and must adjust to new playbooks. This should result in some blown coverages and mistakes along the way. Expect the explosive Clemson offense to put up 30 plus points in this game. Auburn is a perennial powerhouse football team and will not go lightly in this game. Look for lots of offense in this matchup in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. Take the "Over" to win in a competitive shoot out!
Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Miss vs. Nebraska
Play: Southern Miss +20½
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I like Southern Miss in this spot despite losing their head coach and QB. They have a talented group of RB led by Desmond JOhnson and they run behind an experienced offensive line with 4 starters returning and that's where they can score enough points to cover this large spread vs. Nebraska that was dead last in their conference in tackles for loss and rarely got in the backfield for sacks. They will be better, but not right away and opening up the season against an experienced and talented group won't help them any. The strengths and weaknesses are in the right places for this game.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't get me wrong Nebraska will have success running against Southern MIss 4-2-5 scheme, but not as much as people think. Martinez lacks a passing ability and the offensive line has 3 new starters. The Offensive line is nothing special as far as big time recruits and they won't come together right away. Expect the usual offensive penalties and turnovers that plagued them in years past. Southern Miss has a few ball hawking players and I expect them to get edge pressure from Jamie Collins and play good defense in the red zone and limit the big plays. Bottom line there are not enough minutes for them to cover this spread with both teams taking on the run first approach.
Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clemson vs. Auburn
Pick: Auburn +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. This is a much better Auburn team than the one that got beat by two touchdowns last season. Last year, Auburn had just six starters coming back. They have 15 back in 2012. Look for them to make huge improvements on both sides of the ball, especially their defense, which gets back 9 starters.
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A lot of people are going to look at how Clemson put 624 total yards last year, and expect them to do the same. That isn't going too happen. Clemson will be without one of their most dynamic player in Sammy Watkins. The fact that he isn't playing this game is huge. Watkins had 10 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown, plus 7 rushes for 44 yards in last years win over Auburn. The fact that Auburn doesn't have to game plan around keeping Watkins in check, will allow them to be a lot more effective against the run.
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On the other side of the ball, I expect Auburn to have a lot of success moving the chains. Auburn is going to come into this game extremely motivated after last year's loss and I think that is something you can't overlook.
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Iowa vs. Northern Illinois
Pick Saturday: Iowa -9
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The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the 2012 season way underrated in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 7-6 campaign last season, which was their fewest wins since 2007. I know that the Hawkeyes only return 11 starters this season, but they will have a lot more talent on the field than Northern Illinois Saturday.
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The offense returns six starters, including QB James Vandenburg, who completed 58.7 percent of his passes for 3,022 yards with 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2011. Vandenburg is one of the most underrated signal callers in the entire country, and a future NFL draft pick.
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He welcomes back three of his top four receivers in Keenan Davis (50 receptions, 713 yards, four TD), Kevonte Martin-Manley and TE CJ Fiedorowicz. Iowa always has one of the top offensive lines because head coach Kirk Ferentz is a former OL coach in the NFL. That's why I'm not concerned that they have just two starters and 45 career starts coming back on the O-line.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While the defense brings back only five starters, it does return four of its top players from a year ago. That includes its top two tacklers in junior OLB Christian Kirksey (110 tackles) and junior MLB James Morris (110 tackles). Senior CB Micah Hyde (72 tackles, eight pass break-ups, three INT) and junior FS Tanner Miller (76 tackles, three INT) are back to lead the secondary.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Illinois won the MAC Title last season, but as a result, it comes into 2012 overrated. The Huskies have just 12 starters back, and they lose MAC Player of the Year Chandler Harnish, who led the team in passing (3,216 yards, 28 TD) AND rushing (1,379 yards, 11 TD) last year. This guy is simply irreplaceable.
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The offense has just four starters back in all. Top RB Jasmin Hopkins (956 yards, 15 TD) is gone, stud WR Nathan Palmer (47 receptions, 695 yards, seven TD) has departed, and the Huskies will be breaking in four new starters along the offensive line. They have just 24 career starts returning up front.
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Northern Illinois gave up 30.3 points and 415 total yards per game last season, so the fact that it has eight starters back on defense isn't necessarily a good thing. Plus, the Huskies lose two of their top three tacklers in Pat Schiller (#1 tackler, 115 tackles, 8 for loss) and Jordan Delegal (#3 tackler, 82 tackles, 5.5 for loss). Ron Newcomb (49 tackles, 8 for loss, 4.5 sacks) has departed as well.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa is 7-0 against Northern Illinois all-time, winning by an average of 31 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. MAC opponents. Iowa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Bet Iowa Saturday.
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rutgers vs. TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 48FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Greg Schiano left for the NFL he took six assistants with him, so a laregly new coaching staff takes over in Rutgers. Also gone to the NFL is star WR Mohammed Sanu, so look for the Knights to run the football against a small Tulane defensive front. Curtis Johnson is the new coach in Tulane, so with these teams working on new playbooks, don't look for an offensive show, especially with rain in the forecast left over from the East Coast hurricane. Play Rutgers/Tulane under the total.
Rob VincelettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toledo vs. ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toledo +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These plays have been over .500 every season the last 7 years. Today we start them off with Toledo. Toledo looks to be solid on offense once again this season and will take on an average looking Arizona squad that is 2-12 ats as a home favorite from -10.5 to -14. There is also a solid week 1 Power System in this one that plays against opening week double digit favorites that won 5 or less games last season, vs an opponent that won 4 or more games. This system has won 25 of the last 32. Look for Toledo to be competitive in this one. Take the points with Toledo.
Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame at NavyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, the Irish will be missing some key parts in Saturday's opener in Dublin, but the team has had plenty of time to prepare for the Middies with their "replacements" getting all the snaps. There are two big situations in this one as far as I'm concerned. First of all, I don't believe QB Rees & RB Wood are worth 9 points with this much time to prepare. Remember, in last year's blowout win, the Irish were a 23 point favorite over Navy. What matters more to me are the missing starting receivers for Navy. Why would receivers matter on an offense that runs the ball? Because downfield receiver blocking in an option-based offense are what takes a 4 or 5-yard gain and turns it into 15-yard gains and breakaways. And let's not forget scheduling. The Irish have taken part of every fall practice preparing for the Navy offense. Normally they play Navy later in the season and have just a few days to work on the unique offensive sets. I believe that's a big part of the handicap in this year's meeting. And for those reasons, I'm recommending a play on Notre Dame on Saturday morning.
Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sure, the Phillies are at the bottom of the National League East and are just playing out the string in this, an immensely disappointing and markedly unexpected season for them. one has to acknowledge the presence of the Phillies' starting pitcher in this contest. Cliff Lee has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball over the past four seasons. Even in this, a distinct down year for him, his earned-run average is still a very solid and respectable 3.67. That's over one run better than Atlanta starter Mike Minor, who totes a mediocre 4.71 ERA into this contest. There is an appreciable difference in quality between Lee and Minor, giving an interested bettor plenty of ammunition if he or she wishes to pick Philadelphia. It’s a close call, but the sense here is that Lee will dominate the Braves and give Philadelphia a win in the midst of Atlanta's playoff push. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
Kyle HunterFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas vs. LSUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: North TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas returns a lot of players from a team that was much improved last year. The Mean Green won 3 of their last 5 games last year. LSU is the top ranked team in the nation coming into the season, but Les Miles' teams don't run the score up as often as many of the other top ranked teams. Miles is generally content to let his second and third stringers get a lot of opportunity in the second half of a game like this. Clearly, if LSU keeps the foot on the gas they will win by more than 44 points. However, I'm willing to guess that they let off the gas a bit and North Texas picks up a sloppy cover.